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Introduction
Global energy consumption in the last half-century has increased very rapidly and is expected to continue
to grow over the next 50 years. However, we expect to see significant differences between the last 50 years
and the next. The past increase was stimulated by relatively “cheap” fossil fuels and increased rates of
industrialization in North America, Europe, and Japan, yet while energy consumption in these countries
continues to increase, additional factors have entered the equation making the picture for the next 50
years more complex. These additional complicating factors include the very rapid increase in energy
intensity of China and India (countries representing about a third of the world’s population); the
expected depletion of oil resources in the not-too-distant future; and, the global climate change. On the
positive side, the renewable energy (RE) technologies of wind, biofuels, solar thermal, and photovoltaics
(PV) are finally showing maturity and the ultimate promise of cost competitiveness.
Statistics from the International Energy Agency (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2004 show that the total
primary energy demand in the world increased from 5536 MTOE in 1971 to 10,345 MTOE in 2002,
representing an average annual increase of 2% (see Figure 1.1 and Table 1.1).
Of the total primary energy demand in 2002, the fossil fuels accounted for about 80% with oil, coal
and natural gas being 35.5, 23, and 21.2%, respectively. Biomass accounted for 11% of all the primary
energy in the world, almost all of it being traditional biomass in the developing countries which is used
very inefficiently.
The last 10 years of data for energy consumption from British Petroleum (BP) Corp. also shows that
the average increase per year is 2%. However, it is important to note (from Table 1.2) that the average
worldwide growth from 2001 to 2004 was 3.7% with the increase from 2003 to 2004 being 4.3%. The rate
of growth is rising mainly due to the very rapid growth in Asia Pacific which recorded an average increase
from 2001 to 2004 of 8.6%.
More specifically, China increased its primary energy consumption by 15% from 2003 to 2004.
Unconfirmed data show similar increases continuing in China, followed by increases in India. Fueled by
high increases in China and India, worldwide energy consumption may continue to increase at rates
between 3 and 5% for at least a few more years. However, such high rates of increase cannot continue for
too long. Various sources estimate that the worldwide average annual increase in energy consumption for
1-1
12,000
0
1971 2002
Year
FIGURE 1.1 World primary energy demand (MTOE). (Data from IEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy
Agency, Paris, France, 2004.)
the next 25 years will be 1.6%–2.5% (IEA 2004; IAEA 2005). The Energy Information Agency (EIA), U.S.
Department of Energy projects an annual increase of 2% from now until 2030 (Figure 1.2).
Based on a 2% increase per year (average of the estimates from many sources), the primary energy
demand of 10,345 MTOE in 2002 will double by 2037 and triple by 2057. With such high-energy demand
expected 50 years from now, it is important to look at the available resources to fulfill the future demand,
especially for electricity and transportation.
Source: Data from IEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2004.
This data does not include traditional biomass which was 2229 MTOE in 2002, according to IEA data.
Source: Data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006.
Quadrillion Btu
800
History Projections 722
665
613
600 563
510
421
400 347 366
309
283
200
20
25
30
80
85
90
95
03
10
15
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
Sources: History: Energy Information Administration (EIA),
International Energy Annual 2003 (May-July 2005), web site
www.eia.doe.gov/iea/. Projections: EIA, System for the Anal-
ysis of Global Energy Markets (2006).
FIGURE 1.2 Historical and projected energy consumption in the world. (From EIA, Energy Information Outlook
2006, Energy Information Agency, U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC, 2006.)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1971 2002 2010 2030
Power generation Other transformation Transport
Industry Other
FIGURE 1.3 Sectoral shares in world primary energy demand. (From IEA, World Energy Outlook, International
Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2004.)
Nuclear, 15.80%
Coal, 40.10%
Renewables, Hydro, 15.90%
17.60%
Combustible
renewables and
waste, 1.00%
Oil, 6.90% Gas, 19.40% Other renewables,
0.70%
FIGURE 1.4 World electricity production by fuel in 2003. (From IEA, Renewables Information 2005, International
Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2005.)
electricity in the world. However, the RE technologies of wind power and solar energy have vastly
improved in the last two decades and are becoming more cost effective. As these technologies mature and
become even more cost competitive in the future they may be in a position to replace major fractions of
fossil fuels for electricity generation. Therefore, substituting fossil fuels with RE for electricity generation
must be an important part of any strategy of reducing CO2 emissions into the atmosphere and combating
global climate change.
China
OECD North America
OECD Europe
Other Asia
Transition economies
OECD Pacific
Africa
India
Other Latin America
Middle East
Brazil
Indonesia
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
GW
Under construction Planned Additions needed by 2030
Source: IEA analysis. Data for plants under construction and planning are from Platts (2003).
FIGURE 1.5 Electrical capacity requirements by region. (From IEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy
Agency, Paris, France, 2004.)
100
80
Percent
60
40
20
0
1971 1980 1990 2002
FIGURE 1.6 Share of transport in global oil demand and share of oil in transport energy demand. (Data and
Forecast from IEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2004.)
1.2.1 Transportation
Transportation is another sector that has increased its relative share of primary energy. This sector has
serious concerns as it is a significant source of CO2 emissions and other airborne pollutants—and it is
almost totally based on oil as its energy source (Figure 1.6). In 2002, the transportation sector accounted
for 21% of all CO2 emissions worldwide. An important aspect of future changes in transportation
depends on what happens to the available oil resources, production, and prices. At present 95% of all
energy for transportation originates from oil. Since oil production is expected to peak in the near future,
there is an urgent need for careful planning for an orderly transition away from oil as the primary
transportation fuel. An obvious replacement for oil would be biofuels, such as ethanol, methanol,
biodiesel, and biogases. Hydrogen is another alternative which has been claimed by some to be the
ultimate answer as they propose a “hydrogen-based economy” to replace the present “carbon-based
economy” (Veziroglu and Barbir 1994). However, other analysts (Kreith and West 2004; Hammerschlag
and Mazza 2005; West and Kreith 2006) dispute this based on the infrastructure requirements of
hydrogen, and the lower efficiency of hydrogen vehicles as compared to hybrid or fully electric vehicles.
Electric transportation presents another viable alternative to the oil-based transportation (West and
Kreith 2006). Already hybrid-electric automobiles are becoming popular around the world as petroleum
becomes more expensive. Complete electric transportation will require development of long-range and
long-life batteries. However, any large-scale shift to electric transportation will require large amounts of
additional electrical generation capacity.
TABLE 1.3 2003 Fuel Shares in World Total Primary Energy Supply
Source Share (%)
Oil 34.4
Natural Gas 21.2
Coal 24.4
Nuclear 6.5
Renewables 13.3
Source: Data from IEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency,
Paris, France, 2004.
combined with hydroelectric resources provided more than 50% of all the primary energy in Africa,
29.2% in Latin America, and 32.7% in Asia (Table 1.4). However, biomass is used very inefficiently for
cooking in these countries. Such use has also resulted in significant health problems, especially
for women.
The total share of all renewables for electricity production in 2002 was about 17%, a vast majority
(89%) of it being from hydroelectric power (Table 1.5).
Liquid biomass
1%
Renewable municipal
Waste
0.7%
Geothermal
3.1% Gas from biomass
0.7%
Solar, Tide
0.3%
Combustible
Solid
renewables
Hydro biomass/charcoal
and Waste
16.2% 77.5%
79.9%
Wind
0.4%
FIGURE 1.7 2003 Resource shares in world renewable energy supply. (Data from IEA, World Energy Outlook,
International Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2004.)
TABLE 1.4 Share of Renewable Energy in 2003 Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) on a Regional Basis
MTOE
Source: Data from IEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency, Paris,
France, 2004.
Table 1.6 summarizes the resource potential and the present costs and the potential future costs for
each renewable resource.
1.0
Iceland
Italy United States
Finland
0.9 France Belgium
Argentina Singapore
Hungary
Slovak Republic
0.8
Russia
Brazil Ukraine
0.7
Gabon
HDI
0.6
Zimbabwe
0.5
Nigeria
0.4
Mozambique
0.3
0.2
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000
Per capita energy consumption (kgoe/capita)
FIGURE 1.8 Relationship between human development index and per capita energy use, 1999–2000. (From UNDP,
World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability, 2004.)
of three between the U.S.A. and some European countries with almost the same level of human
development index. Even taking just the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) European countries combined, the per capita energy consumption in the U.S.A. is twice as much.
It is fair to assume that the per capita energy of the U.S.A could be reduced to the level of OECD Europe of
4.2 kW by a combination of energy efficiency improvements and changes in the transportation
infrastructure. This is significant because the U.S.A. uses about 25% of the energy of the whole world.
FIGURE 1.9 Per capita energy use by region (commercial and non-commercial) 2000. (From UNDP, World Energy
Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability, 2004.)
The present per capita energy consumption in the U.S.A is 284 GJ which is equivalent to about 9 kW
per person while the average for the whole world is 2 kW. The Board of Swiss Federal Institutes of
Technology has developed a vision of a 2 kW per capita society by the middle of the century (UNDP 2004).
The vision is technically feasible. However, to achieve this vision will require a combination of increased
R&D on energy efficiency and policies that encourage conservation and use of high-efficiency systems. It
will also require some structural changes in the transportation systems. According to the 2004, World
Energy Assessment by UNDP, a reduction of 25%–35% in primary energy in the industrialized countries is
achievable cost effectively in the next 20 years, without sacrificing the level of energy services. The report
also concluded that similar reductions of up to 40% are cost effectively achievable in the transitional
economies and more than 45% in developing economies. As a combined result of efficiency improvements
and structural changes, such as increased recycling, substitution of energy intensive materials, etc., energy
intensity could decline at a rate of 2.5% per year over the next 20 years (UNDP 2004).
7000
6000
5000
MTOE
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Other
FIGURE 1.10 (See color insert following page 19-52.) World primary energy demand by fuel types. (According to
IEA, World Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency, Paris, France, 2004.)
1,600 Geothermal
Other
renewables
1,400 Solar thermal
(heat only)
Primary energy use (EJ/a)
1,200
Solar power
1,000 (photovoltaics
and solar thermal
generation)
800
Wind
600
Blomass
(advanced)
400 Blomass
(traditional)
Hydroelctricity
200 Nuclear power
Gas
Coal
0 Oil
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
FIGURE 1.11 The global energy mix for year 2050. (According to WBGU, World in Transition—Towards
Sustainable Energy Systems, German Advisory Council on Global Change, Berlin, 2003.)
On the other hand, the German Advisory Council on global change (WBGU) estimates that as much
as 50% of the world’s primary energy in 2050 will come from RE, (Figure 1.11). However to achieve that
level of RE use by 2050 and beyond will require worldwide effort on the scale of a global Apollo Project.
Defining Terms
MTOE: Mega tons of oil equivalent; 1 MTOE Z 4:1868 ! 104 TJ ðTerra JoulesÞ
Z 3:968 ! 1013 BTU
GTOE: Giga tons of oil equivalent and 1 GTOE Z 1000 MTOE
Quadrilion Btu: 1015 British thermal units or Btu;
also known as Quad; 1 Btu Z 1055 J
References
BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006.
EIA 2006. International Energy Outlook 2006. Energy Information Agency, U.S. Department of Energy,
Washington, DC. Website: http://eia.doe.gov
Hammererschlag, R. and Mazza, P. 2005. Questioning hydrogen. Energy Policy, 33, 2039–2043.
IAEA. 2005. Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates to 2030. Reference data Series No. 1, July
2005.
IEA 2004. World Energy Outlook. International Energy Agency, Paris, France.
IEA 2005. Renewables Information 2005. International Energy Agency, Paris, France.
Kreith, F. and West, R. E. 2004. Fallacies of a hydrogen economy. JERT, 126, 249–257.
UNDP. 2004. World Energy Assessment: Energy and the Challenge of Sustainability. United Nations
Development Program, New York, NY.
Veziroglu, T. N. and Barbir, F. 1992. Hydrogen: The wonder fuel. International Journal of Hydrogen
Energy, 17(6), 391–404.
WBGU 2003. World in Transition—Towards Sustainable Energy Systems. German Advisory Council
on Global Change, Berlin. Report available at http://www.wbgu.de
West, R. E. and Kreith, F. 2006. A Vision for a Secure Transportation System without Hydrogen. ASME
Journal of Energy Resources Technologies, 128, 236–243.