DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY

NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY, 2D “FREEDOM” BRIGADE

UNITED STATES ARMY CADET COMMAND
335A HUNTINGTON AVENUE
BOSTON, MA 02115

  

02 March 2018

MEMORANDUM FOR PROFESSOR MUSSELMAN REGARDING WENDY QING

SUBJECT: Project 2 Peer Review

PURPOSE: The purpose of this memorandum is to give constructive feedback on the first draft
of project 2.

Summary

1. Games are used everywhere in real life. From simple coin toss games to more complex
games like Robbing and Mahjong. The underlying strategy for these games relies on the
theory of probability. Probability is the chance of something happening and it can be
calculated mathematically and applied to the games mentioned above. In random variable
games such as a coin toss, probability can help the player see patterns and create a
probability distribution which highlights all possible options and their likelihood of
occuring. Probability can also help a potential player determine if the game they are
considering playing is fair or not.
2. Examples like the prediction of tomorrow's weather show that people have tried to use
probability where it is not applicable. Natural phenomenon cannot be predicted.
3. In more complex games like Mahjong and Robbing, probability is used to determine
whether or not to enter a game and the likelihood of winning that game. By
understanding probability (sometimes multiple probabilities at once) and how the game
works, the players chances of winning increase. However if a player only looks at the
probability of his or her moves, decisions may be distorted because they stop being based
on values and preferences.
4. Past probabilities may be a good indicator of future results

Major Points

5. Structure
a. The structure of the paper is laid out in a logical format, first introducing
probability theory and then specific games in the order of complexity. The review
closes with a discussion, conclusion and further expectations section. The section
labeled “Probability has a Bond to Games” was exceedingly interesting
6. Content
 DEPARTMENT OF THE ARMY
NORTHEASTERN UNIVERSITY, 2D “FREEDOM” BRIGADE
UNITED STATES ARMY CADET COMMAND
335A HUNTINGTON AVENUE
BOSTON, MA 02115

a. Introduction thoroughly explains where probability theory is used but could go

more in depth on the theory itself. Background history? Current research on this
theory (if there is any).
b. There should be no use of we, you, I
c. Try to avoid direct quotations if possible. The author can adequately paraphrase
the quotations used in the review.
d. The explanations of the games (Robbing and Mahjong) become difficult to
understand. Author needs to make sure that the explanations of the games flow in
a logical manner, have all specific parts explained (characters, chow) and can be
understood by a person who has never seen or played these games.
e. Were there any studies other than Bondt, 2012 that looked at probability within
these games?
i. Do any studies show how winning increases when the underlying
probability rules are known vs unknown?
f. Are there strategies for recognizing probability rules in games? Are there times
when knowing the probability can hurt a players chances? Are there studies to
prove this?
i. Overall, more studies which support the claims made in the review (ie
thinking of probability makes one lose their prejudice)
Minor points
7. Attached to this peer review is a scanned copy the review with grammatical
suggestions. The paper is easily readable but can be improved with these revisions. Author
should look at her uses of the word “different” in section 2.2 and 2.3. Author should include
running head, header and page numbers. Wikipedia should not be cited in this review unless
otherwise notified.
8. The point of contact for this memorandum is c/SGT Jack Nickles at
nickles.j@husky.neu.edu

Jack Nickles
c/SGT