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Paper *96
March 13, 1967
CHAPTER IV
any particular case, either or both of these may be the sources of problem
difficulty By using our formal models of problem solving we can often
possible proof- which we shall take as the element of the set W (Figure
the outset that we are not concerned with the whole set of possible proofs,
but with some subset comprising, say, the "simpler" elements of that set.
We might restrict W, for example, to lists consisting of not more than
twenty logic expressions, with each expression not more than 23 symbols
in length and involving only the variables p, q, ?, s* and t, and the con-
nective 3 "V" and 'tD". The number of possible proofs meeting these restric°
235 ~-one followed W 235 zeros»
tions is about 10
The task is also not trivial of verifying that a particular ele-
ment of the set tf, ©B we have just defined it, is a proof of a particular
s
testing whether each element selected is actually the desired proof is not
a, feasible method for proving logic theorems for either humans or machines
The set to be searched is to© large and the testing of the elements sel-
ected is too difficult How can we bring thia task down to manageable pre=
ceedingly large but also arbitrary, for it depends entirely on the restrie
tions of simplicity we impose on W, By strengthening these conditions, we
reduce the size of W? by weakening them we increase its size We must look
for & more meaningful way to describe the size of the set Wo It does not
appear that there is any non- trivial measure of W that is entirely indepen-
dent of assumptions about the solution process
CIP #96 ~3~
5/
3ions that can be added to the sequences., ~* That is, we generate a
a&ze (see again 9 figure 1} each choice point (a^, b^, b^> etc 4 of which
represents a proof, with the alleys leading from the choice point repre
senting the legitimate ways of deriving new expressions as immediate con
sequences of: the expressions contained in the proof Thus, in the figure,
ments and no complex substitutions (eeg, s "q v r" for "p") are included<>
No specializations have been made Ce 0 g 09 substitution of p for q in "p v q 11}
If we include the specializations, which take three more steps, the algo-
rithm will generate an (estimated) additional 600 theorems, thus providing
a set of proofs, all of 11 steps or less, containing almost 1,000 theorems 9
none of them duplicates»
What does the algorithm do with the sixty-odd theorems of Chap
ter 2 of Principia? One theorem (2,01) i$ obtained in step (4) of the
2o03, and 2.04) are obtained in step (6), hence among the first 115 o One
more (2.05) is obtained in step (8), hence in the first 246, Only one more
is included in the first 1,000, theorem (2.07).The proofs of all the re-
mainder require either complex substitutions or detachment.
We have no way at present to estimate how many proofs must be
generated to include proofs of all theorems of Chapter 2 of Principle 0
We will show later that it is almost certainly more than 10 0 More-
over, apart from the six theorems listed,, there is no reason to suppose
that the proofs of the Prineipia theorems would occur early in the list
Our information is too poor to estimate more than very roughly
the times required to produce such proofs by the algorithm using a computer
like JOHNNXAC; but we can estimate times of about 16 minutes (40 7090 see-
oads) to do the first 250 theorems of Figure 4 (i 0 e., through step (8}>
assuming processing times comparable with those in LTc The first part of
the algorithm has an additional special property, which holds only to the
point where detachment is first useds that no check for duplication is
necessary. Thus the time of computing the first few thousand proofs only
increases linearly with the number of theorems generated. For the theorems
requiring detachments 9 duplication checks must be made, and the total ccm
puting time increases as the square of the number of expressions generated
At this rate it would take eons of eons of computation for the British
Museum Algorithm to generate proofs for the theorems in Chapter 2 of Prin
cipia. By this measure, the set W is very largt, indeed, and something
more effective is needed than the British Museum Algorithm in order for a
man or machine to solve problems in symbolic logic in a reasonable time.
It is worth observing that, in spite of its spectacular inef-
ficiency, the generating process of the British Museum Algorithm is far
from random. In adding to subsequences of expressions, it applies only
#96
the discussion in the next section and Chapter 4o) If we again suppose
derivations to be generated by working forward from the premises, we can,
in the case where there is a single premise, make simple estimates of the
number of possible derivations of given length--and hence characterize
this particular problem maze.
Assuming (which are oversimplifications) that each rule of
transformation operates on one premise, and that each such rule is applic-
able to any premise, this particular maze branches in twelve directions (one
for each rule of transformation) at each choice point e That is, we start
out with a single premise; depending on which rule of transformation ve
apply* we obtain one of twelve possible new expressions from each of these»
CIP #96 °8~
k
and so on Thus, the number of possible sequences of length k is 12 0
If a problem expression can be derived from the premises in a minimum of
seven steps, then a trial-and^error search for the derivation would re
quire, on the average, the construction of 1/2x12 "18,000,000 sequences
If only four rules of transformation were actually applicable,
on the average^, at each stage a more realistic assumption, since expres-
sions must be of particular forms for particular rules to be applicable
t® them), the number of sequences of length 7 would still be 4 «16 9 384
Chess Playing
Opening a Safe
We can make similar estimates of the sizes of the set W for the
other examples of problem-solving tasks we have listecU In all cases the
set is so large as to foreclose (at least with human processing speeds) a
solution-generating process that makes essentially random search through
the set for possible solutions It will be useful to consider one addi-
tional "synthetic" example that has a simpler structure than any we have
i
discussed so far, and that will be helpful later in understanding how
various heuristic devices cut down the amount of search required to find
problem solutions° Consider a safe whose lock has ten independent dials,
each with numbers running from 00 to 99 on its face» The safe will have
100 -10 , or one hundred billion billion possible settings, only one of
which will unlock ito A would-be safe cracker, trying the combinations
systematically, could expect to take on the average 50 billion billion
trials to open ito
Puzzles
three cannibals are on one bank of a river, waiting to cross« They have
a boat that will hold only two men at u time, and all members of the party
know how to paddle it, At no Cime may a missionary or set of missionaries
be left on either bank with a larger number of cannibals. What sequence
of boat loads will get the party acrcts the river safely? Let us generate
all the possible solution paths that eatiufy the conditions of the problem
(no more than two in the boat, missionaries ne er to be outnumbered on
either bank), terminating any path If it loops -returns to a situation pre-
viously achieved. We find that theve are tnly four paths, and each of
these leads to a solution of the problem! (The reader can easily construct
carried in the boat; in all the trips back, except the third., one man
crosses alone. But two men have to be carried on the third return trip.
This step appears implausible to most people because it leads away from the
final goal, which is to get the members of the party across the river.
Hence this alternative is generally avoided for a long time. The small
total number of alternative paths does not facilitate solving the problem
because the correct paths are not traversed at all.
Other well-known puzzles can be shown to have the same property
Thus, their puzzle-like character is not simply a function of the size of
CiP #96 -li-
the problem space, but has to do also with the characteristics of the
generators that people commonly bring to the problem. Such puzzles
causs they do so, they both have available a powerful matching heuristic
for determining which substitutions to make for the variables in the axioms
Both programs generate subproblems that are placed on a list where they
can be examined to determine which subproblem should be attempted next.
In both programs, the subproblems generated provide guarantees that a path
Cor, in some cases, a conjunction of paths) from the axioms to the final
goal will be a valid proof. These heuristics are not only common to these
two programs, tout they are applicable to any realm of mathematics where
proofs involve some kind of substitution of appropriate constants for vari-
ables. We will encounter these same heuristics again in other contexts.