Morning Review - 091510

Nicholas Colas (Chief Market Strategist): 212 448 6095 or ncolas@convergex.
com
Christine Clark: 212 448 6085 or cclark@convergex.com
Beth Reed: 212 448 6096 or breed@convergex.com
Tuesday stocks pared earlier gains ahead of the close, with the tech sector remaining strong while Morning Markets Briefing
financials declined (S&P 500 -0.1%, Dow –0.2%, Nasdaq +0.2%). Retail sales topped expectations for
August, gaining 0.4% versus the consensus estimate of 0.3%. Excluding autos, retail sales were up
Market Commentary: September 15th, 2010
0.6%, following a modest 0.2% rise in July and a 0.1% downtick in June. In terms of other economic
data, business inventories bounced 1.0% in July for a second month of significant increases, while the A snapshot of the markets through the
National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said small business optimism improved slightly lens of ConvergEx.
last month but still remained firmly in recession territory. The Empire State manufacturing survey and
industrial production are on tap for Wednesday.
The Next 500 Points on the Dow – Up or Down, The Same Calculus
Summary: With almost three quarters of the year in the books, it is surprising to find that one stock – CAT – represents the entire gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
for 2010 to-date. The other 29 names in the index essentially cancel each other out, and CAT’s 128 point contribution to the Dow accounts for all (plus a little more) of the
98 points of gain in the year. A little more analysis of what names matter most in the Dow – 10 comprise over half the weighting of the index – shows that they are
leveraged to global spending trends, both industrial and consumer. At the other end of the spectrum, the names with the smallest weightings in the Dow are only 15% of
the index. Names like Microsoft, Cisco, Bank of America, and Intel might be large companies, but as far as Dow impact go, they are tiny. So Dow 9,000 or 12,000 all
transit through the same 10 names. And yes, it does seem to come down to a macro call on the global economy.
With the market wandering around like a golden retriever puppy on a leash for the first time, I thought it would be instructive to decompose the Dow Jones
Industrial Average and see how we got here. “Here,” of course, is not very far from “there,” if we are talking about year-to-date performance. The Dow is up 98
points from its December 31, 2009 close, or less than one percent. But a look at the components of the Dow and what effect they have had on the index’s performance
thus far in 2010 can be a useful way to think about where the next 100, 200, or even 500/1000 points (up or down) will originate.
Some observations on the year-to-date results first:
• It’s all about CAT. Even though other stocks in the Dow have done well (McDonald’s, Dupont, Boeing, Kraft, Disney, GE, Home Depot, Chevron, Travelers, and 3M
are all up on the year), they all just net out the effects of the laggard stocks in the index. CAT has a large weighting (just over 5%) and a strong YTD performance
(up 24%), so its contribution to the index is just over 120 points for the year. That’s the largest contribution of any of the Dow 30 stocks, and basically all that
stands between the index and a negative return for 2010.
Market Commentary – Pages 1-5, Equities/Conferences & Earnings – Page 6, Fixed Income – Page 7, Options – Page 8, Exchange-Traded Funds/Indexes – Page 9, Social
Media & Internet Blogs Top Stories – Page 10
11
Nicholas Colas (Chief Market Strategist): 212 448 6095 or ncolas@convergex.com
• Death by 1,000 cuts (OK, really just 10, but ouch!). The Dow is an oddly constructed index, but that’s only because it is so old. Back when Charles Dow first
had the idea to quantify the market’s performance with a basket of stocks, he simply took 30 names and added them up to one index, which we now know as
the DJIA. That meant that stocks with high prices had greater influence on the index than low priced stocks. And so it is to this day, even though other indices
now generally use market cap weightings.
For the year to date, the 10 stocks with the smallest weightings have been a drag of 118 points on the Dow. Small price doesn’t mean small company –
we’re talking about names like Microsoft, Cisco, Pfizer, GE, Bank of America, Home Depot, Intel, AT&T, Alcoa, and Verizon. Only two – HD and GE – are even up on
the year. The rest are down anywhere from one to 19 percent.
The 10 stocks with the largest weightings (and worth half the index) have added 188 points to the Dow. CAT, as we mentioned, is worth 128 points, MCD
has added 98 points, and Boeing has helped the Dow tack on 68 points.
But think of it this way: if those stocks at the bottom of the Dow weightings had just been flat on the year, the Dow would be up 2%, instead of 1%.
Not a big difference, granted, but every point counts in a low volatility market.
• Pay to Play. Those solid performing names with big weighting in the index now carry earnings multiples that are meaningfully higher than the “small fry” at the
bottom of the list. The top ten equities in terms of weighting trade for 12.3x next year’s analysts’ expectations, versus 10.8x for the bottom 10 names in terms of
index weighting. We’ll leave aside for a moment whether you believe the earnings estimates upon which these multiples are based; they all come from the
same group of sell side analysts, so any error is (at least) a consistent one.
The easiest path to thinking about where the next 100 to 1,000 points on the Dow might be is to focus on the top 10 names (half the index by weight, after all)
and the bottom ten names (the troublesome ten, you might call them).
• Bullish or bearish, you have to have a distinct point of view global spending both at the consumer and industrial level. Yes, you might say “duh…, that’s
pretty obvious.” But look at the top ten names in the Dow again: IBM, MMM, CVX, MCD, CAT, UTX, BA, XOM, PG, and JNJ. That’s half the Dow Jones Industrial
Average, and even the most bearish reader will admit that these are not, for the most part, deeply troubled assets. Some have yields on their bonds that rival
what sovereign issuers pay. Most are #1 or #2 in their industries. And for the bullish reader, recall that these companies are simply too big to buck the tide of
another global economic slowdown. So you “dance with who you brung” – the rising/falling tide is going to do its thing.
• The bottom of the list, even though it is only 15% of the index, has proven it can be a spoiler in the low volatility market (as we noted above). But think
of this: if Verizon, Home Depot, AT&T, Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, Pfizer, GE, Bank of America, and Alcoa all simultaneously declared bankruptcy, but no other Dow
company were effect, the index would open the next day at 8860. The index spent the better part of a year below that level, from October 2008 to August 2009.
To summarize, a call on the market really does seem to boil down to a hold-your-nose-and-jump-in wager on the global economy. At least as far as the 30
companies of the Dow, and its old-school weighting system goes, just 10 names really matter. And those 10 names are “cheap” on current estimates, unless – of course –
those expectations bake in too much optimism. In which case they are dreadfully expensive.
2
Dow Component Weightings

10.0%
9.3%
9.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.1%
6.0% 5.7%
5.4%
5.2%
4.9%
5.0% 4.6%
4.4%4.3%4.3%
4.2%
4.0% 3.8% 3.6%
3.1% 3.0%3.0%
3.0% 2.8%
2.6% 2.5%
2.2% 2.2% 2.2%
2.0%
1.8%
2.0% 1.5%
1.3% 1.2%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
1.0%
0.0%
3
Dow Components: Performance Since 12/31/09 Dow Components: 2010 Expected P/E Ratio
30.0% 25.0
23.4
25.4%
23.7%
19.8
20.0% 17.6% 20.0
14.2%
13.0%
16.6 16.4 16.4
16.2
15.7 15.4
15.2
10.0% 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.3
15.0 14.1 13.9
5.5% 5.3%
13.1 12.9
2.9% 2.4% 12.4 12.2
1.5% 0.9% 11.9
11.3 11.3
-1.5%-2.0% 10.9 10.6
-1.2% 10.5
0.0% -2.5%-2.7%-3.0% 9.6
-0.2%
-1.0%
10.0 9.1
8.7 8.4
-1.4%
7.7
-6.7%
-10.0% -7.5%-7.7%
-9.0%-9.2%
-11.3%
-11.3% 5.0
-20.0%
-19.1%
0.0
-25.8%
-30.0%
-29.4%
Dow Components: 2011 Expected P/E Ratio Dow Components: Contribution to Dow's Change Since 12/31/09
128.2
16.0 15.4
15.1 125.0
14.2 14.1
14.0
14.0 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.4
13.1 13.0 12.9 98.0
12.5
12.0 12.0
81.2
12.0 11.3 11.3 11.2
10.8
10.4 75.0 68.2
9.8 9.6
10.0 9.5 9.4
8.9 8.9 8.8
8.1 7.9
8.0 7.5
30.1
25.0
14.3 14.2
6.0 6.4 6.4 5.9 5.5
-3.2 -4.1 -5.3 -6.0 -9.6 -9.8
4.0 -0.9 -2.9
-11.7 -12.5 -12.9

-25.0 -17.2 -18.0
2.0 -25.5 -26.2
-30.1
-35.9
0.0
-51.5
-75.0
-73.8
4
DOW COMPONENTS: CONTRIBUTION TO OVERALL DOW YTD PERFORMANCE

Dow on 12/31/09: 10,428.05
Dow on 9/14/10: 10,526.49
Difference: 98.44
Component Info Earnings P/E Ratio
Component Weighting Perf Since 12/31/09 Contribution to Dow Price 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
IBM 9.30% -2.7% -26.18 128.85 8.93 10.01 11.40 12.36 14.43 12.87 11.30 10.42
MMM 6.09% 0.9% 5.91 84.63 5.17 4.69 5.80 6.33 16.37 18.04 14.59 13.37
CVX 5.69% 2.4% 14.30 79.51 11.36 4.84 9.41 9.86 7.00 16.43 8.45 8.06
MCD 5.35% 17.6% 98.02 73.94 3.67 3.98 4.52 4.89 20.15 18.58 16.36 15.12
CAT 5.18% 23.7% 128.18 71.83 5.66 2.18 3.62 5.08 12.69 32.95 19.84 14.14
UTX 4.94% -2.5% -12.88 68.72 4.90 4.12 4.71 5.31 14.02 16.68 14.59 12.94
BA 4.61% 14.2% 68.17 62.76 3.69 1.87 3.87 4.82 17.01 33.56 16.22 13.02
XOM 4.38% -11.3% -51.48 61.01 8.47 4.01 5.80 6.48 7.20 15.21 10.52 9.42
PG 4.34% -1.2% -5.34 60.64 4.26 4.11 3.95 4.33 14.23 14.75 15.35 14.00
JNJ 4.33% -6.7% -30.12 60.58 4.55 4.63 4.70 5.03 13.31 13.08 12.89 12.04
Total: 188.58 Average: 19.22 14.01 12.25
KO 4.16% -0.2% -0.91 57.59 3.15 3.06 3.47 3.74 18.28 18.82 16.60 15.40
WMT 3.75% -3.0% -11.73 52.66 3.42 3.66 4.01 4.40 15.40 14.39 13.13 11.97
TRV 3.62% 1.5% 5.55 51.02 5.27 6.32 5.60 5.81 9.68 8.07 9.11 8.78
DD 3.07% 25.4% 81.16 42.67 2.78 2.03 3.03 3.25 15.35 21.02 14.08 13.13
AXP 2.96% -1.0% -3.18 40.38 2.42 1.54 3.32 3.58 16.69 26.22 12.16 11.28
JPM 2.95% -2.0% -6.00 40.72 1.37 2.24 3.61 4.59 29.72 18.18 11.28 8.87
HPQ 2.75% -25.8% -73.84 39.29 3.62 3.85 4.51 4.99 10.85 10.21 8.71 7.87
MRK 2.60% -1.5% -4.09 36.52 3.42 3.25 3.36 3.80 10.68 11.24 10.87 9.61
DIS 2.46% 5.5% 14.21 34.05 2.27 1.82 2.08 2.39 15.00 18.71 16.37 14.25
KFT 2.22% 13.0% 30.12 31.05 1.88 2.03 2.04 2.32 16.52 15.30 15.22 13.38
Total: 31.28 Average: 16.21 12.75 11.45
VZ 2.22% -7.5% -17.25 30.91 2.54 2.40 2.22 2.29 12.17 12.88 13.92 13.50
HD 2.15% 2.9% 6.43 29.97 1.78 1.66 1.91 2.21 16.84 18.05 15.69 13.56
T 2.00% -1.4% -2.92 27.93 2.81 2.12 2.34 2.50 9.94 13.17 11.94 11.17
MSFT 1.80% -19.1% -35.93 25.03 1.70 2.10 2.36 2.63 14.72 11.92 10.61 9.52
CSCO 1.53% -11.3% -18.00 21.45 1.35 1.61 1.73 1.98 15.89 13.32 12.40 10.83
INTC 1.33% -9.0% -12.45 18.74 0.92 0.77 1.95 1.92 20.37 24.34 9.61 9.76
PFE 1.22% -7.7% -9.83 17.08 2.42 2.02 2.21 2.27 7.06 8.46 7.73 7.52
GE 1.17% 5.3% 6.44 16.16 1.78 1.03 1.11 1.29 9.08 15.69 14.56 12.53
BAC 1.00% -9.2% -9.57 13.68 0.55 -0.29 0.96 1.54 24.87 -47.17 14.25 8.88
AA 0.83% -29.4% -25.48 11.49 1.19 -0.80 0.49 1.02 9.66 -14.36 23.45 11.26
Total: -118.56 Average: NA 13.42 10.85
5
U.S. EQUITIES
Shares of most retailers rallied Tuesday after retail sales in August gained the most in 5 months. JCP was up 7.4%, while ANF (+3.8%), KSS (+3.4%) and M
(+2.9%) also showed notable strength. BBY jumped 6.0% after posting a higher-than-expected quarterly profit and raising its full-year earnings forecast.
Supermarket chain KR (+1.1%) also reported an earnings beat while re-affirming its full-year outlook. Many steel stocks were affected after NU (+0.3%)
said 3rd quarter profit will be lower than expected due to slowing demand and steeper inventory charges, and Goldman Sachs downgraded the industrials
sector to “Neutral.” Meanwhile, BLK (+5.9%) CEO said he was seeing a “renewed flow” of investor capital so far in the 3rd quarter.
Important Earnings Today (with Estimates) From…

CLC: $0.50 S&P Futures
DBRN: $0.49 One Day (High –1127.00; Low – 1114.00):
Source: Bloomberg
Important Conferences/Corporate Meetings Today:

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Media, Comm & Entertainment Conf. – Newport Beach, CA
Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Healthcare Conference – London, GB
Barclays Financial Services Conference – New York, NY
Credit Suisse Small and Mid Cap Conference – Boston, MA
Deutsche Bank Global Emerging Markets One on One Conference – New York, NY
Deutsche Bank Technology Conference – San Francisco, CA
Goldman Sachs Global Retail Conference – New York, NY
Robert W. Baird Health Care Conference – New York, NY
Rodman & Renshaw Global Investment Conference – New York, NY
Stifel Nicolaus Healthcare Conference – Boston, MA
Prior Day SPX (High – 1127.36; Low – 1115.58; Close – 1121.10): Three Day (High – 1127.00; Low – 1112.00):
Source: Thomson ONE

6
FIXED INCOME
Treasuries advanced Tuesday on speculation the Fed will announce a new round of securities purchases this year and as the dollar plunged to a 15-year
low against the yen. The benchmark 10-year note yield dropped 8 bps to 2.67%. In the second offering since its European Union-led bailout in May,
Greece sold 6-month Treasury bills, commanding stronger demand amid higher yields. Investors bid for 4.5 times the securities offered, compared with
3.6 times in July’s auction, while the bills yielded 4.82% versus 4.65% at the previous sale.
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Today’s Important Economic Indicators/Events (with Consensus):

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am EST): 5.0
Import and Export Prices (8:30am EST)
Industrial Production (9:15am EST): 0.2%
o Capacity Utilization: 74.9%
7
U.S. EQUITY OPTIONS
SPX – Today the index traded back and forth in a tight range of –0.6% to + 0.5% ending almost unchanged. With no real downside movement in the underlying index,
the implied premium in SPX options, as seen in the VIX which was down much of the day, ending +1.6%%, as the underlying Index ended relatively weak. There might
have been more of a decline in premium if not for the net buying in seen in several SPX option trades. The most prominent trade today that was indicative of this was
the purchase of a October 1100/1120 put spread over 40,000 times on the day. There were also other net buyers such as the purchase of the October/January put spread
over 10,000 times on the day and the outright purchase of 5,000 October 1160 calls in early trading.
ETF – The market bounced around over the course of the day, but sold off in the last hour of trading to close down on the day. Even with anemic volume in the market
the VIX trended higher on sporadic market movements. The largest trade of the day occurred in EWZ (Brazil) as paper bought 20,000 Oct 74 Calls vs. selling 40,000 Oct 76
Calls as this particular investor is expecting a slight increase in shares. In LQD (Investment Grade Corporate Bonds) one investor is likely hedging an existing position from
a decline as paper bought 10,000 March 100 puts. Lastly, with Gold hitting a high today we saw some bullish activity in GDX , (Vectors Gold Miners), with one investor
selling the Oct 47/46 Put Stupid (selling both lines) 7,500 times. Also, in GLD one investor bought 10,000 Nov 130 Calls delta neutral.
CURRENT IMPLIED VOLATILITY / CURRENT HISTORICAL VOLATILITY
Rank 9/8/2010 9/9/2010 9/10/2010 9/13/2010 9/14/2010 30-Day Implied Vol
1 ARG ARG ARG ARG ARG 35.23
2 FDO FDO FDO FDO NOVL 59.91
3 NOVL NOVL NOVL NOVL FDO 29.84
BIGGEST MOVERS
4 Q Q FSLR MKC PG 13.84 Top 10 30-Day Implied Vol Bottom 10 30-Day Implied Vol
5 MKC DTV Q Q AGN 29.57
6 PEP MKC DTV CEPH FSLR 39.94
BHI 67.87% 36.74 BBY -31.80% 31.94
7 STZ GENZ GIS FSLR AZO 25.27 PG 54.75% 13.84 KR -22.81% 21.51
DPS FTR STZ AGN Q 19.68
8
VMC 43.46% 32.36 MKC -20.49% 20.84
9 SLM SLM GENZ STZ CEPH 32.89
10 GENZ YHOO DTE DTV DTV 23.33 CTSH 41.26% 30.03 PCG -19.34% 23.43
11 YHOO STZ CEPH GENZ HSP 34.45 NU 35.49% 22.55 WEC -15.69% 16.55
12 NKE CLX SLM SLM STZ 28.98
13 PBCT NKE YHOO HSP PEP 16.31 DOW 29.65% 34.52 IFF -14.00% 20.60
14 MSFT HSP HSP PEP YHOO 30.48 DVA 29.29% 22.40 BF/B -13.49% 18.21
15 CEPH PNW CLX YHOO SLM 48.61
16 CLX PEP NKE CLX CLX 15.73 PCS 24.43% 48.17 XLNX -12.15% 28.95
17 MAT GIS WFR KMB KMB 14.02 PFE 18.42% 20.58 ODP -11.22% 56.25
18 HSP STR AZO AZO GENZ 26.07
19 AZO CEPH MSFT WAG MKC 20.84
FTR 17.06% 23.67 ALTR -11.19% 33.48
20 PX MSFT PX WFR GIS 24.48
21 MCK WAG PEP JEC NKE 25.03
22 C MAT CTXS PX QLGC 40.67
23 JEC WPI RSH NKE WAG 25.92
We ranked the S&P 500 companies from the highest to lowest 30 day implied to
24 STR PX WAG GIS RHT 48.93 historical volatility ratio. Above we identify the 10 most positive and negative
25 WPI KR MAT BBY DVA 22.40 movers.
SLM JEC KR MAT BBY
WAG C WPI RSH PX The table to the left represents the 25 highest 30 day implied to historical
BMY MCK PNW CTXS JEC volatility ratios within the S&P 500 companies. The green represents names
COG AZO FTR DTE WFR new to the list while the red represents names that have fallen out.
CAM PBCT MKC MSFT
DTV DPS STR
CTL
KR
8
Exchange-Traded Funds/Indexes
Prior Day Peformance of Largest ETFs by Assets S&P 500 Sector ETFs
Name (Net Assets*) Ticker Category Daily Return Sector Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf Sector Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf
SPDRs SPY Large Blend -0.06% Energy XLE -0.35% -3.93% Telecomm IYZ -0.42% 5.49%
SPDR Gold Shares GLD N/A 1.98% Health XLV 0.34% -3.64% Technology XLK 0.41% -3.10%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index EEM Diversified Emerging Mkts -0.05% Industrials XLI -0.29% 10.15% Consumer Discretionary XLY 0.09% 9.88%
iShares MSCI EAFE Index EFA Foreign Large Blend 0.67% Utilities XLU -0.13% 1.58% Financials XLF -0.88% 2.15%
iShares S&P 500 Index IVV Large Blend 1.59% Consumer Staples XLP 0.18% 4.27% Materials XLB -0.21% 0.91%
Prior Day Top Volume ETFs Currency ETFs
Name Ticker Category Shares Traded Currency Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf Currency Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf
SPDRs SPY Large Blend 207,056,622 Australian Dollar FXA 0.65% 4.74% Mexican Peso FXM 0.47% 1.72%
PowerShares QQQ QQQQ Large Growth 91,140,491 British Pound Sterling FXB 0.91% -3.90% Swedish Krona FXS 1.44% 1.28%
Financial Select SPDR XLF Specialty - Financial 65,942,480 Canadian Dollar FXC -0.04% 2.01% Swiss Franc FXF 1.18% 3.78%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index EEM Diversified Emerging Mkts 65,058,595 Euro FXE 1.04% -9.32% USD Index Bearish UDN 0.84% -4.47%
iShares Russell 2000 Index IWM Small Blend 54,489,831 Japanese Yen FXY 0.68% 11.74% USD Index Bullish UUP -0.84% 1.91%
Prior Day Top Performers VIX ETNs Fixed Income ETFs
Name Ticker Category Daily Return Name Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf Bonds Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf
ProShares Ultra Silver AGQ N/A 5.21% iPath S&P 500 VIX VXX -0.06% -48.43% Aggregate AGG 0.36% 4.79%
ProShares Ultra MSCI Pacific ex-Japan UXJ N/A 5.09% Short-Term Futures ETN Investment Grade LQD 0.47% 7.08%
Direxion Daily Semicondct Bull 3X Shares SOXL N/A 4.90% High Yield HYG -0.02% 1.06%
TMSCI ACWI ex-US Consum AXSL N/A 4.55% iPath S&P 500 VIX VXZ -0.42% 10.40% 1-3 Year Treasuries SHY 0.07% 1.52%
ProShares Ultra Gold UGL N/A 3.98% Mid-Term Futures ETN 7-10 Year Treasuries IEF 0.50% 10.30%
20+ Year Treasuries TLT 0.96% 15.49%
Others
ETF Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf ETF Ticker 1-Day Perf YTD Perf
Gold GLD 1.98% 15.58% Crude Oil USO -0.41% -13.72%
Silver SLV 2.71% 21.23% EAFE Index EFA 0.67% -2.08%
Natural Gas UNG 0.30% -34.52% Emerging Markets EEM -0.05% 4.22%
SPDRs SPY -0.06% 1.09%
Major Index Changes:

None
ETFs in the Headlines and Blogs:

Man vs. Machine: The ETF Monster - http://www.cnbc.com/id/39058655
3 ‘ETF’ Signs That the Stock Market Bull Wants to Run - http://seekingalpha.com/article/225023-3-etf-signs-that-the-stock-market-bull-wants-to-run
9
Top Online Social Networking Stories
Latest Popular Digg.com Business Stories

Gallup poll shows Americans are still not spending like it’s 2008 again - http://www.walletpop.com/blog/2010/09/13/gallup-poll-shows-americans-are-still-
not-spending-like-its-200/
What Are People Buying Online - http://www.sitejabber.com/blog/2010/09/12/what-are-people-buying-online/
Calculated Risk
NFIB: Small Businesses slightly less pessimistic - http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/nfib-small-businesses-slightly-less.html
Retail Sales increase in August - http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/retail-sales-increase-in-august.html
Capital One CEO: “Very cautious about the housing market” - http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/capital-one-ceo-very-cautious-about.html
Investment Contributions to GDP: Leading and Lagging Sectors - http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/investment-contributions-to-gdp-leading.html
On Retail Seasonal Hiring - http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/09/on-retail-seasonal-hiring.html
The Big Picture

FINRA Censures “illicit Equities Trading Strategy” (HFT Trading) - http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/finra-censures-illicit-equities-trading-strategy-hft-
trading/
Battle for the Internet Economy - http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/battle-for-the-internet-economy/
Zero Hedge
John Williams Sees the Onset of Hyperinflation in as Little as 6 to 9 Months as Fed “Tap Dances on a Land Mine” - http://www.zerohedge.com/article/john-
williams-sees-onset-hyperinflation-little-6-9-months-fed-tap-dances-land-mine
Bespoke Investment Group

Emerging Markets Shine - http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2010/9/13/emerging-markets-shine.html
EconomistMom
Those “Best-for-Nothing” Bush/Obama Tax Cuts - http://economistmom.com/2010/09/those-best-for-nothing-bushobama-tax-cuts/
The Washington Post

John Maynard Keynes, the GOP’s latest whipping boy - http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/10/AR2010091003754.html
The Conscience of a Liberal

“Ever-expanding Government” - http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/09/10/ever-expanding-government/
10
GENERAL DISCLOSURES
This presentation discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions. It is provided for general
informational purposes only and should not be relied on for any other purpose. It is not, and is not intended to be, research, a recommendation or investment advice,
as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis, nor an offer to sell or the solicitation of offers to buy any BNY ConvergEx Execution Solutions LLC
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Nicholas Colas (Chief Market Strategist): 212 448 6095 or ncolas@convergex.

Some observations on the year-to-date results first:

Dow Component Weightings

4.0 -0.9 -2.9

-11.7 -12.5 -12.9

DOW COMPONENTS: CONTRIBUTION TO OVERALL DOW YTD PERFORMANCE

Important Earnings Today (with Estimates) From…

Important Conferences/Corporate Meetings Today:

Source: Thomson ONE

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Today’s Important Economic Indicators/Events (with Consensus):

U.S. EQUITY OPTIONS

Major Index Changes:

ETFs in the Headlines and Blogs:

Top Online Social Networking Stories

Latest Popular Digg.com Business Stories

The Big Picture

Bespoke Investment Group

The Washington Post

The Conscience of a Liberal

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