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9
Performance Monitoring
Indicators Handbook
AGRICULTURE
4 - i',
3g1, AIUSTMUENT
I
EDUCATION
ENVIRONMENT
FMANCIAI
SECTOR
- -x.t - : @HOUSING
AND
UR_AN
DEVELOPMENT
_.USTRY
AND
MINING
} - _ t ~~~~~~~~~~~~~OIll
AND
GAS
POPULAnON,
HEALTH.
* a _ i: ANDNUrRMON
? POVERTYREDUCTION
DEVELOPMENT
_ SECTOR
-1 ',Wiiun MANAGEMENT
TECHNICAL
ASSISTANCE
TELECOMMUNICATIONS
TRANSPORT
- AND
WASTEWATER
RobertolIosse
Leigh Ellen Sontheimer
RECENT WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPERS
Performance Monitoring
Indicators Handbook
RobertoMosse
Leigh Ellen Sontheimer
The WorldBank
Washington,D. C.
Copyright © 1996
The International Bank for Reconstruction
and Development/THE WORLDBANK
1818H Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20433,U.S.A.
ISSN: 0253-7494
Both authors work in the Bank's Operations Policy Group in the Operations Policy Department. Robert Mosse is
operations adviser; Leigh Ellen Sontheimer is a consultant.
FOREWORD V
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS VI
iii
Appraisalandnegotiations 21
Implementation andsupervision 21
Evaluation 21
Performance indicators
andprojectmanagement 21
Field-level
implementers 22
Implementation unitmanagers 22
BorrowerofficialsandBankstaff 23
Somerelatedissues 23
Goodpracticein monitoringandevaluation 23
Datacollection and management 24
Institutional
arrangements
andcapacitybuilding 25
Feedback frommonitoringandevaluation
effortsandinterpreting
indicators 25
Relationtoloancovenants 26
Workingat crosspurposes 26
Lastword 27
Notes 27
EXAMPLES OF INDICATORS 3 1
Table1 HondurasBasicEducation Project
(SAR13791-HO, March8, 1995) 32
Table
2 Indonesia
RuralElectrification
Project
(SAR12920-IND, February3, 1995) 33
Table
3 Indonesia:
Second Agricultural
ResearchManagement
Project
(SAR13933-IND, April21, 1995) 35
Table4 Lithuania
SiauliaiEnvironmentProject
(SAR14981-LT,November 9, 1995) 37
Table5 PeruRuralRoadsRehabilitationandMaintenance
Project
(SAR14939-PE, November 6, 1995) 38
Table6 ThePhilippines
Women's HealthandSafeMotherhood
Project
(SAR13566-PH, January27, 1995) 40
Table7 VenezuelaAgricultural
ExtensionProject
(SAR13591-VE,March7, 1995) 42
Table8 Chad:Structural
Adjustment Credit
(President's
ReportP-6785-CD) 43
Table9 Morocco:FinancialMarketsDevelopment Loan
(President's
ReportP-6633-MOR) 45
iv
FOREWORD
Myrna Alexander
Director,OperationsPolicy
May 1996
V
ACKNOWLE DGME NTS
vi
PERFORMANCE MONITORING
INDICATORS
Whatareperformance
monitoring
indicators?
Whyareperformance
monitoring
indicators
important?
In recentyearsseveralimportantstudies-mostnotablythe PortfolioManagement
TaskForceReportand reviewsby the OperationsEvaluationDepartment(OED)-
havefound that the monitoringand evaluationof Bank-financed projectsdid not focus
adequatelyon the factorsthat are criticalfor positivedevelopmentimpact.Boththe
taskforce and OEDconcludedthat performanceindicatorsshouldbe integratedwith
the monitoringand evaluationproceduresusedby the Bankand itsborrowers.
1
Withoutappropriate feedback, noneof thepartiesconcerned with projectoutcomes
couldmakeappropriate, informed decisionsaboutwhetherandhowto adjustproject
designor implementation arrangements to betterachievea project's
intended
objectives.A relatedproblemisthattheobjectives themselves areoftennotwellthought
outor clearlyarticulated,cloudingthedevelopment of appropriateperformance moni-
toringindicatorsandmakingmonitoring andevaluation evenmoredifficult.
Further,thetaskforcepointedoutthattheBank'straditionalmethodof appraisal
and evaluation of development impact-thecalculation of economic rateof returnor
netpresent value-cannotbe appliedto all projectsandthatforsomeprojects,a
meaningful cost-benefit
analysisis notfeasible.Evenfor projectsfor whichnetpresent
valueor economic rateof returnis calculated,
Bankpracticeis to calculateit onlya
fewtimes-duringappraisal,duringa midtermreview,uponrestructuring if
necessary, andat thetimeof theImplementation Completion Report.Neitherthecal-
culationsnorthecriticalvariablesthataffectthemaremonitored explicitlythroughout
implementation.Moreover, thereportpointedout,in manyinstances costsandbene-
fitscouldbe moreeasilyidentifiedandmeasured withperformance indicators.
Thetaskforceconcluded thattheBank'sprojectratingmethodology andsupervision
reportingsystemshouldbe adaptedto include theuseof projectperformance monitor-
ing indicators
derivedfroma project's development objectivesandimplementation plan.
2
bettermonitorprogresstowarda project'sdevelopmentobjectives.Managementalso
recognizedthat the Bankneededto developsector-specific indicatorsto help borrow-
ersand Bankstaffdefineprojectobjectivesmorenarrowlyand to derivelogicalmea-
suresof projectoutcomesand impactin orderto measureachievement of project
objectives.TheBankalso neededto supportthe useof indicatorsin the revisedproject
rating system.Thereforethe actionplan calledfor the sectordepartments withinthe
CentralVice Presidencies indicatorsthatare mostrele-
to developsetsof sector-specific
vantto projectdesignand monitoring-the sectornoteson indicatorsdiscussedin the
secondpart of thishandbook.Staffwouldthenbe requiredto ensurethat key sector-
specificprojectimpactindicatorswere identifiedin projectappraisaldocumentation
and that progresswas monitoredagainstthesebenchmarks.
Lessons
LeslieStewort,andJamieAdrian,'PerformanceMeosurement:
1. ThomasJ. Cook,JerryVanSant, Learned
Management,'WorldDevelopment
for Development 23181:1303-15
(19951.
3
Forthepurposes of theBankanditsclientsthemostsignificant benefitsof performance
indicators accruein projectdesign(strategic planning), projectsupervision andmonitor-
ing (forecasting andprojectevaluation
results), (measuring resultsandqualitymanage-
ment).Theneededinformation anddatacollection egfortsbecome evidentasproject
objectives areformulated. Ina performance monitoring system, indicatorsserveastools
for measuring theflow ofchange.Baselines arethevaluesof performance indicators at
thebeginning of theplanningperiod;targetsarethevaluesat theend.
Thebenefits of indicators comefromtheirmeasurability andfromtheirdirectderiva-
tionfromprojectobjectives, whicharegroundedin sector, economic, risk,andbenefi-
ciaryanalysis.Indicators linka project's
specifically inputsandactivities withquantified
measures of expected outputs and impact.Beforeselecting indicators,theborroweror
projectimplementation unitandtheBankmustconsider whichmeasures of
performance will tellthemwhetherandhowa project's proposed objectives arebeing
achieved andwhowill benefit-thereby contributingto a moreprecise definition of the
objectives.Borrowers andtheBankmustalsoaskwhetherthenecessary dataareavail-
ableanddecidewhatusersshoulddo in response to theindicatoroutcomes.
With indicators, monitoring andevaluation is morecompelling because it isobjec-
tive,notbasedon personal judgments or puredescription. Furthermore, indicators
holda project'sultimate goalsclearlyin viewthroughout implementation. If designed
and usedcorrectly, indicatorsmeetthespecificinformation needs and scope of
authorityof all thepartiesconcerned withimplementation-field staff,implementation
unit,borrower,taskmanager, and Bank management. The implementation unitandits
subunits are mostinterested-andin a betterpositionto respondto-indicatorsof
inputs,riskfactors,andoutputs.TheBankanditsborrowers are mostinterested in
indicators of output,outcome, anddevelopment impact.Thustheindicatorshelpall
partiesfocuson theareasof greatest concern them.
to
indicatorsdeveloped?
monitoring
Howare performance
of individualprojects.3
Performance indicators mustbe basedontheuniqueobjectives
Butanysetof performance shouldalsobe basedon an underlying
indicators logical
framework thatlinksprojectobjectiveswith project components and theirrespective
implementation
andoutputsat different
inputs,activities, stages.Theframework is
objective-driven,sinceanyaction undera project should be aimed at achieving its
objectives.Giventheproject'sdevelopment objectives, thebestmixof outputs to
achievetheseobjectives andcomponents that will yieldthese outputs are derived. A
generalschematic of thepointofviewof thelogicalframework is shownin box2.
Understanding howto deriveperformance indicators from a project'sobjectives and
components requires someunderstanding of theconcept of thelogicalframework.
4
Box2. Pointofviewofthelogicl
framework
DEvELoWaq
OSECUnE
Describes
the proiect'srealoutcome-theimpacthattheproject'soutputswill hae on the
beneficiary,institution,
or system
in termsof changedbehavioror improvedperwformrc.
Thedevelopment
objectivedefinestheprojectssuccess.
PROJECT
OUuws
Definewhattheprojectcan6e helddirectlyaccountable
for producing-theprojeds deliv-
erables thegoodsand services
it will produce.Typically,
outputsare indepwdnt, synergis-
tic, andintegrated.
Clusters
of ac6ivifies
that rdefine
howvtheproductsand services 6e deli-YOO(hchnical
Wfill
ossistance,
physicalinfrastructure,
and the lilke).
Source:TeamTechnologies,Inc.
e Setproperobjectives
* Defineindicatorsof success
Identifykey activityclusters(projectcomponents)
* Define critical assumptionson which the projectis based
* Identifymeansof verifyingprojectaccomplishments
* Defineresourcesrequiredfor implementation.
5
Ibx3. Advantages
and
lihitations
ofusing
thelogkal
framework
method
ADVANTAGES LMTA11ONS
* Ensuresthatfundamental queshonsareasked * May giveriseto rigidityin projectadministra-
andweaknesses are analyzedin orderto provide tionwhenobjectives andextemalfactorsspecified
decisionmakerswith betterand morerelevant at the outsetare overemphasized.
Thiscon be
information. avoidedby regularprojectreviewsat whichthe
keyelements canbe reevaluated
and adjusted.
* Guidessystematicandlogicalanalysisof the
interrelated
elementsthatconstitute
a . As a generalanalytictool,is policyneutralon
well-designedproject. questionsof incomedistribution,employment
opportunities,accessto resources,local
* Improves
planning6y highlightinglinkages participation,costandfeasibilityof strategies
and
technology,
andeffectson theenvironment. betweenprojectelements andextemcal factors.
* Mayfacilitatecommunication
between
govemments anddonoragenciesonceit has
beenadoptedby moreinstitutions.
* Results-oriented
management.Projectsbeginwith a setof objectivesratherthan
components,and successis measuredby the degreeto which developmentobjec-
tives havebeenmet.Managementis heldaccountablefor results.
* Basicscientificmethod.Projectsare experiments undertakenin an uncertainworld.
Fromthispoint of view a projectis a structuredprocessfor learningabout what
producesresults.Thisperspectiveassumes that projectsare learningsystems.
* Systems analysis.A project,like a system,is notdefineduntilwe havedefinedthe
largersystemof whichit is a part.Projectstakeplacenot in a vacuumbut in a rela-
tionship with an external environmentof organizations, institutions,and other projects.
* Contractlaw. Everycontract(project)hasthesamebasicfeatures:
. A setof deliverables(outputs)
. Circumstances thatconstituteforcemajeure(assumptions)
. A meetingof the mindsabout what thedeliverableswill produce
(development objective).
* Causeand effect.Thecoreconceptunderlyingthelogicalframeworkis causeand
effect.Thebetterthecauseand effectlinkagesbetweenobjectives,the betterthepro-
jectdesign.Bydefinition,eachprojecthasthisif-thenor causeand effectlogic
embeddedin it. If theprojectproducescertainoutcomes undercertainconditions,
6
thenit canbe expected to achieve certainotheroutcomes. Forexample, if theproject
suppliesfarmers withimproved seedandputsa creditsystem in place,andassuming
thereisadequate rainfall,thenproductionwill increase.
Thelogicalframework forces
projectplanners to makethiscauseandeffectlogicexplicit,butit doesnotguarantee
a gooddesign.Thevalidityof thecauseandeffectlogicdepends onthequalityand
experience of thedesignteam.
Importance of clarifyingassumptions
Assumptions are riskandenablingfactors-external conditionsthatare outsidethe
directcontrolof theproject(figure1).Achieving objectives
candependon whether
assumptions holdtrue.Assumptions aremadeaboutthedegreeof uncertainty
(degreeof risk)betweendifferentlevelsof objectives. Thelowertheuncertainty that
certainassumptions will holdtrue,thestronger theprojectdesign.Failingassumptions
canderaila projectasoftenaspoorlyexecuted outputs.
If causeandeffectrelationships are thecoreconceptof goodprojectdesign,nec-
essaryand sufficient conditions are thecorollary.Thecauseand effectrelationships
betweenlevelsin theproject'shierarchy of objectives(inputsto outputs,outputsto out-
comesand impact,impactto relevance) describethenecessary conditionsfor achiev-
ing development objectives (fordefinitionof termsseepages12-13). Thisis the
internallogicof theproject.
Alsoimportant arethesufficient conditions at eachlevelfor achievingthenext
higherlevel(conditions in whichthenextobjectivecanbe met).Thesufficient condi-
Figure external
1. Assumptions/risks
obout factors
must
also
bemade
expliet
Development Assumptions/
objective Risks
/ Otput s tAssumptions/
Components t Assumplios/\
~Ri
spks
IIF | >AND \
7
tionsbetweenlevelsin thehierarchyof objectives Thisis the
are theassumptions.
hierarchy(necessary
externallogicof theproject.Theobjectives plusthe
conditions)
assumptions together
conditions)
(sufficient giveonea muchclearerideaof thepro-
ject'sdesign.Thisiswhatthelogicalframework graphicallyrepresents.
Organizingthehierarchyof objectives
Thelogicalframework presents schematicallythehierarchyof projectobjectives, the
performance for measuring
indicators theachievement of eachobjective,themeans
of verifyingeachindicator,andtheassumptions (riskandenablingfactors)criticalto
achievingthenextobjectivelevel.Box4 illustrates a samplelogicalframework for a
nutritionandchilddevelopment projectin Uganda.
Therelationshipsamongprojectobjectives-andtheneedfor performance informa-
tion-can bealsobe clarifiedbygraphically depicting theoverallprogramlogicand
performance expectations tree(figure2).Thetreebeginswiththeover-
in an objectives
archingdevelopment objectives of a project(consistent of theCoun-
withtheobjectives
try Assistance liststhelower-level
Strategy), outputs throughwhichtheseobjectives are
8
Box4. Logkaifromework
fortheUganda
Nutrition
andChildDevelopmen
Prsct
NARRA suMRY
I PEWORMANCNDICATORS MONTOING AND RSUbSIO4N ASSmwPT AmD mS6
IMPACT (impactto relevance)
* Improvedhealth,nurition, * Reduced
prevalence of protein * Noainal anthropomeiric * Oiler nationalprogramsin heath
andcogniivestatusof young energymalnutrition-measured by survey (Immunizoaion, primaryhealhcore),
children underweight
preschoolchildren- food production, primaryeducaionare
from25%to 13%by 2003 sustained; synergy with then programs
will achieve higherprojedimpoct
Reduced micronuirient
deficiency * Demogrophicandhealth
problems(IDMprevalence reduced survey
by 50%in endemicareas,anemia
in childrenreducedto 33%,wormlood
reducedto 50%,andxeophthalmia
reducedio 2%by 2003)
* Netenrollment in grode 1 * Schoaenrollment
records
increased to 80%by 2003
OUTPUTS (outputtooutcome)
* Established
community-based * Numberof childrenandwomen * Projedc
monitoringsurvey, * Decentralizoaion
policyimplemented
childcareprogram who participatedin program household surveys
* Numberof healthday * Project
monitoring
outreacheffortslounched reports
* Numberof ECDdaycorecenters * Projedc
monitoringreports
established
* Established
micronutrient * NumberoFvitaminA capsules, . Projecmonitaringreports * Distridgovernments
continuesupport
program iron tabletsdistributed
. Percentgeof saltiodized * Surveysompleof swtsold
* Established
women'sincome * Numberof womenwho received * Projedmonitaringreports
component trainingin skillsfor livelihood/
childcareenterprise
* VitaminA capsules,
irontablet
distributed
* Iodizingof salt
a Deworming compoign
9
Figure
2.Partial troeforahypothetkal
oblectlves chiM proFgm
health
OBJECTIVE Reducechildmortality
Reoding downansvers
IMPACTS Reduced Improved Improved family Expanded thequestions whyand
incidenceof nutrition healthpractices availoble how? -whoat dowe
needto do to achiev
preventable care thisresult?
disease
Increased polio
OUTCOMES Increased
other Increaseduseof
immunizations immunizations oral rehydration
Reading
across
answers
OUTPUTS Expanded Increased Improvedpublic the eshonwhoatese?
school availability
of awareness =at dditional
things
I=
immunizations vaccines
=
doweneed
achieve todo to
thenext
=aobjecthve?
upanswers
Reading the
question
'sawhato?
-what is the
INPUTS Provide Enforce Provide significonce
af our
funds regulations vaccines accomphdshments?
Notethat thisis a partial objectivestree.Only the elements in bold are expandedin thefigure to showthe
variousactivitiesand the intendedoutcomes, outputs,and inputsneededto achievethe projectobjective.
Thesometreatmentcan be applied to all elements in the figureto completethe objectivestree.
Source:AdoptedfromGeraldM. Britan,'Measuring ProgramPerformance for FederalAgencies:Issues
and Opfionsfor Performance Indicators'(Washington,D.C.: U.S.GeneralAccountingOffice).
10
Forexample,"expanded schoolimmunizations" depends, asshown,on "increasing
supplies,""improving training"and"expanding facilities"all,
according to thefigure,
responsibilities
of theproject.It alsodepends on "increased availabilityofvaccines"
and"improved publicawareness," whichcouldbe partof theproject(though thefigure
doesnotshowthat)or partof anotherprojectandtherefore partof theproject's
assumptions andexternalriskfactors.
A toolto conceptualize, design,andappraiseprojects, suchasan objectives tree
or similaranalyticaltool-and theperformance indicators derivedfromit-should not
be considered unchangeable. 7 It shouldbe continually reevaluated duringeach
phaseof projectpreparation, implementation, andevaluation. If theresultsanalyzed
duringprojectimplementation pointto a needto changethemeansof achievingpro-
jectobjectives,themixof inputs(activities to be undertaken) anddefinitionof outputs
shouldbe adjustedandnewindicators derivedto measure thenewlydefinedtargets.
Thegeneralstepsthatgo intoformulating projectobjectives andconstructing the
logicalstructureof a projectare important aspects of theidentification andprepara-
tionstagesof theBank'sprojectcycle(box5).8
Results
indicators
Results
indicatorsmeasure projectresults
relativeto projectobjectives.
Resultsare
measured at theleveldeterminedby a project'sobjectives.Remember thatfollowing
thelogicalframework approach,theyshouldbedefinedstartingwiththeimpactand
outcome indicators(andworkingbackwards to theinputindicators).
Inputindicators
INPUTINDICATORS. measurethequantity(andsometimesthequality)of
resourcesprovidedforprojectactivities.
Depending
on theproject,thesecaninclude:
* Funding-counterpartfunds,Bankloanfunds,cofinancing, grants
* Guarantees
* Humanresources-number of person-yearsfor members of theimplementation
unit,
consultants,
andtechnicaladvisers
* Training
* Equipment,materials,
andsupplies,or recurrent costsof theseitems-forexample,
textbooks,
syringes,
vaccines,classroom facilities.
Outputindicatorsmeasurethe quantity(andsometimes
OUTPUTINDICATORS. the qual-
ity)of thegoodsor services
createdor providedthroughtheuseof inputs.Depending
on theproject,thesecanincludesuchelements as:
11
Box5. Processes
withinthelogical
framework
STEPI PROBLEM
AND BENEFICIARY
ANALYSIS
ThisanalysisaHtempts to answerseveralquestions: What is the problemat stake,and who is involved
in it?What are the needs,expectations, intentions,andmotivationsof thevariousstakeholders,disag-
gregoted6y genderand otherrelevantsocialcriteria?Doestheproblemrequireextemaldevelopment
assistance,
or couldit be resolvedsomeotherway2Thisstepis normallypart of economicand sector
workor of the projectidentificationand preparationexercisewhenthereis noprior economicand
sectorwork, and it contributesto theformulationof the CountryAssistanceStrategy.
STEP2 OBJECTIVES ANALYSIS: CONSIDERATION OF ALTERNATIVESAND PERFORMANCE EXPECTATIONS
Thisstepidentifiesneedsor problemsand transforms themintosolutions-specific, quantifiedobjec-
tives.Eachobjectivemaybebrokendowninto subobjectives and outputsto be achievedat different
stagesof the project.Therearealmostalwaysalternative waysof meetinga projectsobjectives, and
themethodchosenwill affectthe configuration of outputs.Thusconsideration of alternatives
and selec-
tion of themostappropriateis part of thisstep.Consideration oFaltematives entailseconomic,riskand
sensitivity,
cost-effectiveness,
environmentaland socialanalyses,andbeneficiaryconsultation.
Basedon theobjectives analysis,themainprojectelements-comprising thewholelogicalchain,
includingsectorand projectobjectives, plannedoutputs,necessary activities,and theirinputs-can be
graphicallyrepresented in thelogicalframeworkor an objectives tree (seefigures1 and 2).
Eachelement-inputs,activities.,outputs,outcomes, and impacts, and theriskand enablingfactors
thataffectthern-is measuroble. Thisis whereindicatorscomein. Indicatorsthatdefineand measure
eachof theseelements are identifiedduringtheobjectivesanalysisandprojectplanningstage.For this
reasonit is essential
to formulateandexpressprojectobjectives andoutputsin a waythatallowsmea-
surement of bothshort-term and longer-term results.Definitionof anoutput,outcome,or impactobjec-
tiveshouldinclude:
* Targetgroup(for whom)
* Quantityor level(howmuch)
* Quality(in termsof designstandards and environmental or otherimpact)
* Time(whenit shouldbe accomplished)
* Location(whereit shouldhappen)
STEP3 FINALIZATION
OF PROJECT
DESIGNAND INDICATORS
In thisstepplannerscarefullyexaminethe projectto ensurethatall itselements are logicallyrelated.
Planners alsoassesstheintegrityof indicators
and realismof targets at thisstage,takingintoaccount
all projectassumptions
and baseline data, andfinalizetheir plans.
* Clientsvaccinated(by a healthproject)
* Farmersvisited(anextensionproject)
* Miles of roads built (a highwayproject)
* Electricitygenerationand transmission facilitiesinstalled(a rural electrification
project)
* Pollutioncontrolmeasuresinstalledor incentivesor regulationsenforced(a pollu-
tion controlor air or waterquality improvement project).
OUTCOME
ANDIMPACT
INDICATORS.
Outcome and impact indicators measurethe quan-
tity and qualityof the resultsachievedthroughthe provisionof projectgoodsand ser-
vices.Dependingon the kind of project,thesecan include:
12
igure
3. Asystem
ofindicators
RISK
INDICATORS DIRECT
INDICATORS EFFICACY
INDICATORS
Relevance
Riskor enabling factors -- - --------- Sustainability
Inputs
------ Explicit
development
of thesekindsof indicators
is notrequiredforWorldBankprojects.
* Reducedincidenceof disease(throughvaccinations)
* Improvedfarmingpractices(throughextensionvisits)
* Increasedvehicleuseor trafficcounts(throughroad constructionor improvement)
* Increasedrural supplyand consumptionof electricity(throughexpansionof elec-
tricity network)
* Reducedmortalityor lower healthcosts(throughimprovedfamily healthpractices
or improvednutrition,or cleanerair and water)
INDICATORS.Someprojectshaveintendedimpactson higher-orderobjec-
RELEVANCE
tivesthat are not capturedby directoutcomeindicatorssuchas the onesdescribed
above.For instance,someprojectshavenationalor sectoralobjectives,and for them
impactmustbe measuredat thoselevels.Projectsmayalso haveunintended-often
negative-impacts.Thesetoo can be capturedby evaluationstudies.Relevanceindi-
catorsmeasuretrendsin the wider policy problemsthat projectimpactsare expected
to influence.If appropriateto the project,theseindicatorsshouldbe used.Depending
on the project,thesemayinclude:
13
Riskindicators
Riskindicatorsmeasurethe statusof the exogenousfactorsidentifiedas critical
throughthe riskand sensitivityanalysis(riskand enablingfactors)performedas part
of a project'seconomicanalysis.Theseare the factorsthat are determinedto be the
mostlikely to havea directinfluenceon the outcomeof variousaspectsof the project
(for example,economicpricesfor power or competitivesalariesfor projectstaff)-the
assumptions that are madeabout conditionsexternalto the project.A project'sobjec-
tivescan only be achievedif the logical means-endrelationshipof the project
elementsis secureand the externalriskfactorsare favorable.
Efficacyindicators
Efficacyindicatorsshow how well the resultsat one level of project implementation
havebeen translatedinto resultsat the nextlevel: the efficiencyof inputs, effective-
nessof project outputs,and sustainabilityof project impact. They measurea pro-
ject'sefficacy in achieving its objectives,ratherthan its results.The logical
frameworkapproach sometimesusesthesemeasuresin addition to direct indica-
tors of results.
For the Bank'smonitoringpurposes,the measurement of resultsusuallystopswith
impact: Bankstaffare not expectedto measuresustainability,effectiveness, or
efficiencyas part of projectsupervisionor Implementation CompletionReportsbut
ratherto stickto "direct results"indicators.However,efficacyindicatorscan be rele-
vant indicatorsof resultsif efficiency(ofan institution,for example)is a projectobjec-
tive.Moreover,OEDusesthesemeasuresin its evaluationsof projectperformance.It
is for thesereasonsthat thesedescriptionsof indicatorsare includedhere.
EFFECTIVENESS Effectiveness
INDICATORS. indicatorsusuallyrepresentthe ratio of
outputs(or the resourcesusedto producethe outputs)per unit of project outcome
or impact, or the degreeto which outputsaffect outcomesand impacts.For
example:
14
indicatorsrepresent
INDICATORS.Sustainability
SUSTAINABILITY thepersistence
of pro-
jectbenefits
overtime,particularly
afterprojectfundingends.Theycouldinclude,for
example:
* Diseaseincidencetrendsafterexternalfundingfor a vaccinationprojectends
* Persistence
of changedfarmingpractices afterextensionvisitsare completed
* Maintenance anduseof roadsafterhighwayconstruction ends
* Persistence
of institutions
(programs,
organizations, relationships,
andsoon)cre-
atedto deliverprojectbenefits.
Information
on performanceasmeasured by impact,outcome, output,input,efficacy, Waysof measuring
andriskindicators
canbe expressedandgatheredin differentways.Thechoiceof performance
indicatorandmeansof collection
dependon dataavailability,timeconstraints,
and
cost-benefit
considerations
aswellastherelationshipsbetween thevariables.
Directmeasures
Directmeasures correspond precisely to results
at anyperformance level.Forinstance,
quantities
of goodsdeliveredorcountsof clientsservedaredirectmeasures of output,
instances
of changein beneficiary behaviorarea directmeasure of projectoutcome,
anda decrease in infantmortalityisa directmeasure of projectimpact.A givenvari-
ablecouldpossibly serveasan indicatorof results at anyof variouslevels(input,out-
put,outcome, or impact)depending on theprojectobjectives.
Indirectmeasures
Indirectmeasures correspond lesspreciselythandirectmeasures to theperformance
sought.Theyare oftenusedwheredirectmeasures aretoodifficult,inconvenient,or
costlyto obtain.Indirectmeasures arebasedon a knownrelationship betweenthe
performance variableandthemeasure chosento express
it-for example,using
lowerfarmgatepricesasan indirectindicatorof increased agriculturalproductivity,
usingdecliningfreightor taxitariffsasan indirectmeasureof decreasing trafficcon-
gestion,or usingreducednumbers of consumercomplaintsasan indirectindicatorof
improvedcustomer processing.
Earlypointers:intermediate andleadingindicators
At timesinformation on likelyprojectresultsis neededbeforefinalperformance data
are available.At othertimesit isimportant to gaugewhethera projectis on track
eventhoughfinalresultshavenotyetbeenachieved.Inbothcasesintermediate or
leadingindicators canprovidean earlyassessment of performance (figure4).
Intermediateindicators measure intermediate resultsor intervening stepstoward
projectobjectives.Theyusuallymeasure changes associated with theultimateimpact
soughtbutfor whichinformation canbe obtainedearlier.Forexample, fertilizerpur-
chasescouldbe usedasa preliminary indicatorof changedfarmingpractices, or
increased nutritional
knowledge asan indicatorof improvedeatingpractices. Two
pointsmustbe keptin mind,however. First,intermediateindicators oftenrepresent
15
Figure
4. Early
pointers
Developmentobjective
Sustainable
timberproduction
-4 CL~ ~ ~~C
0 3 5 25 years
I I
Lifeof project Actual impact
Source:TeamTechnologies,
Inc.
Quantitativeand qualitativemeasures
FormanyBank-financed projects,indicatorsof impacts,outcomes,outputs,and inputs
are easilyquantified,that is, measuredby definednumericalvalues.Theseare typi-
cally the basisfor calculationsof economicrateof returnor net presentvalueduring
appraisal.Duringimplementation the monitoringand evaluationsystemof the project
or entitybeingfinancedcan providethesedata by recording,for example,the number
of studentsmatriculatedand the rate of repetition,the numberof farmersvisitedby
extensionworkers,or the quantitiesof fuelconsumed,electricitysold,or technical
capacitylost.Dataon kilometersof road maintained,tollscollected,volumeof traffic,
and so on can easilybe collected.In fact, thereis a dangerof collectingtoo much
information.In someinstancesthecostof collectingdata on projectoutcomesis high-
for example,a new systemmayhaveto be developedto measureeducationalattain-
ment.It is importantto determinehow preciseand timelyinformationneedsto be, and
who will collectit and at what cost,beforeinformation-gathering effortsare initiated.
16
A project'soutcomesand impactsmay not manifestthemselvesas directly mea-
surablenumericinformation,however.Theseprojects' effectsmay be felt more in
termsof the attitudesof beneficiaries.For example,do parentsnow have more
input into their children'seducation?Is teachermorale higher?A purely narrative
descriptionof theseeffectsmaybe insufficientto measureresults,however.It may
be necessaryto deviseways of measuringoutcomesand impactsin quantitative
terms,convertingqualitativedescriptionsinto quantitativeinformation.Thisconver-
sion can be achievedusing surveytechniquessuchas beneficiaryassessments,
rapid rural appraisals,or focusgroup interviewswith structuredquestions.The
informationgained throughthesetechniquescan be usedto calculatenominal mea-
sures,rank orderingsof categories,and frequencycounts.Ratioand interval scales
can also be used.Thepotential for quantifying informationon projectresultsshould
not be underestimated.
Measurement scope
Measurementscoperefersto the useof samplepopulations.Performanceindica-
tors sometimesmeasureresultsdirectly for an entire target population(of individu-
als or organizations)throughadministrativerecords,observations,or census
surveys.Often, however,the scopeof measurementis limitedto a sampleof tar-
getsor sites.Thisapproach raisesan additional technicalissue:how reliably can
overall project performancebe statisticallyinferred on the basisof this sample?
Sometimesperformanceis measuredin only one project setting,or in a very few,
as casestudiesinsteadof statisticalsampling.While case studiescan provide use-
ful informationon how projects work (or why theydo not work as expected)and
how theycan be improved,care mustbe taken (evenmore than in the useof sam-
ples)not to assurnethat resultsfrom one site necessarilyrepresentproject perfor-
manceoverall. Accordingly,suchcase studiesare usuallyconductedin the context
of speciol studies(seebelow) ratherthan as a replacementfor broader
performancedata.
Special studies
Sometimesa project's routine monitoringand evaluationdata do not provide suffi-
cient information.If an unexpectedproblemarises,additional in-depthanalysis
through specialstudiescan guide the way toward solving it---and avoiding it in the
future.Specialstudiesare formativeevaluationsof the fundamentalsof problems
and their origins, and in that way differ from monitoring indicators,which are part
of an early warning system.For instance,project managersmight need to learn
moreabout the causal linksamong project outputs,outcomes,and impacts,espe-
cially when indicatorsrevealthat the broader purposesof a project are not being
achievedeventhough its planned outputsare being delivered.In this case some-
thing clearly is wrong: the project logic may be faulty,assumptionsabout risk and
enabling factorsmay be invalid, or somenecessaryinput may be lacking. Special
studiesoften provide importantfeedbackfor project redesignand higher-levelpol-
icy debates.
17
Generalprinciplesfor Threegeneralprinciplesshouldguide the selectionof performanceindicators:indica-
selectingindicators tors mustbe meaningfuland relevant,a reliable systemfor collectingthe requisite
data mustbe developedin a timelyfashion,and the borrower'sinstitutionalcapacity
for usinga monitoringand evaluationsystem-and itswillingnessto do so-must be
takeninto account.Thesegeneralprinciplesimply the followingconsiderations: 9
18
Thesecondindicatoris obviously an outcome,butwhataboutthefirst?Trainingisan
outputof theproject,butit isalsoan inputintoimproving agricultural
practices.This
exampledemonstrates theneedto thinkof indicators in termsof a continuum,with
inputsleadingthroughactivities to certainoutputsthatleadto desiredoutcomes and
impacts.It isnotalwayseasyto distinguish betweenoutputs andoutcomes or
impacts,whereasinputsare usuallystraightforward. Consider a projectthathopesto
improvegirl'semployment prospects by improving theiraccessto formalandvoca-
tionaleducation. An outputindicatorwouldbe thenumberof girlsgraduatingfrom
secondary andvocational schools, an outcomeindicatorwouldbe thenumberof girls
employed fromprojectschools, andan impactindicatorwouldbe theirearningsrela-
tiveto earlierlevelsor relativeto averagecohortearnings.
Whenselecting indicators
duringprojectpreparation andappraisal,theborrower Indicator
benchmarks
(withtheBank'sassistance,asneeded) shouldusebaselinedataandcomparative andinternational
datafromotherprograms to settargetsfor theindicators
it will monitor-thatis,the comparators
minimum valuesthatit expectsto aimfor.Someof theindicatormenusissuedby the
Bank'sCentralVicePresidencies providecomparator valuesasan indicationof what
is highandlow fora givenvariable.Bankstaffshouldconsult therelevantsector
departmentsof theCentralVicePresidencies on theselectionof indicators
for a pro-
jectandshouldseektheiradviceon targets.
Howdo performance
monitoring
indicators
affecttheBank'swork?
Indicators
playan integralrolein theBank'swork,fromeconomic
andsectorwork,
throughtheentireprojectcycle,to ex postevaluation.
Indicators
of sectorperformancecanbe bothderivedfromandusedin theanalysis Economic
and
doneaspartof economic andsectorworkandusedlaterto informprojectdevelop- sector
work
ment,projectimpactmonitoring,andsectormonitoring.Besides
providinga frame-
workfor evaluatingsectorperformance,
sector-specific
performance
indicatorscan
19
helppolicymakers, taskmanagers, andBankstaffrationalizea countryassistance
and lendingstrategy, selectprojectstrategies,
andcreatea frameworkfor monitoring
projectactivities(seebelow).Sectoral indicators,
obtainedfromsectorworkor from
generallyavailablesectordata,areespeciallyusefulduringprojectidentification
and
appraisalto clarifyprojectobjectivesandlaterto assess
impact.
Project
cycle A schematic
representation
of howperformance
monitoring
indicators
fit intothepro-
jectcycleisshownin figure5.
Projectidentification, preparation,andpreappraisal
Projectplanningstartsby definingobjectives thatreflecta project'sdesireddevel-
opmentimpact;theseobjectives maybehierarchically arrangedbuttheyhaveto be
definedin termsof themeasurable targetsonwhichperformance indicatorswill be
based.Theproposed objectives
guidetheselection of a first-roundsetof indicatorsdur-
ingprojectidentification anddesign.
As partof theproblem,beneficiary, andobjectives analyses, severalquestions
shouldbe discussed withtheborrowerandotherstakeholders: Whatarewe tryingto
achieve? Howdo we measure whatwe are achieving? Whattypesof indicators or
measures will we needto develop? Whattargetvaluesshouldwe use?
Theprocess of selectingperformance indicators
helpsborrowers andBankstaff
defineprojectobjectives moreclearly,setmeasurable goals,andensurethata pro-
ject'sactivitiesleadlogicallyto therealizationof itsobjectives. Duringprojectprepa-
rationit is important to developa clearideaof thebaselinevaluesof impact
indicators andtheplannedtargetvaluesfor thedevelopment impactof theproject,as
wellasthemeans for measuringprogress(thelogicalchainof indicators).
ThisactivityhelpstheborrowerandtheBankassess therealismof projectobjec-
tivesanddetermine dataavailabilityandcollection methods for measuring indicators.
(Thenextsection discusses issuesassociated withdefinitionof objectives anddata
measurement.) Concentrating on howto quantifyandmeasure impactat thisstage
helpstheborrowerandtheBankimprovethedesignandconsistency of projectcom-
ponents to achievethedesiredresults ascost-effectively
aspossible. Thiseffortmay
Figure
5. Performance
indicators
andtheproject
cycle
PROJECT
IDENTIFIEATION,
PREPARATION,
PREAPPRAISAL
Performbaseline
studies
Analyzesectoral
doat
Idenlify
riskandenabling
factors
20
also point to the needto developmonitoringcapacity beforeimplementingthe-project
or to buildmonitoring
andevaluation
capacitydevelopment
intotheproject.
Appraisalandnegotiations
Asprojectplanningisfinalized,projectobjectives aretranslated
intospecific
project
components. Indicators
for measuringprogresstowardeachobjective andfor monitor-
ingtheprovision of projectinputsandthestateof riskandenablingfactorsidentified
in
theeconomic andrisksensitivity
analysesare alsofinalizedduringappraisal.
Theimplementation plandeveloped by theborrowerandappraised bytheBank
mustincludetheperformance monitoringindicators-inputs,
outputs, outcome,and
impactindicators-foreachaspectof projectimplementation. Duringappraisalthebor-
rowerandtheBankagreeon no morethanabouta half-dozen of themostimportant
inputandoutputindicators andaboutthesamenumberof outcome andimpactindica-
tors-keyperformance indicators
thattheBankwill monitor.These indicators-as
agreedperformance benchmarks, notcovenanted targets-aresetoutin theproject
appraisaldocumentation andin theBank'slegalagreement withtheentityresponsible
for projectimplementation (seeBankProcedure 10.00,AnnexB andrelated
Operational Memorandums). Incaseswheretargetvaluesarecriticalto theattainment
of projectobjectives,
theborrowerandtheBankmayalsowantto makethema
covenant of theloanagreement (seepage26).
Implementationandsupervision
Duringprojectimplementation theborrowerandprojectimplementation unitmonitor
theindicatorsdeveloped duringprojectdesign,followingthescheduleof theimple-
mentation plan.Duringregularsupervisionmissions andthemidtermreviewtheBank
monitors thekeyindicatorsdefinedandagreedwiththeborrowerat appraisal.These
indicatorsformthebasisfor theBank'smeasures of implementation
performance (IP
ratings)andimpact(development objective,or DO ratings)
on Form590. If theindi-
catorsoriginallydevelopedfortheprojectbecomeinappropriate because external
conditions changeor projectdesignisrestructured,
theBankandborrowerdevelop
new indicatorsto reflectthe changedcircumstances.
Evaluation
Afterimplementationiscompleted,theachievementof projectobjectives
isassessed
usingmeasurable indicators-theoutcomeandimpactindicators developed duringpro-
jectdesign-thatcompare theproject's
actualimpactwithitsintended impact.Theuseof
indicators
removes subjectivity
fromevaluations,givingthema moreobjective basis.
21
Tomeetthedifferentinformation needsof thevariousstakeholders, performance
indicatorsusuallyneedto be hierarchicallystructured.
Thisstructure
can beaccom-
plishedthroughnestednetworks of partiallyoverlappingperformance informationsys-
temsin whichlower-level performance indicatorsare summarized, or selectively
skimmed, asa basisfor higher-level
information.Thefollowingsections describethe
differentperformanceindicatorsandinformation needsof thevariousactorsresponsi-
blefor projectimplementation.(Thisinformationis summarized in box 6.)
Field-levelimplementers
Implementationmanagers are primarilyconcerned with themethods usedto imple-
menta particularprojector programcomponent. Withintheirrelativelynarrowareas
of responsibility,
theyneedto knowthatnecessary inputs(human, financial,andphys-
ical resources)
are availableandthatplannedoutputs(goodsandservices) are being
produced.Theyalsoneedto knowthatresources are beingusedlegitimately,that
financialaccountability
isensured,andthatinputsarebeingefficiently transformed
intooutputs.Implementationmanagers in thefieldalsoneedat leastsomeinformation
on programoutcomes andimpacts;thatis, theyneedto knowtheextentto whichpro-
gramoutputsare achievingtheirintended resultssothattheycanfine-tune project
implementationandmotivateperformance.
Implementationunitmanagers
Themanagers of an implementation
unit(orof whatever
organizational
unitisresponsi-
bleforoverallprojectmanagement)
are usuallyresponsible
for implementing
an entire
Box
6. Project
management
andperformance
information
needs
IMPLEMENTERS
IN THEFIELD
NEED
* Inputindicators
a Outputindicators
* [Efficiency
indicators]
e Riskindicators
* Some
outcome
andimpactindicators
THEIMPLEMENTATION
UNITNEEDS
* Summary inputandoutput including
indicators, site-comparative
indicators
asappropriate
* Outcome indicators,
including
site-comparative asappropriate
indicators
* [Effectiveness
indicators]
* Riskindicators
a Impact
indicators
AND THEBANKNEED
THEBORROWER
* Summary
inputindicators
* Summary
output indicators
a Riskindicators
* Keyoutcome, impact,
[andrelevance]
indicators
e [Sustainability
indicators]
Note: Indicators
inbrackets
arenota required monitoring
partofBank orproject
supervision.
22
programor a majorprojectcomponent.Thisresponsibility involvesa rangeof activities,
oftenacrossa numberof sites,aimedat achievingsomestrategicobjective.Because
thesemanagershavea primaryresponsibility theyshould
for projectimplementation,
play a supportingrole in definingstrategicobjectives,choosingamongthemor articulat-
ingthe underlyingpoliciesfromwhichtheseobjectivesderiveduringprojectpreparation.
Implementation unitmanagersare concernedwith managingtheir programbetter,
selectingand fine-tuningprojectactivitiesto improveoutcomes,and enhancingproject
impact.Thusthey needsummaryinformationon projectinputsand outputs,particularly
comparativeinformationacrosssites,so thattheycan identifyemergingproblemsand
directmanagerialattentionand resourcesto solvingthem.More important,theyneed
comparativeinformationon projectoutcomes.Implementation managersalso needat
leastsomeinformationon projectimpactto validatethe significanceof their project
strategy.
Borrowerofficialsand Bankstaff
Representativesof the borrowerand Bankstaffare primarilyconcernedwith strategic
management. Theyhaveparticipatedin articulatingthe policyassumptions thatunderlie
the projectand the strategicobjectivesthe projectis intendedto achieve.Moreover,
theymustcontinueto pushtheseobjectivesin thecontextof a dynamicexternalenviron-
ment.Thustheyneedsummaryinformationon projectinputsand outputsto be surethat
any emergingimplementation or outcomeproblemsare beingidentifiedand addressed
at appropriateprojectmanagement levelsand to be able to answerquestionsaboutthe
project.Tomanagestrategically,however,borrowersand Bankstaffmostneedcompar-
ative informationon projectoutcomes and impactsand riskfactors.When impactis
measuredin relationto thecostof projectinputs,thisinformationcan alsofeeddirectly
intoa performance-based budgetsystem.Inaddition, in the contextof the CountryPort-
folio Performance Reviewor CountryAssistanceStrategyupdate,the borrowerand
Bankmanagersneed informationon the nationaltrendsto whichprojectsare expected
to contribute.
Somerelatedissues
23
way thattheymayseeevaluation asa requirement afterthemore
to be satisfied
important workof projectimplementationisdone."lTobe effectivemonitoring and
evaluationmustbe addressed duringprojectdesign.Onceprojectplanners have
carefullydefinedthestrategic andselected
objectives logicalindicators,theirnext
consideration for datacollectionandmanagement,
shouldbe therequirements institu-
tionalarrangements andcapacitybuilding,andtheuseof feedbackfromthedata.
Datacollectionandmanagement
Thenatureof a variabledetermines thelogicalsourceof dataaboutit. Indicators of
inputsandof someoutputs of projectactivitiesare derivedprimarilyfromproject
records;however,indicatorsof someoutputs,outcomes, andimpactsmayrequirethat
data becollectedusingsurveys or specialstudies,includingthosethatuseparticipa-
torymethods.Whereit is possible, it is almostalwaysbetterto piggybackregularsur-
veysontoexistingnationallyor internationallysupportedsurveys (suchastheLiving
StandardsMeasurement Study)than to create
a datacollectionfacility.
Specialstud-
iesmaybe managed by theprojectunitdirectlyor subcontracted to a privateentity.
Anyproposalto collectdataforan indicatorrequiresa discussion of:
24
issuesthat stakeholdersand seniorproject managersface, for which performance
data would be useful.Justas performancemeasurement shouldbe fully integrated
with projectdesign,informationgeneratedshouldbe integratedwith the project's
managementstructure.As with any otherprojectcomponent,the benefitsof usingper-
formancedata mustat leastequalthe costof collectingthem.A projectcan provide
the bestinformationat the leastcostby usingexistingdata, samplingtechniques,
rapid appraisal methods,and othercreativecollectionmethods.
A few otherconsiderations about data collectionshouldguidethe designof indica-
tors. Aboveall, thedata shouldmeasureresults,not just processes. Theperformance
measuredby thedata shouldfocuson what the projectis accomplishing,especiallyin
termsof its impacton people.Thepointis not only to knowwhat projectsare doing,
but to knowwhethertheyare doing any good.
Selectivityis desirable.Performance analysisshouldbe limitedto the few areas
that are directlyrelevantto the project'sstrategicobjectives,as definedby the
borrowerand Bank.
Finally,performancemeasurement systemsshouldusedata that are not construed
as threateningby thosewho are reportingit. Simplytelling projectmanagers-
whetherborrowers,Bankstaff,or thoseworkingfor them-to reportdata on their pro-
jectswithoutactivelyinvolvingthemin the performancemeasurement process,without
explaininghow and by whom thedata are going to be used,and withoutassuring
themthat the data will not be usedto judge thempersonallyis likely to be viewedas
threatening.Relyingon sucha compliancemodeof performancemeasurement is
likelyto backfire,not only minimizingmanagerownershipbut also likely producing
bureaucraticresistanceand possiblydata corruption.
Institutionalarrangementsand capacitybuilding
Datacollectionarrangements haveimplicationsfor the institutionalarrangements
betweenthe implementation unit,the borrower,and the Bank.Therationalefor indica-
torsdemandsthatthe indicatordata be of valueto the borrower,not justto the Bank.
A project'soverallmonitoringand evaluationdesignshouldbuild on the reporting
arrangements alreadyusedby theimplementation unitand the borrower,while further
developingthe technicalskillstheyneedto plan informationneeds,designdata collec-
tion, executestudiesand surveys,analyzedata, and reportresultsin a formatthat is
relevantto projectmanagement.If necessary, the Bankcan financetechnical
assistance and equipmentrequiredto designand implementmonitoringand evalua-
tion systemsand to meettrainingneeds.
25
Projectindicatorsare bestinterpretedthroughcomparison.Ideally,impactis evalu-
ated by comparingbaselinedata with projectoutcomes,to providean ideaof what the
indicatorswouldbe if the projecthad not beencarriedout. Butbecausesuchanalysisis
sometimes not practical,analysisof indicatorscan useotherkindsof comparisons:
actualresultsrelativeto targets,beforeand afteranalysis,timeseries(moreillustrative
than simplebeforeand aftercomparisons), or comparisonsof controlgroups.
Trendsor fluctuationsare commonin the valuesthat are usedto measureoutputsor
outcomesand impacts.If thisis the case,timeseriesor controlgroupsshouldbe
used.Timeseriesdata capturetrendsor fluctuations,and controlgroupshelpverify
attributionof causality.For example,the controlgroup chosenis critical for compar-
ing the increasein averageeducationalattainmentor incomeamong a project'sben-
eficiarieswith the increasein a nonprojectarea: thecontrolgroup mustbe identical
to the projectsamplein all respectsotherthan the presenceof the project.Finally,any
interpretationof indicatorsmustconsiderthe relationshipbetweenexogenousfactors
and the indicatorstheymay influence.Thisis one reasonwhy the monitoringof risk
factorsis so important.
Relation
to loan Indicatorsare factsabout projectimplementation results,notactions.Thusstandard
covenants practiceby the Bankand borrowersis to considerperformancetargetsas indicative
and not legallybinding.Theunderstanding is thatthe agreedtargetsare usedprimarily
to gaugeprogressin projectimplementation and in realizingdevelopment objectives.
However,in instances whereattainmentof certainindicatorsor targetsisconsidered
essentialto the attainmentof a project'sobjectives(forexample,in the caseof certain
financialindicatorsof a profit-makingentitysupportedby a project),theseindicators
(targetvalues)shouldbe incorporatedin the legaldocumentsnotonly as performance
benchmarks butalso as a loancovenant(seepage 21).
26
In theendperformance monitoring indicatorsandthefeedbacktheyprovideareonly Lastword
asgoodastheunderlying analysis(economic andfinancialanalysis,economic and
sectorwork,socialandenvironmental assessment) supportingtheprojectdesign,and
thedatato beassessed overtime.Thelogicalframework approachto projectformu-
for projectdesignandevaluation,
lationis onlya structure notthefull extentof project
designor evaluation. Noneof thetoolsdescribed in thishandbook can replace
soundeconomic, financial,social,environmental,andriskandsensitivity analysisor
comprehensive monitoring andevaluation. Together, theanalysis,thelogicalframe-
work,andtheindicators forma system for continuous analysisanda holistic
approachto projectdesign,monitoring, andevaluation.
Notes
1. Effective Implementation: Key to Development Impact, September 1992.
2. An Overview of Monitoring and Evaluation in the World Bank, OED Report 13247, June 30, 1994,
and Monitoring and Evaluation Plans in ProjectsApproved in Fiscal Year 1995, OED draft report, October
6, 1995.
3. The logical framework approach and indicator typology described in this section draw extensively
from material prepared by R. Moses Thompson,Team TechnologiesInc.; Gerald M. Britan, 'Measuring
Program Performancefor Federal Agencies: Issuesand Options for PerformanceIndicators,' prepared for
the U.S. General Accounting Office, 1991; and 'Guidelines for Result-BasedPlanning, Management and
Monitoring," preliminary version, from the Swedish International DevelopmentAgency, January 1995.
4. Several formal techniques for collaborative project planning and managementare variations on the
overall logical framework concept described here: Logical frameworks, ZOPP,and TeamUP,for example.
Appendix 1 of the World Bonk Porticipation Sourcebook (February 1996) describes ZOPP(objectives-
oriented project planning), TeamUP,and other methods and tools that support participatory development,
and provides additional references.
5. The relationship among project objectives may also involve aggregation across spoce, with resultsin
different project locations added to yield regional objectives and achievements. Hierarchically linked and
spatially aggregated objectives often exist in tandem. For instance, a notional child health project whose
overall objective is to reduce child mortality may have a subobjective of reducing the incidence of
preventable disease by educating and inoculating a certain number of individuals nationwide-that is, the
sumof the individuals reached by individual clinics throughout the notion.
6. See also Handbook on EconomicAnalysis of InvestmentOperations (Washington, D.C.:World Bank,
1996), Chapter 10, "Risk and SensitivityAnalysis."
7. Various formal logical framework techniques use tools suchas problem and objective trees, situation
and SWOT (strengths-weaknesses-opportunities-threats) analyses, and project planning matrixes to graphi-
cally representthe problem, beneficiary, and objectives analysis.
8. Even if a borrower is not explicitly aware of or does not follow the logical framework approach in
designing a project, the Bank can follow the approach to appraise the project.
9. This discussion draws heavily on a report of the EastAsia Working Group on Project Performance
Monitoring Indicators prepared for consideration by the EastAsia Regional Management Group. The work-
ing group included staff from the EastAsia Region, the Asia Technical Department, Human ResourcesSer-
vices, OED, and Operations Policy.
10. For additional discussion, see Monitoring and Evaluotion Plansin Staff Appraisol ReportsIssued in
Fiscal Year 1995: A Follow-up to OED's Report 'An Overview of Monitoring and Evaluation in the World
Bank,' OED Report 15222, December29, 1995.
11. ThomasJ. Cook, Jerry VanSant, LeslieStewart, and Jamie Adrian, "Performance Measurement:
LessonsLearned for DevelopmentManagement," World Development23(8): 1303-15 (1995).
12. Briton, p. 20.
27
SECTORAL NOTES ON INDICATORS
Whattopicsdothenotescover?
Agriculture Povertyreduction
Economicadjustment Power
Education Privatesectordevelopment
Environment Technicalassistance
Financialsector Telecommunications
Housing Transport
Industryand mining Urbandevelopment
Oil and gas Water and wastewater
Population,health,and nutrition
28
Howwerethenotes
developed?
Howare indicators
selected
fromthenotes?
Whereare thenotesavailable?
29
Sector Department Task manager Contactpersonand extension
* Secondeditionnoteissued.
Howto learnmore
Besides developing theirsecond-editionnotes,theCentralVicePresidencies are dis-
seminating thefirsteditionnotesand advisingRegionalstaffon theuseof
performance monitoring indicators.TheCentralVicePresidencieswillcontinue to
sponsor workshops on theirindicatornotesand, whenrequested, adviseprojectstaff
on all aspectsof theuseof performance monitoringindicators.
Inaddition,the Bank's
Learning and Leadership Centeris providing
trainingon performance indicatorsas
partof itsregularcourses on projectpreparation,
appraisal,and supervision.
30
EXAMPLES OF INDICATORS
31
Table
1. Summary
ofobjectives
andkeyperformanceindicators,
Honduras
Basic
Education
Project
(StaffAppraisal
Report13791-HO,March
8, 1995)
RISKSANDCRITICAL
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUMPTIONS
(Resources provided (Goodsandservices (Theoutcomeis OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS
OBJECIIVES for projectactivities) producedby theproject) dependenton...) (of projectactivities)
Taskmanager.Anna Sant'Anna.
32
Table
2. Summaryofobjectives
andkeyperformoance
Indicotors,
Indonesia
Rural
Electrification
Prolect
(StaffAppraisal
Report
12920-IND,
February
3, 1995)
RISKSAND CRITICAL
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUMPTIONS
(Resources provided (Goodsand services (Theoutcomeis OUTCOMES ANDIMPACTS
OBJECTIVES for projectactivities) producedby theprolect) dependenton... iof projectoctivities)
Expand coverage and * IBRDloan($398 miliion) Expand electricity None.WellwithinPLN's * Supply electricity
to 7,000
supplyof electricity
to * Government/PLN funds network implementation
and additional ruralvillagescovering
ruralareas ($442.8million) * 28,000 kmcof MV lines financialcapacity 2. 1 millionnewcustomers
* Ministryof Cooperotives* 35,000 kmcof LVlines customers * Meetelectricity consumption
($0.5 million) * 1.3 millionpoles targets
of 35-45 kilowotthours
* 833 MVAdistribution a month, depending on region
Funds will be usedto transformers * Increase penetration of
procure equipment, televisions,radios,andother
works,consultants,and appliances
trainingandtechnical * Increase ruralhousehold
assistance for capacity electrification
from32%to more
building than40%by 1998
Establishincentivesfor * Publish
smallpower * PLNmaybeslowto * Strengthen theenabling
privatesectorandlocal purchase tariffandstondard enterintopowerpurchase environment forprivatesector
cooperatives to providea powerpurchase contractfor contracts andcooperatives to generate,
largershareof rural saleof electricity by private * Delayedimplementationdistribute, andsellwholesale
electricity
distribution
and generators to PLN of thepolicyandregulotoryandretail-level powerfrom
renewable energy * Esiablish bulksupply framework to overseeretail renewable energysources.
generation for rural tarifffor saleof bulkelectricity pricingandservice aspects * Increase megawaits and
powersupply of privatedistributors megawatt hours of non-PLN
generation providedby
renewable energyfrom0 to 75
megawatts and 300 megawatt
hoursa yearby 1998
e Increase thenumber of
cooperatives engagedin
electricity
distribution
who buy
bulkpowerfromPLN
* Reduce powergeneration
requirements fromhigh-cost
dieselplantsto 75 megawatts
and200 megawatt hours
by 1998
Tablecontinues
on thenextpage.
33
Table
2 (continued)
RISKSAND CRITICAL
INPUT OUTPUT ASSUMPTIONS
(Resources provided (Goodsandservices (Theoutcomeis OUTCOME/IMPACT
OBJECTIVES for projectactivitiesl producedby theprojectl dependenton... (of projectactivities)
Advance theefforts
initiatedundertheFirstRural
Electrification
Projectto
placetheruralelectrification
program onanefficient
andsustainable footingby
Taskmanager:ArunSanghvi.
34
Table
3. Summary
ofobjedtives
andkeyperformance
Indicators,
Indonesia:
Second
Agrickutural
Research
Management
Proled
(SAR13933-IND,
April21,1995)
RISKSAND CRITICAL
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUMPTIONS
(Resourcesprovided (Goods andservices (Theoutcomeis OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS
OBJECTIVES Forprojectactivities) producedby theproject) dependenton .) (ofprojectactivities)
Tablecontinues
onthe nextpage.
35
T . 3 (citued)
RISKS
ANDCRMCAL
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUM?P1ONS
(Resources
provided (Goodsandservices (Theoutcomeis OUTCOMES AND MPACTS
OBJECTIVES forproject
octvities) producedby the project) dependen on... (of projectactivities)
* Manageinsitutsandstaff
beher
* Increase gavernment
allocationforagricultural
researchanddevelopment
(to 1%of agricukural
GDP)
Fundresearch inpriority * 25%increase in reseorch * L.intedgovernment * 5%increase in governmrent
areasat national
reseorch outputsfromprojects on courhrpartfundsfor allocation foragricultural research
institutes
tosupportregional pnority
areas(livestck, priorityareasand anddevelopment; 10%increase
resech anddevelopment hsheries horticuiture,
tree disciplines infundsfor priorityareosand
programs craops)
andprioritydisciplines disciplines
fbioiechnolpg, agribusiness, * 25% increase innumber of
morketing, sociobogy) technologies generated by
* Rehobilitatespeciolized nationalresearch institutes
for
loboratoriesinselected national on-farm testinganddemonstration
research insritutes by agncultural institutes
* Trainscientisbondprovide * Rehabilitate specialized
tachnicol supportin priority loboratories in national research
areasanddiscipines institutes
to support priorityareas
anddisciplines
* 10%increase in number of
trainedscientists (posigroduate) in
notionalresearch institutes
vwvrking
on priorityareasanddisciplines
* Generate high-quolity research
in nraional research insfHtutes
and
agriculuralinstitutes
* Secure increased and
sustained fundingforpriority
research areasanddisciplines
Improve accessto * Colloborating
inslituions'* Improve
technologies
and * Iaeased language * 30%increase in number of
eenmalygenerated counterpart
funds newinformation fromjoinl capacityof AARD staff colobortiveprojects and
technobgiesand projects
undertheUniversity * Icreasedcommiment activihes vith intemationaland
strengthen
collaboration GrantProgram of ensemnlgroupsto Asio-Pocific researchoenters
withAsia-Pocific
and * Inroduce nevwechnolo- colaborate andfund localuniversities, andtheprivote
international
centers,
the gies,monagement tools,and joird
octivilies sector
privatesector;
and stondard methods fromjoirt * increase exposure of
universihes projects
vwith and
Asia-Pacific Indonesian scientists
ond
international
centers,NARS, monagers to international
and
universities,
andtheprivte regionalforums and20%increase
sectr in number of scientific
papersin
* Trin staf andjointpopers referredjournals
fromtheScientificEchange * 25% increase in scientists,
Program managers, andagriculturolinstitute
stafftrainedoutsideIndonesia
* Increase exposure of
Indonesian scientists
and
managers to globalresearch
system
* Foster collaboration among
NARSandbetweenNARS
and IARCs
Task
manager:DefyGaposin.
36
Table ofobectives
4. Summary ii keyperfonrmce
hWktos,
Uthuonla
SlaulalEnvlunntProedt
(Stuff
Appraisal
Reort1498l-IT,
Nvovmbw
9, 1995)
RISKSANDCRITICAl
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUMPTIONS
(Resourcesprovided (Goods
andservices [Theoutcome
is OUTCOMES ANDMPACTS
OBJECTIVES for project
activities) produced
by theproject) dependent
on.. I (ofproject
activitiesl
Taskmanager:SariSoderstrom.
37
Table
5. Summary
ofobledives
andkeyperformance
indicators,
PonRural
Roads
Rehabilitation
andMaintenacne
Project
(StaffAppraisal
Report
14939-PE,
November
6, 1995)
RISKS
ANDCRITICAL
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUMPTIONS
(Resources
provided (Goods andservices (The
outcome
is OUTCOMES ANDIMPACTS
OBJECTIVES forproject
activities) produced
bytheproject) dependent
on... (ofproject
octivities(
Reduce
tronsport
costs * IBRD
loan($90million)
* Bring
5,000kmofrural * Favorable
macroeconomic
* 80%
ofcommunities
in
ond increasereliability ' Inter-American roadsup to adequate conditionsand termsof programareaslinkedby a
of vehicularaccessin Development Bankloan
standardsfor traffic trade reliableand affordable
ruralareasto expand ($90 million) * Bring2,500 kmof * Favoroble natural publictransportation system
markets forogricultural * Government funds
connecting roadsup to conditionsin projectarea * 30%lowerfreighttoriffsfor
andnonfarmproducts by: ($70.2 million) goodcondition * Securitysituation
doesnot transport of agricultural output
* Maintain7,500 km preventexecution of works * 30%lowerpossenger
* Integrating
inaccessibleFundswill be usedto of roadsroutinelyaccording * Localconstruction
industry tariffs for transportin rural
zoneswithregional procuretechnical to guidelinesdeveloped developscapacityto areas
economiccenters assistance,equipment, underthe project undertake largevolume * 30%increase in
and works of works commercial traffic(buses,
pickups,and trucks) within
threeyearsof completion of
roadimprovements
* Alleviateruralpovertyin
the 12 poorestdepartments
(X%changein poverty
measure)
Tablecontinues
on the nextpage.
38
Table
5(confloed)
RISKSAND CRlTICAL
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUMPTIONS
(Resources provided (Goodsand services (Theoutcomeis OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS
OBJECTIVES for projectactivities) producedby the projectl dependenton... I (of projectactivities)
Increase
institutional Provide technicalassistance
for: * Government commitment to * Establish ruralroadsunit
copocityat thelocallevel * Planning andmanogement empowering municipalities withinMTCto planand
andincrease capacityfor of ruralroadswithinMTC, * Municipalities'
porticipation monitor rurolroodinvesinment
smallandmedium-size PERT-PCR, andlcol in thetechnical assistance andtransporafion performance
enterprises
to manageand governments program * Revise fundional and
carryoutsustainable * Developing microenterprises* System of intergavernmental jurisdictional
classification
maintenance andupgrading andsmallandmedium-size iransfers andlocalrevenue of roadsandinventory
of roods enterprisesfor roadmaintenance sources in placeasa resuh of all publicroods
* Developing thelocal of thedecentralizationagenda * Streamline localgovernment
constructionindustry. procurement proceduresin
Studieson: accordance withtheaction
* LocalRoadAdministration plandeveloped underthe
Practices LocalRoods Administration
* RuralRoadsFunding Practices study
* Implement mechanism to
securefundsfor rural
maintenance agreedbetween
centraland localgovernments
in accordancewiththe
actionplandevelopedunder
the RuralRoadsFunding study
* Encourage morethan 300
local contradors and
consultants to registerwith
PERT-PCR andparticipotein
projecactivities
* Ensure that100 microenter-
prisesand smallandmedium-
sizeparticipatein routine
maintenance
* Ensure that60 lof 117)
provincialmunicipalities
adoptinstitutionalprograms
designedundertheproject
Taskmanager:
JoseLuisIrigoyen.
39
Table
6. Summryofobjedives
andkeyperformace
Indacators,
ThePhilippires
Womn'sHotho Prolet(StaffAppraisal
andSaf Motherhood 13566-PH,
Report 27,1995)
January
RISKS
ANDCRITICAL
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUMPTIONS
iResourcesprovided iGoodsandservices (The
outcomeis OUTCOMES ANDIMPACTS
OBJECTIVES for project
activities) bytheproject)
produced on...j
dependent (ofproject
activities)
health
Improve status * IBRD
loan($18million) * Increase
proportion
of
women
oflow-income of * ABBloan($54million) women receiving
prenatal
and
reprodudive ageby * KfW cofinancing postnatal care,family
substantially ($14.24million)
increasing planning, and RTI/STD and
and * ECcofinancing
theiruseof effective ($13 cervical cancermanagement
sustainablehealthcare million) fromX%to Y%
services.
Specific * AIDAB cofinancing * Lowerfrom60%to X%
development objectives: ($10.55 million) theshare of lowerincome
* LGUcounterpart funds womennotattendedby a
($26.66 million) trainedphysician
* Increase fromX%to Y%the
shareof pregnant and
lactating womencompleting
micronutrient supplementation
regimes
* 25%dropin shareof
wvomen contracting puerperal
infections(among thetotal
number of diagnosed
pregnancies)
* 10%dropinshareof low
birthweight newborns
* Reduce matemal mortality
ratefrom208 per 100,000
livebirthstoX per 100,000
by 2005
* Lower fertilityratefrom
4.3%to X%by 2005
qualityrange,Micronutrients,
* Improving food * IncreasefromX%to Y%the * LGUshavethemanagerial* Ensure that90%of
andaccessto women's fortifioation, immunizations,shareof womenwithaccessto andtechnical capocityto womenreferred with
health
services deliverykits,drugsand motemal andprenatal implement theproject obstetric
complicationsore
supplies, healthfacilities care,familyplanning, RTI/STD monaged correctly
renovation, technical andcervicolcanceroore,and * Adequate cashflowto * 25%increase inwomen
assistance,andmedical counseling support projectacfivities andappropriately
referred
andlaboratory * EnsurethatX%of the * MostLGUs decideto managed for RTls
in theten
equipment to: population resides withinY km porticipateintheproject provinces
* Strengthen maternal of a healthfacility andeffective * 20%increase
* Sufficient inwomen
andprenatal core * EnsurethatX%of women coordination by thevarious detectedand managed for
and services
facilities whosoughtcarethrough a donorsisdeveloped and cervicalcancerinthe 15
* Strengthen family heolthfacilityweresatisfied maintained provinces
plOanning services withtheservices
* Implement RTI/STD
prevention management
program
* Design andimplement
cervicalcancerscreening
program
on thenextpage.
Tablecontinues
40
Thbl6 (continu.d)
RISKSAND CRITICAL
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUMPTIONS
(Resources provided (Goodsand services (Theoutcomeis OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS
OBJECTIVES for projectactivities) producedby the project) dependenton...) (of projectactivities)
* Strengthening
LGU Technicalassistance, * Increase to X%onthe-job * Skillsleamedin training * Ensurethatlessfhan25%of
capocityto manage health workshops andtraining, competency levelsof staff programs by midwives healthfocilities
reportstock-outs
services
andDOHcapacitybroadcasttime,office trainedinclinical,diagnostic, andbarangay health of essential
dwugs
to providetechnical,
finon- andotherequipment, counseling, interpersonal, workers areused * Reducecostof logistics
to
cial,andlogistical
support travel,salaries honoraria,communication,historr effectively
ascommunity lessthan8%of valueof
incremental operating taking,and referral outreochtools commodities
costs,supplies,computerpractices * Midwivesandbarangay
hardware andsoftware, * Increase to X%the healthworkers arenot
warehouse construction timeliness
andaccuracy tooaverburdened with
andrenovation, vehicles,of procurement
anddistributionadditionalpatients
to
logistics,
andmaterial of drugs,reagents, andother deliverqualityservices
productionpublication, medicalsupplies * Localcontractorsand
anddistribution contracts consultingfirmshavethe
to: technicalexpertise
to conduct
* Designandimplement studies
in-service
training
program
forpublichealthcare
workers
* Establish
andoperate
projectmonagement office
* Strengthennotionol
publichealthandlogistics
system
* Increasing
local * Designedandimple- * FormXcommunity * Ensure
thatat least80%of
andNGO involvement in mentedhousehold-evelpartnerships toempower thosesurveyedareawareof
women'shealthprograms communityoutreach womenandtheircommunities onepreventiveintervention
for
programs to improvetheirhealth RTls,twosymptoms of RTIs,
and
* Designedandimple- * Provincelevel LGUsconduct onecomplication dueto RTI.
mentedintegratedinfor- Xtrainingprograms * Ensurethatat least90%of
mation,education,and * Fund X proposals womensurveyed knowabout
communicationstrategy submiffed by NGO antenatal
Tr injectionsandiron
* Designedandimple- partnerships at community folatesupplements
mentedcommunity level
partnerships
program
* Improving
knowledge * Consultants,
studies, * Complete X studies
bosefor healthpolicy monitoring,
and on thecosteffectivenessof
formulation evaluation servicedeliveryoptions
* Improve healthpolicy
framework leadingto increased
cost-effectiveness
of various
optionsto deliverhealth
servicesto women
* Establish protocolsfor
betterdetection anddiagnosis
of RTIs
andeorlycervicalcancer
Taskmanagers:
StanleyScheyer,
Maria Dalupon,andRamaLakshminarayanan.
41
Tab7. Sommnry
ofobletWvs
_I keyperfomance
idiators,
Venezuela
Aglcultural
Extension
Proec(Staff
Appraisal
Report
13591-VE,
March
7,1995)
RISKSAND CRITICAL
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUMPTIONS
(Resources provided (Goodsand services (Theoutcomeis OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS
OBJECTIVES for projectactivities) producedby theproject) dependenton...) (of projectactivitiesl
Helppoorfarmers raise * IBRD loon1$39million)* Establish extensionoffices * Availabilityof counterpart * Farmers learnaboutand
theirproductivity
and * Government funds ineachstateandmunicipality funding adoptnewtechnologies
incomes ($21 million) (18 statesand 180 * Sufficient
administrative (measure: Xbeneficiaries adopt
* Stategovernment funds municipalities) coordination
in at leastonetechnology
Helpsmallfamiers ($11 milionl * Provide50 trainingprogramsestablishing
a new recommended by the
improvetheenvironmental* Municipalgovernmentforextensionists eachyear nationwideprogram extension servicel
sustainability
of their funds($6 millionl * Providefourextensionvisits * Extensionists learnnew
agricultural
activities * Farmers funds to eachformeachyear, technologies fromuniversities
($2million) covering90,000 farmers andspecialists (measure:X
* Fundat leasttwmannualvisits trainingevents andfielddays
Funds will beused bysubjectmotter specialists eachyear,withYextensionists
to trainagricultural to everymunicipality's
farms participating)
extensionists,establish andextension offices * Appliedresearch conducted
newextension offices, * Sponsor onefielddayeach to address farmer's expressed
andprovideextension yearin everystate needs(measure: Xfieldtrials
visitsto farmers * Sponsor twofieldtrialseach conducted by specialists
yeorin everymunicipality together withextensionistsl
* Establish
Farmers associations * Higherincomes for90,000
ineverymunicipality beneficiaries(measures: X°h
0 of
* Coordinate montlymeetings participatingfarmers haveyield
of extensionists
andsubject increases overprevious
matterspecialists
ineachstae period,average yieldincrease
Y/ of participating farmers
increase theirnetincomeover
previous period)
* Economic growthin rural
communities (measure: average
netincomechangeover
peviousperiodof participating
famers)
* Lessenvironmental domage
(soildegradation, erosion,
runoff)
causedby poorfarmers
(measure: Xpotson
participatingfarms with
environmental improvement
overprevious period
Taskmanager:DavidNielson.
42
Table
S. Summary
ofobledives
andkeyperfonmance
indiktors,
Chad:
Strudural
Adjustment
Credit
(President's
ReportP-6785-CD)
RISKSANDCRITICAL
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUMPTIONS
(Resources
provided IGoods andservices iTheoutcome
is OUTCOMES ANDIMPACTS
OBJECTIVES forproject
activities)produced
bytheproject) dependent
on...) (ofproject
activities)
Resbore
publik
sector
capacity
andimprove
pubik
secor
finances
Civilservice
reform * $30million * Completeacivilservice * Norenewalinpolitical
unrest* Reducecivilservice
vmge
* Capocity-buildingcensus * Sufficient
institutionol
capocitybillfrom
5.8%ofGDP in
project
($9.5million) * Abolish
automoaicwage * Newadministration follows 1995to5.1%in 1998
increases through
onprogram
* Prepare
anorganizational
chort
forcivilservice
Public
finance * Introduce
single
taxpayer * Increase
revenue
from9%
rehabiliiation code ofGDP in 1995to 11.5%
* Reformspecial
enterprise in1998
regimesinlinewithregional
economic agreements
* Renegotiatecustoms
treatment
forprivate
firms
and
public
enterprises
e Centralize
collection
of all
international
trade
taxes
e Establish
exoneration
quotas
forimports
bydiplomats
Increase
development
andpoverty
alleviation
impact
ofpublic
spending
Demobilization * Reduce
armysize,
with * Cutarmy
from47,000
to
assistance
forresettlement 21,000
soldiers
Public
expenditure * Abolish
off-budget
management operations
* Eliminate
arrears
to
domestic
suppliers
Development
ofpublic * Reach
agreement
with In1996budget:
expenditure
program IDAon1996budget
and * Limit
wages
andsalaries
for 1996andcapital 1996-98publicinvestment to5.7%of GDP
expenditure
program program * Limit
goodsandservices
for 1996-98 to 2.6%of GDP
* Lmit
overall
current
expenditures
tolessthan
13.5%ofGDP
* Limit
capitol
expenditure
toless
than14% ofGDP
Table
continues
onthenext
page.
43
Taleb
8 (cont0Ined)
RISKSAND CRITICAL
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUMPTIONS
[Resourcesprovided IGoodsand services (Theoutcomeis OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS
OBJECTIVES for projectactivities) producedby theproject) dependenton...) (of projectactivitiesj
Strengthened
judicial * Simplifyprocedures * Increase
pivateinvestment
andregulatory
environment fr licensing businesses from1.4%of GDPin 1995to
* AmendArticles116 and 4.5%in 1998 (excluding
142of laborcode impactof Dobaoil)
- Simplifyinvestment
code
* Amendthebusiness code,
includingcompony and
bankruptcy laws
* Ratify
OHADA
Financial
system * Sellpublicsharesof BTCD
restructuring andBDT
* SellMeridien's
shareinBMBT
* Reducepublicsector
membership on theboard
of CNPS
* Preporeactionplanto settle
government'sdebtto CNPS
andCNRT
Stateenterprise
divesiture * LiquidateSONACOT, BICIT
CoisseSucre,andFIP
* Prepore HotelduChari,BIEP,
INT,andONHPVforprivatization
* OfferSONAPA,SOTEC,
BDT,BTCD, andBMBTfor
privotization
* Initiate
divesiture
strategy
for
STEE ONPT,TIT,COTONCHAD,
andSONASUT
Cottonsectorreform * Launch
COTONCHAD * Increaseproducerpricefor
human resourcedevelopment firstgrade
cottonfromCFAF
strategy 120 perkilogramto CFAF140
* Improveproducerpricing perkilogram
* Adopttwopartcotton * 10%annualincrease in
producerpricingmechanism cottonexports
between1995
and 1998
Taskmanagers:
AmadouCisseandEmmanuel
Akpa.
44
Table
9. Summary
ofobledives
andkeyperformace
Indiators,
Morocco:
Finandal
MarketsDevelopment
Loam(President's
Report
P-6633-MOR)
RISKSANDCRITICAL
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUMPTIONS
(Resourcesprovided (Goodsandservices (Theoutcomeis OUTCOMES AND LMPACTS
OBJECTIVES for projedactivities) producedby theproject) dependenton...) lof projectactivities)
Treasury
financing
EnobleTreasury to finance * IBRD loon($250 * Eliminate
mandatory
Treasury * Nonagricultural
GDPgrows* Increase
ratioof Treasury
itselfat market
terms million) bondto sightdeposits
ratio from2. in 1995 to 3.2% bondauctions to totalTreasury
in 1996, to 3.6%in 1997 domes6c debtfrom25%in
1995 to 30%in 1996, to
35%in 1997
Increaseliquidityof * Technical
assistance* Adoptlw on negotiable * Ratio
of debtoutstanding
to
publicsecurities
and * Debtmanagement--securities GDPfallsfrom221%in 1995
strengthensecondary $50,000 (France; * Issue CentralBankcirculars to 200% in 1996, to 182%
marketsfor Treasury bonds on Treasury
bondtenders in 1997
Eliminate
remaining * Accounting- * Eliminate
fiscalincentives * Current
account
deficit/GDP
taxbias $75,000 (Froncel onTreasury
bonds ratiofallsfrom3.5%in 1995 to
2.9%in 1996,to 2.8%in 1997
Strengthen
publicdebt * Complete
trainingprogram * Budget deficit/GDPratiofalls
managementsystem from3.5%in 1995 to 3.0%in
1996, to 2.5%in 1997
* FixedcapitalFormation/GDP
ratioincreasesfrom21.2%
in 1995t 22.0 in 1996,
to 22.8 in 1997
* No deteriorationinbanks'
Finoncialcondition
Indirect
monetory
conto
Implement
indirect * CentralBanksetsboserates * Limitratioof Central
Bank
monetary
controlpolicy * Issue CentralBankcircularestob- advancerateto interbonk
lishingterms
andconditions of its ratemaximum spreadto 2%
interventions
inmonetary market through1997
* Calculate
reserverequirement
ona dailybasis
Liberalize
interest
rates * Eliminate
ceilingon lendingrates
Capitalmarket
developrmnt
Diversify
financing * Technicalassistance * Issue decrees on stack * Increase
corporate bond
sourcesforprivatefirms, for a centraldepositoryexchange issuesfrom0 in 1995to
strengthenaccounting anddeliveryand * Implement accounting DH 2 billionin 1996, to
fromework, anddeepen poyments system- framework DH4 billionin 1997
capitalmarkets $1 million(Francel * Present draftlow oncorporations * Incrrease
ratioof stock
to Houseof Representatives marketcapitalization
to GDP
* Approve rulesgoverning from17%in 1995to 19%
nationalcouncilforaccounting in 1996,to 23%in 1997
* Presentdrahlaw on
preporation, publication,
and
cerfification
of consolidoted
financialaccounts
* Eliminote government
guarantees ondomestic bond
issuesby publicenterprises
* Develop occounting rules
forinsurance companies
Tablecontinues
on thenextpoge.
45
Te 9(Cethied)
RISKSAND CRmCAL
INPUTS OUTPUTS ASSUMPTIONS
(Resources provided (Goodsand services (Theoutcomeis OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS
OBJECTIVES for projectactivities) producedby the project) dependenton...) (of projectactivities)
Increase
institutional * Technical
assistance
for * Competestudyof and Sameas above(increase
savings contractual
savings- achonplanon potential role corporate
bondissues,stock
$600,000 (Francel of institutional
investors market
capitalization)
Encourage investors
to * Technical
assistance * Definetradingfees
trodesecurities
onrfloor onstockexchange
andincrease transparencyoperations,
upgrading,
of stockexchange andtroding(CIDA)
operations
Strengthen
securities * Implement
actionplanto
commission
andstock strengthen
securifies
commission
exchange andstockexchange
Bknmng
syslen
Accelerate
prvatization * Sellstate's
sharesinBCP,
program BNDE,andCIH
Establish
foreign * Announce
creationof forex
exchangemarket market
* Issue circularestablishing
forexmarket andmodalities of
operafions
* Issue accounting standards
forforeigncurrency operations
by banks
* Eliminateinitialminimum
IDH 100,000)required to
opennonresident Moroccan
accounts in foreigncurrencies
* Increase foreigncurrency
limitsof exporters of goodsand
srvicesfrom5%and 10%
to 20%
Strengthen
bonk * Develop
offsiteandon-site
supervision supervision
* Submit
regularreports
preporedby independent
external
auditorsoertified
by
theCentralBank
Taskmanager:Emmonuel
Forestier.
46
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