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S TA R T P L A N N I N G Y O U R N E X T T R I P

Global - Deep Value - Special Situations

T R A N I , I TA LY W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M J U LY 2 0 1 7
DISCLAIMER
This introduction has been distributed for informational purposes only.  Neither the information nor any
opinions expressed constitute a recommendation to buy or sell the securities mentioned, or to invest in any
investment product or strategy related to such securities.  It is not intended to provide personal investment
advice, and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular
needs of any person or entity that may receive this letter.  Persons reading this introduction should seek
professional financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities discussed in this
introduction.  The author’s opinions are subject to change without notice.  Forecasts, estimates, and
certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research, and the information used in such
process was obtained from publicly available sources.  Information contained herein has been obtained
from sources believed to be reliable, but such reliability is not guaranteed.  Investment accounts managed
by GreenWood Investors LLC and its affiliates have positions in the securities discussed in this
introduction.  GreenWood Investors LLC may re-evaluate its holdings in such positions and sell or cover
certain positions without notice.  No part of this introduction may be reproduced in any form, or referred to
in any other publication, without express written permission of GreenWood Investors LLC.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
WHO WE ARE

We're a bottoms-up, mostly long, concentrated global investment


manager focused on areas of extreme pessimism, structural
inefficiencies and low competition.

Our framework maximizes the risk-adjusted return profile of our portfolio


while optimizing the qualitative success factors on a continuum to
ensure a wide variety of actionable opportunities. 

Which results in a concentrated portfolio of great managers guiding


under-appreciated companies through transformational moments in their
history.

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
W H AT W E D O

Our framework directs our intensive investigative efforts on a wide array


of opportunities, which get published and closely disseminated in order
to solicit feedback and continuously improve the analysis.

Our collaborative network of partners, comprised of sophisticated


investors, entrepreneurs and business owners, help us both find and
diligence this steady stream of global opportunities.

We are particularly attracted to business builders, and frequently


engage our investments to make decisions for long-term stakeholder
success, often at the expense of shorter-term ephemeral stock gains.

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
SPECIAL THANKS

Travis Devitt, Aceable


network of partners Steve Gorelik, Firebird
Walt Roloson, Wikibuy

“WE MEET NO ORDINARY PEOPLE IN OUR LIVES.”


C.S. LEWIS

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
CURRENT FORCE-RANK LIST

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
TRIP: $36.19
Market Cap: $5.1B (24.3x Adj EPS)
EV: $4.6B (13.5x EBITDA)
Daily Liquidity: $92M
Short Interest: 16.6% Float

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
YOUR NEXT TRIP

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
GIGANTIC INDUSTRY

1.0 B ANNUAL INT’L


STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

T R AV E L E R S

255 M PEOPLE EMPLOYED


(1 IN 12)

Source: PhocusWright

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
GIGANTIC INDUSTRY

$1.3T
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

Losing Share
Gaining Share
$567,
44%
GLOBAL
Online $733,

1.7% GDP
+10.5% 56%
Offline
DIRECT
+1.6% BOOKINGS

Source: PhocusWright

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT OFFLINE EXPERIENCE

Zero Price Transparency


Zero Accountability
W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
ALL GROWTH ONLINE

$350
US Travel Bookings CAGR +3.1%
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

$300

$250
US Online Bookings CAGR +7.0%
$200

$150

$100 US Offline Bookings CAGR +0.7%


$50

$0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Data Source: PhocusWright

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
ALL GROWTH ON MOBILE

$350
US Travel Bookings CAGR +3.1%
Mobile
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

$300

$250
US Desktop Bookings CAGR +4.0%
$200

$150

$100 US Offline Bookings CAGR +0.7%

$50

$0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Data Source: PhocusWright

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
H I G H E S T N P S B Y FA R

46
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

36
29
25
20
11
-1
-7
-10
Source: Customer Guru

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
MASSIVE USER BASE

U N I Q U E M O N T H LY U S E R S ( M I L L I O N S )
450
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
3/12
6/12
9/12

3/13
6/13
9/13

3/14
6/14
9/14

3/15
6/15
9/15

3/16
6/16
9/16

3/17
12/11

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15

12/16
GreenWood estimates using TRIP Data

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
ENGAGED ECOSYSTEM

MILLIONS OF REVIEWS
500
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
12/08

10/09

11/11

12/13

10/14

11/16
5/09

3/10
8/10
1/11
6/11

4/12
9/12
2/13
7/13

5/14

3/15
8/15
1/16
6/16
GreenWood estimates using TRIP Data

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
E N G A G E M E N T A C C E L E R AT I N G

R E V I E W S P E R 1 K A C T I V E U S E R S P E R D AY
1.4
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

1.19
1.2

1.0 0.94

0.8 0.71
0.64
0.58 0.59
0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

GreenWood estimates using TRIP Data

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
INFLUENCING >½ DECISIONS

How Travelers Decide on Accomodation


60% 55%
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

50% 45%
39% 39%
40%

30% 26%

20%

10%

0%
TripAdvisor OTAs Social Posts Official Hotel Word of Mouth
Ratings

2016 Survey n=36k

CAPTURING 23 BPS OF HOTEL REVENUE


Data Sources: TripAdvisor, TripBarometer

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
T H E M O S T I M P O R TA N T F A C T O R

Factors in Hotel Selection


STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

Guest Ratings/Experience Factors 51%

Location 48%

Price 42%

Loyalty Program Points 18%

Promotions 16%

Amenities 8%

Convention 6%

Green Program 1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Data Source: Anderson, C. (2012). e impact of social media on lodging performance [Electronic article]. Cornell Hospitality Report, 12(15), 6-11.

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT PRICING POWER

+11.2% IN PRICING POWER


( W I T H S A M E S H A R E & O C C U PA N C Y )

Data Source: Anderson, C. (2012). e impact of social media on lodging performance [Electronic article]. Cornell Hospitality Report, 12(15), 6-11.

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
M O N E T I Z AT I O N G A P
US EXAMPLE - Q1 2017

Traffic:
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

~20% ~15.5m users


254.3 million
Converts to
Users: hotel click-
75.9 million based revenue
~$7.70
RPU

$119m
US-Hotel
Transaction
Revenue

GreenWood estimates using data from TRIP, Slice Intelligence, SimilarWeb

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
US EXAMPLE - Q1 2017

HOW WELL DID TRIP MONETIZE?


STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

$119m

GreenWood estimates using data from TRIP, Slice Intelligence, SimilarWeb

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
US EXAMPLE - Q1 2017

HOTEL REVENUE INFLUENCED BY TRIP:


STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

$15 BILLION
(ENTIRE SLIDE)

0.78%
Monetization

GreenWood estimates using data from TRIP, Slice Intelligence, SimilarWeb


US EXAMPLE - Q1 2017

“ W H AT W O U L D Y O U S AY I T I S …
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

YOU DO HERE?”

$119m

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT SOME SEE A…

Problem

GreenWood estimates using data from TRIP, Slice Intelligence, SimilarWeb


STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT WE SEE AN…

OPPORTUNITY
(19X)

GreenWood estimates using data from TRIP, Slice Intelligence, SimilarWeb


STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

OPPORTUNITY
STILL GROWING (19X)
+14%
DOUBLE-DIGITS!

GreenWood estimates using data from TRIP, Slice Intelligence, SimilarWeb


THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

U N I Q U E M O N T H LY U S E R S ( M I L L I O N S )
450
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

400

350

300

250

200
NON-HOTEL
150
CAGR +38%
100
HOTEL
50
CAGR +20%
0
12/11

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15

12/16
3/12

6/12

9/12

3/13

6/13

9/13

3/14

6/14

9/14

3/15

6/15

9/15

3/16

6/16

9/16

3/17
W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM

NON-HOTEL SEGMENT
450
TRIP REVENUE: $290M
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

400
M O N E T I Z AT I O N : 2 . 5 B P S
350

300

250

200
NON-HOTEL
150
CAGR +38%
100

50

$2T $250B $100B


0
12/11

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15

12/16
3/12

6/12

9/12

3/13

6/13

9/13

3/14

6/14

9/14

3/15

6/15

9/15

3/16

6/16

9/16

3/17
Data Source: Plunkett Research, Euromonitor International, Skift

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT S O … T R AV E L

1) GIANT INDUSTRY
2) ABOVE-GDP GROWTH
3) SECULAR SHIFT TO ONLINE
4) PRODUCES SOME…

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
INCREDIBLE WINNERS

90x

80x
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

70x

60x

50x

40x 74.2x

30x

20x

10x 6.1x

0x
7/05 7/06 7/07 7/08 7/09 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
ECONOMICS 101

P
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

D
Q

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
O T H E R S F O C U S O N S U P P LY

P
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
TRIP FOCUSES ON DEMAND

P
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

D
Q

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
P O W E R V. F O R C E

P
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

D
Q

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
BOTH SIDES
A R E I M P O R TA N T T O T H E M A R K E T
P
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

D
Q

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT O N E FA R M O R E C R O W D E D …

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT THAN THE OTHER…

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
V A L U AT I O N S A L S O O F F

138.1x
EV/EBITDA
STEP 1: ABSTRACT THOUGHT

30x

25x 22.0x

20x

14.0x 13.9x 13.7x


15x

10x

5x

0x
TRVG PCLN EXPE YELP TRIP

S U P P LY DEMAND
W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 1

S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
M O B I L E G R O W I N G FA S T E R

Monthly Hotel Shoppers CAGR +17.1%


S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

160

140

120

100 Mobile Hotel Shoppers CAGR +39.6%

80

60
Desktop Hotel Shoppers CAGR +9.9%
40

20

0
12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15

12/16
3/13

6/13

9/13

3/14

6/14

9/14

3/15

6/15

9/15

3/16

6/16

9/16

3/17
GreenWood Estimates Based on Company Disclosures

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
MOBILE SALES GAP

Mobile Monetization (as % of desktop)


S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%
12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15

12/16
3/13

6/13

9/13

3/14

6/14

9/14

3/15

6/15

9/15

3/16

6/16

9/16

3/17
GreenWood Estimates Based on Company Disclosures

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
WHY?

Click-through experience not seamless on mobile.


S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S H E N C E , I N S TA N T B O O K

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
E A R LY I B S N A F U S
BEST PRICING NOT OBVIOUS
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
E A R LY I B S N A F U S
BEST PRICING NOT OBVIOUS
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S P R O B L E M S O LV E D

FIXES BEGAN IN 2H 2016


1) I B O N LY P R O M I N E N T LY
F E AT U R E D W H E N B E S T- P R I C E
2) USERS IDENTIFIED AS
RESEARCHERS OR EXECUTORS
3) S E A R C H R E S U LT S R A N K E D B Y
“ B E S T V A L U E ” R AT H E R T H A N
J U S T R AT I N G
4) TV ADVERTISING BEGINNING
T O D AY T O B U I L D A W A R E N E S S

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
W
HA
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

T
AB
O
UT
G
O
O
G
Google’s History of

LE
Ad Labeling

?
Source: Search Engine Land

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
W H AT A B O U T G O O G L E ?
Paid Search Has Been Ramping
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

140 37% 38% 38% 40%


Desktop Hotel Users 37%
36%
Non-TV Marketing Spend
120 35%
31%

30%
100 25% 106.2
23% 101.5
23% 96.2 25%
92.9 90.5 92.7
80
78.1 80.3 20%
60
62.6 15%
40
10%

20 5%

0 0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
We expect it to continue…
GreenWood estimates using data from TRIP

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
TRIP AN SEO DREAM
TRIP’s strength is terrific in organic (unpaid) search
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

SOURCES OF TRAFFIC
80%
71% TRIP EXPE KYAK
70%

60%

50% 43%
38%
40%
28%
30% 25%
21%
17% 19%
20%
10%
8% 6%
10% 5%4%
3% 1%1%1% 1% 1%1%1%
0%
Direct Organic Referrals Paid Search Social Mail Display Ads
Search

Is also it’s biggest potential weakness…


Sources: SimilarWeb

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
ONE WITHOUT THE OTHER

Bearish analysts expect paid search spending to


S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

continue climbing, but desktop users to decline.


You can’t have both of these factors together.

Possible

M Highly
ing ar in
g
k et ke
tin k e t
Unlikely
ar g ar
M M

Us Us
ers er er
Us s s

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S GOOGLE’S EFFORTS THWARTED

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S TV EFFECTIVE

Google Trends
100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10
TripAdvisor trivago Priceline Booking.com Expedia
0
7/8/12 7/8/13 7/8/14 7/8/15 7/8/16

(Indexed, not to scale of traffic)

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S COMPETITION

NPS
Mitigating this TV-ad blitz is the
fact that Trivago’s NPS is terribly
low, so it’s paying for traffic that
will quickly erode.
-7
Zero differentiation in its product.

All marketing.

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
W H AT
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

ABOUT

AI?

“SIRI, BOOK ME
A V A C AT I O N . ”
-NO ONE EVER

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S D ATA C R U C I A L F O R A I

MOST TRAFFICKED WEBSITE


300
Q1 US Traffic (millions)
250

200

150

100

50

M O S T P O P U L A R T R AV E L A P P
>230 MILLION DOWNLOADS
1 5 0 M I L L I O N M O N T H LY U N I Q U E S
4 2 % M O B I L E T R AV E L E R S H A R E

Sources: SimilarWeb, Frederic Gonzalez

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S D ATA I S P O W E R

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 2 : D O W N S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

AI
HIGHLIGHTS
S T R AT E G I C

VA L U E

M O R E L I K E A N U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 2

S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
H O T E L M O N E T I Z AT I O N

Cost-Per-Click Instant-Booking
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

$2.25 $27-45
PER CLICK P E R AV G . B O O K I N G
12-15% COMMISSION

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
H O T E L M O N E T I Z AT I O N

Cost-Per-Click Instant-Booking
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

$2.25 $27-45
PER CLICK P E R AV G . B O O K I N G
12-15% COMMISSION

D E S P I T E E A R LY D I L U T I O N & P O O R E X E C U T I O N ,

THIS IS VERY BIG LONG-TERM

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
H O T E L M O N E T I Z AT I O N
BIGGEST NEEDLE-MOVER IS IMPROVEMENT IN
CONVERSION
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

TRIP Hotel-Based Revenue


$9,000
Phantom Other Hotel Hotel Transaction
a s t,
$8,000
re c
a f o o n l y
$7,000 o t
N trati v e
$6,000 illus
$5,000 $7,510
$8,260
$4,000

$3,000

$2,000

$1,000 $837 $750


$696 $870
$588
$0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Convert @ LT Potential
EXPE/PCLN

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S $2T OPPORTUNITY

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S P E N E T R AT I O N B U I L D I N G

Prior to being taken private,


OPEN showed solid ex-US
progress on penetration
International Diners / Restaurant
2,000
1,807
1,800
1,600
1,400 1,266
1,200
1,000 896

800 638
600 468
400
200
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S R E S TA U R A N T U P S I D E

ACQUIRED FOR $2.6B


JUNE, 2014

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S R E S TA U R A N T U P S I D E

ACQUIRED FOR $2.6B


JUNE, 2014
R E S TA U R A N T S :
23.8K US
+7.7K EU
31.5K WW

$82.4K
PER

R E S TA U R A N T

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S R E S TA U R A N T U P S I D E

ACQUIRED FOR $2.6B


JUNE, 2014
R E S TA U R A N T S :
23.8K US
+7.7K EU
4 1 K R E S TA U R A N T S
31.5K WW BOOKABLE

$82.4K = $3.4B
PER

R E S TA U R A N T S T R AT E G I C V A L U E

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S R E S TA U R A N T U P S I D E

4 1 K R E S TA U R A N T S
BOOKABLE
<0% EBITDA
70% EV
= $3.4B S T R AT E G I C V A L U E

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
R E S TA U R A N T U P S I D E

TRIP Restaurant Revenue


S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

$1,200

$1,000

$800
Monetizing @ OPEN’s
$520
2013 diners/restaurant
$600
$1,055
$400
$348

$200
$148 $187
$0 $11 $37 $38

All drops to bottom-line.


GreenWood Estimates based on La Fourchette and TRIP data.

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S R E S TA U R A N T U P S I D E

A D M I T T E D D E F E AT

“OpenTable's post-acquisition strategy was premised on


significant and rapid investment in international
expansion… As this strategy was achieving limited
progress, in the third quarter of 2016 OpenTable modified
its strategy. As a result…[we] recognized a non-deductible
goodwill impairment charge of $940.7 million.”

2016 10-K

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S T H E P E R F E C T PA I R

LS
R

R E S TA U R A N T S
TRUSTED FOR
R E S TA U R A N T S U
TRUSTED FOR

TE
S
T
E

O
D

H
F

R
O

FO
R
H
O

D
T

TE
E
LS

US
TR

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S T H AT W E D O N ’ T W A N T…

WE DON’T WANT A BUYOUT

W O U L D R AT H E R A L - T H O L D I N G

BUT IT’S A REAL RISK…


W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S AT T R A C T I O N S

T H E O N LY O N E T R U S T E D
F O R AT T R A C T I O N S

$250B
TA M
Data Source: Euromonitor International

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
FA S T E S T G R O W I N G

Millions of Places Reviewed


8,000
S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

Restaurants Hotels Vacation Rentals Attractions


7,000
R + 5 6%
6,000 CAG
%
CAGR +27
5,000
%
CAGR +12
4,000

3,000

2,000
CAGR +35%
1,000

0
12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15

12/16
3/13

6/13

9/13

3/14

6/14

9/14

3/15

6/15

9/15

3/16

6/16

9/16

3/17
W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
FOCUSED ON CONVERSION

7% of reviewed attractions are bookable.


S T E P 3 : U P S I D E C O N S I D E R AT I O N S

~7% bookings now taking place on TRIP.

AT T R A C T I O N S R E V E N U E
$500
Improves +7%
$450
$400
Incremental
$151
$350 $300 million all
$300 drops to bottom
$250 line (EBITDA
$149 $452
$200 +88% from LTM)
$150
$100
$153
$50 $112
$36
$0
2014 2015 2016 Conversion Bookable NT Potential
GreenWood estimates based on data provided by TRIP and subsidiaries.

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
PUTTING IT TOGETHER

STEP 3

STEP 4: RANGE OF OUTCOMES

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
SKEWED RANGE OF OUTCOMES
250

200
STEP 4: RANGE OF OUTCOMES

150

100

50

0
12-11 12-12 12-13 12-14 12-15 12-16 12-17 12-18 12-19 12-20

Our estimated
probability
distribution

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
SKEWED RANGE OF OUTCOMES
250

200
STEP 4: RANGE OF OUTCOMES

150

100

50

0
12-11 12-12 12-13 12-14 12-15 12-16 12-17 12-18 12-19 12-20

Multiple compression Multiple compression Average historical Average historical


to trough after more to trough on 2017 multiple given relative multiple with healthy
monetization leakage, results, which we view success in keeping monetization of dining
stalled traffic and still to be the bottom. traffic, but at a higher & attractions and
a high marketing Terrible traffic and cost. Progress on better organic traffic
budget. monetization. dining & attractions. (hotel margins rise).

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
W H AT E N S U R E S T O P - E N D O U T C O M E S ?

STEP 4

STEP 5: PERFORMANCE DRIVERS

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 5: PERFORMANCE DRIVERS
PERFORMANCE DRIVERS

Always trying to maximize success factors:

1. Management capability ½ Weighted


2. Industry characteristics 5. Capacity to Invest (Compounder)
6. Crowding in the investment
3. Competitive advantages 7. Cyclicality of the business
4. Conscious capitalists 8. Earnings Quality (Cash Conversion)

MA IN CA CC

CO CR CY EQ

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 5: PERFORMANCE DRIVERS A+ OVERSIGHT

MAFFEI MALONE

S L I G H T LY O F F S E T B Y B - R AT E D M A N A G E M E N T
MA
W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 5: PERFORMANCE DRIVERS AT T R A C T I V E I N D U S T R Y & M O AT

$1.3T
Losing Share
Gaining Share

$567,
44%

Online $733,
+10.5% 56%
Offline
+1.6%

IN CA
W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
AT T R A C T I V E I N D U S T R Y & M O AT

Current TRIP
Monetization - 27 bps
STEP 5: PERFORMANCE DRIVERS

Massive ASTOUNDING REACH:


Runway & • >3.5B UNIQUE ANNUAL USERS
Growing • MOST TRAFFICKED/TRUSTED
DD%
• MOST DOWNLOADED APP
$556B • HIGHEST NPS (43)
• INFLUENCES >½ TRIPS

CO CA
W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 5

STEP 6: ROADMAP

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
P R E D I C TA B I L I T Y L O W
BUSINESS MODEL CHANGES
M A K I N G P R E D I C TA B I L I T Y L O W E R
Surprise History
6%

4%
STEP 6: ROADMAP

2%

0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
-2%

-4%

-6%

-8%
Revenue Earnings
-10%

GUIDANCE WITHDRAWN
Data source: CapIQ

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
PEAK SHORT INTEREST

120 18%
Stock (LH) Short Interest 16%
100 (RH) 14%
12%
STEP 6: ROADMAP

80
10%
60 8%
6%
40
4%
2%
20
0%
0 -2%
12/11

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15

12/16
3/12
6/12
9/12

3/13
6/13
9/13

3/14
6/14
9/14

3/15
6/15
9/15

3/16
6/16
9/16

3/17
Data Source: CapIQ

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
P E A K S H O R T R AT I N G S

30 Sell-side Ratings

25
Buys
STEP 6: ROADMAP

20

15
Holds
10

5 Shorts

Data Source: CapIQ

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 6: ROADMAP C O N T R A - I N D I C AT O R

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 6: ROADMAP

$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120

$0
12/11
3/12
6/12
9/12
12/12
3/13
6/13
9/13
12/13
3/14
6/14
9/14
12/14
3/15

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
6/15
9/15
PEAK PESSIMISM

12/15
3/16
6/16
AT A 4 . 7 - Y E A R L O W

9/16
12/16
3/17
6/17
W I T H L O W E R P R O F I T V I S I B I L I T Y,
W H AT O T H E R M E T R I C S A R E U S E F U L
STEP 6: ROADMAP

T O M E A S U R E H E A LT H O F T R I P ?

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
ECOSYSTEM GROWING

U N I Q U E M O N T H LY U S E R S ( M I L L I O N S )
450

400
STEP 6: ROADMAP

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0
3/12
6/12
9/12

3/13
6/13
9/13

3/14
6/14
9/14

3/15
6/15
9/15

3/16
6/16
9/16

3/17
12/11

12/12

12/13

12/14

12/15

12/16
GreenWood estimates using TRIP Data

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
E N G A G E M E N T A C C E L E R AT I N G

R E V I E W S P E R U S E R P E R D AY
1.4
1.19
1.2
STEP 6: ROADMAP

1.0 0.94

0.8 0.71
0.64
0.58 0.59
0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
URSA EMPTOR

25% 5%
Unique Hotel Shoppers (LH)
Transaction Revenue Per Shopper (RH)
0%
20%
STEP 6: ROADMAP

-5%
15%

-10%

10%
-15%

5%
-20%

0% -25%
3/15 6/15 9/15 12/15 3/16 6/16 9/16 12/16 3/17

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
STEP 6: ROADMAP

10%
20%
30%
40%
50%

-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
7/7/13
9/7/13
11/7/13
1/7/14
3/7/14
5/7/14
7/7/14
9/7/14
11/7/14
1/7/15
3/7/15

with Sales/User trough


Bottom perfectly coincides
5/7/15
7/7/15
9/7/15
11/7/15
1/7/16

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
3/7/16
5/7/16
7/7/16
CHANGE IN GOOGLE TRENDS

9/7/16
11/7/16
1/7/17
3/7/17
ORGANIC SEARCH IMPROVING

5/7/17
CHEAPEST IN CLASS
138.1x
EV/EBITDA
30x

25x
22.0x
STEP 6: ROADMAP

20x

14.6x 14.0x 13.9x


15x 13.7x

10x

5x

0x
TRVG PCLN GOOGL EXPE YELP TRIP

Given insignificant interest & capex, 80% EBITDA = Cash Earnings


W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
CONCLUSION

SKEWED SUCCES DRIVERS


POTENTIALITIES OPTIMIZED
250

200
CONCLUSION

150 MA IN CA CC

100

50 CO CR CY EQ

0
12-11 12-12 12-13 12-14 12-15 12-16 12-17 12-18 12-19 12-20

E X P E C TAT I O N S V S . R E A L I T Y
H I G H LY F A V O R A B L E

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
R E L AT E D R E A D I N G

THESIS:
EXCHANGE
DRIVES

E C O N O M Y,
I N N O V AT I O N ,

GENETIC
EVOLUTION.

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
T R I P A C C E L E R AT E S E X C H A N G E
ECONOMY
I N N O V AT I O N
EVOLUTION

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M
E X C H A N G E , I N N O V AT E , E V O LV E .
LET US KNOW IF YOU’D LIKE TO BE KEPT ABREAST OF TRIP &

COME VISIT US!

Global - Deep Value - Special Situations

W W W. G W I N V E S T O R S . C O M

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