NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC 17

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ANNUAL DATA AND VERIFICATION TABULATION

ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES1981
Staff, NHC
National Hurricane Center

Miami, Florida
November 1982
INTRODUCTION
Thi~ is the eighth report of an annual series prepared by the
N~tionaL Hurricane Center (NHC) to provide a source of summarized data
on Atlantic tropical cyclones. It will not duplicate the narrative overview
of the hurricane season and the description of individual storms, which will
continue to be published in the Monthly Weather Review.
In addition to data supplied by the National Weather Service,
materials have been furnished by the NOAA National Earth Satellite Services
(NESS) Miami Office, and the CARCAH(Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination,
all Hurricanes).
OB:!ECTIVE FORECASTTECHNIQUES
The following tropical cyclone prediction models were used at the
National Hurricane Center for forecasting motion on an operational basis:
1.. NHC-67 (Miller, Hill, Chase, 1968). A stepwise screening
regression model using predictors derived from the current
and 24-hour old 1000, 700, and 500 mb data, and includes
persistence during the early forecast periods.
2. SANBAR {Sanders and Burpee, 1968). A filtered barotropic
model using input data derived from the 1000 to 100 mb
pressure weighted winds. The model requires use of "bogus"
data in data-void areas. The system was modified by Pike
(1972) so that the initial wind field near the storm would
conform to the current storm motion.
HURRAN (Hope and Neumann, 1970). An analog system using as
as data base the tracks of all Atlantic tropical storms and
hurricanes dating back to 1886.
3.
4 CLIPER (Neumann, 1972). Stepwise multiple screening regression
using the predictors derived from climatology and persistence.
NHC-72 (Neumann, Hope, Miller, 1972). A modified stepwise
multiple screening regression system which combines the NHC-67
concept and the CLIPER system into a single model
6. NHC-73 (Neumann and Lawrence, 1973). Similar in concept to the
NHC-72 except it also uses the "perfect prog" and Mas (model
output statistics) methods to introduce NMC (National Meteoro-
logical Center) numerical prognostic data into the prediction
equations.
7 NMC MFM MODEL, (Hovermale, 1975). A ten-level baroclinic model
which uses a moving fine mesh (MFM) grid nested within the
coarser NMC fixed grid primitive equation (PE) model.

.
In addition, bperational forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity
changes in knots at l2~hourly intervals out to 72 hours are generated by a
Generation
of the forecast equations was done by multiple screening regression techniques
using historical tropical cyclone data as input. Results over the past
several years have shown that SHIFOR and official intensity forecasts have
comparable skill scores.
The National Hurricane Center uses the above models as guidance
in the formulation of its 'forecasts. The hurricane forecaster also makes
extensive use of analyses and prognoses produced by NMC and RCTM (Regional
Center for Tropical Meteorology) in Miami.
VERIFICATION
Verification statistics for the 1981 season are shown in Table 1.
5.
,t
The initial position error in Table 1 is the difference between the operational
initial position and that determined during post analysis (best track position)
The forecast displacement error is the vector difference between the forecast
displacement and the actual displacement computed from best-track positions.
Landfall prediction errors for the official forecasts are given in Tables 2a
and 2b These are defined as the distance from the predicted landfall point,
made 24 hours prior to actual landfall, to the actual landfall point In

cases where a storm either crossed an island or made landfall when predicted
to remain offshore, the error was designated as the distance from the landfall
point to the nearest point on the forecast track
Tropical cyclone warning lead times for United States landfalling
storms are given in Table 3a. A summary of warning lead times for the period
1970-1981 for hurricanes only and for both tropical storms and hurricanes is
given in Table 3b. The length of time between the issuance of the warnings
and the time that the center crossed the coast, as determined from the
track, w~s taken as the warning lead time. A more complete discussion of
the verification of tropical cyclone warning lead times, as well as verifi-
cations for individual storms from 1970-1977, can be found in the 1977 .~nua1
Data and Verification Tabulation (Lawrence, Hebert, and Staff, 1979)
DATA SUMMARIES
A summary of. 1981 North Atlantic tropical and subtropical cyclone
statistics is given in Table 4. Tracks of 1981 named storms as well as the
November subtropical cyclone are shown in Figure 1.
The best track, initial, and forecast positions for 1981 named
storms are in Table 5, along with initial position and forecast errors,
storm average errors
3
Table 6 lists all center fix positions and intensity evaluations
used operationally at the National Hurricane Center during 1981. Fixes are
in chronological order, and include those obtained by aerial reconnaissance
penetrations, satellite (Miami SFSS), and land-based radar. The legend
precedes the initial table
Supplementary Vortex Data Messages which replaced Vortex Profiles
in the 1977 Annual Data Tabulation are given in Table 7. A diagram of the
paths flo~ in obtaining these Data Messages is given in Figure 2. The
symbolic code for interpreting the Data Messages is given as Appendix A.
Table 8 is an aerial reconnaissance summary for the 1981 season.
Graphs of the lowest central pressure versus time for 1981 tropical
cyclones and the subtropical cyclone are presented in Figure 3.
Daily SMS-2 and GOES-S satellite photographs of 1981~amed tropical
cyclones and the subtropical cyclone are shown in Figure 4
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Main contributors were: Frank Revitte and Andrew Stern, who listed
the center fixes in chronological order and performed other miscellaneous
tasks; Dr. Joseph Pelissier, who computed the verification statistics;
Mary Watson, who drafted the pressure/time graphs; Mr. Frank Marques
who did all reduction work on the graphs and tables; and Ms. Lilias Wilson
and Ms. Mary Ellen Dell, who typed the tables and manuscript
Ms.
REFERENCES
Hope, J. R., and C. J. Neumann, 1970: "An Operational Technique for

Relating the Movement of Existing Tropical Cyclones to Past
Tracks," Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 98, No. 23, pp. 925-933.
Hovermale, J. B., and R. E. Livezey, 1977: "Three-Year Performance

Characteristics of the NMC Hurricane Model," Preprints 11th
~~ch~iEal ~on~erenc~- on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology,
Miami Beach, Amer. Meteor. Soc., pp. 122-125.
Lawrence, M. B., P. J. Hebert, and Staff, NHC, 1979: "Annual Data and
Verification Tabulation Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1977."
NOAA Technical Memorandum NWS NHC-B, 46 pp.
Miller, B. T., E. C. Hill and P. P. Chase, 1968: "Revised Technique for

Forecasting Hurricane Motion by Statistical Methods ," Monthly
Weather Review, Vol. 96, No.8, pp. 540-548.
Neumann, C. J., 1972: "An Alternative to the HURRANTropical Cyclone

Forecast System," NOAA Technical Memorandum NWSSR-62, 24 pp.
, J. R. Hope ana B. I. Miller, 1972: "A Statistical Method

of Combining Synoptic and Empirical Tropical Cyclone Prediction
Systems," NOAA Technical Memorandum NWSSR-63, 32 pp.
, and M. B. Lawrence, 1973: "Statistical-Dynamical Prediction

of Tropical Cyclone Motion (NHC-73)," NOAA Technical Memorandum
NWSSR-69, 34 pp.
1979: I'A Guide to Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Models

for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion," NOAA Technical
Memorand~m NWSNHC-ll. 26 pp.
A. C.. 1972: "Improved Barotropic Hurricane Track Prediction by

Adjustment of the Initial Wind Field," NOAA Technical Memorandum
NWSSR-66, 16 pp.
Sanders, F., and R. W. Burpee, 1968: "Experiments in Barotropic Hurricane

Track Forecasting," Journal of Applied Meteorology, Vol. 7, No.3,
pp. 313-323.
'
Pike,
LIST OF FIGURES, TABLES, AND APPENDICES
Table l. Verification of 1981 tropical storm and hurricane forecasts.

Figures in parentheses are the number of cases.
Table 2a.
Table 2b. Twelve-year summary of errors in the prediction of the point of

landfall of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes during the
period 1970-1981.
Table 3a. Warning lead times for 1981 landfalling United States tropical
storms and hurricanes.
TabJ-e 3b. Summary of warning lead times for hurricanes only and all tropical
cyclones for the period 1970-1981.
Table 4. Summary of 1981 tropical and subtropical cyclone statistics.
Tabl~ 5. Best track, initial and forecast positions, initial position

error and forecast errors for 1981 tropical cyclones.
Table 6. Center fix positions and intensity evaluations for 1981 tropical
and subtropical cyclones.
Table 7. Supplementary Vortex Data Messages, 1981 Atlantic tropical cyclonet
Table 8. Tropical cyclone reconnaissance summary for 1981 hurricane season.
Figure 1. Tracks of 1981 tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Figure 2. Flight pattern flown in obtaining Supplementary Vortex Data

Messages.
Figure 3. Lowest pressure vs. time, 1981 tropical and subtropical
Figure 4. Daily satellite photographs of 1981 tropical and subtropical

cyclones.
Appendix A. Code for Supplementary Vortex Data Messages of Table 7.
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Table 2a Landfal
Bret Trap. Dep 07/0J/O6Z Virginia eastern shore. Trop.

Depression at time of landfall.
Cindy (No landfa
Dennis Trop. Storm *

o8/J6/2JZ Florida Keys
Dennis (II) Trap. Storm 08/17/06z 15 mi. S Southwest tip of Florida
Dennis (I Trap. Storm 08/20/02l 35 mi. NE Near Cape Fear, NC
Emi Iy (No landfall)
Floyd (No landfal I)
Gert Trop. Storm 09/08/202 55 mi. S Landfall in Puerto Ricb.

Storm forecast to remain
offshore to the south of P.R.
Harvey (No I 3ndfaJl)
Irene (No I 3ndfaJl)
Joe (No 1 ~ndfaJ I)
Katrina TrOD Storm 11/06/032 35 mi. NW Landfall in eastern Cuba
1:Storm developed within 24 hours of making landfa11, therefore no forecast was made
24 hours prior to landfall.
Table 2b Twelve-year summary of errors in the prediction of the points of 1andfal of

Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes during the period 1970-1981.
United States landfalls Al 11 Landfalls
1981 Mean 24-Hour Landfa1 Prediction 25 n.mi. 35 n.mi.

Error (number of cases) (2) (4)
12 year average 1970-1981 39 n.mi. 50 n. mi
(21 ) (55)
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LEGEND FOR TABLE 6
Key to Observational (obs. Unit and Resolution
OBSERVATIONALUNIT
Reconnaissance
AF = Air Force
NOAA = National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration
Satellite
SMS-2 = Synchronous Meteorological Satellite
GOES-5 = Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite
Radar
EYW-R = Key West, Florida National Weather Service Radar

MIA-R = Miami, Florida National Weather Service Radar
TBW-R = Tampa Bay, Florida National Weather Service Radar
DAB-R = Daytona Beach, Florida National Weather Service Radar
CHS-R = Charleston, South Carolina National Weather Service Radar
lLM-R = Wilmington, North Carolina National Weather Service Radar ..
HAT-R = Cape Hatteras, North Carolina National Weather Service Radar'
RESOLUTION
Reconnaissance
Navigational Accuracy/Meteorological Accuracy.
Satellite
Classification confidence*, location and confidence** or infrared,

resolution (KIn).
*1 = completely certain as to current intensity number used.

2 = tempted to vary up or down by 1/2 T or S number.
3 = might vary up or down by 1 T or S number, or more.
**1 = well defined eye with certain picture registration.

2 = well defined eye with uncertain picture registration.
3 = well defined circulation center with certain picture registration.
4 = well defined circulation center with uncertain picture
5 = poorly defined circulation center with certain picture
6 = poorly defined circulation center with uncertain picture
(Example -1,1, VSBL 1 = classification confidence 1, location confidence 1,

visible picture with 1 kilometer resolution.)
(Example -2»5, IR 8 = classification confidence 2, location confidence 5,

infrared picture with 8 kilometer resolution.)
38
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7. Supplementary vortex data messages, 1981 Atlantic tropical cyclones
ARLENE
URNT12 KMIA 092130 COR

AF985 0301 ARLENE OB 12 COR KMIA
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
AZIMUTH 09 DEG FLO14
RIGHT RE.\R QUAD
80012 82220 40011 42119 30011 32020 10/// 12020
00011 02120 64//1- 50//1 34111 MXO15 21080 /////
RIGHT FRONT QUAD
8//// 8///1 4//// 4//// 30011 32020 10011 12020
00011 02120 64/// 50/// 34/// }~025 13015 ////1
LEFT FRONT QUAD
8//// 8//// 4//// 4//// 30011 32020 10011 12020
00011 02020 64/// 50//1 341// MX022 05015 /////
LEFT REAR QUAD
8//// 8//// 4/i/1 4///1 30013 31919 10012 11919
00011 02020 64/// 50//1 34/// MXO19 33030 //11/
REMARKS SFC WINDS FOR RIGHT REAR QUAD 80NM -34015 45NM -33015
SFC WINDS FOR LEFT REAR QUAD 30NM -36015 15NM -36015
DENNIS
URNT 12 KMIA 191311 COR

AF553 1506 DENNIS OB 07 COR KMIA
SUPPLEMENTARYVORTEX DATA MESSAGE
AZIMUTH 36 DEG FL01l
RIGHT REAR QUAD MX042 12080
90004 80004 60003 40001 30001 10001 00000
924//823// 623// 423// 323// 124// 024//
92031 82042 61836 41827 31717 1//// 09905
RIGHT FRONT QUAD MX029 01090
90006 80004 60004 40003 30003 10003 00003
925// 825// 625// 424// 325// 124// 025//
91029 81322 61216 40814 31215 1//// 09903
REMARKS SFC WND IN RR QUAD AT 30NM 19030
SFC WNDS IN RF QUAD -100NM 11020 80NM 12020 60NM 12015
45NM 10010 30NM 12005 15NM 12003
CNTR WND 990030
63
Table 7 conti;nued.
URNT12 KMIA 191830

AF980 1606 DENNIS OB 10 KMIA
AZIMUTH 36 DEG FLOI0
9//// 80005 60004 40004 30004 10002 00001
9//// 82524 62624 42523 32524 12523 02524
9//// 81831 61320 41814 31826 11612 09905
LEFT REAR QUAD MX026 23045
9//// 8//// 60005 40003 30003 10002 00001
9//// 8//// 62222 42222 32424 12424 02524
9//// 8//// 63318 43523 32617 13511 09905
90007 80007 60005 40003 30002 10000 00000
92423 82322 62322 42323 32424 12424 02525
92435 82230 62330 42243 3202112413 09905
REMARKS UNABLE TO DO LEFT FRONT QUAD
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF LAND.
URNT12 KMIA 192056

AF980 1606 DENNIS OB 15 KMIA
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE -
AZIMUTH 05 DEG FL010-
90006 80005 60004 40002 30001 10000 00000
92524 82523 62424 42524 32624 12424 02525
91936 82036 61925 41922 31921 12421 09905
LEFT FRONT QUADMXO18 36045
9//// 80006 60004 40003 30001 10000 00000
9//// 82523 62523 42424 32524 12524 02525
9//// 80716 60918 41018 31210 10712 09905
9//// 8//// 60004 40004 30003 10001 00000
9//// 8//// 62424 42424 32424 12524 02525
9//// 8//// 62234 22133 32123 12619 09905
9//// 8//// 60004 40003 30001 10000 00999
9//// 8//// 62423 42423 32424 12524 02525
9//// 8//// 62045 41835 31827 11820 09905
64
7 continued.
URNT12 KMIA 200510 COR 02

AF866 1706 DENNIS OB 06 COR 02 KMIA
AZIMUTH 04 DEG FL099
.RIGHT FRONT QUAD MX045 09075
93114 83105 63093 43083 33068 13056 00999
90909 80909 60909 40909 31008 11010 02322
92137 82045 n.2039 42039 32035 12026
93126 83113 63110 43095 33080 13062 all//
90907 81007 61107 41008 31007 11010 01110
92426 82505 62526 42726 32924 12926
EMILY

AF967 0109 EMILY OB 11 COR KMIA
AZIMUTH 060 DEG FL 095
93013 8//// 63970 4//// 3//// 1//// 03833
91005 80903 60805 40907 3//// 1//// 01208
92235 82354 '62351 42250 32140 12123 all//
LEFT FRONT QUAD MX045 02015
93982 8////63955 43933 33888 13868 03801
90808 8//// 60906 40909 30909 11109 01409
90719 80711 61039 41035 30940 10545 all//
93011 83996 63978 43966 13940 13866 03801
91103 81005 61005 41006 31006 11010 01409
92379 82742 62752 43420 32957 12853
93984 83978 6//// 43931 33925 13838 03797
90905 80905 6//// 40907 30909 11111 02409
93533 83333 63444 40130 30233 10345 all//
65
Table 7 continued.

AF968 0209 EMILY OB 06 COR 02 KMIA
93997 83982 63979 43970 33930 13878 03823
910// 811// 610// 409// 310// 114// 015//
93030 83138 63127 4//// 33341 13342
93019 83004 63989 43952 33928 13894 03823
909// 810// 608// 409// 310// 111// 015//
92438 82445 62549 42550 32459 12457
93999 83977 63956 43929 33895 13837 03824
909// 809// 608// 410// 311// 113// 015//
90428 80434 60339 40446 30248 10230
93989 83974 63955 43945 33919 13882 03824
909// 808// 610// 410// 311// 114// 015//
93527 83532 63327 43335 33236 13121
ZCZC WBC 652

RIGHT FRONT QUAD MX 053 06050
93007 83995 63980 43957 33912 13869 03820
908// 808// 608// 408// 309// 110// 015//
91240 81345 61245 41250 31233 11346
93998 83974 63955 43927 33912 13855 03820
908// 807// 608// 409// 310// 113// 015//
90742 80844 60941 40853 30742 10637

AZIMUTH 360 DEG 'FL095
93018 83983 63971 43961 33949 13928 03810
90806 80807 60907 40907 31005 10908 01211
90524 80540 60529 40528 30428 10538 09905
93967 83958 63932 4//// 33878 13817 03810
90805 80905 61007 41007 31010 11210 01211
91426 81629 61534 41434 31436 11212 09905
93990 83974 63956 43939 33924 13892 03797
90905 81006 60907 41007 30908 11008 01210
93136 83037 62940 43046 33045 13154 09905
93978 83964 63950 43922 33887 13833 03797
90906 80905 60908 41009 31009 11109 01210
92338 82337 62344 42344 32252 12244 09905
66
7 continued
ZCZC WBC 106

URNT12 KMIA 061205
AF967 0509 EMILY OB 16 KMIA
SUPPLEMENTARYVORTEX DATA MESSAGE
AZIMUTH ,05 DEG FL095
RIGHT REAR QUAD MX 052 18030
93983 83965 63942 43925 33915 13835 03803
90808 80905 61007 41009 31010 11310 01409
92641 82745 62843 42736 32752 12643 all//
93986 8//// 63953 43938 33904 13872 03810
90906 8//// 60908 41008 31007 11110 01410
92242 82138 62148 42246 32346 12142 all//

AZIMUTH 04 DEG FLI00
LEFT REAR QUAD MX 043 30060
93977 83958 63915 43851 33829 1//// 03826
908// 809// 610// 411// 313// 1//// 013//
90134 80140 60243 40221 30108 1////
LEFT FRONT QUAD MX 050 35030
93006 83988 63967 43946 3392113875 03926
908// 808// 608// 409// 309// 110// 013//
90836 80941 61044 40948 31150 11246
93991 83976 63958 43936 33912 13860 03823
909// 810// 610// 410// 310// 112// 012//
91941 81729 61742 41638 31538 11546
93030 83995 63964 43927 33906 13842 03823
908// 808// 608// 409// 310// 111// 012//
92940 82843 62855 42947 32947 13033
67
Table 7 continued.

SUPPLEMENTARY FORTEX DATA MESSAGE
LEFT REAR QUAD MX 049 28015
93022 83016 63010 43994 33982 13979 02848
90807 80808 60807 40807 30808 10909 01212
93522 83420 63432 43428 33525 13630
93012 83997 63979 47954 33930 13890 03848
90806 80807 60808 40909 30909 10909 01212
92739 82743 62650 42751 32752 12853
93002 83970 63956 43928 33882 1//// 03847
90808 80808 60909 40909 31010 1//// 01211
91742 81528 61737 41743 31642 1////
LEFT FRONT QUAD MX 038 35015
93999 83983 63968 43950 33928 13901 03847
90807 80808 60808 40909 30909 10908 01211
91020 80930 60928 40931 30931 10838
FLOYD

AF972 0210 FLOYD OB 09 COR KMIA
90013 80013 60012 40012 30010 10007 00999
92522 82422 62422 42422 32322 12322 02322
91727 81627 61530 41535 31742 11855 all//
LEFT FRONT QUADMX065 33020
90012 80012 60011 40009 30006 10998 00997
92522 82522 62422 42422 32522 12623 02623
90815 80419 60525 40530 30237 10565 all//
68
7 continued.

93175 83175 63163 43150 33130 13095 03050-90905
80906 60906 41006 30908 11407 01706
92212 82616 62316 42215 32021 12326
93178 3170/ 63170 43166 33144 13123 OJ038
91002 81005 61005 40806 30706 10808 01709
91115 80910 60924 40626 30944 1////
93170 83166 6//// 43139 33107 13077 03038
90906 80908 6//// 40909 31208 11105 01709
91533 81413 6//// 41642 31468 11342
93162 83161 63151 43143 33130 13106 03065
90906 80806 60805 40807 30907 11010 01606
93614 83308 63317 43516 33215 10127

LEFT FRONT QUADMX061 34018
93160 83154 63148 43139 33118 13106 03008
90906 80906 60905 40806 30909 11008 01615
90112 83324 63225 43129 33135 12832
93164 83165 63159 43148 33135 13112 03008
91003 81003 60806 40908 30908 11010 01615
92511 82714 62618 42325 32322 12328
93201 83171 63168 43166 33138 13147 03004
91006 80906 60907 40807 30808 10907 01809
92030 81834 61738 41930 31838 11845
93169 83159 63147 43138 3319113107 03004
90606 80707 60707 40808 30908 10808 01809
91227 80935 61138 41246 30938 11031
69
)le
Table 7 continued.
URNT12 KMIA 070710

AF980 0610 FLOYD OB 06 KMIA
93184 83173 63168 43162 33133 13077 03924
91001 8090~ 60905 40907 31006 10909 01706
91930 82038 62038 42135 32052 12173
93166 83165 63154 43143 33129 13086 03924
90805 80806 60806 40907 30909 11110 01706
90207 80408 60108 40208 30521 10142

AF866 0810 FLOYD OB 09 COR 02 KMIA
93165 83167 63167 43161 33158 13124 03035
90802 80702 60703 40803 30903 10909 02108
90708 80425 60225 40130 30119 13634
93176 83164 63149 43120 33106 13080 03035
91002 81005 61007 40909 31106 11105 02108
92431 82529 62636 42439 32648 12440
93182 83173 63158 43142 33106 13066 03038
90902 80904 60705 40806 31010 11307 02004
91731 81631 61835 41839 31944 11945
93172 83163 63150 43145 33137 13092 03038
90803 80803 60707 40908 30909 11108 02004
91111 81121 61225 41134 3//// 10940
70
~
7 continued.

SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX nATA MESSAGE
LEFT REAR QUAD MX033. 26015
93155 83950 63147 43135 33126 13107 03027
90802 80904 61004 41007 31105 11104 01005
90214 80217 63520 43424 33332 13233
93206 83162 63161 43152 33146 13132 03110
91001 80905 61004 41105 31205 11105 01004
92728 82538 62434 42434 32619 12830
GERT
AF969 0311 GERT OB 07 COR KMIA
AZIMUTH 29 DEG FL010 ~
90013 80013 60012 40012 30012 10010 00001
92318 82318 62316 42217 32217 12218 02724
99905 89905 62316 42327 32427 12127
RIGHT REAR QUAD MXO33 36030
90013 80012 60012 40010 30007 11/11 00003
92420 82419 62318 42320 32421 11/11 02622
91233 81026 61031 41033 30832 11111
LEFT FRONT QUAD MXO1825060
90012 80012 60012 40012 3001110009 00003
92621 82621 62420 42420 32320 12420 02622
92311 82217 62118 42415 32216 12610
LEFT REAR QUAD MX04315025
90013 80014 60013 40013 30012 10012 00005
92518 82418 62316 42216 32119 12120 02422
91814 82018 62325 42527 32136 12143
71
Table 7 continued.
URNT12 KMIA 081932

AF969 0311 ~ OB 14 KMIA
RIGHT FRONT QUAD MX02733030
9//// 8//// 6//// 40010 30009 10007 00005
9//// 8//// 6//// 42519 32420 12422 02422
///// 8//// 6//// 40626 30427 10620
LEFT FRONT QUAD MX02325020
9//// &//// 6//// 40011 30009 10007 00003
9//// 8//// 6//// 42521 32420 12421 02723
9//// 8//// 6//// 40113 33420 13123
REMARKS LAST REPORT OBS 01 -14 TO KMIA.
ETA 1wn(pA08/18202.
URNT12 KMIA 101015

AF968 0811 ~ OB 13 KMIA
90013 80013 60013 40012 30011 10011 00009
92424 82422 62422 42422 32423 12424 02524
91714 81523 61522 41523 31826 11925
LEFT FRONT QUAD MXO1927080
90012 80011 60011 40010 30010 10010 00009
92524 82522 62523 42623 32524 12523 02524
90919 80919 60918 40414 33615 13614
72
7 continued.
URNT12 KMIA 121630

AF906 1511 GERT OB 09 KMIA
93150 83135 63107 4//// 3//// 1//// 03076
91009 81107 61426 4//// 3//// 1//// 01609
93116 83036 62835 4//1/ 3//// 1////
9//1/ 8//// 6//// 4//// 3//1/ 13170 03076
9//// 8//// 6//// 4//// 3//// 11111 01609
9/1// 8//// 6//// 4//// 3//// 13034

AF866 1611 GERT OB 09 COR KMIA
9//// 83153 63141 43139 33104 13078 00998.
9//// 80804 61005 41005 31208 11408 02424
9//// 82747 62746 42840 33033 13547
9//// 83115 63101 43070 3//// 1//// 00999
9//// 80808 61004 41111 3//// 1//// 02523
9//// 82060 61835 4//// 3//// 1////
LEFr REAR QUAD MX043 27030
93136 83133 63128 43124 3312113115 00999
91052 80952 60802 40902 30904 11004 02523
93117 82915 63026 43128 30243 13533
73
Table 7 continued.
HARVEY

AF972 0212 HARVEY OB 12 COR KMIA
AZlMUTE 29 DEG FL010
90012 80012 60010 40012 30009 10008 00001
92522 82421 62422 42322 32322 12422 02524
91222 81321 61236 41433 31348 11743
90011 80011 60009 40008 30005 1//// 00000
92421 82121 62420 42421 32121 1//// 02722
90822 80826 60633 40850 30757 1////
9//// 8//// 60008 40008 30008 10007 00997
9//// 8//// 62422 42422 32422 12322 02722
9//// 8//// 61910 41810 31725 11820

AF980 0312 HARVEY OB 13 COR 03 KMIA
93140 83131 63125 43120 33115 13085 03981
91108 80907 60908 41107 30907 10907 01607
91830 81830 61729 41839 32042 12031
93115 83109 63097 43085 33067 13052 03981
90807 80807 60907 40806 30906 10907 01607
91353 81451 61244 41144 31040 10945
9//// 83091 63072 43048 33014 13987 03983
9//// 81009 60908 40909 31009 11309 01610
9//// 81037 60945 40945 30418 13107
93095 83092 63090 43074 33059 13041 03983
90909 80909 60808 40909 30808 11111 01610
90439 83620 60623 43517 30212 13523
74
continued.

93123 83116 63098 43073 33054 13021 03982
90905 80908 60908 40808 31010 11210 01510
91845 81839 61848 '41840 31743 11741
RIGHT FRONT QUAD MX047 '35045
93122 83107 63089 43075 33054 13988 03974
90808 80901 60908 40907 31109 11312 01711
90837 80534 60741 40747 30746 10429
93113 83105 63083 43074 33053 13015 03974
90908 80908 60908 41009 31009 11208 01711
90223 80123 63527 43520 33424 13125
93119 83113 63098 43081 33063 13031 03969
91008 80906 61005 41008 31008 11210 01609
92432 82039 62033 42432 32438 12642

LEFT REA~ QUAD MX047 18030
9//// 83094 63102 43079 33059 13016 03928
9//// 80902 60805 40903 31005 10908 01410
9//// 82426 63333 43137 33047 13235
93128 83104 63089 43073 33031 13985 03928
90907 80805 61003 41003 31307 11210 01410
91642 81847 61848 41853 31854 11954
93107 83097 63064 43043 33995 13949 03923
90806 80707 60707 40907 30909 11109 01110
90941 80851 60841 40649 30255 13110
93116 83095 63076 43055 33030 13970 03923
90804 80804 60707 40906 30908 11308 01110
93629 81406 60108 43527 33631 13440
75
Table 7 continued.

93086 83051 63036 43999 33803 13773 03760
90905 81108 61108 41107 31312 11511 01710
92442 82541 62542 42648 32764 12718
93110 83093 63063 43053 33995 13893 03760
90905 80907 60909 41009 31110 11010 01710
91853 81860 61750 41759 31765 11988
93086 83069 63056 43958 33917 13920 03738
90907 81008 61009 41010 31110 11411 01619
91346 81048 60942 40753 31075 10735
rc\
LEFT FRONT QUAD MK065 31015
93121 83106 62099 43074 33041 13954 03738
90906 81008 61009 40909 31109 11110 01609
90121 83131 63636 43334 33438 13465

AF966 0712 HARVEYOB 13 COR 02 KMIA
RIGHT REAR QUAD MXl07 12005
9//// 83111 63045 43045 33005 13935 03617
9//// 805// 607// 407// 307// 107// 015//
9//// 82065 62055 42163 32166 12282
93121 83103 63078 43004 33996 13926 03617
909// 808// 606// 407// 307// 108// 051//
90429 80244 60347 40345 30251 10450
76
..~ble
7 continued.

93108 83112 63096 43077 -33029 13968 03606
911// 811// 611// 409// 310// 108// 016//
92843 82837 62844 42846 32957 12965
93105 83069 63029 4//// 33902 13801 03606
905// 807// 606// 4//// 310// 108// 016//
91725 81542 61555 41468 31469 11472
93104 83092 63043 43996 33924 1//// 03631
909// 810// 608// 407// 308// 111// 016//
90239 80142 63649 43553 33555 13555
93126 83100 63070 43027 33965 13898 03631
907// 810// 609// 407// 309// 114// 016//
92543 82753 62667 42666 32675 12571 .

LEFT REAR GUAD MX095 21020
9//// 8//// 63067 43040 33006 13970 03730
9//// 8f/// 60903 41003 30904 11104 01505
9//// 8//// 62961 42952 32961 12952
93135 83107 63067 43031 3397113877 03730
90905 80704 60805 40905 30806 11207 01505
92260 82268 62371 42291 32490 12580
93080 83046 63010 43917 33836 13781 03744
90606 80905 60906 41007 31307 11408 01709
91673 8//// 61486 4//// 31154 11152
9//// 83081 63039 43991 33923 13847 03744
9//// 80806 61107 41107 31308 11809 01709
9//// 80641 60432 40450 30172 10247
77
Table 7 continued.
URNT12 KMIA 152019

AF972 0912 HARVEY OB 08 KMIA
93123 83114 63087 43058 33030 13962 03737
90905 80906 60906 41006 31009 11106 01412
92267 82259 6227142382 32375 12498
93065 83042 63006 43919 33739 13752 03737
90707 80808 61010 40707 31211 11511 01412
92217 82119 61556 41665 32140 12642
IRENE

AF972 0114 IRENE OB 07 COR KMIA
93103 83085 63047 43982 3//// 1//// 03933
91005 80706 60707 40808 3//// 1//// 01706
90127 83648 60323 40436 3//// 11//1
93100 83070 63037 43009 33954 13936 03933
90808 80808 60909 40909 3111111507 01706
91242 80850 61043 41140 31070 11062
93115 83106 63095 43080 33052 13990 03921
90904 80905 60805 41006 31007 11407 01310
92528 82527 62544 42444 32556 12461
RMKS ACFT CHANGED ALPHA PATTERN. RIGHT FRONT QUAD
NOT FLOWN DUE TO RADAR ATTENUATION.
78
7 continued.

AF967 0214 IRENE OB 06 COR 02 KMIA
93098 83084 63066 43022 33987 13928 03881
90803 80706 60905 40909 31305 11808 01706
92638 82736 62844 42847 32760 12678
93110 83096 63068 43023 33970 13906 03881
90805 80804 61003 40908 31305 11707 01706
91850 81860 61775 41880 31890 12151
93104 83089 63074 43057 33005 13907 03876
90604 80705 60804 40806 30807 11310 01606
90257 80241 60152 43552 33570 13225
93096 83084 63057 43032 33984 13919 03876
90706 80707 60808 40808 30707 11UO 01606
91050 81050 60965 40975 31081 10963
URNT12 KMIA 261340

AF964 0314 IRENE OB 07 KMIA
RIGHT FRONT QUAD MX32 FL100
93058 83041 63016 43977 33952 13948 00353
90808 81010 61111 41609 31709 12105 01808
91157 81351 61449 41547 31840 12036
93059 83040 63010 43978 33939 13/// 03934
90806 81008 61209 40909 31609 1//// 01610
90263 80161 63154 43158 32638 12840
93104 83079 63068 43052 33998 13957 03934
91008 80909 60909 40909 30909 11410 01610
92919 83045 62838 42748 32634 12533
79
~
Table 7'continued.
,- ..
URNT12 KMIA 17051~ COR
AF972 04 14 ~ OB 15 COR KMIA
,LEFT REAR QUAD MX052 15015
93052 83043 63016 43987 33929 13887 03815
91007 81008 61008 41109 31109 11310 01610
92635 82639 62446 42545 32649 11752
93062 83030 63016 43984 33906 13849 03815
9090580807 60808 40908 30909 11210 01610
90857 807466////
'.
40848 30950 10753
93049 83032 63020 43971 33928 13860 03799
90907 81008 61008 41008 11107 "11411 01510
93-229 83336 63345 43237 33039 13147
-,
.
AF967 0514 IRENE DB 06 COR 02 KMIA
AZIMUTH 32 DEG FLl00
93049 83023 63997 43954 33903 13849 03819
90906 80805 60806 41105 31307 11507 01410
93145 83159 62958 42980 32956 12937
93059 83048 63019 43989 33943 13876 03819
99706 80705 61005 41005 31208 11110 01410
90156 80154 63674 43568 30253 10147
RIGHT REAR QUAD MX080 09080" .
93064 83050 63004 43954 33895 13830 03820
9080780706 60808 40908 31208 11211 01509
91966 81980 61874 41853 31862 11841
.9306.7 83028 6399843951 33912 13833 03799
90806 80808 60808 4090931210 11311 01608
90851 80862 60855 4-0876 30751 10540
.
80
7 continued

AF964 0614 IRENE OB 06 CORKMIA
SUPPLEMENTA~RTEX DATA MESSAGE

AF972 0714 IRENE OB 07 COR KMIA
-

AZIMUTH 36 DEG :FLI00
93071 83050 63032 43013 33979 13947 03720
90805 8Q805 60907 40906 31005 11109 02008
9292l82937 63052 42358 32965 12949
RIGHT'FRONT QUAD MX062 04080
93024-83037 63967 43939 33886 13738 03720
90606 81010.60909 50808 31111 11511 02008
91360 01462 61256 41261 31141 19905
9304583015 63978 43938 33875 13787 03747
90807 80707 60807 41009 31208 11411 02009
90638 80242 60348 40354 30159 13538
93035 83999 63961 43909 3//// 1//// 03747
91103 81203 61206 41308 3/1// 1//// 02009
92358 82369 62371 42459 32562 12526
81
Table 7 continued.

AF966 0814 IRENE OB 09 COR 02 KMIA
93969 83941 63892 43862 33819 1//// 03807
90907 80808 60808 41111 31212 1//// 01212
93440 8//// 63525 43635 3//// 1////
93016 83984 6393843890 33874 13809 03807
9//05 80707 60908 41009 31212 11313 01212
92756 82766 62673 42684 32470 12423
93999 83933 6//// 43885 33820 1//// 03786
90808 80908 61108 41109 31010 1//// 01313
91868 81760 61753 41650 31340 1////
93954 83939 63908 43884 33866 13820 03786
90808 80808 60808 41010 30909 11111 01313
c'
91223 91220 61026 40522 30535 13635
.. 100NM INBND SFC WND 28065. 30NM OBND SFC WND 27085
KATRINA

AF963 0217 CYCLONE- OB 12 COR KMIA
LEFT REAR QUAD MX/ / / / / / / /
9//// 8//// 6//// 4//// 3//// 1.//// 03039
9//// 8//// 6//// 4//// 3//// 1//// 013//
9//// 7//// 6//.// 4//// 3//// 1////
93122 83116 63110 43108 33104 13086 03039
908// 808// 608// 409// 311// 109// 013//
92029 82331 62333 42629 32524 1////
93129 83113 43104 33088 13062 03053
908// 808// 608// 409// 309// 111// 011//
91540 81326 61128 41032 31734 10432
LEFT FRONT QUAD MXO16 27035
93112 83109 63107 43100 33098 13083 03053
909// 810// 611// 311// 112// 011//
90413 83615 63615 43515 30116 13612
82
7 continued.

AF972 0317 KATRINA OB 09 COR KMIA
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA ME~;SAGE
93117 83113 63108 43099 33090 13069 03039
90907 80907 61007 41009 310/ j' 109// 01408
91730 81725 61726 4/1/ / 3152~~ 11916
LEFT FRONT QUAD MX040 34050.93115-'83102
63093 :43084 3307~~ 13050 03022
91007 81106 61005 41007 30908 11010 01309
90932 80519 60326 40540 3043,' 1////
93112 83107 63088 43093 33083: 13040 03022
91105 81205 61205 41207 30901' 10907 01309
93115 83025 62919 43216 33623; 13350
93115 83111 63108 43092 33083; 13077 03011
90908 80908 60908 41007 30908; 10907 01509
92335 82050 61838 42221 32323, 12478
83
Table 8. Tropical Cyclone Rec~lnaissance Summary for 1981.
Requirements Levied Atlan,tic Eastern & Central Pacific
Cyclones 0
Invest 34 0
TOTAL 177 0
Requirements Accomplished Atlantic Eastern & Central Pacific
53 WRS (Cyclones/invest) 28/9 0/0

920 WRG (Cyclones/invest) 70/31 0/0
RFC (Cyclones/invest) 30/6 0/0
TOTAL128/46 0/0
Missions Flown
53 WRS 25 0
920 WRG 66 0
RFC 15 0
TOTAL 106 0
4. Flying Time (Hours) Atlantic Eastern & Central Pacific
53 WRS 242.3 0
920 WRG 650.7 0
RFC 138.3 0
TOTAL 1031.3 0
Observations Horizontal1558 Vertical 58
Three unaccomplished requirements.

Does not include ferry missions or flying time.
84
1.
5.
143
2.
3.

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ANNUAL DATA AND VERIFICATION TABULATION

National Hurricane Center

Thi~ is the eighth report of an annual series prepared by the

N~tionaL Hurricane Center (NHC) to provide a source of summarized data

on Atlantic tropical cyclones. It will not duplicate the narrative overview

continue to be published in the Monthly Weather Review.

In addition to data supplied by the National Weather Service,

(NESS) Miami Office, and the CARCAH(Chief Aerial Reconnaissance Coordination,

The following tropical cyclone prediction models were used at the

National Hurricane Center for forecasting motion on an operational basis:

1.. NHC-67 (Miller, Hill, Chase, 1968). A stepwise screening

regression model using predictors derived from the current

persistence during the early forecast periods.

2. SANBAR {Sanders and Burpee, 1968). A filtered barotropic

model using input data derived from the 1000 to 100 mb

pressure weighted winds. The model requires use of "bogus"

data in data-void areas. The system was modified by Pike

conform to the current storm motion.

HURRAN (Hope and Neumann, 1970). An analog system using as

as data base the tracks of all Atlantic tropical storms and

hurricanes dating back to 1886.

using the predictors derived from climatology and persistence.

NHC-72 (Neumann, Hope, Miller, 1972). A modified stepwise

multiple screening regression system which combines the NHC-67

concept and the CLIPER system into a single model

6. NHC-73 (Neumann and Lawrence, 1973). Similar in concept to the

output statistics) methods to introduce NMC (National Meteoro-

logical Center) numerical prognostic data into the prediction

7 NMC MFM MODEL, (Hovermale, 1975). A ten-level baroclinic model

coarser NMC fixed grid primitive equation (PE) model.

changes in knots at l2~hourly intervals out to 72 hours are generated by a

of the forecast equations was done by multiple screening regression techniques

comparable skill scores.

The National Hurricane Center uses the above models as guidance

in the formulation of its 'forecasts. The hurricane forecaster also makes

Center for Tropical Meteorology) in Miami.

displacement and the actual displacement computed from best-track positions.

made 24 hours prior to actual landfall, to the actual landfall point In

point to the nearest point on the forecast track

Tropical cyclone warning lead times for United States landfalling

the verification of tropical cyclone warning lead times, as well as verifi-

Data and Verification Tabulation (Lawrence, Hebert, and Staff, 1979)

A summary of. 1981 North Atlantic tropical and subtropical cyclone

statistics is given in Table 4. Tracks of 1981 named storms as well as the

November subtropical cyclone are shown in Figure 1.

storm average errors

in chronological order, and include those obtained by aerial reconnaissance

penetrations, satellite (Miami SFSS), and land-based radar. The legend

precedes the initial table

Supplementary Vortex Data Messages which replaced Vortex Profiles

paths flo~ in obtaining these Data Messages is given in Figure 2. The

symbolic code for interpreting the Data Messages is given as Appendix A.

Table 8 is an aerial reconnaissance summary for the 1981 season.

cyclones and the subtropical cyclone are presented in Figure 3.

Daily SMS-2 and GOES-S satellite photographs of 1981~amed tropical

cyclones and the subtropical cyclone are shown in Figure 4

the center fixes in chronological order and performed other miscellaneous

tasks; Dr. Joseph Pelissier, who computed the verification statistics;

Hope, J. R., and C. J. Neumann, 1970: "An Operational Technique for

Hovermale, J. B., and R. E. Livezey, 1977: "Three-Year Performance

Miller, B. T., E. C. Hill and P. P. Chase, 1968: "Revised Technique for

Neumann, C. J., 1972: "An Alternative to the HURRANTropical Cyclone