CHAPTER … 9

PUBLIC TRANSPORT

"It's not that I'm so smart,

It's just that I stay with problems longer."

… Albert Einstein (1879-1955)

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 9.1 Current Concept

In the present infinite reality, urban, regional and National Development Frameworks
have become less isolated and more universal. Transport systems have more than
ever; serve as the vital link in the New Wave of integrated communication, economic
and social development. This sectoral integration will bound to result in a global
interface of people and economic bases in a mixed-mode; as compared to the "lateral"
view of yesteryear. Effective, efficient and highly productive transport such as Urban
Mass Transit, Regional and National transport infrastructure and facilities, goods
movement systems, and multi-modal integration will be the bridge that allows
economic and technological advances to benefit all of mankind.

Thus, it is imperative that a managerial traffic engineer preferably should have the
global perspective and experience to provide a range of services in transport planning
and management that will accomplish the singular, as well as, multi-sectoral needs of
the new integrated approaches required now and in the future. Our international staff
of planners, engineers, economists, and financial analysts should be prepare to solve
our national transport requirements and further be technically helpful to, at-least the
Third World Countries, whose traffic problems, economy, human psychology and
environmental infrastructure is more or less similar.

9.2 The Role of Bus Service

The degree to which buses are used is in-depended on a number of demographic,

land-use and economic factors, as the characteristics of the bus service and competing
transport modes. Western European experience can be used to predict future trends for
developing world cities, and early evidence from various third world countries
provides some qualification.

In most part of Western Europe, the general perception is that bus patronage, and
service provision, have declined as economic growth has occurred. This has been a
general pattern since the50s, as rising ownership first took passengers from buses,
then added to congestions on the roads to make services less reliable. A "vicious
circle" thus developed, in which operators sought to restore profitability by raising
fares (in real; terms) and cutting service levels, these in turn caused further declines in
demand. Even in Western Europe, this stereotype is not always true, as the recent
effects of travel-cards and minibus service innovation in Britain testify, and in
developing countries it is of far less immediate relevance, given the low levels of car
ownership generally found.

For longer-run forecasting, however, the parallel may be relevant. As the more
successful developing countries experience rising car ownership, will the decline
affect bus service? To answer this question, one must look further back, at earlier
growth in bus use. Although the peak of use in Western Europe was associated with
somewhat extreme conditions, notably rationing of cars and their fuels, bus use had
been rising steadily before that date, in parallel with pre-war car ownership growth.
Particularly rapid growth in bus use was found in these areas where full employment
has been restored after severe unemployment over many years.

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In analyzing bus use in a country or, preferably, a city for which specific trends can be
identified, one must first distinguish between total bus trips rate per head of
population (measured most easily in annual form, by dividing total bus trips by
population served). The former will be affected initially be changes in total city
population. Thus, even with a constant trip rate per head, a rising total demand of
about 5 percent per annum may be expected in many developing country cities from
population growth alone.

The annual trip rate per head typically varies between about 100 and 300 (or more in
some cases) associated with the following factors:

The levels of service and capacity available: where provision of buses is very low
relative to population (around 0.1 to 0.3 buses per 1,000 people), it is unlikely that
capacity will meet potential demand, especially at peak times. The trip rate is thus
constrained to the loadings carried, and as capital investment in vehicles rises, It
will also rise.

The level of economic activity: As more people are employed, they need to travel
to and fro work and their incomes also permit other journeys. The "formal sector'
activity rate, i.e. the proportion of the total population in some form of regular
employment (full-time or part-time) is a good proxy for this, ranging from about
15 percent to about 40 percent from poorer (e.g. some African cities) to highly
industrialized and prosperous cities (e.g. Bombay, Karachi, etc.) which are
growing rapidly. Bombay, at 25 percent, is probably a typical case.

The cost of fares relative to income: where incomes are low, even modest bus
fares may represent a large part of the user's income up to 15 percent or more in
some Pakistani cities, for example. Under such conditions, few "discretionary"
journeys, other than the journey to work, will be made. As incomes rise relative to
fares, more journeys can be made.

Provision of competing modes: these may include cycles, various forms of Para
transit, and rail (which should all be included in any overall estimates of pubic
transport provision and use). The more sophisticated forms of Para transit and
especially rail will depend upon a growth in income and capital investment.

Extent of private car ownership and use: in many country cities, the average
level of car ownership may be very low, around 0.01 to 0.05 per head (i.e. 100 to
20 people per car).

In more prosperous industrialized cities, it may rise to about 0.1 (one car to every 10
people), at which stage significant effects on bus use and traffic congestion are likely,
setting in hand the "vicious circle" effect mentioned earlier.

It will be seen that the first four factors above imply a trend of rising public transport
provision and use incomes and investment increase, only the last offsetting this. Up to
a certain level, public transport use and car ownership (over a city as a whole) will
both rise with average incomes. Evidence from a variety of cities in Pakistan, India
and other countries, suggest that this level lies at about 0.05 to 0.1 cars per head, a bus
service provision for equivalent public transport capacity) of about 0.7 to 1.0 buses

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per 1,000 population (being adequate to most peak level demands), and a fare level at
which the journey to and from work by bus represents about 5 percent or less of
income. Under these conditions, the bus trip rate per head is typically between 200
and 300 per annum.

The form of city will also be critical. A low-density, dispersed city will suffer less
from congestion and impose fewer constraints on car use. Hence, car use may rise
more rapidly with income and effects on public transport use will occur earlier: this is
the case in Pakistan. However, in high-density, congested cities, car use will be
constrained in any case by congestion, and perhaps also through deliberate
government policies to limit car imports and impose a high tax (Hong Kong,
Singapore). In so far as such cities may also be highly industrialized, with high
activity rates, very high public transport use levels may develop, up to about 400 per
head per annum.

The majority of developing countries cities are laid some way below this point. They
may expect a substantial rise in public transport use per head as incomes grow,
provided that investment is directed towards fleet expansion, and real fares are kept
down through operational efficiency. Even at the higher car ownership levels, decline
in public transport use is by no means a foregone conclusion. Public transport may no
longer have a "captive" market but, by offering the right quality of service, it may
sustain a high level of demand. This will require high labor productivity (preferably
through reducing workshop and administrative staff rather than the quantity or quality
of service provided), traffic management and bus priority measures to aid reliability,
and greater attention to marketing by the operators.

9.3 Estimating Public Transport Demand

Methods for estimating travel demand are largely derived for the models developed
from urban land-use transportation studies (LUTS). These were first carried out in
North America in the 50s, and in most cases were concerned with highway planning
in large cities. Subsequent applications in U.K and continental Europe were also
concerned initially with highway planning, but in more recent years elements of
public transport planning, which had been lacking in some of the original American
work, have been introduced. The principles of the travel demand models (as used in a
typical urban LUTS) are outlined, before going on to consider how far these may be
appropriate for use in developing countries.

9.4 The Conventional Four-Stage Process

The CONVENTIONAL process of travel demand forecasting carries an underlying

assumption that one can identify four separate decisions made by the traveler:

 Whether to travel
 Where to travel to
 What mode of travel to use
 What route to follow

This leads to the specification of four separate stages of analytical transport

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  Trip generation
 Trip distribution
 Modal choice
 Trip assignment

It is not suggested that these four stages are independent, nor they are carried out in a
predetermined order. However, it can be shown to be by no means in appropriate
separation for a conventional LUTS, and it provides a useful basis for more complex
model structures, which turn out to be combinations and developments of these four
stages.

The process is initiated by partitioning the study area into zones, the number, size and
arrangement of which are a function of data availability, level of detail required and
purpose for which the model is to be used. In addition, it is necessary to define the
time period for which trips are to be estimated (typically trips per week, per day or
during the peak period) an sometimes to estimate separately trip patterns for different
trip purposes (work, education, shopping, recreation, etc.)

9.4.1 Trip Generation

This stage involves estimating the number of trips produced by, and attracted to, each
zone. It was noted in the early LUTS that the majority of trips are home-based, in the
sense of having either their origin or destination at home. This led to the practice of
estimating trip production in terms of household characteristics. Typical variables
would include:
 Family size
 Age/sex structure
 Family income
 Employment status
 Car ownership

At the other end of the journey, trip attractions were estimated in terms of land-use
characteristics, for example:
 Offices
 Industry
 Commerce
 Shops
 Recreation areas

and the intensity of their use, as characterized by, for example:

 Floor-space
 Number of employed persons
 Financial turnover

The normal approach is to use regression analysis to establish relationships between

trip productions, attractions and the characteristics listed above.

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 9.4.2 Trip Distribution

This stage estimates which of the trips produced by each zone are attracted to which
specific destination zone. It results in a "matrix" or "array" of trips between every pair
of zones in the study area. The most common form of model used here is the Gravity
Model, so called because in its original and simplest formulation it is exactly
analogous to Newton's law of gravitation. The model has three components: trip
productions and trip attractions, as estimated in the trip generation stage, and a
measure of the difficulty of getting from origin to destination. This last notion of
travel deterrence reflects the fact that people will attempt to minimize the amount of
time, money and effort they devote to travel, subject to being able to carry out their
desired activities. Distance is a common measure to travel deterrence, but more
sophisticated models may incorporate factors such as travel time.

9.4.3 Modal Choice

For any given journey, the traveler may have available a large number of possible
modes, fro example:
Car
Motor Rikshaws (3 or 4 wheel carriage)
Motorcycle
Bus
Train
Slow moving vehicles
Pedal cycle
Walk

In making a choice between the modes, the traveler will have regard to their relevant
characteristics:
Money cost (usually the fare)
Travel time (from real origin to real destination)
Safety/Security
Comfort
Convenience

Modal choice models attempt to establish relationship between mode patronage and
mode characteristics. It will be recognized that some of the characteristics (e.g.
comfort) are not easy to measure, and models typically restrict the relationship to
money cost and travel time. An interesting by-product of these models is that by
comparing choices which people actually make with the relevant money costs and
travel times, it is possible to establish thee trade-off they are making between time and
money. This enables estimates to be made of "values of time" for various trip
purposes, and these values are frequently used in estimating the time-related benefits
of particular transport schemes.

9.4.4 Trip Assignment

The final is of most direct relevance to highway planning for it is within the complex

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road network that the traveler is faced with a large number of alternative routes from
which to choose. However, with the increasing use of minibuses, and methods of
operation, permitting flexible routing, this is also becoming a relevant stage for public
transport planning. Again the assumption is that the traveler attempts to minimize the
effect involved with the journey, and the problem reduces to finding the shortest route
through the network for any given journey, where "shortest" is generally defined in
terms of either time or distance. Care must be taken, with congested networks, to
reflect the fact that as traffic flow increase so traffic speeds decrease. Thus, what was
the shortest path in an uncongested network may not be so in a congested one. This
leads to the development of so-called "capacity-restrained" assignment procedures.

9.5 Data Requirements

A major problem with the application of the methods described above is the extensive
requirement for data. These types of data are needed:

 Existing transport supply (road network, parking provision, public transport

services, costs, etc.);
 Land-use/demographic characteristics;
 Existing travel patterns (numbers of trips by origin, destination, mode,
purpose, time of day, etc.)

These data are first used to establish the relationships mentioned in the four stages
above, the information on existing trip patterns being used to calibrate the methods.
The models can then be used to forecast future trip patterns consequent on changes in
transport supply (new road building, enhanced public transport service, etc.) and/or
changes in land-use and demographic characteristics (population growth, industrial
development, etc.)

In developed countries, existing transport supply is fairly straight forward to specify,

while land-use, demographic information is readily available from consensus. This is
by no means the case in developing countries.

With little control and regulation of transport services, it is not easy to establish the
complete nature of transport supply, and a wider range of services is often available
with extensive use of human and animal systems (e.g. rickshaws and bullock carts) as
well as mechanical ones. Census information is much less comprehensive, if it exists
at all. Even more problematical is the measurement of existing travel patterns. This is
commonly affected by household surveys and traffic counts. Such surveys are difficult
and expensive to mount in developed countries; in developing countries there are
additional problems, such as large household sizes, lower standards of education,
cultural barriers. These and other factors lead to significant under-reporting of trip
rates and thus inaccurate calibration. There is also often a shortage of local skilled
manpower to maintain and up-date the data banks necessary for demand estimation.

9.5.1 Other Obstacles

In addition to the above, other obstacles of adapt collection; developing countries

have a number of characteristics which extends the problems of applying the standard

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four-stage models. A few of these are noted here (without going in details):

Many of the countries of third world are experiencing very rapid changes in levels of
population, income, car ownership, etc. Such rapid changes make it difficult to rely on
the stability of modal relationships over large periods. Thus forecasting for major
infrastructure development becomes somewhat speculative. As already mentioned, a
wider range of transport services id frequently available; this makes, for example, the
use of the passenger car unit (pcu) as a basic measure of traffic flow by no means
always appropriate. Again, the value of time, which provides the cornerstone for
much forecasting and evaluation, has very different characteristics: negative values
are sometimes observed (conceptually a perfectly feasible proposition). Finally, using
market values for resource costs is often inappropriate in developing countries, and
the specification of shadow prices becomes a real issue.

Only a few of the problems associated with applying conventional demand estimation
techniques in developing countries are listed in the above discussion. These and other
issues have led several researchers to look for alternative approaches. Some of these
appear promising, in particular time budget analysis, activity models and direct
demand models. However, it becomes probable that, as in the developed countries,
conventional methods will continue to have a major role to play in transport planning.
What is essential is that they should be applied sensitively, paying careful attention to
the special and distinctive characteristics of the country in which they are to be used.

9.6 Light Rail Transit

The role of Light Rail Transit, popularly known, The Metros, is now widely
recognized as providing a low-cost, fixed track system of intermediate capacity. Many
criteria have now been evolved to help to plan, build and run a successful scheme,
safely, reliably and economically. However, choosing the right form of public
transport is crucial to the well-being of any city, with implications for the immediate
future and the longer term fixed track public transport is the preferred solution in
many urban areas, but then a method is needed to select the most appropriate system
characterized by the rapid growth of cities particularly in the developing countries.

Obviously, one of the problems which this growth generates is a heavy demand for
movement within the urban area for work, shopping and social purposes. Typically,
car ownership is low but travel densities are high, so there is a need for good public
transport and this does not necessarily diminish as the number of cars increases. The
problems which have occurred in cities where fixed track public transport has been
abandoned in favor of a road-based solution, aimed principally at travel by car, are
ample evidence.

The contribution which public transport makes to cities goes deeper than the provision
of mobility. Properly developed, it can become a major determinant in urban form and
can help direct, or encourage, where people live and work, thus achieving an efficient
and acceptable balance of land uses and an attractive environment.

Historically public transport systems have progressively tended to follow

technological developments. The buildings of railways in the last century accelerated

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urbanization, subsequently, trams provided a hitherto unknown degree of mobility
within the city, but were in many cases supplanted by buses (e.g. Karachi—up to
'60s). Reserved track urban rail rapid transit systems were limited to 17 cities until
1950 (added to which there were a number of suburban rail networks). However, there
is now a range of modes from which an appropriate choice can be made, and it is
significant that, particularly from the early 1980s, there has been a rapid upsurge in
urban railway development which is continuing. But one must not assume that a rail
solution is necessarily the right one for a particular city.

This is because; each city has its own characteristics. The first step in making any
system choice is to decide the overall objectives of public transport, and then to
analyze the existing pattern of movement together with medium and long term trends
in population change and travel demand. Given that public transport is to play a part
in the future development of the city, it will then be possible to test how the existing
network of services matches up to present demand, and how and when it should be
developed to condition and meet future requirements.

It cannot be stressed too highly that if the overall objectives are not clear and realistic,
then the chances of making the right system choice are poor.

Provided that public transport demand is appropriate for a rail solution, it is necessary
to choose the type: heavy (suburban) railway, various forms of light rail or Metro.
This choice is likely to be governed by four main factors, i.e. finance the public
transport market, what already exists, urban rail characteristics.

9.7 Metros

The Metro has a crucial role in the day-to-day life of 100 cities, and in their future
plans for social and economic improvements. This transport system has become, by
means of its ability to serve the very heart of an urban area, the essential backbone of
those cities that possess it.

Defining a Metro is difficult. Since the very first was built in London in 1863. Metros
have gradually developed, adapting to the particular to geographic and demographic
features of the cities they serve. However a universal definition has been determined:

"The Metro is transport system using its own

reserved right of way to handle traffic in excess of
10,000 passengers per hour using either existing
technology or that in the course of development."

By examining more modern systems a more detailed technical definition can be

given. Metros operate large capacity trains, powered by electric traction, and
controlled by sophisticated signaling, to allow the necessary headways to be operated
safely. Station infrastructure not only consists of platforms and circulating areas that
are large enough to deal with heavy passenger flows, but is supported by an army of
auxiliary systems, such as lifts and escalators, ticketing equipment and sometimes air
conditioning. These features ensure that all passengers can be accommodated safely
and efficiently, whichever of the various technical options is selected.

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For a developing city to opt for a Metro system as a solution to its transport problems,
what must be understood, even more than the technical features of the mode are its
capabilities in terms of its impact on the city and the process by which the project
should be carried through.

9.7.1 Impact of a Metro

A Metro benefits a city most immediately by providing efficient and speedy travel for
all. Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway carries not less than 1,500, 000 passengers a
day. Such mobility gives freedom of movement to a city's labor force. Furthermore,
the potential for longer journeys to work is realized, creating greater employment
prospects for many. In a developing city, the benefits of efficient and reliable
movement are clear giving prospects of extra prosperity.

But longer-term effects can be seen in a city such as London, where the Metro is long
established. Every morning the underground carries half of the more than one million
people who travel into central London. What is significant is that, while this
proportion has increased over recent years, the percentage of cars carrying people to
work (around 17 percent) has remained steady. Thus the Metro can have a significant
effect in reducing road congestion, which is the most likely problem which could
restrict the growth of a city in a developing country.

While Metro can add significantly to the transport resource available to a city, it can
also add to the value of existing transport facilities. This can be best achieved by the
integration of existing bus services with the Metro, and the use of the bus network as
a feeder service. This has gradually developed in London, promoted by an integrated
fares systems, but is best exemplified in the U.K. by Newcastle-upon-Tyne, where a
new Metro system was integrated with bus services and provided with purpose built
interchanges. However, integration can also take place in a less regulated
environment. After the completion of the Sao Paulo Metro (Brazil), private buses
moved deeper into the suburbs, carrying passengers to Metro stations. The end result
of integration is better transport for a greater number of people than the Metro can
serve directly.

9.7.2 Installing a New Metro

For a developing city a Metro is an exciting tool. The system can not only provide
easy mobility along its corridor, but can benefit the city in other ways. However, this
cannot be realized without the proper management skills, the acquisition of sufficient
capital, a suitable institutional environment and firm determination to see a project
through.

Nowhere, is this determination greater than in then the need for full political support.
This support can range from enhancing community relations, as was needed in Hong
Kong when families were disturbed by construction works, to measures taken to save
the entire railway. Political support saved Bay Area Rapid Transit in San Francisco at
a time of early technical problems, and in Hong Kong continued political support was
crucial in maintaining impetus.

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There must also, however, be a separate dedicated agency to oversee the construction
and eventual operation of the Metro. In Newcastle-upon-Tyne, the Passenger
Transport Executive, which built the Tyne and Wear Metro, was a successful means of
unifying effort. Such institutions are of considerable importance to a Metro. They
succeed in taking day-to-day decisions away from the Government, while at the same
time focus the effort of carrying through the project.

Within this framework there are three disciplines--financial, project and operations--
which must be present, beyond the crucial technical and engineering ability to build
the system, in order that the operational railway is eventually successful.

Financial control and project management are increasingly recognized as important,

but the role of Railway Operations expertise is often neglected, despite the fact that a
system will simply not work if operating expertise is not deployed at an early stage in
the project.

The benefits of a Metro are seen not only in the transport facility which it provides,
but also from the reduction in road congestion, and the addition of extra value to
existing transport resources through integration. These advantages are not procured
simply by installing expensive hardware. They are achieved by the introduction of
good technical advice, careful financial husbandry and effective project management.
Above all the skill of the operator, used form early planning stages to implementation
brings these factors together to create a system that not only works, but works
efficiently. Some experts even call Metros as the pyramids of the 20th century.

9.8 Terminals

A bus or rail terminal is an important link in the transport system. It must serve the
needs of people arriving and leaving and interchanging onto other systems such as
taxi, car or auto-cycle or cycle, with particular importance given to pedestrian
movement.

The cost of building a terminal must be balanced between the needs of the passenger
it serves and the value for money which it offers. However, a major factor may be the
cost of acquiring a suitable site convenient to the city centre, large enough to meet
adequately present needs and allow for future growth. Sufficient space should be
made available for commercial development, such as small shops and cafés which are
both convenient for travelers and a source of revenue. Nevertheless, in a prosperous
growth area, the use of air rights over terminal should be considered for development
such as offices or housing. In Hong Kong, many stations on the new rapid transit
system use this valuable space above, which ideally should be planned for when the
terminal is being built.

A well-used terminal will enhance land values around it which could be of financial
benefit to the city through land acquisition or taxation. Consideration should be given
at the planning stage of the "cost in use" of a terminal. Costs for security, cleaning and
maintenance should be considered and who pays for these costs.

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However, any multi-level solution which requires solution which requires stairs and
ramps should generally be avoided in terminal design where conditions may be
crowded, difficult for people who are heavily laden with baggage or for the aged and
infirm. Escalators and lifts are costly to provide and maintain, and unsuitable where
people are unused to them.

Further, space within and around a terminal must cope with peak requirements
although it can rarely be adequate for seasonal peaks. Finishes to floors and walls
must be robust enough to stand heavy use and be easy to clean, but look good over
many years. Painted surfaces are satisfactory only if regular maintenance is assured.
Advertising, if carefully controlled in size and location, adds interest and is a useful
source of revenue.

As it is terminals may grow from modest beginnings, from being simply part of a
market place where space is given for buses to load and unload passengers safely free
from heavy traffic. Shelter from wind, sun or rain and other facilities may latter be
added. The location of the terminal and easy access for pedestrians is important as is
good vehicular access. Road space adjoining a terminal may, for example, be given
over exclusively to bus use, extended (as in Curitiba, Brazil) as bus-way corridor over
the city.

To conclude, in developing countries today, public transport needs to provide a better

and more convenient service if it is to compete with rising car ownership and use. It is
therefore important to give full consideration to the appropriate planning and design
of terminals, to enable them to become a vital part of any city's transport system.

9.9 Lay-bys and Bus Bays

On all-purpose primary distributors (which are intended primarily for the rapid
movement of the large volumes of traffic) the provision of lay-bys at regular intervals
will help to maintain steady flow by enabling a driver to stop clear of the carriageway
if, for example, he needs to consult a map, check the loading or functioning of his
vehicle or visit a nearly convenience. The presence of lay-bys at fairly frequent
intervals should also help to reduce the number of breakdowns on the carriageway. It
is accordingly recommended that lay-bys should be spaced at intervals of not more
than one mile on each side of these roads. They should also be provided on those
lengths of urban motorway, without paved verges, where they should be spaced at
intervals of not more than half a mile along each carriageway. They should not be
sited where their use might unduly restrict visibility or interfere with movement of
traffic, as, for example, on the inside of a bend or on the approaches to junction.

Typical layouts for lay-bys are shown in figures 1-3. To enables vehicles to leave or
rejoin the carriageway smoothly, lay-bys should have tapered ends. They should
normally be 10 ft. wide and at least 100 ft. long excluding the end tapers. Lesser
widths may have to be accepted where space is restricted, but where possible lay-bys
should be at least 8 ft. wide. Suitable arrangements should be mad for the drainage of
surface water form lay-bys; a cross-fall outwards from the kerb towards the
carriageway will reduce the risk of splashing.

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It will be convenient to site lay-bys and bus bays together. As shown in the Figure (3)
a combined lay-by and bus bay should be at least 150 ft. long excluding end tapers
and between 9 ft. and 10 ft. and 10 ft. 9 in. wide.

On roads linked to the national motorway network, lay-bys should be installed at

convenient points near the interchanges to enable drivers to check their vehicles or
consult maps before entering or after leaving the motorways.

9.10 Urban Passenger Transport

Urban public passenger transport in developing cities presents a kaleidoscopic mix of

political, financial, institutional, management and technical problems to which there
are no easy solutions. The one common denominator is that in countries with limited

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resources most motorized journeys are, and are likely to be, made by public transport.
And because populations are growing, the demand for public transport is growing too.

Para-transit, ranging from scheduled minibuses to auto rikshaws, Suzuki passenger

vans and other brands of passenger vans has attracted a lot of attention in the current
passenger lifting vehicles. In many developing countries it is closely linked with
employment for the urban poor and is encouraged for that reason and also because it
is seen as reducing subsidy demands on the public purse.

It may be pointed that the operating cost per seat mile of the Para-transit is greater
than that of conventional buses which makes it necessary for the Para-transits to
compete on speed of service, to tout aggressively for passengers and to cut corners on
safety and maintenance.

It is also a reminder that public transport in many developing countries may be

strongly susceptible to availability of foreign exchange. There have been several cases
of fleets of buses, supplied new from European builders with international finance,
pre-mutually dumped as unserviceable simply because no foreign exchange was
available to buy spares to keep them in service. However, experts are of the opinion
that the combinations of high public transport usage over a long traffic day and low
wage costs makes Metros potently more profitable to operate in developing countries
than in the developed countries.

Political and institutional factors also come into play in considering how far public
transport priority measures can be funded and enforced in developing cities. It is no
use creating bus lanes if there is no mechanism for removing illegally parked cars.

9.10.1 Bus Operation Sustainability

A perfect public transport system can well be defined as which enables people to
travel where they want, when they want at prices that can be affordable. The closest
we get to it is when we allow, and even encourage, the development of multi-modal
transport system which provides a variety of public transport services to suit a wide
range of individual pockets and patients.

Where this policy has been adopted the bus operator can concentrate on providing the
service his vehicles are best at: moving relati-large numbers of people quickly and
safely on the main roads. Smaller vehicles, generally privately owned and operated,
can be left to meet demand for shorter journeys pertaining often crowed residential
and business areas.

In this context bus route planning becomes straight forward: exploit the technical
advantages of the bus in response to improvements to the road network and the
services which drive from it are powerful catalysts of economic and social
development. Bus operators and policy makers who understand this need not get
bogged down in endless debates on which route network is the optimum, a process
which all too often becomes an obstacle to implementing anyway. Instead they can
introduce new routes quickly and then monitor their performance by continuing the

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number of passengers carried. Changes are not difficult to make, and a flexible
approach is essential in rapidly growing urban areas.

In Pakistan, where the concept of a hierarchy of public transport modes and services
is either not acceptable or cannot be accommodated within ideological or financial
constrains; the bus route planner's job becomes more difficult. Instead of being free to
fully exploit the inherent advantages of buses, he is likely to come under pressure to
introduce or maintain routes for which they are not suited or for which there is
inadequate demand.

Matching supply to demand of public transport (buses) in the big cities of Pakistan is
never easy. This could be because the pace of urbanization is often such that the bus
operators, whether privately or publicly owned, are hard put to increase their fleet
capacity correspondingly. Faced with the situation it is important that each "bus hour"
is made as productive as possible scheduling vehicles to be in the right places at the
right time. Ticket sales data, when it is available, is a very useful indicator of the level
of the demand by route, direction, and time of day. More precise information on
exactly where supply is exceeding demand or more often where additional capacity is
required, can be obtained from one-bus and other surveys.

9.10.2 One Person Operation

The recently introduced generation of electronic ticket machines supportive software

offers an inciting opportunity for bus operators dramatically to improve their
management information. Data can be presented promptly and arranged in formats
with busy line managers can easily understand, and to which they can respond as
required. However, these machines are invariably designed for one-person operation
(OPO) which is often not appropriate to developing countries e.g. Pakistan. Good
management information is valuable, though rarely enough to compensate for any
increase in operating costs.

OPO is widely regarded as one of the most significant productive improvements in

the bus industry, especially in high income developed countries. But the price of this
improvement has often been high: despite of the introduction of many innovative
ticketing systems to speed passenger boarding, running times have generally
increased. In rapidly growing cities, road space is at a premium and OPO buses
compound the problem of traffic congestion to the detriment of all road users,
including their own passengers. Furthermore, most OPO services require passengers
to queue and board in an orderly manner which would be quite a novelty in many
developing countries (including Pakistan).

9.10.3 Bus Fares

In many countries bus operators are not free to set their fares as is the case in
Pakistan. But services are expected to provide cheap transport for the mass transport
market, and the majority of people are poor. But a policy of low fares has serious
dangers which can rise up to destroy even the most efficient bus undertaking. As cities
grow and traffic congestion increases, routes lengthen and running times increase

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disproportionately. Where flat, as opposed to distance related, fares have become the
norm, operating costs can soon outstrip revenue despite crush load factors.

If the bus undertaking is publicly owned, city and national governments can find
themselves starting into a financial "black hole" which sooner or later becomes
overwhelming. Even if the bus service is provided by the private sector, but with
controlled, low fares, subsidies are likely to be needed sooner or later.

If bus operators are free to set their fares they are less likely to lose financial control.
They know, or should know, their operating costs per bus per day, and therefore the
average revenue per bus per day required to cover that cost or a specified proportion
of it and fares can be set accordingly. Have they achieved their financial targets will
depend upon the competition, their customers' incomes, and ability to control their
operating costs and revenue leakage, and the quality of their services.

However, the transport fares are regulated by the public franchise authorities of the
provinces of Pakistan. Public experience serious pinch when there are fluctuations in
the fuel prices or other accessories required to run a service.

9.10.4 Reliability

For passengers, an important aspect of any public transport service is reliability. This
is particularly so far journeys to work and school which make up a large proportion of
an urban bus operator's market. Good bus maintenance is a critical factor in achieving
reliability, although it is often one of the weakest areas of bus operations in
developing countries. In Pakistan the entire public bus transport, let it be within big
cities or inter-provisional bus service, it is in total mess.

Then, once he has got his buses on the road, an operator needs good supervision to
ensure that crews according to the schedules. Supervisors are also needed to react to
the inevitable problems, such as breakdowns, which can disturb the service. A well
trained team of responsible supervisors is a valuable asset for any bus operator
wishing to provide a reliable service to the public. Without them the best planning in
can be wasted. Realization should come in the operators that reliability is no
coincidence. It has to be achieved through checks and balances which is bound to give
durability to the vehicle resulting in overall viability, comfort and economic stability
to the stakeholders.

As it is, life span of a bus in the fleet in service is at most no more than 14 years. But
in Pakistan and many other developing countries, half the fleets on roads are 20 or
even more time duration older. This could finally be attributed to the lack of funds.

As a result of such a scenario, frequent breakdowns cannot be wished away.

Consequently, call for more spares and expert mechanics are required to keep the
public transport running on the roads. In Pakistan and other developing countries,
public transport is owned, operated, maintained by the private organizations. They
have to seek only road permits from the relevant public authority. Unfortunately, there
exists no "time-table' for the public to know! The running schedules remains and the
sweet will and wish of the fleet owners! Such serious matters must be on the Police

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files, but unfortunately not exhibited for the public! This all sums up the case of
reliability of the public transport service as provided to the public in Pakistan by the
operators.

Then once an operator gets his fleet on the road, the operator needs supervision to
ensure that crews work according to the schedules. Supervisors are also needed to
react to the inevitable problems, such as breakdowns, which can disturb the service. A
well trained team of responsible supervisors is a valuable asset for any bus operator
wishing to provide a reliable service to the public. Without them the best planning in
the world can be wasted. Thus it could rightly be said that the economic and operating
efficiency of a fleet undertakings are dependent upon a multiplicity of factors. Bus
operators and policy makers must maintain a flexible approach if they wish their
services to remain viable in the face of competition and external constraints.
However, in countries with limited resources, buses can be kept in service past their
normal lifespan to cater for the high level of demand. Nevertheless, demand often
exceeds supply: peak hour queues are witnessed in almost all the big cities of the
developing countries, Karachi, Hyderabad, Lahore, Rawalpindi, Islamabad,
Faisalabad, etc. are just a few most notorious in this respect.

9.10.5 Problems of Vehicle and Spares Availability

In many cases, a major problem stands out as a shortage of foreign currency some of
the sophisticated parts not yet manufactured in Pakistan. Availability of foreign
currency is the major hurdle: shortage of fuel and gas are also coupled with this one
item which needs to be imported.

Broken-down buses need spares to put them back on the road. The breakdown of
buses may be caused merely by some sort of mechanical defects. The reasons could
be no spare parts and no expertise to fix the machines. This causes the vehicles to be
auctioned as scraps.

Rural operators suffer the most. At least not less than 85 percent rural roads are dust
or gravel roads, many of them in a very poor condition. Some have very low bridges
which are easily covered by flowing water during the rainy season, causing the long
halt in the operations with pinching inconvenience of the passengers. The bad roads
damage tyres and tubes badly so much that their life is greatly shortened. The quality
of locally-produced tyres ahs also been affected by lack of foreign exchange, that
tyres are more susceptible to damage. The most recent calamity in Pakistan is the
acute shortage of electricity and its own natural resource--gas.

As if it is not sufficient, in case of a fatal accident in a big city of Pakistan, the buses
have been burned by the on lookers. In some rural areas of Pakistan buses are run
under police escorts.

9.10.6 Appropriate Bus Configuration

The selection of the appropriate design of vehicle for the prevailing operating
conditions is a major factor in operating a successful bus service. Many developing
countries have similar requirements which can readily be translated into a design

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specification. If these principles are followed, and the investment protected by a
thoroughly planned and implemented preventive maintenance scheme, then economic
vehicle lives of over 12 years or more million kilometers can be obtained even under
extremely arduous conditions.

Before preparing a design specification, vehicle configuration should be considered

and their relative merits evaluated for the particular operation envisaged. Other
constraints on vehicle design for developing countries that must be born in mind
include the high utilization and probability of over-loading arising from the typical
shortage of public transport provision, the adverse road and climatic condition, the
degree of technical support available from the vehicle manufacturer or his agent, and
the generally low level of skills available to a transport undertaking.

Furthermore, cognizance must be taken of the very different cost profile of vehicle
operation in developing countries-fuel can absorbs up to 40 percent of operating
expenditure, compared to as little as 5 percent in Europe, whereas low unit labor rates
can reduce staff costs inversely.

The light bus has applications for feeder services or where the road layout prohibits
larger vehicles and its volume production base ensures low unit costs. However, its
passenger capacity limitations cause congestion and control problems on main
corridors and its mechanical components as a relatively short life. Integral bodywork
prohibits local content and adds to shipping costs but local bodies can be built on
equivalent light freight chases. This vehicle type can be a supplement to, but not from
the core of, an intensive urban undertaking and is also suited to Para transit.

The Double Decker bus is an efficient user of road space but can be restricted by low
height obstructions (including deposits). Stability is poorer than Single Decker and
passenger boarding and alighting is slower. Mechanical configuration is relatively
complex, increasing maintenance and capital costs. As such, this vehicle type is
limited to specialist applications, though in three-axle form it can be highly efficient
people mover.

Similarly, the articulated bus (not in use in Pakistan) can be restricted by road
geometry being difficult to reverse, requires special depot infrastructure and is
relatively complex, leading to higher maintenance costs. Capital and fuel costs per
passenger are no low than conventional vehicles and the crew saving is relatively
unimportant. It is particularly suited to peak movement of end-to-end traffic but off-
peak flexibility of operation is impaired.

The conventional transit bus by contrast is suited to a broad spectrum of operations as

it is a relatively efficient people mover on main corridors, but can provide appropriate
capacity and maneuverability for off-peak and less heavily traveled routes. Vehicles of
this type can vary from the sophisticated integral designs with rear engines, through to
the simple drive-derivative chassis with a locally produced body. The former is not
normally compatible with local road conditions with regard to ground clearance, etc.,
and its mechanical complexity can lead to poor reliability and high maintenance costs.
In the latter, however, the mechanical configuration can be simple, easing
maintenance, and the drive train can be selected for durability. In separate chassis and
body form there can be a degree of local manufacture and the same basic vehicle type

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can be adapted with different bodywork to rural and express bus applications as well.
By using volume-produced truck-based components in the design unit, costs can be
contained to acceptable levels. This basis concept has been used with considerable
success throughout United Transport International's operations and the more detailed
specification is itemized below, though recognizing that this may need to be modified
in detailed to suit local conditions:

 Dimensions and Gross Vehicle Weight

 Body Type and Structure
 Body Trim and Fittings
 Chassis
 Power Plate
 Transmission
 Breaks
 Steering and Suspension
 Electrical and Fluid System

Vehicle broadly conforming to these criteria are available from all the main
manufacturing territories in the world, although the degree of sophistication available
in the driving varies considerably. The ability to match a specification precisely
differs between suppliers; typically the smaller specialists have advantages in this
respect. On the other hand this can be countered by the low unit cost, availability of
finance and the service back-up provided by the major manufacturers. Vehicles from
less developed countries have been designed for appropriate conditions in their
domestic markets but may feature obsolescent technology. Over-riding the above may
be political considerations regarding country of origin or the availability of
development and finance. To evaluate the balance of these factors there is little
alternative to an international competitive tender, but sources of supply should not be
varied too frequently as there are considerable benefits in fleet standardization. In a
high inflation environment initial costs before long become historic, but operating and
maintenance costs are current and soon dwarf these.

9.11 Thought for Future

Public transport services, particularly buses, are of major importance in most

developing countries. Although there are many examples of systems and services
which are inefficient and subject to too great a level of restraint (rather than positive
control), there are also many examples on innovation both in organization and type of
service.

It is clear that there is a growing demand for public transport in developing world
cities and that it is essential for the social and economic well being of the community
that an adequate public transport system can continue to be provided.

The development of Para-transit systems has generated controversy over the use of
small or large vehicles, the encouragements of small or large enterprises, and whether
the public transport sector should be privately-operated or nationalized. Resolving the
arguments is not an easy task because the technical merits of a particular system may
be masked by institutionalized constrains.

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In general, small vehicles are likely to be more expensive to operate per seat-km than
large vehicles (assuming the same operator were to be running both types). But
returns on the smaller vehicle may be higher because of higher load factors and fares
(per passenger-km).

A small enterprise is likely to be able to operate a given vehicle type more cheaply
than a large enterprise. This is because economic of scale are minimal and labor
productivity is higher in the small enterprise, which is less subject to laws and staff
pressures on manning levels, working hours and wage rates.

Lastly, a nationalized industry is likely to incur higher costs than a private concern,
but also to be under greater pressure to provide high service levels at artificially low
fares.

A bus company which is impoverished by virtue of a low fare structure and at the
same time is not in receipt of positive government support will always be short of
investment capital, as a consequence of which the service will inevitably deteriorate.
The decaying or stagnant service is further eroded as Para-transit forms develop, their
owners taking the opportunity to fill the gaps in transport supply.

Increasingly, public transport facilities are, being developed as an adjunct of traffic

management schemes designed to reduce congestion. A satisfactory public transport
system can contribute to the success of schemes which seek to restrict the numbers of
vehicles entering the city centre. It is interesting to note that two such schemes have
been tested in the developing world: area licensing has been successfully installed in
Singapore and was also considered in both Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur; road pricing
technology has been successfully tested in Hong Kong.

Transport policies obviously have to be planned in the light of urban development of

objectives, operating circumstances and resources available. Different cities in the
developing world have approached the problem of providing for transport demand in
different ways. There is evidence of a broad correlation between certain ways. There
is evidence of a broad correlation between certain characteristics of the city and its
transport and the level of supply. However, the mechanism of interaction between
these factors needs much greater understanding if only to avoid the (frequently)
inevitable result of creating long-term problems through solving immediate problems
concerning transport demand.

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