Methodology for Pavement Design Reliability

and Back Analysis Using Markov Chain Monte

Carlo Simulation
Dilip, Deepthi Mary; Babu, G L Sivakumar, MASCE . Journal of Transportation Engineering ; New York
 Vol. 139, Iss. 1,  (Jan 2013): 65.

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RESUMEN
 
Given the increasing cost of designing and building new highway pavements, reliability analysis has become vital
to ensure that a given pavement performs as expected in the field. Recognizing the importance of failure analysis
to safety, reliability, performance, and economy, back analysis has been employed in various engineering
applications to evaluate the inherent uncertainties of the design and analysis. The probabilistic back analysis
method formulated on Bayes' theorem and solved using the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation method with a
Metropolis-Hastings algorithm has proved to be highly efficient to address this issue. It is also quite flexible and is
applicable to any type of prior information. In this paper, this method has been used to back-analyze the
parameters that influence the pavement life and to consider the uncertainty of the mechanistic-empirical
pavement design model. The load-induced pavement structural responses (e.g., stresses, strains, and deflections)
used to predict the pavement life are estimated using the response surface methodology model developed based
on the results of linear elastic analysis. The failure criteria adopted for the analysis were based on the factor of
safety (FOS), and the study was carried out for different sample sizes and jumping distributions to estimate the
most robust posterior statistics. From the posterior statistics of the case considered, it was observed that after
approximately 150 million standard axle load repetitions, the mean values of the pavement properties decrease as
expected, with a significant decrease in the values of the elastic moduli of the expected layers. An analysis of the
posterior statistics indicated that the parameters that contribute significantly to the pavement failure were the
moduli of the base and surface layer, which is consistent with the findings from other studies. After the back
analysis, the base modulus parameters show a significant decrease of 15.8% and the surface layer modulus a
decrease of 3.12% in the mean value. The usefulness of the back analysis methodology is further highlighted by
estimating the design parameters for specified values of the factor of safety. The analysis revealed that for the
pavement section considered, a reliability of 89% and 94% can be achieved by adopting FOS values of 1.5 and 2,
respectively. The methodology proposed can therefore be effectively used to identify the parameters that are
critical to pavement failure in the design of pavements for specified levels of reliability. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]

DETALLES

Materia: Monte Carlo simulation; Asphalt pavements; Civil engineering; Markov analysis

Título: Methodology for Pavement Design Reliability and Back Analysis Using Markov Chain
Monte Carlo Simulation

Autor: Dilip, Deepthi Mary; Babu, G L Sivakumar, MASCE

Título de publicación: Journal of Transportation Engineering; New York

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 Tomo: 139

Número: 1

Primera página: 65

Año de publicación: 2013

Fecha de publicación: Jan 2013

Sección: Technical Papers

Editorial: American Society of Civil Engineers

Lugar de publicación: New York

País de publicación: United States, New York

Materia de publicación: Engineering--Civil Engineering, Transportation

ISSN: 0733947X

CODEN: JTPEDI

Tipo de fuente: Scholarly Journals

Idioma de la publicación: English

Tipo de documento: Feature

ID del documento de 1268838046

ProQuest:

URL del documento: https://search.proquest.com/docview/1268838046?accountid=41515

Copyright: Copyright American Society of Civil Engineers Jan 2013

Última actualización: 2013-01-12

Base de datos: ProQuest Central

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