Reliability Analysis of a Laterally Loaded Monopile

Pile Properties
Pile type = steel pipe
Length of the pile = 21.90 m
Outer diameter = 4.00 m
Wall thickness = 0.050 m
Soil Properties
Soil type = uniform - sandy
Effective unit weight (γ) = 10000 N/m3
Angle of internal friction (φ) = 45°

Lateral load at seabed (P) = 4E6 N

Assumption
P, γ and φ are uncorrelated, normally distributed, with coefficients of variations 10%.
The upper and lower limit values have probabilities of 5% and 95% being exceeded.
Statistical properties of input parameters
Input p/m Mean (μ) COV (%) Std. Dev (σ) xmax (μ+1.65 σ) xmin (μ-1.65 σ)
P (MN) 4 10 0.4 4.66 3.34
γ (kN/m3) 10 10 1.0 11.65 8.35
φ (°) 45 10 4.5 52.425 37.575

Lateral displacement at mudline (δ)

Sl. No. P γ φ P γ φ δ (m) δ (mm)
1 + + + 4.66 11.65 52.43 0.0304 30.40
2 + + - 4.66 11.65 37.58 0.0530 53.00
3 + - + 4.66 8.35 52.43 0.0316 31.60
4 + - - 4.66 8.35 37.58 0.0555 55.50
5 - + + 3.34 11.65 52.43 0.0274 27.40
6 - + - 3.34 11.65 37.58 0.0469 46.90
7 - - + 3.34 8.35 52.43 0.0283 28.30
8 - - - 3.34 8.35 37.58 0.0489 48.90

Response surface model

A linear response surface model can be generated using MS Excel
= 96.47 + 3.6 − 0.5 − 1.46
R2 = 0.994 and adjR2 = 0.986. These values are close to 1, indicating the adequacy of the
fitted model.
Performance Function
The limiting displacement at mudline is taken as 0.12 m or 120 mm. This value, obtained
from [2] is only an indicative, optimized parameter. The performance function can now be
defined as follows:
Safe region :- δ<120
Unsafe region :- δ>120
Performance function:- ( )= − 120
Reliability index and probability of failure
The reliability index (β) and probability of failure (pf) have been determined using the
spreadsheet method used by [3] and [4], which makes use of an alternative form of the
Hasofer-Lind reliability index. This makes use of the 'Solver add-in', the optimization tool in
Microsoft Excel. The following expression is made use of, in the original variable space:

= ( − ) ( − ) { : ( )≤0
where x represents the vector of random variables, m, their mean values and C, the covariance
matrix. The values of the reliability index (β) and probability of failure (pf) are presented in
the table below. These needs to be validated with a suitable procedure such as Monte Carlo
simulation, which is time consuming.
Limiting lateral displacement β pf
120 mm 11.84 1.27e-32
80 mm 5.91 1.76e-09
40 mm 0.025 0.49

References
1. Babu, G.L.S. and Srivastava, A., (2008), Response Surface Methodology (RSM) in
the Reliability Analysis of Geotechnical Systems, Proc. of the 12th International
Conference of International Association for Computer Methods and Advances in
Geomechanics (IACMAG), Goa, India, 4147-4165
2. de VriesW. E., and van der Tempel., J. (2007), Quick Monopile Design. Proc., European
Offshore Wind Conf., Berlin, Germany
3. Low, B.K. and Tang, W.H., (1997), Efficient Reliability Evaluation Using Spreadsheet,
Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 123, 749-752
4. Phoon, K-K, and Nadim, F., (2004), Modeling Non-Gaussian Random Vectors for
FORM: State-of-the-Art Review, Proc. Of the International Workshop on Risk
Assessment in Site Characterization and Geotechnical Design, Indian Institute of
Science, Bangalore, India, 55-85