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A 2x2 contingency table for binary forecast.

Contingency Table for Threshold Forecasts

Observed
Marginal Total
Yes No

Yes a b a+b
Forecast

(Hits) (False alarm)


No c d c+d
(Miss) (Correct Negatives)
Marginal a+c b+d a + b + c+ d = n
Total

Verification measures for categorical forecasts.

Measures Description Range Optimal


value
Probability of Detection (POD) or 𝑎 [0,1] 1
Hit Rate 𝑎+𝑐
Proportion Correct (PC) 𝑎+𝑑 [0,1] 1
𝑛
False Alarm Ratio (FAR) 𝑏 [0,1] 0
𝑎+𝑏
False Alarm Rate (F) or Probability 𝑏 [0,1] 0
of False Detection (POFD) 𝑏+𝑑
Threat Score (TS) or Critical Success 𝑎 [0,1] 1
Index 𝑎+𝑏+𝑐
Bias (B) 𝑎+𝑏 [0 , +∞] 1
𝑎+𝑐

The measures of categorical verification namely POD, FAR, Bias and CSI can be collectively
visualized in a performance diagram by establishing a mathematical relationship between them
(Roebber, 2009).

𝑆𝑢𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 (𝑆𝑅) = 1 − 𝐹𝐴𝑅


1
𝐶𝑆𝐼 =
1 1
𝑆𝑅 + 𝑃𝑂𝐷 − 1
𝑃𝑂𝐷
𝐵𝑖𝑎𝑠 =
𝑆𝑅
Figure. Performance diagram for daily cumulative rainfall forecast. (Apart from success ratio and
POD from x and y axis respectively, dashed line indicates bias and solid contour indicates CSI)

References
Roebber, P. J. (2009). Visualizing multiple measures of forecast quality. Weather and
Forecasting, 24(2), 601-608.