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University of Sydney School of Economics ECMT 1020

Tutorial #3 – Week 4 Kadir Atalay

Chapters 5-7

SOLUTIONS
Q1
For a random variable T that is T (30) distributed, 1.3 1.3 0.80. Using this
result, derive an 80% confidence interval for the population mean given a random sample
with 31, 40 and /√ 10.

1.3 1.3 0.80


/√

1.3 1.3 0.80


10
13 13 0.80 → 53 27 0.8
→ 27 53 0.8

Q2– In this question, write how we calculate the CI


̅∓ ,.

Suppose a 95% confidence interval for is (20, 30). Do you expect a wider, narrower,
or similar confidence interval in the following situations?
a) A 99% confidence interval is constructed.
A higher confidence level – wider confidence interval
b) The sample size is much larger.

Sample size affects standard error (see standard error definition)– large n , smaller se,
and as a result, narrower CI

c) The sample mean is much larger


Sample mean does not affect the CI
d) The standard deviation is much larger
If sd increases, se increases which causes a wider confidence interval

Q3 – In this question, show how to use the t-table


Suppose a random sample of 25 economists forecast economic growth for the next year. The
range of forecasts is from growth of -2.0 percent to growth of 3.5 percent with average 1.2
percent and with standard deviation of 2.0 percent.
a) Give a 95 percent confidence interval for the population mean forecast.
2
̅ 1.2, 2 , 25; 0.4
√25
,. 2.064 (Use t-table to find)

Upper bound= ̅ ,. 1.20 0.4 ∗ 2.064 2.025


Lower bound= ̅ ,. 1.20 0.4 ∗ 2.064 0.374

b) Test at significance level 0.05 the claim that growth will be zero next year. State the
null and alternative hypotheses and your conclusion.
: 0
: 0
1.2/0.4 3 , , . 2.06

c) Test at significance level 0.05 the claim that the next year will be a recessionary year,
i.e. that growth will be negative. State the null and alternative hypotheses and your
conclusion.
: 0
: 0
1.2/0.4 3 , , . 1.7109

;
 Rejection rule is reject if since 3 >-1.7109, we fail to
reject the null.

Q4
The summary statistics for usual hours worked per week (variable hours) for a simple random
sample of women aged 30 years are the following
Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev Min Max
hours 90 32.81 19.73 0 90

a) Give a 95% confidence interval for population mean usual hours worked.
. .
First- step , we need to find standard error: 2.08
√ .

Then we need to find the critical value for P[T_89>c]=0.025


. display invttail(89, 0.025)
1.9869787
Now upper and lower bound: 32.81+/-2.08*1.987 =32.81 +/- 4.132 =[36.94, 28.67]
b) The claim is made that the population mean usual hours worked is 35 hours. Test this
claim at significance level 0.01. State the null and alternative hypotheses and your
conclusion.
: 35
: 35
t-critical value
display invttail(89, 0.005)
2.6322042

.
1.05 , ,. 2.6322
.

;
.

c) The claim is made that the population mean usual hours worked is less than 35 hours.
Test this claim at significance level 0.10. State the null and alternative hypotheses and
your conclusion.
: 35
: 35
.
1.05 ,. 1.2911362
.

 Rejection rule is reject if since >-


1.29, we fail to reject the null.
Q5
STATA gives the following output:

One-sample t test
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Variable | Obs Mean Std. Err. Std. Dev. [95% Conf. Interval]
---------+--------------------------------------------------------------------
x | 90 197.9761 1.089684 10.33765 195.8109 200.1412
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
mean = mean(x) t = 1.8134
Ho: mean = 196 degrees of freedom = 89

Ha: mean < 196 Ha: mean != 196 Ha: mean > 196
Pr(T < t) = 0.9634 Pr(|T| > |t|) = 0.0731 Pr(T > t) = 0.0366

a) Perform a test of whether or not 196 at significance level 0.05.


Pr(|T| > |t|) = 0.0731 - we fail to reject the null at
5%.

b) The claim is made that the population mean exceeds 196. Perform an appropriate test
at significance level 0.05. Clearly state the null and alternative hypot. and indicate
each steps you undertake.

: 196
: 196

Pr(T > t) = 0.0366 - we reject the null at 5% - and find


evidence that population mean exceeds 196.

c) The claim is made that the population mean is lower than 196. Perform an appropriate
test at significance level 0.05. Clearly state the null and alternative hypot. and
indicate each steps you undertake

: 196
: 196

Pr(T < t) = 0.9634 - we fail to reject the null at 5% -

d) Calculate a 90% confidence interval for .


(Explain students why – we have look at the following )
. display invttail(89, 0.05)
1.6621553
Upper Bound= 197.9761 +1.089684x1.6621553 = 199.7873
Lower Bound= 197.9761 -1.089684x1.6621553 = 196.1648

a) Perform a two-sided test of whether or not 150. (at 10%)


: 150
: 150
197 150 /1.09 43.11 , , .
1.6621553
;

Q6
Q7