environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52

available at www.sciencedirect.com

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/envsci

The vulnerability context of a savanna area in Mozambique:

household drought coping strategies and responses to
economic change

Siri Eriksen a,*, Julie A. Silva b

a
Department of Sociology and Human Geography, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1096, Blindern, NO-0317 Oslo, Norway
b
Department of Geography and Center for African Studies, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-7315, United States

article info abstract

Published on line 18 December 2008 In this paper, we investigate the ways in which climate stressors and economic changes
related to liberalisation alter the local vulnerability context. Household and key informant
Keywords: data from two villages in Mozambique are analysed. First, we explore how changes such as
Economic liberalization increased market integration, altered systems of agricultural support, land tenure change
Coping strategies and privatisation of agro-industries may affect factors important for response capacity,
Climate change including access to local natural resources, employment opportunities, and household
Drought labour and capital. Next, we investigate how people related to the market while coping
Vulnerability with the 2002–2003 drought. The study reveals that there had been an increase in informal
Mozambique trade and casual employment opportunities; however, market relations were very unfa-
vourable and as the drought intensified, smallholders were locked into activities that barely
secured economic survival and which sometimes endangered long-term response capacity.
Only a few large-scale farmers had the capital and skills necessary to negotiate a good
market position in urban markets, thus securing future incomes. Inequality, social sustain-
ability, vulnerability and natural resource use are all closely linked in the savannas. Hence,
both climate change adaptation policies and sustainability measures need to target vulner-
ability context and the social and environmental stressors shaping it.
# 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction 2007). Climate change is likely to directly affect social

This study investigates how climate stressors and economic
changes related to liberalisation alter the vulnerability context
in terms of people’s capacity to respond to current and future
changes in a savanna area. Climate change represents an
important influencing factor on the sustainability of southern
African savannas. Southern Africa has been identified as one
of the areas most vulnerable to climate change; the region and
savanna areas in particular are exposed to long-term drying,
an increased frequency of droughts as well as floods (IPCC,
sustainability as defined by Eriksen and Watson (2009), in
particular in terms of inequality and poverty. Environmental
and economic sectors, such as agriculture, water and
biodiversity, are sensitive to changes in climatic conditions.
Economic and environmental sustainability may also be
indirectly affected through the ways in which humans respond
to climatic changes and the ways in which natural resources are
used. These uses include increased water abstraction for
irrigation or the growing use of charcoal, herbal medicines
and other forest products for income when harvests fail. The

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +47 22844728; fax: +47 22858751.

E-mail address: siri.eriksen@sgeo.uio.no (S. Eriksen).
1462-9011/$ – see front matter # 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2008.10.007
34 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
vulnerability of savanna populations and their responses to
climatic changes are therefore critical for the future sustain-
ability of the savannas.
There has been an emerging awareness in development
literatures that vulnerability and local responses to shocks
and change can only be understood through examining the
interactions between multiple stressors (Turner et al., 2003;
O’Brien et al., 2004; Wisner et al., 2004; Ziervogel et al., 2006;
Eriksen et al., 2008). O’Brien et al. (2009) explain that macro-
level social and environmental processes of change, including
climate change, the spread of infectious diseases and trade
liberalisation, are manifested among individuals, households
and communities as stressors in the form of gradual changes
or shocks, such as drought, floods, HIV/AIDS exposure, import
competition and currency devaluations. The social, economic,
political, institutional, environmental, technological and
cultural context in which these stressors are experienced
make up the vulnerability context.
The importance of contextual factors for exposure to
stressors and people’s capacity to respond to stressors has
been illustrated in several studies. The set of stressors
experienced by communities, households or individuals
depend on their particular circumstances, gender and types
of livelihood activities (Quinn et al., 2003; Tschakert, 2007).
Reid and Vogel (2006) observe that social factors such as
institutional capacity and governance as well as social capital
and access to transport infrastructure are important in
determining farmer responses to climate stress. Furthermore,
interactions between policies and natural resource use have
been shown to be particularly important in understanding the
large variations between settlements and between house-
holds within dryland dynamic environments and hence
critical to identifying how future interventions may affect
livelihoods and vulnerability (Twyman et al., 2004). Institu-
tional and political changes, such as restricted access to land,
water, services or mobility, can constrain the flexibility upon
which dryland communities depend when responding to
climatic change and other stressors (Thébaud and Batterbury,
2001).
Vulnerability in drylands cannot be attributed to climatic
factors alone, therefore, but to a multiplicity of contextual
conditions. These contextual conditions can be altered by
macro-level processes, such as economic, policy and legal
changes, that often take place outside the realm of a rural
community. In addition, a stressor in the form of drought or
exposure to HIV/AIDS generates responses, such as rural–
urban migration or sale of assets, and creates outcomes, for
example in terms of health, nutrition or poverty. These
responses and outcomes in turn influence exposure to other
stressors as well as the capacity to respond to them (O’Brien
et al., 2009).
We focus here on the ways in which a particular set of
changes related to economic liberalisation affect the vulner-
ability context in two rural Mozambican villages in terms of
household ability to respond to other stressors, in particular
climate-related stressors. O’Brien and Leichenko (2000) and
Leichenko and O’Brien (2002) suggest that there is a need for
the incorporation of economic globalisation into current
analysis of climate vulnerability. In particular, the manifesta-
tions of globalisation, including economic liberalisation and
the increasing levels of international trade, commercialisation
and export orientation, as well as falling political barriers to
trade and investment, are likely to shape future development
patterns (Watts and Goodman, 1997). Changes associated with
economic liberalisation, such as commodity price fluctuations
and the privatisation of former state enterprises, can
introduce new forms of risk into previously subsistence-based
economies as household incomes become more volatile
(Eakin, 2006; Dicken, 2007; Silva et al., 2008).
In the next section, we give a brief overview of past
literature regarding economic change and household
responses to shocks and change. We then describe the data
and methods used in the study before examining liberalisation
related societal changes, climate stressors, household
responses and vulnerability in two case study villages. We
conclude by discussing the implications of the findings for our
understanding of household vulnerability and sustainability
of savannas.
2. Theoretical framework and previous
empirical work
Increased trade and export-oriented economic growth policies
have been adopted by several development organisations as
well as national governments as a means of reducing poverty
(Cramer and Pontara, 1998; Onafowora and Owoye, 1998;
Rogerson, 2001; Owusu, 2003). Presumably, these policies can
also enhance drought livelihoods and reduce vulnerability.
However, some studies suggest that liberalisation has led to
the economic marginalisation of some groups and areas
(Bebbington and Batterbury, 2001; Mittelman, 2001; Jenkins
et al., 2002; Taylor, 2003). The awareness that economic
liberalisation is often linked to growing social, geographical,
and economic differentiation is increasing (Katz, 2004;
Perrons, 2004; Anderson, 2005; Chakravorty, 2006; Silva,
2008). It has been suggested for southern Africa that even
where international and domestic trade liberalisation mea-
sures favour producers of agricultural export commodities,
the same measures lead to a decline in relative prices for
small-scale farmers producing non-traded food crops, hence
increasing inequality (Wobst, 2003). While evidence of
economic liberalisation’s impact on poverty and social
differentiation exists (Knauder, 2000; Sheldon, 2002; Silva,
2007), less is known regarding how such economic changes
affect household vulnerability and coping strategies in the
face of climatic variability and change.
Context vulnerability literature emphasises that in order
to effectively reduce vulnerability, factors that influence a
generic capacity to respond to a variety of changes have to be
identified (O’Brien et al., 2007). This is in contrast to
approaches that disaggregate climate contribution to house-
hold adaptations (Thomas et al., 2007) or identify adjustments
to practices and technologies as a response to change in
specific climatic conditions related to longer-term climate
change (MICOA, 2000). Identifying vulnerability to current
variability and extremes is a good starting point for under-
standing vulnerability to any future changes in climate
because some of the social factors that make some house-
holds unable to respond today are likely to similarly affect
 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
households in future (Chambers, 1989; Smit et al., 2000;
Brooks and Adger, 2003; Kelly and Adger, 2000; Tschakert,
2007). However, the multiple changes to which people need to
respond simultaneously, such as import competition or the
HIV/AIDS pandemic, also have to be considered. Studying the
vulnerability context of households facing multiple stressors
can lead to insights into the key factors and processes that
may determine the vulnerability of southern African popula-
tions to future change, whether environmental or economic
in origin. We focus here on the capacity aspect of vulnerability
context, in terms of how processes linked to economic
liberalisation alter the context for responding to climatic
events and how such responses themselves alter the
vulnerability context.
In examining the capacity to respond to stressors, there is
much to be learnt from literature concerning coping. Coping
here signifies responses aimed at securing income, basic
needs and a quality of life during a drought or other climate
stressor. In a development context, several studies have
documented that rural populations have traditionally coped
with crop failure and climatic conditions that vary within and
between seasons by engaging in a multitude of alternative
income and food sources, depending for the most part on local
natural resources, including farmland, water and forests, and
on social networks, household labour and capital, employ-
ment opportunities, and local skills and institutions (Davies,
1993; Swift, 1993; Devereux and Næraa, 1996; Scoones et al.,
1996; Adams et al., 1998; Adger, 1999, 2000; Eriksen et al., 2005).
Hence, the above factors determine what responses an
individual or household is able to make. Liberalisation related
changes that alter these factors therefore influence the
vulnerability context.
In addition, liberalisation related changes may affect the
response capacity by altering coping strategies directly, for
example by making new forms of trade possible during
drought. Coping strategies are often considered short-term
survival strategies, although Corbett (1988) argues that house-
holds actively sequence and prioritize strategies in order to, as
far as it is possible, secure the stability of future incomes over
immediate needs. The ability to engage in such strategies in
the short term, as well as adapt livelihood activities to reduce
the risks in the longer-term are critical to vulnerability
outcomes.
Household responses that involve market relations vary
greatly in the way that they affect vulnerability outcome and
context. In particular, a distinction can be made between
responses for survival and those that are aimed at capital
accumulation and securing future livelihoods (Batterbury,
2001) or ‘responses to succeed’ (Ziervogel et al., 2006).
According to Batterbury (2001) livelihood dynamics in relation
to the market are distinctly political, with people ‘busy carving
out spaces between the market and the state, and between
modernity and local tradition’ (p. 457). The local realities of
resource access, livelihoods and broader societal processes are
important for how these spaces are created. Thomas et al.
(2007) observe that in villages in South Africa, the commer-
cialising of small-scale agriculture represents a generic
response for reducing risk in the face of climatic changes. A
critical question for vulnerability context, then, is who is able
to negotiate good market relations – gleaning reliable incomes
35
rather than insecure or marginal incomes – and hence carve a
space for mechanisms that secure future incomes rather than
immediate survival only. Differential response capacity
among households in terms of their varying command over
resources used in coping strategies, as well as ability to
respond ‘to succeed’ is contingent on social relations as well as
political and economic processes. Economic liberalisation is
likely to reshape market access by agricultural households,
thereby changing the premises and opportunities under which
these households respond to climatic changes and extremes,
including drought.
3. Methods
The main objective of this study is to identify the key features
that characterise the way in which climate stressors and
economic changes interact with the local vulnerability
context. With a focus on drought responses and market
engagement, empirical analysis was undertaken regarding
household vulnerability during the course of the 2002–2003
drought in two farming communities. The two villages were
both located in the Limpopo River Valley, Gaza Province in
southern Mozambique (see Fig. 1) and were exposed to the
2000 floods and the 2002–2003 drought. First, we explore how
economic liberalisation may affect factors important to the
general response capacity, including access to local natural
resources, employment opportunities, and household labour
and capital. We assess the manifestation of liberalisation and
environmental change processes in rural Mozambique,
recognising that changes such as increased trade, though
related to economic liberalisation, are often also due to other
factors such as the advent of peace and security. Literature
regarding evidence of long-term changes (focusing on Lim-
popo Basin, our case study area) is reviewed in addition to
examining empirical data from the two villages. Second, we
examine how people relate to the market when coping with a
drought by analysing household and key informant data,
focusing on who is able to secure future incomes rather than
immediate survival only, and the factors that determine the
success of such negotiations. Two rounds of data collection
took place, in August/September 2002 and June 2003, in order
to identify the viability of particular coping strategies under
increasing climate stress and distinguish how an intensifying
drought situation affected the way that people engaged in the
market. An underlying question for the study is how climate
and economic stressors together determine how vulnerability
is socially differentiated at the local level.
In addition to observing household responses and changes
during a drought year, the interviews enquired about people’s
experiences with economic and environmental changes and
shocks since the early 1990s. In the absence of data at the
household level that could document changes in market
integration and drought coping over a longer period of time at
one site, two villages were instead selected for comparative
analysis. The village Matidze in Mabalane District is relatively
isolated and has quite low levels of market integration, in
terms of volume of trade with regional and national markets.
In contrast, the village of Massavasse, located in the more
populous Chókwè District, has higher levels of market access
36 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52

Fig. 1 – Map of case study sites.

and integration. These villages exemplify variation but by no
means extremes in Mozambique, and were selected after an
investigatory reconnaissance trip to the districts, consulta-
tions with local authorities and experts, and initial discussions
and interviews with the village authorities.
An overview of the two sites is presented in Table 1. In
Matidze, cultivation takes place mainly in terms of small-scale
rain-fed farming, although there are a few smaller pump
irrigated farms. The district capital, the town of Mabalane, has
the nearest market, approximately 10 km away. At the time of
data collection, villagers could either go by train (running once
a week) or by car (daily but irregular) from Mabalane to
Chókwè, the neighbouring district capital, which provided the
nearest larger market. During the 2000 floods, crops, land, and
agricultural implements were lost in addition to the village
well. The village was also affected by the 2002–2003 drought in
terms of rain-fed crop failures, although less dramatically
than some other villages in the district and province.
Massavasse is set within an irrigation scheme and is
comprised of small, medium, and large-scale farms (defined
by Government of Mozambique as less than 5, between 5 and
10, and more than 10 Ha of cultivated land, respectively).
Among these, commercial farmers are those who cultivate
with the intention of selling most of their output to a regional
or urban market, compared to farmers that cultivate at a
smaller scale for home consumption and (mainly local) sales
to cover household expenses. The irrigation scheme was
established as the largest scheme in Mozambique under the
Portuguese, converted into state farms after independence,
and more recently changed over to large-scale commercial
farms (Newitt, 1995). The village is 14 km from the Chókwè
market, but because the village is only two kilometers from the
 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
Table 1 – Background to study sites.
Average rainy Market access
season rainfall (mm)
Matidze 261–270 Low: long distance to large
markets and little
transportation
Massavasse 503 High: close to large market
and easy transport
to urban markets
main road between Chókwè, Xai-Xai and Maputo, access to
public transportation to Chókwè is fairly easily available. The
larger markets in Xai-Xai and Maputo are also accessible. The
village was completely flooded and evacuated during the 2000
floods, water reaching up to 2 m on the walls of residential
houses. Farmland in the district was inundated by 4–8 m of
water during the floods and irrigation infrastructure destroyed
(Patt and Schröter, 2008). At the time of the study, the
irrigation scheme was in the process of being renovated in the
aftermath of floods. The village was also affected by the 2002–
2003 drought, although the lack of watering on some farms
was due to a combination of the drought and malfunctioning
gravity-based irrigation channels. Large commercial farms
reverted to pump irrigation when the irrigation channels were
not functioning. Irrigation farming often has high labour, seed
and input requirements and is geared towards cash crops,
introducing risks related both to production costs and to
market produce prices (Eakin, 2006; Ziervogel et al., 2006). In
Massavasse, medium and large-scale farmers typically culti-
vated rice and vegetables for sale while small-scale farmers
focused more on maize, beans, sweet potatoes and pumpkins
for their own subsistence and for sale. Many smallholders did
not have access to well irrigated land and were dependent on
rainy season rainfall for cultivation.
Household surveys, key informant interviews and group
interviews were carried out in the two villages. During the first
stage of data collection, 30 and 33 household interviews were
conducted in Matidze and Massavasse, respectively. The
household head or an available adult member of the house-
hold was interviewed, with a view to securing a gender
balance and age distribution among the respondents.
Although the questions concerned the household as a whole,
the household surveys also sought specific and differentiated
information for each household member where relevant. The
interviewees were selected through random sampling from
lists of households (random systematic procedure) provided
by the village authorities.1 Massavasse has 795 households
and Matidze 192 households (in the three zones surveyed).
Household interviews focused on market involvement and
strategies aimed at securing food and income as the drought
intensified. Each respondent was asked which sources of food
and income they had at the time of fieldwork in 2002, who in
the household engaged in each activity, whether the activity
was for consumption or sale, and where/to whom any sales
were made. Respondents were also asked about crop cultiva-
1
The questionnaire was written in Portuguese and conducted
with a local assistant who interpreted to the local language when
necessary.
37
Cultivation Number of Number of
households households
in village in sample
Small-scale rain-fed cultivation, 192 30
a few medium-scale
irrigation farmers
Small, medium and large-scale 795 33
irrigation farmers
tion, harvests and any sales of produce. Information regarding
factors relevant to general response capacity and vulnerability
context, including access to forests, employment, household
labour availability, access to agricultural inputs, information
and social infrastructure were also elicited during the inter-
views. Key informant interviews focused on allowing respon-
dents to elaborate their individual experiences with drought
and market involvement. Semi-structured in-depth and group
interviews were also conducted with key informants in each
village. The first round of interviews was carried out in
September 2002, when the drought had been ongoing for
several months but some farmers still had food left.
A second, follow-up round of key informant and ques-
tionnaire interviews was carried out in June 2003 when the
drought had become much more severe. The follow-up
interviews covered selected sections of the questionnaire to
investigate changes in residence, livestock, seed storage,
coping strategies, and climate information. The questionnaire
interviews were conducted with selected respondents from
the first round, including the most vulnerable individuals/
households, and commercial farmers. An additional 2–3 new
farmers in the commercial sector were also interviewed in
each village to investigate market participation and differ-
ences within and between the villages.
4. The influence of economic liberalisation on
vulnerability context
In this section, we review evidence from past studies in
Mozambique as well as empirical data from the two villages in
order to assess the potential effects of liberalisation related
changes, including trade liberalisation, reduction in state
agricultural support systems, privatisation and land tenure
reforms on some of the factors critical for response capacity.
The factors on which we focus here are agricultural incomes,
access to agricultural support, access to land and local natural
resources, employment opportunities, as well as household
labour and capital availability.
4.1. Climate stressors, coping strategies and trade in
Mozambican history
The Mozambican population, currently at about 21 million,
has been subject to several pressures on their livelihoods in
the past, including colonialism, civil war, economic policy
changes, as well as droughts and floods. Mozambique
encompasses great spatial and temporal climatic variability,
with the inland areas of the Gaza province bordering
38 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
Zimbabwe displaying very low average annual rainfall levels,
while other areas such as northern Mozambique receiving
much more rainfall (INGC/UEM/FEWS-NET/MIND, 2003). Rain-
fall also varies throughout the year, with the rainy season
occurring generally between October and April and the dry
season from May to September. The levels and distribution of
rainfall during the wet season varies from year to year, as is
characteristic of the southern African region (Hulme et al.,
2001). Wetter and drier periods have been a recurrent feature
in Mozambican history, the drier periods often building up into
severe droughts (Newitt, 1995).
Mozambique has experienced several severe extreme
weather events over the past decades, in the form of droughts,
floods and cyclones. During the 2000 floods, 700 people died
and 550,000 had to be relocated, and Mozambique’s annual
economic growth rate was reduced from 8% to 2% (Christie
and Hanlon, 2001). The 2002–2003 drought affected most of the
southern African region and left 659 000 people in Mozambi-
que in need of food aid (FEWS-NET, 2004). More recently,
Cyclone Favio which hit Mozambique on 22 February 2007,
caused widespread damage adding to the effects of floods
earlier the same month which had left 120 000 people
homeless.2 Climate stressors such as droughts and floods
are likely to intensify under future climate change, which may
lead to higher temperatures, rising sea levels, uncertain
changes in rainfall, drying, intense rainfall events, a shortage
of freshwater, reduced agricultural production, as well as the
inundation of some coastal areas (Joubert and Hewitson, 1997;
MICOA, 2000; Tyson et al., 2002; Boko et al., 2007).
Historic accounts since the 1500s until colonial times
recount that inland populations in Mozambique coped with
drought by intensifying hunting, gold mining and trading. If a
drought persisted, the population migrated to wetter areas,
often leading to competition between different groups for
available land (Newitt, 1995; Ombe, 2006). In addition to the
disruption of agricultural activity, many of those moving to
the coast ended up as slaves while others died from disease,
hunger and destitution. Transport and trade became almost
impossible since rivers all but dried up and inland areas
suffered from lack of food supplies. Portuguese authorities
tried to organise relief supplies and facilitate trade; however,
only small amounts of goods could be delivered (Newitt,
1995).
Trade has played an important role in rural livelihoods and
vulnerability context; in fact, coconuts have been exported
since the 15th century (Negrão, 1995). During the nineteenth
century, rural household production of cotton, oil seeds,
coconut, copra, sesame and ground nuts for trade and for
export to Europe increased. The trade was aided by the
Portuguese establishing and placing general stores at strategic
spots in agricultural areas and purchasers travelling to the
family plots for trading. Towards the end of the century, the
Portuguese colonial government attempted to gain control
over export incomes and transform smallholders into a cheap
labour pool for plantations and commercial farms through
introducing heavy taxation of the smallholder’s production of
food and cash crops in the form of money and compulsory
2
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/6385405.stm Cyclone
Favio Strikes Mozambique. BBC News Friday 23 February 2007.
work (Isaacman and Isaacman, 1983). In Gaza in particular,
forced labour and compulsory cultivation of cotton and rice
was intensified in the 1930–1960 period (Ombe, 2006). Free
trade was abolished and transport and transaction costs
increased for smallholders since there were no longer any
intermediaries. Prices were set at a low level by traders and the
government. The tax made it important for smallholder to
both seek employment, either on commercial farms or in
neighbouring countries, and to sell food crops for cash
incomes (Negrão, 1995). Money requirements meant that food
quantities beyond what was actually surplus was sold; at the
same time, people had less time to spend on food production
because of compulsory labour and employment outside the
household. This contributed to vulnerability to drought, such
as between 1943 and 1946 (Negrão, 1995; Tique, 2001).
The colonial companies were nationalised into state farms
after independence in 1975, providing employment as well as
buyers of produce from smallholders for processing. Sale of
produce was reliable and the prices set; however, prices
offered to producers were often low and payments tardy.
Inputs were provided to the smallholder sector, but they were
often delivered late or not at all. The smallholder sector also
suffered from the state’s attempts to control the sector
through giving party officials responsibilities for allocating
land, coordinating production and supplying material to
farmers (Bowen, 2000). People were moved into communal
villages which had social service provisions and which were
relatively safe, but production and trade were nevertheless
disrupted during the civil war that lasted from 1975 to 1992.
Food trade outside the government channels was also not
permitted and marketed agricultural production declined
dramatically during this period (Pitcher, 1998, 1999). As a
result, during drought, such as the one that occurred in the
early 1980s, people had monetary income from employment
or farming but there were few consumer goods to buy for the
money and food shortages ensued. Many communities
became dependent on government aid during the war (Tique,
2001; Bowen et al., 2003).
4.2. Economic liberalisation related changes in the rural
sector
The liberalisation of the economy has led to dramatic changes
in the rural sector in Mozambique over the past 15 years, with
increased export volumes of key agricultural crops and an
growing dependence on the fluctuating world prices for
agricultural produce. Other economic liberalisation related
changes concern systems of agricultural support and natural
resource management, a focusing of investment and exper-
tise on export agriculture, land tenure reform and the
privatisation of state farms and industries, all of which alter
the conditions under which small-scale farmers produce and
secure their livelihoods (O’Laughlin, 2001; Bowen et al., 2003)
and which are likely to influence factors important to the
vulnerability context. These developments are not due
exclusively to specific reforms to liberalise the economy
but may also be reinforced or modified by other societal
changes, such as the reestablishment of infrastructure
damaged by the war; hence, they are termed economic
liberalisation related changes here.
 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
Mozambique is often considered a model of economic
reform due to the results of the government’s implementation
of IMF-sponsored structural adjustment programs. The
Mozambican government began a series of market reforms
in 1987, the goal of which was to increase economic growth
and stability, break down trade barriers and encourage private
investment. Mozambique achieved extremely high economic
growth in the 1990s, reaching 12.5% in 1997 and averaging
nearly 10% in 1996–1999 (Fauvel, 2000; Tarp et al., 2002). The
reforms included the substantial liberalisation of the agricul-
ture sector. The government has eliminated nearly all fixed
prices, slashed support of cereal marketing, and ended
restrictions on external trade for most commodities. Officially,
almost all non-tariff barriers to trade have been eliminated.
Import licenses are still required but are used primarily for
statistical purposes (O’Laughlin, 2001; Silva et al., 2008).
As discussed in the previous section, export trade is not a
new activity introduced by economic liberalisation. O’Laugh-
lin (2001) points out that: ‘‘The livelihoods of rural Mozambi-
cans have long been linked to the market; they have no choice
to be there. What has altered are the ways and terms under
which they participate in the market and the place of the state
as agent and intermediary in markets’’ (p. 32). Economic
changes contribute to the altered vulnerability context by
affecting relations that smallholders have to the market in
terms of negotiating sales of produce, purchases of consum-
ables, agricultural inputs as well as employment conditions.
First, increased production for export represents income
opportunities. Exports of cotton and sugar by volume (metric
tons) have increased 550% and 334%, respectively, between
1987 and 2003 (World Bank, 2005). However, the trend also
means that farmers are increasingly at the mercy of interna-
tional prices and market conditions. Terms of trade for
Mozambique have declined by 26% between 1987 and 2003
and even though Mozambique is exporting more agricultural
goods, at least as evidenced by cotton and sugar, they actually
bring in less income. The total value of raw and processed
agricultural exports decreased by 52% from 1990 to 2003
(FAOSTAT, 2007). Given that small-scale farmers produce the
majority of the country’s agricultural exports, the declining
revenue from trade could have serious implications for
poverty eradication in the countryside. It has been noted
elsewhere in Mozambique that smallholders are reducing
their cultivation of cash crops such as cotton, due to a drop in
international prices (Tique, 2001; Bowen et al., 2003). Similarly,
price and trade liberalisation and the lifting of protectionist
measures within the cashew nut industry in the mid-1990s led
to most factories closing, and a loss of 10,000 jobs. With the
decline of domestic processing capacity and growing inter-
national competition, prices decreased and smallholder
production, which had previously accounted for 95% of the
marketed production of raw cashew nuts, also dropped (Kanji
and Vijfhuizen, 2004).
Second, the government has withdrawn from direct
involvement in production, processing, and marketing activ-
ities, that is, systems for agricultural support for small-scale
farmers have fundamentally changed. The agricultural sector
is dominated by smallholders involving about 3 million
families, which in total occupies about 95% of the currently
cultivated area (Tarp et al., 2002). In 1997, the agricultural
39
sector accounted for 34% of Mozambique’s GDP but employed
over 80% of the country’s workforce3 (World Bank, 2005). The
agricultural sector is the focus for rural development
(Government of Mozambique, 2001; Silva, 2008); however,
Bowen et al. (2003) argue that policies have greatly privileged
commercial and private farmers at the expense of small-
holders, leading to an increase in commercial farm hectarage
and a decrease in smallholder hectarage during the 1990s. In
particular, commercial farms are privileged with bank credit,
agricultural inputs and extension services.
Some of the large joint venture companies formed when
state farms were sold off after 1987 also contract small-scale
farmers, providing them with seeds and insecticides in
exchange for the right to purchase, for example, cotton. These
contract farmers still suffer from high labour requirements and
input prices as well as a lack of access to credit. Under this
system, contract smallholders with too little hectarage may not
even qualify for free inputs and smallholders who do not grow
cotton or other crops for joint ventures often have no access to
inputs at all (Bowen et al., 2003).
Third, land tenure, which is critical to people’s access to
natural resources, has been reformed. Land in Mozambique is
vested in the state; however, the new land law of 1997
designed to facilitate private enterprise as well as protect
community rights may lead to adjustments in livelihood
activities and affect the capacity to respond to climatic
fluctuations and change (Clover and Eriksen, 2009). It has
become easier for investors and private enterprises to obtain
land rights; while land cannot be sold or mortgaged,
individuals and communities have the right to occupy their
land, obtain a title document, and then rent it out for example
on a 50-year lease (Hanlon, 2004). It has been observed that
regardless of official land policy, land markets are emerging in
areas of prime commercial land and that only the most
commercially oriented farmers survive in these areas
(O’Laughlin, 2001).
Fourth, privatisation of state farms and the closing down of
some national industries are key aspects of economic liberal-
isation type reforms that affect the vulnerability context.
Formal employment has declined in Mozambique, especially
in areas formerly dominated by large state agro-enterprises,
such as Chókwè (Bowen, 1992). A polarisation of workers into
either skilled well paid workers or large numbers of part-time,
casual and low paid workers is a feature often associated with
globalisation (O’Laughlin, 2001).
4.3. Empirical findings in contemporary Mozambique
Based on the literature review presented in Section 4.2, one
would expect economic liberalisation type changes to have
increased income opportunities for some commercial farmers
but to have decreased incomes for others, especially for
smallholders. An important issue for vulnerability context is
3
The agricultural sector percentage of GDP is shrinking because
the country is making more money from aluminum smelting. In
2003 the agricultural sector accounted for 24% of GDP. Agricultural
employment declined less, to about 70% in 2002–2003 (Brück and
van den Broeck, 2006), partly because aluminum smelting does
not employ many Mozambicans.
40 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
the fact that export production in Mozambique may be
geographically and socially concentrated, however. Our two
case study villages indicated that smallholders neither benefit
from increased volumes of sale nor are they exposed to
fluctuating prices, at least directly. Silva et al. (2008) observe
that most households in the rural areas, Matidze and
Massavasse specifically, appear less affected by international
food prices and more dependent on the dynamics of local and
urban markets. Although there was previously a cashew nut
factory in Gaza province, none of the households interviewed
in our case study sites had produced cashews or been
employed in the industry. One household in Matidze had
previously produced cotton; however, they had all but stopped
production due to lack of profitability. Most other households
produced food for cash income, a trend also observed in other
areas of Mozambique (Bowen et al., 2003). Food crops
dominated at both locations though the production of typical
cash crops of rice, tomatoes and onions was vastly more
common in Massavasse (see Fig. 2). Crops that do well in dry
sandy soil, such as cassava, peanuts and watermelon, were
more prominent in Matidze. Farmers that cultivated crops
purposely for sale (as opposed to cultivation for own
subsistence and sale only in cases of surplus or an urgent
need of cash) numbered 19 out of the households interviewed
in Massavasse, compared to 7 in Matidze.
Even if smallholders are not directly participating in export,
market integration in the form of increased trade with district
and urban markets may create new rural income opportu-
nities. Key informants recounted a trend concerning growing
district markets in Chókwe and Mabalane over the past
decade. Peaceful conditions, as well as rehabilitation of the
infrastructure since the end of the war has meant that people
could now cultivate and trade in areas that were previously
unsafe, a process that may have contributed to enhanced
market integration. It has been observed elsewhere in Africa
that a combination of urbanisation and low prices for
agricultural export crops can lead to internal markets
increasing in importance relative to export markets (Morti-
more and Adams, 2001).
A second expectation from the review of liberalisation in
Mozambique is that the dismantling of government involve-
ment in processing and marketing has made access to inputs
and technical services more difficult for smallholders. While
Fig. 2 – Crop composition among interviewed households
in 2002. Matidze n = 30. Massavasse n = 33 (Silva et al.,
2008).
seeds, fertiliser and credit had previously been distributed
through state agricultural support systems, inputs could now
be bought in several shops in Chókwè; however, the costs of
travelling to Chókwè and buying the inputs were for many
disproportionately high compared to the incomes from sale of
produce. For example, a medium-scale farmer in Massavasse
explained that improved rice seeds were too expensive and he
could only afford to buy local, less productive seeds. Matidze
was plied only itinerantly by intermediary traders, had few
public means of transport and none of the interviewed
farmers traded directly at urban markets such as Xai-Xai
and Maputo.
Unlike the private companies in the colonial era, or state
companies in the socialist era, these intermediaries tend not
to provide credit or inputs to farmers. Interviews confirmed
that a lack of access to inputs, credit and marketing support
had made it increasingly difficult for smallholders and
medium-scale farmers in our study sites to produce large
enough volumes even for domestic urban markets. Only larger
scale farmers in Massavasse were producing for sale in the
urban markets. These were generally people who either had
employment, had previously had employment, or ran other
businesses and could therefore afford to buy the required
inputs, hire manpower, acquire market and technical infor-
mation, and transport produce to market.
Levels of agricultural support were geographically as well as
socially differentiated. Chókwè District, and in particular the
irrigation scheme, has played an important political and
economical role in Mozambican history (Newitt, 1995). Maba-
lane did not attract the same attention. 21 of the 33 households
interviewed in 2002 in Massavasse used fertiliser, compared to
only one of the interviewed households in Matidze, and the
companies selling fertilisers confirmed that they generally did
not sell to areas around Matidze. Although this difference was
also related to the soil in Massavasse requiring more fertiliser,
the focus on cash crops as well as easier access for Massavasse
farmers compared to Matidze farmers to companies located in
Chókwè were cited as important factors.
The differences in social and physical infrastructure, as well
as in government and donor investment were striking and these
differences had a direct influence on market opportunities and
vulnerability during the 2002–2003 drought. For example,
Matidze was exposed to incidences like an outbreak of foot
and mouth disease, partly due to the lack of cattle dips,
vaccination, or veterinary facilities. This undermined livestock
sales, normally a key drought coping strategy. While Massa-
vasse and Chókwè district were the target of increased
agricultural extension support, Mabalane district had no
agricultural extension agents at the time of data collection.
While 18 of the interviewed households in Massavasse had
received forecasts of the drought in 2002, this was the case only
for 4 of the interviewed Matidze households. Social services
provisions in terms of schools and health facilities were also
much better in Massavasse than Matidze. A cholera outbreak in
Matidze compounded vulnerability to drought during 2003.
While there had been huge recent donor and government
efforts to rehabilitate the Chókwè irrigation channels as well as
different projects introducing new crops and techniques,
Mabalane District had been the target of few projects, with
the exception of a flood mitigation pilot project that constructed
 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
a rainfall harvesting system and a rodent proof seed store
(Ramsbottom, 2005).
After the 2000 floods, there was a large programme of seed
and food distribution and food for work in Massavasse. Most
people seem to have been able to rebuild their houses, receive
seeds and recover. In Matidze, many households lost their
tools, agricultural land, and irrigation pumps, but no aid was
given towards recovery after the floods, directly affecting the
ability of farmers to irrigate and produce for the market during
the 2002–2003 drought. Key informant interviews with district
administrators indicate that the large geographical differences
in support were due to the authorities viewing commercial
irrigation agriculture as having ‘higher potential’ than rain-fed
agriculture, donor interest and preferences, as well as the
great extent of inundation and infrastructural damage in
Chókwè during the floods attracting enhanced attention.
A third key aspect of vulnerability related to land tenure
and access to natural resources. In the case study areas,
almost all households had access to some land; however,
access to the natural resources needed to respond to climate
stressors was still problematic for some. The village with most
commercial farming, Massavasse, exhibited a trend of con-
centration of land holding since many small-scale farmers
were unable to farm all of their land, citing lack of labour,
money for agricultural inputs, and tractor or animal draught
power required to cultivate. It was typically the small
landowners who were unable to farm all their land; in 2002,
9 of the 33 households interviewed cultivated only a portion (1/
4–2/3) of their land and these were all farmers with access to
3 Ha or less. Those with the most land in the sample (4–6 Ha)
cultivated all theirs. Key informant interviews revealed that
commercial farmers and companies were negotiating to rent
unused land in the village. Some of the larger local landowners
interviewed in 2003 were business people or former govern-
ment employees who acquired land when the state farm in
Massavasse was split up into private farms. Meanwhile, the
villagers interviewed in 2002 had access to an average of only
2.2 Ha of land and there was much competition for good
agricultural land. Emerging formal and informal land markets
were, in combination with high production costs, leading to de
facto loss of land rights and access to natural resources among
smallholders, a development further discussed in Holden et al.
(2006) and Clover and Eriksen (2009).
Such a development was less pronounced in Matidze,
which was not considered prime agricultural land. Although
farmers seldom cultivated all their land, this was partly due to
farming here being more extensive (although exact hectarage
was not known in Matidze, where plots were cleared by
Table 2 – Land access in 2002.
Owns Only rents Cultivates
landa land no land
Matidze n = 30 25 3b 0 3.2
Massavasse n = 33 24 8 1
a
The ‘Owns land’ category signifies that even though all land is formally vested in the state, the household has right of use through
occupancy, or allocation from village authorities or the former irrigation scheme.
b
No response = 2.
41
individuals with the permission of the village chief rather than
allocated from any irrigation scheme). Renting of land in
Matidze took the form of agreements between different
households and there were no large agricultural companies
present. In Matidze, all respondents cultivated both in upland
and lowland areas while respondents in Massavasse had plots
in the irrigation scheme or in the dry areas outside the
irrigation scheme but no upland plots. Matidze households
had on average a greater number, and in effect a higher
diversity, of plots than Massavasse households (see Table 2).
Farmers in Matidze could therefore use ecological diversity to
lessen the risk of harvest failure by farming both land which
was productive during droughts and other plots which were
productive during floods. It should be noted that although
almost all households in Massavasse had land within the
irrigation scheme, the quality of land varied greatly since only
some of the irrigation channels were actually working, leaving
many of the plots without water.
In Matidze, there was also easier access to forest resources
in the village forest while in Massavasse, the forests close to
the village had been cut long ago to create the irrigation
scheme. Nevertheless, natural resource management legisla-
tion meant to protect commercial interests may be threaten-
ing some small-scale farmer forest use; for example,
legislation to produce charcoal was geared towards large-
scale production and implied a financial and bureaucratic cost
that effectively only large-scale commercial producers from
the outside Matidze village could pay.
A pattern of decreasing formal employment and increasing
casual employment was apparent in the case study areas,
consistent with the fourth expectation from the review of
literature. Unable to produce enough for subsistence and cash
needs, many people in Massavasse were turning to casual
employment on commercial farms on an almost permanent
basis. While people in Massavasse could get formal employ-
ment at the state farm in the past, private commercial farmers
who had taken over relied much more on casual labourers
hired from day to day without a contract. In addition,
households in both Massavasse and Matidze were facing
reduced formal employment opportunities in South Africa.
Remittances were previously an important source of income
to tide people over during drought but due to high unemploy-
ment and the move away from contract employment to use of
casual workers in South Africa (O’Laughlin, 2001), few
Mozambicans are granted legal work status. Instead, inter-
viewees in Matidze and Massavasse explained that many
cross the border illegally and seek informal work at the risk of
being expelled from South Africa to return to the village
Mean number of Cultivates upland Has irrigated
plots/household and lowland plots land
30 0
1.3 0 27
42 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
without salary or possessions. The creation of the transborder
national park on the South Africa/Mozambique/Zimbabwe
border (see O’Brien et al., 2009) has also made crossing the
border increasingly dangerous. While some men in Massa-
vasse had been able to improve their houses and material
standard of living through formal employment in South
Africa, in Matidze, migration was increasingly seen as an
option for young males to seek better lives for themselves
rather than as a means of supporting their family. In Matidze,
nine of the interviewed households had family members
working or currently seeking employment in South Africa
while six households had household members engaged in
casual employment for local commercial farmers. Massavasse
had more outside employment with 15 of the interviewed
households having family members working or currently
seeking employment in South Africa and 16 households
having household members engaging in casual employment
for local commercial farmers.
4.4. The changing vulnerability context
It is clear that Mozambicans have responded to a number of
changes in recent history which have influenced the vulner-
ability context. The interviews did not directly investigate the
effect of liberalisation on local informal social networks,
knowledge and institutions. These are also important to local
response capacity. Any such changes are likely to take place in
interaction with other key stressors. Exposure to HIV/AIDS, for
example, puts stress on social networks of support and breaks
up families. Chókwè District has one of the highest HIV/AIDS
prevalence rates in Mozambique (INGC/UEM/FEWS-NET/
MIND, 2003) estimated at 23% of the total population;
neighbouring districts, such as Mabalane, are also believed
to have a high prevalence rate (Chókwè Catholic Hospital
Estimate, November 2002). This rate compares with national
estimates of 12.5–20% in 2005 (UNDP, 2008).
The investigation above nevertheless suggests that liberal-
isation related changes have impacted many of the key factors
for response capacity and vulnerability context. In particular,
employment opportunities have been transformed. Household
labour and capital resources appear highly differentiated as
only a few households are able to invest capital and hire labour
while the vast majority, especially in Massavasse, have a labour
deficit due to the necessity of doing casual employment outside
the household. There is increased competition with commer-
cial interests over access to land and natural resources. Since
agricultural services in terms of expertise, inputs and marketing
support has shifted from the sphere of state institutions to the
private sector, access has declined for the smallholders. While
there are more trade and casual employment opportunities
than under socialist policies, these opportunities are unreliable
and the terms under which households engage in the labour
and agricultural markets are unfavourable. Because cash needs
to cover production inputs and household expenses are at the
same time increasing, the colonial pattern of labour deficits and
low intensity food crop cultivations subsidizing wage labour,
leading to structural risks and food insecurity among small-
holders, is in some ways reproduced.
The practical implications of these changes for households
and individuals are illustrated by the story of ‘‘João’’, a
respondent who lived with his two siblings, his wife and in
total seven children in their house in Massavasse. The
household had a 1 Ha plot of farmland within the irrigation
scheme, as well as a small rain-fed plot outside. However, the
irrigation channels were not functional and the land could not
be farmed. In return for labour, they were borrowing a small
plot of 0.5 Ha from farmers elsewhere in the scheme where the
irrigation scheme was functioning. Currently, they were only
growing maize on the borrowed plot using seeds borrowed
from neighbours as they did not have the money to buy rice
seeds. The production was mainly for their own consumption,
although they sold some at Chókwè market in order to be able
to buy fertilizer and pay the irrigation authorities for the water
used for irrigating the borrowed plot.
With the increase in commercial farmers over the past 20
years, it had become easier to get casual employment than
previously. Because these farmers had their own pumps, they
continued farming even when parts of the irrigation channels
were malfunctioning or there was a drought. As the household’s
own agricultural production was low, João’s main economic
activity was casual employment on the commercial farms. The
pay was barely enough to meet daily needs, however, and the
activity prevented him from tending his own crops, spending
only Saturday and Sundays on his own farmland. As a result, his
own farm output further suffered, he was unable to spend time
maintaining his house properly, and he lost respect in the
village as he did not grow his own food but had to buy most of
the food his family needed. As the drought progressed, getting
casual employment became increasingly difficult, and in April
2003, João left for South Africa. By July 2003 he had still not been
able to send back any remittances and his wife sought casual
employment nearly daily to make ends meet. Due to the
drought, the maize on the borrowed plot had failed. As people
were coming to the irrigation scheme from all the surrounding
areas to seek casual employment on the commercial farms,
getting employment was difficult. Hence, economic conditions
forced the household to allocate most of its labour to casual
employment and migration, leading to a shortage of labour on
the farm and at the same time failing to secure enough income
to invest in agriculture.
5. Responses to drought and changing market
conditions
The previous section showed how historical events and
contemporary processes of global economic and environmental
change have reshaped the landscape of rural vulnerability in
savanna communities in Mozambique, in terms of factors
related to response capacity. In this section, we examine how
individuals and households in Matidze and Massavasse secured
their livelihoods during the 2002–2003 drought, particularly
focusing on how people negotiated market-related strategies
and how intensification of the drought affected the ways that
they could successfully relate to the market.
5.1. Market engagement in drought coping strategies
The data collected mapped the distribution of coping
strategies among 63 different households in September 2002
 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
Fig. 3 – Number of households engaging in drought coping
strategies in September 2002 in Matidze (n = 30) and
Massavasse (n = 33).
(see Fig. 3). Fig. 4 shows the mean monthly rainfall for Chókwe,
which has an average rainy season rainfall totalling 503 mm.
Mabalane is located in a slightly drier zone where rainy season
rainfall totals 261–470 mm (INGC/UEM/FEWS-NET/MIND,
2003). Fig. 5a and b shows that rainfall has varied greatly
from year to year in the case study area. A comparison of
gridded data with station data for 1961–1990 and INGC/UEM/
FEWS-NET/MIND (2003) revealed that the gridded data over-
estimate rainfall levels slightly but represent interannual
variability in rainfall fairly well.
Fig. 5a and b indicates that the total annual rainy season
rainfall for each of the years 2001–2003 for our study area is
slightly, but not dramatically, below average. A serious
agricultural drought nevertheless developed, possibly because
there were three consecutive years of below-average rainfall,
because the rainfall that came was unfavourably distributed
throughout the season, and because planting was impaired by
the loss of seeds, implements and agricultural land during the
2000 floods.
Fig. 4 – Mean monthly rainfall in mm, 1961–1990, Chókwe.
Calculated from 27 years of available data for Caniçada,
near Chókwè town, CRU station precipitation data (Hulme,
1992). Caniçada is located at 248500 S 338000 E compared to
Chókwè’s location of 248320 S 328590 E.
43
Coping strategies differed both between villages and
between households. In Matidze in 2002, many households
still had some food stored but had also diversified into a
multiplicity of strategies, many of which were based on
market transactions. Key informants reported an increase in
trade activities in the villages compared to 10 years ago, in
terms of the numbers of kiosks, shops and visits by traders.
Although there has been an increase in market related
activities, the type of market engagement was highly
differentiated among the households. Most of the market
interaction was local and small-scale. The sale of alcoholic
brew, charcoal, livestock, poultry, artisanal products such as
reed mats, and wild fruits were carried out in or near the
village. These products were sold or bartered to other villagers
or to itinerant traders and middlemen. The unreliable nature
of remittances and casual employment has already been
mentioned; households also had a weak position in the market
concerning farm and other household products. Respondents
explained that since traders came so irregularly, farmers had
to accept whatever price they were offered for their products.
These are forms of trade that are often not formally
enumerated by the authorities nor supported by market
infrastructure and information. Only two or three medium-
scale farmers in the village were able to produce enough to
hire a vehicle to take the produce to the Chókwè market where
there were more buyers and prices were better.
Massavasse households seemed to diversify to a greater
extent into agriculturally based market activities during
drought such as the sale of vegetables, casual employment
on farms and into a wider range of markets (urban and
domestic regional markets for produce and the South African
labour market for employment) than Matidze households.
This is likely to have been due to the fact that they had easier
physical access to such markets as well as the absence of
village grazing lands and forests in Massavasse. The collection
of wild fruit for sale and own consumption, charcoal
production, as well as sales of livestock and poultry were less
common than in Matidze. Fewer people kept livestock, and
often kept only smaller livestock (goats and sheep) or poultry
(see Fig. 6). Most households in Massavasse were growing
vegetables for their own consumption or for sale in the village
or in Chókwè; however, unlike Matidze there were a few
wealthier commercial farmers who were able to sell large
quantities at the markets in Maputo at a profitable rate. In both
villages, social networks in terms of assistance from friends,
family and neighbours as well as being able to purchase on
credit from a shop were important for some households.
Although this study focused mainly on the household,
there are likely to be intra-household variations in vulner-
ability. It has been noted, for example, that women engage in
different activities than men. Infrastructural deficiencies in
health services and water provision often impact women
particularly harshly in their efforts to secure non-monetary
production in the household, such as water and food for
consumption (O’Laughlin, 2001; Tschakert, 2007). An exam-
ination of women’s participation in coping strategies in 2002
revealed that local trade, casual employment and vegetable
cultivation were activities in which women were dominant in
both villages, mostly at a small-scale and local level. They
were, however, more dependent on a husband for remittances
44 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52

Fig. 5 – Annual variation in total rainy season rainfall (January to April and October to December each year), in mm, 1901–
2006, CRU TS 3.0 dataset. (a) for the Massavasse study area, based on rainfall data for 0.5 T 0.5 degree grid covering
Massavasse. Mean rainy season rainfall 1961–1990 is 574 mm. (b) for the Matidze study area, based on rainfall data for
0.5 T 0.5 degree grid covering Matidze. Mean rainy season rainfall is 487 mm. Analysis is based on unpublished updated
high resolution grids of monthly climatic observations from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, by kind
permission of P.D. Jones, I.C. Harris and T.J. Osborn (updated using similar methods to Mitchell and Jones, 2005).

and were less involved in livestock sales, charcoal production,
or more profitable sales of produce for urban markets. There
was hence both a social, geographic and gender profile to the
distribution of drought coping strategies and the market
positions that the activities involved.
‘‘Maria’’ illustrates the nature of market interactions in the
category ‘local trade’, here signifying small-scale sales from a
village kiosk or from home. Maria was a single mother and was
one of the first persons in Matidze to set up a kiosk in the
village. Borrowing money from her sister, she initially started
this business in 1998 because her husband went to South
Africa and stopped contributing to the household. In Septem-
ber 2002, she was bartering maize for household goods such as
cooking oil, salt, tea leaves and sugar, in addition to soft drinks
and alcoholic beverages. Travelling either by train or by getting
rides from passing trucks/cars from nearby Mabalane, she
would bring the maize to the Chókwè market where she
exchanged the maize for household goods and drinks. The
 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
Fig. 6 – Number of households owning livestock and
poultry in September 2002 in Matidze (n = 30) and
Massavasse (n = 33).
difference in exchange rates between these products in
Matidze and Chókwè sustained her business and household
expenses. In 2002, she appeared to be slightly better off than
average in the village. She said that at the time of harvest,
when people had more maize to exchange for household
goods, she could even afford to pay someone to farm her fields.
The greatest constraint on her business was the unreliability
and expense of transport to the market in Chókwè. The train
only ran once a week and cars were only seen irregularly along
the main road. She said that the number of traders in the
village had increased over the past four years as people had
seen her success at the same time as harvests had failed.
Interestingly therefore, petty trading and shop tending had
increased as a response to the drought, even though local
purchasing power and trade had decreased at the same time.
5.2. Intensification of the drought—market engagement
for survival
A shift in coping strategies as the drought progressed indicates
that the drought vulnerability context influenced the way that
people were able to relate to the market. It appeared that
engaging in market based activities was often used as a
method of securing basic consumption needs at the beginning
of the drought, but as the drought intensified modes shifted
towards market engagement that barely secured survival.
Findings suggest that people in both villages – and especially in
Massavasse which had the highest levels of market integra-
tion overall – had evolved drought coping strategies as a
response to emerging market and trade opportunities. How-
ever, many of these activities were not very viable during a
prolonged drought. The wider variety of strategies, including
market based activities, observed at the beginning of the
drought were followed by a narrowing of activities as the
drought intensified.
The narrowing of opportunities could largely be attributed
to the local cash economy nearly closing down as the drought
progressed. People had to increasingly shift away from village
level trade and turn to the outside market in terms of
Mabalane, Chókwè and urban areas such as Maputo (directly
through trade or indirectly through casual labour for com-
mercial farmers), as local food stocks and peoples’ incomes
dwindled. In Matidze, only very few farmers such as former
45
commercial farmers, had any food stocks or seeds remaining
by June 2003. Storing food was less common in Massavasse
than in Matidze, and by 2003 only farmers that were
commercial producers and able to buy food had any food
stocks left. Key informant interviews revealed that activities
on which some households had been dependent in 2002, such
as local sales of handicraft, casual employment, or renting out
of a cart to villagers, became more difficult or even unavailable
in Matidze in 2003 since local purchasing power was low and
since there were no large-scale commercial farmers in the
village that could provide employment. Similarly, although
the onset of the drought had seen an increase in the
construction of kiosks, the petty trade and shop commerce
had all but died out by 2003. None of the stalls were in
operation and only the sale of brew and kerosene from homes
remained.
Instead, a few other activities had become dominant in
Matidze by June 2003, such as the engaging in horticultural
production for consumption and sale. A social differentiation
in negotiating market relations was apparent in the produc-
tion of horticulture in Matidze. Despite the fact that most
commercial farmers in Matidze lost their pumps during the
2000 floods, which underlines the observation by Brouwer and
Nhassengo (2006) that richer households in the Mabalane
District were also vulnerable to the 2000 floods, commercial
farmers still produced more than the rest of the villagers
during the 2002–2003 drought. This was due to their capital
assets and their ability to invest family and hired labour in
farming, digging wells, as well as fetching water for irrigation
using an ox-cart (though areas watered were smaller than
those which were previously pump-irrigated). Farmers with
capital could invest in fencing off an area of the farmland,
using barbed wire, which most others could not afford, to keep
hungry livestock from eating horticultural crops. These areas
were relatively fertile and yielded a diversity of produce,
including pumpkins, beans, and sweet potatoes. Some of these
farmers had sufficient produce to be able to sell to inter-
mediaries at the Mabalane or Chókwè Markets.
Most smallholders who engaged in horticultural produc-
tion as a coping strategy, however, were unable to irrigate
fertile farmland and were instead increasingly forced to plant
crops in the river bed where there was still some moisture and
the plants could easily be watered. Watering and fencing the
crop were labour-intensive, but although the river sand was
not very fertile, pumpkins could be grown yielding leaves,
flowers and small pumpkins for own consumption. Sweet
potato leaves were also harvested. For household goods that
needed to be bought, or for other expenses, small quantities of
pumpkin and sweet potato leaves could be sold to consumers
at the Mabalane market. This activity emerged as one of the
few sources of income that most people, especially women,
had access to.
Another coping strategy that had become dominant by
2003 in Matidze was the production and sale of charcoal. The
cutting of poles from indigenous trees in the forest was also
fairly common. These two products were sold to traders who
would collect the products from the forest in trucks, or at the
Mabalane market. This was a labour-intensive activity and
was mainly carried out over longer periods of time, such as a
week in duration. While based on local inputs in terms of
46 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
labour and forest resources, it was targeted towards the
outside market, primarily the urban population (Xai-Xai and
Maputo) for whom charcoal is the main energy source for
cooking. The trade was almost exclusively informal, however,
as almost none of the local households in Matidze had a
licence for charcoal production, and the market position of
small-scale producers was marginal. Charcoal was being
produced in most of the province (Gaza), and the intermedi-
aries would not come very often to Matidze. People had no
alternatives but to sell even at very low prices because they
had no food. There were few alternative outlets for their
products. This meant that while goods such as charcoal or
livestock were sold at a low price, food prices were high in
areas away from Chókwè. For example, 20 kg maize cost 200
000 Meticais (about 5 GBP) in Mabalane, compared to only 80
000 Met (about 2 GBP) at the Chókwè market. Since Matidze got
no food aid and Massavasse villagers said their main form of
aid was the work for food programme, food aid was unlikely to
have any significant effect on prices.
In Massavasse, households similarly oriented their coping
strategies towards outside markets. Although they had easier
access to such markets than Matidze households, the
character of market relations varied greatly between house-
holds. Horticultural production and charcoal production were
less common as coping strategies among smallholders in
Massavasse since the village is neither located near the river
(and watering by hand from the channels is difficult within the
irrigation scheme lands) nor near a forest. Instead, casual
employment was a dominating income earning activity in
2003. Most casual employment was provided by commercial
agriculture. People were commonly paid 20 000 Meticais for a
day’s casual employment, this is equivalent to about 50 pence
and barely enough to cover a meal for a family. Engaging in
almost continuous casual employment only just secured
survival and limited time spent working their own farm.
The internal differentiation between small-scale farmers
and the commercial farmers in Massavasse was pronounced.
In Massavasse, small-scale farmers were unable to harvest
enough to sell due to the drought and the malfunctioning of
the irrigation scheme. Commercial farmers who had their own
irrigation pumps were doing fairly well. Although they had to
decrease the land cultivated and had increasing costs (diesel
for the pump) they were getting good prices for their
horticultural crops as the domestic production in Mozambique
was low due to the drought. Some commercial farmers had
their own trucks with which they would bring their produce
directly to the markets in Maputo, Xai-Xai and Chókwè. They
used mobile phones and a network of people who could
inform them of the daily market conditions, and could thus
select the most profitable market. Being able to sell directly to
the market in Maputo (e.g. to wholesalers there who would
buy tomatoes by the case) meant that they did not have to
access the market indirectly through intermediaries, and they
could also sell larger quantities.
Smallholders in Massavasse, meanwhile, engaged in the
district market through petty trade as a response to the
drought. People who could not farm due to the drought bought
vegetables directly from other farmers and brought them to
the market where they sold them to local consumers who did
not produce their own food or had no food stocks left. Other
traders bought charcoal from middlemen or producers and
sold to local consumers in Chókwè. Although the number of
formal shops and informal kiosks operating in Massavasse
had increased up until 2002, the activity had slowed down by
2003 with some shops closing and the remaining shops
limiting their stock, focusing on drinks; activity had hence
shifted to Chókwè market. Key informant interviews at the
Chókwè market revealed that smallholder incomes could not
compare to those of commercial farmers trading large
quantities in urban markets. Unlike horticulture sales by
Matidze farmers in Mabalane market, however, sales from
Chókwè market were formal in nature and remunerated by
the local government and there was a higher diversity and
volume of trade.
The shift in strategies is illustrated by our woman trader in
Matidze, ‘‘Maria’’. By 2003 when the drought had intensified,
she had had to shut her kiosk as people had no maize or
money with which to purchase her products and she had little
money with which to stock her shop. Instead, she had turned
to cultivating pumpkin and sweet potatoes in the river bed.
She used these for her own consumption or, when she needed
to buy food and household consumables, she would take a
small amount to the Mabalane market where she spent most
of the day waiting for a buyer. In the evening, she used the
meagre income from sales to buy food or consumables in the
market or shops before she returned home. However, as most
women in Matidze and the neighbouring villages were turning
to selling pumpkin and sweet potato leaves as a source of
income, successfully selling all of her produce was not
guaranteed. The price of food and consumables in Mabalane
were twice that of Chókwè, but she could not afford the travel
to Chókwè based on what little produce she had to sell.
In contrast, ‘‘Luis’’ was a large-scale commercial farmer in
Massavasse with plots in irrigation schemes in several other
neighbouring villages. Rice and tomatoes were his principal
crops, while he also grew onions and cabbage on a small-scale.
He had previously been employed by the government and
owned a small plot but as the state farms were divided up and
given to private farmers, he was able to get 120 Ha in 1987. The
irrigation scheme was being renovated but some channels
were still not functioning properly and the drought was
causing further problems in most areas of the irrigation
scheme. He was one of 6–7 farmers in Massavasse who had
their own pumps and could continue farming. His pump took
water directly from the river and he was able to plant 35 Ha of
tomatoes that season. The prices for a 22–25 kg box of
tomatoes could vary from 15 000 to 200 000 Meticais (about
40 pence to 5 GBP) depending on supply. The price was at 80
000 Meticais (about 2 GBP) in June 2003, which he thought was
a good price and twice the price needed to break even. As such
‘‘the high prices compensate for the bad times’’. As he owned a
truck, he brought the tomatoes to the market himself,
generally selling in Maputo. In August, he expected to sell
15–20 000 kg of tomatoes every day.
The examination above shows that the viability of market
based coping strategies was highly differentiated in the two
case study villages. The contrast was great between commer-
cial farmers selling tomatoes in Maputo and small-scale
Matidze farmers trying to sell pumpkin leaves locally or
Massavasse farmers seeking casual employment in competi-
 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
Table 3 – Household vulnerability outcomes in Septem-
ber 2002.
Reduced Children
number of meals missed school
Matidze (n = 30) 26 10
Massavasse (n = 33) 11 3 opportunities and flexibility in the short term for poor house-
tion with many others. The former was able to secure future
livelihoods and even benefit from the drought; the latter two
were often unable to secure even basic needs. There were two
features that made market relations in drought coping
disadvantageous for many smallholders. First, though aimed
at the outside market, market access was indirect and
involved intermediaries. Second, most coping strategies were
activities that an increasing number of people were under-
taking; thus, it was a buyer’s market. Unfavourable market
relations were most pronounced in Matidze, but market
relations were highly differentiated in Massavasse, where
households dependent on casual employment were particu-
larly marginalised and in danger of losing their own farming
livelihoods.
The drought context and market relations, characterised by
poor bargaining power and low and unreliable incomes for
most smallholders, meant that these households were
surviving rather than securing basic consumption or future
incomes. This can be illustrated in terms of the vulnerability
outcomes evident in the interview data. Table 3 summarises
the effects of the drought in the two villages, showing that
severe effects like missing meals or children being unable to go
to school due to hunger or need to assist the parents in drought
coping strategies were present in both villages, though more
pronounced in Matidze.
6. Discussion and conclusions
This study reveals that there are several key features of the
way that climate shocks and economic changes related to
liberalisation interact to generate the local vulnerability
context. First, liberalisation affects factors critical to the
general response capacity. Liberalisation related changes have
contributed to reducing labour availability in many house-
holds, concentrating capital availability in a few households,
and reducing formal employment opportunities while
increasing informal employment. Smallholders also have to
face growing competition from the commercial interests in
accessing land and natural resources. It appears that in
societies where smallholders have little access to export
markets, fluctuation of world market prices per se may be less
important than other liberalisation related economic changes
that affect the operation of domestic trade and employment
markets, including withdrawal of state involvement in
marketing and agricultural services, privatisation of state
farms and industries, policy favouring of commercial export
producers and land tenure reform. Second, economic liberal-
isation related changes have also affected people’s response
capacity in terms of the extent to which involvement in
market based drought coping strategies ensure survival, basic
needs, long-term livelihood security or economic success.
47
The findings have several implications for the theoretical
understanding of how the process of liberalisation changes
market involvement and the ways in which people cope with
droughts. In particular, our findings suggest that liberalisation
involves a contradictory trend of increasing market-based
holds as a drought strikes, and long-term livelihood security
being undermined by the marginality of those same strategies
over time. There has been increasing market involvement since
liberalisation and there was a rise in these activities during the
drought. We find that people are able to evolve their drought
coping strategies and access new opportunities offered by
increased trade and commercial activity. However, market
involvement for these households has at the same time become
increasingly informal (such as casual employment or sale of
produce to itinerant traders) and it is unreliable.
This contradictory trend is due in part to the altered role of
the state, which affects the market relations that people can
negotiate. Smallholders have been involved in employment
and trade for decades, if not centuries, and have always been
highly dependent on it also when coping with drought. Hence,
the issue is not whether or not people are excluded from the
market but rather what conditions the rural populations are
able to negotiate with employers and traders, as suggested by
O’Laughlin (2001). Most smallholders are unable to negotiate
favourable market relations, the exchanges are barely enough
to secure survival during drought, partly due to a lack of skills,
capital, market information, and government support. This is
manifest in the marginal benefits gleaned when they have to
turn to outside district and urban markets as a drought
intensifies, engaging in, for example, casual employment on
commercial farms or the sale of charcoal. Therefore, while
people do use markets to cope with droughts, they are unable
to cope well in the sense of being able to secure basic needs or
long-term security. There are a smaller number of larger
commercial farmers who are able to produce for the district
and urban market at more advantageous conditions, and who
manage to secure long-term livelihoods and possibly even
benefit from the increased prices of produce during drought. In
contrast to what has previously been observed in South Africa
and Mexico (Eakin, 2006; Ziervogel et al., 2006) it was not the
farmers who engage in the most labour intensive single crop
irrigation farming that were most vulnerable to climate
variability since these were mainly farmers with more land
and capital and who could pump irrigate and hire casual
labourers. Instead, it was the smallholders who were most
affected by the irrigation scheme not functioning and the
shortage of money to invest in farming and who experienced
harvest failure. Lack of access to ecologically diverse natural
resources also constrained response capacity among small-
scale farmers in Massavasse.
In the interaction between economic liberalisation and
climate stress, land, labour and capital are hence critical for
engaging in market-based strategies that can secure liveli-
hoods in the long-term, a finding that concurs with previous
studies of the interaction between market and climate risk in
Mexico (Eakin, 2006). Policies and regulations favouring
commercial actors have reduced the space that smallholders
can negotiate, for example in terms of land access, labour
conditions and access to credit. Smallholders are being
48 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
squeezed out of farming in Massavasse due to increasing cash
needs in agricultural production, to pay for household
expenses and to buy food as well as a shortage of household
labour for cultivation. In both villages the smallholder’s
dependence on unreliable and poorly paid off-farm activities
may threaten household labour and capital availability for
other activities, as well as food security. Rain-fed smallholder
areas such as Matidze receive very little government support
or aid compared to the Massavasse irrigation scheme. Matidze
also exhibited higher vulnerability outcomes than Massavasse
in terms of the reduction of meals and the number of school
dropouts during the drought. This pattern indicates that
climate shocks and economic liberalisation together may
contribute to increased differentiation, both between and
within villages. Since multiple stressor interaction can lead to
inequality and poverty outcomes, such interaction is integral
to the social sustainability of the savannas.
It is likely that current household responses to economic
change and drought can in turn alter the vulnerability context
by affecting access to land and natural resources, employment
opportunities, social networks, household labour and capital, as
well as local skills and institutions. While a longitudinal study
would be required to see the long-term effects of current
drought coping strategies on such factors, the interview data
indicate that some processes exist that may reduce future
response options and increase vulnerability for some groups. In
addition to the abovementioned increased dependence experi-
enced during drought strategies, which allow for survival but
endanger future livelihoods, social networks of trust and
reciprocity between villagers could be the target of future
research regarding multiple stressors and context vulnerability.
Many of the social relationships with kin and neighbours upon
which the most vulnerable households have traditionally
depended appeared under stress and increasingly ineffective
as the 2002–2003 drought progressed. Borrowing food was
difficult as few households had any food stored and credit
became unavailable as local kiosks shut down and the
remaining formal shops in Massavasse, Mabalane or Chókwè
refused to extend credit. The breakdown of networks of trust
was also apparent in the increase in the number of local thefts of
goats and chickens as well as food crops from the fields or sweet
potato leaves from river bed plots. Thefts affected the
commercial production of maize on the irrigated fields in
Massavasse, some farmers chosing not to farm maize in 2003 for
that reason.
The changes above may have been temporary drought
phenomena; nevertheless, it is likely that the importance of
gaining monetary value from marketed products with
increased trade opportunities as well as increased cash needs
as part of economic liberalisation may undermine non-
monetary sources of coping in the long-term. This was
apparent in the case of indigenous plant-based strategies in
Matidze. Handicraft, for example, yielded very little income in
local markets where they have to compete with imported
goods. Indigenous fruit and other forest products became less
accessible as land was taken over for commercial use and
timber extracted for charcoal production; in addition, upland
plots were expanded as a response to the 2000 floods sweeping
away lowland agricultural plots. Access to reeds was lost as
people used the land near the river for agriculture in Matidze.
The viability of savanna forest resource use is affected by
economic liberalisation related changes such as an increased
focus on commercialised agriculture, growing domestic trade,
and land tenure change, and these are closely linked to the
vulnerability context. It was outside the scope of this study to
investigate whether changing drought coping strategies are
leading to environmental degradation in the savannas. It is
apparent, however, that savanna resources play an important
role in the smallholder’s drought coping strategies, as
exemplified by the gathering of wild fruits and the production
of charcoal in Matidze as well as by the fact that the lack of
access to forest, grazing land and diverse farmland in
Massavasse limited the coping options there as the drought
intensified. These are processes that are critical for both
climate change adaptation policies and efforts to strengthen
the sustainability of savannas. In order to be effective,
vulnerability and sustainability policies need to target both
the multiple stressors and the household response capacity
inherent in vulnerability context. Since vulnerability context
is central to the sustainability of the savannas the two types of
policies need to be closely linked. Not only does this mean, as
suggested by Ziervogel et al. (2006), that they together need to
support the heterogeneous responses that populations have to
the wide range of stressors that they face, but also that they
need to work specifically to improve the conditions for coping
strategies aimed at survival and the way that economic
liberalisation may be changing these. It is not just the
availability of coping strategies, which may improve with
liberalisation, but also the character of those strategies in
terms of their wider effect on response capacity and long-term
livelihood security that is significant.
Reducing vulnerability in a savanna context includes
addressing rights to non-monetary forest resources as well as
to agricultural land in the face of competition from commer-
cial agriculture and timber extraction. Such shifts of policy
attention are important not just for survival secured through
the collection of forest products but for a household’s
capacity to respond more generally since non-monetary or
marginal activities may subsidise a household’s ability to
engage in wage labour and cash cropping (Mortimore and
Adams, 2001; O’Laughlin, 2001). Furthermore, the poor
negotiating position most rural households have when
dealing with employment and trade relations needs to be
addressed, so that their coping strategies can contribute to
long-term livelihood security through enabling the invest-
ment of labour and money into agriculture in addition to
short-term survival. This means that the employment
conditions of casual labourers could be examined and
possibly regulated, for example. In addition, state agricultural
services could be boosted in rain-fed agricultural areas to
provide market information, protection from livestock dis-
ease, and organised (rather than private and itinerant) market
outlets for produce.
Such policies may imply a political shift towards empow-
ering poor rural households rather than focusing attention on
facilitating larger commercial actors. Indeed, Batterbury and
Forsyth (1999) argue that adaptations that involve some
degree of local choice and control with respect to participa-
tion in markets and labour markets are the basis for
sustainable livelihood systems. Of particular relevance to
 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52
the social and environmental sustainability of savannas
would be the improvement of the market position of forest
produce, such as adjusting regulations that manage small-
holder charcoal production through regulations that favour
smallholders rather than large-scale commercial producers.
It is also important to facilitate market infrastructure for
indigenous fruits and handicraft, and to support the on-farm
planting of indigenous trees, especially in irrigated or
intensely farmed areas where there is little forest. Patt and
Schröter (2008) argue that it is vital that people are involved in
the process of designing policies from the very beginning,
breaking a long history of decision-making in Mozambique
that paid little attention to farmer concerns and which left
them powerless participants in government actions. Through
participatory risk appraisal and response, the local set of
risks, climatic and non-climatic, can be addressed in a
manner that reduces vulnerability instead of potentially
introducing negative consequences arising out of adapta-
tions, such as loss of fertile farmland or social institutions.
Flexible institutional responses and design are required
(Eriksen et al., 2008).
A critical lesson is that while people are dependent on
market interaction, particularly during drought, improving
physical access to markets and increasing trade alone does not
necessarily reduce vulnerability in the long-term. This is
because market access is not just a function of geographical
location in relation to regional and national markets or
physical isolation. Equally important are social and economic
factors, such as the lack of capital, market knowledge and
networks that give people a poor bargaining position in market
relations. Unless the negotiating position of smallholders in
market relations is improved at the same time as their access
to required technical expertise, inputs, land and natural
resources for agricultural and off-farm activities is enhanced,
increased market interaction and commercialisation can
actually lock people into unreliable short term survival type
strategies at the expense of long-term livelihood security and
response capacity. Uneven opportunities and differentiation
both socially between households and geographically between
villages drive patterns of vulnerability.
Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank Faculty of Agronomy and Forest
Engineering (FAEF, University of Eduardo Mondlane) staff, in
particular Rui Brito, Inacio Maposse, Roland Brouwer and
Gilead Mlay for facilitating the research and commenting on
the methodology and analysis. The field team consisted of, in
addition to the authors, Pedro Machel, Octavio Matue, Joel
Nhassengo, Milly Devji (all from FAEF), Zacarias Ombe (the
Pedagogical University) and Zacarias Nhiuane (extension
agent, Chókwè District). We are also grateful for inputs from
Karen O’Brien (University of Oslo) and Robin Leichenko
(Rutgers University) in the research process. Valuable com-
ments on earlier drafts of the paper were provided by four
reviewers and Karen O’Brien, Lynn Rosentrater (University of
Oslo), as well as colleagues during presentations at a FAEF
seminar (2002), IHDP Open Meeting (2003) and University of
Oslo seminar (2006). The study was made possible through
49
funding by the World Bank, AFTES, and parts of the research
hosted at the Center for International Climate and Environ-
mental Research, Oslo. We are grateful to David Lister
(Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, UK) for
assisting with extracting climate data. Most of all we would
like to thank the Mabalane and Chókwè District administra-
tions for facilitating the research, and to the leaders and
people of Matidze and Massavasse Villages for welcoming us
and helping in every way possible.
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Siri Eriksen is a post-doctoral researcher in the Department of
Sociology and Human Geography at the University of Oslo. She has
a PhD in Environmental Sciences from University of East Anglia.
For the past 12 years, she has investigated household level vulner-
ability and adaptation to climate variability and change in Africa,
focusing on the role of natural resource use in household drought
responses. Recent projects examine the impact of conflict on
vulnerability to climate change among dryland populations in
Kenya; the effect of market integration on household responses
to droughts and floods in Mozambique; and identifying critical
52 environmental science & policy 12 (2009) 33–52

linkages between adaptation and poverty reduction efforts in
development policy.
Julie Silva is an assistant professor at the University of Florida,
Gainesville, with joint appointment at the Department of Geogra-
phy & Center for African Studies. She has a PhD from the Depart-
ment of Geography at Rutgers University, New Jersey. Her research
interests include economic globalization, uneven development
and global justice, human dimensions of global change, and
spatial econometrics.