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INCEPTION REPORT July 2010
in consortium with
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................... 1
ENERGY SECTION…………………………………………………………………………………..41
TRANSPORT SECTION…………………………………………………………………………….77
TWRM SECTION…………………………………………………………………………………….123
ICT SECTION………………………………………………………………………………………….169
ANNEXES........................................................................ 219
Study on Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA)
INCEPTION REPORT
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
This inception report describes the methodology and work plan of the study for the
formulation of the Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA Study).
The study started on May 3rd 2010 and the inception phase on May 23rd 2010. The
PIDA Consulting Team (PCT), under the direction of Jean François Bauer, has
prepared this inception report. It has been submitted to the African Development
Bank (AfDB) at the end of a six weeks inception phase (i.e. July 2nd 2010). The report
will be discussed during a kick-off workshop scheduled in Addis Ababa for the week
of July 26th 2010.
The study is under a contract between AfDB and the consulting consortium led by
SOFRECO (France) and including ASCON Africa (South Africa), SOFRECOM
(France), Nathan (USA), SYSTRA (France), CabIRA (Ivory Coast), and MWH (UK),
referred to in the report as “the Consultant”.
The inception mission has taken place in excellent conditions. The Consultant was
given the heartiest of welcome by the AfDB management and staff. The visit to the
World Bank’s AICD team in Washington in parallel with the AfDB mission, provided
an exhaustive introduction to African infrastructure. The meeting with the Panel of
Experts (POE) and the AfDB’s PIDA Management Team (PMT) on June 17th 2010
was instrumental in framing the study issues. The Consultant would like to express
their most sincere thanks to all those who have provided their precious time and
advice during this part of the work.
LIST OF ACRONYMS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Inception Phase of the PIDA Study took place over the six weeks form May 20 to
July 2nd 2010 in Tunis.
The PIDA Study focuses on regional/continental projects that foster regional and
continental integration and participation of Africa in world trade (PIDA projects). It is
implemented through 3 phases: 1- diagnosis, 2- planning 3- consensus building in
the four sectors of Energy, Transport, ICT, and Transboundary Water Resources
(TWR).
The cross-sector aspects of the study are the screening of policies and projects,
the establishment of the outlook for the future, and the formulation of institutional
recommendations and processes necessary to enable the effective implementation
of the PIDA projects.
The screening of policies, projects and institutional framework relies on the analysis
of limiting factors. It seeks to explain why some policies and institutional frameworks
have been more successful than others in support of regional infrastructure projects.
In this regard the consultant will analyze the consistency of (or lack of) political
commitment, ownership and alignment along the decision chain from policies to
projects' implementation and make recommendations to be included in the
infrastructure development program.
The outlook for the future will rely on the analysis of past trends for Africa for the
period 1980-2010 and be prepared through the use of an economic simulation tool,
which will consider two scenarios for the period 2010-2040, (i) a “business as usual”
scenario reproducing the performance of Africa over the 1980-2010 period with an
average rate of GDP growth of about 3%, (ii) a "stretch" scenario with an annual rate
of growth of 6% comparable to that achieved by India and Malaysia over the 30 past
years. The output of the simulation is the macro economic framework, which will be
used in the sector models for estimating the demand for infrastructure under the
different scenarios.
The Consultant’s work on the sectors brings to the forefront the priority of high return
and short gestation period “soft” investments in terms of capacity building of regional
institutions and of facilitation of trade in energy, ICT and transport.
In the Transboundary Water Resources (TWR) Sector, the PIDA Study will focus
on cooperative mobilization and valorization of transboundary water resources for
increased water security, food production, hydropower generation, navigation, and
flood control. Since approximately 80% of Africa’s freshwater resources are of a
transboundary nature, it is obvious that equitable, peaceful, and sustainable water
resources development is not possible without effective regional cooperation at basin
level, in a shared benefits approach.
There are 60 international river basins in Africa, but many of them have no
coordination mechanism, while many of the existing Lake or River Basin
Organization (L/RBOs) are still too weak, with limited mandates and resources. The
The Consultant will promote the concept of “integrated investment programs” at basin
level, with a long-term perspective, focusing on tangible outputs in a stepwise
approach and with due regard to the protection of the ecosystems. Several L/RBOs
are currently in the process of preparing integrated development plans. Remaining in
line with the bottom-up and participatory principles of Integrated Water Resources
Management (IWRM) and with the subsidiarity principle, planning of new
infrastructures will not shortcut the existing planning processes, but rather propose to
strengthen them wherever necessary. The analysis of investment needs and
priorities will combine a demand-driven approach focusing on future food, water, and
energy demands, with a supply-drive approach focusing on the irrigation and
hydropower development potentials, taking into account the sensitivity to increasing
water scarcity in the scope of population growth and climate variability and change.
The PIDA TWR investment program is seen as a continuation of the NEPAD STAP
and will build on the experience gained and actions undertaken by the African Water
Facility (AWF). It will help the AWF to move to larger infrastructure investments to
ensure water security in Africa and achieve the African Water Vision: “An Africa
where there is an equitable and sustainable use and management of water resources
for poverty alleviation, socioeconomic development, regional cooperation, and the
environment”.
In the Transport Sector, the PIDA Study emphasis that Transport infrastructure
development is a key instrument for African countries to facilitate trade, strengthen
economic relations, create larger markets, increase peoples’ mobility and enhance
the overall socio-economic development while reducing poverty.
The PIDA study will develop a common vision for Africa for the next 10, 20 and 30
years. The transport team will conduct the necessary studies and analyzes (analysis
of transport policies, review of recently completed infrastructure projects, analysis of
on-going or under preparation projects, establishment of outlooks for the sector etc)
to ensure that the transport infrastructures and the relevant transport services are
In particular, the PIDA study will analyze the driving role of transport infrastructures
and transport services in economic growth and make sure that the proposed
investments and soft accompanying measures are included in the PIDA program.
The transport team will also ensure that the increase of the traffic demand resulting
from the macro economic growth can be satisfied and that the transport sector does
not become a bottleneck to the reaching of the vision.
The PIDA study will provide strategic leadership by mobilizing political action and
financial resources to secure completion of needed reforms and facilitate preparation
and implementation of sector development programmes and projects by RECS and
regional institutions. The study will find ways and means to enlarge the participation
of the private sector both in operation of transport services and the financing of
infrastructure through concession, BOT, maintenance and management contract etc;
in particular for ports and air transport
The Consultant considers that the implementation of soft programmes for the
removal of regulatory and institutional bottleneck should be a priority for the transport
sector in Africa; these actions need to be complemented by the development of
intermodal facilities and the reduction in the number of the missing links.
During the first phase of the study, particular attention will be gpaid to the projects
included in the STAP of NEPAD that have not, as yet, been completed. For these
projects the Consultant will:
Africa is an island in the middle of the ICT worldwide sea and African countries
are islands on the continent
The usage of the ICT services is beyond reach for the most fragile population.
Broadband access price correspond to more than 100 per cent of their monthly
GNI per capita (ITU 2009 Africa report)
The existing development is based essentially on a short term vision and just a
little of the total investment amount is made on long-lasting infrastructures able to
handle the Broadband challenge for the future.
ICT sector is a dynamic sector where tomorrow is different of yesterday and requires
a specific attention to secure the future (long term) and facilitate the usage of ICT
services by the majority of the population.
Until 2009, Africa was an island in the middle of Internet sea; the landing of different
Submarine cables in 2010 with more to come in the short term change the
environment of the Africa in term of worldwide connectivity; From a kilobits world,
Africa moves to Terabits one. This fact will connect some seaside countries to the
rest of the world; the case of the African landlocked countries is a question which
shall be solved if Africa doesn’t want to create an African digital divide between
seaside countries and landlocked countries. Interconnect the different countries
between them will maximise the usage of broadband and therefore will support
regional integration.
The ICT sector of the PIDA study shall focus mainly on how to solve this double
problematic:
Reduce the price of the ICT usage as soon as possible to increase the economic
development
Implement long lasting infrastructures able to offer broadband access and usage
to the future generation.
The mains issues to be tackled by the ICT sector of PIDA Study will be:
The challenges are particularly daunting in the power sector, which experiences
shortages and frequent outages that affect negatively economic development. The
poor financial condition of the utilities is a threat to macro economic stability and
thwarts investment in the sector and in the economy at large. The combination of
emergency investment, lack of financial discipline and poorly managed operations
leads to high prices for electricity and other fuels.
The response to these challenges will come from regional market integration and
large regional projects to increase access and lower costs while restoring sector
credit worthiness.
The PIDA Study will take into account the climate change concerns by analyzing low
emissions and clean energy scenarios.
The future of the sector will be built around large-scale investments, many regional
and financed in a significant manner by the private sector.
The “soft” component of the energy work will focus on regulations supportive regional
projects as well as on enhancing the countries’ credit rating and the sector’s
creditworthiness as a prerequisite to national or regional investment.
1 BACKGROUND
This inception report is the first deliverable due under the Contract for the PIDA
Study between the AfDB and the SOFRECO led consortium.
The inception team included Jean François Bauer (Program Leader), Ananda
Covindassamy (Energy Leader), Bernard Chatelin (Transport Leader), Olivier Cogels
(Transboundary Water Resources Leader), Claude Jacquelot (ICT Leader), Etienne
Soltesz (Institutionnal Development Economist), Alain Ballereau (Transport Strategy
Policy Expert), Peter Cook (Transport Projection Specialist), Idir Kendel (Energy
Program Expert), Hichame Selmaoui (Deputy Project Director).
A consultation with the Panel of Experts and the PMT took place in Tunis on June
17th 2010.
As indicated in the Terms of Reference (TOR), the inception report will be presented
to the stakeholders at a kick-off workshop to be held in Addis Ababa on July 29-30,
2010. The remarks and recommendations emerging from the kick-off workshop will
be taken into account for the finalization of the inception report.
Meetings with World Bank staff (in parallel with a AfDB mission) on the African
Infrastructure Country Diagnosis (AICD) data and study, the regional sector
strategies;
Analysis of the general and sector TOR and attached documents (PIDA study
concept note and TOR of the Panel of Experts);
Team discussions;
Preparation of issues papers and presentations (principally on scope and
methodological aspects) and their discussion with the Panel of Experts (POE) and
PIDA Management Team (PMT);
Contacts with some stakeholders;
Horizontal aspects:
Definitions
Sector aspects
This section will describe for each sector the scope, the methodology and data
needs, the detailed task description, and the work plan. As per the terms of reference
the sector sections deal with Phase I and Phase II activities.
1.3 Definitions
In accordance with section 2.3.3 of the general terms of reference the following
section defines some key terms.
Stage 2 Free Trade Zero tariffs between member countries and reduced
Agreement non-tariff barriers
(FTA)
Stage 6 Federalism EU + monetary union, and political, social and fiscal common
regulatory.
The AUC recognises eight RECs, each established under a separate treaty. They
are:
EAC 1967 Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, (+ Burundi, Rwanda in Full economic established In full force
Arusha 2009) union
IGAD 1986 Djibouti, Erytrée, Ethiopie, Kenya, Somalie, Full economic in progress no progress
Djibouti Soudan, Uganda union
The Power Pools are specialised agencies of the relevant REC and key bodies for
the power component of the Energy sector. The relations between the Power Pools
and the REC are described in more details in the energy section.
The Lake/River Basin Organisations (L/RBO) are the relevant bodies as concerns
the Transboundary Water Resources (TWR) sector. The relations between REC and
RBO and their impact on the study are dealt with in more details in the TWR section.
1.3.2 Regionalism
Regionalism refers to a common sense of identity and purpose within a geographical
area and is supported by specific institutions promoting certain activities among
several nations. In that sense it differs from multilateralism (where there is no
common identity and purpose) and from nationalism, which refers to a single nation.
The objectives of regional integration range from economic to political although it has
become a political economy initiative where increased trade is seen as the means to
achieve broader socio-political and development objectives. The focus is on
removing barriers to trade in the region, increasing the free movement of people,
labour, goods, and capital across national borders, reducing the possibility of regional
armed conflict, and adopting cohesive regional stances on policy issues, such as the
environment, climate change and migration.
1.3.5 Subsidiarity
Subsidiarity is the concept that a central authority should have a subsidiary function,
performing only those tasks, which cannot be performed effectively at a more
immediate or local level. It is best known as a fundamental principle of European
Union. According to this principle, the EU may only act where action of individual
countries is insufficient (Treaty of Maastricht 1992)3.
The principle of subsidiarity is intended to ensure that decisions are taken as closely
as possible to the citizen and that constant checks are made as to whether action at
Community level is justified in the light of the options available at the national or local
level. Specifically, it is the principle whereby the Union does not take action (except
in the areas which fall within its exclusive competence) unless it is more effective
than action taken at national or local level. It is closely linked to the principles of
proportionality and necessity, which require that any action by the Union should not
go beyond what is necessary to achieve the objectives of the Treaty.
In the context of the PIDA Study, the concept of subsidiarity will be useful when
determining the proper institutional level at which activities take place: for instance
not at the REC level if they can better be handled at the country level, or not at the
AUC level if they are best handled at the REC level.
From a geographical point of view, continental projects are very large; best justified
on a continental basis and have a continental footprint in terms of market impact.
Ideally, continental institutions (such as the AUC or NEPAD Secretariat) would
1
In Assessing Regional Integration 1, ECA
2
In Assessing Regional Integration 1, ECA
3
In Oxford English Dictionary
Using the same analysis, regional projects would have regional footprints (at least
two countries) with a significant regional or transboundary impact and are best
justifies in a regional or basin-wide context. A REC or a L/RBO would
sponsor/promote/coordinate the project.
Such projects strengthen the integration and development of not only the REC and/or
L/RBO but also of their member countries. The benefits are spread across member
countries of the REC or of the L/RBO. The links and networks are strengthened, the
availability of infrastructure services is increased, trade and the exchange of capital,
goods, services and labour across the REC are expanded promoting sustainable
activities and growth.
National projects
Projects are national when the decision making process, the financing,
implementation and the operation are carried out by one country.
The PIDA Study will analyse regional/continental projects that foster regional and
continental integration and participation of Africa in world trade (PIDA projects).
These will include “soft” and “hard” projects. “Soft” projects concern strengthening
the enabling environment, institutional capacity, policy and regulatory frameworks for
investment in regional and continental infrastructure. “Hard” projects include
investments in civil works and equipment. Each sector infrastructure investment
program will include both types of investments.
The different types of sector specific “hard” are explained in section 3 and
summarised below:
Water:
Energy:
Transport:
ICT:
2 HORIZONTAL SECTION
2.1 Introduction
The contents of the inception report are described as follows in the TOR (general
TOR section 4.2.4):
A detailed description of tasks to be undertaken, the schedule of activities and
resources allocated to each task;
A detailed identification of data necessary for the analytical work as well as the
data collection strategy;
The proposed analytical frame work to be used in the analysis of current policies
and strategies, the formulation of sector policies and strategies for this study;
The proposed methodology for the analysis of on-going and pipeline programs,
and in particular the definition of stages (milestones) defining their development
stage;
The first outline of the methodology to be used for projections, as well as trends
and factors underpinning the future sector outlook;
The decisions to be made by the client and the proposed associated schedule;
A proposed calendar for field visits, meetings and workshops;
The proposed structure for key reports; and
Any other issue to be brought to the attention of the client in order to facilitate,
monitor and control the Consultant’s work.”
The Consultant agrees that the contents proposed for the Inception Report are
relevant in as much as they mandate the full development of the analytical framework
for the analysis of projects and policies but only the first outline of the methodology
for the projections. The full methodology for the projections will be provided in the
methodological brief to be submitted eleven weeks from beginning of work.
2.3 Outputs
The PIDA study is a planning and programming study at continental level:
Output 2 Phase I:
Output 2.1: Methodological brief on the establishment of the outlook for the future;
Output 2.2: Proceedings of the validation workshop to record the consensus on
the methodology to establish the outlook for the future globally and for the various
sectors;
Output 2.3: Phase I report: diagnosis of the existing situation, sector outlook for
the future, analysis of choices and challenges and outline of the infrastructure
development programme.
Output 3: Phase II
Output 3.1: briefs for the preparation of sector workshops aimed at a participatory
strategic planning exercise resulting in a consensual strategy and action plan;
Output 3.2: proceedings of the four sector workshops recording the consensus on
the strategy and the action plan as a basis for the planning and programming
exercise;
Output 3.3: Phase II report: draft strategic framework draft infrastructure
development programme and implementation strategy;
This report is the inception report due six weeks after start of the study.
The Consultant proposes that a monthly report (of about 5 pages) be submitted to
the NEPAD Division Manager of the NEPAD Regional Integration and Trade
Department, in replacement of the quarterly report mentioned in the TDR. The
rationale for this proposed change is that it will allow closer monitoring by the Client
of the study’s progress and more regular interaction between the parties.
Output 2.1: methodological brief on the establishment of the outlook for the
future
The object of the brief is to present the Consultants’ approach to establishing the
outlook for the future of the various sectors. It will provide the basis for the
projections of demand for infrastructure services over the 2010 - 2040 period with a
focus on the years 2020, 2030 and 20404.
Part 1
The first part will provide a methodology for developing the macro economic vision
over the period 2010-2040 taking into account population growth projections and
economic prospects integrating available data from official sources (such as UAC,
UNECA, ADB, WB, IMF), the views of the stakeholders and the POE to be discussed
during the kick-off meeting and summarized afterwards.
Part 2
This second part will define and justify the methodology proposed for projecting the
demand for services in each sector on the basis of the macro economic vision.
This output will record the conclusions of the validation workshop on the
methodologies to establish the macro economic vision and outlook for the sectors.
The scope of Phase 1 includes three major tasks for each sector:
4 The justification for suggesting changing the planning horizon from the one in the TOR (2015,
2020 and 2040) during discussions with the POE and the PMT in Tunis on June 17th 2010 is given
in section 2.4.2.
The Phase 1 report will be structured in a cover volume and four sector volumes.
Cross-sector section
Sector Section
The first part will build on the methodological tools agreed at the validation workshop
(outlook for the future) as well as those proposed during the inception phase
(screening of policies and projects). This part will comprise write-ups on:
The finalization of the outlook for the future including projections (targets) for the
horizons 2020, 2030 and 2040 based on the methodological brief validated earlier
at the validation workshop;
The analysis of the challenges facing the sector in Africa and of the options
available to meet them; the options considered will cover the range from “soft”
projects to “hard” projects.
The compilation of regional and continental policies, institutional and regulatory
frameworks (relevant to PIDA projects), the selection of the relevant ones, their
assessment.
The analysis of the regional infrastructure projects (understood as PIDA projects)
including:
Existing infrastructure and
Projects under implementation and in the pipeline in order to assess their
performance and contribution to achieving regional and continental policy
Description of the outlook of the future and the needs indicating the potential
impact of constraints such as financing, institutional capacity;
Challenges and choices;
Options (various strategies to reach the targets) and multi criteria analysis
The sector workshops will be the venue for consulting with each sector’s
stakeholders at the political (decision making), technical and operational levels on the
findings of Phase 1 (needs, targets), define a strategy and an action plan to be later
articulated in programs and projects. The brief will serve to shape the debate.
This output will record the strategic consensus (strategies and action plans to reach
the targets) as well as possible disagreements emerging from the sector workshop.
The consensus will be the basis of the planning and programming work of Phase 2.
The Phase 2 report is the final draft of the PIDA study containing the three outputs
required by the terms of reference. It will include four sector reports and a draft
executive summary.
This will be a 15-20 pages document presenting the draft of Study’s main findings (on
the three specific objectives) as well as recommendations on how to ensure the
sustainability of PIDA as a major contributor to regional integration in Africa with a
place in the lending plans of the major financiers and a firm institutional grounding.
Sector reports
Each sector report will include three sections corresponding to the specific objectives
of the study as they shape up after the analytical work of Phase 1 and the exchanges
with the stakeholders in the sector workshops.
These meetings (with the RECs and other stakeholders) aim at internalizing the
recommendations of the draft final report at the highest levels. The proceedings of
these meetings will be recorded and integrated in the final report
This final output will be the final version the executive summary and of the sector
reports, which have been initially produced for Phase 1 and have been continuously
improved during the Phase 2 and Phase 3 consultation processes.
The structure of the final report will be that of the original report.
This will be the updated version of the executive summary of the draft final report.
As per the TOR, on completion of the work the documentation library together with
the working documents and other relevant information will be made available to the
AfDB.
The AUC Strategic Plan 2009-2012, in its vision for Africa emphasises the “principles
of subsidiarity, complementarity with other Organs, Member States and RECs; close
coordination and cooperation with the RECs; coherence of policies and programmes”
The Consultant will also refer to the international consensus on aid effectiveness,
emerging from the Shanghai Conference on Poverty of 2004, the Declaration of Paris
5
The consultant will not carry out a full causal analysis of policies or projects, which is
beyond the scope of the PIDA Study.
Even though the principles refer to national projects they are also largely relevant to
regional ones. In the regional context, they take on a new dimension: they do not
affect the relations between donors and beneficiary countries, but those between:
The figure below summarizes the steps between a policy and an operational PIDA
project (let’s call it “the chain”) as well as the institutions having a role at each stage
(milestone) of the chain: the Heads of States, the Departments of continental (AUC,
NEPAD) and regional organizations (RECs, L/RBOs, Corridors, Power Pools and
other technical institutions), of national governments and entities (administrations and
utilities).
The three specific objectives of the PIDA Study are also mapped, as they affect:
It should be noted that the Study will not “evaluate” the policies in the accepted sense
of an OECD/DAC evaluation. The Study staffing is only sufficient to review of t of
whether the policy is effectively applied and whether it is supporting PIDA projects.
The objective is to understand the causes why some policies and institutional
frameworks concerning PIDA projects have been more conducive to economic
integration and successful than others.
Each sector section will elaborate its approach to policy selection and assessment.
Policies considered
The Study will review policies and regulations whether they are formally approved or
not, such as:
Formally approved:
By the Heads of State or the relevant ministers at their meetings of continental
or regional institutions; (for instance the Yamoussoukro declaration for air
transport)
At the REC/RBO level as legal instruments (directives)
Less formally approved:
At the corridors level for transports or at the Power Pool level for energy;
In bilateral agreements between countries and IFI. Once several countries
have adopted the same recommendation by the IFI, it can become a regional
policy (for instance Road Funds).
National policies and regulations will be considered, to the extend that in a bottom up
process:
They affect traffic or trade with neighbouring countries (for instance transit fees on
ITC traffic from landlocked country)
They can inspire (serve as a model for) regional policies and regulations
The TOR rightly put together policies, strategies and regulatory and institutional
frameworks. These aspects are linked: policies need to be translated in strategies
then in plans and programs and finally in projects that are implemented and
operated. The link between a policy and a functioning project is the institutional
arrangement underpinned by an adequate regulatory framework.
As explained above, in the Consultant’s view, the consistency of the principles (or
lack of) (political commitment, ownership and alignment) along the “chain” is the key
to the success (or the failure) of continental/regional policies. This consistency is
strengthened to the extent that the policies result from a bottom up consultation and
consensus building process and not from a top down decision.
The analysis will also look into the two keys factors that explain the influence of
institutions along the chain, namely technical and financial capacity, as shown in the
following chart:
Each sector section explains the selection of projects to be reviewed and the
proposed methodology.
The table below summarises the cycle for a regional project and the institutions
involved.
The second difficulty is that generally speaking donors’ financing instruments are
geared to national projects. As a result regional projects are often financed under
agreements with each participating country with cross effectiveness conditionality
and implemented individually by each government concerned through the national
budget and according to national procedures (for procurement for instance). This is
a well-documented source of complexity and delays.
The third difficulty is that regional/continental projects usually require difficult to reach
agreements among the countries concerned on common specifications, regulations
as well as construction, operating and maintenance arrangements.
The major factors, which are likely to determine Africa’s potential needs for
regional and continental infrastructure up to 2030, e.g. growth paths,
demographics, technological trends, emergence of development poles in Africa
and the world, changes in international transport routes, economic trends, impact
of climate change.
The major infrastructure development challenges (regional and continental) in
terms of land-locked countries, economic integration, growth, and poverty
reduction.
The challenges that regional and continental African stakeholders must overcome
in order to implement a bold regional and continental infrastructure development
policy, e.g. enabling environment; financing; budgets and trade-offs between
national, regional and continental projects; the role of supranational bodies, sector
governance.”
Data sources
Projections are more difficult to come by, with the exception of the projection of the
population, available up to 2050 from UN source. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook
2010 contains projections of macro economic variables such as GDP up to 2015.
Time frame
The TOR propose that the outlook for the future cover the time horizons 2015 for the
short term, 2020 for the medium term and 2030 for the long term.
The suitability of this timeframe for the study was discussed during the meeting with
the POE and the PMT on June 17, 2010. Indeed it appears that the same time frame
is not relevant to the four sectors: TWR development takes place on a longer term
than ICT or even roads.
To make the short-term horizon relevant to all sectors except for ITC, it was agreed
during the meeting with the POE and the PMT to extend it to 2020 and extend
Past trends
Past trends will be examined for Africa as a whole for the period 1980-2010. For
comparison purposes, the same trends will be examined for several larger sized
economies in other continents that have performed well, such as India, Malaysia and
Brazil.
Data concerned would include the Gross Domestic Investment (GDI), capital inflows
(ODA and FDI), incremental capital output ration (ICOR), GDP per capita and volume
of exports.
The chart below illustrates the trend analysis that will be done at the beginning of
phase 1:
Some GDP indicators for Sub Saharan Africa, India, Brazil and Malaysia are
summarized below:
GDP constant, average annual growth rate GDP per capita (constant at 2000 USD prices)
1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2008 1980-2008 1980 1990 2000 2008
S-S Africa 1,87% 2,27% 3,99% 2,90% 587 531 510 618
India 5,55% 5,46% 5,92% 6,06% 229 318 453 718
Brazil 1,55% 2,54% 2,85% 2,48% 3 539 3 355 3 701 4 448
Malaysia 5,98% 7,11% 4,02% 6,11% 1 919 2 608 4 030 5 151
Source: World Bank, World Data Bank
6
As will be seen in the ICT sector section, actions with important beneficial impact can be
taken in the very short term.
Projections
Scenarios
For the purpose of projecting GDP, two scenarios will be considered based on the
data of the table above:
A “business as usual” scenario reproducing the performance of Africa over the
1980-2010 period; under this scenario the average rate of GDP growth would be
about 3%. This compares with a forecast rate of population growth of 2.5% and
would lead to only to a slow rate of poverty reduction (plus 15% cumulative over
30 years);
A "stretch" scenario with an annual rate of growth comparable to that achieved by
the comparator countries (India and Malaysia) over the 1980-2010 period or 6%
corresponding to a tripling of per capita GDP over the period.
It is of course possible to imagine other scenarios. A scenario less than 3% would
correspond to a constant impoverishment of Africa and would not be useful from the
analytical point of view. A higher scenario may be overly optimistic.
Modelling tool
The macroeconomic projections will be prepared for each scenario using an
economic simulation tool.
The input to the simulation tool is the set of data gathered, analysed and validated in
the trend analysis. The projections of population and the expected evolution of
growth centres (such as large irrigated agriculture areas, growth of the major urban
centres, and development of mining and industrial activities) will be taken into
account in the simulation.
As an output, the simulation tool will provide the macro economic framework, which
will be used in the sector models for estimating the demand for infrastructure under
the different scenarios.
Scenarios
Potential Growth centres
GDP growth 3%
GDP growth 6 %
GIS
Data
The Consultant will attempt to capture the possible divergent evolution of individual
countries (or group of countries) by:
Using the projections made by the IMF in the World Economic Outlook for the
projections up to 2015;
Basing the projections to the medium term horizon (2020) on AICD’s country
typology (resource rich, non-fragile low-income, fragile low-income and middle
income)7;
Establishing the long-term outlook on the continuation of the medium term trends.
Derivation of outlook for sectors
As explained in more details in the sector sections below, both econometric and
pragmatic approaches will be considered to establish the outlook for the future.
The econometric approach would link demand to the main macro economic
variables (for instance GDP and population growth). It will be constrained by
external aspects such as the availability of finance, environmental and social
aspects.
The pragmatic approach would be based on assumptions on access rates or on
connectivity.
In broad terms the sector approach will be:
For the energy (power) sector, the correlation between GDP and population
growth is well documented and accepted. The overall demand would be the
aggregation of the national projections based on national growth rates.
For the transport sector, econometric modelling is also commonly used. It can be
complemented by a targeted approach (for instance link all capital cities).
7
Africa’s Infrastructure, A Time for Transformation, World Bank, 2009, page 51
For the ICT sector, the demand will be projected on the basis of assumptions
concerning the broadband access rate.
For the transboundary water sector, the demand of water for food will be based on
FAO projections and on the assessment of the irrigation potential taking into
account water scarcity.
Since the consumers and the private sector are expected to finance largely ICT, the
financing gap is significant for the three other sectors, especially energy.
In all likelihood the financing of PIDA projects will come from the same sources.
The Consultant will not carry out environmental and social assessments (ESA)
(either on a project or a sector basis). They will be mindful of potential environment
and social impacts when placing various projects in the development program.
As explained below in the sector section for energy, climate change will be taken into
account in the preparation and analysis of possible low emission scenarios.
8
Detailed in AICD: 20,4 for operation and maintenance, and 9,4 for capital expenditure from
the public sector.
The Consultant will support the Client during the Phase III consensus building
activities by:
Assisting the client in preparing meetings with the RECs (and other stakeholders
as necessary) either on a sector specific or cross sector basis;
Presenting the drafts from Phase II to implementers (draft strategic framework,
draft infrastructure development programme including the PAP, and
implementation strategies;
Under the guidance of the Client, the Consultant will prepare the final report taking
into account:
Transferring data
Finally the Consultant will transfer the data collected, processed and analysed during
the Study to the Client including:
The data collected to date (see Annex 3 for the list of documents consulted) come
from several sources:
AICD
The Consultants was given access to the entire AICD data available and will use it as
a starting point for its data collection process. However, the review of the data during
the Inception Phase has brought forth the fact that AICD information incomplete in
the ICT and TWR. In the transport sector, international road transport data is not
available in AICD.
The Consultant has a track record of studies in the infrastructure sector. He has
managed and successfully completed a large number of studies in the sector in the
past years. The PIDA Study will benefit from this experience and the Consultant will
refer to the data collected in its previous studies. Through his past experience, the
Consultant has worked together with several RECs. These contacts will be used to
facilitate data collection.
The missing data will be collected as indicated in the sector sections below and will
include
9
taking into account the copyright issues
International institutions and/or specialised entity (IMF, WB for example) make their
data available to the public through Internet. Internet search will therefore represent a
large source of information. The Consultant will pay special attention to the quality
and accuracy of the data collected on the web. Priority will be given to official sources
The inception work has demonstrated that some data are missing, in the sense that
they are not available in AICD (for instance AICD provides no North Africa data), at
the RECs nor other regional organisations. This is the case of trans border road
transport or Internet traffic. In these cases special data collection efforts will be
organised. As described below, the transport team will collect data by organising
field visits while ICT plans to mobilise the regulators via the RECs.
The table below aggregates the work plans for the four sector studies into an overall
work plan.
The table given in Annex N°3 presents expertise of the all PIDA Consulting
members.
On the basis of their work on the inception report the Consultant propose a
modification of the staffing in the following manner:
Hire a GIS expert for 5 man months;
Hire a macro economist for 2 man months
The man months would be by reallocating from the Infrastructure Expert position and
the Institutional and Development Economist presented in the Consultant technical
proposition. These reallocations do not affect the overall budget, either on honoraria
or reimbursable expenses.
Team organization
Report standardization
The Consultant will use the report format agreed with the Client. We also remain
flexible to adapt our reporting according to the Client’s recommendations and specific
requirements.
All the deliverables will undergo a strict quality control process. Each report will be
reviewed at headquarters, discussed, revised and formatted before it is submitted to
the Client.
Respect of deadlines
The Consultant is committed to submitting reports in due time. Each expert will be
required to produce the expected reports according to the schedule presented above.
Progress indicators
These have been defined to be able to have at anytime a clear picture of the project
situation, especially in terms of respect of the agreed schedule, planned manpower
utilization, agreed deliverables and deadlines for deliverables.
The AICD project of the World Bank has collected a lot of GIS data (in the format of
ArcGIS shapefiles), which have been made available to the study team. A multi-
sector GIS, compatible with the AICD GIS, will be developed, using the widely used
ArcGIS software.
This task requiring a specialised expertise, the Consultant proposes to add a GIS
specialist to its team, by reallocating 5 man months from the Infrastructure Expert
position presented in the technical proposal.
GIS data will be used not only for visualization on thematic maps to be used for
communication with the Client and stakeholders, but also and most importantly as an
analytical tool.
2.7.4 Communications
The Consultant sees open and transparent communications with all the stakeholders
as a priority.
Of particular importance is the continuous interaction with the RECs and the sector
institutions such as L/RBOs and the technical institutions (such as Power Pools and
Corridors).
The sector sections below present how intensive and regular the interaction between
the Consultant and the RECs and sector agencies will be. The Consultant expects
that these contacts will facilitate the consensus building activities of the Study.
The Study will rely on data to be collected both at the sector and at the macro
economic level. The better the data the better the quality of the Study out put.
The PIDA Study in Phase II will define priorities among all candidate projects on a
consensual basis with stakeholders and make proposals for the components of the
strategic framework and the implementation arrangements. Disagreements might
arise between regional/continental bodies’ (AUC, RECS, Corridors, Power Pools and
River basin Authorities) view of priority and the one emerging from the Consultants’
analysis.
The difficulty in reaching consensus may lead to delays in the approval of the
Consultant‘s reports and lead to delays in the completion of the study.
These are exogenous risks seen form the PIDA Consulting Team that the Consultant
cannot mitigate.
ENERGY SECTION
ENERGY SECTOR
The situation is similar for natural gas of which the continent holds 8% of the world
total reserves (mainly in Nigeria, Egypt and Algeria) and accounts for approximately
6% of total world production.
Africa has a huge hydropower potential estimated at 1000 billion kWh / year, of which
only 8% are used. The continent has also 6% of total world coal reserves (mainly in
Southern Africa and Botswana). The renewable energy potential (wind, solar and
biomass, but also geothermal) is under-exploited, and only few countries are actively
working to develop it.
Mainly in:
8.6% of world reserves Northern Africa
OIL RESERVES
Western Africa
(African reserves grown by over 25%)
Central Africa
Mainly:
Algeria
12% of world production Nigeria
Egypt
OIL PRODUCTION
(38 countries are net oil importers) Sudan
Chad
Eq. Guinea
Libya
Mainly in :
8% of world reserves Nigeria
GAS RESERVES
Algeria
Egypt
Mainly:
Nigeria
GAS PRODUCTION 6% of world production
Algeria
Egypt
6% of world reserves Mainly in:
COAL
(over 95% in South Africa alone) Southern Africa
But:
HYDROPOWER Potential : 1trillion kWh / year
Only 8% used
But:
RENEWABLE Huge potential
Under exploited
The population growth induced a significant increase of energy demand and in most
countries the consumption continues to rise at rates faster than that of GDP. Africa
accounts for about 15% of the world’s population, but it consumes only 3% of global
commercial energy. The 2007 final energy consumption of Africa is characterized by
the big share of biomass (57%), and the large part of the household consumption
(64%) compared to Industry and Commercial consumption.
With 3% of the world’s commercial energy consumption, more than half of African
population has not access to electricity and use kerosene or candles for lighting.
According to UPDEA (Union of Producer and Distributors of Electricity in Africa), the
annual consumption of electricity was estimated at 488 billions kWh (less than half
the African installed hydro-power annual potential) from which Sub-Sahara accounts
66.7%.
Africa’s natural gas consumption in 1965 was 1 billion cubic meters and increased to
75.8 billion cubic meters in 2006, representing about 2.6% of world consumption.
Nearly half of domestic gas demand comes from the industry sector; two third of
petroleum products are consumed by the transport sector and more than half of the
electricity is consumed by the households.
Petroleum products consumption Two third are consumed by the transport sector
1
Angola, Botswana, DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Republic of South Africa (RSA), Zambia,
Zimbabwe.
2
Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, and Libya
3
Benin, Burkina Faso, Cap Verde, Cote d’Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Mauritania,
Niger, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Togo
4
Angola, Burundi, DR of Congo, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Rwanda, Sao Tome and Principe and Chad
5
Burundi, DRC, Djibouti, Eritrea, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda
Based on this figures, the total investment requirement to implement AfDB scenario
for universal access to reliable and cleaner electric power in all the 53 African
countries by 2030 is estimated at nearly 24 billion US$ per year, of with half in sub-
Saharan countries.
Low access to modern energy. The 800 million people in sub-Saharan Africa
(excluding South Africa) share a combined generation capacity equivalent to that of
Argentina (28GW), a country of less than 40 million people. Only 24% of sub-
Saharan Africans have access to electricity (versus 40% in other low-income
countries), and this figure drops to less than 10% in rural areas.6
6
UN Report 2008
If the current trend continues, fewer than half of African countries will reach
universal access to electricity even by 2050. Efforts to increase access will also
be affected by rapid urbanization across Africa. Rural-urban migration will increase
the focus on grid power connection in the coming decades. In fact, rural population
will decline in all income categories except in low-income countries. Meeting
increasing demand in rapidly growing low-income and informal urban settlement
areas will be a challenge.
Lack of power also holds back the achievement of the full range of Millennium
Development Goals. Without access to modern and sustainable energy services, the
poor in Africa are deprived of opportunities for to improve their living standards.
Although energy is not explicitly mentioned in the Millennium Declaration, the MDGs
cannot be met without higher quality and larger quantities of energy services than
current approaches provide. The contribution of energy services to meeting the
MDGs consists of both the direct impact of energy on raising incomes and the
indirect impacts on education, health, environment, and gender issues. The linkages
between energy services and the MDGs and growth are varied and complex.
The cost of energy to most African economies is higher than in other regions.
Presently, the cost of energy to African economies is higher than elsewhere: (i) the
cost of petroleum products reflects inadequate downstream industrial organization
with many inefficient refining facilities penalizing economies and the national budget,
and less than fully efficient markets for petroleum products sourcing on the
Energy Security
Power shortages
Universal
Source of instability Regional Market Integration Access
Sustainability
Bankrupt sector Low Cost Regional Projects
PIDA Study
Strategy
Programme
Implementation
The horizon 2040 is considered for “The long term Regional Investment Plan” as
explained below, while 2020 and 2030 are more considered as “programming
horizons” as only few new continental projects are likely to be operational and to
produce benefits before 2020.
Supply:
Purpose: Establish base line data for the year 2008, to all extent possible, for the
preparation of energy demand projections: electricity, biomass and petroleum
products.
Electricity: The Energy team will collect historical data at country level, aggregated at
sub-regional and continental level on:
Electricity production in terms of energy and capacity (distinguishing between
installed capacity and available capacity) from hydro, other forms of renewable
and thermal;
Consumption distinguishing between consumption mainly related to GDP growth
(industries and commercial, public sector) and consumption affected by per capita
revenue, demography, access (residential low voltage);
Transmission systems with a potential for regional exchanges (above 110 kV);
and
Regional trade statistics.
Biomass and alternative fuels: Biomass as traditional energy for cooking and space
heating is estimated to meet 70% to 80% of energy needs in SSA and about 40% on
North Africa Consumption of biomass as a source of energy is a regional issue as it
is a major contributor to deforestation and CO2 emissions and a contributor to
climate change at the national and regional levels7.; it is also a major contributor to
health hazard at household level with gender implications. Data and statistics on
biomass utilization as a source of energy are scarce, may not cover all countries and
are sometime un-reliable. The Energy team will nevertheless make its best effort to
collect consistent data on present utilization of biomass as a traditional source of
energy (historical series are not available). Statistics will be collected on wood fuel,
charcoal and alternative fuels (LPG and kerosene), on the estimated contribution of
biomass as traditional fuel to deforestation, and on the gender aspects of the
collection and utilization of biomass as a source of energy.
The Energy team will develop a simple demand projection model for consumption of
biomass for energy based on demographic factors, urban migration, and
modernization of energy consumption with per capita GDP (“climbing the energy
ladder” and substitution of more modern fuels to wood fuel and charcoal) and
potential for efficiency gains in use of traditional forms of energy.
7
Energy is the second largest cause of deforestation, after agriculture.
The Energy team will collect data on historical petroleum product consumption for
power generation (imported and locally produced) in volume and in value by type of
product, aggregated in terms of TeraJoules of energy and value in Euro. Demand
projections by demand center for petroleum products will be generated as a by-
product of the Power Sector Regional Long term Development Plan (see below).
The Energy team will collect data from AICD data base, the Power Pools, directly at
country level (Libya and Egypt) complemented by CEN-SAD data, IEA energy
balances, US Energy Information Administration (DOE).
The Energy team will analyze regional and sub-regional energy strategies and
implementation plans of UA, the RECs and Power Pools, as well as major donors
when they have strategies relevant to the African energy sector. The analysis will
cover not only general strategies but also energy strategies and sub-sectoral
strategies when they exist. The content of the strategies will be analyzed with regard
to the following aspects:
Regional integration;
provisions for regional energy project development
orientations regarding regional market integration
procedures for the development of regional energy projects
facilitation of energy exchanges
allowing effective regional coordination for planning, dispatch, trading,
technical standards
Sector financial viability;
management of utilities
contribution to address the financing gap
Approach to Access;
energy access objectives and priorities
PPP;
The Energy team will prepare an inventory of energy projects with a regional
dimension.
8
Energy projects located in a given country, but with a size or capacity higher than 20% of the country’s energy
consumption will be considered as affecting the regional potential for power exchanges, as they will affect directly or
indirectly the imports or export potential of the country. Projects which require the cooperation of several countries
for fuel supply (including water from common water basins), for shared off-take, or for allowing directly or indirectly
cross-border exchanges (including high voltage transmission projects located in one country but feeding into trans-
border transmission lines which will also be considered regional).
9
This test will aim at eliminating projects at a very conceptual stage with clear technical issues or with an
underestimated cost, which would “crowd out” more credible projects if they are considered as potential candidates in
the long term plan.
Infrastructure
Energy
Energy
Trade
Facilitation
Regional
Capacity
Building
Utility
Institutional
Development
Sources of data regarding regional energy projects will be the data base of candidate
projects considered in the Long Term Development of each Power Pool and in the
long term development plan of Egypt and Libya; Candidate institutional and capacity
building regional energy projects will be identified through the RECs and the Power
Pools and through the main donors (ADB, World Bank group, EIB, KfW and GTZ,
AFD, USAID, DFID, CIDA, ...).
In the power sector: Major constraints to investment in national and regional energy
infrastructure are:
Sector
creditworth
The Energy team will survey and document the sovereign credit rating of all countries
and their recent history in terms of sovereign borrowing on the international market,
as it determines their present capacity to contribute to the risk sharing of regional
power projects. At the power sector creditworthiness level, the Energy team will
collect information on proxies for assessing sector creditworthiness including sector
cash flow on operation, capital investment, nominal and effective tariff, Long Run
Marginal Cost (when available through national sector development plans), technical
and commercial losses, availability of plants. The Energy team will also document for
each country the friendliness of power sector institutions to regional project and
regional trading by collecting information in each country regarding the persistence of
a national monopoly for power generation, transport and distribution, the regulatory
situation, the existence of IPPs in the sector, the legal provisions for power trading.
Information for documenting the constraints on regional energy investment and trade
and development of regional policies for specific energy sub-sectors will be obtained
from the three main Credit Rating Agencies for sovereign ratings, Bloomberg for the
terms of sovereign borrowing, from the Rating Agencies (for the few African utilities
In the biomass sector: the Energy team will document experiences with the
introduction of higher efficiency heating and cooking appliances, and with fuel
substitution programs, with a special focus on identified obstacles and successful
solution developed to overcome them. The situation of traditional fuels expenditure
in household budget will also be examined to understand the issues to be addressed
under regional fuel substitution programs.
For the preparation of the Regional Investment plan at the horizon 2040, the Energy
team will proceed in two steps, using two interconnected tools.
Two fuel price scenarios will be taken into consideration, based on projections
prepared by IEA and the World Bank; each fuel price scenario will distinguish: (i) one
sub-scenario without assigning a value to CO2 emissions, (ii) one sub-scenario with
a CO2 value of $10/ton; and (iii) one sub-scenario with a CO2 value of $20 per
tonne10. Under the first set of calculations, Africa will be treated as a borderless
continent. Then, each scenario will be fed into the optimization model in order to
select the most economical (least cost) generation investment sequence over the
2010-2040 period and to design the supporting regional transmission system.
Several alternative models will be considered, taking into account the long time
10
The range of values for CO2 emissions will be examined and justified separately.
Starting from the Base Case demand, fuel price and zero value of CO2, three main
risks or constraints will be evaluated:
constrained financing: availability of financing for capital investment about 30%
below the requirements of the optimum case;
constrained imports for energy independence sake: imports of any country limited
to less than 20% of demand;
postponing by a number of years to be agreed with AfDB all projects with a cost
above $3 billion.
Each scenario will be quantified through a model extension to evaluate its
environmental impact in terms of GHG emissions.
A second module will evaluate the various scenarios which differ with regard to CO2
value, import constraint and financing constraint in terms of:
Investment cost
Total production cost
Economic losses
GHG emissions in tons
Energy security
and propose an overall ranking of scenario on a multi-criteria basis, using a
Analytical Network Process (ANP) instrument, to be validated by AfDB. The Energy
team will examine the selected investment program and extract the generation and
transmission projects which meet the criteria to qualify as regional and present them
as the Regional Investment Plan.
Direct consultation with AfDB and RECs/Power Pools on the structure of the
Score Cards for :
the assessment of the alignment of their energy strategies with the
requirements for the development of regional projects and the formulation of a
Regional Strategy for Energy aligned with UA Regional priorities (September
2010); and
the evaluation of the institutional framework and sector creditworthiness at
country level (September 2010).
Direct consultation with AfDB and RECs/Power Pools on the scenarios to be
utilized for the Regional Plan, including demand projections, fuel price projections,
CO2 value, lists of candidate projects, etc.. (September 2010) followed by a
follow-up consultation of the results of the optimization (November 2010).
Organization of a web site for virtual consultation on policies diagnostic and
proposed revisions (September 2010)
Workshop on the diagnostic on the strategies at REC and national level and
measures to be considered to improve REC and countries energy strategies to
facilitate energy regional integration; benchmarking of strategies with regions with
successful regional programs (December 2010).
Workshop at the end of Phase 1 including presentation of conclusions on
integration policies, draft technically optimized Outline of Regional Energy
Program.
Direct consultation with donors and the private sector on obstacles to
implementation of Regional Program, including financing (February 2011).
Workshop on presentation of the revised Regional Energy Erogram and identified
obstacles to implementation including reporting on creditworthiness issues and
benchmarking of the power sector of selected important potential importers and
11
PPIAF has developed a methodology for assessing the creditworthiness of Sub-national entities and
highlighting measures needed to improve it to come closer to investment grade under the Sub National
Technical Assistance (SNTA) program, which will be used, under a simplified format for African
countries which will participate in Regional energy projects, and will have to present acceptable levels
of creditworthiness.
In general, the RECs have broadly consistent policies articulated for electricity
around integration for sharing the benefits of economies of scales from large power
projects, continuity of transmission lines, coordinated dispatch, development of
regional technical standards and facilitation of electricity trade, and with regard to
renewable energy, access and the environment. There are regional differences,
though, regarding the instruments favored by each REC and Power Pool for policy
implementation, such as the level of involvement in the establishment of a
competitive power market or the development of a Regional Regulatory entity. The
task will analyze and compare the policies of the various RECs/Power Pools as of
2010 following the format given in Annex 4.
The Energy team will first benchmark each REC/Power Pool policy for the energy
sector against NEPAD’s priorities. For this sub-task, the Energy team will develop a
specific framework to allow the comparison. The framework will include two sections:
the first section will list a number of priorities (to be completed in consultation with the
client). The second section of the framework will capture in qualitative terms the
specificity of each REC/Power Pool which may not be captured in a “closed”
benchmarking table.
This sub-task will lead to the preparation of a complete set of charts listing for each
REC/Power Pool its policy objectives and performance indicators.
This task will present the reasons why some RECs have performed well compared to
their objectives, successfully influenced policies of their member countries,
succeeded in harmonizing regional and national planning, built consensus around
regional projects, and made good progress in implementing the STAP objectives,
and why others have met with implementation problems.
The analysis will seek to separate the causes:
related to country situation, for example, energy pricing policy, payment discipline
in the power sector, governance and business climate as measures by the World
Bank Investment Climate Assessment (ICAs) for the energy sector; and
relatedto the performance of the RECs/Power Pools themselves, including their
mode of governance and their respective convening/consensus building capacity.
In a second sub-task, particular attention will be applied to the analysis of the political
economy of regional energy project development as a determining factor of success
or failure. The analysis will be prepared following the Problem Driven Governance
and Political Economy Analysis (PGPEA) methodology developed in 2009 by OECD.
This specificity of the proposed approach is to apply the political economy approach
to answer specific questions, such as: “Why is South Africa limiting its electricity
imports under the SAPP?”.
In a third sub-task, the Energy team will benchmark the RECs performance in the
energy sector with selected regional energy sector integration schemes worldwide
(including SEE in Southern Europe, SIEPAC in Central America, GCC in the Arabic
peninsula, GMS in East Asia) and compare their achievements in terms of
institutional development and impact on the ground.
regional trading projects (mainly in the electricity sector, for the development of
regional markets at the REC level, such as the SAPP and the WAPP),
regional energy production investment projects for meeting the demand of more
than one country (Inga, EGL/SINELAC, Felou etc..).
The analysis will also review regional energy projects explicitly included in the STAP
or in the priority lists of the RECs.
For both existing projects and projects under development, a standardized template
will be used, drawing on the model given in Annex 4.
The first sub-task will be the identification of all energy transport, trading and
production projects with a regional purpose. As many power transmission projects
may have a dual purpose, serving domestic needs as well as facilitating regional
exchanges, the list will be extended to include not only purely regional energy
transport or production projects, but also projects which contribute significantly to
regional exchanges (such as the reinforcement of the Ghana domestic transmission
system which contributed to the reinforcement of the WAPP system).
The second sub-task will be to evaluate each regional energy project in terms of
impact, performance, financial sustainability, environmental impact, effectiveness of
management and governance, using the format given in Annex 4. Particular
attention will be devoted to documenting the completed regional projects which were
part of the STAP.
Under this task, the Energy team will produce a data base including all regional
projects for which documentation has been obtained. A GIS software will also be
used to locate visually regional energy projects in Africa and at the sub-regional level.
Under this task, the Energy team will interact with the Panel of Experts to produce a
limited set of key drivers for the future development of the energy sector demand in
Africa at the country, regional level and continental levels.
The first sub-task will be to agree, with a wide participation of stakeholders, on the
main drivers of energy (electricity and traditional fuels) demand, which will include at
country level GDP growth, population growth (and number of households), grid-
based access rate, future price trend, fuel price projections, growth of urban centers,
prospects for development of new world-scale natural resources in Africa, etc.
The second sub-task will be to convene a specific workshop to propose a set of
scenarios for the key parameters determining the future strategy and investment
programs for the energy sector at regional and continental levels.
The third sub-task will be to validate the methodology for converting the global
parameters into energy demand projections. The actual energy demand will take into
account presently suppressed demand, and affordability constraints. The Energy
team proposes to proceed in three steps:
firstly,preparing global energy demand projections for Africa, at the continental
and regional level converting the key parameters into a set of long term
projections for each scenario;
secondly use the model MARKAL developed by the IEA to convert global energy
demand into long term energy scenarios.;
thirdly, select a planning model to prepare optimal investment programs for the
sector for each retained projection scenarios.
The Energy team will organize a Validation Workshop, as requested by the Terms of
Reference, to validate the methodological approach, select the most promising
scenarios, discuss the model for the conversion of the scenarios into energy demand
and supply, and brief participants on the MARKAL model for validation. The
participants in the workshops will be the NEPAD/AU staff, REC representatives,
AfDB and World Bank staff and selected international experts in prospective and
energy planning.
The fourth sub-task will be the preparation of an Outlook corresponding to the
preferred demand scenarios using the demand and planning instruments validated at
the workshop.
By the end of this task, a limited set of alternative Outlooks for the energy sector at
continental and regional level will be tabled, after validation by the workshop.
The Energy team will complete the collection of the technical coefficients and
parameters needed for the preparation of optimized sector development plans for
each of the retained scenarios. The Energy team will upload the parameters
collected by the WAPP, SAPP, CAPP, EAPP and COMELEC for the preparation of
their own plans, updated as needed and completed with data from Libya and Egypt
to the extent the parameters for these systems are not included in the sub-regional
projections.
A second sub-task will be to complete and update the data base of candidate
projects, particularly regional projects, drawing on the lists of the regional Pools,
NEPAD, STAP, etc…
The regulatory aspects will examine whether and how the function of the Pools
regarding sector regulation, dispatch, regional trade monitoring, pool trading could
be developed.
The selected programs for regional trade facilitation will be supported by long term
capacity building programs tailored to facilitate the implementation of the regional
programs for energy trade facilitation.
The Energy team will follow the methodology detailed in Annex 4 and ensure that all
the questions and aspects listed are covered.
The role of the Energy team will be to organize a broad consultation to obtain feed-
back on the Outline of the Strategic Framework and validation before engaging in the
drafting of the complete Strategic framework. The Energy team will:
The second task will be the drafting of the Strategic Framework document. The
Energy team proposes, subject to validation by the client, to follow the outline given
in Annex 4. By the end of this task, a complete draft Strategic Framework will be
available, based on parameters and methodologies validated with stakeholders.
Infrastructure (the Regional Program for Energy) are consistent with the Least Cost
Plan of the RECs.
At the national level, the Energy team will ensure that the projects considered under
the Program for the Development of Regional and Continental Infrastructure for the
energy sector are integrated in the national energy sector development plan, in order
to avoid investment decisions at the national level contradicting the Regional
Program.
The consultation on the Outline Regional Energy Program will differ from the
consultation on the Strategic framework, as the purpose of the consultation will be to
reach a consensus with RECs/Power Pools and the main countries on the scope of
the Regional Energy Program, and to check that there is an agreement on the priority
level and characteristics of the selected Regional Energy Projects. The consultation
will have two steps:
The presentation of the process, results and variants of the Regional Energy
Program, led by the Energy team jointly with AU/NEPAD, to the RECs/Power
Pools, selected countries and the main donors; and
A bilateral dialogue with the RECs/Power Pools on the priority projects of
relevance to their respective systems.
At the Outline stage, the program will include the list of generation and transmission
projects, their estimated cost and technical characteristics, as well as their optimal
time scheduling, but not a detailed description of each project.
lessons learnt in project implementation evaluated under Task 1.1 above and a
risk analysis specific to regional energy projects.
The implementation strategy and processes will distinguish between the
implementation of Regional Energy projects of a “normal” size by continental
standards, and a few special regional projects which are special by their size or
strategic importance, such as Inga. Priority measures, resources and tools will be
identified for Regional energy projects in general, and for each of the special
projects. It will specifically address (i) the mobilization of financing; (ii) the
implementation capacity and mechanism; and (iii) consensus building between
countries and RECs.
12
The preparation of feasibility, environmental and social assessments and other preparatory studies for large
regional and continental projects, as well as for institutional developments under the Strategic Framework will require
substantial resources (development costs may amount to 3 to 8% of the total project engineering cost). A weakness
in the financing of preparatory work for regional or continental studies, technical assistance or project has in the past
been the fragmentation of the contribution of the donors.
agree on priority actions to be undertaken under the Strategic Framework and the
Plan in the period 2010-2015 and on an allocation among members of the
responsibilities for each action;
coordinate the actions to be engaged at PIDA and REC levels and at the
national/individual donor level;
act as developer of priority projects included in the Strategic Framework and in the
Plan and to provide seed money for the development activities;
maintain permanent contact with civil society, and also international fora where
energy issues at the continental level are discussed.
The Energy team will propose a process for assigning the PIDA Energy Program to a
Regional Execution Agency, under authority of RECs and respective Power pool,
once the Program is accepted and entered in force.
The first step for the implementation of the Strategic Framework and the Plan for the
energy sector will be to organize the presentation to a wide audience of both
documents in final form. The event where the documents will be presented would be
also the instance where the PIDA Group may be launched. The Energy team will
present a business plan covering the next five years for the PIDA Group.
The scheduling of each task is presented hereafter in the form of GANNT Charts for
Phase I and Phase II.
TRANSPORT SECTION
railways,
air transportation
maritime ports/trade facilitation/customs,
navigable waterways and lakes transport
Pipelines (for the transport of POL locally consumed)
Intermodal transport
Intermodal transport for passengers mainly refers to rail/road and rail/air intermodality but
rivers and lakes transport may also combine usefully with other land modes. For freight, the
rail/road/river-lake/seaports intermodality is of the utmost importance to improve regional and
international trade for all countries, landlocked or not in combination with an improvement of
the entire transport logistics chain, including customs and IT components.
Intra-African trade linkages are still very weak. Intra-African trade is less than 10 percent of
total African exports1 and rural access to roads is only 34%2, a dramatic score for trade and
more generally for the economic development of the concerned populations. The principal
obstacles to trade include among others national and international trade policies (barriers),
insufficient transport infrastructure, quality standards and maintenance, political instability,
underground transport economy and its illegal practices.
These obstacles result in a transport service cost that is almost twice as high as the world
average: 12.6 per cent compared to 6.1 per cent for the world average3, worsening the
difficult situation of African consumers and producers. Landlocked countries’ transport costs
can be up to 50 per cent higher than those of coastal countries4.
The transport/logistics cost of goods in sub-saharan Africa is one of the highest in the world 5,
making African products less competitive than foreign ones (even in Africa itself around its
ports). Also transport prices for most African landlocked countries range from 15 to 20
percent of the import costs. This is approximately two to three times more than in most
developed countries.
The continent has about 55,000 km of transnational roads: Source :AfDB – ECA
TNR 1: Cairo-Dakar (8640 km)
TNR 2: Alger-Lagos (4 500 km)
TNR 3: Tripoli-Windoek (9 610 km)
TNR 4: Cairo-Gaborone (8 640 km)
TNR 5: Dakar-N’djamena (4 500 km)
TNR 6: N’djamena-Djibouti (4 220 km)
TNR 7: Dakar-Lagos (4010 km)
TNR 8: Lagos-Mombasa (6 260 km)
1
African Statistical Yearbook 2009 (data 2007, table 3-7)
2
Against 90% in developing countries. Source: internet site of the Group AfDB, http://www.afdb.org/fr/topics-
sectors/sectors/infrastructure/
3
UNCTAD, ‘Efficient Transport and Trade Facilitation to Improve Participation by Developing Countries in International Trade’,
2003
4 .
World Bank Economic Review. 15(3): 451–79, 2001
5
As underlined by K.Y. Amoakowholed the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) in 1995-2005 at the rank of
UN Under-Secretary-General.
The road infrastructure statistics in Africa show6 that 65% of the missing links in the Trans-
African Highway (TAH) network are situated in Central Africa. Of all existing sections, only
one third is paved in this part of the continent. These issues indicate the particular difficulty
that landlocked countries face in establishing international trade and transport.
7
Review of Maritime Transport, UNCTAD 2008.
Maritime ports facilitate international trade, although they are only a key in a chain of
transport activities. Port facilitation in Africa leaves however some key issues for
improvement, both technical (equipment) as in port management. Particularly as regards
containerisation, African ports have lagged behind, while containerised transports formed the
major source of growth of ports worldwide.
Furthermore, crucial issues are the customs procedures and information technology that are
presently insufficient in most African ports to contribute to corridor development, serving
hinterland connections.
The biggest development in multimodal transport in Africa during the last few years has been
the establishment of Inland Container Depots (ICDs) serving landlocked countries. ICDs
have developed rapidly in Africa, particularly in Eastern and Southern Africa, as inland port
terminals in coastal or land-locked countries in the hinterland of one or more seaports.
8
Conclusions of AU Air Transport Forum, 2007
9
African Union, Development of Air Transport in Africa, 2007.
10
NEPAD Short Term Action Plan 2002
Environmental protection
Optimise the transport system and multimodal solutions to minimise the impact on the
environment of:infrastructure assets of construction works and transport operation
Traders
Passengers
Goods producers
Goods consumers
The transport sector for the purposes of this study will include passenger and goods
transport in the following sub-sectors: air, road, rail, maritime, river-lake, pipeline as well as
multimodal systems.
Pursuance of efforts to open up regions and the continent, and implementation of the
UN Almaty Programme of Action;
Enhancement of the efficiency of physical transport infrastructures and associated
services;
Freight intermodality;
Road, maritime and air transport safety and security;
Single African Sky” (the Yamoussoukro Decision on the liberalization of African air
transport);
The Consultant will prepare a set of visions for Africa for the next 10, 20 and 30 years These
visions will become the goals to be reached by the African continent. The transport team will
conduct all the necessary studies and analyzes to ensure that the transport infrastructures
and the relevant transport services are correctly developed and improved to satisfy the
transport demand resulting from these economic developments.
In particular, the PIDA study will analyze the role motor of transport infrastructures and
transport services in economic growth and make sure that the proposed investments and soft
measures that impact economic growth are included in the PIDA program.
On the other hand, the transport team will ensure that the increase of the traffic demand
resulting from the macro economic growth can be satisfied and that the transport sector does
not become a bottleneck to the reaching of the vision.
3.2.1 Background
Introduction
This tasks aims to evaluate the regional and continental transport (infrastructure) policies per
mode of transport (or intermodal transport) that are currently implemented (or recently
launched). The review will aim at measuring to which extent those policies are contributing
to productivity increases and transport costs reduction, that both should foster regional
integration through trade.
The Consultant will conduct three types of analyses:
The first type of analysis will aim at reviewing key transport policies implemented in Africa
aiming at improving regional integration through facilitation of regional transport services,
The second type of analysis will aim at analysing in which way key transport issues are
dealt with through regional or continental policies,
The third type of analysis will aim at reviewing the mandatory aspect of approved policies
by two or more countries.
The study will review the transport policies approved:
The aim of this task is to identify successful implementation of transport policies, understand the
reason for success and propose recommendation to be implemented by all the African RECS;
The Consultant will analyze in which way the key issues of the sector have or could be
addressed through policies. The analysis will in particular focus on the ways approved policies
dealt with key issues such as:
Analysis of policies related to the ways and means to better maintain the
Continental/regional road networks
The Consultant will review the various ways African countries may finance or not
maintenance of sections of their road networks that are catering to transit traffic (road
funds or other). In practice, the regional/continental road links are basically part of the
national road networks and are maintained with national funds, plus some supplements.
One exception is the toll roads between Mozambique and South Africa.
The majority of countries charge fees for trucks transiting through their territory. In
principle, these fees are supposed to finance the wear and tear and damage created by
these trucks on the road network and is directly allocated to road maintenance.
The Consultant will review some of these fees/user charges systems for transiting
vehicles (cars, buses, trucks etc), review if the revenues are sufficient to compensate for
the road damages created by the transit traffic and check that these funds are actually
allocated to road maintenance and rehabilitation.
The Consultant will identify best practices and make recommendations on the best ways
to charge these transit traffics (level of the fees, used of the resources, planning of toll
booths and the road works, etc.).
The Consultant will establish a list of the norms and characteristics of the continental/
regional road networks and identify key differences. This analysis will also include the
horizontal and vertical signalling systems as well as safety and security measures
imposed on the network (relation between speed limit and road characteristics, checking
of speed limit, crossing of heavily populated area, etc.).
Based on the norm approved in other part of the world, (more particularly Europe) the
study will recommend rules and regulations for the building and maintenance of the road
networks.
The Consultant will review the on-going policies related to axle load limit and size of
vehicles, in particular for large trucks. This analysis will review the reasons advanced by
the various regions or countries to fix the limits, review the key studies relevant to the
topics and make recommendations on the best ways to reach consensus at the
continental level.
A further, dimension will be the regional enforcement difficulties in implementing regional
conventions, in particular how to harmonize the axle loads limits to reduce premature and
costly road damages.
The consultant will review policies related to transit, including trucking market sharing
agreement and treaties restricting competition, customs procedures for transit, delays at
ports and control processes during transit and at borders. Estimates of added costs for
transport will be carried out on typical corridors, as well as impact on low trucks use and
reduced productivity.
Lifting of road blocks controls and abnormal practices reduction through facilitation
regional policies will be reviewed as well as reasons for their failure. The role of shipper’s
councils for landlocked countries will be reviewed as well as ways to alleviate the negative
impact on transit traffic. Recommendations will be made based on best practices.
Today, there are four sizes of gauges in use in Africa from 60 cm to 1,45 m. (standard
gauge). Various on-going or recent railway studies seem to recommend the adoption of
the standard gauge. The Consultant will review existing policies related to the size of
railways’ gauge and propose to study all the issues related to the size in order to reach a
consensus on the type of gauge the best adapted to the African railways.
Analysis of the policies related to muti-modal transport and Containers use for regional
land transport
The Consultant will review policies to expand the use of container for land transport and
the requirement for transfer stations or dry ports to ease trans-loading costs to road or
river transport. The policies to develop legal instruments to ease the responsibility sharing
among transport modes and intermediaries will be analyzed and recommendations made
to generalize regional and continental container transport.
To day, especially in Western Africa, numerous ports compete for the same regional traffic
from and to the landlocked countries. The Consultant will review policies related to port
competition and identify the best ways to make African ports more competitive and less
costly through, possibly, the implementation of policies aiming at developing more efficient
port system in each RECS.
Analysis of ways and means to increase private sector participation in port investment
Ports and airports are infrastructure perfectly suited for private sector investment. More
and more countries rely on the Private participation for the financing of these
infrastructures. The PIDA study will review which type of policies should be put in place at
national and regional level to establish an enabling environment for the particiatpion of eh
private sector.
Some years ago, UNCTAD has launched a program (the 40/40/20) aiming at helping
developing countries in establishing their own national fleet. This program has not been
very successful (except for Morocco) but has resulted in the establishment of monopoly
situation extremely costly. The old system of conferences has also disturbed free market
in the shipping industry. The Consultant will review on-going policies related to the
shipping industry and make recommendation on the best ways to make the industry more
competitive in an effort to reduce shipping costs.
Analysis of regional policies related to customs transit procedures and their impact
The Consultant will review policies recommended by the World Customs Organization to
speed up transit time at port and give preferential treatment to landlocked countries
goods. These policies will be compared with actual practices and ports delays affecting
goods in
transit as well as national bound traffic. The discrepancies between more efficient port
management for vessels will be compared with current long dwell time for cargo and
containers at ports, costing huge amounts in demurrage fees and inventory costs,
resulting in higher consumer good and intermediate consumption prices.
These customs delays are very costly and render many African products uncompetitive on
regional as well as world markets. Customs reforms will be encouraged to avoid blocking
goods by more recourse to selectivity in defining which lots to control,
The consultant will review regional policies related to this objective for air freedom in
Africa. The analysis will dwell on the slow evolution with the adoption of laws backing
such a principle.
Particular attention will be given to analyze in which ways existing policies aim at finding
regional or continental solutions to the key issues stated above.
The Consultant will analyze the various ways these issues are resolved and when possible,
identify best practices.
Typically the instrument is an agreement among the parties that sets out the objectives,
principles, institutions and mechanisms for jointly managing the development and operations
of transport projects, systems, policies and regulations.
The SADC region, for example, has followed variable routes in developing and signing legal
instruments to govern and manage transport corridor developments and operations. The
instruments adopted include Memorandum of Understanding (TKC, Beira, Nacala, Mtwara),
constitution – (Dar es Salaam) and memorandum and articles of association-(Maputo
Corridor).
The Consultant will review this issue and propose a program to try to find remedy.
For each transport mode, (road, rail, river/lake, maritime, air, pipeline and intermodal
transport) the Consultant will conduct an overall assessment of policies that are relevant for
regional and continental transport development by reviewing, when existing, the quantifiable
objectives that were set. In case of qualitative objectives, the consultant will define
measurable indicators that relate most to these aspects of transport policies.
An identification of the relevant policies and current policy initiatives dealing with each of
the particular issues describe above
The objectives to be achieved by the given policies
The status of implementation (what actions have been undertaken and to what extent
objectives have been achieved?)
The coordinating and supervising organizations (RECS, Specialized institution etc)
The level of harmonization of regional and continental transport polices to resolve the
given issue and possible conflicting problems.
A detailed analysis of the limiting factors, describing the reasons that limited the level of
achievement of the policy objectives.
Summary of evaluation results focusing on:
Lack of policy principles and interpretation (policy conflicts);
Lack of political will/political context
Weak Decision-making & prioritization process at regional and continental level;
Insufficient Coordination & supervision capability
Lack of necessary Financial sources;
Inadequate Institutions, skills & human resources;
Possible technical inconsistencies
Other issues
The result of the policy analysis will be a framework that presents the level of achievement
of policy objectives as well as a causal analysis to resolve the key issues stated above. From
the analysis, and on the basis of best practices, conclusions will be made as regards the
feasibility of improving policy implementation in order to achieve the set objectives.
Where possible, an economic indicator analysis will be carried out. However, it is foreseen
that certain limiting factors remain difficult to be translated in quantifiable data (e.g. political
impacts, lack of skills and harmonisation). Therefore the causal analysis will contain a
detailed description of the qualitative elements as well. The same list of performance
indicators will be used in the projection and the outlook for the future.
The Consultant will rely on documents to be compiled from available data sources and other
documents to be collected from the RECs, namely:
Previous study reports, regional policy documents, national policy documentation with a
regional impact, legal and regulatory texts, reviews and evaluations of policies.
Meetings, interviews, correspondence with persons involved in transport policy in various
African countries.
As mentioned above the sources of information will be among others:
Customs data
Economic reports and statistic
Success and failure stories
3.3.3 Background
The consultant will analyse existing, recently completed regional and continental
infrastructure and associated services, It will also collect data on those under implementation
and those that are in the pipeline.
For the existing regional infrastructure, the Consultant proposes to consider as regional
projects:
All the transport infrastructure projects that have been completed under the second
transport decade (The second African Transport Decade was comprised of 508 transport
projects (373 national projects and 135 regional projects) of which only 239 were
completed at the end of the decade of which 41 were regional projects).
All the transport infrastructure projects that have been completed infrastructure under the
NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (The STAP was comprised of 70 projects and extended
to more than 100 all qualified as regional projects)
The transport infrastructure built in a given country that is part of the trans African highway
or of the regional organizations (RECS) approved networks
For the on-going and proposed projects, the Consultant will refer to the actual RECs
programs verifying the status of the projects not completed under the second decade (are
they on-going or still in the pipeline) and the ones of the NEPAD.
All the completed infrastructure projects that will be identified according to the methodology
above will be introduced into the GIS system and the existing capacities of these
infrastructures will be evaluated.
As per the TORS, the Consultant will select from this long list of infrastructure projects a
series of infrastructure projects that seems relevant to represent example of good and bad
practices. The selection will be made in close coordination with the client.
The Consultant proposes that the regional projects to be more carefully studied be selected
according to the the following criteria:
A large project which may affect indirectly regional trade exchanges and transport (for
example, a regional port rehabilitation)
A project which is part of the agreed regional networks defined by the RECS
Special attention will also be paid to regional and continental infrastructure projects that
have, or could have a particular importance in the development of international transport
(and trade) in Africa, hence the major rail and road corridors, hubs, lakes, rivers and ports
around the continent. Hence, a selection will take place on the basis of representativeness
and substance in terms of transport volume, country data like population and GDP, corridor
function, potential for public-private partnership (PPP), project implementation experience,
etc.
For the selected projects, the Consultant will:
Review in which way these projects have an impact on the regional and continental
policies mentioned above;
When the impact of the infrastructure is not at the expected level, Determine the potential
for improving the performance of the existing infrastructures for long term development
prospects;
When necessary formulate the measures to be taken to improve the efficiency of
implementation of programs for the development of regional and continental
infrastructures;
Review all the problems and difficulties encounter during the cycle of the project
The Consultant will pay a particular importance to the fourth point that is a thorough analysis
of the difficulties encountered by the implementation agencies during the cycle of the project.
For the on-going and proposed projects, the Consultant will refer to the actual RECs
programs verifying the status of the projects not completed under the second decade (are
they on-going or still in the pipeline) and the ones of the STAP..
The Consultant will select a list of projects to be studied in details in close coordination with
the client. The projects will be selected among:
The projects identified for the AU/NEPAD Short Term Action Plan
AfDB’s proposed Highway Corridors in Sub-Saharan Africa
Road Network Upgrading and Overland Trade Expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa, World
Bank 2006
The projects of the North-South Corridor (road and rail).
The Central African road links (for instance like the recently announced Nyamitanga-
Ruhwa- Ntendezi -Mwityazo Road Project between Burundi and Rwanda).
The priority projects from the Transport Consensual Masterplan in Central Africa
(PDCT-AC).
The update infrastructure connections (road, rail, maritime ports) analyzed in the study
Trade and Transport Facilitation: East and Southern Africa (ConsiliumLegis Ltd, 2003);
Beira – Lusaka road corridor·
Durban – Lusaka road corridors (via Beit Bridge and via Plumtree)
Maputo – Johannesburg rail corridor·
Durban – Lusaka rail corridors (via Beit Bridge and via Plumtree)
Mombasa – Nairobi - Kampala – Kigali - Bujumbura road corridor
Mombasa – Malaba – Kampala – Kasese rail corridor
Dar es Salaam – Isaka (rail) – Kigali – Goma (road) road/rail corridor
The Main maritime ports around the continent that are linked to regional corridors as
described above. These will include among others Durban, Mombasa, Maputo, Dar es
Salaam and Beira, Abidjan, Dakar etc..
The infrastructure in the so-called SANE countries (South Africa, Algeria, Nigeria and
Egypt). These four countries are viewed as Africa’s best chance of producing an
economic bloc comparable to the BRIC economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China).
These countries represent almost a third of Africa’s population and account for more than
half of its total GDP.
The Main road and railway connections in northern Africa with a regional function.
The Railway connections with private operations/concessions (e.g. as in
Senegal/Mali, the Maputo Corridor, lines in Cameroon, Zambia and Malawi), which may
provide relevant information for the possible future privatization of other lines.
The Main rivers and lakes transport corridors and transshipment facilities with regional
importance.
The Main airports in terms of (potential) international passenger and freight traffic within
Africa.
The structures that facilitate international transport (e.g. border-crossing bridges like the
planned Congo bridge or lengthening of runways).
The essential intermodal facilities (port-road/rail, road/rail, river-road/rail) with regional
corridor importance. etc
As mentioned, the set of projects will be agreed upon between the Consultant and the Client
and will comprise at least five projects, including some projects retained at flagship projects
in the STAP.
When available, transport and economic documentation on these projects will be found from
World Bank, more particularly the AICD study, African Development Bank, AUC, NEPAD,
RECs and other institutions.
As for the selected projects, the Consultant will aim at:
assessing the contribution of these infrastructures to reaching policy objectives; and
highlighting how various factors constrain the quick and smooth implementation of these
projects (e.g. the possible gaps between budgets and initial and present schedules; the
factors causing such gaps; the conditions of coordination and decision-making on the key
3.4.1 Background
For the PIDA transport planning exercise, a vision will be established of the sector needs for
the next 10, 20 and 30 years in order to identify, design and implement a rational and
efficient investment program. This involves a comparison of the existing and planned
regional infrastructure capacities with the estimated regional, continental and inter-
continental traffic and trade forecasts, leading to the identification of significant gaps and
bottlenecks and aiding in the definition of investment programs that will overcome these gaps
and bottlenecks.
Future regional traffic will build on the level of existing trade and traffic and on the social and
economic growth of the various regions in Africa. Although it is stated in the TORs, that the
base year will be taken as 2007 (the base year of the AICD study), and the past trend for the
period 1998-2007, the Consultant is planning to update these data, where possible, to 2009,
particularly with respect to traffic and trade data. This updating will take advantage of the
recent work of team members in three key regions where many of these data have already
3.5.1 Background
This task builds on the results of Task B1 and extends that work to analyze the options
available for resolving the constraints and bottlenecks that have been identified in B1.
To accomplish this, the Consultant will carry out an approach including:
Economic and financial efficiency considerations of different modes and corridors in
regional markets and for serving multiple purposes.
The compliance of the potential projects or improvements with regional and national
development plans and policy objectives
The trade-offs between potentially conflicting plans, policies and objectives and their
impacts on the regional economy
The possible role of private sector competition in bringing about the potential
developments
Each mode of transport has its own characteristics and is more or less suited to satisfy
specific transport demand than the other. Rail transport, for example, has to run on dedicated
infrastructures which result in high fixed costs and relatively low marginal costs. On the
contrary, road transport has very low fix costs and high marginal costs. As a result transport
of small loads over short distances will be much more costly by rail than by road. Because of
its heavy structure and lack of maniability, transport by rail is usually slower than by road but
it is much less polluting and much more secure in term of safety (much less accident, no HIV
risk,etc).
River transport has low fix costs and relatively low marginal costs and transport by barges is
much less costly than by any other mode of transport. As rail transport, river transport is not
polluting and very safe. Unfortunately, only limited portion of the numerous African rivers are
navigable over long distance. Ports are under equipped and tugs and barges are often old
and obsolete and river and lake transport is very small.
The core of the railway network has been established 50 to 100 years ago and, over the last
30 years, only a few kilometres of railway lines have been built when thousands of kilometres
of road have been constructed. For various reasons, road transport in Africa has developed
at a much higher speed than rail transport and today, less than 10% of imported and
exported traffic at key ports arrive or quit the port on a railway wagon. In some regions of
Africa, particularly in Western and Central Africa, this is partly explained by the lack of
connectivity of the railway networks. But even in Eastern and Southern Africa where all the
railways networks are interconnected, the share of rail traffic remains low.
Despite the speeding-up of the development of road infrastructure over the last few years,
some parts of the Trans African Highways are not as yet competed, particularly in Central
Africa where the road connectivity of all the capital is not a reality. In addition, international
road traffic is hampered by a series of issues such as numerous informal road stops,
inefficient border crossings, lack of harmonization of axle loads and size of vehicles etc.
Land transport
The objectives of the analysis are to define the best systems of transport (in term of costs,
speed and security) for different categories of transport (transport of passengers, transport of
containers, transport of agricultural product and foods, transport of mineral products, etc.)
over short, medium and long distances.
For the selection of transport mode, the trade offs are between operating costs, depreciation
costs of the infrastructure and maintenance costs.
For each category of transport demand (type of goods and distance of transport) the
consultant will compute the total costs of transport for each mode (road, rail and river) for
typical homogeneous sections in terms of distance and terrain. This will lead to the
preparation of a matrix giving the total transport costs for each mode of transport (or
combination of modes when multimodal is possible) for each category of transport demand.
Depending of the type of transport infrastructure available along a given corridors, this matrix
will indicate the most economical transport system.
It should be noted then, that the best theoretical transport system is often jeopardized by
inappropriate polices or other bottleneck such as:
Slow and costly border crossing (for all modes or for one specific mode)
Informal and costly stops along the roads
Inappropriate road maintenance system
Poorly managed railways
Inadequate systems of dredging and signalling of rivers
Inefficientland transport access to ships within ports (in particular for traffic to and from
landlocked countries)
Lack of freedom for the selection of trucks for traffic to and from landlocked countries
Inappropriate rail connections within the ports etc.
Based on the above analysis (total costs, policies and other constraints) and the traffic
outlook analysed in the preceding chapter, the Consultant will propose a number of realistic
Ports
As for land transport, the strategy for port development should aim at minimizing overall port
costs for national and regional traffic. The strategy should also result in reducing shipping
costs in order to increase the competitiveness of African exports and reduce import costs.
Except for the port of Durban in Southern Africa and Abidjan in Ivory Coast, the traffic of the
African ports, often competing one with another (as it is the case in Western Africa) is quite
small resulting in heavy port costs when compared to average port costs in other part of the
world.
The Consultant will conduct a review of port costs in Africa and try to prepare a matrix linking
port costs to level of traffic and port efficiency evaluated with a few port performance
indicators (such as dwell time of ships, number of loaded container per crane per hour, etc.).
The first step of the study will be to analyse ways and means to increase port efficiency in
order to reduce costs. However, it is anticipated that Increase in efficiency of existing ports
capacities will only slightly reduced port costs.
To analyse much larger reduction costs, the Consultant will study in which way a large
increase in the size of a few ports along the African posts, could result in substantial costs
reduction resulting from economy of scale for the traffic transiting through these ports. In this
case, the study would recommend the setting up of a series of hub ports along the coast, the
other ports becoming the feeder ports. The Consultant will compare port costs among the
African ports and review the port costs in other part of the world in order to analyse any
correlation between size of the ports and costs. Trade off need to be assessed with
alternative land transport linkages for transit traffic to landlocked countries in order to
establish whether a lower cost port may not be offset by higher land transport costs.
The next step would be, for each RECs, to identify which of their ports could become hub
and feeders, in order for the region to promote the design and possibly attract financing
partners for port extension programs that would include port physical facilities to be offered to
the other countries of the region as well as simplified transit documents for regional traffic
that will transit trough these ports.
Maritime transport
The port development approach for hub and spokes ports will be complemented by a review
of shipping costs for various cargo and ship sizes. The trend is that unit costs do decrease
with larger size vessels. Modern technology for ship design is aiming at increasing capacities
while reducing the requirement for proportional increase in vessels draft. Thus, the trend at
term, will be minimizing the comparative advantage of natural deep water ports.
The consultant will study in which way large increase in the size of vessels with less
requirement of sea draft will modify the prospects for a few ports along the African costs to
become hub ports. These larger vessels are reducing substantially shipping costs resulting
from economy of scale for all traffic, including transiting through these ports. Based on this
key additional factor, the study would confirm or modify the above recommendations in the
setting up of a series of hub ports along the coast, the other ports becoming the feeder ports.
The next step would be, for each RECs, once are identified which of their ports could
become hub and feeders, to promote these regional ports with shipping lines. Further, they
could possibly attract financing partners to develop feeder lines and extension programs that
would include upgrading port physical facilities catering to feeder lines in the other countries
of the region as well as simplified transit documents for regional traffic that will transit trough
these ports.
Air transport
As for land transport, the strategy for airport development should aim at minimizing overall
airport and air transport costs for international, regional and national traffic. The strategy
should also result in reducing air transport costs in order to increase the competitiveness of
African light and perishable exports and reduce import costs.
To improve competitiveness of air transport based on the adequation of the planes size with
demand volume and frequency, the Consultant will review airports facilities and management
as well as routing alternative between international and regional flights movements t in order
to identify and recommend which airports have a comparative advantage in becoming hub
regional airports and those that could be feeders.
The next step would be, for each RECs, to identify which of their airports could become hub
and feeders air routes, in order for the region to promote the design hub airports and possibly
attract financing partners for their expansion as well as to upgrade feeders airport programs
that would be offered to the other countries of the region as well as simplified transit
documents for regional traffic that will transit trough these airports.
3.6.1 Background
According to the TORs, from (i) the review of regional and continental infrastructure
conducted under the task A2; (ii) the formulation of the outlook for the future conducted
under task B1 and (iii) based on a realistic assessment of resources available for the
transport sector, the Consultant shall present an outline development programme for
transport infrastructure and associated services to the horizon 2040 in which the following
shall be highlighted:
Investment projects by status (under execution, in current pipeline, new ideas)
Institutional and legal framework/policies and other soft interventions that are required
Relevant implementation stakeholders
First cost quantifications and estimated deadlines
Specific choices and decision making issues, in particular regarding projects for which
bankability is uncertain.
With the available information that will collect during the phase 1, the Consultant will not be in
a position to respond to the full extent to this part of the TORS.
However, the Consultant will be able to:
The Consultant team, including road and other modal specialists, corridor experts and
economists, will review the available options and carry out indicative analysis of the relative
The Consultant team will carry out a country-by-country and corridor-by-corridor comparison
of potential improvements with development plans and policies. Then the team will analyze
conflicts and trade-offs between objectives of the different plans and policies where they
occur. Potential conflicts include:
Serving resource areas vs. regional integration
Overcoming existing bottlenecks vs. serving resource areas
Improvements supporting private sector development vs. other improvements
Improvements that serve primarily local and regional needs vs. improvements with
continental and inter-continental impacts
The Consultant team will organize a set of stakeholder workshops for the purpose of setting
realistic objectives in a transparent manner. Different options will be discussed with
stakeholders and the impact of alternative options on funding potential and development of
resources will be discussed. Then the Consultant team will summarize the results and
propose the most appropriate objectives.
Background
At the beginning of phase 2, the Consultant will propose a series of workshop to be held with
the key stakeholders. One key objective of these workshops will be to present the basic
results of the phase 1, in particular the methods used for the preparation of the outlooks and
the key conclusions and recommendation reach during the study. The workshops will also be
an occasion to discuss with all the stakeholders the proposed methodology to be used for the
preparation of a strategic framework for the sector and for the selection of priority project
through a multi criteria approach.
The type of workshop to be organized and the persons to be invited to attend them will
depend of the key conclusions reach during the first phase and of the key points to be
presented and discussed.
Background
The definition of a strategic framework for the transport sector is essential to identify the list
of priority projects and to reach consensus of the largest number of stakeholders on these
projects.
The basic rules and principles to be used by the Consultant to establish a preliminary draft
strategic framework will be presented and discussed during the sector workshops. Questions
and doubts raised during these workshops will be carefully registered in order to be reviewed
in details before the finalization of the draft. Some basic issues will be restudied by the
Consultant which will set up a permanent dialogue system with the RECs to keep them
informed on the progress of the analysis in an effort to get the largest consensus among the
key stakeholders.
Possible points of divergence between the Consultant position and the position of one or
more RECs will be carefully documented. When relevant, the Consultant will propose a
series of studies and analyses that should help Africa in reaching consensus on these points
of disagreement. These studies and analyses will be to be included in the priority list of PIDA
projects.
Work Breakdown
The preparation of the preliminary draft strategic framework will be conducted during the
weeks that will follow immediately the running of the workshops. The detailed description of
the tasks to be conducted to formulate this draft strategic framework, the identification of who
in the transport team will be involved, and when they will be involved will be specified just
after the running of the workshops. These tasks will depend of the points raised during the
workshops.
Background
The preliminary draft infrastructure development programme will be phased into the short
medium and long term. To harmonize the phasing of the programme with the other
infrastructure programmes under study:
the short term will cover the period 2011-2020
the medium term the period 2021-2030 and
the long term the period 2031-2040.
The programme will be prepared in taking into consideration the outlook for the future that
will be prepared under phase 1, the strategic framework that will be completed at the
beginning of phase 2 after the holding of a series of workshops with the key stakeholders
and the methodology to rank the projects that will also be approved during the workshops.
Background
The Consultant will aim at building a consensus among all stakeholders around a realistic
platform of measures and projects for the transport sector. In order to be successful in the
implementation of these measures and projects, the consultant will
Identify a list of actions, measures and projects to be implemented rapidly and certainly
during the next ten years;
Aim at achieving the largest consensus in Africa for these measures and projects
Identify the respective regional and continental entities and institutions that should play a
key role in the preparation a nd implementation of these measures and projects. Particular
attention will be given to potential competing position and all efforts will be made to
replace possible completion among institutions into an asset for the success of the
projects;
When a project or a list of projects or measures would have been clearly identified and a
consensus built around the projects the Consultant will assist all the stakeholders in
searching for the required financing, in particular by making these projects as bankable as
possible through better presentations, improved feasibility studies etc.
The Consensus building around key list of priority projects and measures will be achieved
through numerous contacts and discussions with the key relevant stakeholders.
The reaching of consensus will be facilitated with a clear definition of as strategic framework
for the sector and well understood project selection criteria.
For the discussion with the donors community, the chance of success will be increased by,
every time possible, incorporating the projects within a logical context of infrastructure
development within the region of the project. Insisting on the economic necessity of the
projects and demonstrating that the institutional arrangements already in place or to be put in
place will ensure a smooth implementation of the project and an efficient management of the
future operation of the infrastructure to be constructed or improved in particular its
maintenance.
When necessary, the Consultant will design programs to increase the capacity of the
institutions in charge of implementing and managing the priority projects.
4. WORK BREAKDOWN
4.1.1 Review and analysis of Regional policies of Transport and Transit (task
A1)
The analysis of the existing transport policies will be conducted by the Transport Team
Leader and the Transport Strategy Policy Expert. They will be assisted by the Trade and
Customs expert and the Corridors experts for the analysis of policies related to corridors
and trade facilitation and by the modal experts for the review of the specific modal policies
described above.
The Consultant will send brief questionnaires to all the relevant stakeholders requesting
data on their approved and on-going transport policies for each mode of transport. The
consultant will then conduct a desk review of all the data received from the stakeholders
as well as the data collected from all other sources. These reviews will be followed by field
visits for discussion and assessment of the impact of these policies at the AU headquarter
and in all RECs, with a main emphasis with the SADC and ECOWAS and a substantial
review of data submitted by the other RECs.
Based on the analysis of the key policies relevant for the transport sector, the Consultant
will prepare a brief working paper, summarizing the reasons for success of failure;
insisting especially on identifying the reasons for delays, conflicts and failures, in order to
feed into both the prioritization of projects and programmes and into the implementation
strategies and processes.
Data collection: The four modal experts(road, rail, port and air) will be responsible to collect
all available information on the completed infrastructure projects according to the
methodology described in 3.2.3 above, for their respective modes. They will review these
projects and evaluate the existing transport capacity resulting from these projects. This data
collection will be made through desk analysis and visits of relevant RECS.
For the selected list of projects, the assessment of the contribution of these projects
to reaching policy objectives that will have been identified under task A1 will be consolidated
by the Transport strategy policy expert This analyse will conduct to the identification of key
factors to better link infrastructure investment programs to policy objectives.
The assessment of the various factors constraining the efficiency of these
infrastructures as well as the ways to improve their roles will be conducted by each modal
expert. These analyses will conduct to the identification of existing capacity of the regional
infrastructure.
The assessment of the difficulties faced by a few selected projects during the cycle of
the project will be analyzed by the monitoring expert. The projects to be reviewed will be
selected by the team together with the sponsor. These analyses should lead to the
identification of key bottlenecks during the project cycle and the proposal of a list of actions
to reduce these bottlenecks in future regional projects.
Review existing reports with GDP, population and trade projects (in particular, the CORE
study for Eastern and Southern Africa by Nathan Associates and the JICA/MCLI study of
regional transport priorities both of which contain and summarize a wide variety of
pertinent data)
4.1.4 Analysis of choices and challenges for Transport Infrastructure (task B2)
The analysis will start with a desk review of all available costing models by the four
modal specialists and an agreement on the models to be used and of the needed data to
be collected.
The modal specialists will then collect available data for the costing in various part of
Africa taking into account the type of terrain and the various climatic conditions present in
Africa.
The next step will be the computation of door to door transport costs for passenger
and different type of goods over various distances of transport, including multimodal.
The transport team will then establish a matrix aiming at identifying the best transport
systems to be used in Africa for passenger and freight.
Working on the basis of corridors, the team will then propose a strategic framework for
the transport sector in the various region of Africa taking into account existing and planned
transport infrastructure. During this analysis, the transport team will consider the social
and environmental impact of the various transport modes as well as the establishment of
the necessary soft measures.
TWRM SECTION
The context of the study has been very well described in the ToR. Some key issues are
highlighted here. More than one third of Africa’s population suffers from water scarcity and
half of the African countries will suffer from “water stress” by the year 2025. Although the
crucial and central role of water in socio-economic development is widely recognized,
Africa’s water resources are largely untapped. Lack of appropriate investment in hydraulic
infrastructures and poor water governance are responsible for a critical situation,
summarized below:
the level of water resources used under managed conditions represents only 3 to 5% of the total
available resources;
the per capita water storage is100 times lower than in Europe and North America ;
only 20% of the irrigation potential is exploited ;
in SSA, irrigation contributes only to 10% of Africa’s food production while the average at world
level is 40% ;
only 7% of Africas’ enormous hydropower potential is exploited ;
millions of people are dramatically suffering from the devastating effects of floods, droughts, water
pollution and waterborne diseases:
Hydropower is the main driver for infrastructure development in the Transboundary Water
Resources (TWR) sector. But the investment needs for irrigation extension and better flood
control are also huge. Although irrigated agriculture is by far the main water consumer - an
order of magnitude more than domestic and industrial water use - irrigation development is
view as crucial for achieving food security in Africa.
Infrastructure development in the TWR sector has thus to be considered in the scope of
Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) through the building and operation of
multipurpose infrastructure for energy production, flood protection, and navigation, with due
regard to the protection of ecosystems.
The figure below shows a map of the international river basins of Africa.
An Africa where there is an equitable and sustainable use and management of water
resources for poverty alleviation, socioeconomic development, regional cooperation,
and the environment.
AMCOW has become a Specialized Committee for water supply and sanitation (WSS) in the
AU. Initiatives have been launched to contribute to the realization of the vision and
declarations made by Heads of State and AMCOW. AMCOW’s role is to provide political
leadership in initiating and sustaining political dialogue towards cooperative development and
management of shared water resources. The institutional structure of AMCOW today
consists of several political and technical entities at the regional and sub-regional levels,
working together to achieve the objectives of AMCOW.
NEPAD is working closely with AMCOW. In July 2002 NEPAD prepared and adopted the
Short Term Action Plan (STAP) which outlines the NEPAD response to the challenges facing
the water sector under four areas:
Facilitation
Capacity Buildg
Investment
An important development was the launch within NEPAD STAP of the African Water Facility
(AWF) in 2004. This facility, led by AMCOW, is a specific water fund hosted and managed by
the AfDB. The establishment of the AWF is considered as a significant achievement of
NEPAD STAP.
It is intended that the AWF will seek to improve the enabling environment and to strengthen
water resources management so as to attract the substantial investments necessary for the
development and management of water resources, meeting urgent continental water needs,
strengthening the financial base for sustainable and effective water distribution and
governance. Major objectives of the AWF include attracting and making effective use of
increased and appropriate investments needed to achieve national and regional water sector
targets in Africa.
In the water sector as a whole, there is a huge financing gap and insufficient commitments.
According to the AWV, the investment required is 20 billion US$/year to attain MDGs and
AWV’s targets. The Inhibited investments in water resources development is largely due to
poverty and indebtedness.
The specific objectives of the study are to enable African decision-makers to:
establish a strategic framework for the development of regional and continental TWR
development infrastructures based on shared development vision, strategic objectives and
sector policies;
establish a TWRM infrastructure development program articulated around priorities
established over the short, medium, and long- term horizons by L/RBOs and RECs ;
prepare an programme implementation strategy and processes including, in
particular, the improvement of institutional arrangements (such as regulatory and
administrative processes); a Priority Action Plan (PAP) and financing options including
measures for promoting, attracting and sustaining private sector participation in
infrastructure development.
The strategic framework and investment program will aim at significant increase of the water
storage and management capacity for irrigation, domestic and industrial water supply,
hydropower generation, navigation, environmental needs, and flood control. It will also aim at
a more sustainable exploitation of groundwater resources. The strategy will be to strengthen
the leading role and capacity of the L/RBOs for sustainable management of the shared water
resources. The study will analyze the requirements, gaps and justification for the significant
investments needed for the development of the resources as well as the options for
maximizing shared benefits or minimizing costs.
As specified in the ToR, the following objectives will be taken into account:
alignment of the long-term perspective with the Africa Water Vision 2025;
ensuring water security to meet future increases in demand for water and enable the
socioo-economic development of the regions of the African continent;
enabling the equitable allocation of water resources among competing water uses for
sustainable development;
equitable sharing of benefits arising from the shared basin resources;
adapting to and mitigating climate change impacts and variability in weather patterns;
enhancing regional cooperation by deploying the principles of IWRM, particularly for
shared water resources through the L/RBOs and regional water protocols;
ensuring AMCOW fully supports the outputs;
environmental protection and management as advocated by the IWRM principles.
The PIDA TWRM investment program is seen as a continuation of the NEPAD STAP and will
thus take a close look at the projects identified through this initiative and build on the
experience gained and the actions already undertaken by the AWF in the area of TWRM.
While the AWF is gaining experience, PIDA should help the AWF to move to larger
infrastructure investments to ensure water security in Africa.
These basins cover 35 countries and nearly 45% of the total area of the African continent. All
of them have a coordination mechanism (Basin Commission, Basin Authority, etc.), but their
mandates, political strength and resources are quite variable from one basin to another.
The table below presents for the selected basins, their area, the RECs potentially involved
and the L/RBOs:
% of
River Area contin
Countries RECs involved* L/RBOs
Basin (sq.km) ent
area
Organisation pour
UMA, CEN-
Mauritania, Mali, la Mise en Valeur
Senegal 436,000 1.6 SAD, ECOWAS,
Senegal, Guinea du Fleuve
(WAEMU)
Sénégal (OMVS)
Nigeria, Mali, Niger,
UMA, CEN-
Algeria, Guinea,
SAD, ECOWAS, Niger Basin
Niger 2,113,200 7.5 Cameroon, Burkina
ECCAS, Authority (NBA)
Faso, Benin, Ivory
(WAEMU)
Coast
Lake Chad basin
Chad, Niger, Central
UMA, CEN- Commission
African Republic,
SAD, ECOWAS, (LCBC), Basin
Lake Chad 2,388,700 8 Nigeria, Algeria,
(WAEMU), Commission for
Sudan, Cameroon,
(CEMAC), IGAD Strategic Planning
Libya
(BCSP)
Ethiopia, Egypt, Nile Basin
Uganda, Tanzania, Initiative (NBI),
CEN-SAD,
Kenya, Congo
ECCAS, Lake Victoria
Nile 3,031,700 10.3 (Kinshasa), Rwanda,
COMESA, EAC, Basin
Burundi, Eritrea,
IGAD Commission
Sudan, Central
African Republic (LVBC)
Angola, Burundi,
Cameroon, Central
African Republic, Commission
ECCAS,
Congo (Kinshasa), Internationale du
(CEMAC),
Congo 3,691,000 12 Congo (Brazaville), Bassin du Congo-
COMESA, EAC,
Gabon, Malawi, Oubangui-Sangha
IGAD
Rwanda, (CICOS)
Sudan,Uganda
Zambia, Tanzania,
Zambia, Angola,
Zimbabwe, Zambezi
SADC,
Mozambique, Watercourse
Zambezi 1,385,300 4.5 (CEMAC),
Malawi, Tanzania, Commission
ECCAS,
Botswana, Namibia, (ZAMCOM)
Congo (Kinshasa)
Okavango Basin
Botswana, Namibia,
Okavango 706,900 1 ECCAS, SADC River Commission
Angola, Zimbabwe
(OKAKOM)
*if one or more member countries of the REC are covered fully or partly by the basin
One difficulty of the study is that these River basins cover several RECs as shown in the
table above. This means that one REC does not have all the riparian states within its
members. This is illustrated in the figure below for ECOWAS, covering partly three major
River basins considered in this study: the Senegal basin, the Niger basin, and the Lake Chad
basin. The three basins all have riparian states, which are not members of ECOWAS.
The study will consider two types of investments: (i) investments in physical infrastructure, or
“hard” investments, and (ii) investments in the enabling environment for regional cooperation,
or “soft” investments.
The “hard” investments are the hydraulic infrastructures having significant transboundary
impacts and requiring the cooperation between at least two countries:
major dams used for hydropower generation, irrigation, water supply, and flood control;
we will encourage multi-purpose use;
major irrigation schemes/areas;
major intra-basin diversions
major inter-basin water diversions;
The “soft” investments are investments in the enabling environment for regional cooperation:
including:
creation of new and the strengthening of existing L/RBOs;
information and knowledge base, including hydrometric networks : considering that there
is a huge lack of planning data and knowledge;
planning and implementation capacities, modelling tools and Decision Support Systems;
communication and public awareness;
monitoring capacities;
flood early warning systems.
The Consultant will promote the concept of “integrated investment programs”, with a long-
term perspective, focusing on tangible outputs in a step-wise approach. An important point
would be to build within the projects a resource mobilization component in order to ensure
financial sustainability. Another important aspect is to take into account the environmental
dimension by considering the ecosystems as one of the users of the water resources,
avoiding mistakes of the past.
The TWRM sector study will contribute to the overall study outputs, which are described in
detail in the general part of the Inception Report.
Several L/RBOs are currently in the process of preparing integrated development plans,
often with the support of the international donor community1.
The consultant will collect the available information on the ongoing basin-wide “bottom-up”
planning processes, in which a large basis of stakeholders are consulted in the countries
involved. Remaining in line with the bottom-up and participatory IWRM approach as well as
with the subsidiarity principle, the planning of new infrastructures will not shortcut the existing
planning processes undertaken by the L/RBOs. Emphasis will also be put on the application
of the subsidiarity2 principle that a central authority should have a subsidiary function,
performing only those tasks, which cannot be performed effectively at a more immediate or
local level.. The figure below shows the position of the PIDA TWRM study as regard to the
ongoing project and program planning and processes.
1
An example is the “Schéma Directeur d’Aménagement et de Gestion des Eaux du fleuve Sénégal (SDAGE)” of
the OMVS, supported by he EU). A Basin Plan has recently been approved at Heads of States level for the Niger
basin. Another example is the IWRM Congo Basin Strategic Action Plan, with 140 projects proposed for a budget
of approximately 1.5 billion €.
2
The principle that a central (or regional) authority should have a subsidiary function, performing only those tasks
which cannot be performed effectively at a more immediate or local (national) level.
If for a L/RBO, the existing planning capacity an/or the planning process inexistent, the
Consultant will include in the PIDA TWRM investment program two types of investments in a
two-track approach:
strengthening of the existing planning capacity and process (including information base,
models, etc);
formulation of investment plans, using external resource in order to accelerate the
process.
Wherever appropriate, the Consultant will promote the concept of integrated investment
programs at basin or sub-basin level rather than isolated investment projects. Indeed,
optimal combination of physical investments, within an approach of shared benefits, could be
a solution to overcome international disagreements on isolated projects.
1
Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 4
Study on Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA)
INCEPTION REPORT/ TWRM SECTION
Important concepts here are the concepts of “water stress” and “water scarcity”. Water stress
and water scarcity occur when the demand for water exceeds the available amount during a
certain period or when poor quality restricts its use. It is commonly considered that a country
or region is said to experience "water stress" when annual water supplies drop below 1,700
cubic meters per person per year, At levels between 1,700 and 1,000 cubic meters per
person per year, periodic or limited water shortages can be expected. When water supplies
drop below 1,000 cubic meters per person per year, the country or region faces severe
"water scarcity". Water stress can be assessed using indicators such as the Criticality Ratio
(CR) defined by Alcamo, Döll, Kaspar, & Siebert (1997), which is “the ratio of water use to
water availability in a watershed or country”. They estimated the distribution of water use and
availability on a global scale and showed with scenarios how this might affect the water
supply of humans around the globe until the year 2075. This and subsequent studies will be
used for analyzing the sensitivity of the selected basins to identify which are the most likely to
suffer from increasing water stress and water scarcity. Information and knowledge on this
matter is also available at UNESCO, UNEP, and FAO.
The analysis will allow at the end - and in an iterative process - to define for each basin
realistic development targets, mainly in terms of irrigation expansion and hydropower
generation, which have to take into account the environmental constraints. For the targets
defined, it will be possible to simulate future water demands, which will remain compatible
with the concept of “reasonable use” of the available resources. For proposed infrastructures
(pipeline “hard” projects), the Consultant will roughly evaluate (not in details because this
would need much more sophisticated modeling tools)) the degree of potential transboundary
impacts based on a set of criteria such as the ratio between the volume of the reservoir and
the discharge of the River, the location within the River system (upstream, downstream,
mainstream, tributaries). The analytical framework will also :
allow the analysis of potential conflicts between water uses/sectors
assess the trade-off relationship between competing sectors and between upstream and
downstream users
determine the economic value of cooperation in planning and managing transboundary
infrastructures
provide updates of infrastructure performances.
Led Consortium 15
Study on Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA)
INCEPTION REPORT/ TWRM SECTION
Modelling tools will be developed to make the projections of future water requirements (both
consumptive and non-consumptive uses). For agricultural water use, the Consultant will use
the CROPWAT model, developed by the FAO. Future domestic and industrial water supply
needs will be estimated on the basis of the population and GDP projections provided by the
horizontal team and on assumptions proposed for the per capita consumption ratios. These
assumptions will be discussed during the methodology validation workshop.
The study will require a large amount of data and documents relating to (non-exhaustive list):
Basic data on each selected basin (hydrography, hydrology, climate, irrigation potential,
existing infrastructure, major cities, etc.);
Socio-economic data on population (urban and rural), economic activities, urban
development, industry, etc;
Policy and strategy documents;
Legal documents (cooperation framework agreements);
Investment/development plans at continental, regional, basin, and national levels;
Master plans, feasibility studies, project information;
Impact assessment studies of projects and programs.
The data collection process will be crucial, especially in relation to cooperation and reaction
times of the stakeholders in preparing and forwarding these data. The AfDB has sent official
letters of introduction to the RECs and L/RBOs, requesting their collaboration in making such
documents available to the study team. To facilitate this process, all RECs and L/RBOs will
be visited at an early stage and a questionnaire/list of required documents will be sent before
the visit.
The table below presents the types of documents and data required and the respective data
sources.
Types of documents and data needed Possible data sources (not exhaustive)
Continental and regional policy and strategy documents. AfDB, WB, AMCOW, AUC, NEPAD, ICA,
UNECA, RECs
Studies on Africa’s water resources and water needs, UNECA, FAO (AQUASTAT), IWMI
irrigation potentials, hydropower generation, navigation, (Challenge Programme), IFPRI, ICOLD,
water supply and sanitation, environment, etc. Aqua-Media Intl., International Hydropower
Association IHA
Global data on water resources and water scarcity maps Internet search and contacts with UNEP,
(per country and per basin). UNESCO, World Resources Institute (WRI),
Research Institutes
Macro-economic reports and data on population (urban Provided by the horizontal team.
and rural), economic activities, urban development,
industry, economic indicators; etc.
Basin policies and strategies, basin development plans, Contacts with the selected L/RBOs,
master plans, and investment opportunity studies; including OSS and CEDARE.
L/RBO’s institutional setup (status and organization), Contacts with ANBO ,CAPNET, GWP.
legal frameworks;
Own consultants network.
Lists of ongoing and planned projects and programs;
Basin wide studies on irrigation potential, hydropower
potential, navigation, etc.
Scoping studies, pre-feasibility and feasibility studies.
Relevant Consultants reports.
Donor policies and lists of ongoing and pipeline projects Contacts with AWF, AfDB, WB, EC, Other
and programs. Development Banks and donors.
National water policy and strategy documents (including Mainly through internet search
poverty reduction and development strategy).
WSS statistics per country on access, financial Mainly the WB AICD database.
indicators, pricing, water production, water consumption,
water availability par capita per year, etc.
National irrigation sector reviews, urban water supply Mainly through internet search.
sector review, sanitation sector review, irrigation
investment needs, etc.
GIS data (shapefiles) on topography, basin limits, Public domain global data sets (ArcGIS
hydrography, hydrology, climate, main towns, landuse. shapefiles):
Transboundary freshwater dispute
database (Oregon State University)
Hydrosheds and Hydro 1K from USGS
GRID Database
Global runoff data center GRDC
(Koblenz) including hydrological
datasets of 7000 stations worldwide ;
Global Lakes and Wetlands Database
GLWD, from WWF : see website.
AICD shapefiles on roads, cities, country
boundaries, topography, transmission
networks.
Databases on existing and planned dams and on FAO database on hydropower dams, AICD
existing and potential irrigated areas. database, datasets of ICOLD, Aqua-Media
Intl.,datasets of IHA.
Contacts with FAO and AQUASTAT
Database
Powerpoint presentations on programs and projects Internet search.
(AWF, AICD WB).
Prior to the field visits, questionnaires will be sent to each L/RBOs to request the data and
documents according to the checklist given below.
As requested by the ToR, the Consultant has considered carefully the extent to which the
data and models which have already been collected and developed by the AICD team can
be utilized to establish the outlook for the future.
Concerning the water sector, AICD has collected data from 2 sources : national data and
data provided by utilities. While there are useful data at national level, the AICD database is
very poor in terms of TWR, as this was not the purpose of the project. Nevertheless, the
following data are of interest for the PIDA TWRM study:
WSS statistics per country on access, financial indicators, pricing, water production, water
consumption, water availability par capita per year, etc.;
Irrigation, urban water supply, and sanitation sector reviews;
Irrigation spending needs;
Country reports for 11 countries (but with limited data on water);
A presentation on tings journalists need to know about Africa’s Water Sector (synthetic
figures on water resources and WSS issues);
Interaction with stakeholders is of utmost importance. The four Sector Leaders and the
Programme Manager visited the AICD World Bank project during the week of 10 to 14 Mai
2010. During this mission, a meeting has also been held at IFPRI. Official letters of
introduction have been sent mid June 2010 by the AfDB to the key stakeholders. A meeting
has been programmed with the African Network of River Basin Organizations (ANBO) on 1
July 2010. The AMCOW Secretariat, RECs involved in TWR and L/RBOs will be visited in
the period July-September, depending mainly on their availability. More details on the dates
cannot be provided at this stage. Several informal contacts have already started during the
inception phase. Other key stakeholders which will be contacted informally include the FAO,
IFAD, IWMI, UNEP, ICOLD, IHA, GWP, EC, Donors, Research Centres, Consultants, etc.
The figure hereafter presents the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) of Phase I and Phase II.
The kick-off meeting will establish a vision and macro framework to inform the Consultant’s
assumptions and projections.
The tasks of Phase I are:
Data collection and development of the analytical tools;
Review and situation analysis (diagnosis) of policies, strategies, institutions, regulatory
frameworks, and existing and planned infrastructures (hard and soft);
Establishment of an outlook for the future and identification of choices and challenges
(setting objectives and targets);
Preparation of an outline program for the development of regional and continental physical
infrastructures.
Phase I will lead to the production of Phase I Report.
4.2.1 Task 1.1: Data collection and development of the analytical tools
The data needs and data collection strategy has been described in section 3. During the
inception phase, the Consultant has already established contacts with a number of
stakeholders in order to identify the nature and scope of existing information sources.
Extensive data collection has also started with the screening of the Consultant’s own data
resources and through the consultation of relevant websites. AfDB has provided an important
Task 1.2.1: Review of continental and regional TWRM policies, institutional and
regulatory frameworks
This review will cover the continental and regional policies implemented to date TWRM in
Africa. It will address as precisely as possible the following questions:
what is the scope of existing continental and regional policies, institutions, and regulatory
framework regarding TWRM ?
to what extent the existing policies are helping to resolve the main issues ?
to what extent have the policies been applied and the objectives been achieved ?
what are the limiting factors that impede the achievement of these objectives ?
For the analysis of policies and strategies, the Consultant will refer to the approach described
in the general part of the Inception Report and will consider two distinct levels of analysis:
analysis of the level of achievement of policy objectives;
causal analysis: reasons and factors (constraints) which limited the level of achievement
of the policy objectives.
A key factor for success of a regional policy or strategy is the consistency between regional
and national levels, the sense of ownership of the member states and their level of
participation in the policy and strategy formulation.
AMCOW provides political leadership, policy direction and advocacy in the provision, use
and management of water resources for sustainable social and economic development and
maintenance of African ecosystems. The TWRM issue is gaining more and more political
attention. There are a number of key declarations such as the Abuja Ministerial Declaration
(2002) on Water; the Sirte Declaration (2004) on the challenges of implementing integrated
and sustainable development on agriculture and water in Africa; the Declaration of
Johannesburg (2007) on water for development and the fight against poverty; the Ministerial
Declaration ending the First African Water Week (2008) that focused on “Accelerating Water
Security for socio-economic development of Africa” and the Heads of State Sharm El-Sheikh
Commitments for Accelerating the Achievement of Water and Sanitation Goals in Africa
(2008). These declarations create awareness, symbolize political commitment and aim at
ensuring an enabling regulatory and institutional framework in the management of water
resources.
The Consultant will first identify, collect and review the existing African wide policy
documents relating to TWRM. The main entry point will be AMCOW and the African Water
Vision 2025. Other policy documents may relate to institutions, infrastructures, environment
protection or knowledge management.
Africa has 60 international rivers, covering 80% of Africa’s freshwater resources. But only a
handful of these rivers have strong co-operative arrangements. And only a few have real
responsibility for joint development of common resources. These organizations are often
constrained by some or all of the following:
Absence of clearly defined mandate to act on behalf of the riparian countries;
Technical and managerial weaknesses at the level of the secretariat of the basin
organization;
Inadequate funding by member States of the basin;
Inability to mobilize external funds for pre-investment studies and for investment;
Political selection of key personnel.
According to the AU’s guidelines for establishing a cooperative framework agreement for the
integrated management of transboundary basins (2007), the factors that determine the
performance and effectiveness of these basin organizations include:
the political commitment of the riparian states;
the focus on socio-economic development;
the focus and technical precision of their objectives;
the number of states in the basin;
the support from external agencies;
the emphasis placed on the processes involved in the development of infrastructure
beyond mere planning.
The Consultant will also refer to the key performance indicators of River Basin Organizations
developed by B.P. Hooper (USGS, 2006) and make recommendations for further
developments/improvements.
As a starting point for legal cooperation agreements, L/RBOs often refer to the UN
Convention on the Non-Navigational Uses of Intl Water Courses (1997). Among various
doctrines, the Theory of Community of Interest or Doctrine of Limited Territorial Sovereignty
is now widely accepted. The main principles of cooperation are sustainable development,
subsidiarity, equitable and reasonable utilization, and prevention of significant harms to other
riparian States. Cooperation on the basis of equity and reasonable use is needed to advance
transboundary regulation of rivers against floods and droughts, groundwater management
and protecting watersheds and wetlands. Cooperation, coupled with transboundary benefit
sharing, may allow countries to leverage the productive potential of their shared rivers, lakes
and aquifers, including locating economic activities where they are most efficient.
The Consultant will update this assessment and consider also the situation in other river
basins. The Consultant will focus on their mandate, their governance arrangements, their
policies and corporate strategies, and their legal frameworks. One important issue to
consider the compatibility between joint basin development plans and national plans., based
on effective involvement of the riparian countries in the joint planning process. The regulatory
3
NEPAD and AfDB, March 2005: NEPAD Short-Term Action Plan for Transboundary Water
Resources. Framework for Implementation. Main Report.
Some RECs are not really active in the sector of TWRM. SADC, IGAD and ECCAS, were for
example the only RECs to provide data on water projects during the second NEPAD STAP
review in 2004.
The roles of RECs in TWRM varies. One may consider three types of involvement:
a. The SADC example: SADC has a protocol for shared water resources and is proactive in
the creation of RBOs;
b. The case where the REC can play a political role to strengthen cooperation between
riparian countries of a river basin, or between two river basin organizations (example: the
possibility of transferring of water between the Congo basin and Lake Chad is being
addressed by ECCAS );
c. The Nile basin example, where RECs are not very much involved (except for Lake
Victoria).
The Consultant will contact all RECs and request for the existing policy and strategy
documents, master plans and project information relating to TWRM. The Consultant will then
review the existing regional plans relating to shared water resources such as the revised
SADC protocol (1998) on Shared Water Resources and Management of Transboundary
Waters, the ECOWAS Permanent Framework for Co-ordination and Monitoring of Integrated
Water Resources Management (2004), the ECOWAS Action Plan for integrated Water
Resources Management in West Africa.
Reporting
The review will include the drafting on a report on continental and regional policies, which will
be part of Phase I Report.
Task 1.2.2: Review of existing and planned regional TWRM infrastructure (“hard and
soft”)
During this second part of the review, the consultant will analyze existing regional
infrastructure, those under implementation and those that are in the pipeline. The term
“infrastructure” is understood in the broad sense as it covers both “hard” and “soft”
investments such as described in Section 2.
4
created in July 2002 in Dakar, Senegal to promote IWRM in African river basins as a basis
for sustainable socio-economic development and regional integration. ANBO is a technical
advisory body of AMCOW on transboundary water management.
This review is closely related to the review of institutions, which is part of Task 1.2.1. The
review will focus on:
For each selected L/RBO, the existing development planning and implementation
capacities, including the operational modelling tools and Decision Support Systems;
The existing IWRM plans and investment programs;
Physical infrastructures:
major dams used for hydropower generation (in cooperation with the Energy Sector
Study), irrigation, water supply, and flood control;
major irrigation schemes or irrigated areas;
major inter-basin water diversion projects;
inter-basin water diversion projects;
major lake and river transport infrastructure (in cooperation with the Transport Sector
Team)
Not all hydraulic infrastructures have significant transboundary hydrological implications. The
existing infrastructures analyzed will be chosen so as to respond in the best possible way to
the objectives of the proposed analysis, based in particular on the following criteria:
the potential of the concerned infrastructure to serve as a regional multipurpose water
source with relevance to the development prospects mentioned above;
the representativeness of such infrastructure for the analysis of factors of inefficiency and,
consequently, the formulation of corrective measures.
For the chosen (“hard” and “soft”) infrastructures, the Consultant will:
An inventory and review of the main regional projects and programs under implementation
and preparation will be undertaken. As listed in the ToR, there are also more and more
initiatives taking place in the Water Sector. These include for the TIGER Initiative (2020), the
African Water Vision for Water, Life and Environment in the 21st Century, the Rural Water
Supply and Sanitation Initiative in Africa (2005), the African Water Facility (2004), the UN
Water African Forum, the EU Water Initiative (2002) and several other sub-regional initiatives
and programs such as the Nile Basin Initiative launched in 1999.
The review will give a particular attention to the NEPAD STAP projects and the projects
funded by the AWF. This review will include a more detailed analysis of a set of projects and
programs.
Several L/RBO’s have already developed a pipeline of 'bankable' interventions. The review
will include for each of the selected L/RBOs:
existing strategies and action plans such as the Niger Action Plan, adopted at Heads of
States level and which includes major storage infrastructure components; or the IWRM
Congo Basin Strategic Action Plan;
enabling environment projects or capacity development projects for increased regional
cooperation (including AWF regional projects and STAP projects);
major dams, diversions and irrigation schemes under implementation and/or preparation;
regional programs relating to water pollution;
The Consultant will develop a projects database with the collected information. The database
will be developed with the data provided by the Client, the stakeholders and the data from
the consultant’s own investigations. The Consultant will prepare a ‘project sheet’ for each of
the projects, using a format that will be agreed upon with the Client during the discussion of
the work plan presented in the proposal. A sample format has already been proposed by the
Client in Annex III of the specific TOR. The Consultant will comment and review this
proposed format and agree with the Client on the definitive format to be used. The consultant
will submit the project sheets in an electronic medium and in the form of an Excel and/or
Access file, to be agreed with the Client. The consultant will also provide a project brief along
with the sheets, to be included in the Phase I Report, which will indicate the sources of
information and specify, as appropriate, the items of information; The project brief will also
summarize the situation of all of these projects (costs, nature, regions, status, etc.).
The objective of this analysis will be to highlight the level of efficiency of implementation of
regional infrastructure, strategies, and programs and the nature of limiting factors. The
analysis5 will cover, among others:
the possible gaps between budgets and initial and present schedules;
the factors causing such gaps;
the conditions of coordination and decision-making on the key parameters of these
projects (technical structure, planning, budget, role of various stakeholders in
implementation);
any other factor that impacted the efficiency of the process of preparation and/or
implementation of the infrastructure concerned.
This task will thus help learn lessons from the conditions of preparation and implementation
of the projects considered. For the execution of this task, the Consultant will consult works
conducted on the NEPAD STAP and the evaluations of its implementation, as well as other
ongoing studies mentioned in Annex II of the ToR. The set of projects will be agreed upon
between the Consultant and the Client and should prioritize a minimum of five projects
including at least some projects retained as flagship projects in the STAP that are under
preparation or implementation.
Reporting
The review will include the drafting on a report on existing and planned infrastructure,
projects and programs, which will be part of Phase I Report.
4.2.3 Task 1.3: Establishment of an outlook for the future and identification of
choices challenges
Objective
The objective of this task is first to establish the outlook for the future relating to water needs
and resulting investment needs (hard and soft) in the TWR sector. The second objective is to
assess the challenges that the regions (basins) and the continent will have to face in this
sector. This will serve as a basis for the formulation of realistic long-term objectives, to be
targeted by policies and programs at the continental level in order to anchor infrastructure
development into regional integration and trade cooperation in Africa.
The establishment of the outlook for the future will take place in two stages. First, the
consultant will develop the parameters and assumptions for the projections, and produce a
methodological brief for discussion at a joint validation workshop. After validation of the
assumptions and methodology, the Consultant will proceed to the establishment of the
outlook for the future.
5
In view of the resources available for the PIDA TWRM study, this will not be a full
evaluation in the sense generally used for project and program evaluation.
Definition of Assumptions
The Consultant will be particularly cautious in preparing the assumptions for the
establishment of the outlook for the development of regional infrastructure, as well as the
methodology to be used. The definition of assumptions on population growth and GDP
increases are discussed in the general part of the Inception Report and will be achieved by
the horizontal team. These assumptions are essential, as they will serve as a basis for the
estimation of future water needs and the resulting investment needs.
Methodological brief
The TWR team will contribute to the production of the methodological brief such as described
in the general section of the Inception Report. The first part of the brief will be produced by
the horizontal team and will provide a methodology for macro economic outlook over the
period 2010-2040. The second part will define and justify the methodology proposed for
projecting the demand for services in each sector on the basis of the macro economic
framework. In the case of the TWR Sector this will mainly be the demand for water for the
various uses.
As stated in the ToR, the consultant ’s methodological brief will analyze the following points:
a. Factors,which may influence the trends of regional infrastructure development by 2040,
including:
Endogenous factors such as development visions and paths of different parts of the
continent, the demand centres associated with the population increases, urbanization and
the socio-economic development based on the exploitation of natural resources and
regional integration;
Exogenous factors such as emanating from the international discourse on environmental
management, international agreements on water resources management, climate change
and variable weather patterns.
b. Quantified assumptions and parameters through which the results of the analysis of the
aforementioned factors can be reflected.
c. The Consultant will propose and justify his proposed forecast methodology and tools
developed for establishing the outlook for the future.
To establish the outlook for the future in terms of water needs, two approaches will be
adopted: a demand-driven approach and a supply-driven approach.
Demand-driven approach
In the demand-driven approach, the consultant will analyze the possible options for water
sources taking into account the demand scenarios based on simulated growth in the various
sectors directly depending on available water resources. The water sector relates strongly to
other sectors due to the central role of water resources in socio-economic development. The
different sectors of industry, agriculture, domestic use, energy, navigation, transport, and
environment are consequently considered as demand drivers.
To assess future food demands, the Consultant will mainly refer to the FAO report “Demand
for products of irrigated agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa”, published in 20066. This report
constitutes a sound basis for analysing the demand for irrigation development.
The outlook for energy demands will be provided by the Energy Sector Team.
Supply-driven approach: estimating the development potential
In the supply-driven approach, the efforts will be put on the analysis of the development
potentials in the selected basins. The Consultant’s approach will be to identify realistic
development targets in each basin and to derive from there the needs for water resources
mobilization.
FAO is currently compiling the irrigation potential for all African countries and river basins
(AQUASTAT). While nearly 40% of the world’s agricultural production (60 % of world’s
cereal production) already comes from irrigated land, the figure in SSA is only 10%. At
present, approximately 12 million hectares of land in Africa benefit from irrigation (as
compared to over 250 million ha for the world), which is only about 20 % of the estimated
potential. Insufficient water storage, low irrigation efficiencies at farmer’s level, and poorly
managed irrigation water distribution systems create major hydraulic vulnerabilities.
The irrigation potential in the selected basins are estimated as follows (FAO).
These data are indicative and will be updated during the first phase of the sector study,
taking into account climate change on the one hand and possible improvements of water use
efficiency on the other hand. The irrigation potential will also be very dependent on the
agreed definition of “reasonable use” of the river potential. This concept is normally a part of
the international conventions negotiated between the riparian countries sharing and
international River system.
Besides the need to increase irrigated areas, the increase of irrigation efficiency (FAO slogan
of “more crop per drop’) and water productivity (food production per cubic meter of water) is
of utmost importance. FAO's International Action Program on Water and Sustainable
Agricultural Development puts emphasis on increasing water use efficiency through
modernization and improvement of existing irrigation schemes and rehabilitation of
waterlogged and salinized irrigated lands. The IPTRID Program, a program initiated by The
6
This report is part of a series of reports produced for a Collaborative Program on Investment in Agricultural
Water Management for Poverty Reduction and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa carried out jointly by the
WB, AfDB, IFAD, and IWMI.
Validation workshop
A joint validation workshop, covering all sectors, will be organized by the Client and the
Consultant, and will bring together stakeholders (especially the RECs , L/RBOs and AU
specialized institutions/Sector Organizations) and resource persons (‘external experts’). The
purpose of the workshop will be to discuss the methodological brief, and validate the
assumptions and parameters proposed to guide the final projections. The methodological
brief will be delivered one week before the workshop.
After the validation workshop, the Consultant will finalize his projections for the Phase I
Report. Using the models and tools described in the methodological brief and on the basis of
the validated assumptions and parameters (validated during the validation workshop), the
Consultant will make projections of potential regional and continental water needs (including
the demand centres, volumes required and potential sources for the required resources).
Reporting
The analysis will include the drafting on a report on the outlook for the future, which will be
part of Phase I Report.
Task 1.3.2: Analysis of choices and challenges – defining objectives and targets
The purpose of this task is to identify the key challenges that the region and the continent will
have to face in the TWR sector and to propose a number of clear strategic objectives for the
PIDA TWRM investment program.
Several key issues and challenges have already been identified by the African Water Vision
2025. In addition to these key issues, there are a number of compounding issues that also
have a significant impact on water resources in Africa. All these challenges and issues,
which are not repeated here, will be considered and prioritized. At this stage, the following
challenges or groups of challenges appear to be particularly relevant for the PIDA TWRM
investment strategy and program:
Multiplicity of transboundary water basins (60) and weak regional cooperation. This will
probably need the creation of new L/RBOs and the strengthening of existing ones. Their
role in investment planning, promotion, and coordination will need to be strengthened;
Growing water scarcity, high spatial and temporal variability of rainfall and impact of
climate change; lack of water security, and great vulnerability to floods and droughts. This
will need investments to increase storage capacity and develop water diversions (supply
policy) as well as to increase water use efficiency (demand policy);
Growing environmental degradation; contamination of major shared water resources;
Availabilityof human resources and capacity, inadequate information and knowledge base
and planning capacities, and unreliable monitoring and evaluation systems.
From the analysis of priority challenges, the Consultant will propose a number of realistic
objectives that African decision makers could set for their long-term regional and continental
infrastructure development policies in the TWR sector. In so doing the Consultant will
formulate realistic assumptions on the level of resources that could be available for
supporting the development of physical assets in the sector. These objectives will be
established on the basis of relevant indicators that reflect the outlook for the future and
challenges identified in the preceding analysis.
The PIDA TWRM investment program will contribute to eradicate poverty and achieve the
Millennium Development Goals in Africa. The consultant will propose objectives which are
also in line with the challenges addressed by the Africa Water Vision 2025 and by the African
Water Facility.
At this stage, possible specific objectives of the PIDA TWRM investment program could be
listed as follows:
to enhance regional cooperation by deploying the principles of Integrated Water Resource
Management (IWRM) particularly for shared water resources through the L/RBOs and
regional water protocols;
to increase in a “secure” and “equitable” manner the availability of water resources for
hydropower production, irrigated agriculture, domestic and industrial water supply,
navigation, fisheries and protection of ecosystems;
to help African countries adapting to and mitigating climate change impacts and variability
in weather patterns;
to help African countries to protect their environment and ecosystems in the spirit of
IWRM;
to help African countries to mitigate the social impacts of large infrastructures while
sharing the benefits with the people who are directly concerned.
In a “secure manner” means that the program should ensure water security to meet future
increases in demand for water and enable the socio-economic development of the regions of
the African continent.
In an “equitable manner” means that the program should enable the equitable allocation of
water resources among competing water uses for sustainable development. It also implies
an equitable sharing of benefits arising from the shared basin resources. The most
appropriate form of return and benefit sharing with the impacted population should also be
part of the projects.
The regional infrastructure development program should aim at providing water for the
irrigation of several millions of hectares. This would require storage and distribution of billions
of cubic meters of water. But this would also require multi-lateral and bilateral agreements
Reporting
The analysis will include the drafting on a report on the choices and challenges, which will be
part of Phase I Report.
From the review of regional and continental infrastructure and the formulation of the outlook
for the future, the Consultant will draft a preliminary outline infrastructure development
program for the development and management of transboundary water resources to the
2040 horizon. However this can only be very indicative at this stage since the outcome of the
review of the existing situation and the proposed objectives have not yet been discussed with
the stakeholders.
The task will include three steps:
A good starting point for the proposed strategic framework could be the existing structure of
the AWF Operation Strategy and which are also the four pillars of the AWV 2025:
Strengthening water governance
The outline will identify relevant implementation stakeholders. It will also provide a first
approximative cost quantification as well as estimated deadlines.
The outline will also indicate specific choice and decision-making issues, in particular
regarding projects for which bankability is uncertain.
Reporting
This task will include the drafting on a report on the proposed outline program, which will be
part of Phase I Report.
The Consultant will integrate the various reports produced by the TWRM team members on
their respective tasks relating to the review and analysis of policies, institutions, legal
frameworks, existing and planned projects, on the outlook for the future, on the choices and
challenges, and on the preliminary outline program.
The TWRM Phase I Report will be integrated with the three other sector reports to constitute
the Phase I Report.
4.3.1 Task 2.1: Preparation and holding of a Strategic TWR Sector workshop
A core component of Phase II will be the holding of a Strategic TWR Sector workshop
involving all key stakeholders. The workshop will be the venue for consulting with
stakeholders at the political (decision making), technical and operational level on the findings
of Phase 1 (needs, targets), and define a strategy to be later articulated in programs and
projects. The workshop will focus on:
The development of the overarching principles which should guide policy orientations and
decisions on regional integration;
Agreement with the stakeholders on the major challenges to be considered for the
development of regional and continental infrastructure, based on the challenges identified
in Phase I;
Agreement with the stakeholders on the strategic objectives and orientations based on the
objectives identified in Phase I. This includes the policies to be implemented at the
regional and continental levels to meet the challenges.
In close collaboration with the Client, the consultant will agree on the organizations to be
invited to the workshop, including at least the RECs, AMCOW, and L/RBOs. But there may
also be a need to consult with other stakeholders at a continental level, such as the NEPAD
Head of States and Government Implementation Committee. The consultant will also advise
the Client on measures and programs most efficiently addressed at continental level.
In close collaboration with the Client, the consultant will prepare briefs to contribute to the
workshop discussions. Such briefs, prepared on the basis of the Phase I Report, will include
summaries of:
The conclusions of reviews of regional policies and the implementation of infrastructure
development programs;
The conclusions of projections of needs in regional transboundary water resources
infrastructure and associated services, and an analysis of coherence with sector policies
and economic guidelines;
A set of recommendations aimed at strengthening regional and continental policies on
transboundary water resources infrastructure and associated services;
The challenges and issues that should be addressed in the strategic framework for
transboundary water resources, both to prioritise projects and programs, and to ensure
successful implementation;
Programme outline.
The TWR Sector team will assist the horizontal team in the preparation and facilitation of the
validation workshop. More details on this task is provided in the general part of the Inception
Report.
After the workshop, the consultant will draft a workshop report and the workshop
proceedings highlighting:
the guidelines formulated by participants on the strategic framework /sector policies,
infrastructure development program, and implementation strategy and processes;
the agreed appropriate levels at which the measures and initiatives should be undertaken:
continental or regional;
the interfaces between the regional and continental levels on which to undertake these
measures and initiatives
issues on which participants could not reach a consensus;
additional analyses brought forward and necessary for the consolidation of results.
Reports on the sector workshops will be delivered to the Client within 1 week of the
workshop being completed.
Assist the Client to address issues on which agreement was not reached during the
workshop;
Review and if necessary reformulate the strategic objectives and sector policies taking
into account the outcome of the workshop;
Finalize a preliminary draft of an African TWRM Strategic Framework (including sector
policies) on the basis of the guidelines formulated by the workshops and further analyses
as necessary;
Outline the measures and other propositions where a consensus was not reached.
The output of this task will form part of the Phase II Report.
The preliminary draft infrastructure development program will consist of a pipeline of regional
projects and programs, composed of a balanced combination of hard and soft
interventions/studies over the short, medium, and long-term horizons that is consistent with
the strategic framework and sector policies. It will include:
a prioritized list of regional projects (soft and hard) with cost estimations and timing,
recommended implementation and operating arrangements over the three time horizons
(2020, 2030, and 2040);
a proposed first Priority Action Plan (PAP) including:
projects and programs ready to go, for which the feasibility has been completed
positively, the EIA and mitigation plans available, and the social and institutional aspects
dealt with;
newly identified short-term projects (mainly soft projects to build institutional capacity and
prepare the next PAP and possibly ICT programs)
The projects and programs will involve the extension or improvement of existing
infrastructure, the construction of new infrastructure, and the strengthening of the enabling
environment.
The projects and programs will be prioritized in relation to the objectives that they are
expected to help achieve. There will also be preliminary assessments to determine the
relative importance of the expected project impacts and highlight possible conflicting
objectives. Prioritization of projects is essential, as it will help to focus efforts on a realistic
core of projects, and to build consensus among the stakeholders (including financing
partners) around that core. Prioritization criteria will be proposed and progressively refined by
the Consultant based on thorough discussions with program sponsors, RECs, L/RBOs, and
other stakeholders. Ultimately the program sponsors will agree them.
The preliminary draft infrastructure development program will include options and their
rationale as may be necessary. The program will stem from the strategic framework
(including sector policies) and particularly:
the establishment of the outlook for the future, and the identification of strategic objectives
and policies for the sector;
the strategic guidelines and criteria formulated during the workshops, especially for the
prioritization of projects and programs.
Technical and political processes need to go hand in hand in arriving at agreement on a set
of prioritized TWRM projects, based on sound technical and consensus-based proposals.
The Consultant will prepare a preliminary draft of “implementation strategy and processes”,
based on the analysis of the potential barriers to implementation. Successful implementation
of the infrastructure development program will depend on building a consensus among all
stakeholders around a realistic platform of measures and projects. The implementation
strategy and processes will involve the development of priority measures, resources and
tools to support the successful implementation of PIDA, including:
a. Priority actions to be undertaken in the period 2010-2020 in terms of both physical
investments and associated measures required to secure successful implementation (e.g.
policy, institutional, regulatory, financial, legal). This set of actions shall form the Priority
Action Plan, which will replace the NEPAD STAP, and will be designed in a form to be a
roll-over action plan.
b. Respective roles of regional and continental entities and institutions in the implementation
of the Priority Action Plan, and more generally in the preparation and implementation of
further investment programs as well as in the elaboration and application of regional and
continental policies. The study will review all institutional arrangements that affect the
development and delivery of infrastructure services at the regional and continental levels,
and will make recommendations on how they could be modified to improve infrastructure
services. The recommendations will draw on the causal analysis undertaken in Phase I.
c. How the regional and continental policies, entities and institutions could contribute to
resolving the issue of financing proposed investments and their sustainability, covering
both construction and operation and maintenance of the infrastructure.
d. Mobilizing regional and external financing and private sector participation. The study will
address the mobilization of funding within the region, and from development partners and
the private sector. The existing situation will be evaluated, and projections made of the
likely financial resource envelopes for regional infrastructure projects, based on an
analysis of past trends and other relevant factors. We will produce scenarios of future
financial resources within which development projects and programs can be prioritized.
These projections will be based on realistic assumptions, and, as far as possible,
innovative ways of finding solutions to these recurrent issues. We will propose measures
likely to help mobilize private sector participation in infrastructure, and strengthen
cooperation with international development partners.
e. Civil society participation in the preparation and implementation of proposed measures in
terms of policies as well as physical investments. In this context, we will propose
communication and dissemination measures that regional and continental entities and
institutions shall undertake in order to enhance civil society participation.
f. Defining an implementation and monitoring process: This involves proposing to
stakeholders, the mechanisms and tools to:
review and update over time the strategic framework and infrastructure development
program;
actively manage the roll-over Priority Action Plan.
With respect to the action plan, this will mainly consist of knowing how to initiate and
complete an action, as well as how to monitor the progress of the action. This process will
include:
a. Capacity building: The formulation of recommendations for the institutional capacity
building of continental and regional entities responsible for monitoring, coordinating and
managing the implementation of the agreed measures and actions (while implementation
of the recommendations will be the direct responsibility of the entities concerned, and will
be carried out outside this study).
b. Monitoring mechanism. Starting from the work already done to design the NEPAD Project
Management System (NPMS), and the upgrading of this system under MLTSF, we will
assess the adequacy of the present data base as an effective monitoring mechanism, and
formulate observations, comments and recommendations on its upgrading to the extent
that this is assessed to be necessary. The final design and implementation of any
improved monitoring mechanism will be carried out separately from this study.
The output of this task will form part of the Phase II Report.
The Consultant will integrate the various reports produced by the team members on their
respective tasks relating to the preliminary strategic framework, the preliminary investment
program, and the preliminary implementation strategy and processes.
The TWRM Phase II Report will be integrated with the three other sector reports to constitute
the Phase II Report.
A team of seven experts has been mobilized for the study, with a total input of 33
manmonths. The team has the full range of expertise required:
IntegratedWater Resources Management and Integrated River Basin
Management;
Hydropower;
Irrigation;
Hydrology;
The consultant will have due regard to cross-sectoral linkages and synergies.
Hydropower development will be related to the energy sector-specific study. Inland
waterways and lake transport will be related to the transport sector study.
For both cross-sectoral linkages, close cooperation between the experts involved in
the different sector studies will be organized and managed for data sharing, joint
analysis of existing and planned projects, prioritization of projects and programs, etc.
The following table presents the indicative inputs of the various experts in each task.
Three categories of input intensities are considered: less than one week, between
one and four weeks, and more than four weeks. The total number of manmonths for
each expert is presented at the bottom of the table.
ICT SECTION
TABLE OF CONTENTS
2. OBJECTIVES, SCOPE AND EXPECTED OUTPUTS OF THE PIDA ICT STUDY ..... 7
2.1. The Study’s Objectives and scope.......................................................7
2.1.1.Objective of the study.................................................................................... 7
2.1.2.Scope and Specific Objective of the Study for ICT Sector ............................. 7
2.2. Expected outputs of the PIDA ICT Study................................................7
2.2.1.Facilitate continental and regional integration................................................ 8
2.2.2.Support the reduction of ICT cost for the consumer....................................... 8
2.2.3.Sustainable Infrastructures............................................................................ 9
4.3. Task 1.2. Review of Continental and regional policies (A1) ....................... 22
4.3.1.Objectives ................................................................................................... 22
4.3.2.Task 1.2.1 Collection of Regional Policies and regulatory frameworks ........ 22
4.3.3.Task 1.2.2 Analysis of the existing regional policies .................................... 24
4.3.4.Task 1.2.3 Analysis of regional regulation bodies and legal and regulatory
environments............................................................................................... 26
4.4. Task 1.3 Review of Regional Infrastructures (A2) ................................... 28
4.4.1.The Task’s Environment.............................................................................. 28
4.4.2.Objective of the task.................................................................................... 28
4.4.3.Task 1.3.1 Identification and Analysis of existing infrastructures ................. 30
4.4.4.Task 1.3.2 Identification of projects under implementation and preparation. 30
4.4.5.Task 1.3.3 Detailed analysis of a set of regional infrastructure projects....... 31
4.5. Task 1.4 Establishment of the outlook for the future and identification of
challenges (B) ............................................................................ 32
4.5.1.Objectives ................................................................................................... 32
4.5.2.Task 1.4.1. Establishment of an outlook for the future (B.1)......................... 32
4.5.3.Task 1.4.2 Analysis of choices and challenges (B.2) ................................... 36
4.5.4.Task 1.4.3 Preparation of an outline programme (B3) ................................. 37
4.6. Task 1.5 Phase I Report ................................................................. 38
4.6.1.Task 1.5.1: Drafting Phase I ICT sector report............................................. 38
4.6.2.Task 1.5.2: Integration of the four sector reports ......................................... 38
4.7. Phase II Formulation of a draft strategic framework, programme and
implementation strategy ............................................................... 38
4.7.1.Background ................................................................................................. 39
4.8. Task 2.1 Strategic workshops .......................................................... 40
4.8.1.Task 2.1.1 Preparation and holding of sector workshops............................. 40
4.8.2.Task 2.1.2 Preparation of briefs for strategic the workshops........................ 40
4.8.3.Task 2.1.3 Formulation of o preliminary draft Strategic framework .............. 41
4.8.4.Task 2.1.4 Formulation of a preliminary draft Infrastructure development programme
41
4.8.5.Task 2.1.5 Formulation of a preliminary implementation strategy and processes
44
4.8.6.Task 2.1.6 Phase II Report .......................................................................... 45
ICT SECTOR
1. SECTOR BACKGROUND
1.1. The Stakes
The communications sector (ICT) in Africa is in full development thanks to the introduction of
mobile phone services all over the continent.
The real future stake is the access to the internet. To this end, it is essential that the African
continent:
Develop sustainable infrastructures capable of handle the short and long term needs
Extend the supply
Reduces the cost of use by consumers
Develop an investment-friendly environment needed for the development of
infrastructures and services
The development and use of ICTs in Africa is essentially based on the mobile phone with a
multitude of parallel infrastructures (redundant in part). In fact, the different operators have
deployed « similar » infrastructures in the same places. This situation, is evidence that an
important part of the investment amounts could have been saved or better used by sharing.
Moreover, parts of these infrastructures (radio backbones) may not be viable in the mid and
long terms since they are not able to handle the broadband development.
1
BAD Perspective économique en Afrique 2009 vol2 - TIC.pdf (page 120)
The intra-African interconnection process is being completed outside Africa: (Europe, USA).
Deprived of Data Centres and INX (Internet Node Exchange), intra-continental traffic seek
the USA or Europe before going back to the African continent engendering additional cost
and using broadband for no purpose.
Until 2010, this traffic took place essentially via satellites, which provide very low-capacity
broadband and are therefore incapable of meeting the increasing demand of traffic in
addition at a very high Mbps cost. Today, particularly on the East coast, the deployment of
submarine cables (EASSy…) has helped improve the connection of the region’s countries,
which would, among other things, reduce consumer rates, and cost of connection thanks to
land backbones used in parallel.
Recent studies show that traffic to and from Africa ‘costs’ users each year between 300 and
400 million € to the benefit of ‘non-African players’. A good part of this financial windfall
leaves Africa to be consolidated on another continent.
The African Development Bank’s report on Economic Perspectives in Africa 2009 highlights
the fact that pan-European groups increasingly dominate the commercially successful GSM
operations in Africa. They place a heavy financial burden on the most fragile populations. Up
to 70% of their available monthly revenues can be spent on mobile communication without
being at the origin of its development.
Internet access, which is a major challenge for economic development in Africa, must be
addressed as is found in the latest ITU report (Information Society Statistical Profiles 2009
Africa):
“The fixed line sector remains very limited and is stagnating, which also constraints fixed
broadband deployment through ADSL, the world’s most widely deployed fixed broadband
technology. In addition, there are practically no cable networks and many countries are
facing a shortage of international Internet bandwidth. As a result, fixed broadband
penetration is low and broadband prices are beyond the reach of the majority of the
population. The large majority of countries (22 out of 32 included in the ICT Price Basket)
have fixed broadband prices that correspond to more than 100 per cent of their monthly GNI
per capita”
2.1.2. Scope and Specific Objective of the Study for ICT Sector
The sector-specific TOR set the objectives for the ICT work:
Establishing a harmonized policy, legal and regulatory frameworks at the regional and
continental levels to develop an attractive and positive market for investment and to foster
the sustainable development of ICT infrastructure in African regional markets;
Accelerating the development of integrated infrastructures that will help bridge the digital
divide, i.e. foster access to reliable and quality ICT services that will be affordable for the
greatest number of the population in Africa;
Promoting e-applications and services aimed at improving government services (e-
government), education (e-education), trade and business (e-commerce), and other social
services, and the performance of the other productive sectors of the economy;
Increasing global competitiveness of Africa by reducing the costs of services and enabling
the integration of Africa into the global economy;
Capacity building (in ICT skills) and innovation systems including centers of excellence;
Reducing or eliminating transit of intra and interregional traffic out of the continent.
« Incr easing global competitiveness of Africa by reducing the costs of ser vices »
PidaI CT Tor
The phrase « existing or being deployed continental and regional infrastructures must
be understood in both senses: hard and soft (complementary measures).
Within the framework of the PIDA Study, the Consultant’s focus and analysis are on
the transmission links, which have the greatest impact on continental and regional
integration. They may take also into consideration some components when they
interfere with smooth operations at the regional and continental levels. (example of
Websecurity).
To attain such objectives, the Consultant will prioritize the investments targeted by
the study. He will ensure that the programs are coherent over time and are
implemented in the proper sequence since the absence or failure (failure of
performance) of one link may ruin the entire project because of incoherence or
dysfunction.
It is not realistic to try to imagine what demand will be like beyond 2020 as the
services on offer, market demand and the technologies used will differ from those
existing today. It is therefore relevant to analyze what happened and what is
happening in Europe and the developing countries such as India, China. The
explosion of services and demand generated an important growth of traffic requiring
an alomost daily adjustment of infrastructure in order to meet these demands
and the quality expected by private and professional consumers.
2
Lesson learned from HIPPSA
Regional
And national
It will be an atlas of the infrastructures mobilized and identified by all the operators
and alternative players (Energy, transport and other) and would take into
consideration the short-term projects underway.
This atlas will include two additional parts related to:
The links identified as missing and necessary for the integration of all the African
countries into the global ICT world and whose development will be a priority.
A prospective vision for the development of these infrastructures over 5 and 10
years.
Additional data (physical capacity, bandwidth) will complete this atlas.
Traffic model
The objective of this model is to model traffic coming from the various ICT services to
use these infrastructures. It will help the calibration of infrastructures based on:
Current traffic, data potentially coming from data bases)
Scenarios for evolution of traffic in the medium and long terms related to:
Evolution of the number of consumers/service
Evolution of the volume by consumer
Emergence of new services
The traffic model can be based on models developed and implemented within other
programs and particularly on the e-NEPAD projects. .
It will have different sensitivity levels in order to accommodate the forecasting of high
and basic traffic in accordance with the number of service users and bandwidths
required by such services. This model will be used in a more global way in phase B2.
This type of model is similar to the tools used by National Regulation Authorities for
the management of wholesale and retail tariffs.
4.2.1. Task 1.1.1 Collecting data and state of the ICT market
A continental, regional and national data base will be initiated within the framework of
the PIDA Study . This tool will be provided to the beneficiaries of the project and will
help set up an observatory in the short and medium terms. This observatory can be
developed through a specific program.
4.2.1.1. Task 1.1.1.1 Collecting data from the ICT Institutions and
from “the market”
Geographical Level
Data will be collected at three levels:
At continental level
This analysis will highlight the situation of the African continent and will help measure
the gap to be bridged in order connect the continent to the digital world.
At regional level
The comparative analysis at regional level will help identify the best performing
regions and identify the structural developments behind the best practices as well as
the necessary structural adjustments to be made at the level of the less performing
regions in order to reach global adjustment.
At national level
The analysis of the best performing markets at the national level will help identify the
reasons of their success and suggest the adjustments necessary for the less
performing countries.
The Consultant will regularly analyze the gaps between the existing data (ITU, AICD)
which are often outdated as they are at least one year old, and data coming from the
Market that are closer to the reality.
The ITU data are consolidated with a delay of one to two years, which limits
their use
ICT “eye”
The ICT “eye” website is an ICT data base providing indicators and statistics on the
market, the profile of policies and regulators3.
NEPAD e-Africa Commission
Here the same Licence Rights issue has to be raised by the Consultant. Therefore,
the Consultant advises that discussions between the PIDA Consulting Team and the
eNEPAD have take place..
At RECs level
The collected data from RECs will be consolidated in a database with progressive
transfer of responsibility to the RECs if possible. This is part from the Consultant
proposal to provide advice on strengthening capacities.
As a matter of fact, although the task seems simple, it presents the highest risks of
impossibility for the RECs to consolidate the data if :
The actual national legal and regulatory frameworks doesn’t force the ICT actors
(operators, ISP) to provide their data to the national regulatory authorities
The NRA do not forward the data to the RECS.
In this case, The Consultant would propose solutions on adjusting the legal and
regulatory frameworks where necessary.
3
http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ICTEYE/TariffPolicies/TariffPolicies.aspx
(Abuja)
SPONSOR WIRE
Lome - Togo — ECOWAS has taken another practical step towards addressing the dearth of up-to- date and
accurate data which will reflect its current market mapping in the telecommunications-ICT sector through the official
launching of its regional data base on Tuesday, 22nd June 2010.
A demonstration of the mode of operation and mapping methods of the data base was done at the launching and
witnessed, among others, by the Togolese Minister of Posts and Telecommunications, the ECOWAS Commissioner
for Infrastructure as well as representatives of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU) and the regulatory
authorities for posts and telecommunications from ECOWAS Member States
As one of the priority projects of the ECOWAS Commission, SIGTEL will help inform and provide direction for
decision-makers within the region for their development policies on telecoms-ICT, evaluate the potentials of new
activities arising from opening up the telecoms-ICT market to competition and determine the possibilities for market
penetration by competitors. It will also help increase available knowledge of the telecoms-ICT market in West Africa,
enable regulatory authorities in the region to adapt regulations to changes in the sector as well as serve as a tool for
Member States to assess their progress towards achieving the objectives set by the ECOWAS Commission and
NEPAD for the telecoms-ICT sector.
http://allafrica.com/stories/201006240778.html
HIPPSA
Objectives
The global objective of this project is to provide harmonized ICT policies in each of the countries
involved.
Setting up and developing policies and guidelines providing for the ICT market in each of
the ACP countries;
Providing support to regional organizations and sub-regional economic blocks for the
development and promotion of using harmonized policies and regulations in the relevant
zone’s ICT market;
Institutional and capacity building in the ICT field thanks to a series of targeted measures
focused on training, education and sharing of knowledge.
Results
Build up awareness in developing countries at the highest political level of the necessity to develop a
4
http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/treg/projects/itu-ec/index-fr.html
5
http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/treg/projects/itu-ec/Ghana/modules/FinalDocuments/Model_ICT_Law_Policy-fr.pdf
6
http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/treg/projects/itu-ec/index-fr.html
knowledge-based economy;
Assist the developing countries to adapt their regulatory frameworks in order to develop, before ICT
infrastructure and applications; optimize economic and social advantages and meet national
priorities in accordance with the objectives of the CMDT-06 and the WSIS Action Plan;
Provide training in ICT policies, regulations and the use of ICT ; develop competences at the local
level in these fields
The project’s general objective is to contribute to the development of harmonized policies in the ICT
sector and the development of an efficient regulatory environment capable of attracting massive
investments including ICT infrastructures and applications needed by the countries. The HIPSSA
project’s component "Support to the harmonization of ICT policies in Sub-Saharan Africa", contains at a
large scale the objectives of the pilot project financed by the European Union and the ITU which was
implemented with success in Western Africa with the contribution of ECOWAS and the WAEMU.
The objective is to develop and promote harmonized policies and guidelines for the ICT market as well
as capacity building for both human capital and institutions thanks to the adoption of a targeted set of
measures involving training, education and sharing knowledge.
The Consultant will also attempt to identify the role and powers of the regions for:
The development of regional guidelines on the sector
the transposition of these guidelines into decrees and laws by this region’s
countries.
The EU Directives and applications and
country transposition
Authoris ation Direc tive
Gove rnm en t N RA
Tel ec om la w a nd
App li ca ti on s b y-law
ass oci ate d by-l aw s
Analyses of the SWOT type can be carried out in order to identify the strengths and
weaknesses of the regional policies on specific points.
The RECs files, completed, if required (or if possible), with country files, will
synthesize the points analyzed and/or inventory the regulation bodies and their
power on specific points.
4.3.4. Task 1.2.3 Analysis of regional regulation bodies and legal and
regulatory environments
As Regulatory bodies and other coordinate agencies are related to policies and their
efficiency, the consultants will address the subject using the same approach used in
the analysis of Regional and Continental policies explained above.
To do so, the Consultant will list the different regulatory bodies and their major
prerogatives impacting the development of infrastructures and tariffs.
This inventory will be made by REC and focus on governance, maturity and
regulatory capacity.
The Consultant will focus his analysis on:
Association of regional regulators
Regional and national regulators
Institutionsor bodies in charge of spectre management and coordinates (civil
aviation, maritime affairs, Audiovisual) with two objectives:
Spectre management and coordination of frequencies at the borders
Passage in 2020 to numeric TV
Certification bodies and authorization process
To do so, the Consultant will work with the Recs and HIPPSA on the regional
inventory and use the tools such as those developed by the ITU in e-applications.
Bottom-up approach
Bottom up study and analyse Selection of Selection of Selection of
of relevant projects relevant projects relevant projects
ICT Infrastructures projects
investment programmes
coming from bottom-up approach
PIDA Study 18 PIDA Study 17
In this task, the Consultant will concentrate his analysis on the physical situation of
the mentioned infrastructures and if possible, the state of progress for their operation
The consultants will focus essentially on:
Connecting countries to the rest of the world
Inter-connecting neighbouring countries.
The projects (Minimum 5), will be selected as:
The STAP action plan
The World Bank projects
The projects by operators or equippers
- EASSY
The assumptions must take into consideration the potential growth of a number of
subscribers per country and the “out of country” traffic (regional or continental)
generated by these consumers.
Therefore, it is essential to include 3 variables in the forecasts all of which are
variables in time
Growth rate of the number of consumers per country (high and low profiles)
Growth rate of the traffic generated by each user (high and low profiles)
Growth rate of the traffic “regional” generated by these same consumers
It is important to note that these variables taken as assumptions are closely related
for each country to the land management policies as well as the legal and regulatory
policies (regulation of prices)
Forecasting Model
In order to calibrate the hard infrastructures, the generated and expected traffic at the
various locations of the regional infrastructures, modelling is required.
Therefore, a model will be used in accordance with the assumptions and scenarios
for the calibration of the needed infrastructures taking into consideration the need to
ensure their long term viability for the depreciable parts over more than 5 or 10 years.
Within this framework, the Consultant will use a specific model, which will be
developed or adapted (from the ones developed by AICD or e-NEPAD) in order to
satisfy the expectations in terms of results. This model has been described earlier.
Risk assessment of the sector: study related to the outlook for the future
The Consultant, and Africa are facing a real challenge which is to forecasts the
‘unforecastable’: the development and use of the internet in the world and activities,
which are exceedingly greedy in terms of traffic consumption.
To minimize the risks, it is necessary to separate investments whose components
are depreciable in the short term (active elements) from structuring investments
(optical fibre), which have a life beyond 2020. If there is a high risk incurred by the
“active elements”, it would be possible to minimize considerably the structuring
investments, big consumers of capitals depreciable in the long term.
This part will complete the results of task B1 and analyze the options or choices to be
made in order to solve the constraints or risks identified in B1.
The principal factor analyzed will be:
The general macro economic framework provided by the horizontal team.
How the choices made and the identified projects can be integrated into the
regions’ policies and development/master plans and how they can improve the
objectives.
The conflicts and incompatibilities to be solved
The role of the private sector in this plan (operators…)
4.5.3.1. Task 1.4.2.1 Analysis and assessment of the outlook for the
future
After the validation of perspectives given by the outlook produced at the previous
stage, the Consultant will analyze mainly the constraints for the implementation of the
perspectives and the resulting scenarios.
In this task, the Consultant will review the different scenarios and analyze:
Their answers to expectations in terms of continental and regional integration
How they integrate into the regional policies and/or what they generate as
adjustments
Their cost according to the selected intra-project scenario
The perspectives of their growth with particular attention to long term viability (>
10 years) of the most expensive items.
The legal and regulatory environments to be developed in order to make them
economically viable.
The Consultant will also analyze
The potential impact of the regional policies on scenario developed and will try to
bring the required adjustments
Items to be set up according to the technical priority order (access to submarine
cables before having a large number of BB consumers for example).
The legal and regulatory gaps and identify the necessary structural adjustments
for the realization of objectives.
The Study will give particular attention to the landlocked countries and how they can
have access to submarine cables stations for reasonable prices.
4.5.4.1. Background
According to the TORs, on the basis of (i) the review of regional and continental
infrastructure conducted under the task A2; (ii) the formulation of the outlook for the
future conducted under task B1, the Consultant shall present an outline development
programme for ICT infrastructure and associated services in which the following shall
be highlighted:
Investment projects by status (under execution, in current pipeline, new ideas)
The preparation and holding of a strategic workshop to consult with RECs, and
other stakeholders on the Phase I findings;
The preparation of a draft final report containing the three outputs required from
the study (strategic framework, infrastructure development program,
implementation strategy and processes)
Full engagement with the RECs will be essential, as the RECs, working closely with
national governments, will be the main implementers of the final output of PIDA.
The aim of this phase is to help reach, through a sustained participatory and
consultative process, and on the basis of previous studies, a consensus on the
essential elements of a regional and continental ICT strategic framework (including
sector policies), infrastructure development program, and implementation strategy
and processes.
4.7.1. Background
As announced in the TOR, the aim of this phase is to help reach, through a sustained
participatory and consultative process,, a consensus on the essential elements of a
regional and continental ICT strategic framework (including sector policies),
infrastructure development programme, and implementation strategy and processes.
The key issues that should be addressed include:
Development of integrated infrastructures and access networks as the
cornerstone of e-access, with efficient cross-border interconnectivity to provide
increased access to ICT services for the greatest number of the African
population, including the improvement of connectivity of the African continent with
other continents;
Networks intercompatibility, and fostering convergence, interoperability,
interconnections, continental roaming and services;
Establishing a level playing field for the business/regional ICT market;
Open and non-discriminatory access;
Fostering integrated e-strategies at national, regional and international level;
Management of scarce resources, such as frequencies, numbers, rights of way;
Security and reliability;
Institutional
framework and issues of infrastructure ownership and operations and
maintenance;
The financing mechanisms and options available;
Mobilizing regional and external financing and private sector participation. The study
will address the mobilization of funding within the region, and from development
partners and the private sector.
The existing situation will be evaluated, and projections made of the likely financial
resource envelopes for regional infrastructure projects, based on an analysis of past
trends and other relevant factors.
We will produce scenarios of future financial resources within which development
projects and programs can be prioritized.
These projections will be based on realistic assumptions, and, as far as possible,
innovative ways of finding solutions to these recurrent issues. The consultants will
propose measures likely to help mobilize private sector participation in infrastructure,
and strengthen cooperation with international development partners.
Civil society participation will be encourage in the preparation and implementation of
proposed measures in terms of policies as well as physical investments. In this
context, we will propose communication and dissemination measures that regional
and continental entities and institutions may undertake in order to enhance civil
society participation.
Defining an implementation and monitoring process: This involves proposing to
stakeholders, the mechanisms and tools to:
Review and update over time the strategic framework and infrastructure
development program;
Actively manage the roll-over Priority Action Plan.
With respect to the action plan, this will mainly consist of knowing how to initiate and
complete an action, as well as how to monitor the progress of the action. This
process will include:
Capacity building:
The formulation of recommendations for the institutional capacity building of
continental and regional entities responsible for monitoring, coordinating and
managing the implementation of the agreed measures and actions (while
implementation of the recommendations will be the direct responsibility of the entities
concerned, and will be carried out outside this study).
Monitoring mechanism.
Starting from the work already done to design the NEPAD Project Management
System (NPMS), and the upgrading of this system under MLTSF, we will assess the
adequacy of the present data base as an effective monitoring mechanism, and
formulate observations, comments and recommendations on its upgrading to the
extent that this is assessed to be necessary. The final design and implementation of
any improved monitoring mechanism will be carried out separately from this study.
The output of this task will form part of the Phase II Report.
In addition to the resources of the Team, the ICT sector will call the intervention of
two cross sectoral team members:
GIS Expert
Legal Expert
ANNEXES
Led Consortium : SOFRECO –MWH – NATHAN – SOFRECOM – SYSTRA – ASCON - CABIRA 219
Study on Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA)
INCEPTION REPORT
ANNEXE 1
List of documents consulted
1 AU/NEPAD African Action Plan 2010 – 2015 – Advancing Regional and Continental Integration in Africa –
NEPAD Planning anc Coordinating Agency, Midrand South Africa- 2010 (Main and Final Technical Report)
2 The NEPAD infrastructure Medium to Term Strategic Framework (MLTSF) Study- Discussion Papers and
Reports
3 MLTSF Study Independent Assessors Report – February 2009
4 African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2010
5 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP) Main Report– May 2002 – Draft Final Ver.2
6 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan – Review of Implementation Progress Report 2003
7 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Second Review of Implementation Progress and Way Forward –
Continental Synthesis Report 2004
8 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Draft RECs -Project Implementation Status Reports 2010 (Soft
Copy in NEPAD STAP Documents CD)
9 Assessing Regional Integration in Africa IV – Enhancing Intra-African Trade, - ECA, AU, ADB Report- May
2010 - (Nara ana Soft Copy ,n CD)
10 African Development Bank (ADB) : Review of Regional Operations Draft – May 2010
14 ADB: Bank Group's Information & Communication Technologies (ICT) Operations Strategy – Revised
Version –ADF/BD/WP/2008/74/Rev.1 03 October 2008 – Soft Copy
15 Policy for Integrated Water Resources
22 IDA 15 Mid Term Review of the IDA Regional Programme (CFPIR) October 2009
27 GIS Data for Urban maps showing GDP spikes: - A iailable from "G Econ Nordhaus Yale" site
28b •Paying the Price of Unreliable Power. Supplies: In-House Generation of Electricity by Firms: Vivien Foster
& Jergenijs Stinbuks, Janauary 2008
28c •Electricity Reforms in Mali: A Macro – Micro Analysis of the Effects on Poverty and Distribution; Dorothee
Bacaufuso, Antonio Estache and Luc Savard, April 2008
28d •Electricity Reforms in Senegal: A Mac-o – Micro Analysis of the Effects on Poverty and Distribution;
Dorothee Bacaufw o, Antonio Estache and Luc Savard, April 2008
28p •The Impact of Infrastructure Spending in Sub Saharan Africa: A CGE ModelingApproach; Jean Francois
Perrault, Luc Savard and Antonio Estache – February 2008
28q •Water Reforms in Senegal: A Regional and Interpersonal Distribution Impact Analysis
28r •Crop productivity and road connectivity in Sub Saharan Africa: A spatial Analysis- Paul Dorosh, Hyoung
Gun Wang, Liang You and Emily Schmidth; February 2009
28s •Making Sense of Africa's Infrastructure Enclowment: A Renchmarking Approach: Tito Xepes, Justin Pierce
and Vivien Foster; Jrnuary 2008
29 SSATP Working Paper No,89- A Framework for a pro-growth, Pro-poor Transport Strategy, Nahusenay
Mitiku
30 SSATP Working Paper No. 86 – Institutional Arrangements for Transport Corridor Management in Sub-
Saharan Africa; Yao Adzigbey, Charles Kunaka, Tesfamichel Nahusenay Mitiku
31 SSATP- Second Development Plan 2008 – 2011 – Fostering Sound Policies and Strategies for the Provision
of Reliable, Safe, Efficient and Affordable Transport, October 2007
32 IDA 15 Mid-Term Review of the IDA Regional Program – International Development Association – IDA
Resource Mobilization Department (CFPIR) – October 2009
33 IIRSA –Initiative for the Integration of Regional Infrastructure in South America; Indicative Territorial
Planning, Project Pori folio 2009
34 IIRSA – Building a common future
35 IIRSA – Building a New Continent; Projer:t Information Sheets – Priority Investment Portfolio in South
America
36a Flyer: MesoAmerica Electricity Integration
.
36b Flyer: Proyecto Integracion y Desarollo Me ;oAmerica
39 IMF Regional Economic Outlook Africa April 2010 - Back to high growth
47 Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, Macroeconomic effects of public investment in
infrastructure in India, 2006
48 WB The cost of attaining the MDGs
AU/NEPAD African Action Plan 2010 – 2015 – Advancing Regional and Continental
1 Integration in Africa – NEPAD Planning anc Coordinating Agency, Midrand South Africa-
2010 (Main and Final Technical Report)
The NEPAD infrastructure Medium to Term Strategic Framework (MLTSF) Study- Discussion
2
Papers and Reports
3 MLTSF Study Independent Assessors Report – February 2009
4 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP) Main Report– May 2002
5 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan – Review of Implementation Progress Report 2003
NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Draft RECs -Project Implementation Status Reports
6
2010
7 African Development Bank (ADB) : Review of Regional Operations Draft – May 2010
8 Proposal for Clean Energy Investment Framework for Africa
9 AICD Papers New as of 18 May 2010 not in 1. File Folders
9a •Power Sector Review
9b •Power Spending Needs
9c •Unit Costs of Infrastructure
CAREC- Central Asia Economic Cooperation – Energy Action Plan Framework – Good
10
Neighbors Good Partners. Good Prospect, – October 2009
Agence Française de Développement et Banque Africaine de Développement ; L’ENERGIE
11 EN AFRIQUE A L’HORIZON 2050 ; Etude conduite sous la direction de Jean-Pierre
Favennec ; décembre 2009 ; 84 pages.
Energy sector in the Mediterranean region, situation and prospective 2025; UNEP-MAP,
12
Plan Bleu, AFD, November 2009
Energy prospects in the Mediterranean region up to 2020 ; OME (Observatoire
13
Méditerranéen de l'Energie) ;
14 Plan Bleu, October 2006
15 The World Bank Group; Energy Strategy Approach Paper; October 2009
17 Integrated African Energy Vision 2035, AUC, ECA & UNIDO, 2009
AU/NEPAD African Action Plan 2010 – 2015 – Advancing Regional and Continental
1 Integration in Africa – NEPAD Planning anc Coordinating Agency, Midrand South Africa-
2010 (Main and Final Technical Report)
2 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP) Main Report– May 2002 – Draft Final Ver.2
Assessing Regional Integration in Africa IV – Enhancing Intra-African Trade, - ECA, AU, ADB
3
Report- May 2010
Africa's Infrastructure, A time for Transformaion, (Hard copy & electronic CD) – 2010; The
3
World Bank
4 WB Regional Integration Investment Portfolio (IDA and Global Environment Fund)
5 IDA 15 Mid Term Review of the IDA Regional Programme (CFPIR) October 2009
6 4.WB Regional Integration Investment Pipeline (FY10-FY14)
7 AICD Papers New as of 18 May 2010 not in 1. File Folders
7a •Air Transport Review
7b •Railway Sector Review
7c •Ports Review
7d •Transport Spending Needs
7e •Unit Costs of Infrastructure
7f •Infrastructure and Growth in Africa – Cesar «alderon –Janauary 2008
7g •Transport Prices and Costs in Africa: A rev ew of the main International Corridors;
SSATP Working Paper No,89- A Framework for a pro-growth, Pro-poor Transport Strategy,
8
Tesfamichaei Nahusenay Mitiku
SSATP Working Paper No. 86 – Institutional Arrangements for Transport Corridor
9 Management in Sub- Saharan Africa; Yao Adzigbey, Charles Kunaka, Tesfamichel
Nahusenay Mitiku
SSATP- Second Development Plan 2008 – 2011 – Fostering Sound Policies and Strategies
10
for the Provision of Reliable, Safe, Efficient and Affordable Transport, October 2007
IDA 15 Mid-Term Review of the IDA Regional Program – International Development
11
Association – IDA Resource Mobilization Department (CFPIR) – October 2009
12 Assessing Regional Integration in Africa volume 1, 2 and 3 by ECA and AU
15 Road network upgrading and overland trade expension in Sub Saharan Africa World Bank
17 World Bank SSATP Gazing into the mirror Operational internal control in Cameroon Customs
TWRM SECTOR
AU/NEPAD African Action Plan 2010 – 2015 – Advancing Regional and Continental
1 Integration in Africa – NEPAD Planning anc Coordinating Agency, Midrand South Africa-
2010 (Main and Final Technical Report)
The NEPAD infrastructure Medium to Term Strategic Framework (MLTSF) Study- Discussion
2
Papers and Reports
3 MLTSF Study Independent Assessors Report – February 2009
4 "African Economic Outlook (AEO) 2010
5 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP) Main Report– May 2002 – Draft Final Ver.2
6 NEPAD Short Term Action Plan – Review of Implementation Progress Report 2003
NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Second Review of Implementation Progress and
7
Way Forward – Continental Synthesis Report 2004
NEPAD Short Term Action Plan (STAP)- Draft RECs -Project Implementation Status Reports
8
2010
9 AfDB, 2000: Policy for Integrated Water Resources
Africa's Infrastructure, A time for Transformation, (Hard copy & electronic CD) – 2010; The
10
World Bank
11 WB Regional Integration Investment Portfolio (IDA and Global Environment Fund)
12 IDA 15 Mid Term Review of the IDA Regional Programme (CFPIR) October 2009
13 WB Regional Integration Investment Pipeline (FY10-FY14)
15d •Water Reforms in Senegal: A Regional cnd Interpersonal Distribution Impact Analysis
AfDB, 2005 : The Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Initiative (RWSSI), Launching
16
Documents.
AfDB, AWF, 2004: Instrument for the Establishment of the Africa Water Facility Special Fund
17
(Administered by the AfDB)
18 AMCOW Bulletins
AMCOW, 2002 : Statement of African Ministerial Conference on Water at the World Summit
19
on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, South
AMCOW, 2002: The Abuja Ministerial Declaration on Water - a key to Sustainable
20
Development in Africa.
AMCOW, 2006 : Conference of African River and Lake Basin Organization, Conference
21
Outcomes and Action Plan.
AU , 2008 : Sharm El-Sheikh Commitments for Accelerating the Achievement of Water and
22
Sanitation Goals in Africa.
AU, 2007 : Guidelines for establishing a cooperative framework agreement for the integrated
23
management of Transboundary basins.
24 AU, ECA, AfDB, 2000: Africa Water Vision 2025
34 ESA, 2006 : The TIGER Initiative Implementation Plan 2005-2007, Revision 2006.
35 FAO – AQUASTAT: Several publications and databases on Irrigation in Africa (FAO website)
GWP, UNDP, 2005 : L’Intiative Canadienne (PAWD), Programme for Water Development in
36
Africa .
40 Ministerial Declaration of the Hague Conference on Water security in the 21st Century.
2 ADB: Bank Group's Information & Communication Technologies (ICT) Operations Strategy –
Revised Version –ADF/BD/WP/2008/74/Rev.1 03 October 2008
3 AICD Papers New as of 18 May 2010 not in 1. File Folders
3a •ICT Sector Review
3b •ICT Investment Needs
5 Africa Analysis – Telecom – IT. Media – I'roject: Feasibility Study for the Terrestrial Segment
of the NEPAD ICT Broadband Infrastructure Network for Eastern and Southern Africa –
Issued tu : Brion Cheesman- NEPAD e-Commission
15
African ICT Week (AICTW) Concept Paper UA Nov 2009
16
ITU-D Information Society Statistical Profiles 2009 Africa
17 WB 2009 Extending Reach and increasing Impact
24 The Opportunities and Challenges of the East African Submarine Cable System (EASsy)
Dawit Bekele Internet Society
25
Highlights of the Internet for Africa meeting, Montpellier 10-12 Dec 2007
26
Internet Connectivity in Africa Montpellier 10-12 Dec 2007
27 Internet Exchange Points: A Business & Policy Perspective AFIX Decision-makers’
Workshop
28 Information Communications Technologies and Regional Integration: Africa and South
America; Information Communications Technologies and Regional Integration
29
ICT for Development and the MDGs
30
Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Africa UA 2008
ANNEXE 2
List of people met
Cross Sector
ANNEXE 3
List of Team members and
Expertise
Languages
Experience in
Name of Years of and degree of
Position Age Educational Background Specialist areas of knowledge beneficiary
Expert Experience fluency (VG,
country
G, W)
Togo
Niger
Jean- PhD Economics More than 35 years of experience in development economics, Mali
Programme including 27 years at the World Bank, mainly in the design and English: VG
François 32 65 Mining Engineering CEMAC
Leader implementation of adjustment and investment projects, French : VG
BAUER graduate WAEMU
primarily in infrastructure Gabon
Guinea
Algeria
Institutional Burundi
Etienne and
Postgraduate degree in Over 25 years’ experience in development economics and Rwanda English: VG
31 61 business administration public finance planning and budgeting in transition and
SOLTESZ development DR Congo French : VG
Master of Economics developing countries.
economist Benin
Gabon
Tunisia
Algeria
Post-doctorate in Integrated
Jacques Environnemen
44 71 Environmental Management 21 years of experience in the field of environmental and social Morocco English: VG
FRANSENN tal Expert management of development projects in Africa DR Congo French : VG
Doctorate in Biology
Guinea
Cameroon
Gabon
Postgraduate studies
Central African
Olivier
Legal advisor 20 45
diploma in International Over 15 years of professional experience as a legal expert in Republic
English: VG
D’AUZON Transport and Distribution the infrastructure and transport sector French : VG
Algeria
MA in Contract Law
Nigeria
Ghana
Burkina Faso
Jean-Pierre Infrastructure
42 71
Master of Science in 39 years of experience as economist, especially in the Mali English: VG
DIEHL economist Operations Research infrastructure and transport sector Mauritania French : VG
Egypt
Mozambique
Ph.D. in Political Science In-depth knowledge and hands-on experience of Project Cycle South Africa
Specialisation: Economic Management Monitoring & Evaluation, and Logical Framework Burkina Faso
Patrick Monitoring Development methodology. Egypt English: VG
33 59
FUSILIER expert DEA (Advanced Great experience of monitoring methods and tools: has carried Tunisia French : VG
postgraduate studies out numerous monitoring missions, as well as mid-term and DR Congo
diploma) in socio-economics final evaluations.
Languages
Experience in
Name of Years of and degree of
Position Age Educational Background Specialist areas of knowledge beneficiary
Expert Experience fluency (VG,
country
G, W)
Gabon
PhD: Economy & Congo
management Morocco
Eliot Project finance (Finance/Marketing) Infrastructure & equipment planning / investment: Cameroon, English: VG
35 61 Identification, appraisal ToR/tender documents & feasibility
SIMPSON expert MSc: Business Equatorial French : VG
administration studies, implementation, post-evaluation Guinea
(Accounting/Finance/Audit) Togo
Central Africa
Botswana
M.B.A., Finance & Zambia
Scott Investments More than 28 years experience as an investment banker, Malawi English: VG
PPP expert 23 48 senior manager, financial analyst, PPP consultant and utility
JAZYNKA B.B.A., International South Africa French : G
Business regulator in developed and developing countries Egypt
Nigeria
Chad
DESS (specialised
postgraduate studies Considerable experience of Environmental and Social Impact RD Congo
Laurence Assessment (infrastructures, facilities, roads), Social Burkina Faso English: VG
Social expert 37 60 diploma) in Political Science
WILHELM Management Plan; Involuntary resettlement Plan, Cameroon French : VG
Graduate of IUED (MSc
Compensation measures. Mali
Sociology & Anthropology)
Ethiopia
Customs inspector Algeria
qualification Tunisia
Trade/ Uniformed customs officer Solid international experience: held an appointment for 6 years Central African
Alain at the World Customs Organization in Brussels; since 1993 English: VG
customs 32 63 qualification Republic
LESAFFRE has conducted dozens of consultancy and training missions in French : VG
expert Bachelor of Law (validated Mali
after getting into the National developing and transition countries. Burkina Faso
School of Customs in 1973) Senegal
Pierre-Yves Multimodal
Transport economist, freight forwarding business, with 35 Burkina Faso English: VG
34 61 MBA years of professional experience.
BEZY expert Tunisia French : VG
Specific expertise in multimodal transport/maritime transport
Languages
Experience in
Name of Years of and degree of
Position Age Educational Background Specialist areas of knowledge beneficiary
Expert Experience fluency (VG,
country
G, W)
Francisco Macro
Ph.D. Economics Very good practical experience in Designing and running Morocco
English: VG
16 41 MBA in Applied macroeconomic models as well as Macroeconomic and fiscal Burkina Faso
SERRANITO Economist French : VG
Econometrics diagnostics and analysis in transition economies. Senegal
Languages
Experience in
Name of Years of and degree of
Position Age Educational Background Specialist areas of knowledge beneficiary
Expert Experience fluency (VG,
country
G, W)
DR Congo
Morocco
Egypt
Tunisia
PhD Business and Over 35 years experience in the energy sector Uganda English: VG
Ananda M.
COVINDASSAMY
Leader energy 38 65
Economics Over 15 years of experience in the preparation and Mozambique French : VG
assessment of energy strategies and policies. Benin
Côte d’Ivoire
Cameroon
Togo
Quality Assessment: evaluation of development impact of
projects and policy based operations with emphasis on
Tanzania
Eugene Strategy infrastructure; English: VG
41 68 Ph.D. Organic geochemistry Uganda
McArthy energy Vast Experience in the Energy sector: policy formulation, Mozambique
French : VG
institutional appraisal, privatization and environmental
mitigation in developing countries.
Gabon
Ivory Coast
Algeria
Idir Program PhD Development 33 years of experience in the energy sector, gained in an Cameroon English: G
36 60 African national electricity company, then as a energy
KENDEL energy Economics Niger French : VG
economist working as consultant in various countries. Morocco
Mauritania
Senegal
Gabon
Donald Ian Energy Ph.D, Natural Resources Senior economist specialised in simulation and projection work Ivory Coast English: VG
35 32 in the Energy Sector, and more precisely across Africa
HERTZMARK Projection Economics Uganda French : G
30 years of experience in energy economics and modelling Tanzania
Languages
Experience in
Name of Years of and degree of
Position Age Educational Background Specialist areas of knowledge beneficiary
Expert Experience fluency (VG,
country
G, W)
Ghana
Algeria
PhD in Transport Over 35 years of experience in the field of Transport of which Gabon
Bernard Leader Communications over 30 years in developing and transition countries, gained in DR Congo English: VG
43 70
CHATELIN transport Economy various contexts (Private sector, United Nations and World Egypt French : VG
BA in economics Bank funded projects), mainly in African countries. Tunisia
Ethiopia
Mozambique
Togo
Mali
MA in Political Economy 30 years of experience with the World Bank in the transport Chad
Alain Strategy sector, dealing with policy issues assessment, strategy English: VG
BALLEREAU
39 67 PhD in Development Gabon
transport development, and complex national investment programs and French : VG
Economics Ivory Coast
plans. RD Congo
Tanzania
Congo,
Gabon,
Xavier Prg rail
41 65
MA in Engineering Over 40 years of professional experience, gained in various Tunisia English G
NOUGUES transport Maritime school countries especially in Africa, in the field of railways. Algeria French VG
Senegal
Morocco
Angola
Yves LE Prg sea
Ph. D. in maritime Over 35 years of professional experience, gained in various Guinea English: G
GLOANNEC transport
37 66 transport countries, mostly in Africa, of maritime, port management and French : VG
Algeria
MBA inland water studies. Gabon
Senegal
Gilbert Master of Airport In-depth knowledge and hands-on experience of all of fields of Cameroon
Prg air civil aviation: after technical positions, specialised in airport Zambia English: VG
Edouard 40 65 Management
transport management, airport master plan development and the DR Congo French : VG
BILLIEZ Civil aviation Engineer
restructuring of civil aviation administration Niger
Languages
Experience in
Name of Years of and degree of
Position Age Educational Background Specialist areas of knowledge beneficiary
Expert Experience fluency (VG,
country
G, W)
Ph.D. in Agricultural
Engineering (Irrigation Integrated water resources management and transboundary
and Water Resources Morocco
river basin management specialist with 30 years of Senegal
Olivier Management) international experience in over 25 countries worldwide. Focus English: VG
Leader TWR 34 59 Egypt
COGELS M.Sc. in Agricultural on policies, strategies, programmes and projects, institutions, French : VG
Mauritania
Engineering (Irrigation and international cooperation for the management of Burundi
and Agricultural Water transboundary water resources.
Management)
Niger
Morocco
More than 15 years of professional experience in Integrated Mauritania
Ph.D. in Applied Geology Water Resources Management issues. Institutional Mali
Michel strengthening of water management at international and English: VG
SOULIE
Strategy water 38 64 Master of Sciences in Guinea
national level: promoting institutional reforms, developing French : VG
Geology Nigeria
sustainable water environmental policy, improving water law Chad, Cameroon
and regulatory framework Botswana
Zimbabwe
PhD in Agricultural South Africa,
Languages
Experience in
Name of Years of and degree of
Position Age Educational Background Specialist areas of knowledge beneficiary
Expert Experience fluency (VG,
country
G, W)
Languages
Experience in
Name of Years of and degree of
Position Age Educational Background Specialist areas of knowledge beneficiary
Expert Experience fluency (VG,
country
G, W)
ANNEXE 4
Specific Sector Annexes
ANNEXE 4
Specific Sector Annexes
ENERGY
Annex A Country Score Card
Annex B REC Score Card
Annex C Inventory of Regional Projects
Annex D Outline of Energy Sector Strategic Framework
Annex E Methodology for preparing the Outline of Strategic Framework
Annex F Statistical Tables
Annex A
Country Score Card
Country Name:
Number of households
Finance National Creditworthiness
Sovereign credit rating
Sovereign bond terms and rating
Power System description
Power installed capacity
Power available capacity
Length of >110 kV network
Capacity of interconnections
Power availability
Energy generation
Energy consumption
Energy imports(+)/Exports (-)
Commercial and planning
Commercial & non commercial losses
Bill collection rate
Average Tariff (USCents/kWh)
Residential Tariff
National Development Plan?
LRMC
Access rate 2009
Access rate 2020
Access rate 2040
Institutional
Monopolistic generation by law?
Monopolistic distribution by law?
Separate Regulator?
IPPs?
Market
Monopolistic, single buyer, competitive
Long term contracts?
Utility
Cash flow on operations
% cash flow/revenues
Overall country business climate assessment
Annex B
REC Score Card
REC name
Energy trade within the region
Energy export outside of the region
Managing a competitive regional market
REC strategic objectives
- lowering energy cost
- accelerating access
- poverty reduction
- support to PPP
- ……
Existence of a regional water management mechanism
REC Long Term Development Plan
REC Long Term Transmission plan
Coordination mechanism REC/national plans
REC dispatch center
REC technical standards
Annex C Inventory
of Regional
Projects
1 PURPOSE AND STATUS OF THE PROJECT
1.1 MOTIVATIONS/OBJECTIVES FOR DEVELOPING THE PROJECT
1.2 THE TRADE OR OFF-TAKE SOLUTION PUT IN PLACE
1.3 PROGRESS AGAINST TARGETS TO DATE
Annex D
Outline of Energy
Sector Strategic
Framework
1- General Continental Energy Sector Vision/overview
2- World outlooks and change in the energy sector strategic context relevant to the African
Continent and to each REC
Annexe E:
Methodology for
preparing the
Outline of Strategic
Framework
1. Strategic relevance, including articulating a clear continental sector vision and strategy
in the context of global and regional trends and the AU/NEPAD/REC mandate.
(a) Sector vision and proposing specific goals.
(b) Relevance to global development challenges at sector continental and regional levels
(c) Investment issues and considerations
(d) Links to poverty reduction.
(e) Links to other sectors (transport, water and IT in particular).
Annexe F
Statistical Tables
Electricity Access in 2005 (millions)
Final
Consu
261497 112456 43377 28282 16577 … 462207
mptio
n
Industry 25653 14408 19645 15336 9494 … 84536
Transport 0 66234 394 1459 5 … 68092
Residential -
235844 25266 23338 5623 5806 … 295895
other
Source: AfDB
Total Capital Investment in power sector 2010- 2030 (billion 2005 US$)