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Received on 12th February 2009

Revised on 5th November 2009

doi: 10.1049/iet-gtd.2009.0071

ISSN 1751-8687

power ﬂow and maximum entropy

J.F. Zhang1 C.T. Tse1 W. Wang2 C.Y. Chung1

1

Department of Electrical Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, People’s Republic of China

2

Department of Electrical Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, People’s Republic of China

E-mail: eejfzhang@gmail.com

Abstract: Methods of determination of voltage stability margin index had been well established. This study adopts

a new method to determine the probabilistic distribution of margin index taking into account the random

variations of bus loads. First, the probabilistic technique and the Jacobian method are combined to determine

the probabilistic characteristics of stability margins and nodal voltages at the maximum load points. Then,

according to these probabilistic characteristics, maximum entropy method is adopted to determine the

probabilistic distribution of stability margin. Last, the proposed method is investigated on two test systems

with random active and reactive loads. Monte Carlo simulations are used as a reference solution to evaluate

the accuracy of the proposed method.

used in probabilistic power ﬂow to determine the major

There is an increasing concern about modern power system investment on improving transmission system inadequacy

voltage stability particularly after some blackouts because of [3]. Probabilistic eigenvalue analysis considering multi-

voltage instability or collapse in different countries [1, 2]. operating conditions has been used to analyse and design

Several methods based on different models for voltage robust power system stabiliser (PSS) to improve the angular

stability analysis have been presented. Static voltage stability stability of power system [4, 5]. The results of the

analysis based on power ﬂow attracts researchers for its probabilistic load ﬂow have been used to assess voltage

simple and fast calculation. It regards the maximum load instability [6]. A new nodal loading model, called the

point as the critical point, or the so-called saddle-node hyper-cone model whose thickness represents the

bifurcation. Static voltage stability analysis can provide uncertainty of future loading, has been proposed for voltage

margin index for power system operators. Stability margin stability assessment of electric power system, and the

is the distance between the current operating point and the formulation of worst cases based on this model, as well as

maximum load point. Stability margin is a useful index related numerical methods, has been described in [7].

because it indicates how close the power system is to Sobierajski used the P – Q curve to estimate the probability

voltage collapse. of the critical voltage violation under the assumption that

active and reactive power at a given load bus are uniformly

Deterministic voltage stability analysis requires speciﬁc distributed [8]. Schellenberg proposed a cumulant-based

value for loads. In practice, the loads vary from time to method to solve a maximum loading problem incorporating

time. It is impossible to carry out conventional voltage a constraint on the maximum variance of the loading

stability study for every possible or probable combination of parameter [9]. This method takes advantage of some

bus loads because of the extremely large computational properties regarding saddle-node bifurcations to create a

effort required. Probabilistic methodology may be most linear mapping relationship between random bus loading

suitable to analyse the system uncertainties. Probabilistic variables and all other system variables so that the cumulants

analysis considering the uncertainties in loads, generation of system variables are evaluated and the probabilistic density

or network has been performed in literatures. The method function (PDF) of stability margin is obtained.

530 IET Gener. Transm. Distrib., 2010, Vol. 4, Iss. 4, pp. 530– 537

& The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2010 doi: 10.1049/iet-gtd.2009.0071

www.ietdl.org

This paper combines the probabilistic technique and the to obtain the solution of power ﬂow near the critical point.

Jacobian approach to determine the probabilistic The difﬁculty is overcome by introducing other parameter

characteristics of stability margin and nodal voltages at the and equation [12, 13]. This makes the power ﬂow Jacobian

maximum load points, and then applies the maximum non-singular at the voltage collapse point.

entropy technique to study the distribution of stability

margin considering the load variations. Entropy, a Although the continuation power ﬂow method can obtain

conception in information theory, is a measure of the critical point and stability margin without the calculation

uncertainty. An entropy application is to deal with problems difﬁculty near the critical point, this method only obtains an

involving the determination of unknown distributions but approximate solution and is time consuming.

with available information such as expected values or other

statistical functions [10, 11]. Like the cumulant method, 2.2 Non-linear programming method

maximum entropy method is a general method and is not

restricted to a special distribution. With the moments of The voltage collapse point is the maximum load point.

random variable of stability margin obtained in terms of Calculating the maximum load is represented as a static non-

probabilistic Jacobian approach, the distribution can be linear programming problem. The objective function is to ﬁnd

determined with maximum entropy. the maximum load factor with the constraints of power ﬂow

equations and other inequalities. The problem is presented as

This paper is arranged as follows. In Section 2, three

prevailed methods to obtain static voltage stability margin max l

are ﬁrst revealed. Probabilistic voltage stability margin and s:t: f (V ) lB S0 ¼ 0 (2)

its calculation are proposed in Section 3. The method of g h(V ) l

maximum entropy is introduced in Section 4. The

proposed probabilistic method is investigated on two test The equalities are the ac power ﬂow equations at different load

systems and the results are compared with Monte Carlo in level. The inequality constrains contain any variable limitations

Section 5. Section 6 gives conclusions. as well as reactive power limits of generators. The merit of this

method is that some constrains can be considered easily.

Static voltage stability analysis still attracts researchers’ attention A salient characteristic of the critical point is that the

for its simple calculation and intuition. This analysis regards Jacobian matrix J of power ﬂow equations is singular; J has

the maximum load point as the critical point. The distance a zero eigenvalue but the corresponding eigenvectors (left

between the current operating point and the maximum load and right) are non-zero.

point is called voltage stability margin. Methods to determine

the maximum load, such as continuation power ﬂow [12, Based on this property, the exact critical point of power

13], non-linear programming method [14, 15] and Jacobian system is directly obtained by solving the extended power

method [16, 17], have been used to obtain the saddle-node ﬂow equations as follows

bifurcation and stability margin. The pros and cons of these

methods are discussed as below. f (V ) lB S0 ¼ 0 (3a)

J TV w ¼ 0 (3b)

2.1 Continuation power ﬂow

The model is described as follows wT w 1 ¼ 0 (3c)

(1) eigenvalue and T stands for transpose. Equation (3a)

l0 l lcritical

describes the power ﬂow and (3b) and (3c) ensure the JV is

singular at the critical point. This method, also called point

where V is the vector of nodal voltages, B describes load of collapse method, is a particular case of non-linear

increases and S0 is the normal injection power vector programming method.

(including active and reactive power). l is the load factor.

l ¼ 0 corresponds to normal load level and l ¼ lcritical

corresponds to critical load level. 3 Stability margin assessment by

To access the critical point and stability margin, the iterative

probabilistic approach

calculation starts from a known solution, and the predictor and There are always uncertainties in power systems, such as the

corrector technique is used to obtain the subsequent solution at variations of loads and the generators outputs. In this paper,

different load levels. As the Jacobian matrix of power ﬂow loads are regarded as random variables. Based on the Jacobian

equations is singular at the maximum load point, it is difﬁcult approach mentioned in Section 2.3, the nodal voltages, the

IET Gener. Transm. Distrib., 2010, Vol. 4, Iss. 4, pp. 530 – 537 531

doi: 10.1049/iet-gtd.2009.0071 & The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2010

www.ietdl.org

left eigenvectors and hence stability margin are also random The expectation of (5) is expressed as (6)

variables.

For the sake of convenience, the Jacobian approach method F 1 (V 1 V 1 ,..., V 1 V n ,..., V n V 1 ,..., V n V n )

is combined with probabilistic method to determine the þ F 1 (DV1 DV1 ,..., DV1 DVn ,..., DVn DV 1 ,..., DVn DV n )

characteristics of stability margin. If the voltages in (3) are

expressed with rectangular coordinates, every expression is l B S 0 ¼ 0 (6a)

the second-order function of nodal voltage and left

eigenvector. Equation (3) can be represented as

F 2 (V 1 w

1 ,..., V 1 w

n ,..., V n w

1 ,..., V n w

n)

F 1 (V1 V1 , ... , V1 Vn , ... , Vn V1 , ..., Vn Vn ) lB S0 ¼ 0 (4a)

þ F 2 (DV1 Dw1 ,..., DV1 Dwn ,..., DVn Dw1 ,..., DVn Dwn )

¼0 (6b)

F 2 (V1 w1 , ... , V1 wn , ... , Vn w1 , ... , Vn wn ) ¼ 0 (4b)

F 3 (w 1 ,..., w

1w n ) þ F 3 (Dw1 Dw1 ,..., Dwn Dwn ) 1

nw

F 3 (w1 w1 , ..., wn wn ) 1 ¼ 0 (4c)

¼0 (6c)

elements of voltage vector and left eigenvector. S0 is As DVi DVj ¼ CVi Vj , DVi Dwj ¼ CVi wj , Dwi Dwj ¼ Cwi wj , (6)

composed of initial injections of active and reactive power can also be represented with covariance of random

PGj0 2 PLj0 and QGj0 2 QLj0 for j ¼ 1 to N. In this study, variances of nodal voltages and left eigenvector. With the

PLj0 and QLj0 are active and reactive power of load at bus j covariances, the means of nodal voltages, stability margin

and are random variables. PGj0 and QGj0 are active and and left eigenvector at critical point can be obtained by

reactive power of generator at bus j and are not random solving (6) with Newton – Raphson method.

variables. S0 is random vector. B describes load increase. In

this paper, B is expectation of S0 , that is B is composed Omitting the second-order terms of (5) and (6), the

by injections of active and reactive powers PGj0 P Lj0 and linearised relationships among nodal voltage V, stability

QGj0 QLj0 for j ¼ 1 to N. l stands for stability margin. At margin l, left eigenvector w and the nodal load S0 are

the critical point, the load at bus j can be represented by shown as

PLj ¼ PLj0 þ lP Lj0 and QLj ¼ QLj0 þ lQLj0 .

2 3 2 3

If (4) is expanded at the means of nodal voltages, stability DV DS0

margin, the left eigenvector and nodal injection J 4 Dw 5 ¼ 4 0 5 (7)

Dl 0

where

þ F 1 (DV1 V 1 ,..., DV1 V n ,..., DVn V 1 ,..., DVn V n )

þ F 1 (V 1 DV1 ,..., V n DV1 ,..., V 1 DVn ,..., V n DVn ) 2 3

@F 1

þ F 1 (DV1 DV1 ,..., DV1 DVn ,..., DVn DV1 ,..., DVn DVn ) 6 @V 0 B 7

6 V ¼V 7

6 @F

@F 2 7

lB DlB S0 DS0 ¼ 0 (5a) 6 2 0 7

J ¼6 7

6 @V V ¼V @w w¼w 7

6 7

4 @F 3 5

F 2 (V 1 w

1 ,..., V 1 w n ,..., V n w

1 ,..., V n w 0 0

n) @w w¼w

þ F 2 (DV1 w 1 ,..., DV1 w n ,..., DVn w 1 ,..., DVn w

n)

þ F 2 (V 1 Dw1 ,..., V 1 Dwn ,..., V n Dw1 ,..., V n Dwn ) The deviations from the means of random variables nodal

þ F 2 (DV1 Dw1 ,..., DV1 Dwn ,..., DVn Dw1 ,..., DVn Dwn ) voltage, left eigenvector and stability margin is obtained by

rearranging (7) as

¼0 (5b)

2 3 2 3

DV DS0

F 3 (w 1 ,..., w

1w n)

nw 4 Dw 5 ¼ J 1 4 0 5 (8)

þ F 3 (w

1 Dw1 ,..., w n Dwn ) Dl 0

þ F 3 (Dw1 w 1 ,..., Dwn w n)

þ F 3 (Dw1 Dw1 ,..., Dwn Dwn ) 1 ¼ 0 (5c) The covariances of random variables nodal voltage, left

532 IET Gener. Transm. Distrib., 2010, Vol. 4, Iss. 4, pp. 530– 537

& The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2010 doi: 10.1049/iet-gtd.2009.0071

www.ietdl.org

2 3 Entropy is a measure to tackle uncertainty. The entropy of a

C VV C Vw CV l PDF p(x) is deﬁned as [11]

6 7

C ¼ 4 C wV C ww C wl 5 ð

C lV C lw C ll H ¼ p(x) ln p(x) dx (11)

02 3 1

DS0

B6 7 C

¼ J 1 E @4 0 5 DST0 0 0 A(J 1 )T An application of entropy is to determine an unknown

0 distribution based on the principle of maximum entropy,

2 3 provided that expected values and its other statistical

C S0 S0 0 0 functions are given. The solution by maximum entropy, in

6 7

¼ J 1 4 0 0 0 5(J 1 )T (9) its general form [18], is

0 0 0 ð

max H ¼ p(x) ln p(x) dx

T ð

The nth moment for [ DV Dw Dl] is computed

from (8). As a result, the nth moment for s:t: E{wn (x)} ¼ wn (x)p(x) dx ¼ mn , n ¼ 0, . . . , N

[V w l]T can be obtained using following equation

(12)

X

n1

r where m0 ¼ 1,w0(x) ¼ 1 and wn(x),n ¼ 1, . . . , N are N

E(X n ) ¼ (X )n þ (DX )n þ Cnr X (DX )nr (10)

r¼1

known functions, and mn , n ¼ 1, . . . , N are N given

expectation data. The classical solution of this problem is

given by

The probabilistic characteristics of critical points can be

described by probabilistic characteristics of stability margins " #

X

N

and nodal voltages. The procedure of probabilistic critical p(x) ¼ exp ln wn (x) (13)

points calculation is as follows. n¼0

Step 1: Calculate the probabilistic power ﬂow at a load level, The N þ 1 Lagrange parameters l ¼ [l0 , . . . , lN ] are

and obtain the initial voltages and covariances of voltages CV. obtained by solving the following N þ 1 non-linear equations

ð " #

Step 2: Calculate the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of Jacobian X

N

matrix of power ﬂow equation. The left eigenvector wn (x)exp ln wn (x) dx ¼ mn , n ¼ 0, .. ., N (14)

n¼0

corresponding to minimum real eigenvalue is the initial left

eigenvector.

For illustration, the maximum entropy is applied to a simple

exponential distribution with a PDF of

Step 3: Compute the mismatches in (6); if the mismatches

meet the error requirement, go to step 6, otherwise continue.

f (x) ¼ lelx (15)

Step 4: Form the Jacobian matrix J of extended power ﬂow (6)

with respect to means of nodal voltage, stability margin and where x 0, l . 0. If l ¼ 4, 0 x 4.

left eigenvector.

With the PDF, expectations of random variable functions,

Step 5: Calculate the correction of means of nodal voltage, for example the geometrical moments, can be calculated as

listed in Table 1. The objective is to determine the

stability margin and left eigenvector and correct them; go

to step 3. distribution of random variable only with known function

wn(x), n ¼ 0, . . . , 4 and expectations of random variable

functions Efwn(x)g ¼ mn in Table 1. By solving the ﬁve

Step 6: Calculate the covariances of nodal voltage, left

eigenvector and stability margin according to (9). Substitute non-linear equations in (14), the ﬁve Lagrange parameters

the covariances in (6), and calculate the mismatches. If the l ¼ [l0 , l1 , l2 , l3 , l4] in (13) are obtained. The PDF of

mismatches meet the error requirement, stop, otherwise go

to step 4. Table 1 Functions and their expectation of random variable

n 0 1 2 3 4

Consequently, the means and covariances of both nodal

2 3

voltages and stability margin can be determined from the wn(x) 1 x x x x4

probabilistic computation. The other moments of stability

mn 1 0.25 0.125 0.09374 0.09371

margin can be obtained in terms of (10).

IET Gener. Transm. Distrib., 2010, Vol. 4, Iss. 4, pp. 530 – 537 533

doi: 10.1049/iet-gtd.2009.0071 & The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2010

www.ietdl.org

be obtained when N ¼ 4. This shows that maximum

entropy method can determine any unknown distribution if

enough available information of random variables is known.

stability margin and nodal voltage can be computed.

Therefore wn(x) ¼ x n, and mn for n ¼ 1, . . . , 4 are available

information to determine the distribution stability margin.

random variable x is (13) with ﬁve known Lagrange approach and maximum entropy

parameters l ¼ [l0 , l1 , l2 , l3 , l4 ]. The proposed method is investigated on two test systems: the 39-

bus system and the 57-bus system. Normal distribution is one of

The PDF obtained by maximum entropy is then compared the most common random distributions. All real and reactive

with known PDF of exponential distribution in Fig. 1. Note loads in this study are treated as Gaussian random variables.

that for this simple case, the derived curve and the actual The loads are independent random variables with means at the

23 23

Mean Variance (10 ) ISM index of 99% Mean Variance (10 ) Mean Variance

(a) 0.025m 1.3513 0.2248 1.3163 1.3510 0.2252 0.0222 0.1776

(b) 0.05m 1.3500 0.8993 1.2801 1.3495 0.9036 0.0371 0.4759

(c) 0.075m 1.3480 2.0238 1.2431 1.3472 2.0428 0.0594 0.9301

(d) 0.1m 1.3450 3.5989 1.2052 1.3436 3.7263 0.1042 3.4189

Figure 2 Probabilistic distributions of stability margin with different sL of the 39-bus system

a sL ¼ 0.025m

b sL ¼ 0.05m

c sL ¼ 0.075m

d sL ¼ 0.1m

534 IET Gener. Transm. Distrib., 2010, Vol. 4, Iss. 4, pp. 530– 537

& The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2010 doi: 10.1049/iet-gtd.2009.0071

www.ietdl.org

23 23

Mean Variance (10 ) ISM index of 99% Mean Variance (10 ) Mean Variance

(a) 0.025m 0.80157 0.3769 0.7872 0.80158 0.3769 0.0012 0.0000

(b) 0.05m 0.80140 1.5074 0.7727 0.80142 1.5074 0.0025 0.0000

(c) 0.075m 0.80112 3.3916 0.7582 0.80116 3.3914 0.0050 0.0059

(d) 0.1m 0.80073 6.0293 0.7435 0.80078 6.0053 0.0061 0.3996

normal bus loading, denoted by m, from the original system. The probabilistic Jacobian method as listed in Table 2. From

variance of each load has been chosen such that 99% conﬁdence Table 2, it is observed that although the mean of stability

in within +10% from the normal loading value [9]. The load margin has insigniﬁcant changes, the variance of stability

standard deviation sL ¼ 0.04m has been used for probabilistic margin increases with load standard deviation sL (from

transient stability analysis in [19]. In order to study the effect 0.025m to 0.1m) as expected. Based on the moments, the

of uncertainty of load on stability margin, different standard PDFs obtained by the maximum entropy approach are

deviations of loads from 0.025m to 0.1m are, respectively, plotted in Fig. 2. In Table 2, a stability margin index ISM

analysed. For simplicity, there are no limitations for reactive of, say, 99% conﬁdence is introduced. For example,

power of generation or bus voltage levels considered. All the ISM ¼ 1.3163 in (a) implies that if the system load is

loads are constant power models. The probabilistic stability increased by 1.3163B (B is the load expectation in (4)),

margin and its distribution are determined by applying 99% of scenarios will not experience voltage collapse (i.e.

probabilistic Jacobian method (Section 3) and maximum 99% of area under the PDF in Fig. 2a has a margin greater

entropy (Section 4). Monte Carlo simulations, consisting of than 1.3163) for a system load standard deviation

1000 samples, are used to validate the proposed method. sL ¼ 0.025m. Of course, if the load variance increases, ISM

will be reduced.

5.1 Case study on the 39-bus system [20]

With different variance of loads, the means and variances of To validate the probabilistic point of collapse method, the

stability margins are calculated from (6) and (9) using mean and variance are compared with those obtained by

Figure 3 Probabilistic distributions of stability margin with different sL of the 57-bus system

a sL ¼ 0.025m

b sL ¼ 0.05m

c sL ¼ 0.075m

d sL ¼ 0.1m

IET Gener. Transm. Distrib., 2010, Vol. 4, Iss. 4, pp. 530 – 537 535

doi: 10.1049/iet-gtd.2009.0071 & The Institution of Engineering and Technology 2010

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(Section 2.3) as listed in Table 2. Results show that their

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