CON

We NEGATE the resolved: Spain should grant Catalonia its independence.

Framework:

Today’s winner should only be judged based on the fact of which side provides the best
outcome for both countries. Not one country should be considered in this matter, but
both should.

Contention 1: Opening Pandora’s Box

John Rogers of Express News (17)[1] contextualizes that the outcome of the Catalan
independence movement sets a significant precedent for the rest of Europe and the
Western world. Problematically, Richard Palmer of the Trumpet (17)[2] outlines that the
Catalan referendum is a stirring of the most destructive force in Europe: nationalism.
Simon Jenkins of the Guardian (17)[3] corroborates that “Catalonia is being watched,
with varying degrees of intensity, by Basques, Bretons, Flemings, Scots, Bavarians,
Ukrainians, Transylvanians, Corsicans and others.” Palmer furthers that the principle of
national self-determination has been at the core of the 20th century’s most violent
conflicts, because empowering ethnic nationalism creates new border disputes, which
has historically triggered wars in Yugoslavia, the Caucasus, and currently Ukraine.

For this reason, Gretchen Schrock-Jacobson of the Journal of Conflict Resolution (12)[4]
empirically finds that nationalist states are 2.5 times more likely to instigate international
conflict than non nationalist states. As such, Palmer concludes that “the Catalonia crisis
is an existential threat to Europe.”

However, there is hope in the alternative: a peaceful solution. Recent events have made
this politically viable, as the Associated Press (17)[5] finds that in response to the
Catalan referendum, Spain’s two leading parties have agreed to open talks on reforming
the constitution.

Contention 2: Catalonia’s losses

Warrant: If Catalonia where to succeed we can see economic issues for years to
come
First, Income
The Washington Post reported that “Credit Suisse estimates that Catalonia's GDP
would fall by as much as 20 percent if it seceded, as businesses fled and trade with the
rest of Spain suffered. "A 20% fall in Catalonia’s per capita income would leave
Catalonia falling below the wealth level of the remainder of Spain," the report estimates.
"And this is not taking into account the likely effects coming from capital flight, financial
instability and the introduction of a new currency."

Second, Debt, Currency, and Brain Drain

In an article by Forbes said “Under any independence agreement Catalonia’s economy
would take a serious hit—Catalans would have to assume a significant part of Spain’s
debt. This challenge would be further complicated by the need to find a currency other
than the Euro, as Spain would veto Catalan membership in the monetary union. For that
reason alone, not to mention political uncertainty, there would be a likely exodus of
multinational and Spanish companies to other regions in Spain. An independent
Catalonia would have a hard time getting NATO membership for the same reasons.”

Third, Shrinking economy

CNBC stated that “At the same time, Catalonia could take a potential hit, as 35.5
percent of Catalan exports are to the Spanish market. Catalonia would also have pay to
create new state structures (embassies, central banks, etc.) which carry a large price
tag. Earlier this month, Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos claimed that
Catalonia could see its economy shrink by 25 to 30 percent and its unemployment
double if it splits to form a separate state. Regardless, the fate of both nations would
ultimately come down to the decisions made in post-separation negotiations on debt
and the European Union.”

The impact is a cycle of violence. Finance Canada explains that a one point decrease in
GDP, results in an economic loss of 5.2 billion dollars. This is problematic as, The
Lutskin School of Public Affairs writes that crime is associated with high poverty. The
Star explains this is because Poverty can lead to high levels of stress, which in turn
drive individuals to commit theft, robbery or other violent acts. This is why Cui explains,
each one point increase in violence, leads to a 27% increase in crime. The Continuation
of Intimate Partner Violence from Adolescence to Young Adulthood

Sources:

C1:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/02/catalonia-important-spain-
economy-greater-role-size

https://tradingeconomics.com/spain/gdp
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/spain-economy-survive-catalan-
secession-170930163702214.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/21/heres-how-bad-economically-a-spain-catalonia-
split-could-really-be.html

http://www.crfb.org/blogs/cbo-consequences-growing-national-debt

C2
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/11/21/why-catalonia-
probably-wont-secede-from-spain/?utm_term=.f7ac348ebf0b

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielrunde/2015/04/08/catalonia-independence-
artur-mas/#4a0b75a92a8e

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/21/heres-how-bad-economically-a-spain-catalonia-
split-could-really-be.html

https://is.muni.cz/th/401668/fss_d/PhD_Thesis_K_Kelmendi.pdf

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jomf.12016/full

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0886260517715601

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3653598/

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/forecast-for-economic-growth-in-
2016-gets-gloomier/article26465986/

http://luskin.ucla.edu/connection-poverty-inequality-firearm-violence/

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2017/08/18/poverty-increases-crime-rate-in-
urban-areas_c1618167

Cards:

https://www.philasd.org/centralhs/wp-content/uploads/sites/235/2017/12/Victory-
Briefs-January-2018-Catalonia-1.pdf