DENNY ALEXANDER - ADMINISTRATIVE LAW

ONE CHILD POLICY-INDIA VIS A VIS CHINA

Prepared for: Prof Deepa Manickam

Prepared by: Denny Alexander
BA0150011
Fifth Semester(THIRD YEAR)
DENNY ALEXANDER

SUPERVISOR’S CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that the Project Report entitled: “ONE CHILD POLICY-INDIA VIS A VIS
CHINA” submitted to the Tamil Nadu National Law School in partial fulfillment of the
requirements for B.A LL.B (Hons.), fifth semester is an original and bona-fide research work carried
out by DENNY ALEXANDER under my supervision and guidance. No part of this study has been
submitted to any University for the award of any Degree or Diploma whatsoever.

______________________

PROF DEEPA MANICKAM

PREFACE

This project is intended to carry out an extensive research on the given topic by the supervisor. The
research and analysis conducted by the researcher is bona-fide and purely for academic purposes.
The borrowed facts, data and opinions presented are from the internet media and books according
to the supervisor.

Every effort is made to keep the project error free. I would gratefully acknowledge the suggestions
to improve the project to make it more useful.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
DENNY ALEXANDER- ADMINISTRATIVE LAW

On the successful completion of this project, I would like to thank our respected mentor, our
Administrative Law Lecturer, PROF DEEPA MANICKAM who despite all of his pre-
occupations, provided me all the assistance I needed for the accomplishment of this project and
guided me while I tread on the tenebrous boulevard of ignorance. Had it not been for his support I
wouldn’t be able to grasp the cognizance of something as enthralling as this. I thank him profusely
for providing me this engrossing topic to work on which helped me to learn and relearn, to explore
and re-explore our knowledge of Interpretation of Statues.

I also thank our honourable Vice Chancellor, Mr.KAMALA SHANKAR, and our esteemed
Registrar, for their inexplicable greatness to find time to educate us as and when they find an
opportunity.

I would like to convey our gratitude towards our friends and batch mates who have rendered me
their valuable time and without their help this project would not have been in its present shape and
form.

No work is complete with solo endeavour, neither is mine. I thank each and every non-teaching
staff of TNNLS for their unconditional support and infinitum. I would also like to convey our thanks
to the Library Staff of TNNLS.

I am grateful to The Almighty, who has given me enough strength and blessings to work hard and
make it to the best of our ability.

Last but not the least; I thank my parents who have given me a chance to study in this esteemed
University, a heaven for legal edification.

______________________

DENNY ALEXANDER

DECLARATION
I do hereby declare that the project entitled “ONE CHILD POLICY-INDIA VIS A VIS
CHINA” submitted to Tamil Nadu National law school in partial fulfillment of requirement
of award of degree in undergraduate in law is a record of original work done by me under
the supervision and guidance of PROF DEEPA MANICKAM department of law(IR) of Tamil
Nadu National law school and has not formed basis for award of any degree or diploma or
fellowship or any other title to any candidate of any university.

RESEARCH OBJECTIVE

To understand the concept of One Child Policy of China & its repercussions.
 To comprehend the reasons responsible for the implementation of the One Child Policy by
China.
To elaborate and comprehend the results of the One Child Policy of China.
To analyze the reasons behind the recent withdrawal of the policy after around 45 years
from its implementation.
To compare Indo-China population growth over the last five decades

INTRODUCTION
China has always been known for its hard to believe policy formulations and their beyond
imagination implementations, be it the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution or Great Leap
Forward or the magnanimous Special Economic Zone (SEZ) policy, 1China has always taken
far-reaching steps under its One Party - Communist Rule to ensure its socio-economic growth.
One such highly talked and hotly debated policy step has been the One Child Policy OCP
adopted by China since the year 1978 (which is recently taken back on 29th October, 2015 by
the Government of China).
Revoking the policy by the government may have brought smiles on the faces of innumerable
couples across China, yet a segment of Economists are sceptical about success of the pull-back
due to reasons like high cost of (quality) living and even conditioning of people living in a
three-members family, over all these years. This text is an attempt to understand and analyse
the policy and its repercussions on the socio-economic conditions of China. In addition, an
attempt is also made to make a comparative study of Indo-China population growth over the
last few decade China's one child policy was established by Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in
1979 to limit communist China's population growth. Although designated a "temporary
measure," it continues a quarter-century after its establishment. The policy limits couples to

1
China's One-Child Policy and the Population Explosion By Button, Graham Indian Journal of Economics
and Business, Vol. 10, No. 4, December 2011
one child. Fines, pressures to abort a pregnancy, and even forced sterilization accompanied
second or subsequent pregnancies.
It is not an all-encompassing rule because it has always been restricted to ethnic Han Chinese
living in urban areas.

2
Citizens living in rural areas and minorities living in China are not subject to the law. However,
the rule has been estimated to have reduced population growth in the country of 1.3 billion by as
much as 300 million people over its first twenty years.
This rule has caused a disdain for female infants; abortion, neglect, abandonment, and even
infanticide have been known to occur in female infants. The result of such Draconian family
planning has resulted in the disparate ratio of 114 males for every 100 females among babies from
birth through children four years of age. Normally, 105 males are naturally born for every 100
females.The one-child policy, a part of the family planning policy, was a population planning
policy of China.

It was introduced in 1979 and began to be formally phased out in 2015.The policy allowed
exceptions for many groups, including ethnic minorities.In 2007, 36% of China's population was
subject to a strict one-child restriction, with an additional 53% being allowed to have a second
child if the first child was a girl.

Provincial governments imposed fines for violations, and the local and national governments
created commissions to raise awareness and carry out registration and inspection work.
According to the Chinese government, 400 million births were prevented.

This claim has been called "False" by scholars, because "Three-quarters of the decline in fertility
since 1970 occurred before the launching of the one-child policy; and most of the further decline
in fertility since 1980 can be attributed to economic development." Thailand and Iran, along with

2
Wang, Feng. "Can China afford to continue its one-child policy?." (2005).
the Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, have had similar declines of fertility without a one-
child policy.

Although 76% of Chinese people supported the policy in a 2008 survey, it was controversial
outside of China.On October 29, 2015, it was reported that the existing law would be changed to a
two-child policy, citing a statement from the Communist Party of China.

The new law became effective on January 1, 2016, following its passage in the standing
committee of the National People's Congress on December 27, 2015.

Outcomes of One child policy

Now that millions of sibling-less people in China are now young adults in or nearing their child-
bearing years, a special provision allows millions of couples to have two children legally. If a
couple is composed of two people without siblings, then they may have two children of their own,
thus preventing too dramatic of a population decrease.

Although IUDs, sterilization, and abortion (legal in China) are China's most popular forms of birth
control, over the past few years, China has provided more education and support for alternative
birth control methods.
3
Statistically, China's total fertility rate (the number of births per woman) is 1.7, much higher than
slowly-declining Germany at 1.4 but lower than the U.S. at 2.1 (2.1 births per woman is the
replacement level of fertility, representing a stable population, exclusive of migration).

In 2007, there were reports that in the southwestern Guangxi Autonomous Region of China,
officials were forcing pregnant women without permission to give birth to have abortions and

3
Chinese Society: Change, Conflict and Resistance By Elizabeth J. Perry; Mark Selden Routledge Curzon,
2003 (2nd edition)
levying steep fines on families violating the law. As a result, riots broke out and some may have
been killed, including population control officials.

4
Between 1981 and 1991, the annual rate of population growth was estimated at about 2% in
India.
The crude birth rate in 1992 was 30 per 1000, only a small change over the 1981 level of 34 per
1000, after the family planning scheme had been initiated.

This shows how China's population policy was a lot more efficient than India's.

India's government became too fixated on sterilizations, so this began to put many people off and
people began to ignore the family planning service.China's was more effective mainly due to their
forced sterilizations and use of punishments if a couple had more than one child.Too much
propaganda and being told what to do lead the people of India to turn against the scheme.It was
also difficult to change their traditions, as usually, large families are normal.
Not enough awareness in the more rural areas also meant that it was harder for these people to
hear about the family planning schemes.

Removal of the One Child Policy – Reasons and Likely Impact

4
Short, Susan E., et al. "China's one-child policy and the care of children: An analysis of qualitative and
quantitative data." Social Forces 79.3 (2001): 913-943.
51. Forced Abortions.
Perhaps, one of the setbacks and negative effect of this social experiment is the high number of
abortions women had to go through just so they will not be forced to pay fines and sometimes be
forced to undergo sterilizations. Reports say that doctors perform 1,500 abortions even if the
mother is already seven months pregnant. Women suffer not only physically but also
psychologically and emotionally.
2. Added Burden on Children.
Being an only child might give one the perks of having his or her toys for himself or herself and
for getting all the attention of parents. However, a major disadvantage here is when parents are old
and sickly. It will be hard for the child to juggle between family life, career and care of parents. It
is already difficult enough to take care of an elderly, how much more if there are two people to
take care of. Moreover, if the finances are low and medical attention is needed, the financial
burden will be carried by the child alone. Unlike with having a sibling or sibling, being the only
child can be a burden in the future.
3. Increased Adoption Number.
The implementation of this policy also forced parents who did not want to abort their second
children to either hide them or send them up for adoption. Also, since sons are more favored
choices in families, some girls who were born were also put up for adoption in other countries like
the United States. Female babies were either hidden or adopted, if not having to be aborted.
4. Transference of Frustration.
6
Reports also say that parents who had to follow this forceful and stringent policy had kept their
frustrations inside and over the years, transferred their emotions to their children. Consequently,
much more is expected from their children when it comes to education and achievements. This is

5
Qian, Nancy. Quantity-quality and the one child policy: The only-child disadvantage in school enrollment
in rural China. No. w14973. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2009. Qian, Nancy. Quantity-quality
and the one child policy: The only-child disadvantage in school enrollment in rural China. No. w14973.
National Bureau of Economic Research, 2009.
6
Das Gupta, Monica, et al. "Why is son preference so persistent in East and South Asia? A cross-
country study of China, India and the Republic of Korea." The Journal of Development Studies
40.2 (2003): 153-187.
why these children are considered the “Lonely Generation” because despite the comfortable life
they enjoy, they carry a burden as well. Not only do they get too much attention that can feel
suffocated with, they are expected to work hard and excel. All these responsibilities can have a
negative impact on the children.
5. Lack of Skills.
Some children who were born during the social experimentation say that since they were given all
the attention and considered princes and princesses, this has also led for them to lack in skills in
life. Since they lived comfortably and did not have to work hard to earn and get education, they
will find it hard to adjust in certain situations that require manual labor or handyman skills.
The One Child Policy of China has a great impact on Chinese parents and children. Although
some children born in this generation are happy and content, there are also those who wished the
policy was more lenient. As for whether it is what is best for the country or its relaxation is the
better option, the result will appear in the coming years.

Comparison of demographic data of India and China:

Demographic Dividend refers to the rise in the rate of economic growth due to a rising share of
working age people in a population. India's demographic dividend- i.e. its working-age (15-59
years) population, as of now, largely consists of youth (15-34 years), and as a result its economy
has the potential to grow more quickly than that of many other countries including neighboring
China. Technically, this usually occurs late in the demographic transition when the fertility rate
falls and the youth dependency rate declines.

7
According to economists, the working population in India is set to rise considerably over the next
decade or more. By 2020, the average Indian will be only 29 years of age, compared with 37 in
China and the U.S., 45 in Western Europe, and 48 in Japan. Moreover, by 2030, India will have
the youngest median age of 31.2 years, while China’s will be 42.5 years. Most major economies
will see a decline of working age adults (20-64 years).

This means that India will see a significant rise in working age adults India's “dependency ratio,”
that is the number of dependents to working people is low at 0.6, compared with the developed
countries. That ratio is going to decline further with fertility rates continuing to fall. The
demographic dividend is a window of opportunity in the development of a society or nation that
opens up as fertility rates decline when faster rates of economic growth and human development
are possible when combined with effective policies. With the declining working age population in
the other countries particularly developed countries, more jobs emanating from the developed
countries will be outsourced and India can gain from it due to demographic dividend. According
to International Monetary Fund (IMF), India’s continuing demographic dividend can add about 2
percent to the annual rate of economic growth, if harnessed properly.

An increase in the share of a country’s working-age (15–64 years) can generate faster economic
growth. The working-age population is generally more productive and saves more increasing
domestic resources for investment. The demographic dividend has been regarded as a key factor
for economic growth.

7
Hesketh, Therese, Li Lu, and Zhu Wei Xing. "The effect of China's one-child family policy after
25 years." (2005): 1171-1176.
8
However, there are many challenges which India needs to overcome to harness the opportunities
created by demographic dividend. The growth in the working-age ratio is likely to be concentrated
in some of India’s poorest states and that the demographic dividend will be fully realized only if
India is able to create gainful employment opportunities for this working-age population.

Since most of the new jobs that will be created in the future will be highly skilled and lack of skill
in Indian workforce is another serious challenge. There are serious problems with Indian higher
education. These include a shortage of high quality faculty, poor incentive structures, lack of good
regulation.As bad as Indian higher education is, the worst problems are in primary education.
After all, without a good foundation, subsequent education cannot happen easily and effectively.
This is true even for vocational training, not just elite education for the advantaged and talented.
At the primary level, there are also serious problems with health and nutrition that impact the
effectiveness of education and the capacity for learning.

According to the Human Development Report (HDR) published by the United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP), India is still in the medium human development category with
countries like China, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Philippines, Egypt, Indonesia, South Africa, and even
Vietnam has a better rank. Therefore health and education parameters need to be improved
substantially to make the Indian workforce efficient and skilled.

Government has undertaken some measures to impart skills to the Indian workforce to reap the
benefits of demographic dividends. Major challenge of skill development initiatives is also to
address the needs of huge population by providing skills in order to make them employable and
help them secure decent work.

8
Qian, N. (2009). Quantity-quality and the one child policy: The only-child disadvantage in
school enrollment in rural China (No. w14973). National Bureau of Economic Research.
9
Government established National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) to contribute
significantly (about 30 per cent) to the overall target of skilling / up skilling 500 million people in
India by 2022, mainly by fostering private sector initiatives in skill development programmes and
providing funding. Major objectives of NSDC are :

• Upgrade skills to international standards through significant industry involvement and develop
necessary frameworks for standards, curriculum and quality assurance
• Enhance, support and coordinate private sector initiatives for skill development through
appropriate Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models; strive for significant operational and
financial involvement from the private sector
• Focus on underprivileged sections of society and backward regions of the country thereby
enabling a move out of poverty; similarly, focus significantly on the unorganized or informal
sector workforce.
• Play the role of a "market-maker" by bringing financing, particularly in sectors where market
mechanisms are ineffective or missing
• Prioritize initiatives that can have a multiplier or catalytic effect as opposed to one-off impact.

Thus government seems serious about harnessing the potential of demographic dividend through
development of skills. However, more holistic measures are needed to make the Indian work force
not just economically competitive but also efficiently competitive.

Moreover, measures should have pan Indian presence and not just concentrated in metropolitan
cities as most of the workforce is likely to come from the rural hinterland. It will not just help in
increasing the economic development but will also help in curbing the regional and social
inequalities.

9
Hesketh, Therese, Li Lu, and Zhu Wei Xing. "The effect of China's one-child family policy after 25
years." (2005): 1171-1176.
 INDIA VIS A VIS CHINA: A COMPARTIVE ANALYSIS

Together, China and India currently contain nearly two out of every five people in the world - and
are equal in size to the world population in 1950. China's and India's unprecedented demographic
status will not be challenged any time soon. China's and India's demographic size may also be
appreciated by noting that each of their populations is larger than those of Africa, Europe or the
entire Western hemisphere.On virtually every population measure, China is further along in its
demographic transition than India.

10
With respect to mortality, for example, life expectancy at birth in China is nearly 10 years higher
than in India, at 73 years versus 64 years.China's population is also much older than India's, with
median ages of 34 and 25 years, respectively.While most Chinese and Indians still live in rural
areas - 55% and 70%, respectively - China will soon become predominately urban, perhaps as
early as 2015.In contrast, India is expected to remain mainly rural at least until mid-century.

Due to the enormous size of their populations, international migration plays a demographically
negligible role in the growth of China and India.To aid and benefit from their non-resident
citizens, China and India have established governmental offices - the Overseas Chinese Affairs
Office of the State Council and the Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs.

Without a doubt, the most notable and consequential demographic trend for the growth of these
two billionaire nations concerns fertility.Although fertility levels in the mid-1950s were about the
same in the two countries - at six children per woman - fertility rates have declined much faster in
China than India, due in part to China's one-child family policy.

Today, China's fertility is below replacement and one child less than India's - 1.8 compared to 2.8
children per woman.

11
With its higher birth rates and younger age structure, India's population is growing more than
twice as fast as China's - 1.4% versus 0.6% annually. India's annual population increase exceeded
China's in each of the past 30 years.Both China and India have significantly more males than
females, in sharp contrast to demographics in most other nations. By 2020, it is estimated that the

10
Qian, Nancy. Quantity-quality and the one child policy: The only-child disadvantage in school
enrollment in rural China. No. w14973. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2009.

Rosenzweig, Mark R., and Junsen Zhang. "Do population control policies induce more human
11

capital investment? Twins, birth weight and China's “one-child” policy." The Review of Economic
Studies 76.3 (2009): 1149-1174.
number of young "Surplus males" unable to find brides could be more than 35 million in China
and 25 million in India. While the future remains uncertain, it is evident that the major factor
determining the future growth of the Chinese and Indian populations is fertility.

According to United Nations population projections, Chinese and Indian fertility is expected to be
at the below-replacement level of 1.85 children per woman during most of the second quarter of
this century.Based on this critical assumption, India's rapidly growing population is projected to
reach 1.61 billion by mid-century, an increase of 400 million people over the next four decades.

In contrast, China's population is expected to peak around the year 2032 at 1.46 billion - an
increase of 110 million - and then begin to decline slowly.As a result, India is expected to overtake
China as the most populous country in the world in less than two decades, perhaps around 2028.
One less likely, but nonetheless instructive, scenario assumes that the current fertility rates of
China and India remain constant over the next four decades.

12
In such a case, by mid-century India's population soars to 2 billion and China's population is
declining by 6 million annually, having peaked at 1.45 billion in 2030.India becomes more
populous than China even earlier, in a little more than a decade.Another intriguing scenario
assumes that China changes its one-child policy to a two-child policy, with its fertility soon rising
to somewhat above replacement, i.e., 2.35 children per woman, and India's fertility declines
gradually to this same fertility level as China.

13
In this instance, the populations of both China and India would be substantially larger by mid-
century, 1.62 and 1.87 billion, respectively - together gaining an additional billion people.Here
again, India becomes more populous than China within two decades.

In contrast to the earlier scenarios, the Chinese population does not peak and decline, but
continues to grow throughout the 21st century.In addition to expected noteworthy changes in their

Liu, Haoming. "The quality–quantity trade-off: evidence from the relaxation of China’s one-
12

child policy." Journal of Population Economics 27.2 (2014): 565-602.

13
Li, Hongbin, Junsen Zhang, and Yi Zhu. "The quantity-quality trade-off of children in a
developing country: Identification using Chinese twins." Demography 45.1 (2008): 223-243.
future population sizes, both China and India will have substantially older age structures in the
coming decades.Given China's older population and lower level of fertility, its future population
remains much older than India's.By mid-century, for example, one-third of China's population is
projected to be aged 60 years or older.In contrast, while the proportion of elderly in India is
expected to double, its mid-century level of 16% remains half of China's.

CONCLUSION

In the wakes of demographic crisis that China is facing, India shouldn't opt for such stance. China
is drastically poising problem of shrinking working age population, forcing to ease its one-child
policy initiated in 1980. Moreover, urbanization and price rise are proving best contraceptives,
curbing and controlling birth rate automatically. So, we shouldn't bring such policy which violates
a basic human right.As India is already struggling with many social evils like imbalanced
population, female foeticide, trafficking and other crime, having one-child policy would only bloat
up such ills. Instead we should work out on the solutions of harnessing our young and potential
demographic profile. It is a daunting task to provide basic facilities like health care, education,
food, jobs etc. to those large crowds. If we can implement facilities to formulate a quality crowd,
nothing best can happen to us.The central issue for China is whether it will soon revise its one-
child policy.Among the factors pointing to a revision of China's 30-year-old one-child policy are
the growth of its economy and personal affluence, widespread national and cultural sentiments
regarding children and its rapidly aging population. Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang recently
noted that China would continue to pursue a low birth rate while actively coping with problems
such as sex ratio imbalance and population aging and would advance the balanced development of
its population for the long term.

With regard to India, the key question is whether the country will be able to reduce its fertility
level to replacement in the near future and achieve a stable population by 2045 - as envisioned in
India's Eleventh Development Plan.

If India is unsuccessful in substantially reducing its fertility and it remains near its current level of
2.8 children per woman, the Indian population would likely reach 2 billion well before the end of
the 21st century.

Officials, scholars and others often disagree on what constitutes the "Best" population policies for
China and India - and if adopted, whether they would be successfully implemented.

There's little disagreement that whatever demographic paths China and India follow in the coming
decades, these outcomes have significant and long-term consequences not only for these two
population titans, but also for the rest the world's inhabitants.
 REVIEW OF LITERATURE
ARTICLES:

• Ebenstein, Avraham. "The “missing girls” of China and the unintended consequences of
the one child policy." Journal of Human Resources 45.1 (2010): 87-115.

In the aforesaid article the author highlighted the tragedies that came up with the
implementation of the one child policy in china. The author brings out the dark side of the
implementation of the one child policy

• Ding, Qu Jian, and Therese Hesketh. "Family size, fertility preferences, and sex ratio in
China in the era of the one child family policy: results from national family planning
and reproductive health survey." (2006): 371-373.

In the above article the author gives out a research study based on actual emperical data on
the application of the one child policy and highlights the performance of the policy by
giving out results from national surveys as well.
• Hesketh, Therese, Li Lu, and Zhu Wei Xing. "The effect of China's one-child family
policy after 25 years." (2005): 1171-1176.
In the above mentioned articles the author aims at looking into the long term impacts of
the one child policy thereby bring out the efficiency of the policy as a whole

• Qian, Nancy. Quantity-quality and the one child policy: The only-child disadvantage in
school enrollment in rural China. No. w14973. National Bureau of Economic Research,
2009.
The author in the aforesaid article analysis one administrative policy and its effect on other
policies of the govt in china .

• Wang, Feng. "Can China afford to continue its one-child policy?." (2005).

A recent paper where the author weighs the balances of the policy and talk about the
validity of the policy in the long run

BOOKS:
Governing China's Population: From Leninist to Neoliberal Biopolitics By Susan
Greenhalgh; Edwin A. Winckler
In the above book, the author highlights the evolution of the demographic dividend
in the complex structure if china and then goes onto speak about the effects of the
policy

China in the Post-Utopian Age By Christopher J. Smith Westview Press, 2000

The author in this books speaks about the period before the implementation of the
policy and then compares it to the existing Chinese society and highlights its
changes.

China's One-Child Policy and the Population Explosion By Button, Graham

Indian Journal of Economics and Business, Vol. 10, No. 4, December 2011
In this book, the authors deals with the effects of one child policy and also
highlights the indo china demographic dividends

Chinese Society: Change, Conflict and Resistance By Elizabeth J. Perry; Mark

Selden Routledge Curzon, 2003 (2nd edition)
In the aforesaid book, the author deals with the changes and obstacles faced by
the chines society in the implantation of such a policy.