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STUDY
MARKET DESCRIPTION
Monoammonium phosphate has been one of the most important granular fertilizer for many
years. Its water soluble and dissolves rapidly in adequately moist soil. Monoammonium phosphate
can also be used in fire extinguishers that is commonly found in schools, offices and homes.
However, Philippines being an agricultural country, demand for Monoammonium phosphate is
solely focused on the fertilizer sector. The amount of demand for fertilizer is growing to meet the
demand for Philippines agricultural services. Also, as one of the top producers of rice, corn and
sugarcanes, Philippines uses various amounts of fertilizers to ensure the growth of the crops.
The amount of Monoammonium phosphate in demand is greater than the supply generated
worldwide, being in a continent which specializes in producing agricultural products, Asia alone
generates vast amounts of demand for fertilizers worldwide. Countries such as China, India and
United states are the leading consumers of these fertilizers.
DEMAND (Kg/Yr)
SUPPLY (Kg/Yr)
Figure 1.2 Graphical representation for historical supply data of Monoammonium Phosphate
Table 1.3 Historical Supply and Demand of Monoammonium Phosphate
YEAR HISTORICAL DEMAND HISTORICAL
(KG) SUPPLY (KG)
2006 125,409,615.65 94,439,823.00
2007 92,590,361.07 41,117,493.00
2008 43,782,708.94 26,371,430.00
2009 66,673,829.76 4,903,042.00
2010 96,734,206.52 1,464,173.00
2011 52,897,542.71 655,750.00
2012 64,181,879.21 45,604,401.00
2013 76,576,608.82 12,350,104.00
2014 85,650,198.65 22,268,032.00
2015 98,613,900.87 2,347,745.00
120,000,000.00
100,000,000.00
80,000,000.00
60,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
20,000,000.00
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
This section shows the projected future supply and demand for the next 10 years using different
types of statistical projection. This is a necessary procedure in order to predict the movement of
the market for Monoammonium Phosphate in the next 10 years.
1. Arithmetic Straight-Line Method (ASLM) – assumes that the annual increase in the
future will be the same although the rate or increase in percent is decreasing.
2. Arithmetic Geometric Curve Method (AGCM) – assumes that the annual increase in the
projected values is constant however; the amount of change keeps on increasing.
3. Statistical Straight-Line Method (SSLM) – assumes that the change of values is constant
while the change in percentage of the data for the year is decreasing.
4. Statistical Parabolic Curve Method (SPCM) - assumes that the change in the values and
the percentage change could be decreasing or increasing.
Projected demand for Monoammonium Phosphate
Standard Deviation:
120,000,000.00
Aslm Projected demand of MAP
100,000,000.00
80,000,000.00
60,000,000.00
40,000,000.00
y = -419011x2 + 2E+09x - 2E+12
20,000,000.00 R² = 0.8793
-
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Aslm Projected demand Poly. (Aslm Projected demand)
Standard Deviation:
Year Y Year Yc
2006 125,409,615.65 2016 74,408,232.36
2007 92,590,361.07 2017 73,334,986.38
2008 43,782,708.94 2018 72,261,740.41
2009 66,673,829.76 2019 71,188,494.43
2010 96,734,206.52 2020 70,115,248.46
2011 52,897,542.71 2021 69,042,002.48
2012 64,181,879.21 2022 67,968,756.50
2013 76,576,608.82 2023 66,895,510.53
2014 85,650,198.65 2024 65,822,264.55
2015 98,613,900.87 2025 64,749,018.58
Standard 𝟐𝟐𝟗𝟓𝟑𝟕𝟒𝟔. 𝟕𝟒
Deviation
Standard Deviation:
𝑺𝑫 = 𝟐𝟐𝟗𝟓𝟑𝟕𝟒𝟔. 𝟕𝟒
100,000,000
Projected Demand
50,000,000 of MAP using SSLM
0 Poly. (Projected
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Demand of MAP
using SSLM )
-50,000,000
Standard Deviation:
𝑺𝑫 = 𝟏𝟔𝟐𝟒𝟓𝟏𝟓𝟎. 𝟐𝟗
Since SPCM have the lowest standard deviation, SPCM should be used to project the
demand of Monoammonium Phosphate for the next 10 years.
Demand
Year
(Net Weight in kg)
2018 149,212,783.41
2019 163,740,134.83
2020 179,383,336.21
2021 196,142,387.55
2022 214,017,288.84
2023 233,008,040.09
2024 253,114,641.29
2025 274,337,092.45
2026 234,775,832.63
2027 258,229,983.70
Projected supply for Monoammonium Phosphate
1. Arithmetic straight-line method (ASLM)
Standard Deviation:
-100,000,000.00
-150,000,000.00
Standard Deviation:
AGCM projection
250,000,000,000,000,000.00 y = 6E+14x2 - 2E+18x + 2E+21
R² = 0.3811
200,000,000,000,000,000.00
150,000,000,000,000,000.00
Projected
100,000,000,000,000,000.00 Supply
50,000,000,000,000,000.00
Poly.
0.00 (Projected
2000 2010 2020 2030 Supply)
-50,000,000,000,000,000.00
Year Y Year Yc
2006 94,439,823.00 2016 -5,167,330.87
2007 41,117,493.00 2017 -10,679,972.72
2008 26,371,430.00 2018 -16,192,614.56
2009 4,903,042.00 2019 -21,705,256.41
2010 1,464,173.00 2020 -27,217,898.26
2011 655,750.00 2021 -32,730,540.11
2012 45,604,401.00 2022 -38,243,181.96
2013 12,350,104.00 2023 -43,755,823.81
2014 22,268,032.00 2024 -49,268,465.65
2015 2,347,745.00 2025 -54,781,107.50
Standard 22,873,163.33
Deviation
Standard Deviation:
20,000,000.00
Poly. (Projected Supply
0.00 SSLM)
-20,000,000.002000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
-40,000,000.00
-60,000,000.00
-80,000,000.00
Standard Deviation:
150,000,000.00
Projected supply
SPCM
100,000,000.00
Poly. (Projected
50,000,000.00 supply SPCM)
0.00
2000 2010 2020 2030
-50,000,000.00
Figure 1.13 Graphical Representation of SPCM supply projection
Table 1.15 Summary of Standard Deviations
Method of Statistical Projection Standard Deviation
1. ASLM 35,314,798.05
2. AGCM 37,477,743.33
3. SSLM 22,873,163.33
4. SPCM 18,085,442.12
SPCM yields the lowest standard deviation among the 4 therefore, SPCM projection shall
be used in determining the supply for the next 10 years.
Table 1.17 Projected supply of Monoammonium Phosphate using SPCM projection for the next
10 years
Supply
Year
(Net Weight in kg)
2018 54,843,810.25
2019 65,095,887.41
2020 76,311,549.62
2021 88,490,796.87
2022 101,633,629.16
2023 115,740,046.50
2024 130,810,048.88
2025 146,843,636.31
2026 163,840,808.78
2027 181,801,566.29
Table 1.18 Projected Supply and Demand of Monoammonium Phosphate
YEAR PROJECTED DEMAND PROJECTED SUPPLY
(KG) (KG)
2018 149,212,783.41 54,843,810.25
2019 163,740,134.83 65,095,887.41
2020 179,383,336.21 76,311,549.62
2021 196,142,387.55 88,490,796.87
2022 214,017,288.84 101,633,629.16
2023 233,008,040.09 115,740,046.50
2024 253,114,641.29 130,810,048.88
2025 274,337,092.45 146,843,636.31
2026 234,775,832.63 163,840,808.78
2027 258,229,983.70 181,801,566.29
The projected supply and demand for the next 10 years shows that there is high amount of
unsatisfied demand here in the Philippines. This high amount of unsatisfied demand may
cause the companies using Monoammonium Phosphate to reduce their production rate
which may led to the company’s bankruptcy.
PLANT CAPACITY
For the annual production of the plant, 300 operating days will be allocated. Operation will
shut down for a total of 60 days this will happen during the months of July and November
for maintenance purposes.
Demand Supply
149,212,783.41 54,843,810.25
163,740,134.83 65,095,887.41
179,383,336.21 76,311,549.62
196,142,387.55 88,490,796.87
214,017,288.84 101,633,629.16
233,008,040.09 115,740,046.50
253,114,641.29 130,810,048.88
274,337,092.45 146,843,636.31
234,775,832.63 163,840,808.78
258,229,983.70 181,801,566.29
Unsatisfied Demand
The difference between projected demand and projected supply in the market. The
amount of demand not being satisfied by the supply circulating in the market. Unsatisfied
demand dictates the plant capacity for production to avoid over or under production in the
plant.
30,000,000,000.00
25,000,000,000.00
20,000,000,000.00
15,000,000,000.00
10,000,000,000.00
5,000,000,000.00
-
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Figure 1.17 Graphical Representation of Historical Demand and Supply of Phosphoric Acid
Projected demand for Phosphoric acid
Standard Deviation:
𝑺𝑫 = 𝟐, 𝟑𝟗𝟏, 𝟖𝟒𝟏. 𝟏𝟖
8,000,000.00
6,000,000.00
ASLM projection demand
4,000,000.00 y = -9572.6x2 + 4E+07x - 4E+10
2,000,000.00 R² = 0.8656
-
(2,000,000.00)2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
(4,000,000.00)
(6,000,000.00)
(8,000,000.00)
Standard Deviation:
𝑺𝑫 = 𝟐, 𝟖𝟔𝟑, 𝟑𝟒𝟓. 𝟔𝟗
0.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
-20,000,000.00
Year Y Year Yc
2006 6,229,792.00 2016 568,640.80
2007 2,294,513.00 2017 260,483.96
2008 816,172.00 2018 -47,672.87
2009 468,256.00 2019 -355,829.71
2010 2,986,482.00 2020 -663,986.55
2011 5,649,435.00 2021 -972,143.38
2012 1,367,274.00 2022 -1,280,300.22
2013 1,033,185.00 2023 -1,588,457.05
2014 635,278.00 2024 -1,896,613.89
2015 1,154,647.00 2025 -2,204,770.73
Standard 1,772,023.071
Deviation
Standard Deviation:
-6,000,000
-8,000,000
Standard Deviation:
𝑺𝑫 = 𝟏, 𝟕𝟓𝟕, 𝟑𝟓𝟒. 𝟕𝟎
1,000,000
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Since SPCM projection yields the lowest Standard deviation among the four
projection methods, it will be used in employing the projected demand for Phosphoric acid
for the next 10 years.
Table 1.9 Summary of Equations and R2 of different methods of projection
Demand
Year
(Net Weight in kg)
2018 1,325,121.97
2019 1,382,405.51
2020 1,455,345.49
2021 1,543,941.91
2022 1,648,194.78
2023 1,768,104.08
2024 1,903,669.83
2025 2,054,892.01
2026 216,598.52
2027 399,133.59
Projected supply for Phosphoric acid
1. Arithmetic straight-line method (ASLM)
Standard Deviation:
35,000,000,000.00
ASLM projected supply
ASLM projected supply
30,000,000,000.00
5,000,000,000.00
0.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Standard Deviation:
5,000,000,000.00
0.00
2000 2010 2020 2030
Year Y Year Yc
2006 94,439,823.00 2016 15,585,335,466.67
2007 41,117,493.00 2017 14,859,150,696.97
2008 26,371,430.00 2018 14,132,965,927.27
2009 4,903,042.00 2019 13,406,781,157.58
2010 1,464,173.00 2020 12,680,596,387.88
2011 655,750.00 2021 11,954,411,618.18
2012 45,604,401.00 2022 11,228,226,848.48
2013 12,350,104.00 2023 10,502,042,078.79
2014 22,268,032.00 2024 9,775,857,309.09
2015 2,347,745.00 2025 9,049,672,539.39
Standard 3,518,445,812.36
Deviation
Standard Deviation:
15,000,000,000.00
Poly. (SSLM projected
10,000,000,000.00 supply)
5,000,000,000.00
0.00
2000 2010 2020 2030
Standard Deviation:
30,000,000,000.00
y = 5E+07x2 - 2E+11x +
25,000,000,000.00 2E+14
R² = 0.3441
20,000,000,000.00 SPCM projected supply
5,000,000,000.00
0.00
2000 2010 2020 2030
SPCM yields the lowest standard deviation among the 4 therefore, SPCM projection shall
be used in determining the supply for the next 10 years.
Table 1.17 Projected supply of Phosphoric Acid using SPCM projection for the next 10 years
Supply
Year
(Net Weight in kg)
2018 17,900,526,295.45
2019 18,141,236,419.13
2020 18,426,672,654.55
2021 18,756,835,001.70
2022 19,131,723,460.61
2023 19,551,338,031.25
2024 20,015,678,713.64
2025 20,524,745,507.77
2026 21,078,538,413.64
2027 21,677,057,431.25
Table 1.18 Projected Supply and Demand of Phosphoric acid
YEAR PROJECTED DEMAND PROJECTED SUPPLY
(KG) (KG)
2018 1,325,121.97 17,900,526,295.45
2019 1,382,405.51 18,141,236,419.13
2020 1,455,345.49 18,426,672,654.55
2021 1,543,941.91 18,756,835,001.70
2022 1,648,194.78 19,131,723,460.61
2023 1,768,104.08 19,551,338,031.25
2024 1,903,669.83 20,015,678,713.64
2025 2,054,892.01 20,524,745,507.77
2026 216,598.52 21,078,538,413.64
2027 399,133.59 21,677,057,431.25
20,000,000,000.00
15,000,000,000.00
10,000,000,000.00
5,000,000,000.00
0.00
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
The projected supply and demand for the next 10 years shows that there will be
high amount of supply of Phosphoric acid here in the Philippines for the next 10 years.
There will be a huge difference between supply and demand according to the projection
used.
MARKET ENVIRONMENT
The market environment studies the selling price, competitiveness of product, transport
methods, channels of distribution and general trade practices for Monoammonium Phosphate. The
conditions mentioned is significant in order to determine the feasibility of production of
Monoammonium Phosphate in the country.
SPCM have the lowest standard deviation of all the projection method used.
However, AGCM projection have the highest price for the market price of
Monoammonium Phosphate for the next 10 years. Therefore, AGCM projection will be
used to determine the market price of Monoammonium Phosphate.
To ensure that the quality of the products stay high, Kemko Philippines will take
pride in handling and storage of Monoammonium Phosphate to avoid deterioration and avoid
safety problems. Primarily Monoammonium Phosphate is stored in a polybag. Monoammonium
Phosphate is commonly distributed in a bag of 50 kg. However, in cases of huge amount of orders,
Kemko Philippines will properly supply in bulk bags.
Kemko Philippines devised a method of transportation that will ensure to avoid the
deterioration of the product. The following are the general considerations applied to all modes of
transportation of Monoammonium Phosphate:
Monoammonium Phosphate should be stored in a cool dry place. Away from any
sources of ignition and heat and any oxidizing chemicals. Open flame source or
heat may cause a fire risk. The workers should wear full personal protective
equipment as there are excessive dust generation from the product which may pose
a health risk on the worker.
Since Monoammonium Phosphate can be delivered through polybags, it can be
easily delivered by trucks. However, the trucks must be ensured to be cool and dry
and free protected against water and spillage.
If there are spillage in the product, it must be dealt with in accordance to material
safety data sheet (MSDS) in order to ensure that there will be no harm to the
workers.
CHANNEL OF DISITRIBUTION
The methods of distribution are shown in fig 1.25, the Monoammonium Phosphate
is delivered to different companies producing different products. Kemko Philippines targets the
distribution of Monoammonium Phosphate into different companies that produce Polyurethane,
Polyamide and PVC. Companies that produces these materials are Neltex Inc, Sika Phils, INOAC
phils., and Emerald Industries.
In order to promote the product, the company will produce local publications and will
contact all the companies needing the Monoammonium Phosphate and all the distributors to
compare the margin of the price of the product. The sales marketing team will provide the
contacting of the clients to ensure that the product will be known amongst distributors and clients.
The sales marketing will also handle finding new clients worldwide to produce more partners for
the company.
putangina
All manufacturing plants must comply with the laws present in the country, and
standard industry practices in order to survive the competition from other companies. The
company is committed to survive and adapt the changing trends in the market, economy
and other factors that may affect the company while still improving as a company
producing and promoting high quality products and will guarantee that every process will
be efficient.
In order for the company to gain fame, it devised a marketing program which will
engage the company in a friendly environment and ensuring that the advertisements will
be worth looking to initiate the curiosity of the clients to try the products we produce.
A. Preposition
“Monoammonium Phosphate for your plasticizer needs.”