Democratisation reduces the prospects of large-scale political violence.

Discuss

First, I will write about there exists literature that claims that democratisation leads to peace

• Liberal view-democracy promotes development and peace.

• Evidence of the previous point is that – democracies don’t usually go to war with one
another
• Why? Because “social conflicts that might become violent are resolved through
voting, negotiation, compromise and mediation”.
• Hegre et al (American Political Science Review, 2001, No.1) argue that there is a
“democratic civil peace”.
• 2002 Human Development Report puts it: “Recent evidence supports
the…argument…that established democracies are unlikely to experience civil war”
(p.85).
• Why are democracies said to promote peace: 1) because of shared norms and values
2) because they trade with each other and don’t threaten trade 3) because they have
internal and anti-bellicose checks and balances

Then I will question how robust is the empirical record on democracy and democratisation
• Fearon and Laitin use Przeworski et al democracy measures; Polity IV measure; and Freedom
House indicator of civil liberties. Civil war onsets are no less frequent in democracies after
controlling for income – positive and statistically insignificant coefficient for Democracy
(lagged Polity IV measure).
• Sambanis on different coding rules followed in civil war datasets also claims that the
results “point to a non-significant relationship” between democracy and conflict.
• quantitative evidence of a link between democratisation, or at least the intermediate
polities – mixes of autocracy and democracy--called ‘anocracies’ – and conflict

How robust is the empirical record that democracy and democratisation reduces prospects of
political violence?
• Evidence: Property rights most insecure in middle-income economies undergoing
democratic transitions (Clague et al, 1997).
• Demoracratising states among LDC’s most likely to experience internal or
international war (Synder) Why?
• Can re-enforce ethno-nationalist divisions
•