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February 22, 2018

To: Bryan Caforio for Congress


From: Brian Stryker
Re: CA CD 25 primary poll findings

Bryan Caforio leads all of his Democratic opponents, holding more votes than Katie Hill
and Jess Phoenix combined. Steve Knight also polls far worse than last cycle, yet
another sign that this Clinton district is ready to flip in 2018. Caforio’s profile connects
with Democratic voters, and he maintains a significant lead with Democrats throughout
the poll.

Key Findings

• Caforio leads all Democrats, while Knight fails to clear 50% as the only
Republican in the field. Bryan Caforio has almost double the vote share of any
other Democrat (43% Knight / 19% Caforio / 10% Hill / 7% Phoenix / 5% other /
7% undecided). Caforio’s substantial lead on other Democrats is built across
demographic lines:

Caforio Hill Phoenix


Registered Dems 34 19 12
Registered DTS 23 5 11
Men 21 8 8
Women 17 11 7
Voters 65 and older 18 7 5
Voters of color 26 10 7

• Caforio’s profile motivates Democrats, and he is Democrats’ clear choice


after voters hear profile information on the three candidates currently
raising significant funds. Voters heard profile information on Caforio, Hill, and
Phoenix (see Appendix A), and Caforio maintains his big lead among self-
identified Democrats (41% Caforio / 27% Hill / 17% Phoenix).

The following findings are based off a poll of n=500 likely June 2018 California primary voters conducted
in English and Spanish, February 11-15, 2018. The survey was conducted on cellphones and landlines; it
has a margin of sampling error of +4.4% and higher for subgroups.
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research | 2

Appendix A – Profiles tested

Bryan Caforio is the son of two public school teachers, a Yale Law School graduate,
and a former clerk for a federal judge. Caforio wants to use his skills and experience to
stop Trump's attacks on the Constitution and working families. Caforio wants to even
the playing field and put hardworking families first so they can get ahead. He will fight
Trump's attempts to take healthcare away, repeal Trump's tax increases on the middle-
class, and stop Trump's assault on immigrant families and Dreamers.

Katie Hill, the daughter of a police officer and a nurse, grew up in our area and lives with
her husband on a small farm in Agua Dulce. After putting herself through school, she
ran a statewide organization that provided housing to homeless veterans, families, and
seniors. Hill balanced a multi-million dollar budget, passed bipartisan legislation, and
helped create thousands of local jobs. Hill will take on the broken system and the
politicians who put the special interests first.

Jess Phoenix is a volcano scientist and geologist who believes Trump and Knight both
deny the science of climate change, which impacts our economy, health, and way of
life. She'll bring evidence-based decision-making to Congress to find solutions to protect
our environment, end the gun violence epidemic, and provide healthcare for everyone.