Larger and More Frequent Wildfires - ​Incorporating Anthropogenic Influences 

into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and Climate Change on 
Fire Activity in California 

Wildfires are becoming more frequent in Southern California. An estimate of future fires 
to occur is at an alarming increasing rate of about nine to fifty three percent by the end 
of this century. With the more frequent wildfires, the total areas burned is expected to 
increase by 2.2% to 5%. Humans, on its own, are responsible for starting about 95% 
of these wildfires. The 95% comes from a variety of human activities such as building 
homes and other infrastructures in wild areas that are prone to fire. Biophysical 
influences in climate change account for the rest of the wildfires, started by the decline 
in the climate as a result of evapotranspiration. An example of this is the evaporation of 
soil more than the soil can handle. With an increasing amount of fires and the area it 
burns, this contributes negatively to the environment and California as native species 
are being burned and the air is being polluted. These factors contribute to climate 
change.   

Mann ML, Batllori E, Moritz MA, Waller EK, Berck P, Flint AL, et al. (2016) Incorporating 
Anthropogenic Influences into Fire Probability Models: Effects of Human Activity and 
Climate Change on Fire Activity in California. PLoS ONE 11(4): e0153589. 
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0153589 

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0153589#references 

Response 

1) A way to mitigate wildfires is by purposely igniting fires. This is called the fuel 
treatment. The goal of these treatments is to manage vegetation which in turn reduces 
hazardous fuels. Fuel treatments have been found to suppress wildfires and lower the 
probability of wildfires, as well as cutting down losses of these controlled fires versus 
wildfires. Carbon emissions can also be predicted for decades as small fuel treatments 
are periodically given. Overall, carbon storage is reduced. Despite the benefits of fuel 
treatments, there are possible negative effects on species in the forests being treated 
for. For example, a study has been conducted on the California Spotted Owl and it was 
found that fires do benefit the owl and its habitat, but there are long-term negative 
effects on its habitat without the continuation of these fires over the course of 30 years. 

Sources: 
1- Stephens, S. L., R. E. J. Boerner, J. J. Moghaddas, E. E. Y. Moghaddas, B. M. 
Collins, C. B. Dow, C. Edminster, C. E. Fiedler, D. L. Fry, B. R. Hartsough, J. E. Keeley, 
E. E. Knapp, J. D. McIver, C. N. Skinner, and A. Youngblood. 2012. Fuel treatment 
impacts on estimated wildfire carbon loss from forests in Montana, Oregon, California, 
and Arizona. Ecosphere 3(5):38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES11-00289.1 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/ES11-00289.1/full (Links to an external 

site.)Links to an external site. 

2- Tempel, D. J., R. J. Gutiérrez, J. J. Battles, D. L. Fry, Y. Su, Q. Guo, M. J. Reetz, S. 

A. Whitmore, G. M. Jones, B. M. Collins, S. L. Stephens, M. Kelly, W. J. Berigan, and 
M. Z. Peery. 2015. Evaluating short- and long-term impacts of fuels treatments and 
simulated wildfire on an old-forest species. Ecosphere 6(12):261. 
http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES15-00234.1 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1890/ES15-00234.1/abstract (Links to an external 

site.)Links to an external site. 

2) California has proposed fees on single disposable plastic bags in attempt to reduce 
greenhouse gases. Decomposing plastic bags is known to release these greenhouse 
gases, and with this measure, plastic bag usage has decreased at about a 42% rate. 
Also, from 2012 to 2013, there was a 90% reduction in the usage of plastic bags from 
just the LA county. With less usage of plastic bags, it will also benefit marine species 
and reduce the damages caused by littering. 

Source: Newman S., Watkins E., Farmer A., Brink P.., Schweitzer JP. (2015) The 
Economics of Marine Litter. In: Bergmann M., Gutow L., Klages M. (eds) Marine 
Anthropogenic Litter. Springer, Cham 

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-16510-3_14#Abs1