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May 1, 2018
These survey results represent the opinions of 37 of the nation’s top money managers,
investment strategists, and professional economists.
They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their responses were
collected on April 26-28, 2018. Participants were not required to answer every question.
This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be extrapolated beyond those
who did accept our invitation.
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Raise interest
rates 11%
Lower interest
rates 0%
Keep rates
unchanged 89%
Don't know/
unsure 0%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
10% 10%
Launch new quantitative easing: 0%
10%
5% 5%
4%
3% 2% 2% 2% 2%
0% 0%
0%
Jan Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May 1
27 '16 15 26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 '17 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 '18 20
(For the 100% answering the next move will be to raise rates)
Jun 86%
Jul 5%
Aug 3%
Sep 5%
Average:
Oct 0%
June
2019
Nov 0%
Dec 0%
Jan '19 0%
Feb 0%
Mar 0%
After
Mar '19 0%
4.00
3.50
3.45 3.46
3.21
3.00
2.86 2.84
Average
2.50 2.63
2.48 2.49
2.39
2.26
2.00
1.50
1.00
Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12 Jan 30 Mar 20 May 1
Survey Dates
Note: Three percent of respondents said the Fed will cut rates in 2019.
Mar 20 May 1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
A healthy
part of the 60%
market cycle;
we're past
the worst 65%
of it
A red
flag for 30%
the markets;
expect more
sell offs
27%
10%
Don't know/
unsure
8%
Mar 20 May 1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
8%
More
bullish
11%
73%
Unchanged
73%
20%
More
bearish
16%
Don't 0%
know/
unsure 0%
Mar 20 May 1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Strongly 13%
approve
8%
45%
Approve
49%
20%
Neutral
19%
18%
Disapprove
16%
Strongly 5%
disapprove
8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Yes 81%
No 11%
Don't
know/ 7%
unsure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
More
dovish 3%
Neutral 65%
More
hawkish 16%
Don't
know/ 16%
unsure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
More
dovish 5%
Neutral 51%
More
hawkish 0%
Don't
know/ 43%
unsure
10. Please rate the following on how big a role each has
played in the recent rise in interest rates?
1=Very small impact, 2=Small impact, 3=Moderate impact,
4=Large impact, 5=Very large impact
Higher
inflation 3.27
concerns
Faster
growth 3.19
outlook
Fed rate
hikes and
balance 2.78
sheet
reduction
More
Treasury
supply/ 2.76
bigger
deficits
11. How will the recent rise in interest rates affect U.S.
economic growth relative to the effect of the tax cuts
enacted by Congress late last year?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Offsetting
(Negative effect of
interest rates will be
the same as 22%
positive effect
of tax cuts)
Don't know/
unsure 3%
12. How would you view a U.S. exit from the North
American Free Trade Agreement?
Mar 20 May 1
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Very 48%
negative 49%
33%
Negative
41%
15%
Neutral
5%
3%
Positive
0%
Very 0%
positive 0%
Don't 3%
know/
unsure 5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Positive 16%
for U.S.
economic 3%
growth 3%
Neutral 8%
for U.S.
economic 13%
growth 8%
Negative 55%
for U.S.
economic 63%
growth 58%
Too soon
to tell 21%
the impact
on U.S. 23%
economic 31%
growth
14. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on … ?
3,200
3005
3,000
2928
2879
2937
2862
2,800 2839
2775 2787
2708
2,600
2588 2593
2555 2564 2562
2480
2,400 2453
2,200
2,000
1,800
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May
13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20 1
2017 2018
Survey Dates
4.0%
3.54%3.54%
3.5% 3.44%3.43% 3.44%
3.37%
2.84%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May
13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20 1
2017 2018
Survey Dates
Yes 25%
No 67%
Don't
know/ 8%
unsure
• Twos are reacting to the Fed, tens • Foreign capital flows limiting rise in
are moving on global growth - new long rates
supply too focused on short end of • Fed raising rates
curve • The Fed is hiking too much. The 10-
• Poor inflation expectations for long year/3-month curve is what matters.
term It was 400 bps 5 years ago, now 100
• Longer end is sucked downward due bps. That is still steep but heading
to ECB low rate policy lower. Too early to say it is signaling
• Markets are adjusting to reality of a recession but headed in that
inflation returning. Have yet to fully direction.
price in the boost to long-term rates • Low term premium
associated with rising deficits and • It is natural that the yield curve
debt flattens with the tightening cycle. The
• A combination of the Fed raising "recession" signal only comes with
short-term rates and a slower than inversion, and we are far from there.
expected growth of inflation.
18. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on … ?
Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2020
3.5%
2.86% 2.87%
3.0% 2.90%
1.78%
1.69%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar May
26 14 26 24 20 1 13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30 20 1
2017 2018
19. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
4.0%
3.5%
3.30%
3.24%
3.20% 3.21%
3.17%
3.11% 3.18%
3.06%
3.16%
2.98% 2.95%
3.0% 3.04% 2.94%
2.92%
2.85% 2.94%
2.91%
2.85%2.79% 2.73% 2.80%
2.65%
2.69%
2.65% 2.64% 2.66%
2.58% 2.48%
2.5% 2.56%
2.42% 2.44%
2.29%
2.0%
Sep 16
Oct 28
Sept 16
Oct 27
Sep 20
Jan 26 '16
Sep 19
Jan 27, '15
Mar 17
Jun 16
Mar 15
Jun 14
Jan 31 '17
Oct 31
Jan 30 '18
Jul 28
Jul 26
Mar 14
Jun 13
Aug 20
Jul 25
Mar 20
Apr 28
Aug 25
Apr 26
Aug 24
Dec 16
Dec 15
Dec 13
Nov 1
May 2
Dec 12
May 1
Survey Dates
3.0%
2.94%
2.85%
2.82%
2.85%
2.8% +2.76%
+2.75%
2.76%
2.72%
2.61% 2.70%
+2.62% 2.66%
2.6% 2.60%
+2.58%
2.2%
2.0%
1.8%
Jan 31 Jan 30
Dec 13 Mar 14 May 2 Jun 13 Jul 25 Sep 19 Oct 31 Dec 12 Mar 20 May 1
'17 '18
2018 +2.76% +2.75% +2.62% +2.58% +2.45% 2.45% 2.60% 2.61% 2.85% 2.94% 2.76% 2.82%
2019 2.85% 2.70% 2.72% 2.66%
2.8%
2.64%
2.6% 2.57%
2.54%
2.50%
2.48%
2.44%
2.41%
2.4%
2.38% 2.45%
2.15% 2.14%
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec Jan Mar 20 May 1
13 31 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 30
2017 2018
Survey Dates
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
Apr 30 2 3 2 1
‘13 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Jun 18 5 8 0 3 3 0 3 0
3 2 1 1
Jul 30 8 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 4
2 2 1
Sep 17 4 7 2 2 0 4 8 7 2
2 2 1
Oct 29 8 9 4 3 3 3 8 3 0
3 2 1
Dec 17 5 2 9 2 0 2 5 2 2
Jan 28 2 3 1 2
'14 7 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Mar 18 0 3 6 3 5 0 5 8 0
2 2 1 1
Apr 28 3 6 1 3 5 0 8 8 3 0
1 2 1 1 1 1
Jul 29 2 9 2 6 3 0 2 2 2 3
2 2 1 1
Sep 16 6 6 9 6 3 0 6 1 1 3
3 1 1 1
Oct 28 1 8 5 3 3 0 0 8 8 3
4 1 1 1
Dec 16 0 4 4 3 6 0 3 4 3 0
Jan 27 1 1 4 1
'15 0 3 9 0 0 0 6 6 1 6 6 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
1 2 1 1
Mar 17 6 4 0 3 6 0 6 8 8 7 4 0
1 1 2 1
April 28 3 1 8 3 0 0 6 1 8 8 9 3
1 1 2 2 1
Jun 16 3 7 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 6 1 0
2 1 2
Jul 28 6 1 9 0 0 0 2 6 9 9 9 0
1 4 1
Sept 16 0 6 2 0 4 0 0 8 5 8 4 2
1 4 1
Oct 27 0 8 5 3 8 0 8 3 1 0 5 0
1 1 4 1
Dec 15 0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 5 3 5 0
Jan 26 1 4 2
'16 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 4 8 0 3 3
2 3 2
Mar 15 5 1 3 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 0 3 1 0
2 3 1
Apr 26 0 2 2 2 2 0 0 7 6 9 0 7 1 2
2 2 1 1
Jun 14 0 8 5 3 0 0 3 0 8 8 0 5 3 0 0
2 1 2
Jul 26 2 0 7 2 2 0 2 0 2 7 0 7 7 7 2
1 3 1 1
Aug 24 3 9 3 3 0 0 3 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 0
1 1 3 1
Sep 20 0 6 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 5 5 8 1 0
2 3
Nov 1 3 7 8 0 3 0 8 3 2 3 0 0 5 8 0
Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies
Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates
Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy
Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation
Deficits
Other
Survey Date
1 2
Dec 13 5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 9 0 2 7 8 5 2
Jan 31 1 1 5 1
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
4 1
Mar 14 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 7 4 3 0
2 2 1
May 2 0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 5 6 8 3 0
2 1 1
Jun 13 0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 1 8 5 0 0 6 8 8 3 0
1 1 2 1
Jul 25 0 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 8 5 0 0 0 5 8 8 0
1 1 3
Sep 19 0 2 2 0 2 0 5 2 7 0 7 2 0 2 2 7 7 0
2 1 1 1
Oct 31 0 7 2 2 0 0 0 5 3 5 0 0 2 9 2 4 9 0
1 1 1 1 1
Dec 12 0 7 5 2 0 0 0 7 2 0 2 0 2 2 7 5 5 2 0
Jan 30 2 1 1
‘18 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 8 0 0 0 3 4 5 3 8 8 0
4 1
Mar 20 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 0 3 3 0 0 7 3 0 8 6 0
2 2 1 1
May 1 0 0 3 8 0 0 3 2 5 8 0 0 0 3 5 3 1 1 0
Other responses:
• Debt and unfunded liabilities • Market volatility
• Democrats getting control of • Supply constraints in residential
Congress construction
36.1%
This survey:
35%
34.0% 16.5%
30%
28.5% 28.8%
26.0%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
23.5%
22.9%24.1% 23.2%
22.1%
22.2%
20.6% 21.6%
20.4% 21.1% 19.3%
20% 20.3% 18.9%
18.8%
18.2% 18.4% 18.5%
19.1% 17.3% 18.6% 18.1%
16.9% 16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4% 16.5%
16.7%
15.1% 16.4%
16.2%
15% 15.1% 14.3%
15.3% 15.0% 14.9%
15.2% 15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6% 13.7%
13.0%
10%
Other
Currencies 17%
0%
Equities
17%
Comments:
Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist, B. Riley FBR: 2017 was the
year of pro-growth policy formation with tax reform and
deregulation. 2018 seems to be the year of protectionism with tariffs
and sanctions. The market is telling you which one of those is better.