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John M. Ryan
The broad expansion of o i l markets t h a t came about after 1859 w a s made possible
by many f a c t o r s including: (1)high and r i s i n g p r i c e s f o r animal and vegetable
o i l s , ( 2 ) a r a d i c a l l y improved technique of e x p l o r a t i o n and production, and ( 3 )
improved techniques of u t i l i z a t i o n . This experience i l l u s t r a t e s t h e f a c t t h a t t h e
u t i l i z a t i o n of petroleum i s the r e s u l t a n t of a w i d e v a r i e t y of f o r c e s which
u l t i m a t e l y make themselves f e l t i n t h e market p l a c e . The equilibrium achieved,
however, i s q u i t e f r a g i l e and changes i n the underlying f o r c e s l e a d t o continued
and sometimes rapid s h i f t s i n u t i l i z a t i o n p a t t e r n s . Hence, i n d i s c u s s i n g u t i l i z a -
tion, it i s not s u f f i c i e n t t o consider e x i s t i n g o r p o t e n t i a l technology of o i l con-
sumption alone. It i s a l s o necessary t o i n d i c a t e t h e e f f e c t s of p o t e n t i a l changes
i n supply and of new competitive f o r c e s . Any p r o j e c t i o n o f u t i l i z a t i o n must con-
t a i n , a t l e a s t i m p l i c i t l y , s m e assumptions about f u t u r e supply and competing
technology as these f a c t o r s can have important consequences today. Thus a n a n t i c -
ipated shortage of a p a r t i c u l a r form of energy some y e a r s i n t h e f u t u r e l e a d s con-
sumers t o begin searching f o r ways t o economize i n t h e use of the resource o r t o
convert t o a l t e r n a t e sources today. Producers begin t o look f o r new supplies o r
t o improve methods of producing known d e p o s i t s . Producers of competing f u e l s
search f o r ways t o s u b s t i t u t e t h e i r products f o r t h e one i n s h o r t supply. All of
these a c t i v i t i e s tend t o d e l a y o r t o prevent a n a c t u a l s c a r c i t y .
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Transportation
next twenty years. Most of t h e devices which might compete with t h e gasoline-
powered p i s t o n engine are hydrocarbon engines themselves. Among t h e s e are t h e gas
turbine; t h e light-weight, high-speed d i e s e l engine; t h e s t r a t i f i e d charge engine;
t h e f ree-piston engine; t h e S t i r l i n g engine; and t h e NSU rotary combustion engine.
Based on p r e s e n t information, none of t h e s e engines p r e s e n t s a major t h r e a t t o t h e
gasoline p i s t o n engine, although highway d i e s e l use i s growing. I n t h e longer run,
t h e r e may be some s h i f t toward t h e s t r a t i f i e d charge and t h e g a s t u r b i n e engine.
None of these changes, however, would s e r i o u s l y affect t h e t o t a l demand f o r hydm-
carbons although they might n e c e s s i t a t e a s h i f t away from gasoline toward middle
d i s t i l l a t e s i n t h e r e f i n i n g process.
T o t a l Petroleum Demand
ADEQUACY OF SUPPLY
229
CONCLUSIONS
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230
LI!l!Em CITED
Ann Arbor (Mich.) News, May 1920. Quoted by Kenneth K. Landes, " F a n t a s t i c
Coal and O i l Reserve Figures, 'I Paper presented t o Michigan Academy of
Science, Arts, and L e t t e r s , March 23, 1962. c
Barnett, Harold J. and Morse, Chandler, " S c a r c i t y and Growth," p. 192, The
Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 1963.
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