Wildfires Across The Western United States

Wildfires have occurred for as far back as the appearance of terrestrial plants before humans caused
fires, lightning and volcanoes were the igniters. During the time period prior to domestic fire use back
to millions of years in the past, natural wildfires the increased and decreased with the ebb and flow of
the levels atmospheric oxygen. (Bowman, 2009) Focusing in on the time period of wildfires caused by
both nature and man, we starting seeing an increase in fires even though the O2 levels have remain
stable. The most dramatic increase in wildfires occurs with the onset of the Industrial Revolution
leading up to the 1900’s, it is at this point where trends have changed and the data starts becoming
more accurate as we approach the present day. The questions I attempt to answer are; what are these
trends and what has caused them, will they continue in the future and what impact does Global
Warming have on wildfires, what impact does wildfires have on air quality.

What have past fire tends looked like (from the 1920s-1970s)?

Looking at the charts below we can see the influence of the 1900s to present (about the 100ya marker
on Bowman). What is interesting is the decrease of fires shown on both graphs. This decrease can be
account for with fire suppression efforts. However, the overall warming that has been occurring over
the last century might be posed to offset this.

(Bowman, 2009)
(Voliand, 2010)

Why did we see this particular trend?

The active use of fire suppression has come as result of increased population growth in areas of
naturally occurring wildfires in efforts to prevent property damage to homes and business. In part this
fire suppression wasn’t available until recently as “planes and flame retardants -- have become
available” (Voliand, 2010) The change of natural landscapes and ecosystems that have historically been
rich fuel sources for fires, like the Western United States, but became low of fuel sources due to
preventative measures of suppressing and occasionally removing this fuel (vegetation) with new
construction, all causing a decrease in the occurrence of wildfires. On the opposite end areas with a
historic degree of low or no fires, have seen fires used to clear the natural fire-resistant vegetation
making way for agriculture in areas like the rainforest. In the West with actively trying to prevent
wildfires we have been left with what some call a fire deficit (Marlon, et al., 2012). Additionally we can
see this deficit by comparing data that shows prior to the settlement in the West it is estimated that 20
or 30 million acres burned in a typical year unlike the 4-5 million that is allowed to burn every year now.
(Gillis, 2017)

How are these trends expected to change in the future?

Since 1984 to present we can see wildfire in the West on the rise and given the biomass available has
increased over time to the point in mid-1980’s where fires that do catch have resulted more intensity.
The amount of fires is also on the rise as we can see from Dennison’s chart showing an increase that has
been trending over all for the West. Supporting this Westerling’s study found that the frequency of
wildfires rose as did the acreage they consumed. (Westerling, 2006) Both have a correlation to
increases in regional spring and summer temperature that has resulted in dry conditions and a
lengthened wildfire season.

(Dennison, 2014)

What might be some of the reasons behind these changing trends?

Within the West these trends look to be on the rise for the next 20-30 years if not longer. Ficklin’s study
has shown the majority for the Western United States to have an increase drought trend. (Ficklin, 2015)
NASA’s researchers Olga Pechony and Drew Shindell have produced a model that predicts these
conditions even farther into the future. “Likewise, by 2100 it predicts more burning in a drier western
United States... Fire frequency has already increased in the western United States during the late 20th
century, and the future projections show further increases of about 30 to 60 percent in that region.”
(Voliand, 2010) With these increases of drought and lengthening wildfire season the possible biomass
that could burn in the West will have a significant impact on the air quality due to the small particulates
that would result from the fires. (Mallia, 2016)

What might be some of the impacts on these changes on air quality?

With a recent history of fire suppression leading to increased biomass the droughts brought on by
climate change negatively affecting the precipitation in the West we can expect ongoing years of intense
and frequent wildfires that will further drive the cycle of climate changes toward global warming.
With wildfires releasing particulates into the atmosphere that can spread for miles an increase in
healthcare costs can be expected to rise as well. Bowman notes that at least 1 billion dollars in health
care costs could be contributed to the smoke haze from 1997-1998 in Latin American. (Bowman, 2009)
Bowman further goes on to state that all current sources of fire account for 50% of CO2 emissions, the
other half coming from fossil fuels. While at the surface it appears that wildfires would be just as bad
for the pollution and global warming as fossil fuels, there is another role it plays which is acting as a sink
of the atmospheric CO2. However there is some evidence that suggest the longer growing season can
counteract this effect. (Westerling, 2006) Going back to Bowman’s graph one has to wonder if the
trending line for Industrial Combustion, when added to the line for vegetation burning closely resembles
the Global Warming we see today. If this is indeed the case we will need to pay closer attention to
which fires we let burn as the overall impact on ozone and particulates is balanced with our
consumption of fossil fuels, and the more we can swing that equation in favor of natural wildfire
perhaps the better chance we have of returning our atmospheric sink to a better balance.

References
Bowman, D. M. (2009). Fire in the Earth System. Science, 481-484.

Dennison, P. E. (2014). Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984-2011. American
Geophysical Union, 2928-2933.

Ficklin, D. L. (2015, 4 14). A climatic deconstruction of recent drought trends in the United States.
Retrieved from IOPScience: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/4/044009

Gillis, J. (2017, 8 6). Let Forest Fires Burn? What the Black-Backed Woodpecker Knows. Retrieved from
New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/06/science/let-forest-fires-burn-what-the-
black-backed-woodpecker-knows.html

Mallia, D. (2016, 5 25). Western US wildfires in an increasly warming climate. Retrieved from Physics
Today: https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/PT.5.4021/full/

Marlon, J. R., Bartlein, P. J., Gavin, D. G., Long, C. J., Anderson, R. S., Briles, C. E., . . . Walsh, M. K. (2012).
Long-term prespective on wildfires in the western USA. PNAS, E535-E543.

Voliand, A. (2010, 10 27). NASA Models Earth's Fiery Past and Future. Retrieved from nasa.gov:
https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/fiery-past.html

Westerling, A. L. (2006). Warming and Earlier Spring Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity.
Science, 940-943.