illustration 1: Linear Bi-Variate

SI Advertisement Budget Sales

In Rs. Mn In Rs. Mn Deviation
X Y xi - X-bar yi - y-bar
1 450 3823 -56.25 -513.25
2 480 4055 -26.25 -281.25
3 430 3762 -76.25 -574.25
4 490 4177 -16.25 -159.25
5 530 4585 23.75 248.75
6 550 4704 43.75 367.75
7 540 4650 33.75 313.75
8 580 4934 73.75 597.75
Sum 4050 34690 0 0
Mean/ Variance 506.25 4336.25 0 0

X Y
5000
Mean 506.25 4336.25
Variance 2373.4375 168813.9375
4800
St Dev 48.7179381748 410.8697330055
Step - 4 Covariance 19912.1875
Correlation, r 99.478% 4600
Determination R^2 98.958%
Slope B 8.38959842 4400
Intercept, A 89.0157998683
4200
Step - 5 Equation of the Regression Line is Y= 8.3896x+ 89.0158
Step - 6 5122.7748518762 4000

3800
420 4

Month Unique Visitor

X Y
1 0.45
2 0.92
3 1.7
4 2.8
5 4.6
6 10.1
7 18.5
8 32.4
9 59.6
10 100.2
 11 179.8
12 300.6
13 595.9

Promo Hours Spent Gross Revenue

Hours Rs.Mn
X Y
34 250
40 300
46 356
64 567
55 458
93 832
103 1045
77 699
SUM 512 4507
Mean 64 563.375

X 120
X Y
Mean 64 563.375
Variance 551.5 68025.984375
St Dev 23.4840371316 260.8179142141
Covariance 6092.5
Correlation, r 99.468%
Determination R^2 98.940%
Slope B
Intercept, A
Forecast 1182.0150725295
Bi-Variate
Steps
Sq of deviation Product of Deviation 1 Identify the Dependent
(xi - x-bar)^2 (yi - y-bar)^2 (xi - x-bar) (yi - y-bar) 2 plot a scatter Digram,to
3164.0625 263425.5625 28870.3125 3 Find coeeficent of corre
689.0625 79101.5625 7382.8125 4 Find Coffecient of Deter
5814.0625 329763.0625 43786.5625 5 Find the Regresion equi
264.0625 25360.5625 2587.8125 6 Forecast using the Regre
564.0625 61876.5625 5907.8125
1914.0625 135240.0625 16089.0625
1139.0625 98439.0625 10589.0625
5439.0625 357305.0625 44084.0625
18987.5 1350511.5 159297.5
2373.4375 168813.9375 19912.1875

5000
f(x) = 8.38959842x + 89.0157998683
4800 R² = 0.9895821356

4600

4400 Column C
Linear (Column C)
4200

4000

3800
420 440 460 480 500 520 540 560 580 600

350
f(x) = 0.2709332635 exp( 0.5919989948 x )
300 R² = 0.9988858673

250

200
Column B
150 Exponential (Column B)

100

50
200
Column B
150 Exponential (Column B)

100

50

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
 Steps in Bi-Variate Data Analysis
Identify the Dependent and Independent variable,and establish logical connect
plot a scatter Digram,to identify the trend (liner or non-linear or none)
Find coeeficent of correlation,r
Find Coffecient of Determination,R^2,it measures the significance of regression
Find the Regresion equiation, or the equation of the best fit line or best fit curve'
Forecast using the Regression equiation,for a given value of independent variables
 Probabilty:An Introduction

A Probabilty of an event A,is the ratio of favourable cases to that event, to the total number of

P(A)=n/N
B Theory of compound probabilty

P(AORB)=p(A)=P(B)-p(AandB)

C THEORY OF INDEPENDENCE

if two events A and B are independent,then P(A andB)=P(a)*P(B)

Conditional proababilty
Probabilty of an event A,given that another event B has already occurred,

EX1: Two products are launched in the same category by rival companies independently in the market
P(A|B)=P(A and b)/P(B)
60% and 70% respectively

Answer the following :

A Find the chance that both of them will fall in the market
B Find the chance that at least one of them will be successful in the market
C Find the chance that at most one of them will be succesful in the market
D Find the chance that exactly one of them will fail market

Answers Formula/logic
A 0.12 P(A-bar)* P(B-bar)
B 0.88 1- P(A U B)
C 0.58 1-P(A)*P(B)
D 0.46 P(A-bar)*P(B) + P(B-bar)*P(A)

P(A) 0.3 P(D/A) 0.45

P(B) 0.7 P(D-Bar/A) 0.55
P(D/B) 0.1
P(D-bar/B) 0.9

1 Find the probablity that the company will make the profit in atleast 2 qtrs
 2 Find the probablity that the company will make the profit in at most 2 qtrs
3 Find the mean expected profitable QTRS and the coresponding standard deviation

Binomial Distribution
Example 1 Overall 60% bank accounts are AADHAR linked till now. 15 Accounts are chosen at random

1 Find the PD of AADHAR linked accounts in the sample

2 What is the chance that 10 or more accounts are linked in the sample
3 What is the chance that at most 5 accounts are linked in the sample

Let X be the random variable describing the no of AADHAR linked accounts

Here X follows Binomial Distribution, with n=15 & p=60%
The following table describes the PD of X

X P(X)
0 1.07374182E-06 1.07374182E-06
1 2.4159191E-05 2.52329329E-05
2 0.0002536715 0.0002789044
3 0.0016488648 0.0019277692
4 0.0074198915 0.0093476608 Question Answer
5 0.0244856421 0.0338333029 2 40.33%
6 0.0612141053 0.0950474082 3 3.38%
7 0.1180557745 0.2131031826
8 0.1770836617 0.3901868443
9 0.2065976053 0.5967844496
10 0.1859378448 0.7827222943
11 0.1267758032 0.9094980976
12 0.0633879016 0.9728859992
13 0.0219419659 0.9948279652
14 0.0047018498 0.999529815
15 0.000470185 1

Normal Distribution
Normal distribution is a Continous Porbablity Distribution
A Random Variable X Follows Normal Distribution with two parameters Mean And Standard deviation

Example 1 Life expectancy of all Indian Male is normally Distributed with a Mean of 72 years and STD of 7 years

Answer the following

1 What is the chance that an Indian male will survive more than 80 years?
 2 What is the chance that an indian male will survive between 70 to 75 years?
3 What is the benchmark no of the years that 90% of indian Male is expected to live

Ans Let X be the random variable describing the number of year an Indain male lives
Here X follows Normal Distribution with
µ 72
STD 7

1 P(X>80)= 1-P(X<=80) 12.65%

2 P(70<= X <= 75) Normdist for 75 33.41%
Normdist for 70 61.25%
Answer 27.83%
3 80.97

µ 120
STD 20

1 37%
2 6.68%
3 136.8324
event, to the total number of cases

=P(a)*P(B)

occurred,

independently in the market .the market analyst suggest that chance of success of these two products are 60

P(A) 0.6 P(A-bar) 0.4

P(B) 0.7 P(B-bar) 0.3
ard deviation

d Standard deviation

rs and STD of 7 years

oducts are 60