MEMORANDUM

To: Bob Gullinger

Management Department
Marshall Flight Space Center
Huntsville Alabama
678-345-7861

From: Marcus Wagner

Engineering Department
Morton Thiokol Incorporated
Seattle, Washington
509-665-9221

RE: Delay Challenger Shuttle Launch Due to Potential O-Ring Failure

Date: December 16th, 1985

Background:
The Challenger Shuttle is scheduled to launch in one month (January
28th, 1986). According to previous data, the O-rings failed when the
shuttle was launched at temperatures that were below 63 F. o

Data:
The attached chart (see Figure 1) shows that at 63 F there is no O-
o

ring damage. When the temperature decreases, the O-rings begin to damage
and the shuttle launch ends in catastrophe. An example of this is a
previous shuttle launch and when the temperature was at 53 F, the damage
o

index of the O-rings was 11 out of 12. The shuttle that was launched at
53 F had the most O-ring erosion out of all other flights and the back up
o

rings got heated. When the temperature is above 63 F there is a less chance
0

of damage but damage can occur from outside sources as well (Tufte, 22).
When the O-rings are damaged the rocket could potentially explode.
The predicted temperature for the Challenger Shuttle launch is going to
be 26 - 29 F, which means the shuttle launch could fail due to failure of
0

the O - rings. At these predicted temperatures, the launch could result in

catastrophe and the loss of human life (Tufte, 22).

Recommended Action:
The MTI engineers strongly suggest to delay the launch. The launch
will fail if it is launched at this predicted temperature range of 26 - 29
F. The MTI engineers suggest to delay the launch until the temperatures
0

are at least above 63 F for a successful launch.

o
Key: = Challenger Shuttle launch expected temperatures
= Previous test launch data

Notes about “Damage Index”: The O-ring failure is measured in a damage

index notation when looking at the graph provided, and each damage index
occurred at a certain temperature in fahrenheit. In Tufte’s article he
states that the damage index is “for each launch, the score on the data
index is, the severity-weighted total number of incidents of O-ring,
heating, and blow-by” (Tufte, 22).

Works Cited

Tufte, Edward R. Visual and Statistical Thinking: Displays of Evidence for Making Decisions.
Graphics Press, 2016.