Predictive Operations

Solution Whitepaper
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Contents
1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 4
1.1 Predictive Operations Introduction ................................................................................................... 4
1.2 Predictive Operations Technology .................................................................................................... 4
2 Predictive Operations Solution .......................................................................................................... 5
2.1 How Is Predictive Operations Different From Standard Monitoring Processes .......................... 6
2.2 Predictive Operations – Functional Architecture ............................................................................. 6
2.2.1 Predictive Operations – Project Deployment Phase ....................................................................... 7
2.2.2 Predictive Operations – Project Execution Phase ............................................................................ 8
2.3 Service Packages .................................................................................................................................. 9
3 Predictive Operations Delivery Model ............................................................................................... 9
3.1 Deployment Model Via GDC................................................................................................................ 9
3.2 Deployment Model Via Nokia/ Partner Regional Data Center .................................................... 10
4 Predictive Operations Trial .............................................................................................................. 10

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1. Introduction
1.1 Predictive Operations Introduction
Most telecom operators run network and service operations on a real-time basis. This means you still need
2 – 48 hours to fix a network or service issue affecting subscribers. Nokia is going a step further by
offering Predictive Operations as a managed service from the Nokia Managed Services portfolio. Predictive
operations will identify and recommend a solution to fix developing network issues before these cause
degradation or failure in the network.
Predictive operations service will help telecom operators detect anomalies uniquely and much earlier than
they currently do in their operational environments.

1.2 Predictive operations Technology

Predictive operations solution is based on a unique data-modeling technology that provides a basis for
analyzing the dynamics of key performance indicators (KPIs) within complex systems and processes.
The predictive engine module detects anomalies in data sequences. In most cases the anomalies which are
detected predict problems related to the KPI days before they actually happen. These predicted problems
usually take the form of exceeding an upper Limit or lower Limit set for the KPI (which can be static or
dynamic). Traditional quality-control technologies, like OSS and NMS, usually use such upper and lower
limits to identify problems related to the KPI as they happen. In one example use case, such an early
detection can give the maintenance engineer an "in- advance" indication that the network element is
about to fail, and enables fixing it ahead of time, avoiding failures and shut downs.
The predictive engine module learns and models the data of each individual source (e.g. network element),
and for each of the KPIs separately. Each network element is monitored against its own specific behavior,
and a data model is tailored to each component individually. This allows effective prediction in real-life
networks, in which each network-element behaves differently depending on its own configuration and its
own specific environment details.

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The predictive engine module requires from the user a well defined period of time during which the data is
considered to be "normal", so that the system will be able to learn its patterns. Using this information, the
engine generates a reference tree that represents the "normal" behavior of the KPI.
The predictive engine models and monitors individual KPI values as well as KPI patterns, and therefore can
automatically identify changes in a model even if the KPI maintains its regular values, yet begins to follow
different patterns.
The predictive engine assigns grades to the patterns followed by the monitored sequence. The grades
provide measures of similarity between the reference data model (training dataset) and the monitored
data. More precisely, these grades are estimates of the relative likelihood that the monitored window
belongs to the same population as the reference data.
The predictive engine allows adaptive periodic learning of the modeled process; this ability is of
importance in live networks which continuously change over time.

2. Predictive Operations Solution

The Predictive Operations service will generate predictive alerts based on KPI’s /counter degradation.
Further on correlation of predictive alerts and application of RCA rules by the operations team these
predictive alerts will be made actionable.
A predictive alert along with degradation or failure cause and a suitable recommendation will be sent to
the Telco as a work order via a email to resolve the issue before it causes a degradation or failure of a
service in the Telco network. The Telco’s operations team will be responsible for the final action and
resolution.

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2.1 How is predictive operations different from standard monitoring processes

Predictive Operations is powered by a predictive engine which spots anomalies in patterns. Each KPI or
counter has a pattern e.g. the power supply to a base station. If an anomaly occurs in a patter a predictive
alert goes off. So here you see real-time operations, looking at thresholds of KPIs, With Predictive
operations we look at the patterns within those thresholds and anomalies occurring within those
thresholds. This means we get a lot more information, but it would be too complex for the human mind to
monitor all this. This is why we use a predictive engine which can spot anomalies and correlate these based
on machine learning. We designed the models and processes. This means you can really make the most of
the big data.

2.2 Predictive Operations – Functional Architecture

The figure below represents the functional view of the predictive operations solution. KPI and counter
data will be captured on an hourly basis from the CSP’s network. This data will be taken on an hourly basis
either from the CSP’s performance management system or from the Network OSS / EMS.
The predictive alerts generated will be diagnosed by the Nokia operations team and a manual work order
will be created and sent as an email to the CSP’s NOC. The work order will have details on the KPIs which
are degraded, the diagnosis based on which specific counter are pegging, and a suitable recommendation
to resolve the issue.
Work orders will be generated based on the correlation and RCA done on the predictive alerts by the Nokia
Predictive operations team.
Only Nokia predictive operations teams will have access to the predictive engine for model generation,
monitoring, configuration, correlation, filtering etc.
There will be separate instances per CSP – with separate hardware, separate predictive engine, separate
application and database instance.

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@ work order Actionable Alert

Trouble Ticketing CSP NOC

RCA

Resource
TT’s KPIs
Predictive
Operations Predictive
Performance Alert
Fault Management Management
Threshold
Alarms Network KPIs/ Counters
Network Performance
Alarms Counters
OSS/ EMS Layer

Radio Access Radio Access Core Transport

( 2G) (3G) ( CS, PS ) ( IP, MPLS)

Resource Layer Nokia Operations

2.2.1 Predictive Operations – Project Deployment phase

The predictive operations deployment phase is split in four phases:
Core and background colors:

• Data Collection
R 18 R0 R 104 R 168 R 216
G 65 G 201 G 113 G 187 G 217
B 145 B 255 B 122 B 192 B 218

• Data Loading
• Predictive operation engine configuration and
• Generate predictive alerts

As the KPI’s and counters get selected shortlisted and agreed with the customer, the next step is to make
these KPIs and counters available to the predictive engine for processing. The data is made available to
the staging server for extraction, transformation and loading into the database. The data is required in csv
format. The data is extracted from the csv file checked for integrity and transformed to be loaded into
the database tables for processing. The engine is then configured for training and grading. Training is a
process when based on historical data the engine creates a data model to learn the various data
sequences in KPI and counter behavior. Then the predictive engine consumes new data for grading these
KPIs and counters. The grading is a process where new values of KPI’s and counters are monitored against

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the learnt data to find if the new sequence of data is different from the learnt data. Higher the grades,
more significant are the anomaly in behavior of the KPI. Next important and significant predictive alerts
are delivered to the operations team for diagnosis and defining a recommended action.

2.2.2 Predictive Operations – Project execution phase

The predictive operations execution phase has been split into four phases:
 Learning phase
 Base lining phase
 Proof of accuracy phase and
 Actionize phase

Phase 1 – Learning phase: In the learning phase. This phase will be for a period of 30 to 45 days. During
the learning phase predictive alerts will be generated based on the KPIs/counters which are being
monitored. Based on the alerts generated the KPI/counter list will be refined. These triggers will be
classified into service degrading alerts which require network optimization effort and service failure alerts
which require network operations effort. Also based on the triggers root cause analysis (RCA) rules will be
developed to identify the degradation/ failure cause and recommend a suitable action. The predictive
alert along with the failure cause and recommended action will be fed into a knowledge database for
further reference.
Phase 2 - Base lining phase: This phase will be for a period of 30 to 45 days. During the base lining phase,
actionable alerts will be tested against real network and service degradation, and the knowledge database
and RCA rules further enhanced.
Phase 3 - Proof of Accuracy phase: This will be run for a period of 30 days. Proof of accuracy of predictive
triggers and work orders sent to the CSP’s operations team will be established. Proof of accuracy phase
will be run for a month every year. This will help re-establish the CSP’s confidence in the value the solution
is providing. During this duration predictive alerts will be sent but no actions will be taken by the CSP
operations team.
Phase 4 – Execution phase will be ongoing for the duration of the contract. During the execution phase,
predictive alert along with the failure cause and recommended action actionable alerts / work orders will
be send to the operations team as work orders via email. The CSP will be responsible for taking action and
resolution based on the work order details.

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2.3 Service Packages
Service Packages for predictive operations are based on the understanding that each of these packages
can be deployed and sold independently. Eight service packs are being defined in phase1. Service packs
are a combination of technology (2G and 3G), network domain (radio and core) and service (voice and
data).
Each service pack will have a set of entities (Network elements) and KPIs. Predictive triggers will be based
on the monitoring of these KPIs.
LTE service pack is on the roadmap and will be available end of Q2, 2014. Release dates for VoLTE will be
formalized in some more time. Transport Network (IP, SDH, DWDM) is not in scope.

3. Predictive Operations Delivery Model

The predictive operations solution will be delivered via two deployment models. The solution will be
deployed, operated and managed remotely from Nokia GDC location, or the solution will be deployed in a
Nokia/ partner data center in the region and operated and managed remotely from Nokia GDC location.

3.1 Deployment model via GDC

In the Nokia GDC based deployment model the application and resources will be remote. The Nokia GDC
location will be India or Portugal. The CSP has to provide remote access to their OSS data. The KPI data will
be accessed remotely and actionable predictive alerts will be sent as work orders to the CSP operations
team.

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3.2 Deployment Model via Nokia/ Partner regional data center
In the second model the predictive operations engine will be deployed in the region in a Nokia or Nokia
partner managed data center. The operations and management will be done remotely from Nokia GDC
locations. For CSP’s who have restriction in data transfer to remote locations due to security or regulatory
requirements the OSS data will remain with the region. Predictive alerts from the engine will be sent to the
teams managing operations remotely.

4. Predictive Operations Trial

As part of customer trials Nokia Managed Services team plan to provide predictive alerts based on analysis
of 3 months historical data followed by analysis of near real time data provided hourly. The trial would be
for duration of 12 to 14 weeks. Data access and availability has to be in Nokia, GDC in Noida. The
successful outcome of the trial is to lead towards a predictive operations solution sale and get a public
reference. The trial will be done for Nokia equipment in both Radio and Core network. The trial can be

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done for 2G and 3G technology for both voice and data service. The trial will be done for a limited number
of cell sites (radio) and core equipment from the customer network.
The objective of the trial will be to provide the following:
Predictive alerts on voice and data service on 2G/ 3G RAN and Core network KPI degradation. KPI
degradation will be predicted and validated using history data.
Predictive alerts on voice and data service on 2G/ 3G RAN and Core network and correlate/ validate with
actual operational degradation / failure in the network.
Based on predictive alerts Nokia will provide a diagnosis and recommendation to fix the issue before it
causes a degradation or failure in the network.
The success criteria of the trial will be based on the following parameters:
Quality of Prediction: These are the percentage of our predictions which are true positives. This will be
based on validation from actual KPI degradation and validation from operations information including
trouble tickets.
Time ahead of degradation: These will be based on availability of predictive alert number of hours before
KPI degradation and availability of predictive alert number of hours before detected by CSP operations
team.
Fixability of Predictions: These will be based on resolution of predictive alerts based on symptoms,
diagnosis and recommendation which will be sent as a work order to the CSP.
Input requirements include:
 KPI / Counter data availability for the last 3 months for machine learning
 KPI / Counter data availability on hourly basis for online analysis
 KPI / Counter data granularity at sector level and hourly basis
 KPI / Counter data availability in CSV format
 Data Source: Network OSS – Nokia NetAct
 Data required for 2G/3G Radio and Core for both voice and data traffic
 Network topology information
 Network alarm data last 3 months
The predictive operations solution will provide top xx predictive alerts per day as output.
Data Access and Connectivity:
The trial will be run from the predictive operations solution deployed in Nokia GDC in Noida, India. The
customer has to provide remote access to their OSS/EMS systems to query and extract the required KPIs/
counters for monitoring. Access to online data at hourly interval in Nokia GDC in Noida India will also be
required.
Some boundary conditions for the trial include:
 Data access to be provided to Nokia team in Global Delivery Center in Noida, India
 Data for only 2G/ 3G RAN and Core Network considered for trial
 Data from only Nokia network elements considered for trial
 Agree on list of KPIs before we start the trial
 As there are limited resources, any dates for the customer trial have to be discussed and agreed with
the Nokia GS MS team before committing to CSP

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