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BSE Code: 500530 NSE Code: BOSCHLTD Reuters Code: BOSH.NS Bloomberg Code: BOS:IN
offers ~Rs 5,000 crores opportunity annually. Hence, we expect FI segment to P/BV (x) 10.9 7.6 6.7 5.8
grow at a CAGR of 18.3% over FY15-FY18E. The commitment of government to ROE (%) 20.0 15.2 17.0 18.7
combat pollution would lead to content increase with common-rail in BS IV
One year Price Chart
(2017) and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) in BS VI (2020). Moreover, major
150
competitors such as Delphi and Denso do not have presence in India with SCR, a
100
key technology for BS VI. Going forward, this would boost realisations for Bosch.
50
Non-Auto business aids in providing revenue diversification: During
0
CY11-FY15, the non-auto business grew at a CAGR of 13.3%. While non-auto
Jul-15
Jun-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Apr-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
May-15
business of Bosch Ltd contributes ~12% to the overall revenues, global non-auto
business’ contribution is ~32%. This business has a robust growth potential and BOSCHLTD NIFTY
is expected to benefit from the pick up in the economic activity. We expect this
business to grow at a CAGR of 15.2% over FY15-FY18E. Shareholding Pattern Dec-15 Sep-15 Chg.
Valuation: Bosch is in a sweet spot given its leadership position, technology
focus and unique positioning in the Indian auto industry. We expect revenue and Promoters (%) 71.2 71.2 0.0
PAT to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% and 11.6% over FY15-FY18E. Further, we rate the FII (%) 7.7 8.4 (0.7)
stock as ‘BUY’ assigning a forward P/E of 36.5x (given acceleration in growth
DII (%) 11.5 11.0 0.5
trajectory due to advanced emission norms) arriving at a target price of Rs.
22,083 which implies potential upside of ~10% for next 12 months. Others (%) 9.6 9.5 0.1
Non-Auto, 12%
Automotives
Products, 88%
Bosch caters to ~40% of Indian auto ancillary industry Bosch’s revenue growth is in sync with auto industry volumes
Others, 7% Engine 50.0 39.6
Electrical Parts, 13.9
Parts, 9% 28.2 6.0 10.0
Equipments, 31% 1.0
9.1
(%)
10% 0.0 -1.0 5.0
Suspension & -5.8
Braking Parts,
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
12% Drive -50.0
Transmission
Body & & Steering Automotive Industry Volume Growth (%)
Chassis, Parts, 19% Bosch Net Sales Growth (%)
12%
Source: Company, In-house research
Source: ACMA, In-house research
BS II BS III BS IV
Implementation 40%
Implementation Implementation
28% 27%
22% 23%
20% 18%
13% 6% 5% 6% 1% 10% 11% 9%
FY15 (Adj)
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E
CY03
CY04
CY05
CY06
CY07
CY08
CY09
CY10
CY11
CY12
CY13
Source: Company, In-house research
Pricing power to remain intact on the back of leadership position & technological
excellence
Bosch has a dominant ~70% market share in India for diesel fuel injection products. It has
been the leading provider of groundbreaking automotive technologies and services for over
nine decades in India. Being a dominant player in fuel injection (FI) segment, FI products
contribute ~70% to the company’s revenue.
Bosch Ltd enjoys the benefits of its global parent’s strong technology dominance and,
thereby, has a higher new product acceptance rate among OEMs. Over years, Bosch Ltd has
Bosch Group offers most of its imported newer technologies in the wake of emission changes, which have helped it to cater
technologies at a low royalty to the Indian market. Bosch Ltd has generally followed the policy of importing the technology
rate (~1.6% of its turnover) to and then gradually localising it as its acceptance increases in the market.
the Indian arm. The Bosch Group enjoys a strong technological leadership in fuel injection systems and is a
trusted ancillary partner for most global auto manufactures. This is on account of the huge
R&D spend that is carried out by Bosch Global. In 2014, the Bosch Group spent ~5 billion
euros (around 10% of sales revenue) and filed 4,593 patents worldwide. Interestingly, Bosch
Group (parent) offers most of its technologies at a low royalty rate (~1.6% of its turnover) to
Bosch Ltd.
The major competitors of Bosch Global are Delphi & Denso Corp. Both these competitors
supply products in segments ranging from fuel injection systems to exhaust systems.
However, Bosch Global remains the leader in the space. More importantly, in India, both the
competitors have limited penetration.
EBITDA margins have remained steady above 15% for all years (except CY13) in the last 5
years. Given its leadership in technology, it is expected that pricing power would be
maintained going forward.
Non-Auto
8%
5%
CY12 CY13 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E
Source: Company, In-house research; Note: FY15 is a 15 month period due to change in accounting year
3,500
(Rs. Crores)
2,500
3,323
1,500 2,327 2,746
1,917 1,965 2,024
500
CY12 CY13 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E
Source: Company, In-house research; Note: FY15 is a 15 month period due to change in accounting year
Revenue and PAT to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% and 11.6% respectively over FY15-18E
During FY15-FY18E, we expect the top-line of the company to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% on the
We expect top-line of the back of regulation requirements (BS IV in 2017 & BS VI in 2020) which will lead to greater-
company to grow at a CAGR of than-normal content increase. Further, we estimate 11.6% CAGR in Adjusted PAT over FY15-
4.5% over FY15-FY18E.
18E mainly on account of EBITDA margin expansion. Moreover, we believe that the company
would report improvement in its ROE and ROCE on the back of healthy profitability coupled
with strong revenue growth. While ROE is likely to improve from 15.2% in FY16E to 18.7% in
FY18E, ROCE is projected to increase from 22.6% in FY16E to 27.1% in FY18E.
Revenue to grow at a CAGR of 4.5% over FY15-FY18E Return Ratios expected to improve
35%
16,000 25%
30% 28.9%
14,000 27.1%
12,000 18.5% 19.5% 20% 25% 24.6%
Rs. Crores
Revenue EBITDA Margin (%) Adj. PAT Margin (%) ROE (%) ROCE (%)
Source: Company, In-house research; *: FY15 is a 15 month period due to change in accounting year
Key Risks:
1 Slowdown in CV space may affect the revenue growth.
2 Any delay in implementation of advanced emission norms.
3 Upward revision in royalty rates may impact margins.
Y/E (Rs.Cr) FY15* FY16E FY17E FY18E Y/E FY15* FY16E FY7E FY18E
Pretax profit 1,956 1,765 2,181 2,753 Valuation (x)
Depreciation 548 399 448 493 P/E 58.4 53.1 41.9 33.2
Chg in Working EV/EBITDA 39.4 34.3 27.6 21.8
132 (224) (130) (257)
Capital EV/Net Sales 6.6 5.8 5.2 4.4
Others (551) (394) (462) (561) P/B 10.9 7.6 6.7 5.8
Tax paid (691) (577) (676) (854) Per share data (Rs.)
Cash flow from EPS 434.9 378.4 479.2 605.0
1,394 969 1,360 1,574
operating activities DPS 85.0 74.0 89.7 107.5
Capital expenditure (409) (500) (600) (600)
BVPS
Chg in investments (446) - - - 2,339.8 2,629.1 3,000.4 3,476.0
Other investing Growth (%)
(325) 399 464 563
cashflow Net Sales 37.9 (11.3) 9.5 17.8
Cash flow from EBITDA 53.7 (10.7) 22.4 24.0
(1,180) (101) (136) (37)
investing activities Net Profit 54.4 (13.0) 26.6 26.3
Equity Operating Ratios (%)
- - - -
raised/(repaid) EBITDA Margin 16.4 16.5 18.5 19.5
Debt raised/(repaid) (28) (20) (20) - EBIT Margin 11.9 12.8 14.7 15.9
Dividend paid (202) (280) (339) (406) PAT Margin 11.3 11.1 12.8 13.8
Other financing Return Ratios (%)
(9) (5) (2) (2)
activities RoE 20.0 15.2 17.0 18.7
Cash flow from RoCE 28.9 22.6 24.6 27.1
(238) (305) (361) (409)
financing activities Turnover Ratios (x)
Net chg in cash (23) 563 863 1,129 Net Sales/GFA 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.1
* Change in accounting year, FY15 is a 15 month period Sales/Total Assets 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0
Note: Assuming company to receive shareholders approval for the sale of starter motors Sales/Working Capital 10.0 7.8 7.4 7.6
& generators division. But, we haven’t included any Profit/Loss from the sale of this Liquidity&Solvency Ratios (x)
division. Further, assuming the company to carve out this division by the end of June Current Ratio 2.2 2.6 2.8 3.1
2016.
Net Debt/Equity (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) (0.4)
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