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Hypothesis 1: the number of Nile crocodile attacks increases over time

Hypothesis 2: the number of salt-water crocodile attacks increases over time

Hypothesis 3: there is no relationship between fatal and non-fatal.

Hypothesis 4: nile crocodile and salt water crocodile affected by seasonality

I will collect data online from a highly reliable crocodile attack website. I will read reviews

online and decide the best option and credibility. A sample size of about 40 pieces of data

for each variable. I will use all the data available because I believe that all data in this

investigation is important as we need to know the number of crocodiles each month so to

simply skip over a month would be impractical and could interfere with my data possibly

making it inaccurate and unreliable. I will use a stratified sample, as it would be suitable for

the data I will acquire. I am hoping to find data that is monthly crocodile attack data.. This

way I could investigate, seasonality, which would help me, further show my data. A sample I

could have used was random sample however I believe this will not be suitable if I want to

investigate the seasonality of my data. Once I find my data I will record it on excel. I will use

a formula to determine if there is any outliers, I will also look for outliers by eye. The outliers

could change the mean because the mean is not robust to extreme results. A more robust

average to work out that will be less effected by outliers would be the median because even

other averages such as standard deviation could be effected by outliers. Standard deviation
will however give me a representation of how the data has changed since the beginning to

the end.

In my investigation I am going to investigate the number of crocodiles attacks in two

different species; one been the Nile crocodile and one been the salt-water crocodile. I am

going to use various statistical devices to explain the data I find. I am going to calculate the

mean of the data I find. I will then calculate the standard deviation, if the number it gives

me is high then that tells me that there has been a high change in crocodile attacks over

time. After this, I will begin to plot my data on a time series graph I will draw it by hand and

use it to work out the moving averages of the data; I will then draw a trend line by eye. To

further prove my statistical abilities I will find the gradient. I will then plot a scatter graph

with two variables. After all of that I will then calculate the spearman’s rank of this data and

begin to investigate seasonality. A problem I could encounter with spearman’s rank is the

fact some pieces of data could be the same. To solve this problem I will find the median of

the two pieces of data. I predict in colder months there will be more attacks because the

crocodiles usual prey are dying or hiding or hibernation because it is cold so the crocodiles

are getting desperate thus attacking humans.


Calculate mean sd sd measure spread high change over time

Moving average time series trendline by eye calculate gradient plot scatter graph two

variables calculate sr investigate seasonality

I have collected my data from http://www.crocodile-attack.info/ and I have chosen this website

because it is a reliable website funded by the Charles Darwin university. Another reason I have

chosen this website is because it has monthly data which I intend to use to investigate seasonality.

I have found monthly data for salt water and Nile crocodile attacks I will record this data in excel and

use It to work out averages of this data, I have decided to record 3 years worth of data, starting from

2015 and ending in the early months of 2018. Overall this gives me a sample size of 38. I believe this

is enough data to work with and that an outlier would not affect it that much, however if there was

to be outliers I would remove it from the data as it can still affect my data. However I don’t believe

there is an outlier, as I have looked through the data by eye and there is no figure than stands out as

extreme.

I have calculated the mean number of attacks all together for each crocodile. The mean for saltwater

crocodiles was 5.58 (rounded to 2dp) and the mean for the Nile crocodiles was 4.53 (rounded to

2dp.) This tells us that on average the saltwater crocodiles attack more. I have also calculated the

standard deviation for both crocodiles. The standard deviation of the saltwater crocodile was
2.49 and the standard deviation for Nile crocodiles was 2.85. This tells me that saltwater crocodile

attacks are slightly less spread out than the Nile crocodiles.

I have created a scatter graph that compare salt water and nile crocodile attacks from what I can see

on the graph there is some correlation between the two crocodiles to further test this I will calculate

spearmans rank and if the number I calculate is close to 0 there is no correlation.

Saltwater and Nile Attacks.


18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Jul-15

Jul-16

Jul-17
May-15

May-16

May-17
Mar-15

Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16

Sep-16
Nov-16

Mar-17

Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-15

Jan-17

Jan-18

Salt Water Nile

The spearmans rank of the data was 0.106 this shows me that there is no correlation between the

two data sets which tells me that there is no link between saltwater crocodile attacks and nile

crocodile attacks.

I have also drawn several time series graphs to show the number attacks through the year. I have

noticed on the graph that most attacks have indeed happened in the colder months. To investigate is

the seasonality of the data has anything to do with the number of attacks I worked out the 3 point

moving averages of the data. The 3 point moving average has shown me that the values on average

between both crocodile species was similar, this shows me that the crocodiles attacks may have
been influenced by outside environmental or even human factors. Such as in the colder months

where food is scarce so crocodiles cannot eat as much so they resort to humans.

The average attacks from crocodiles are higher in colder months this supports my theory in the plan

that the colder months will lead to an increase in crocodile attacks.

Salt Water Nile rank sw rank n D d^2

Jan-15 5 7 16 31.5 -15.5 240.25

Feb-15 10 7 36.5 31.5 5 25

Mar-15 7 7 27 31.5 -4.5 20.25

Apr-15 7 6 27 27 0 0

May-15 5 1 16 8 8 64

Jun-15 8 0 32.5 3.5 29 841

Jul-15 7 0 27 3.5 23.5 552.25

Aug-15 2 2 4 10.5 -6.5 42.25

Sep-15 2 4 4 17 -13 169

Oct-15 5 6 16 27 -11 121

Nov-15 1 5 1 22.5 -21.5 462.25

Dec-15 8 4 32.5 17 15.5 240.25

Jan-16 4 7 11.5 31.5 -20 400

Feb-16 7 8 27 34.5 -7.5 56.25

Mar-16 11 4 38 17 21 441
Apr-16 6 6 21 27 -6 36

May-16 8 4 32.5 17 15.5 240.25

Jun-16 7 0 27 3.5 23.5 552.25

Jul-16 6 0 21 3.5 17.5 306.25

Aug-16 2 1 4 8 -4 16

Sep-16 4 0 11.5 3.5 8 64

Oct-16 4 4 11.5 17 -5.5 30.25

Nov-16 7 9 27 36 -9 81

Dec-16 7 3 27 12.5 14.5 210.25

Jan-17 8 6 32.5 27 5.5 30.25

Feb-17 3 9 8 36 -28 784

Mar-17 6 8 21 34.5 -13.5 182.25

Apr-17 6 10 21 38 -17 289

May-17 5 3 16 12.5 3.5 12.25

Jun-17 3 2 8 10.5 -2.5 6.25

Jul-17 4 1 11.5 8 3.5 12.25

Aug-17 2 4 4 17 -13 169

Sep-17 6 4 21 17 4 16

Oct-17 9 5 35 22.5 12.5 156.25

Nov-17 5 9 16 36 -20 400


Dec-17 3 6 8 27 -19 361

Jan-18 10 5 36.5 22.5 14 196

Feb-18 2 5 4 22.5 -18.5 342.25

In conclusion I have proved a few of my hypotheses’ I predicted that nile and saltwater crocodiles
would be affected by seasonality. In my data we can see that I investigated seasonality and indeed
found crocodiles did attack more in certain seasons such as winter when the food is scarce. My other
hypotheses’ stated that crocodile attacks would increase over time. i found that this was not the
case. Crocodile attacks showed no indication of increasing over time.