COPPE

Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra de Pós-Graduação e

Pesquisa em Engenharia

PPE

TRANSPORT DECARBONIZATION:
Programa de Planejamento
Energético

Camila Ludovique
FRAMINING THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY
 T O WA R D S S U S TA I N A B I L I T Y ?

To understand how transport can play its role in the decarbonization of Brazilian economy.
 Content

01 Introdution
Addresses the main issues and establishes the goal

02 The transport sector today

Historical development, efficiencies and related emissions

03 The future mobility

New technologies and the consumer’s behavior in mobility

04 Low carbono strategies Fundão city

A study case analyzing low carbon emission mobility strategies to
Fundão island

05 Final remarks
INTRODUTION
• Pa r i s A g r e e m e n t
• Durable and legally binding treaty against adversity and the effects of climate change

• I n te n d e d N a ti o na l l y D e te r m i n e d C o n tr i b u ti on s
(i N D C s )
• ¾ of the iNDCs mention transport and 10% of the agreements include specific transport
mitigation targets

Agenda 17 5 SDG 7 SDG 18%

2030 SDG directly indirectly emissions

Towards sustainability?
 Technological Innovation
Parallel to these major developments on the international transport agenda, a number of technological
innovations

As noted, the level of uncertainty in all

transport areas is high. The extended
automotive industry is in the early stages of a
potentially transformative evolution (ITF, 2017).

Less congestion, lower emissions, greater efficiency, lower costs, and - most compelling - saved lives.
 Consumer Behavior
Parallel to these major developments on the international transport agenda, a number of technological
innovations

How we get from point A to B is ultimately an

individual, rather than a collective, choice that
is influenced by a multitude of factors, from the
obvious (cost, convenience) to the obscure
(perceived prestige, peer pressure) (PANKRATZ
et. al, 2017).

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), which are more and more being used to generate climate change
mitigation scenarios, are increasingly being designed to be more ‘realistic’ by incorporating features
observed in the real world.
 SLOVAKIA
LOV

Section 2
TRANSPORT SECTOR TODAY

The main objective of this section is to

present the transport characteristics
C O L OMB IA

nowadays
Cities are locations having a high level of accumulation and
concentration of economic activities and are complex spatial structures
that are supported by transport systems
The most important transport problems
Some problems are ancient, like congestion that plagued cities such as Rome.

 traffic congestion and parking difficulties;

 longer commuting; public transport inadequacy;
 difficulties for non-motorized transport;
 loss of public space;
 high maintenance costs;
 environmental impacts and energy consumption;
 accidents and safety;
 land consumption;
 freight distribution.
 From Model T to the peak level of car
Many dimensions to the urban transport challenge are linked with the dominance of the automobile
Society has been increasing its automotive dependence

Figure 1: Number of cars in the word.

Source: GlobalTrees, 2011.
 The transport sector energy consumption
The transport sector is the second in energy consumption, just behind the industrial sector

The International Energy Outlook 2016

reference case, transportation sector
energy consumption increases at an
annual average rate of 1.4%, from 104
quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in
2012 to 155 quadrillion Btu in 2040. In 20
years, 50% more service.

Figure 2: World energy consumption by sector in 20120.

Source:EIA, 2012.
Light-duty vehicles are the major responsible by
the energy consumption

The emissions from

transport sector are
increasing fast as well
and represents, in
2015, roughly 18% of
the total
anthropogenic CO2
emissions
(ITF, 2017).

Figura 3: Annual global transportation energy consumption by mode, 2012. Quadrillion Btu.
Source: EIA, 2012.
 From well to wheel
The maximum fossil fuel efficiency is around 35% for Otto and 50% for Diesel engine
The actual efficiency is around 20-40% depending on fuel and technology

In addition, the economic costs of atmospheric pollution from transport sector, in OCDE countries, is
estimate in about US$ 1 trillion per year, measured in terms of lives lose and healthy
(OCDE, 2014).
 Peak level of car mobility is unfolding
at least in developed countries

Higher fossil fuel prices, new clear technologies,

congestion and the general aging of the population are
all countervailing forces to the traditional internal
combustion engine car dependency.

The implications of this shift are potentially profound, affecting not only the traditional automotive industry but
also insurers, lenders, technology companies, telecom providers, energy suppliers, and governments at all levels
(CORWIN et al., 2016).
 Section 3
SLOVAKIA
LOV

The future mobility

The main objective of this section is to present the fast-

moving trends in mobility, focusing on a technological
C O L OMB IA

approach in a first moment and afterward in the new

emerging consumer’s behavior
 Effective mobility
Local conditions - such as population density, wealth, the state of road and public-transit infrastructure, pollution and
congestion levels, and local governance capabilities - will determine what changes occur, and how quickly.

Today, a small number of cities, such as Amsterdam,

Singapore, and Stockholm, are singled out as having
effective mobility
 Exponential trends in mobility
On an individual basis, each of these trends will have a major impact on specific aspects of the mobility sector. More significant,
however, is their combined impact and potential to reinforce and magnify one another, which in turn affects the broader mobility
system (MCKENSEY&COMPANY, 2016).

EV Shared AD IoT
 Global Electric Vehicle (EV)
Fueled by generous purchase subsidies, falling battery costs, fuel economy regulations, growing commitments
from car companies, and rising interest from consumers

Figure 4: Evolution of global electric car stock, 2010-2016.

Source: IEA, 2017.
 Battery energy density and costs
Fell 65 % over the period 2010–15 – from $1,000/kWh to $350/kWh – and continues to drop
They are now forecast to drop below $100/kWh in the next decade

Figura 5: Battery energy density and costs.

Source: IEA, 2017.
Electrical vehicle sales
 Shared mobility
highlights a few examples of shared business models, from car sharing to more specialized applications that
allow drivers to monetize their own cars when idle.

Figura 7: Shared business model.

Source: Mckensey&Company, 2016.
 Autonomous driving technology
The current state of technology along with expected improvements and the already announced plans of several large
OEMs and others, make it likely that full self-driving vehicles – will be available by the mid-2020s

As part of the effort to achieve full

autonomy, various start-ups are
working on components ranging
from:

 imaging and sensing hardware to

communication modules for
wireless connectivity
 Mapping
 driving data storage
 rental and insurance services
optimized for a world with
autonomous cars.

Figura 8: Autonomus vehicles projections.

Source: Mckensey&Company, 2016.
 Internet of Things (IoT)
is defined by three characteristics: the presence of sensors, connectivity to networks,
and the ability to rapidly compute incoming data.

IoT applications are quickly

spreading into mobility.
Meanwhile, infrastructure
connectivity and other
“hardware” elements enable
further smoothing of traffic
flows (MCKENSEY&COMPANY,
2016).
IoT applications for Smart City
 Metropolitan areas favor to lower
emission vehicles
In addition to air quality, urban planners are increasingly seeking to focus on liveability
and sustainability
Intermittent Distributed Generation
Driven by behavior
 Decision in mobility
is ultimately an individual, rather than a collective, choice that is influenced by a multitude
of factors, from the obvious (cost, convenience) to the obscure (perceived prestige, peer
pressure) (PANKRATZ et. al, 2017).

FOR decades, psychologists and

economists have documented the
ways in which human decision making
departs from classic assumptions of
rational, cost-benefit Calculation.

In countless studies, in the lab and in

real-life situations, we have been
shown to exhibit a reliable set of
biases that shape the choices we
make—including choices about how
we move from point A to point B.
 Urbanization and population growth
will increase the average density of metropolitan areas by at least 30 percent between 2015 and 2030

As a consequence, in developing dense metropolitan areas

demand for mobility may nearly double if passenger miles
travelled per person remain stable and car ownership follows its
historical relationship with GDP growth
Capture citizens’ changing transit behavior and
social norms as well to make better decisions
As the dynamics of human, digital and physical infrastructure are transforming, mobility behavior
is itself changing too (EY,2016).

Figura 9: Residents’ mobility behavior is changing in major cities: the case of London.
Source: EY, 2016
 In a world of hyper-connectivity
The confluence of human, digital and physical factors means individuals are looking for an
interactive experience – not just an integrated one – to explore their journey options.
Transportation is becoming a conversation, not an integrated one

Transportation is becoming a
conversation, not a transaction,
for the user, and connecting with
citizens on this level could be
critical for amplifying socially
desirable behaviors (EY,2016).
 The survey of millennials highlights
many respondents use multiple transportation options to reach a destination, and describe this as
an increasing trend

If you’re reading this, there’s a 1 in 3

chance you’re a Milennial –someone
according to research, who is between
the ages of 18 and 29, socially liberal,
tech savvy, educated, and excited for
the future. Sound like you? That’s not
surprising: there are 50 million
millennials in the US today, and we
pretty much rule.
Smart technologies and access to digital information
are supporting these attitudes, rather than causes of
the shift. The number of vehicle miles travelled by
16-to-34-year old adults in the US was already
trending down before smartphone technology took
off. (EY,2016).
 The average future ride
To best promote mobility, transport policy planning needs to make these
trends in attitudes, and the associated preferences and behaviors of the
future user, central to design.

Current trends suggest the average future ride will be:

 Interconnected
 expects seamless integration of transport options
 has a flexible concept of “workplace” and “peak hour”
 sees cycling and walking as viable options
 takes an individualistic view of mobility.
 SLOVAKIA
LOV

Section 4
Low carbon emission strategies to Fundão Island

In this section is explored a study case of

C O L OMB IA

low carbon emission strategies to Fundão

Island.
 Mobility in Fundão
University cities represent a reliable sample of a real city. The entire campus is located there, and it is
comprised by institutes, schools, colleges, and support bodies.

Ilha do Fundão in the city of Rio de Janeiro, has an

estimated population of:
 60,000 people
 area of 5.2 million square meters
 Every day sees over 100,000 people and 25,000
vehicles circulating

As the name suggests the Island is far from the

main residential areas of Rio de Janeiro. Hence, one
of the major sustainability challenges faced at UFRJ
city is related to mobility, mainly caused by Ilha do
Fundão access difficulties.
The monthly energy consumption and CO2 emissions
Based on a O/D study (D’Agosto et al., 2014). Trips originating and/or destined to the boroughs Botafogo,
Barra da Tijuca, Tijuca/Vila Isabel and to the Niterói/São Gonçalo area accounted for 59% of the monthly
CO2 emissions.

2.2 MkgCO2/month

Figura 10: CO2 emissions per groups and per modes.

Source: Khan Riberio et al., 2017
 Trends analyzed
The conventional vehicle (cars, light commercial vehicles and busses) is one of the most used means of
transportation in the access to UFRJ’s city due to the lack of low carbon technology alternatives.
Electric vehicles are considered a more sustainable alternative

Figure 11: Nissan Leaf vs. Nissan Sentra energy consumption comparison, with air conditioning on and off.
Source: Khan Riberio et al., 2017.
 CO2 emissions during the life
a conventional vehicle are higher than on an electric vehicle

 CO2eq. emissions resulting

from the production and
recycling of the vehicle-type,
the production of gasoline and
ethanol, and from the use of
gasohol (27% Anhydrous
Ethanol + 73% gasoline) for the
internal combustion vehicle.

 CO2eq. emissions identified for

the electric vehicle resulted
from the production and
recycling of the vehicle-type,
power generation, and from the
production and recycling of the
battery.
Figure 12: Conventional and electric vehicles CO2 eq/pass.Km emissions.
Source: Khan Riberio et al., 2017.
 Car-sharing
The transport sector has great potential for reducing CO2 emissions through changes in behavior and in
the choice of alternative modes.

According to Shaheen et al.

(2015), studies carried out back
the numerous environmental
and social benefits related to
shared mobility, including cost
reduction, convenience,
improved accessibility
(encourages multimodality and
expands the scope of public
transport).

Figure 13: Carsharing regime impacts in Europe and the North America.
Source: Khan Riberio et al., 2017.
 Scenarios and Results
One most conservative in relation to the pace of technology penetration and other more optimist about
the trends evolution.

Scenario 1: is based on the study carried

out by the National Bank for Economic and
Social Development (BNDES).

Scenario 2: this is a revolutionary scenario

(upheaval), where pursuant to a massive
economic globalization Brazil would follow the
world’s electro-mobility trend (LPAA, 2015;
UNFCCC, 2015).
 Scenarios 1

Figure 14: Projections for scenario one, the conservative view.

Source: Khan Riberio et al., 2017.
 Scenarios 2

Figure 15: Projections for scenario one, the conservative view.

Source: Khan Riberio et al., 2017.
 Scenarios have great potential for the use of
renewable energy
however, they will be reliant on different energy sources

 Scenario 1 estimates reliance on ethanol,

which is a renewable source, and the use of
combustion engine technology.

 Scenarios 2 estimates a greater reliance on and

increased use of electricity, which is overall a
renewable and non-polluting source of energy
in Brazil.

Figure 16: Fuel and electricity demand comparison

Source: Khan Riberio et al., 2017.
Energy and environmental point of view
the outcomes have identified the upheaval scenario as the most promising

 However, from a political point

of view it might be the most
challenging of the four, as it will
not only require changes in the
energy distribution
infrastructure, but also the
creation of a new energy market
model.

 Another barrier is related to

what will happen to petroleum
products such as gasoline and
alcohol fuel that are no longer
needed due to the use of
electricity.
The latest Climate Convention increased the
undersigning of carbon emission reduction
goals

Such global efforts aligned with the globalization of the

automotive industry will probably not allow much
freedom of choice to particular countries, such as
Brazil, thus making the whole world follow in the same
path towards electric energy.
 Brazil
Rio de Janeiro
Creating one future

Smart
kind
and
Important

for future
generations