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Volume No.. I Issue No. 65 Bosch Ltd Apr 4th, 2016

BSE Code: 500530 NSE Code: BOSCHLTD Reuters Code: BOSH.NS Bloomberg Code: BOS:IN

Readying itself for next leg of growth Market Data


Bosch Ltd, promoted by Robert Bosch GmbH, is India’s leading auto
ancillary company. It is a dominant player in the diesel engine segment
Rating BUY
CMP (Rs.) 20,082
with ~70% market share. In FY15, Bosch derived 88% & 12% of its
Target (Rs.) 22,083
turnover from auto & non-auto segment respectively. Potential Upside (%) 10
Investment Rationale Duration Long Term
 Pricing power to remain intact on the back of leadership position & Face Value (Rs.) 10.0
technological excellence: Bosch has a dominant ~70% market share in India for 52 week H/L (Rs.) 26,797/15,736
Adj. all time High
diesel fuel injection products. It is the leading provider of groundbreaking (Rs.)
27,990
automotive technologies and services. Being a dominant player in fuel injection Decline from 52WH
25.1
(FI) segment, FI products contribute ~70% to the company’s revenue. Bosch (%)
Group (parent) spends ~10% of its turnover every year on R&D. Further, Bosch Rise from 52WL (%) 27.6
Group provides most of its technologies at a low royalty rate (1.6% of its Beta 0.6
Mkt. Cap (Rs.Cr) 63,057
turnover) to the Indian arm (Bosch Ltd). Thus, Bosch Ltd, stands to benefit from
the technology leadership profile of its parent as implementation of new and
Fiscal Year Ended
advanced technologies pick up ground in India. Hence, pricing power would be
maintained given its leadership in technology. FY15 (15
Y/E FY16E FY17E FY18E
months)
 Early implementation of stricter emission norms to drive growth
Revenue
ahead: In order to tackle air pollution, the government has announced to 12,086 10,705 11,720 13,800
(Rs.Cr)
upgrade to stricter fuel standards (BS VI) from 2020 (skipping BS V altogether). 1,366 1,188 1,505 1,900
Adj. Profit
BS VI was originally proposed to come in by 2024. Further, BS IV emission norms (Rs.Cr)
would be applicable across India from April 2017. Therefore, Bosch emerges as
EPS (Rs.) 434.9 378.4 479.2 605.0
one of the main beneficiaries as it is a key supplier for fuel injection system for
vehicles. As per industry estimates, implementation of BS IV on pan-India basis P/E (x) 58.4 53.1 41.9 33.2

offers ~Rs 5,000 crores opportunity annually. Hence, we expect FI segment to P/BV (x) 10.9 7.6 6.7 5.8
grow at a CAGR of 18.3% over FY15-FY18E. The commitment of government to ROE (%) 20.0 15.2 17.0 18.7
combat pollution would lead to content increase with common-rail in BS IV
One year Price Chart
(2017) and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) in BS VI (2020). Moreover, major
150
competitors such as Delphi and Denso do not have presence in India with SCR, a
100
key technology for BS VI. Going forward, this would boost realisations for Bosch.
50
 Non-Auto business aids in providing revenue diversification: During
0
CY11-FY15, the non-auto business grew at a CAGR of 13.3%. While non-auto
Jul-15
Jun-15

Nov-15

Dec-15

Jan-16
Apr-15

Aug-15

Sep-15

Oct-15

Apr-16
Feb-16

Mar-16
May-15

business of Bosch Ltd contributes ~12% to the overall revenues, global non-auto
business’ contribution is ~32%. This business has a robust growth potential and BOSCHLTD NIFTY
is expected to benefit from the pick up in the economic activity. We expect this
business to grow at a CAGR of 15.2% over FY15-FY18E. Shareholding Pattern Dec-15 Sep-15 Chg.
Valuation: Bosch is in a sweet spot given its leadership position, technology
focus and unique positioning in the Indian auto industry. We expect revenue and Promoters (%) 71.2 71.2 0.0
PAT to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% and 11.6% over FY15-FY18E. Further, we rate the FII (%) 7.7 8.4 (0.7)
stock as ‘BUY’ assigning a forward P/E of 36.5x (given acceleration in growth
DII (%) 11.5 11.0 0.5
trajectory due to advanced emission norms) arriving at a target price of Rs.
22,083 which implies potential upside of ~10% for next 12 months. Others (%) 9.6 9.5 0.1

For private circulation only


Bosch Ltd: Dominant player in the fuel injection segment
Bosch Ltd is a dominant Bosch, promoted by Robert Bosch GmbH (holds 71.18% stake), is India’s leading auto ancillary
player in the diesel engine company. It is a dominant player in the diesel engine segment with ~70% market share. The
segment with ~70% market company has a broad-based product portfolio of diesel and gasoline fuel injection systems,
share. automotive aftermarket products, starter motors & generators, special purpose machines,
packaging machines, electric power tools, security systems etc. The automotive segment
contributes 88% to the overall revenues. The company also has one of the largest distribution
network of spare parts in the country, with aftermarket business accounting for ~20% of
revenues. Its key manufacturing facilities are located at Bengaluru, Nashik, Naganathapura,
Jaipur, Gangaikondan, Goa and Bidadi.
Segment-wise Revenue Mix

Non-Auto, 12%

Automotives
Products, 88%

Business divisions of Bosch Ltd

Diesel Systems Gasoline Systems Packaging Technology Power Tools


The Board has approved the
sale of its starter motor
&generators (SG) division to a
100% subsidiary of its parent
for Rs 486 crores. SG
Automotive Starter Motors * Energy & Building Solns. Security Technology
constitutes ~10 % of Bosch Ltd Aftermarket & Generators & Thermo-technology
turnover and around 1% of
Bosch Ltd EBIT.

Bosch’ Product Portfolio


Business
Line Segments Products Target Segment
Gasoline Direct gasoline injection PV
Gasoline port injection

Diesel Common rail systems CV, PV, Tractors


Automotive
Electric drives Actuators All
Pumps & Valves
Electronics Electronic control units All
Mechatronic modules
Power tools Surveying equipment, Range Finders Construction, Wood &
Impact wrenches, Drill Machines Metal working

Industrial equipment Metal cutting machines


Industrial
Non-Automotive Assembly equipment

Packaging solutions Form, fill & seal machines Pharmaceuticals, Food


Flow wrap machines
Security systems IP-based CCTV surveillance & Access Control Hotels, Metro Rail,
Systems Stadium
Fire Alarm & Intrusion systems
Source: Company, In-house research
Source: Company, In-house research; *: Assuming shareholders nod for the sale of SG division

For private circulation only


Cyclical recovery in CVs and PVs to drive strong growth
Engine parts constitute ~31% During FY11-15, automotive volumes (excluding 2Ws) grew at a CAGR of ~2%. Of late, there
of the total auto ancillary has been a visible traction in the CV space (YTD FY16 growth was 9% YoY) aided by growing
demand. demand from the infrastructure sector and the opening up of the mining sector. Going
forward, with meaningful recovery in overall capex cycle, CV segment in India is expected to
grow at a CAGR of ~14-17% over the next two years. With, CVs contributing about 50% to the
company’s revenues, demand recovery in the CV space coupled with BS-IV compliance on
pan-India basis by April 2017 bodes well for the company. Similarly, PV segment is expected to
grow at a CAGR of 11-13% over the next two years on the back of new product launches (PV
contributes nearly 15% to the overall revenues). While pressure on the tractor segment is
likely to continue in the near term, it may improve, going forward. After two consecutive
years of poor monsoon, it is predicted that India will receive normal rainfall this year. Besides,
government has recently taken several initiatives (crop insurance, enhanced allocation for
NREGA in Union Budget) to revive rural growth.

Bosch caters to ~40% of Indian auto ancillary industry Bosch’s revenue growth is in sync with auto industry volumes
Others, 7% Engine 50.0 39.6
Electrical Parts, 13.9
Parts, 9% 28.2 6.0 10.0
Equipments, 31% 1.0
9.1
(%)
10% 0.0 -1.0 5.0
Suspension & -5.8
Braking Parts,
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
12% Drive -50.0
Transmission
Body & & Steering Automotive Industry Volume Growth (%)
Chassis, Parts, 19% Bosch Net Sales Growth (%)
12%
Source: Company, In-house research
Source: ACMA, In-house research

Early implementation of stricter emission norms to drive growth ahead


In order to tackle air pollution, the government has announced to upgrade to stricter fuel
standards (BS VI). India will be the first country worldwide to skip one level of emission
legislation (BS V). Implementation of the BS V standard was earlier scheduled for 2019. BS VI,
originally proposed to come in by 2024 has been now advanced to 2020, instead. Further, BS
The government has decided IV emission norms would be applicable across India from April 2017. Already, BS-IV is
to implement stricter emission applicable in almost all major cities including Delhi-NCR, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata and
norms of Bharat Stage (BS) VI Hyderabad.
from April 1, 2020, by skipping Bosch emerges as one of the main beneficiaries as it is a key supplier for fuel injection system
BS V altogether. for vehicles. Thus, implying incremental revenue opportunity for Bosch Ltd & we expect FI
segment to grow at a CAGR of 18.3% over FY15-FY18E. While almost all PVs sold in India are
already BS IV compliant, majority of the CVs are still running on BS III standard. Hence, the
incremental changes required in CV segment would give an impetus to company’s powertrain
business. As per industry estimates, implementation of BS IV on pan-India basis offers ~Rs
5,000 crores opportunity annually.
Nationwide rollout of BS Emission Norms in India: Timeline
Emission Norm Deadline
Bharat Stage I 2000
Bharat Stage II 2005
Bharat Stage III 2010
Bharat Stage IV 2017
Bharat Stage V Skipped

Bharat Stage VI 2020


Source: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways

For private circulation only


Historically, it has been seen that whenever advanced emission norms are implemented
nation-wide, revenues rose sharply in that particular year. Generally, with each change in the
stage of an emission norm, there is an increase in content, leading to Bosch outperforming
the industry growth. In CY10, when BS III standard was implemented, Bosch’s revenues grew
~40% aided by a sharp recovery post the global financial crisis. Similarly, revenues grew ~25%
in CY05 when BS III standard was implemented.
Going forward, the government is planning to skip BS V standard by migrating directly to BS
VI from BS IV. This move would lead to content increase with common-rail in BS IV (2017)
and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) in BS VI (2020). The major competitors such as Delphi
and Denso do not have presence in India with SCR, a key technology for BS VI. Further, Bosch
sees opportunities in the Indian two-wheeler market as this segment is expected to be
covered under BS VI norms. Currently 2Ws in India are carburetor based & they too will be
required to shift to fuel injection systems.
Implementation of advanced emission norms augur well for Bosch’s sales growth

BS II BS III BS IV
Implementation 40%
Implementation Implementation

28% 27%
22% 23%
20% 18%
13% 6% 5% 6% 1% 10% 11% 9%

FY15 (Adj)

FY16E

FY17E

FY18E
CY03

CY04

CY05

CY06

CY07

CY08

CY09

CY10

CY11

CY12

CY13
Source: Company, In-house research

Pricing power to remain intact on the back of leadership position & technological
excellence
Bosch has a dominant ~70% market share in India for diesel fuel injection products. It has
been the leading provider of groundbreaking automotive technologies and services for over
nine decades in India. Being a dominant player in fuel injection (FI) segment, FI products
contribute ~70% to the company’s revenue.
Bosch Ltd enjoys the benefits of its global parent’s strong technology dominance and,
thereby, has a higher new product acceptance rate among OEMs. Over years, Bosch Ltd has
Bosch Group offers most of its imported newer technologies in the wake of emission changes, which have helped it to cater
technologies at a low royalty to the Indian market. Bosch Ltd has generally followed the policy of importing the technology
rate (~1.6% of its turnover) to and then gradually localising it as its acceptance increases in the market.
the Indian arm. The Bosch Group enjoys a strong technological leadership in fuel injection systems and is a
trusted ancillary partner for most global auto manufactures. This is on account of the huge
R&D spend that is carried out by Bosch Global. In 2014, the Bosch Group spent ~5 billion
euros (around 10% of sales revenue) and filed 4,593 patents worldwide. Interestingly, Bosch
Group (parent) offers most of its technologies at a low royalty rate (~1.6% of its turnover) to
Bosch Ltd.
The major competitors of Bosch Global are Delphi & Denso Corp. Both these competitors
supply products in segments ranging from fuel injection systems to exhaust systems.
However, Bosch Global remains the leader in the space. More importantly, in India, both the
competitors have limited penetration.
EBITDA margins have remained steady above 15% for all years (except CY13) in the last 5
years. Given its leadership in technology, it is expected that pricing power would be
maintained going forward.

For private circulation only


Non-Auto business aids in providing revenue diversification
The revenue contribution of non-auto business to Bosch’s topline has risen from 10% in
While non-auto business of CY11 to 12% in FY15. The non-auto business comprises of three verticals: Industrial
Bosch Ltd contributes ~12% to Technology, Consumer Goods (Power Tools & Household appliances) and Energy & Building
the overall revenues, global non- Technology. While non-auto business of Bosch Ltd contributes ~12% to the overall revenues,
auto business’ contribution is global non-auto business’ contribution is ~32%. This business has a strong growth potential
~32%. and is expected to benefit from the pick up in the economic activity. We expect this business
to grow at a CAGR of 15.2% over FY15-FY18E.
Structure of Bosch’s non-auto business

Non-Auto

Industrial Consumer Energy &


Technology Goods Building
(Power Tools Technology

Packaging Industrial Security Bosch Thermotech


Technology Equipment Technology Energy & nology
Building
Solutions

Non-Auto’s contribution to the total revenues on the rise

14% 13% 13%


12% 12% 12%
11%
11%

8%

5%
CY12 CY13 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Source: Company, In-house research; Note: FY15 is a 15 month period due to change in accounting year

Traction in Automotive aftermarket business augurs well


Bosch derives about 20% of revenues from the automotive aftermarket division. This
division is responsible for the supply, sales & distribution of all Bosch-branded automotive
parts in India and the SAARC region. The product range offered is the largest under one
brand in India and finds extensive application in 2Ws, 3Ws, cars, MUVs, LCVs, HCVs, buses,
tractors etc. The Bosch automotive aftermarket distribution network is the largest in India,
with over 1,000 authorized distributors, over 3,000 authorized workshops and direct
distribution reach beyond 60,000 semi-wholesale and retail points with presence in all the
key markets.
The products marketed by this division include diesel and gasoline fuel injection system &
components, alternators, starter motors, spark plugs, automotive filters, automotive
Bosch derives about 20% of batteries, automotive belts, automotive software,2& 3 wheeler clutch plates etc.
revenues from the automotive Besides, it is responsible for Bosch service workshop concepts for vehicle service and
aftermarket division maintenance. It manages the largest independent service network in India with over 3,000
workshops/ service network comprising over 500 Bosch Car Service, 1,000 Bosch Diesel
Service Centers, 600 Electric Modules, 250 Express Car Service and 150 Express Bike Service
in India, covering ~1,200 cities. Hence, we expect this division to grow at a CAGR of 18% over
FY15-FY18E led by new products introduction, increased use of electronics coupled with
increased preference for authorised services.

For private circulation only


Automotive Aftermarket revenues to grow at a CAGR of 18% during FY15-FY18E

3,500

(Rs. Crores)
2,500
3,323
1,500 2,327 2,746
1,917 1,965 2,024
500
CY12 CY13 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E

Source: Company, In-house research; Note: FY15 is a 15 month period due to change in accounting year

Overall EBITDA margins to expand significantly, going forward


Engine parts are impacted the most by emission norm changes. We believe there is significant
scope of margin expansion in the coming years led by the implementation of advanced
emission norms (BS IV in 2017 & BS VI in 2020) across the country. The stricter norms would
lead to content increase with common-rail in BS IV (2017) and SCR in BS VI (2020). Given
limited competition in this space, we expect realisations to increase for Bosch. Further, the
sale of starter motor & generator division would provide fillip to the overall margins (this
division constitutes ~10% of Bosch Ltd turnover and merely 1% of Bosch Ltd EBIT). Thus, we
believe Bosch’s EBITDA margin to grow to 19.5% in FY18E from 16.4% in FY15.

Revenue and PAT to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% and 11.6% respectively over FY15-18E
During FY15-FY18E, we expect the top-line of the company to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% on the
We expect top-line of the back of regulation requirements (BS IV in 2017 & BS VI in 2020) which will lead to greater-
company to grow at a CAGR of than-normal content increase. Further, we estimate 11.6% CAGR in Adjusted PAT over FY15-
4.5% over FY15-FY18E.
18E mainly on account of EBITDA margin expansion. Moreover, we believe that the company
would report improvement in its ROE and ROCE on the back of healthy profitability coupled
with strong revenue growth. While ROE is likely to improve from 15.2% in FY16E to 18.7% in
FY18E, ROCE is projected to increase from 22.6% in FY16E to 27.1% in FY18E.

Revenue to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% over FY15-FY18E Return Ratios expected to improve
35%
16,000 25%
30% 28.9%
14,000 27.1%
12,000 18.5% 19.5% 20% 25% 24.6%
Rs. Crores

16.4% 16.5% 22.6%


10,000 15% 20% 20.0%
12.8% 13.8% 18.7%
8,000 17.0%
11.3% 11.1% 10% 15% 15.2%
6,000
4,000 10%
5%
2,000 5%
- 0%
0%
FY15* FY16E FY17E FY18E
FY15* FY16E FY17E FY18E

Revenue EBITDA Margin (%) Adj. PAT Margin (%) ROE (%) ROCE (%)

Source: Company, In-house research; *: FY15 is a 15 month period due to change in accounting year

Key Risks:
1 Slowdown in CV space may affect the revenue growth.
2 Any delay in implementation of advanced emission norms.
3 Upward revision in royalty rates may impact margins.

For private circulation only


Profit & Loss Account Balance Sheet
Y/E (Rs.Cr) FY15* FY16E FY17E FY18E Profit
Y/E & Loss Account
(Rs.Cr) (Consolidated)
FY15* FY16 FY17E FY18E
Total operating Paid up capital 31 31 31 31
12,086 10,705 11,720 13,800
Income
Profit & Loss Account (Consolidated) Reserves and
Raw Material cost 6,457 5,654 6,179 7,169 7,316 8,224 9,390 10,883
Surplus
Employee Cost 1,663 1,375 1,505 1,772
Net worth 7,347 8,256 9,421 10,915
Other operating
1,984 1,906 1,870 2,175 Minority Interest - - - -
expenses
EBITDA 1,981 1,770 2,166 2,685 Total Debt 56 35 15 15
Depreciation 548 399 448 493 Other non-current
479 526 579 637
EBIT 1,433 1,372 1,719 2,192 liabilities
Interest cost 14 5 2 2 Total Liabilities 7,881 8,817 10,015 11,567
Other income 565 399 464 563 Total fixed assets
1,244 1,345 1,497 1,605
Profit before tax 1,984 1,765 2,181 2,753 (inc CWIP)
Tax 618 577 676 854 Goodwill - - - -
Profit after tax 1,366 1,188 1,505 1,900 Investments 2,890 2,890 2,890 2,890
Minority Interests - - - -
Net Current
P/L from Associates - - - - 3,112 3,925 4,946 6,364
assets
Adjusted PAT 1,366 1,188 1,505 1,900
Other non-current
E/oincome/ (Expense) (28) - - - 636 658 682 709
assets
Reported Profit 1,338 1,188 1,505 1,900
Total Assets 7,881 8,817 10,015 11,567

Cash Flow Statement Key Ratios

Y/E (Rs.Cr) FY15* FY16E FY17E FY18E Y/E FY15* FY16E FY7E FY18E
Pretax profit 1,956 1,765 2,181 2,753 Valuation (x)
Depreciation 548 399 448 493 P/E 58.4 53.1 41.9 33.2
Chg in Working EV/EBITDA 39.4 34.3 27.6 21.8
132 (224) (130) (257)
Capital EV/Net Sales 6.6 5.8 5.2 4.4
Others (551) (394) (462) (561) P/B 10.9 7.6 6.7 5.8
Tax paid (691) (577) (676) (854) Per share data (Rs.)
Cash flow from EPS 434.9 378.4 479.2 605.0
1,394 969 1,360 1,574
operating activities DPS 85.0 74.0 89.7 107.5
Capital expenditure (409) (500) (600) (600)
BVPS
Chg in investments (446) - - - 2,339.8 2,629.1 3,000.4 3,476.0
Other investing Growth (%)
(325) 399 464 563
cashflow Net Sales 37.9 (11.3) 9.5 17.8
Cash flow from EBITDA 53.7 (10.7) 22.4 24.0
(1,180) (101) (136) (37)
investing activities Net Profit 54.4 (13.0) 26.6 26.3
Equity Operating Ratios (%)
- - - -
raised/(repaid) EBITDA Margin 16.4 16.5 18.5 19.5
Debt raised/(repaid) (28) (20) (20) - EBIT Margin 11.9 12.8 14.7 15.9
Dividend paid (202) (280) (339) (406) PAT Margin 11.3 11.1 12.8 13.8
Other financing Return Ratios (%)
(9) (5) (2) (2)
activities RoE 20.0 15.2 17.0 18.7
Cash flow from RoCE 28.9 22.6 24.6 27.1
(238) (305) (361) (409)
financing activities Turnover Ratios (x)
Net chg in cash (23) 563 863 1,129 Net Sales/GFA 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.1
* Change in accounting year, FY15 is a 15 month period Sales/Total Assets 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0
Note: Assuming company to receive shareholders approval for the sale of starter motors Sales/Working Capital 10.0 7.8 7.4 7.6
& generators division. But, we haven’t included any Profit/Loss from the sale of this Liquidity&Solvency Ratios (x)
division. Further, assuming the company to carve out this division by the end of June Current Ratio 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.1
2016.
Net Debt/Equity (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4)

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Rating Criteria

Large Cap. Return Mid/Small Cap. Return


Buy More than equal to 10% Buy More than equal to 15%
Hold Upside or downside is less than 10% Accumulate* Upside between 10% & 15%
Reduce Less than equal to -10% Hold Between 0% & 10%
Reduce/sell Less than 0%.
* To satisfy regulatory requirements, we attribute ‘Accumulate’ as Buy and ‘Reduce’ as Sell.

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In compliance with the above mentioned SEBI Regulations, the following additional disclosures are also provided which may be
considered by the reader before making an investment decision:

For private circulation only


1. Disclosures regarding Ownership
Dion confirms that:
(i) Dion/its associates have no financial interest or any other material conflict in relation to the subject company (ies)
covered herein at the time of publication of this report.

(ii) It/its associates have no actual / beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company (ies) covered
herein at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this report.

Further, the Research Analyst confirms that:


(i) He, his associates and his relatives have no financial interest in the subject company (ies) covered herein, and they
have no other material conflict in the subject company at the time of publication of this report.

(ii) he, his associates and his relatives have no actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject
company (ies) covered herein at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this report.

2. Disclosures regarding Compensation:


During the past 12 months, Dion or its Associates:
(a) Have not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company (b) Have not received any compensation
for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company (c) Have not received any
compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject .
(d) Have not received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with this report
3. Disclosure regarding the Research Analyst’s connection with the subject company:

It is affirmed that I, Rohit Joshi employed as Research Analyst by Dion and engaged in the preparation of this report have not served
as an officer, director or employee of the subject company
4. Disclosure regarding Market Making activity:
Neither Dion /its Research Analysts have engaged in market making activities for the subject company.

Copyright in this report vests exclusively with Dion.

Dion Global Solutions Limited, Registered Office: 54, Janpath, New Delhi – 110001, India. CIN: L74899DL1994PLC058032, Website:
www.dionglobal.com. Scrip code with BSE: 526927. SEBI Registration No. INH100002771. Compliance Officer Details: Ms. Rinki Batra,
Tel.: 91-120-4894813, Fax No. 0120-4894854 or E-mail: rinki.batra@dionglobal.com

For private circulation only

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