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March 2014
Rajeev Agarwal
Research Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA)
Today, Afghanistan is in a state of transition. directly involved in Afghanistan, and China
While international support has been appears focussed only on the economic arena.
forthcoming, both in terms of financial aid The CAR, themselves weak and prone to
and military assistance, it is Afghanistan’s various threats are in no position to provide
close neighbours who become crucial to the any direct help. Pakistan, with its known links
country’s future. Pakistan, Iran and the to Taliban, its role in numerous terrorist
Central Asian Republics (CAR) share borders attacks in Afghanistan, its quest for a weak
with Afghanistan, forming the immediate and pro‐Pakistan regime in Afghanistan, and
neighbourhood, while China (though its known involvement in harbouring top
connected directly via the narrow Wakhan Taliban leaders, does not invoke confidence
corridor), India and Russia form the extended amongst Afghan policy makers.
neighbourhood.
This leaves India and Iran – both nations that
Russia, owing to the bitter experience of its have cordial relations with Afghanistan and
occupation during 1979‐89, is unwilling to get are counted as reliable allies. As Afghanistan
looks forward to 2015, two critical events take
place this year: the presidential elections, and
the security transition.
Col Rajeev Agarwal Research Fellow, Institute for
Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) The present standoff with the US does not
auger well for Afghanistan, for in the midst of
all this, the Taliban remains strong and
resolute. They have rejected peace talks
stating that there cannot be any peace talks
as long as foreign troops are present on
Afghan soil.
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As the war in Afghanistan draws down by end of
II 2014, Afghanistan looks up to India as a major
India and Afghanistan
source of support. Similarly, India too is keen
India and Afghanistan share a long history of that a stable and peaceful transition takes place
cultural, civilizational and economic ties. Both in Afghanistan. India thus has the opportunity
countries shared borders till 1947 when
to enhance its engagement with Afghanistan,
Pakistan was carved out of British India.
Among the Afghan population, even today, building on its goodwill and support and create a
India is considered the most popular country new partnership.
with most opinion polls giving over 70 per
cent votes to India. India’s support to the
Afghan government and its consistent anti‐
takes place in Afghanistan. India thus has the
Taliban stance has been always appreciated
opportunity to enhance its engagement with
in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan, building on its goodwill and
Like Iran, India supported, funded and armed support and create a new partnership. With
the Northern Alliance in the fight to no common borders and Pakistan in between,
overthrow the Taliban in 2001. Afghan the journey is going to be difficult. It is
President Hamid Karzai has called India as the therefore essential to run a SWOT analysis to
”most trusted ally and an all‐weather friend,” examine India’s future engagement with
and giving credence to the confidence that Afghanistan.
Kabul has in New Delhi, India was the first
country Afghanistan signed its Strategic
Partnership Agreement (SPA) with. India is India and Afghanistan: A SWOT Analysis
popular not only among the Hazaras and
Tajiks, but also among a large number of India’s historical links, its goodwill across the
Pashtuns. It’s over $2 billion aid to length and breadth of Afghanistan, as well as
Afghanistan in reconstruction and welfare its reputation of being a benign power with
projects too have been well received. no extra‐territorial ambitions is the biggest
strength in India’s relations with Afghanistan.
Both nations share their concerns over terror As mentioned above, the government and
and have been equally inflicted by it in the people in the country appreciate India’s
past decades; Afghanistan through the support to Afghan peace processes and the
Taliban and India through Pakistan‐sponsored generous aid and assistance in reconstruction
terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir. Despite not projects.
committing militarily in Afghanistan, India has
suffered from Taliban terror more than once, India’s consistent stance vis‐à‐vis the Taliban
whether it was the hijacking of the Indian is another source of strength in bilateral
Airline flight IC814 to Kandahar in 1998, the relations. India, despite being side‐lined in the
multiple times the Indian embassy and London Conference in 2010 for not
missions have been targeted in Kabul, or even recognising the difference between good and
the attacks on Indian engineers working on bad Taliban, has maintained its consistent anti
reconstruction projects in Afghanistan. ‐Taliban position, something that is well
appreciated in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan appreciates the Indian sacrifices
and commitment to the Afghan cause. India’s aid to Afghanistan, and reconstruction
projects too, are a major factor in the bilateral
As the war in Afghanistan draws down by end relationship. India is the fifth‐largest donor in
of 2014, Afghanistan looks up to India as a Afghanistan after the US, UK, Japan and
major source of support. Similarly, India too is Germany, and is the largest non‐traditional
keen that a stable and peaceful transition 5
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donor in Afghanistan. This, coupled with the The SPA signed with Afghanistan is key
sacrifices made by Indians in building these opportunity for India. While signing the SPA,
projects too is great source of strength. Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh
stated that India would "stand by
The absence of direct land or maritime
Afghanistan" when foreign troops withdraw
connectivity with Afghanistan is perhaps the
from the country in 2014. The SPA promises
biggest obstacle to enhancing bilateral
to provide an institutional framework
engagement between India and Afghanistan.
towards India’s assistance towards Afghan
With an unrelenting Pakistan and an isolated
capacity building in the areas of education,
Iran given the international sanctions, India
development, and people‐to‐people contacts,
has felt often felt handicapped in
as also in the training, equipping and capacity
transporting basic supplies, and/or equipment
building programmes for the Afghan National
and manpower for reconstruction projects.
Security Forces. The SPA also promises a new
Another weakness labelled against India is dimension in economic relations. India has
that India has not been able to leverage its already started working on it by enhancing
goodwill in Afghanistan. “Sitting on the side‐ the scope of military assistance to Afghan
lines,” “service provider rather than a stake Armed forces in the form of training and
holder” are some of the accusations labelled equipment.
against India.
India’s investments in Afghanistan are
India’s failure to protect its embassy and another great opportunity in enhancing
missions in Afghanistan too has often been bilateral relations. The winning of the
quoted as its weaknesses. India’s reluctance contract for estimated reserves of 1.8 billion
to send regular troops after attacks on its tonnes of iron ore at Hajigak by a consortium
embassy in 2008 and 2010, even to protect its of Indian firms led by the Steel Authority of
mission, has been interpreted as a weak India Limited (SAIL), as well as other projects
Indian stand. and investments are ideal opportunities to
galvanise Indian support in Afghanistan. The
India’s formulation of its Afghan policy via the ‘Heart of Asia’ initiative by India to draw
Pakistan prism is also seen as a weakness. global finances and investments for
Often, India has ceded to Pakistan’s concerns Afghanistan presents one such opportunity.
not only in India’s security engagement in
Afghanistan, but also in its overall Afghan India has for long sought good relations with
policy. the CAR. With Iran under sanctions and
Afghanistan embroiled in war, India found it
difficult to enhance its engagement with the
The absence of direct land or maritime CAR. With the possibility of both the issues to
get resolved in the coming years, it presents
connectivity with Afghanistan is perhaps the
an excellent opportunity for India to enhance
biggest obstacle to enhancing bilateral its engagement with the CAR, especially in
engagement between India and Afghanistan. the context of energy supplies.
With an unrelenting Pakistan and an isolated
The ‘New Silk Route’ initiative proposed by
Iran given the international sanctions, India has the US to make Afghanistan a bridge for
felt often felt handicapped in transporting basic trade and transit between South, Central and
supplies, and/or equipment and manpower for West Asia offers a great opportunity for India.
reconstruction projects. India has always felt left out in the great
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