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Exam 7 November 2016, questions

Transportation and Spatial Modelling (Technische Universiteit Delft)

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Course: CIE4801 Date: 7 November 2016

Name: Transportation & Spatial Modelling Time: 13h30 – 16h30

For this exam you are allowed to use a pen, paper, a calculator (regular or graphics), an
English-English dictionary, and a formula sheet (A4, double sided, no text except
keywords). Books and lecture notes are not allowed during the exam.

The exam consists of 7 questions on 8 pages for which in total 100 points can be gained.
Please answer the questions in English.

Question 1: A consultant wants to build a model for analysing bicycle traffic flows. In a
[12 points] technical report of another consultant he finds the following cross-
classification table for determining the outbound trips per bike.

No car 1 car 2 or more cars

1 person 1.80 0.60 0.20
2 persons 3.20 1.00 0.50
3 or more persons 4.80 2.60 0.80

Assume a zone of the transport model for which the following numbers of
household types have been determined.

No car 1 car 2 or more cars

1 person 20 40 5
2 persons 25 130 30
3 or more persons 60 205 85

a) Determine the total number of trips for this zone. [3]

A colleague wonders whether these trip rates are reliable. After studying
some older reports he finds the data used to determine the cross-
classification table.

Observations No car 1 car 2 or more Total

(Households) cars
1 person 5 14 1 20
2 persons 10 50 15 75
3 or more persons 25 75 30 130
Total 40 139 46 225

Reported bicycle No car 1 car 2 or more Total

trips cars
1 person 9.0 8.4 0.2 17.6
2 persons 32.0 50.0 7.5 89.5
3 or more persons 120.0 195.0 24.0 339.0
Total 161.0 253.4 31.7 446.1

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It is clear that for many cells in the cross-classification table the number of
observations is too low to be reliable.

b) Use multiple class analysis (MCA) to determine more reliable trip rates
(2 decimal accuracy). [6]

In literature cross-classification is only based on household data.

c) Specify what this observation implies for other modelling stages in the
four-stage model. Briefly explain your line of reasoning. [3]

Question 2: Given are the following networks for car and public transport (PT):
[15 points]

The numbers are the associated travel times. Internal travel times can be set
to infinity. For this network a simultaneous distribution modal split model
has to be applied.

a) Determine the skim matrices for these networks. [4]

The trip generation model produced the following production and attraction
for a 24-hour period.

Production Attraction
A 150 150
D 175 175
R 150 150
U 100 100

The deterrence functions for car and PT are given by:

( ) 10000
f car cij ,car = 2
cij ,car
(
and f pt cij , pt =
100
cij , pt
)

b) Determine the values for Qi and Xj for the first iteration of the doubly
constrained simultaneous distribution modal split model. (2 decimal
accuracy) [7]

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Although the model is called the simultaneous distribution modal split

model, the same result can be obtained by a sequential application of a trip
distribution model and a modal split model.

c) Describe why a sequential application of a trip distribution model and a

modal split model will lead to a similar result as the simultaneous
distribution modal split model used for answering sub-question b. Use
formulas or a numerical example (not a full calculation!) based on sub-
question b to illustrate your line of reasoning. [4]

Question 3: The only public transport service in the eastern part of Zoetermeer is a light
[13 points] rail service (solid dashed line) that offers a direct connection to the city
centre as well as the centre of The Hague. The map below shows the location
of that area as well as the location of a new railway station that will be
opened in 2018 (railway: dashed line, new station: star). The city centres are
indicated with a circle.

Question is how this new train connection will affect car usage as well as the
use of the light rail service.

For this purpose a mode choice model has been estimated for the current
situation.

The utility function is defined by:

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Vcar = − ( tcar ⋅ VoT + cd ⋅ d car + c park )

Vpt = − ( ( tiv + caccess ⋅ taccess + cwait ⋅ twait ) ⋅ VoT + Fare ) + pref pt
tcar = in-vehicle time car
VoT = value of time
d car = distance
cd = car costs per km
c park = parking costs
tiv = in-vehicle time PT
taccess = access time PT
twait = waiting time PT
cx = weight for time element x, e.g. access time or waiting time
Fare = fare PT
pref pt = preference for PT

The attributes for the current and the future situation can be found in the
table below.

In-vehicle Distance Parking Access Waiting Fare

time [km] [euro] [min] [min] [euro]
[min]
Car 25 15 4
Light rail 29 5 2.5 3.8
Train 18 10 5 3.2

Furthermore is given:
• Car costs per kilometre: 0.2 euro per km
• Value of time: 12 euro per hour
• Weight for access or waiting: 2
• Preference for PT: -2

a) Determine for the current situation (i.e. car and light rail only) the
proportions of trips made by car and by the light rail service using a logit-
model having a scale parameter of 0.1. [4]

For the future situation there are three possible scenarios. First, the new train
service doesn’t have any added value, in which case nothing changes.
Second, the train service is considered to be a new and independent
alternative. And third, since both the light rail service and the train service
are public transport services there will be correlations between these two
alternatives.

b) Calculate the proportions of trips made by car and made by light rail
under the assumption of independent alternatives. [3]

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For the third option a nested logit-model should be used. Analysis of route
choices yielded a logit-model for public transport route choice having the
same utility specification (excluding the modal preference of course) and a
scale parameter of 0.2.

c) Determine the value of the logsum of the lower nest. [3]

d) Calculate the proportions of trips using car and using light rail according
to the nested logit model. [3]

Question 4: With the construction of the A4 between Delft and Rotterdam, route planners
[20 points] suggest that travellers coming from north of The Hague and going to
Antwerp, should use the A4 instead of the A13 and A16. However, south of
Rotterdam one part of the A4 is still missing, which allows travellers to opt
for two routes to reach the southern part of the A4, as can be seen in the
network below. Both routes have a major river crossing that is also used by
other traffic (so-called preloads), and which are the main bottlenecks in the
routes.

The attributes of the links are:

Link Free flow travel time Capacity Preload α β

1 10
2 6 80 75 0.5 2
3 4
4 12
5 6 60 40 0.5 2
6 4

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For links 2 and 5 the BPR function is applicable (for the other links a
constant travel time can be assumed):
β
 q 
t (q ) = t ff ⋅ 1 + α ⋅   
  c  

Where tff is the free flow travel time, q is the flow and c the capacity.

The flow from north to south is estimated to be 30.

a) Specify the equilibrium conditions for the two routes from north to south.
[3]

b) Determine analytically the flow on each route in a deterministic user

equilibrium. (Note that you’re allowed to use your calculator, yet the
derivation of the right equations should be part of your answer.) [6]

Authorities wonder whether this assignment is optimal, so they perform a

system optimal assignment.

c) Specify the system optimal conditions for the two routes from north to
south. Briefly describe what you’ve done. [4]

d) Calculate the flows on each route in a system optimum. (Note that the
derivation of the right equations is not asked for, so you can use your
calculator, or use intermediate results of the derivation in sub-question b) [4]

e) Calculate the difference in minutes in travel time spent on the links 2 and
5 between a deterministic equilibrium and a system optimal assignment. [3]

Question 5: One of the methods for OD-estimation is based on mathematical

[12 points] optimisation techniques. A possible objective is:

( )
2
min : ∑ Tˆij − Tijap
ij

a) Explain in words what this objective aims for. [3]

Of course, a proper formulated optimisation model should have related

constraints as well.

b) Specify two typical constraints for the OD-estimation problem,

preferably using an illustration in (simple) formulas, given the proposed
optimisation objective. [3]

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Mathematical optimisation models can be quite powerful.

c) Describe two strategies that are used in the estimation process of OD-
matrices of the Dutch National Modelling system to assure the quality of the
estimated OD-matrices. [3]

Once OD-matrices are estimated, there are two ways to use these OD-
matrices when making a forecast.

d) Briefly describe two methods for making a forecast when using calibrated
OD-matrices. [3]

Question 6: The assignment programme Qblok plays a major role in the Dutch National
[14 points] Modelling System (NMS) and The Netherlands Regional Models (NRM).

a) Describe two clear differences between Qblok and the standard DUE
using e.g. a BPR-function. [3]

The importance of Qblok can be illustrated by identifying which model

components of the NMS are affected by Qblok.

b) Identify the main modelling components in the NMS that have a

relationship with Qblok. Briefly explain why the role of Qblok is indeed
crucial. [4]

Rijkswaterstaat prescribes that for all applications of the Netherlands

Regional Model (NRM) Qblok should be used.

c) Explain what the impact would be, if instead of Qblok an alternative

assignment model would be used for assigning an OD-matrix of an NRM,
for instance a DUE as you used in the Omnitrans exercise. [3]

Apart from NMS and NRM’s, there are also urban and regional models,
which are the responsibility of municipalities and provinces. Obviously there
is an overlap in the networks that are described with these models: urban
models cannot ignore the freeways networks, while an NRM requires a
description of the main urban roads as well. And of course, different models
will yield different results. Both model builders, usually consultants, and
Rijkswaterstaat have developed strategies to assure that such differences do
not lead to complications in infrastructure project studies.

d) Describe the way consultants deal with this issue when building a model,
and describe the way Rijkswaterstaat deals with this issue in infrastructure
project studies. [4]

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Question 7: The first spatial models like the Hansen-model and the Lowry-model aim to
[14 points] answer a similar question, or put otherwise, aim to solve a similar problem.

a) Describe the common problem addressed by these first spatial models.

Feel free to use a simple example to illustrate your description. [3]

The Lowry-model uses more detailed allocation models than the Hansen-
model, i.e. an allocation at cell- or OD-level. As a result the first allocation
model of the Lowry-model yields an OD-matrix for commuting. It could
even be said that the second allocation model yields an OD-matrix too.

b) Define the type of trips that are represented in the OD-matrix produced
by the second allocation model of the Lowry-model. [2]

The OD-matrix for commuting that results from the Lowry-model can be
compared with OD-matrices that result from trip distribution models based
on the gravity model, certainly from a methodological perspective.

c) Describe the main difference from a methodological perspective between

an OD-matrix following from the Lowry-model and one following from a
regular gravity model. Or, alternatively if you want, under which conditions
are these matrices comparable, again from a methodological perspective. [3]

TIGRIS XL is a modern LUTI-model. Such a model has a different approach

with respect to making a forecast than most transport models.

d) Describe the way a forecast is made by TIGRIS XL and identify the

differences with the forecast method of a transport model. [3]

The housing market model in TIGRIS XL is based on zone data.

Accessibility of the zone in its classic interpretation, i.e. similar to potential
value (albeit using logsums), was found to be an important attribute.
Disaggregate models based on household data, however, show that at most
the distance to work (by car) is a relevant attribute.

e) State whether these two findings are consistent or not. Explain your
answer. [3]

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