Lab 3: Atlantic County, NJ Sea-Level Impacts on Barren Land Use

For 1986 & 2012

Utah Adams, Angelica Anglero

Stockton University, ENVL 4300

Dr. Tait Chirenje

10 February 2018

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 Abstract

Land use categories such as urban land, agriculture, forest, wetlands, barren land, and water were

analyzed for Atlantic County, NJ (for the years of 1986 & 2012) using data collected from

NJDEP and NJGIN. Using ArcGIS computer mapping software, thorough inspection of water

and barren land use types were highlighted for the purposes of determining the relationship

between sea-level rise, and barren land sub-category beaches. The net gain of water from 1986 to

2012 was determined to be 14,148,503,586 sq ft, with a resulting net loss of -94,721,409 for

barren land. The massive influx of water was concluded to be a result of climate change affecting

sea-level, which correlated with some loss of beaches being nearest to the coast. If not addressed,

this could lead to future housing and planning calamities. As with any coastal community

exposed to the ocean, the apparent loss of barren land area in Atlantic City might also be a result

of more severe tropical storm events like Sandy (for 2012). Atlantic City could be experiencing

greater barren land losses due to these factors if not for their ongoing beach nourishment

programs as highlighted by Stockton University’s Coastal Research Center. Digital orthographs

of a neighborhood in Atlantic City proved to be inconclusive in determining any qualitative

urban sprawl trends, and water-barren land relationships. Continued land use monitoring

techniques and anti-erosion practices are quintessential in ensuring coastal communities in

Atlantic County are kept safe.

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 Table of Contents

Abstract………………………………………………………………………………………….. 2

Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………... 2

Objectives………………………………………………………………………………………... 6

Methods………………………………………………………………………………………….. 7

Results…………………………………………………………………………………………… 9

Part I…………………………………………………………………………………….. 9

Part II……………………………………………………………………………………. 9

Part III…………………………………………………………………………………. 10

Discussion……………………………………………………………………………………… 10

Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………... 12

References……………………………………………………………………………………… 14

Appendices……………………………………………………………………………………....15

Lab 3: Atlantic County, NJ Sea Level Impacts on Barren Land Use

For 1986 & 2012

The Earth’s landscape has undergone significant alterations since the technological

advancement that took place during the Neolithic Period in human history. The advent of this

technology allowed humans to begin to deforest areas in preparation for agriculture, villages,

livestock, etc. This was an incredibly rudimentary version of something that we do today in the

U.S., that is, dividing up the land into designated uses/categories. According to the U.S.

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Department of Agriculture, as of 2012, the land area covered by the U.S. is about 2.3 billion

acres, and New Jersey covers approximately 4.5 million acres (“New Jersey”, n.d.). This can

further be divided into the amount of acreage covered by Atlantic County, NJ, (the focus of this

report) which is about 355,200 acres according to the United States Census Bureau (n.d.).

Atlantic County’s land is divided into these broad land use classifications: urban land,

agriculture, forest, water, wetlands, and barren land. In order for urban planners and various

environmental professionals to make informed projections and plans about/for a state, land use

changes need to be tracked over the years. Each category can be further broken down into more

specific classifications.

Urban land is typically divided into subcategories like residential, commercial, and

industrial buildings, for instance. New Jersey constantly grapples with the challenges spurred by

being the most densely populated state, however, Atlantic County comes in fifteenth place

(275,362 people) out of twenty-one for total residents (US-Places, 2012). Atlantic County is not

typically known for its extensive agriculture due to the nature of the sandy & acidic soil.

Notwithstanding these characteristics, Atlantic County mainly has cranberry and blueberry

fields. Forest subcategories may consist of deciduous, coniferous, and brushland species.

Coniferous trees typically encompass Atlantic County thanks to the NJ Pine Barrens. Another

land use classification is wetlands, which is typically divided into coastal and interior (salt &

freshwater) wetlands, which NJ has a combined total of over 900,000 acres of (U.S. Fish &

Wildlife Service, n.d.)! E.g. the Edwin B. Forsythe National Wildlife Refuge on the coast, covers

more than 47,000 acres, a good portion of which is in Atlantic County (U.S. Fish & Wildlife

Service, n.d.).

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 While the aforementioned land uses are essential to track over the years, it is water and

barren land categories that this report highlights for Atlantic County. These categories are

essential indicators for climate change, especially so when one considers that the largest town

(Atlantic City) is located on a barrier island! Water encompasses river channels, lakes, bays etc.,

and naturally, with rising sea levels, the quantity of water due to encroachment should be rising.

As stated by Stockton University’s own Coastal Research Center (2017), out of all NJ’s coastal

counties, Atlantic is the most developed in terms of density. Allowing for coastal communities

like Atlantic City to be more sensitive and vulnerable to climate change consequences, e.g.

displacement induced by rising sea levels and /or increasing severe storm frequency. Rutgers

Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences stated in a report that NJ in the 20th century

experienced faster sea-level rise due to global, regional, and local processes, than any other

century in the last 4,000 years (Miller et al, 2013). They also projected for the NJ shore

(including Atlantic City), a sea-level rise (ft) of 0.8, 1.5, 3.5, for 2030, 2050, 2100, respectively.

Undoubtedly, monitoring of these changes are essential for future coastal planning/development.

Subcategories for barren land include: beaches, altered lands, transitional areas (one land

use cover to another), and most importantly per this report, beaches. Beach erosion occurs when

waves from the ocean sweep away sand particles, decreasing the total beach surface area. It can

be caused by severe storm events and/or sea-level rise. It is hypothesised that an increase in

water in atlantic county, correlates with a decrease in barren land (beaches), because of this

mechanism. While some beaches in Atlantic County naturally gain sand through deposition,

many other beaches lose width and dune height without human intervention (Farrell et al., 2017).

Hence, “beach nourishment programs” have been an ongoing activity in Atlantic City since the

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late 1930’s (Farrell et al., 2017). Beach monitoring has revealed per Stockton University Coastal

Research Center’s report, that certain beaches in Atlantic City have net gained upwards of

209.62 yds3/ft of sand (Raleigh Ave, AC) over a thirty year period of 1986-2016 (2017, July

31).This can be attributed to beach nourishment programs that have contributed to this overall

increase in sand quantity. If it were not for land use monitoring of this, the protection that the

beaches provide for Atlantic City would not be present.

As stated above, the largest town in NJ is Atlantic City, and according to the U.S. Census

Bureau (n.d.), it has a population of 39,558 residents as of 2010, and in 1990 the population was

37,957. It is not a city that has experienced rapid growth, but nevertheless it is important to track

urban development and sprawl. Orthoquads are a system of labeled aerial photographs that are

employed to conveniently track these factors in Atlantic City. They are downloaded from New

Jersey Geographic Information Network’s online database. For this report, the years of 1995,

2002, 2007, 2012, & 2015 were analyzed in order to determine urban growth. The orthoquads

may also help indicate any changes in sea-level, or beaches (the other focus in this report)

through visual analysis.

Objectives

To determine land use change in Atlantic County, NJ for the years of 1986 & 2012,

specifically looking into the relationship between sea level rise and barren land (beaches) in

Atlantic City with the aid of ArcGIS computer software. This analysis required downloading

Watershed Management Areas (WMA) and land use for Atlantic County via NJDEP’s online

database and importing them into ArcGIS. In order to attain a quantitative and qualitative value

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for these changes, the comprehensive maps delineated land use categories and provided a tabular

form to aid in this report’s conclusions on sea-level impacts in Atlantic county/city and land use

change. The time bracket studied covers twenty-six years, allowing for a more noticeable, drastic

difference/analysis for this reports purposes The second component involved retrieving Atlantic

City neighborhood digital orthoquads (for the years of: 1995, 2002, 2007, 2012, 2015) to

determine land use changes; the orthoquads were retrieved from New Jersey Geographic

Information Network. Finally, conclusions about Atlantic County’s current and future planning

affected by climate change were drawn based on generated and retrieved data.

Methods

The first segment of this research involves creating maps of land use categories across

several years to analyze changes over time. Since the land use data is separated by water

management area (WMA), one first needs to look at the map located at

http://www.state.nj.us/dep​ to discern that Atlantic County is in WMAs 14, 15, and 17. The land

use/cover data for these 3 watersheds was downloaded from ​http://www.nj.gov/dep/gis/

listall.html​ for the years 1986, 1995/97, 2002, 2007, and 2012. Create a blank Arcmap file, then

load the county boundaries shapefile and create a clip of Atlantic County. A shapefile of the New

Jersey county boundaries can be downloaded from ​http://www.nj.gov/dep/gis/listall.html​. Using

the merge function, the data from the 3 WMA’s will be transformed into one shapefile. Then

using the county boundary prepared previously, clip the merged WMAs to the boundary of

Atlantic County. This process is repeated for each year, with the exception of the 1986 data as

that is already lined up with county boundaries.

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 To see the land use areas, the symbology must be changed for every map and the colors

must be consistent across each one. The land use areas are color coded pink for urban, brown for

barren land, dark green for forests, light green for agriculture, yellow for wetlands, and blue for

water. When creating maps to show barren land specifically, changing agriculture, forests, and

wetlands to the same color (yellow) is ideal to make the projection clearer. Note: for the maps to

display properly, the outline of every symbol color needs to be removed. Lastly, add a legend for

color designation.

In order to analyze the changes in land use in depth, the data needs to be exported and

transformed into a table. Using the conversion tool, convert the data table for each year into an

Excel file. Then by using the pivot table function in Excel, create a new sheet showing the sum

of each land use area (in square feet). This process is repeated for every map, then the resulting

pivot tables are all pasted into a new table showing the change in each land use category over

each year bracket. The net change is calculated for each land use category by subtracting the

2012 area from the 1986 area.

For the second segment of this research, orthoquad images of Atlantic City from the

years 1995, 2002, 2007, 2012, and 2015 needed to be analyzed. First, the 4 orthoquads (H19B10,

H19B11, H19B14, and H19B15) are downloaded from

https://njgin.state.nj.us/NJ_NJGINExplorer/IW.jsp​ for each of the aforementioned years. Then

open a blank file in Arcmap, and add the 4 orthoquad files so they display an aerial map of

Atlantic City. After your map is complete, use the snipping tool and save the map as an image

file. Repeat this process for every year except 1995, which is already formatted into an image file

that encompases the 4 orthoquads.

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 Results

Part I:

Table 1: Atlantic County Change in Land Use Area (sq ft) and Net Change for 1986 & 2012.
Land Use Type: 1986 2012 Net Change:

Water 1,547,665,730 15,696,169,316 14,148,503,586

Barren Land 209,967,406 115,245,997 -94,721,409

Data retrieved from New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection’s website.

Part II:

Figure 1: Atlantic County and Atlantic/Brigantine City Changes in Water and Barren Land Coverage for 1986 &
2012. Northern beaches appear to have declined the most in area. Data retrieved from New Jersey Department of
Environmental Protection’s website.

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Part III:

Figure 2: Orthoquad Aerial View of Atlantic City Throughout the Years of: 1995, 2002, 2007, 2012, & 2015.
Data retrieved from the New Jersey Geographic Information Network’s website.

Discussion

Overall, Atlantic County has seen many changes within the last three decades. Urban

areas, water bodies, and wetlands expanded while forests and barren lands decreased in area (see

appendix A). However, this study aims to focus on the increase in water area and the decrease in

barren areas, namely, beaches. Atlantic County is a very low lying area and it is located

alongside the Atlantic Ocean. Understanding the changes in beach and water area are integral to

understanding the environmental risks this county faces.

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 As seen in figure 1, there is a decline in barren land along the shore which is primarily

comprised of beaches. Upon examination, it appears that the northeast tip of barren land has

disappeared, and that the breadth and length of barren land on Atlantic City has shrunk over the

years. This apparent shrinking from 1986 to 2012, corresponds with a net decrease of

-94,721,409 (Table 1). The changing of shorelines is a perfectly normal part of nature, but due

to human development of coastal areas, beaches and wetlands cannot migrate (Williams, 2001).

Beaches begin to grow thinner as the sand is dragged southward, making more of the county

vulnerable to storm damages (Williams, 2001). This is consistent with the work done by the

Stockton University Coastal Research Center which found northern beaches in Atlantic county

lost sand, and southern areas that didn’t participate in beach nourishment projects became

narrower (Farrell et al., 2017).

An additional factor that has been linked to climate change is an increase in severe storm

frequency. Atlantic county/city has been a victim of several severe tropical storms and hurricanes

over the time bracket studied, due to its proximity to the ocean. Most notably, tropical storm

Sandy occured in 2012, causing significant beach erosion due to high wave and surge elevations

(Barone et al., 2014). Wave run-ups in Atlantic City reached upwards of 14.5 ft and have been

associated with a -25.13 yds3/ft reduction in sand volume (Barone et al., 2014). For 2012, the

losses in barren land to water may be attributed to this storm. This relationship may also be

applied to years previous to 2012.

Table 1 depicts the net change in water area for all of Atlantic County, showing that in

the last 26 years, 14,148,503,586 square feet of land has been converted into water. In

comparison to New Jersey as a whole, this is a relatively small amount of land. However, as seen

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in Figure 1, most of the urban areas of Atlantic County are clustered near coasts and barrier

islands. It is also worth noting that there appears to be an expansion of the inlet separating

Atlantic city and Brigantine, as well as an increase in width of the channel/canal running through

Atlantic City. In New Jersey, sea level is rising faster than the national average as there is land

subsidence in addition to global warming, and due to this, sea level is estimated to rise 1.3 feet

by 2030 (Miller et al., 2013). Considering the topography and population dispersion of this area,

even minor rises in sea level could displace many New Jersey natives and cause more frequent

storm surges.

Atlantic City is particularly important to Atlantic County as it is the most populous town

and it brings in significant amounts of tourism for the area. The second half of this report is

intended to look in-depth at the changes in an Atlantic City neighborhood by observing

orthoquad satellite data. The orthoquad data (Fig. 2) seems to show little-to-no sprawl within the

last two decades. This is likely due to the surrounding areas being comprised primarily of

wetlands; which tend to make for poor places to build, in addition to being heavily protected,

preventing development. Considering the density of this neighborhood in Atlantic city and the

history of its growth, it is unlikely that this section of town will expand further outwards.

Additionally, the wetlands and shorelines seem to vary between each photograph, but this may

be attributed to seasonal changes and tides. Thus, no definitive data on wetland expansion or

beach erosion can be derived from the photographs.

Conclusions

Within the last three decades, Atlantic County has been seeing a steady increase in sea

level alongside with a decrease in beach area. Large tropical storms like Sandy had an 8.9 ft

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storm tide in Atlantic City, and future storms could be more damaging to coastal communities

(Miller et al., 2013). If climate and sea level continue to change at this current rate, Atlantic City

in particular will become more vulnerable to storms, erosion, and saltwater intrusion (Miller et

al,, 2013). Atlantic County as a whole could face serious economic and environmental damage if

preventative measures aren’t implemented. Future research should continue to catalog the

changes in sea level via land use monitoring, while also looking at the effectiveness of shoreline

restoration programs. While changes in sea level are a more global environmental issue,

protecting existing beaches can help prevent future damage from flooding and storms. Effective

monitoring, strong urban planning, and beach restoration projects have the potential to help save

the county from paying the costs associated with changing climate.

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 References

About the Refuge - Edwin B. Forsythe - U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. (n.d.). Retrieved

February 13, 2018, from ​https://www.fws.gov/refuge/Edwin_B_Forsythe/about.html

Barone, D., McKenna, K., Farrell, S. (2014). Hurricane Sandy: Beach-dune Performance at New

Jersey Beach Profile Network Sites. ​Shore & Beach, 82 (4).​ Retrieved from

http://intraweb.stockton.edu/eyos/extaffairs/content/docs/CoastalResearchCenterArticle.p

df

Farrell, S., Mckenna, K., Hafner, S., Smith, B., Robine C., Pimpinelli H., DiCosmo N… Suran

M. (2017, July 31). An Analysis of Thirty Years' Study of Sand Redistribution and

Shoreline Changes in New Jersey's Four Coastal Counties Raritan Bay, the Atlantic

Ocean Coast, and Delaware Bay Through Fall 1986 Through Fall 2016. Retrieved

February 13, 2018, from ​https://stockton.edu/coastal-research-center/njbpn

/documents/reports/Atlantic2016.pdf

Information Warehouse. (n.d.). Retrieved February 11, 2018, from

https://njgin.state.nj.us/NJ_NJGINExplorer/IW.jsp

Miller, K., Kopp, R., Browning, J., Horton, B. (2013). Sea-Level Rise in New Jersey Fact Sheet.

Retrieved February 12, 2018, from

http://www.margate-nj.com/sites/margatenj/files/file/file/kenmillersealevelfactsheet.pdf

New Jersey. (n.d.). Retrieved February 13, 2018, from ​http://www.stateforesters.org/state/

new-jersey

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 NJDEP Digital Data Downloads in ArcGIS Shape file format. (2018, January 16). Retrieved

February 11, 2018, from ​http://www.nj.gov/dep/gis/listall.html\

QuickFacts. (n.d.). Retrieved February 13, 2018, from ​https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact

/table/atlanticcountynewjersey/AGE115210

US-Places.com. (n.d.). Retrieved February 13, 2018, from ​http://www.us-places.com/New-

Jersey/population-by-County.htm

Williams, S. J. (2001, August 20). Coastal Erosion and Land Loss Around the United States:

Strategies to Manage and Protect Coastal Resources- Examples from Louisiana.

Retrieved February 12, 2018, from ​https://www.fws.gov/nc-es/ecoconf/williams%

20paper.pdf

Appendices

Appendix A

Land Use Type 1986 1995/97 2002 2007 2012 Net Change
(Shape Area)

AGRICULTURE 1,217,551,630 1,098,338,625 1,140,333,316 1,112,647,076 1,094,936,895 -122,614,735

BARREN LAND 209,967,406 1,72,524,934 186,926,513 131,149,135 115,245,997 -94,721,409

FOREST 6,568,454,586 6,472,130,901 6,298,118,279 6,105,896,416 6,061,651,463 -506,803,123

URBAN 2,224,481,754 2,315,969,133 2,591,068,165 2,873,651,652 2,947,521,461 723,039,707

WATER 1,547,665,730 1,583,671,602 4,121,988,916 4,196,066,860 15,696,169,316 14,148,503,586

WETLANDS 5,269,602,037 5,381,216,117 5,398,376,766 5,341,671,860 5,343,832,056 74,230,019

Table of land use areas (in square feet) sorted by year. Data retrieved from New Jersey Department of
Environmental Protection’s website.

Appendix B

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Map of Atlantic County and its land uses in 1986. Data retrieved from New Jersey Department of Environmental
Protection’s website.

Appendix C

Map of Atlantic County and its land uses in 2012. Data retrieved from New Jersey Department of Environmental

Protection’s website.

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