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马来西亚
RHB Research
技术分析 Institute Sdn Bhd
A member of the
RHB Banking Group
Company No: 233327 -M
每日交投策略
MARKET DATELINE
2010 年 9 月 8 日
市场技术解读
整盘走势料将在本周接下来这几天延续下去…
图 1∶
∶富时大马综合指数(
富时大马综合指数(FBM KLCI)(
)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 2∶
∶富时大马综合指数(
富时大马综合指数(单日线图)
单日线图)
本地股市的交投指引∶
♦ 由于开斋节佳节即将到来,本地股市在缺乏强大购兴下于周二谨慎地交易,并几乎以平盘挂收。
♦ 在亚洲,在投资者消化有关美国基建计划的最新经济振兴措施后,区域股市便在收盘时起落参半。不过,美国期货市场和欧
洲股市却在早市陷入强大抛售压力下。印度 Sensex 指数以 0.46% 的涨势遥遥领先其它区域股市,但日经 225 指数却在经
过近日凌厉涨势后,便下调 0.81%。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 在谨慎的交投下,富时综指昨日处于窄幅交投波幅内。
♦ 虽然如此,它以一根小阳烛挂收,显示它今日可能会伺机反弹。
♦ 事实上,我们也相信,当前整盘走势将会在本周接下来这几天持续下去。
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露(
请仔细阅读位于本报告尾页的重要披露( IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES)
Page 1 of 6
2010 年 9 月 8 日
每日交投策略∶
每日交投策略∶
♦ 开斋节长假在即,富时综指在整盘走势延续下一连三日回调。
♦ 虽然它所取得的微小阳烛建议市场今日将伺机展开一波技术复苏走势,但基于动力解读转弱,而且交投量也不断下滑,我们
质疑其上涨潜能。
♦ 我们认为,长假在即,投资者料将会采取观望态度,并保持谨慎态度。
♦ 否则,我们相信富时综指将会持续巩固,以调和近日的超买动力,直到下周为止。
表 1 ∶每日统计 表 2∶
∶主要海外指数及原产品
9月 9月 9月 9月 9月 变动 变动
收盘
股市摘要 1日 2日 3日 6日 7日 本地主要指数 (点) (%))
上升股 富时大马综合指数 1,434.27 -0.41 0.0
307 511 394 316 336
下跌股 富时大马 100 指数 9,365.02 -5.18 -0.1
476 256 325 370 354
平盘 富时大马创业板 3,779.81 25.28 0.7
270 258 291 277 286
无交易 各大海外指数
312 341 352 397 385
道琼斯工商指数 10,340.69 -107.24 -1.0
市场资本 纳斯达克指数 2,208.89 -24.86 -1.1
总成交量 标准与普尔 500 1,091.84 -12.67 -1.1
(百万股) 949 1,075 922 744 642
伦敦金融时报指数 5,407.82 -31.37 -0.6
总成交值 恒生指数 21,401.79 46.02 0.2
(百万令吉) 2,077 1,873 1,718 1,422 1,173 雅加达综合指数 3,230.89 13.74 0.4
东京日经 225 指数 9,226.00 -75.32 -0.8
外汇 首尔综合指数 1,787.74 -4.68 -0.3
令吉兑美元 3.1290 3.1260 3.1200 3.1150 3.1230 上海综合指数 2,698.36 2.11 0.1
曼谷综合指数 923.89 -7.63 -0.8
资料来源∶RHBInvest &彭博社( Bloomberg) 新加坡海峡时报指数 3,036.09 1.51 0.0
台湾加权指数 7,884.40 -6.55 -0.1
印度 Sensex 指数 18,645.06 85.01 0.5
主要原产品
纽约商品交易所
(NYMEX)原油期货
(每桶/美元) 74.09 -0.51 -0.7
MDEX 原棕油 – 第 3
个月 (每公吨/令吉) 2,628.00 8.00 0.3
美国利率 目前 最新
10 年 8 月
隔夜联邦基金利率 0-0.25% 无变动
10 日
下个联邦公开市场操作
2010 年 9 月 21 日
委员会(FOMC)会议
Page 2 of 6
2010 年 9 月 8 日
图 3∶
∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(
)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 4∶
∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)(
)(单日线图
)(单日线图)
单日线图)
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI)周二在临尾抛压下收黑,基于越来越多的交易员在开斋节长假开始前远离期货市场。
♦ 加上欧洲股市也因美国期货市场下挫下于早盘猛挫,导致交易员作出负面反应,并在收市前推低本地期货指数。
♦ 随着期指在形成一根“十字线”(doji)后于昨日划出一根小阴烛,这显示当前整盘走势将会在今日进一步延续。
每日交投策略∶
每日交投策略∶
♦ 随着 FKLI 昨日陷入新抛压,并以一根小阴烛报收,这意味着来日将会有更多疲弱走势。
表 3∶∶吉隆坡综合期货指数(
吉隆坡综合期货指数(FKLI))收盘
月份)
月份
FKLI (月份 变动
合约 开盘 最高 最低 收盘 (点) 结算 成交量 未平仓宗数
10 年 9 月 1435.00 1438.50 1433.00 1433.50 -4.00 1433.50 3177 18973
10 年 10 月 1434.50 1438.00 1432.50 1433.50 -3.50 1433.00 163 215
10 年 12 月 1432.50 1436.50 1432.00 1432.00 -3.50 1432.50 50 392
11 年 3 月 1430.00 1434.50 1430.00 1430.00 -3.00 1430.50 24 111
Page 3 of 6
2010 年 9 月 8 日
图 5∶
∶美国道琼斯工商指数(
美国道琼斯工商指数(DJIA)
)(日线图
日线图)
日线图 图 6∶
∶美国纳斯达克指数(
美国纳斯达克指数( Nasdaq)
)(日线图
日线图)
日线图
美国股市的交投指引∶
美国股市的交投指引∶
♦ 华尔街股市周二恢复交易,并结束近日的升势,基于投资者再度担心欧洲银行领域的状况而趁机进行套利。
♦ 另外,德国政府披露,工厂订单在 7 月出人意表地下跌,触发了欧洲最大经济体系正在失去动力的忧虑。
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 技术而言,从它取得一根阴烛看来,这显示近日多头动力或将会放缓。
♦ 不过,一如道指一样,如果这些扶持水平能够制止跌势,那么其技术展望还是会维持看俏。目前,强大阻力线仍是 2,330
点。
Page 4 of 6
2010 年 9 月 8 日
每日技术焦点∶
每日技术焦点∶
图 7∶
∶ 顶级手套(
级手套( TopGlov)(日线图
)(日线图)
日线图) 图 8∶
∶ 顶级手套(
顶级手套(单日线图)
单日线图)
可能会脱离长期上升趋势…
可能会脱离长期上升趋势
技术解读∶
技术解读∶
♦ 10 日移动平均线(
日移动平均线(10-day SMA): RM6.081
♦ 40 日移动平均线(
日移动平均线(40-day SMA): RM6.434
Page 5 of 6
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report has been prepared by RHB Research Institute Sdn Bhd (RHBRI) and is for private circulation only to clients of RHBRI and RHB Investment Bank Berhad
(previously known as RHB Sakura Merchant Bankers Berhad). It is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. The
opinions and information contained herein are based on generally available data believed to be reliable and are subject to change without notice, and may differ or
be contrary to opinions expressed by other business units within the RHB Group as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. This report is not to be
construed as an offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell the securities covered herein. RHBRI does not warrant the accuracy of anything stated herein in any
manner whatsoever and no reliance upon such statement by anyone shall give rise to any claim whatsoever against RHBRI. RHBRI and/or its associated persons
may from time to time have an interest in the securities mentioned by this report.
This report does not provide individually tailored investment advice. It has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives
of persons who receive it. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. RHBRI recommends that investors independently evaluate
particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. The appropriateness of a particular investment or
strategy will depend on an investor’s individual circumstances and objectives. Neither RHBRI, RHB Group nor any of its affiliates, employees or agents accepts
any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.
RHBRI and the Connected Persons (the “RHB Group”) are engaged in securities trading, securities brokerage, banking and financing activities as well as providing
investment banking and financial advisory services. In the ordinary course of its trading, brokerage, banking and financing activities, any member of the RHB
Group may at any time hold positions, and may trade or otherwise effect transactions, for its own account or the accounts of customers, in debt or equity
securities or loans of any company that may be involved in this transaction.
“Connected Persons” means any holding company of RHBRI, the subsidiaries and subsidiary undertaking of such a holding company and the respective directors,
officers, employees and agents of each of them. Investors should assume that the “Connected Persons” are seeking or will seek investment banking or other
services from the companies in which the securities have been discussed/covered by RHBRI in this report or in RHBRI’s previous reports.
This report has been prepared by the research personnel of RHBRI. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect
information known to, professionals in other business areas of the “Connected Persons,” including investment banking personnel.
The research analysts, economists or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of this research report have received compensation based
upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors and firm revenues.
Technical Recommendation:
Trading Buy = Short-term positive opportunity spotted. It is an aggressive trading recommendation with a book to sellers’ price for short-term technical upside.
Bargain Buy = Short-term positive but technical signals have yet to trigger a rally. Traders can park and queue for their desired entry level within a small range.
Buy on Weakness = Short- to Medium-term positiveness anticipated, but technical readings are still negative. Traders can pick-up the stock for future rally.
Sell on Strength = Short-term momentum still positive, Traders are advice to lock in profit base on current strength.
Take Profit = Short-term target achieved. Traders are advice to exit before the technical readings turn bearish.
Avoid = Risky situation in the short-term and high volatility expected on the share price. Traders’ best strategy is staying away until it stabilises.
Technical recommendations are generally short-term in nature and may differ from RHBRI’s equity fundamental view and recommendation on the same company.
RHBRI is a participant of the CMDF-Bursa Research Scheme and will receive compensation for the participation. Additional information on recommended
securities, subject to the duties of confidentiality, will be made available upon request.
This report may not be reproduced or redistributed, in whole or in part, without the written permission of RHBRI and RHBRI accepts no liability whatsoever for the
actions of third parties in this respect.
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