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September 07, 2010

To: Interested Parties


Fr: John Anzalone / Zac McCrary
Re: Summary of Kentucky Statewide General Election Polling Results

The race to become Kentucky’s next United State Senator is a toss-up. However, Rand Paul’s
vote is soft and undecided / tentative Paul voters show the propensity to move to Conway after
learning more about Paul. The Republican’s favorable ratings are moving in the wrong direction
and his extreme statements and positions demonstrably bother voters. Given sufficient resources
to hold Paul accountable for his views through paid communications, Jack Conway is poised to
replace Jim Bunning in the U.S. Senate.

The U.S. Senate head-to-head is extremely competitive. Jack Conway is well within the
margin of error, and shows the ability to take a lead once voters learn more about Rand
Paul’s record.

• Rand Paul’s narrow 3-point advantage (45% Conway / 48% Paul) is well within the
margin of error, demonstrating this race will be decided during the final two months of
the campaign. The 7% of voters who are undecided are disproportionately female, age
65+, lower income, and registered Democrats – all characteristics that make them
ultimately statistically likely to break for Conway.

• Much of Paul’s existing vote is soft. Over a quarter of voters who currently support Paul
(29%) say there is a “fair chance” they’ll support a different candidate in November.
And almost half of Paul voters say there is at least a “small chance” (49%), they’ll
change their minds before pulling the lever for Paul.

• Accordingly, the race shows the ability to move toward Conway in the final weeks. Once
voters learn of Paul’s extreme views, Conway takes a majority of the vote and a double-
digit lead (53% Conway / 40% Paul).

Voter perceptions of Paul are moving in the wrong direction, and voters are fundamentally
bothered by his extreme statements and views.

• A greater than 2:1 margin of voters say their impression of Paul has become “less
favorable” in the last few weeks.

• And a similar 2:1 margin agree that “Rand Paul says things that bother and concern me”
(59% Agree / 30% Disagree).

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=800 live telephone interviews with likely 2010 Kentucky General Election voters. Interviews
were conducted between August 27-September 2, 2010. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned
geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±3.46% with a 95% confidence level.