Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Graduação em Economia
2o Semestre de 2017
Ruı́do Branco (White Noise)
Yt = c + t + θt−1 ; ∼ wn(0, σ 2 ),
(Yt − µ) = t + θt−1
2.5
0.0
−2.5
Yt = 1 + εt − 0.5εt−1
2.5
0.0
−2.5
Yt = εt + 0.3εt−1
2.5
0.0
−2.5
0.25
FAC
0.00
−0.25
0.50
0.25
FACP
0.00
−0.25
1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5
lag
MA(q)
Yt = c + φYt−1 + t , ∼ wn(0, σ 2 )
(Yt − µ) = φ(Yt−1 − µ) + t
−2
Yt = 0.3Yt−1 + εt
4
−2
Yt = 0.95Yt−1 + εt
4
−2
γj = φ|j | γ0 , j ∈Z
Yt = α0 + α1 Yt−1 + · · · + αj Yt−j + ut
0.5
FAC
0.0
−0.5
1.0
0.5
FACP
0.0
−0.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
lag
Estacionariedade de um AR(1)
Afinal, qual a condição para garantir a estacionariedade fraca de
um AR(1). Fazendo substituições recursivas, temos
Yt = c + φYt−1 + t
= c + φ(c + φYt−2 + t−1 ) +
= c + φ(c + φ(c + φYt−3 + t−2 ) + t−1 ) + t
..
.
k −1
X k −1
X
j k
=c φ + φ Yt−k + φj t−j
j =0 j =0
LYt = Yt−1
L2 Y (t) = L(LYt ) = L(Yt−1 ) = Yt−2
..
.
Lj Y (t) = L(L(L . . . LYt ) = Yt−j
L(cYt ) = c(LYt )
L(Yt + Xt ) = LYt + LXt
Polinômio no Operador Lag
(1 − φ1 L − φ2 L2 − · · · − φp Lp )Yt = t
Φp (L)Yt = t
(1 − φL)−1 (1 − φL) = 1
(1 − φL)−1 = 1 + φL + φ2 L2 + φ3 L3 + . . .
1 − φ1 L − · · · − φp Lp = (1 − λ1 L) . . . (1 − λp L)
(1 − λ1 L) . . . (1 − λp L)Yt = t
Yt = (1 − λ1 L)−1 . . . (1 − λp L)−1 t
≡ (1 + ψ1 L + ψ2 L2 + . . . )t
≡ Ψ∞ (L)t
Processo ARMA(p,q)
Yt = c + φ1 Yt−1 + · · · + φp Yt−p +
t + θ1 t−1 + · · · + θq t−q ; ∼ wn(0, σ 2 ),
(1 − φ1 L − · · · − φp Lp )Yt = c + (1 + θ1 L + · · · + θq Lq )t
Φp (L)Yt = c + Θq (L)t
Estacionariedade e Invertibilidade de um ARMA(p,q)
Φp (L) = 1 − φ1 L − φ2 L2 − · · · − φp Lp
Θq (L) = 1 + θ1 L + θ2 L2 + · · · + θq Lq
Yt = µ + Ψ∞ (L)t
onde
p
c X
µ≡ ; Φ(1) = 1 − φj ; Ψ∞ (L) ≡ Φ(L)−1
p Θq (L)
Φ(1)
j =1
E(Yt ) = µ
∞
X
γj = σ 2 ψi ψi+|j | ,
i=0
onde ψ0 = 1
FAC de ARMA(p,q)