Fortis Webinar April 2010

Webinar Series
Outlook of Global Oil & Gas
April 14th 2010

Merchant Banking | Energy, Commodities & Transportation | 2
Disclaimer
§ No warranty can be given by Fortis Bank Nederland (FBN), either explicitly or

implicitly, regarding the reasonableness, correctness or completeness of the
information, forecasts and assumptions contained in these pages. The information
provided is subject to change. This presentation and the information contained
herein in no way replace any formal reporting. Investment considerations should
continue to be based on periodical reporting and other information FBN is required
to disclose by law or stock exchange regulations
§ Certain of the statements contained herein may be statements of future

expectations and other forward-looking statements that are based on
management’s current views and assumptions as well as on partial information
and involve a certain degree of risk and uncertainty that could cause actual results
or performance to differ materially from those expressed or implied in such
statements. Actual results or performance may differ materially from those
contained in such statements due to general economic conditions, market
conditions, changes in laws and regulations, general competitive factors and other
factors not specified here
Agenda
1. Introduction Fortis Bank Nederland / ABN AMRO

Harris Antoniou; CEO of Energy, Commodities & Transportation
2. Oil and Gas Market fundamentals

Bruno Gremez; Managing Director of Energy Commodities
3. Oil Services Industry

Marius Messer; Managing Director of Energy
4. Impact on Tanker Market

Gust Biesbroeck; Managing Director of Transportation
5. Trends in Financing
Fortis has a long track record the ECT Industries
Energy Commodities Transportation Principal Finance

Clients active from Clients active in: Clients active in: § Direct investments
upstream to § Agri § Deep sea shipping activities in ECT
distribution: § Metals industry industries
§ Offshore Oil (field) § Portfolio of assets
§ Energy § Intermodal
and Gas services in projects related
§ Oil & Gas to and companies
active in these
assets
Leading experts in (Offshore) Oil field services,
Commodities and Shipping
…and we are moving forward fast
§ Market leader in the Netherlands

One bank with in wholesale banking
AMBITIONS
without
§ International network with
PRETENTIONS activities in 25 countries
In the year ahead we will

§ A leading position in specific
work together to create
sectors/services, such as Energy,
a new, strong Dutch bank
Commodities & Transportation
under the brand name and Brokerage, Clearing &
ABN AMRO Custody
ECT presence - Where our clients lead us
Oslo
London Amsterdam
Rotterdam
New York
* Athens
Dubai Hong Kong
Singapore
Sao Paolo
Over 200 specialists globally with long term ECT expertise
* Representative office scheduled to open June

Agenda




Oil and Gas Market Fundamentals • Introduction
Oil
§ Days of ‘cheap’ oil are gone
§ Balanced Supply vs. Demand up to 2013
§ Primary Risk thereafter: Supply Shortfall
Gas
§ Days of ‘cheap’ gas are here
§ US shale gas technology changes the global

game
§ Gas’ potential to capture market share given

lower costs and lower carbon footprint
§ Easily accessible reserves growing

Silent revolution in oil consumption
OECD vs Non-OECD World Oil Consumption Oil consumption

§ Since 1970 global per capita oil
100% consumption constant at ~2
Non-OECD OECD litres/day
90%
80%
§ But while OECD consumption has
fallen, non-OECD consumption has
70% almost tripled to <1 litre/day.
60%
• Note: High population growth in
Non-OECD amplifies this growth
50%
§ Shrinking OECD demand v. growing
40% non-OECD demand – this is the
30%
long-term dynamic for oil
20%
10%
0% Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)

1970 2010 2030
Two contrasting worlds of oil demand
Global crude oil demand by region, Mln b/d Oil consumption

§ Global crude oil demand during
100 2005-2010 increased by 3.1 million
OECD Non-OECD barrels per day (bpd).
90
§ But OECD & Europe demand fell by
80 4.3m bpd
§ Non-OECD demand increased by
70
7.4m bpd
60 • China up 2.4m bpd (•36%)
• Middle East up 1.6m bpd (•27%)
50 • other Asia up by 1.6m bpd
(•18%)
40 • Latin America up by 1.2m bpd
(•24%)
30
§ All this demand growth against a
20 background of a 73% increase in the
oil price (in dollars, but also
10 measured in the broader
SDR/barrel).
0
2005 2010 Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
OECD: Recent historical demand Non-OECD
OECD
North American Oil Demand European Oil Demand OECD Pacific Oil Demand
26,0 16,3 8,8

Million b/d Million b/d Million b/d
25,5 15,8 8,6
25,0 10% 8% 8,4 12%
15,3
24,5 8,2
14,8
24,0 8,0
14,3
23,5 7,8
23,0 13,8
7,6
22,5 13,3 7,4
22,0 12,8 7,2
2005 2009 2005 2009 2005 2009
§ Demand has generally fallen across all product § Transport fuels (gasoline, jet fuel, diesel)
categories. The largest percentage decline in dominating, but under pressure from legislation
residual fuel oil, mainly used for power generation – (higher fuel taxes, carbon emissions’ controls);
and the category most easily substitutable by other changes in vehicle technology; and market
fuels, e.g. gas. saturation (slower demographic growth).
Source: IEA
OECD: Short term projections demand Non-OECD
OECD
North American Oil Demand European Oil Demand OECD Pacific Oil Demand
24,0 15,0 7,8

Million b/d Million b/d Million b/d
1% 3% 7,6
14,5
23,5 7,4 13%
14,0 7,2
23,0 7,0
13,5 6,8
22,5 6,6
13,0
6,4
22,0 12,5 6,2
2009 2013 2009 2013 2009 2013
§ North America sees large declines in chemical § OECD Pacific sees declines across the board but
demand and fuel oil, but modest gains in others, largest in kerosene as used for heating, and
including motor gasoline. residual fuel oil in power generation.
§ Europe sees large declines in motor gasoline on § In total, these regions see consumption decline
continuing trend of switching to diesel, but gains in by 1 million bpd on 2009.
jet and kerosene Source: IEA
Non-OECD Demand & ST Projections
China Other Asia Middle East Latin America Africa
8,8 22% 10,5 13% 7,7 18% 6,5 17% 3,5 9%

8,3 10,0 7,2
6,0
7,8 9,5 3,0
6,7
7,3 5,5
9,0
6,8 6,2
8,5 5,0
6,3 2,5
5,7
8,0
5,8
5,2 4,5
5,3 7,5
4,8 7,0 4,7 4,0 2,0

2005 2009 2005 2009 2005 2009 2005 2009 2005 2009
Non-OECD OECD
§ Non-OECD demand had seen a continuous § If this trend continues then non-OECD demand is
increase over the past 5 years. likely to rise above 40m bpd by 2013 Source: IEA
World Oil Supply and Demand up to 2013
World Oil Supply and Demand mln / bpd Long-term Supply Crunch
The long-term supply crunch will be much more
95
apparent by 2013:
Demand
§ US Energy Information Agency forecasts global
Supply
demand at almost 90m bpd by 2013
90
§ Supply will struggle to meet this on current
extraction rates – previous peak extraction rate
85
87.2m bpd in July 2008 (when price hit record of
$147/barrel)
§ Current spare capacity (defined as that which
80
can be brought on-stream within 30 days and
sustained for 90 days) ~5m bpd
§ Price rise from current levels may not evoke
75 supply-side response, as main space capacity
lies in OPEC producers and they have already
dallied with policy that the oil is worth more ‘left in
the ground for the future’
70
2000 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 2012 Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
World Oil Supply by Region
World Oil Supply by Region mln / bpd
South America
Asia Pacific
Africa
North America
Europe & Eurasia
Middle East
World Supply Flat Lining

§ No new major cheap and easy oil discoveries § Currently around 10m bpd global capacity expansions
in past three decades. on the horizon from high cost sources such as
§ Universally accepted annual depletion rate is deepwater West Africa, Gulf of Mexico, Brazil and
4.7%/year, so total annual capacity lost is Canada oilsands. But these will not emerge by 2013.
around 4m bpd of current total liquids § Price probably required to justify development of these
production of ~84.5m bpd. resources: ~$110/barrel. Source: IEA
Why Oil Supply will struggle to keep up with

Demand 1/2
Declining - US Declining / Stable – South America

§ Supply declining steadily over past three § Declining output in biggest producer,
decades and no new major discoveries likely. Venezuela, which needs massive investment
§ Canada oilsands currently have extraction to recover previous output levels.
costs of $85-$95/barrel. § Mexico’s output also threatened without
§ Obama administration now permitted the first substantial new investment.
offshore drilling outside the Gulf of Mexico for § Current price level ought to be sufficient to
more than 20 years but remains unclear how encourage new investment – Venezuela and
much ‘new’ oil there may be and at what cost. Mexico e.g. have extraction costs at ~
$30/barrel – but politics is getting in the way.
Declining – Europe & Eurasia Stable – Asia Pacific

§ Structural decline in North Sea output – all the § Asia Pacific region supply growth has been
low-hanging fruit has been picked. sluggish for the past two decades and we
§ Russia’s problems are well-known – under- suspect that there are few major oil resources
investment for years, and access to new fields to be discovered here.
is difficult and expensive. § Asia Pacific has peaked most likely.
Why Oil Supply will struggle to keep up with

Demand 2/2
Uncertain – Middle East Potential – Africa

§ What happens in Iraq will be crucial. It’s got § Much potential, but high risk.
some of the world’s cheapest oil to produce – § Supply issues hang over all African output.
and a lot of it.
§ Nigeria remains under-performing due to
§ Estimates vary widely but industry consensus political risk.
is Iraq may have ~100 billion barrels of
recoverable oil. § Other producers and potential producers
suffering from under-investment.
§ If it can raise its output from the current 2.5m
bpd to more than 12m bpd then this would
change the game. Concluding
§ But those extra 10.5m bpd will – with the best § The most likely scenario is that demand will
will in the world – not start to appear until significantly outgrow supply by 2013
2017 at the earliest. A realistic assumption
must be output of ~4m bpd by 2013. § Supply can not adjust fast enough due to cost
issues, investment issues, geopolitical factors
and simply time before output can be
increased.
§ Alternatives are needed to provide a solution
for the supply – demand imbalance.
World Gas Supply
World Gas Supply By Region billion/cm Reserves Rising Fast

§ World output has been on rising
3500
North America S. & Cent. America trend for past three decades.
Europe & Eurasia Middle East
3000 § Big question marks over precise
Africa Asia Pacific
level of global reserves but ‘fracking’
– hydro-fracturing of rock and shale,
2500 a technology that’s been around
since 1940 – combined with new
2000
3-D seismic imaging is changing the
game in the US today, and will
change it around the world
1500 tomorrow.
§ BP now estimates proved natural

1000 gas reserves globally have risen to
1.2 trillion boe (barrels of oil
500 equivalent), enough for 60 years’
consumption at current rates – and
are rising very fast.
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
World Gas Supply by Region 1/2
US - supply rising fast South America - Major supply growth area

§ Consensus that at current rates of production § Hosting reserves almost equalling those of North
and consumption the US has sufficient proved America, South America has become the fasted
gas reserves for a century. growing natural gas energy provider.
§ Shale gas discoveries so far made will extend § Concerns over pipeline security has encouraged
that by several decades. development of LNG plants.
§ US may switch from being net natgas importer to § Demand growth, at 2.4% per year – largely
net exporter within the 2010-2013 timeframe. driven by Brazil – will provide a ceiling for natural
§ Consensus: shale gas production is commercially gas exports to international markets.
viable even at prices less than $4/mMBTU. § Need to diversify from hydropower drive demand.
Africa - Output to grow 33% ME - Big potential for raising production

§ Soaring supply growth from Egypt and Nigeria § ME region has more than 40% of known global
will drive total African output. gas reserves but still only 12% of production.
§ Nigerian supply to expand rapidly. Current § Biggest LNG producer, Qatar, currently with
reserve estimates indicate that Nigerian natural annual output capacity of ± 30 mln mt.
gas reserves exceed those of Algeria, but its § Region well positioned geographically, financially
output is a currently a third. and industrially to spearhead LNG marketing.
World Gas Supply by Region 2/2
Europe - Russian control EU market slipping? Asia - The lure of Asia

§ Gas is ceasing to be a national/regional § China currently uses gas for just 4.5% of its
market and becoming a genuinely global one. primary energy demand. As environmental
§ Hence Gazprom’s decision to put on hold concerns become more important to Beijing
development of its massive Shtokman field there will be a drift away from coal-fired
(until 2016) – partly explained by US shale electricity generation to more gas (and
gas revolution, which is diminishing demand nuclear).
for Russian (and other) LNG. § Asia becoming prime target for Atlantic basin
§ Gazprom maintains that its share of gas – its exports to Asia were non-existent a
European supply will rise from current 25% to decade ago but now account for about 12%
30% over current decade. This doubtful as of total Atlantic basin output.
more (and cheaper) LNG will be taken by EU § Asian gas prices today about 50% lower than
market. Gazprom’s share of European market what they were two years ago and likely to
slowly declining, if the shale gas revolution stay low for several years as a consequence
succeeds in gaining pace. of global gas glut.
Agenda




E&P Spending – Uncertain Recovery
World Oil Supply and Demand
§ Historically, E&P spending correlates with oil price development.

§ Surge of spending since 2005 however mainly caused by
prolonged period of underinvestment.
§ E&P spending seems now mainly driven by reserve-replacement
considerations of oil majors as well as strategic considerations of
National Oil Companies.
§ Although global oil demand decreased in 2009, US EIA forecasts
global demand at almost 90 mb/d by 2013 with an increase of
1.8% per annum in the coming two yrs, with China and India as Source: BP
95
the drivers. Such growth remains however heavily dependable on Demand
the global economic rebound. 90
Supply
§ Supply will struggle to meet this demand growth on current

extraction rates – previous extraction rate peaked at 87m bpd in 85
July 2008 when price hit record of USD 147 / barrel.

80
§ Current spare capacity is estimated to be approximately 5 mln
bpd. 75
§ Main part of the spare capacity lies with OPEC producers, but 70
these consider oil worth more ‘left in the ground for the future’. 2000 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 2012
Source: EIA and VM Group
Offshore Oil & Gas becomes more important
Offshore Expenditures and Production

§ Offshore oil production accounts for approximately
33%
of global production. Deepwater offshore oil
production accounts for about 7% of total
production. This percentage will grow to 10% in
2012.
§ Global offshore oil & gas expenditures (Capex and
Opex) will continue its strong growth in the coming Source: Douglas Westwood
three years from this year’s ~ USD 250 billion to ~
USD 350 billion in 2013.
§ Future deepwater investment is estimated at USD
125 bio for the coming 4 years.
§ Main areas of activity for the deepwater segment
are West Africa and Latin America.
Source: EnergyFiles, Douglas Westwood

Offshore Drilling: Trends Deepwater Floater Market
§ Refers to semi-submersibles and drillships with Global Deepwater Devolopment 2003-2013 No/rigs
rated water depths >3,000 ft. mostly modern,
high specification units.
§ No attritions in the past 6 years and average Source: ODS Petrodata Ltd.
age of fleet of around 16 years. Most of the
older units have undergone substantial life-
extension work.
§ Although utilisation has remained stable, around
96%, day rates have not been as robust.
Average rates have dropped from USD 530,000
p.d. around USD 350,000 per day for new
fixtures. Av. Fixture Day Rates Deepwater Floaters USD
§ High number of newbuild scheduled deliveries
without firm contracts indicate that accumulated
availabilty can increase substantially over the
next few years.
Source: ODS Petrodata Ltd.

Offshore Drilling: Trends in Midwater Floater Market
§ The global midwater floater fleet (rigs and Global Midwater Floaters Ages 03/’10 x100 No/rigs
drillships with rated water depths of <3,000
ft) currently stands at around 100 units.
§ Utilisation rates for midwater floaters has
fallen from over 90% during 2006 to end
2008, but has recently picked up somewhat
and currently stands at 83% of total supply.
§ The market trend over the past 12-15
months has been characterized by few
fixtures and falling rates, even though
utilisation has rebounded slightly.
Av. Fixture Day Rates Midwater Floaters USD
§ Average of the units in service is almost 30
years. Still attrition is not expected due to
substantial capital investment in upgrades
and conversions.
§ Conversion to other offshore roles such as
accomodation or production may be a
viable option for rig owners and may take
some of the overhang out of the market
Offshore Drilling: Main trends in the Jackup Market
§ The global jackup fleet currently Global Distribution of Jackups 03/2010

consists of around 460 jackups. More
than 60 units are planned, on order or
under construction, for delivery the next
three years.
§ Average age of the global jackup fleet
is more than 25 years.
§ Substantial number of jackups currently
passive, with 107 jackups stacked, Source: ODS Petrodata Ltd.
whereof 57 rigs have been taken out of Global Jackups Age 03/2010 459 units/No/rigs
the market on a semi-permanent basis
(cold-stacked)
§ Average utilisation rate has dropped
from >90% in mid-2008 to the current
level of around 74% of the total fleet.
§ Oversupply spurring oil companies to
”cherry pick”, favorising modern units
vs. older units. This is reflected in
utilisation rate differentials.

Main Trends in the Jackup Market Cont’d
§ Rate for premium jackups has fallen from Av. Fixture Day Rates - Jackups USD
USD 225,000 p.d. at the peak of the market
to current level of USD 120-125,000 p.d.
§ Substantial newbuild deliveries combined
with roll-off from existing contracts expected
to create supply pressure in the short term...
§ ... but leading offshore brokerage houses
believe that the market has bottomed out. Source: ODS Petrodata Ltd.
§ There has been a recent pickup in activity,

although rates have not followed. A
utilisation rate of around 90% is required Global Jackup Development 2003-2013 units/No/rigs
before any significant increase in rates can
be expected.
§ A strengthening of the oil prices and
economic recovery in the major economies
will have a positive impact on day rates as
oil companies increase production volumes
and exploration activities to meet growing
demand.
Floating production: going deeper….
Floating
80 Production Systems Order Backlog Av. Water Depth for Floating Production System
70
1200
60
1000
50
800
40
600
30
400
20
10 200
0 0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000 2005 2010 On Order
§ There has been a strong increase in order backlog § Major and recent discoveries have been in
at the peak of the cycle on the back of the oil price increasing water depth
development § This leads to a significant increase in costs for
§ Order backlog included various speculative orders the development of such fields
§ Significant number of failures with speculative § Strong dependency on very specialised
participants due to unavailability of contract awards installation equipment and deepwater rig
and consequently lack of funding availability for development throughout the field
§ FPSO contract awards slowly picking up (late ’09) lifes Source: IMA (March 2010)
…. and getting more expensive
§ Over the past years, we have seen a significant cost inflation per FPSO unit due to the
increase in general complexity but also the increase in costs of all major components
An example:
§ In 2003, a simple FPSO would cost about USD 100 – 150 mln, a mid range FPSO
about USD 200-350 mln and a top specification FPSO would cost over USD 500 mln
§ In 2010, a simple FPSO would cost USD 150-200 mln, a mid range FPSO about USD
400-700 mln and a top specification FPSO approximately USD 1.2 bln
§ The return on capital for FPSO lease operators has been relatively low over the last
high cycle as the general cost increase exceeded the increase in lease tariffs
§ Furthermore, there have been a significant number of budget overruns and delays in
FPSO conversion and construction projects
§ Although the pricing for equipment and construction services has generally decreased
following the slump in oil prices after July 2008, the current cost of the units (and lack of
availability of financing) may shift the subtle balance between the lease or buy decision
by oil companies and contractors
The floating production market outlook
Floating Production Systems Fleet Floating Production Systems on Order

4%
7%
25%
9% FPSO Semis
TLP Spar Others
2%
18%
62% 9% 64%
Source: IMA (March 2010)
§ FPSO remains the predominant solution chosen for § FPSO will remain the preferred solution for offshore
offshore production production
• Less requirements for ancillary infrastructure § Remoteness of discoveries and very expensive
due to the availability of storage capacity access to infrastructure or inexistence of
• Faster delivery times, especially when infrastructure
conversion of old tankers § Proven track record
• Lower cost and great flexibility (large deck § Relative cost
space) § Development of natural gas production technology
• Easier redeployment
Agenda




Tanker Market: narrowing of supply – demand gap
Demand/Supply Crude Tankers Demand/Supply Product Tankers
§ The IEA have revised their forecast for global oil § Correspondingly, expected increase in product
demand upwards for both 2009 and 2010 based tanker demand estimated at 2.6% in 2010
on higher than expected non-OECD data. measured in terms of dwt, with the highest
§ Expected increase in crude tanker demand at a expected growth in the Aframax segment.
steady 2.6% in 2010 measured in terms of dwt, § Growth in 2010 will be mainly driven by demand
with the highest expected growth in the VLCC from China and India, whilst European demand is
segment, followed by Aframax. expected to remain subdued.
... As indicated by recent Tanker Market Trends
§ As the crude price contango has narrowed, Weekly

inventories in floating storage have declined à
Spot Rates
downward pressure on the tanker freight rates
in the shortterm due to reduced tonne-mile for Crude
demand and an oversupply of vessels. Carriers
§ Most noteworthy recent development is spot
fixture count for VLCCs in the AG surging to
levels not seen in the recent past, although
rates have softened since.
§ Downward pressure on MR and Handymax
rates caused by reductions in European and
US consumption of diesel and gasoline. In the Weekly
longer term, this could lead to development of Spot Rates
new long-haul routes from Europe.
for Clean
§ ’If recent inquiry statistic is indicative of future Carriers
demand, owners may indeed have reason for
optimism.’ RS Platou
Source RS Platou Oslo

Outlook for Supply side continues to improve
Tanker Market The Oil Tanker Fleet & Orderbook

§ VLCC and Panamax crude fleets set to
contract, whilst Suezmax and product tanker
fleet expected to have firm growth in 2010.
This raises questions of demand/supply
imbalances for the latter segments.
§ Chinese owners placing orders for larger-
sized tankers at domestic yards, reflecting
China’s goal of securing tonnage for oil
imports on Chinese flagged vessels.
§ Newbuilding prices still sliding somewhat
Removals of Crude Carriers 80,000 DWT +
downwards as shipyards seek to replenish
declining orderbooks.
§ Scepticism has increased over whether the
the planned phase-out of single-hulled
tankers will reach the expected levels....
§ ...but delivery slippage and cancellations may
still counteract massive fleet growth.
Source RS Platou Oslo

Values bottoming out with increased S&P activity
Second-hand Tanker Price index Second-hand Sales Volume
§ Second-hand market activity has increased, with § Recently reported sales mainly to Chinese and
majority of buyers seeking modern, quality tonnage. Greek buyers. We may expect developing
§ Increased buying interest for both crude and economies and oil trading countries to emerge as
product tankers and prices seem to be firming in key players in second hand tanker investments.
all segments, but…spread between buyers’ and § Number of IPOs successfully launched in U.S. and
sellers’ expectations is preventing closure of sales. new transactions announced, indicating increased
equity market appetite for tanker investments.
Agenda




Trends in Financing
Trends in Financing
§ Access to finance remains difficult and
cumbersome for some operators and borrowers
§ The lending behaviour and appetite of financial
institutions and banks that historically provided
capital to the Offshore and Shipping industries
changed considerably during the past 2 years.
§ Export Credit Agencies, such as Giek / Export
Finans and KEIC, offered great help in the
meantime but for how long?
§ Financial markets show improvements recently
but margins remain substantially higher than
pre-crisis levels. Key covenants, restrictions and
due diligence requirements remain vigorous
§ The rise of alternative funding?
Funding Gap: Investors Looking for Alternatives
Trends in asset backed finance Instead of traditional investments…

§ Many big players have significantly reduced activity § Institutional investors are reducing
§ Also driven by market forces in banking: exposure to traditional asset classes in
particular equity
• Increased capital costs
§ Very low yields on government bonds
• End of maturity mismatch play and recent sovereign concerns reduce
• Recapitalization costs their attractiveness
§ This takes at lending capacity out of the market.
Significant financing shortfall shipping example …investors are looking for:

70 § Long-term assets with a preference for
60 68.0 • higher yielding
There is a Annual Shortfall
50 big gap with
• Inflation protected
the expected
c. $13-30Bn • Low correlated risk
40
US$ Bn capacity in
30 the banking
20 market.
50.7 38.0
10
0
Est. Annual New Building Est. Annual
Financing Need ‘09-‘11 Lending Availability
Alternative Sources of Debt – Fortis’ Initiatives

Initiatives / Examples
Focus § Joint Bookrunner in €181 mln
Accelerated Bookbuilding offer.
Starting points § Debt funding (also
for SBM Offshore. Nov 2009
DCM) of Energy and
§ Use leadership Shipping Finance
position in ECT transactions
markets § JV with instit. investors in US$
§ Co-investments in 100 mln Newbuilding Tender
§ Find alternative, equity related Drilling Barge; FBN stake 23%;
innovative Shipping/Energy
June 2009
finance/equity asset-owning
solutions for our ventures § US$ 300 mln Private Placement
global clients and co-investment in shipping;
§ Capital raising for March 2010
§ Investor base from Fund structures in
FBN’s global network § QInvest: a mezzanine fund
Energy or
established by FBN and Qatari
Transportation sector
Investment bank.
Thank You
ECT contact details
Harris Antoniou Bruno Gremez Marius Messer Gust Biesbroeck

CEO of Energy, Managing Director of Managing Director of Managing Director of
Commodities & Energy Commodities Energy Transportation
Transportation
Fortis Bank Nederland Fortis Bank Nederland Fortis Bank Nederland Fortis Bank Nederland
Merchant Banking Merchant Banking Merchant Banking Merchant Banking
Tel +31(0)10 401 5151 Tel +31(0)20 527 4386 Tel +31(0)10 401 6377 Tel +31(0)10 401 9701
Harris.antoniou@nl.fortis.com Bruno.gremez@nl.fortis.com Marius.messer@nl.fortis.com Gust.biesbroeck@nl.fortis.com

Fortis Webinar April 2010

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Исходное описание:

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Fortis Webinar April 2010

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Webinar Series

Outlook of Global Oil & Gas

April 14th 2010

§ No warranty can be given by Fortis Bank Nederland (FBN), either explicitly or

§ Certain of the statements contained herein may be statements of future

1. Introduction Fortis Bank Nederland / ABN AMRO

2. Oil and Gas Market fundamentals

3. Oil Services Industry

4. Impact on Tanker Market

Fortis has a long track record the ECT Industries

Energy Commodities Transportation Principal Finance

…and we are moving forward fast

§ Market leader in the Netherlands

In the year ahead we will

ECT presence - Where our clients lead us

Dubai Hong Kong

Over 200 specialists globally with long term ECT expertise

* Representative office scheduled to open June

1. Introduction Fortis Bank Nederland / ABN AMRO

2. Oil and Gas Market fundamentals

3. Oil Services Industry

4. Impact on Tanker Market

Oil and Gas Market Fundamentals • Introduction

§ Balanced Supply vs. Demand up to 2013

§ Primary Risk thereafter: Supply Shortfall

§ US shale gas technology changes the global

§ Gas’ potential to capture market share given

§ Easily accessible reserves growing

Silent revolution in oil consumption

OECD vs Non-OECD World Oil Consumption Oil consumption

0% Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)

Two contrasting worlds of oil demand

Global crude oil demand by region, Mln b/d Oil consumption

OECD: Recent historical demand Non-OECD

26,0 16,3 8,8

OECD: Short term projections demand Non-OECD

24,0 15,0 7,8

Non-OECD Demand & ST Projections

China Other Asia Middle East Latin America Africa

8,8 22% 10,5 13% 7,7 18% 6,5 17% 3,5 9%

4,8 7,0 4,7 4,0 2,0

World Oil Supply and Demand up to 2013

World Oil Supply by Region

World Oil Supply by Region mln / bpd

World Supply Flat Lining

Why Oil Supply will struggle to keep up with

Declining - US Declining / Stable – South America

Declining – Europe & Eurasia Stable – Asia Pacific

Why Oil Supply will struggle to keep up with

Uncertain – Middle East Potential – Africa

World Gas Supply

World Gas Supply By Region billion/cm Reserves Rising Fast

§ BP now estimates proved natural

World Gas Supply by Region 1/2

US - supply rising fast South America - Major supply growth area

Africa - Output to grow 33% ME - Big potential for raising production

World Gas Supply by Region 2/2

Europe - Russian control EU market slipping? Asia - The lure of Asia

1. Introduction Fortis Bank Nederland / ABN AMRO

2. Oil and Gas Market fundamentals

3. Oil Services Industry

4. Impact on Tanker Market

E&P Spending – Uncertain Recovery