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Margin Analysis
Other income was down due MARGIN ANALYSIS 3QFY18 3QFY17 YoY (bps) 2QFY18 QoQ (bps)
to increase in bond yield and Software service expenses % of Net Sales 19.7 16.3 347 18.8 92
~80% of the investment Employee Expenses % of Net Sales 27.7 28.8 (114) 26.5 115
Other Operating Expenses % of Net Sales 30.4 26.8 358 23.3 710
portfolio is exposed to
EBITDA Margin (%) 22.2 28.1 (591) 31.3 (917)
volatility in bond yield
Tax Rate (%) 26.7 26.0 68 27.0 (33)
APAT Margin (%) 30.8 49.5 (1,869) 42.1 (1,133)
Source: Company, HDFC Sec Inst Research
There was increase in other
expenses related to member
engagement activity and
events organised (extra cost
incurred this quarter was Rs
25mn)
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MCX : RESULT REVIEW 3QFY18
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
There has been an increase in
Source: Company, Industry, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, Industry, HDFC sec Inst Research
physical deliveries for cotton
& gold.
Market Share Of Key Commodity Exchanges MCX’s Traded Value: Sectoral Composition
MCX NCDEX Others Bullion Energy Base Metals Agri
100%
100%
6 90%
Market share stands at 89.1% 90% 16
10 11 10 9 9 9 10
80% 28 24 25 26 34 34
37 39 43
(down 86 bps QoQ). 70%
80%
60% 34
70% 32 33
50% 35
34 33 35 31
60% 89 89 89 93 90 90 90 89 40% 32
83
30%
50%
20% 35 40 40 39
40% 30 27 29 29
10% 23
30% 0%
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
Source: Company, Industry, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, Industry, HDFC sec Inst Research
Page | 3
MCX : RESULT REVIEW 3QFY18
MCX: Quarterly Trading Value Analysis MCX: Detailed KPIs Of Contracts Traded
Trading value (Rs tn): LHS ADTV (Rs bn): RHS Contracts traded (mn) Avg contract value (Rs mn) - RHS
18.0 16.0 16.4 270 80 0.28
16.0 14.5 68
13.9 14.1 250 70 62 0.27
13.0 12.7 61
14.0 12.4 12.0 57 55
60 53 0.26
12.0 230 47 48 48
50 0.25
10.0
210 40 0.24
8.0
6.0 190 30 0.23
4.0 20 0.22
170
2.0 10 0.21
- 150 - 0.20
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
Source: Company, Industry, HDFC sec Inst Research Source: Company, Industry, HDFC sec Inst Research
Page | 4
MCX : RESULT REVIEW 3QFY18
Valuation
We expect MCX to post 26% EBITDA CAGR, driven by We see significant value in MCX, considering (1) Its
revenue CAGR of 14% and EBITDA margin expansion strong business franchise, (2) Start of options trading
(41.0% in FY20E vs 30.7% in FY17) for FY17-20E. in Oct-17, (3) Embedded non-linearity in business, (4)
Considering the asset-light nature of the business, we Favourable regulatory environment and (5) Long-
expect RoE to expand to 11.9% in FY20E vs 9.9% in term growth prospects. We maintain our BUY rating
FY17. with a TP of Rs 1,165, implying a P/E of 35x Dec-FY19
EPS.
MCX currently trades at 43.6x FY18E and 33.7x FY19E
EPS (implying PEG 2.7x ~30% discount to EM average)
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MCX : RESULT REVIEW 3QFY18
Change In Estimates
Particulars Earlier estimates Revised estimates % change
FY18E
Revenue (Rs mn) 2,678 2,675 (0.1)
EBITDA (Rs mn) 802 753 (6.1)
EBITDA margin (%) 30.0% 28.2% (179)bps
EPS (Rs) 22.8 20.5 (10.0)
FY19E
Revenue (Rs mn) 3,167 3,109 (1.8)
EBITDA (Rs mn) 1,126 1,026 (8.9)
EBITDA margin (%) 35.6% 33.0% (257)bps
EPS (Rs) 28.1 26.6 (5.3)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research
Page | 6
MCX : RESULT REVIEW 3QFY18
Developed markets
CME Group USA 51,973 25.6 24.1 70.4 0.3 2.5 2.5 18.4 18.7 9.2 9.0
Hong Kong Exchanges Hong Kong 45,697 42.1 37.2 15.1 2.5 10.1 9.9 10.3 9.1 24.1 26.0
Intercontinental Exchange USA 43,748 21.1 19.4 13.4 1.5 2.7 2.6 15.4 14.3 12.4 13.3
Deutsche Boerse Germany 23,131 19.6 17.3 12.7 1.4 4.0 3.5 12.3 11.2 19.5 19.8
Nasdaq OMX USA 13,536 16.7 15.5 10.9 1.4 2.4 2.3 12.4 11.7 13.8 19.1
Japan Exchange Group Japan 9,975 24.1 23.3 2.7 NM 4.2 3.6 13.8 13.3 16.2 15.6
Singapore Exchange Singapore 6,127 20.5 20.5 3.7 5.5 8.7 7.0 13.8 13.8 34.6 31.9
ASX Australia 8,438 22.4 21.3 4.9 4.3 2.7 2.6 14.9 14.2 11.9 12.3
CBOE Holdings USA 14,921 29.6 27.1 15.5 1.7 5.2 4.7 20.4 19.0 15.3 15.0
Hellenic Exchanges Greece 416 35.1 23.7 16.2 1.5 2.6 2.8 15.6 11.0 8.1 11.8
NZX Ltd New Zealand 219 17.6 16.0 11.1 1.4 4.3 4.4 10.2 9.6 24.1 26.2
Developed markets average 24.9 22.3 16.0 2.2 4.5 4.2 14.3 13.3 17.2 18.2
Global average 24.1 21.7 14.7 2.5 4.4 4.1 13.9 12.9 18.3 18.3
Source: Bloomberg, HDFC sec Inst Research Note: 1-yr refers to FY18/CY17 & 2-yr FY19/CY18
Key risks
Competition from other exchanges (universal exchange)
Regulatory delays
Page | 7
MCX : RESULT REVIEW 3QFY18
Page | 8
MCX : RESULT REVIEW 3QFY18
RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Date CMP Reco Target
MCX TP
9-Jan-17 1,250 BUY 1,541
1,700 16-Jan-17 1,201 BUY 1,503
1,500
11-Apr-17 1,238 BUY 1,563
5-May-17 1,155 BUY 1,558
1,300 11-Jul-17 1,098 BUY 1,359
14-Jul-17 1,079 BUY 1,322
1,100 4-Oct-17 1,060 BUY 1,371
900
10-Jan-18 939 BUY 1,210
17-Jan-18 896 BUY 1,165
700
Nov-17
Jan-18
Feb-17
Sep-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Mar-17
NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL : Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period
Page | 10
MCX : RESULT REVIEW 3QFY18
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MCX : RESULT REVIEW 3QFY18
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Board : +91-22-6171 7330 www.hdfcsec.com
Page | 12