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Our analysis of oil price movements does not necessarily represent the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Federal Reserve System,
or the Federal Open Market Committee.
New York Fed / Research & Statistics Group ©2018 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Oil Price Dynamics Report / February 5, 2018 1
Cumulative Weekly Decomposition, Oct 06-Feb 02, 2018 Recent Decomposition Data
. change
Percentage ∎ The chart at left depicts the cumulative oil price decomposition
40
Brent price from October 6, 2017.
Oct 6, 2017
30
$55.62 ∎ The table below presents the most recent cumulative values.
Brent crude
price
20
Cumulative Percentage Changes since October 6, 2017
Demand
10 Residual Demand Supply Rest Brent
Supply
Jan 19, 2018 12.7 0.8 7.5 21.0
0
Jan 26, 2018 16.1 -0.3 8.0 23.7
Feb 02, 2018 10.8 0.7 9.4 20.9
-10
Oct 6 Nov 6 Dec 6 Jan 6
Sources: Authors’ calculations; Haver Analytics; Thomson Reuters; Bloomberg L.P.
Notes: Residual re ects price movements unexplained by supply and demand factors.
Supply, demand, and residual sum to Brent crude price.
-50 Supply
-75
New York Fed / Research & Statistics Group ©2018 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Oil Price Dynamics Report / February 5, 2018 2
Oil Price Decomposition Q&A
.
New York Fed / Research & Statistics Group ©2018 Federal Reserve Bank of New York Oil Price Dynamics Report / February 5, 2018 3