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2086

No of Pages : 4 Course Code : 15CS01 / 15CN01 / 15ZS01

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PSG COLLEGE OF TECHNOLOGY, COIMBATORE - 641 004


SEMESTER EXAMINATIONS, DECEMBER - 2016
ME–STRUCTURAL/INFRASTRUCTURE/ SWE, Semester: 1 / PhD(PT) - ECE
15CS01 / 15CN01 / 15ZS01 APPLIED STATISTICAL AND RELIABILITY
Time: 3 Hours Maximum Marks: 100
INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Answer ALL questions from PART - A and Answer any FOUR questions from
PART - B. Question under PART – C is compulsory.
2. Statistical Tables (Z, t, F and χ2) are allowed.

PART - A Marks : 10 x 3 = 30

1. Why we need random variables? Give the suitable distribution of a random variable for
the following scenarios.
i) A production process produces thousands of transducers. Let X is the number of
nonconforming transducers in a sample of size 30 selected at random.
ii) Suppose X denotes the number of accidents occur along federal highways in Arizona
during a one-month period.
2. Determine the value of c from the joint probability mass function f XY ( x , y)  c( x  y) over
x = 1, 2, 3 and y = 1, 2, 3.
3. How does the estimate differ from an estimator? List the criteria of a good Estimator.
4. Define confidence interval. Construct 99% confidence interval for the ten bearings made
by a certain process has a mean diameter of 0.05cm and a standard deviation of
0.0032cm. Assuming that the data may be looked upon as a random sample from a
normal population.
5. A sociologist is concerned about the effectiveness of a training course designed to get
more drivers to use seat belts in automobiles.
i) What hypothesis is she testing if she commits a type I error by erroneously
concluding that the training course is ineffective?
ii) What hypothesis is she testing if she commits a type II error by erroneously
concluding that the training course is effective?
6. How a Randomized Block Design (RBD) differs from a Completely Randomized Design
(CRD)?
7. What type of correlation should we expect from the following variables?
i) Ability of supervisors and output of their subordinates.
ii) Age at first full time job and number of years of education.
iii) College grade-point average and student’s height.
8. A CFR with λ=0.0004 has been operating for 1000 hr. What is the probability that it will
fail in the next 100 hr?
9. Mention the importance of and of a system. Determine and for the
system with .

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No of Pages : 4 Course Code : 15CS01 / 15CN01 / 15ZS01

10. Two generators provide needed electrical power. If either fails, the other can continue to
provide electrical power. If λ=0.01 failure per day and λ+ =0.10 failure per day, determine
the system reliability and the system MTTF.
PART - B Marks : 4 x 12.5 = 50

11. a) State the Bayes’ theorem. Martin Coleman, manager for Beck’s knows that company
uses three methods to encourage collection records; he learns that 70 the percent of
accounts are called on personally, 20 percent are phoned, and 10 percent are sent a
letter. The probabilities of collecting an overdue amount from an account with the
three methods are 0.75, 0.60 and 0.65, respectively. What is the probability that this
account; [6]
i) was called on personally?
ii) received a phone call?
iii) received a letter?
b) What do you mean by standard normal probability distribution? The manager of a
Spiffy Lube auto lubrication shop is trying to revise his policy on ordering grease gun
cartridges. Currently, he orders 110 cartridges per week, but he runs out cartridges 1
out of every 4 weeks. Cartridges is normally cartridges. [6.5]
i) What is the standard deviation of the distribution?
ii) If the manager wants to order enough cartridges so that his probability of running
out during any week is no longer than 0.2, how many cartridges should he order
per week?
12. a) Obtain the value of c that makes the function a joint probability
density function over the range Find [6]
i) P(X<1, Y<2); P (1<X<2) and P(Y>1)
ii) Marginal probability distribution of X and E(x);
b) What is maximum likelihood estimation? In a random sampling from normal
distribution N (µ, σ2), find the maximum likelihood estimator of [6.5]
i) µ when σ2 is known;
ii) σ2 when  is known;
13. a) Test the hypothesis that the average content of containers of particular lubricants is 10
liters if the contents of a random sample of 10 containers are 10.2, 9.7, 10.1, 10.3,
10.1, 9.8, 9.9, 10.4, 10.3 and 9.8 liters. Use 0.01 level of significance and assume
that the distribution of contents is normal. [6]
b) Tests of fidelity and the selectivity of 190 radio receivers produced the results shown
in the following table [6.5]

Fidelity
Selectivity Low Average High
Low 6 12 32
Average 33 61 18
High 13 15 0

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Use 0.01 level of significance to test whether there is a relationship between fidelity
and selectivity.
14. A laboratory technician measures the breaking strength of each of 5 kinds of linen
thread by means of 4 different instruments, and obtains the following results (in ounces):

Measuring Instrument
I1 I2 I3 I4
Thread 1 20.6 20.7 20.0 21.4
Thread 2 24.7 26.5 27.1 24.3
Thread 3 25.2 23.4 21.6 23.9
Thread 4 24.5 21.5 23.6 25.2
Thread 5 19.3 21.5 22.2 20.6

Perform analysis of variance to test at the level of significance α=0.01.


15. a) Derive the hazard rate function? Given a Weibull failure distribution with shape
parameter of 1/3 and a scale parameter of 16,000, completely characterize the failure
process: [6.5]
i) Compute the reliability function;
ii) Is the failure rate DFR, CFR or IFR?
iii) Find the MTTF and the median time to failure.
iv) Find variance and its B1 life.
v) If 90 percent reliability is desired, find the design life?
b) Find the system reliability of the following configurations: [6]
i) If and .

ii) Find the system reliability of the following configuration if


and .

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PART - C Marks : 1 x 20 = 20
16. a) Zippy Cola is studying the effect of its latest advertising campaign. People chosen at
random were called and asked how many cans of Zippy Cola they had bought in the
past week and how many Zippy Cola advertisements they had either read or seen in
the past week. [10]

Number 3 7 4 2 0 4 1 2
of ads
cans 11 18 9 4 7 6 3 8
purchased

Calculate the sample coefficient of determination and sample coefficient of


correlation.
b) A study by the Atlanta, Georgia, department of transportation the effect of bus ticket
prices on the number of passengers produced the following results: [10]

Ticket 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
price (cents)
Passengers 800 780 780 660 640 600 620 620
P per 100 miles:

i) Plot these data


ii) Develop the estimating equation that best describes these data;
iii) Predict the number of passengers per 100 miles if the ticket price were 50 cents.
Use 95% approx. prediction interval.

/END/
FD/RS

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