Premia Research

Market Mantra April 16, 2018

Indian Market % Change Trading Strategy

Last Close 1 day YTD Union Bank Apr Futs (Sell between Rs98-99,
Sensex 34,193 0.3 28.4 Target Rs96.20, Stop Loss Rs100.1): The stock
Nifty 10,481 0.2 28.0 has been under pressure for the past four
Nifty Bank 25,201 0.0 38.6 trading sessions and has also slipped below its
Nifty Midcap 50 5,329 0.9 45.5 21-DMA. The stock is likely to break down from
Nifty Smallcap 50 4,237 0.4 38.2 a declining channel pattern if Union Bank slips
below Friday's low. In addition, other oscillators
are also indicating the weakness is likely to
Developed Markets % Change
extend further.
Last Close 1 day YTD
Dow Jones 24,360 (0.5) 39.8 Derivative Strategy (Time period: Till expiry)
Nasdaq 7,107 (0.5) 41.9 Sell INFY April Future at Rs1135-1145, Stop Loss
S&P 500 2,656 (0.3) 29.9 Rs1163 and Target Rs1112-1115.
Hang Seng 30,808 (0.1) 40.6
Nikkei 21,779 0.5 14.4 Nifty Outlook: Nifty finds support around
10,395 while Friday's high of 10,521 will act as
resistance. Bank Nifty finds support around
Institutional Activity (`cr) 24,913 which is the 200-DMA, while 25,411
Cash* YTD which is the 100-DMA will act as resistance.
FII (400) 13,329
DII 306 37,843 Asian indices opened with weakness which got
*Provisional Figures bought into as no further escalation in the
middle east saw value buying emerge. The
Advance/Decline stocks No. (NSE)
historical evidence suggests geopolitical risk as
13-Apr-18 12-Apr-18 an excellent opportunity 'to buy the fear' as
Adv 878 618 near term weakness see long term gains. Expect
Dec 920 934 consolidation in Asian markets with news from
Unch 93 59 the middle east seeing movements on equities,
bonds and currencies.
 Premia Research
Derivative
% % Current OI OI in OI PCR PCR ATM Max CE Max PE %
Index Spot Future Basis
FutChg v/s Total OI Shares Chg OI 26.4VOL IV
13.7 Buildup
(8.9) Buildup
36.3Rollovers
7.8 127.0 (6.3) 58.2
Nifty 10481 10490 0.2 10 65.6 272.5 2.9 1.63 1.26 11.6 10500 10300 6.6
BankNifty 25201 25219 0.1 19 50.9 18.5 (3.8) 1.46221.50.96 111.6
14.9 (3.8)
25000 2450037.8 5.4
734.0 82.7 (35.4) 50.6
OI Gainers
OI % OI % Price Derivative Snippets
Underline Price Action
(lakhs) Chg Chg
Short  In the last trading session, Nifty Futures
BPCL 165 12.0 407 (3.0)
Buildup added open interest to the tune of ~10.8
Short
SIEMENS 12 8.7 1080 (2.0)
Buildup lakh shares.
BEL 300 8.2 143 (3.1)
Short  Tracking the Nifty Index Options, across the
Buildup
board short covering was witnessed in all
OI Losers the major In the Money call option strikes,
OI % OI % Price with Nifty 10400CE shedding ~7 lakh shares
Underline Price Action
(lakhs) Chg Chg in open positions, consisting of mainly short
Short
APOLLOTYRE 110 (7.7) 296 0.6
Covering
positions.
EXIDEIND 94 (6.8) 241 1.0
Short  India Vix index ended the session 2.88%
Covering lower at 14.15.
Short
MRF 0 (6.5) 78050 0.2
Covering  FII were net sellers in the cash market
segment to the tune of `400cr.
Nifty Active Strikes  FII Index PE Option Long Short ratio
Strikes Price % Price OI % OI % OI Change
Chng Chng since Expiry
currently stands at 2.3x VS 2.4x.
10400CE 147 5.5 28 (20.9) 59.6
10300CE 226 5.8 22 (11.4) 15.4


10200CE 308 5.1 11.9 (5.8) (23.7) FII Long-Short Activity

10400PE 63 (23.0) 49 8.7 567.5 % Chg Long- Long-Short
%
10300PE 41 (26.7) 52.3 (5.6) 489.2 Index OI Since Short Ratio since
Chg
Exp Ratio Exp
54 5 70
Since Expiry Fut Long
0.4 1.6
% Price % 152 4 7
Underline OI % OI Chg Fut Short
Chg Rollover
NIFTY 272.5 30.0 3.3 6.6 Opt CE 237 5 63
Long 2.8 1.8
BANKNIFTY 18.5 13.9 3.6 5.4
Opt CE 83 4 (8)
MGL 41.3 363.7 (4.8) 3.9 Short
BERGEPAINT 20.8 90.1 6.9 1.7 Opt PE 382 2 31 2.3 0.8
Long
PAGEIND 0.5 85.0 12.3 1.2 Opt PE 169 9 67
MINDTREE 30.8 84.9 10.0 4.3 Short

281.0 8.4 (6.1) 39.0

 Premia Research
Derivative
Cash and carry arbitrage Reverse cash and carry arbitrage
Underline Spot Futures Basis Basis Action Underline Spot Futures Basis Basis Action
Price Price (%) Price Price (%)
Buy cash Sell cash
SOUTHBANK 25.00 25.15 0.15 0.6 and Sell CASTROLIND 205.95 204.10 (1.85) (0.9) and Buy
future future
Buy cash Sell cash
RPOWER 40.45 40.65 0.20 0.5 and Sell CHOLAFIN 1568.90 1556.40 (12.50) (0.8) and Buy
future future
Buy cash Sell cash
HDIL 41.50 41.70 0.20 0.5 and Sell INFRATEL 339.70 337.35 (2.35) (0.7) and Buy
future future

PCR Open Interest PCR Volume

Underline Current Previous % Change Underline Current Previous % Change
HCLTECH 0.40 0.71 (0.44) PTC 0.63 0.03 18.63
DALMIABHA 0.29 0.49 (0.42) MUTHOOTFIN 0.31 0.08 3.02
IBULHSGFIN 0.80 0.56 0.42 JETAIRWAYS 0.92 0.27 2.46
ITC 0.45 0.64 (0.30) ENGINERSIN 0.19 0.07 1.64
TECHM 1.13 0.88 0.28 GODREJIND 0.22 0.08 1.61
NESTLEIND 0.47 0.37 0.28 BERGEPAINT 0.65 0.25 1.59
WIPRO 1.16 0.90 0.28 IDFCBANK 0.41 0.16 1.57
MCDOWELL-N 0.59 0.47 0.27 HCC 0.34 0.13 1.51
DHFL 0.79 0.63 0.26 WIPRO 0.56 0.26 1.13
CHENNPETRO 0.68 0.55 0.24 AMARAJABAT 0.24 0.11 1.10

Weekly Bank Nifty Active Strikes Historical Volatility of Active Stocks

600000 300% 50
500000 250% 45
200%
400000 40
150%
300000 100% 35
50% 30
200000 HV
0% 25
100000 -50%
20 %
0 -100%
15 Chg

10
5
OI PE (lakhs) OI CE (lakhs) % Price Change % OI Change
0
 Premia Research
Pivotes and Deals
CMP Sup Resist 50- 200 UPL 747 741 754 724 780
Company (`) port* ance* DMA -DMA ULTRACEMCO 3879 3859 3902 4092 4149
ADANIPORTS 383 375 389 391 397 VEDL 292 289 295 311 307
ASIANPAINT 1162 1154 1173 1129 1154 WIPRO 294 289 297 291 292
AXISBANK 543 534 553 535 528 YESBANK 310 305 314 319 329
BAJAJ-AUTO 2786 2762 2808 2981 3041 ZEEL 576 573 579 576 550
BAJFINANCE 1914 1898 1940 1709 1728
BAJAJFINSV 5317 5260 5408 5101 5083
BPCL 405 399 417 447 482 Bulk deals
BHARTIARTL 378 374 384 416 443 Qty
B/ Avg
INFRATEL 340 335 346 339 378 Date Scrip name Institution (‘000
S price (`)
CIPLA 556 552 560 578 584 )
COALINDIA 285 282 287 293 273 12- Agro Tech EQ INDIA
B 150 650
DRREDDY 2090 2073 2101 2156 2316 Apr Foods Limited FUND
EICHERMOT 31353 30802 31702 28066 29598 LETKO
BROSSEAU
GAIL 327 324 329 339 326
12- Kwality EMERGING
GRASIM 1064 1058 1072 1110 1158 B 3650 59
Apr Limited MARKETS
HCLTECH 991 980 1011 956 899 EQUITY
HDFCBANK 1925 1916 1937 1891 1827 FUND
HEROMOTOCO 3726 3693 3765 3593 3709
HINDALCO 238 235 239 232 240
Insider Trading
HINDPETRO 334 329 341 370 408
Company B/
HINDUNILVR 1411 1402 1417 1339 1265 Date Name Trader S Qty (‘000)
HDFC 1841 1828 1848 1828 1752 BG Asia
ITC 261 259 263 265 273 13- Mahanagar Pacific
S 8396
ICICIBANK 288 286 291 306 303 Apr Gas Ltd. Holdings
IBULHSGFIN 1345 1322 1359 1275 1226 Pte
IOC 165 163 169 186 197
INDUSINDBK 1861 1845 1875 1729 1670
INFY 1171 1153 1188 1146 1015 Upcoming Results
KOTAKBANK 1151 1140 1160 1077 1027 Apr 16 :
LT 1355 1342 1366 1326 1233
LUPIN 780 775 784 799 927
M&M 790 783 796 746 709
MARUTI 9124 9064 9225 8946 8412
NTPC 171 170 172 167 171
ONGC 183 181 184 185 177
POWERGRID 198 197 198 195 206
RELIANCE 939 931 944 917 871
SBIN 251 248 255 268 287
SUNPHARMA 513 509 518 535 533
TCS 3153 3110 3219 2976 2677
TATAMOTORS 357 354 361 360 405
TATASTEEL 594 588 602 638 633
TECHM 672 650 683 615 499
TITAN 987 980 994 859 730
 Premia Research
News Snippets
Corporate Snippets: Economy Snippets:
 Infosys looks to sell Panaya and Skava. To  After a fall, GST collections set to top
acquire WongDoody Holding for $75mn. Rs95,000cr.
 Dilip Buildcon sets up 5 SPVs to undertake  Govt says importers free to hire own
Rs6307cr worth projects from NHAI. transporters to move boxes.
 Bliss GVS pharma gets $12mn from sale of  Employees can see average 9-12% salary
51% stake in Kenya unit. hike this fiscal.
 Shalimar paints says period for rights issue  E-way bill: CBIC spells out procedure for
extended upto April 19. interception, detention of goods.
 IL&FS Engineering wins Rs129.66cr pipeline  PAN card norm eased for corporate
laying contract from GAIL. assesses.
 KPIT Technologies two day offer to buy  NITI Aayog VC says India will not take sides
starts today. in US-China trade spat.
 Alembic Ltd. two-day buyback starts today.  Govt identifying infrastructure assets to be
 Karda Constructions shifted to B group and monetised through InvIT route.
circuit filter revised to 20%.
 Alok Industries: Reliance Industries and JM
Financial ARC resolution plan did not receive Results Table:
Committee of Creditors approval. Revenue ` YoY PAT ` YoY
 Aurobindo Pharma gets US FDA nod for Company Cr % Cr %
allergy drug, Loratadine Tablet (10 mg). Infosys 18,083.00 2 2690 (0)
 Strides Shasun gets US FDA nod for
Cyproheptadine Hydrochloride tablets.
 The BSE has sought clarification from ICICI
Bank on a probe by SEBI with regard to
corporate governance issues.
 Delhi High Court has directed Bharti Airtel to
modify tagline of ‘Live and Free’
advertisements for IPL tournament.
 United Spirits’ Board has approved a stock
split in the ratio of 5:1.
 RIL has raised Rs3,250cr from Japanese
banks to fund capex plan.
 Tata Group’s Tata Projects wins Rs1,048cr
Mumbai Metro orders.
 White House to decide on rollback of tariff
on Indian steel, aluminium, as per media
reporst. Metal stocks will be in focus.
 Premia Research
Event Calendar
Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday
1-Apr 2-Apr 3-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr
Nikkei Markit RBA Interest Nikkei CRR, Interest Rate
Manufacturing Rate Decision Services PMI Decision INR,
PMI (Mar) (Apr) AUD, Retail (Mar) INR. Household Spending
INR, Current Sales (YoY) (Feb) (MoM) (Feb) JPY.
Account (USD) CHF, Caixin
INR. Services PMI
(Mar) CNY.
8-Apr 9-Apr 10-Apr 11-Apr 12-Apr 13-Apr 14-Apr
Bank Lending (YoY) Industrial Trade Balance
(Mar) JPY, CPI (MoM) Production (USD) (Mar)
CNY. (YoY) (Feb) INR. CNY.
15-Apr 16-Apr 17-Apr 18-Apr 19-Apr 20-Apr 21-Apr
WPI Inflation
(YoY) (Mar)
INR.
22-Apr 23-Apr 24-Apr 25-Apr 26-Apr 27-Apr 28-Apr

29-Apr 30-Apr
 Premia Research
Disclaimer
Recommendation Parameters for Fundamental/Technical Reports:

Buy – Absolute return of over +10%

Accumulate – Absolute return between 0% to +10%
Reduce – Absolute return between 0% to -10%
Sell – Absolute return below -10%

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