Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/224904596
CITATIONS READS
0 1,134
4 authors, including:
Some of the authors of this publication are also working on these related projects:
Numerical Simulation of Flow around Ship Hulls considering Rudder-Propeller Interaction View project
All content following this page was uploaded by Mohammad Shakil Ahmmed on 16 February 2016.
Cost and ManHour Estimation of the Production of
Merchant Ship at Design Stage
Mohammad Shakil Ahmmed1, Md. Mashud Karim2, Mohi Uddin Ahmed2, Md. Shohidur
Rahman2
1
School of Mechanical and Manufacturing Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW,
Australia
2
Departments of Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering, Bangladesh University of Engineering and
Technology, Dhaka1000, Bangladesh
2
BayTech Ship Solution Zone, Dhaka, Bangladesh
2
Dhaka Dockyard and Engineering Works, Dhaka, Bangladesh
Email: mmkarim@name.buet.ac.bd
ABSTRACT
Today’s competitive international market demands very competitive price, and timely delivery of the order. Cost
reduction is one of the basic and effective criteria to beat, and hold the market keeping the quality of standard
uncompromised. This paper concerns with the cost and man hour estimation at the design stage of the ship
production. Production of ship is a very complicated manufacturing process which encompasses many activities
to build a merchant ship. Perfect combination of these activities will not only reduce manhour but also cut down
the cost of production. The cost and man hour is predicted accurately in the work, and after that the predicted
results is compared with the real ship build data. Despite with the limited information of the ship at the design
stage, prediction of the cost and manhour will not be so accurate as it requires, but it will provide a significant
parameter which will help the shipyard, and owner of the ship to get at a design level.
Keywords: cost, production, cost estimation relationship, ship work breakdown structure, manhour
NOMENCLATURE
CER Cost Estimation Relationship CB Block coefficient
SWBS Ship Work Breakdown Structure L Length
QFD Quality Functional Development d draft
BHP Brake Horse Power B Beam
Wst Steel Weight D Depth
1. INTRODUCTION
Construction of the blocks of ship is not identical or similar to each other. So construction process as well as time
will not be same. To make a block of ship there are so many activity involves. Each block will not be erected with
same material or plate thickness. Consequently weight of the blocks will not be same, even if, they are being
identical. There are so many steps in making a block. Production time estimation is one of the most basic and
prime task in ship building process. The manhour quotation of products is the basic data for rational production
planning, cost accounting, performance evaluation, and vital in achieving high productivity. The assembly man
hour quotation accounts for about 30% to 50% of the total of shipbuilding manhour quotation. Manhour
estimation was simply calculated as a function of weight. The purpose of this paper is to measure the time of
production depending on the primary factor of ship along with the ship yard facilities.
2. BACKGROUND
The ability to estimate ship construction costs is necessary for the commercial success of a shipyard; too high an
estimate will place the shipyard out of the competitive range, and too low an estimate will result in a financial loss
and possible bankruptcy. In practice, an approximate cost estimate is developed during initial discussions with a
potential customer. This estimate is refined as the discussions progress and the customer’s requirements are
defined in greater detail. The refined requirements result in higher levels of technical detail (e.g., concept design,
preliminary design, contract design, and a specification of increased detail), which enable increased accuracy of
the cost estimate. This process culminates in a cost estimate upon which the shipyard can base a fixed price bid.
Developing and refining a cost estimate is a complex and timeconsuming process. Obstacles to success include
faulty technical information (e.g., obsolete, incomplete, inconsistent), lack of communication among departments
(e.g., rivalries, lack of peertopeer communication channels, secrecy), lack of a clearly defined process (e.g., ill
defined lines of authority, no freeze dates on design versions, different data formats), and problems with analytical
tools (e.g., incompatible software, varying levels of detail, lack of features, too complex, not user friendly, not
capable of being tailored to the needs of the shipyard or to specific projects). Overcoming these obstacles and
producing viable cost estimates requires knowledge and skills of management, vendors and, most importantly,
numerous shipyard departments, including engineering, production, planning, estimating, and marketing.
3. SCOPE OF ESTIMATION
To predict the cost of ship production generally is a taught task in arena of ship building. Scope and depth of a
given estimation can tailor to meet the needs of the user. So many attributes are involved in cost estimation, but,
general scopes of cost estimation for a new construction are as following:
Building costs
Labor and material costs for design/engineering, production and testing
Life cycle costs
Construction costs plus maintenance, operation, support, and modernization
Total ownership costs (applicable to naval ships or certain large commercial fleets)
Construction, life cycle costs plus infrastructure costs for training, and other indirect costs.
Despite this work presents cost system for new construction; these sorts of approach can be applied to measure the
costs for other major work i.e., repairing work, overhauls, modification, and modernization.
4. METHODS
Methods to predict cost for a new construction differ from the formal system to informal which is described
below:
Historical costing – engineers, naval architect create formulas, tables, and charts based on years of
experience, industry trends, and vendor data. Typically, estimators secure information closely, thus making
its accuracy difficult to confirm. The historical method can predict acceptable results in cases where the
shipyard constructs a single or a few ship types and sizes. This approach is not so dependable for ship types
or sizes beyond those normally constructed at the yard, or as costs become outdated.
Parametric method – systems and subsystems costs are characterized in a spreadsheet or cost estimation
program as a proportion of overall metrics such as length, volume, displacement and propulsion power. The
proportions are estimated through comparisons with similar ships. As with the black book approach, if
correlation levels are high, then the parametric approach yields good predictions; otherwise, the estimates
may not be sufficiently accurate for many technical and business decisions.
Standard ship approach – Some shipyards offer standard ship designs for which cost characteristics are well
known. This enables the yards to very quickly and confidently develop detailed bids for prospective
customers, and is an excellent solution if the designs match the customers’ requirements. However, even
with the flexibility for making limited changes to the design, many customers prefer to purchase a ship that
is more closely aligned to their business needs.
Direct analysis approach – As the design matures, costs may be estimated based on drawings, bills of
materials, historical vendor costs, and existing quotes. This approach is only practical after the design has
reached a level of significant technical maturity.
Shipyards may use combinations of the above approaches. For example, the parametric approach may be used for
structure, but the engineering approach may be used for ownerspecified engine and auxiliary equipment. Cost
estimates may be carried out by hand, spreadsheet, or on a computer program, and analysis results may be
presented at various levels of detail.
5. SEQUENTIAL STEPS OF ESTIMATION
The remainder part of the paper presents a practical approach for ship construction cost estimating, and is
organized as follows:
Cost estimating approach requirements
Cost estimating approach description
Parametric approach of cost estimation
Case study using the cost estimating approach
5.1 Cost estimating approach requirements
The cost estimating approach presented in this paper complies with the following requirements [1]:
Threetiered hierarchy of cost estimates to reflect varying levels of detail available to the cost estimator
during the design process.
Each tier is independent of the others, permitting the best information to be used at all times, and not
requiring that the estimate adhere to the “lowest common denominator” of information.
Material and labor elements are included (some shipyards may desire labor hours instead of labor cost
because of confidentiality concerns)
Confidence levels are presented to reflect the perceived accuracy of the engineering data and the Cost
Estimating Relationships (CER).
5.1.1 Hierarchical
The cost estimating approach is divided into three stage in order to reflect the three design phases (concept,
preliminary, contract) commonly encountered in ship construction, Fig.1. At times, data may be available at
different levels, and thus be placed in different tiers (see the following section, “Independence among tiers”).
However, the norm is for data to be of a fairly consistent level of detail among the various parts of the ship (e.g.,
structure, propulsion, electric plant) during a given design phase. Thus, the corresponding tier is populated with
technical and cost data during each of the three design phases, as described in the following paragraphs.
Fig. 1: Hierarchy of cost estimating approach
The first level is Concept Design and is the least detailed. Typically this tier is used at the start of the cost
estimating process when only limited information is available to the shipyard. This corresponds to elements of a 1
digit Ship Work Breakdown Structure (SWBS), and is based on about data elements relevant to the whole ship
(e.g., length overall, displacement, propulsion power). The second level is Preliminary Design. This corresponds
to elements of a SWBS and is based on data elements relevant to ship systems (e.g., structural system, propulsion
system, heating and ventilation system). The third level is Contract Design, and is the most detailed. The cost bid
is based on the information in this tier. This tier corresponds to elements of a SWBS, and is based on hundreds or
thousands of data elements relevant to subsystems (e.g., main engine cooling, main engine fuel pumping, and
main engine starting).
5.1.2 Independence among tiers
Independence among the tiers allows the cost estimator to develop the estimate based on technical data of varying
degrees of detail. For example, hull structure data may be available at the SWBS level (e.g., 117 – Transverse
Framing), but propulsion plant data may be available only at the level (e.g., 220 – Engineering Control Systems).
The cost estimating approach will accept data, and produce reports for each of these SWBS levels. Thus, it is not
necessary to wait until 3digit propulsion data is available before populating structures at the 3digit level of detail.
Independence among tiers enables the cost estimate to be based on the most detailed (and presumably the most
accurate) data available.
5.1.3 Material and labor included
Shipyards commonly divide costs into material and labor (material includes vendor and subcontractor costs, and
labor is only that of shipyard employees). In order to best serve the shipyard needs, the cost estimating approach
follows this convention by producing estimates for material and labor. Material Estimates are provided as costs,
but labor estimates are provided as labor hours (to maintain confidentiality of shipyard labor rates). Estimates are
provided for each SWBS element for which technical data is available.
5.1.4 Confidence levels
Shipyard management needs to know the level of accuracy of the cost estimate in order to properly develop the
bid. Put another way, management needs to know the level of uncertainty of the estimate. Uncertainty may be
quantified either through the application of margin or the provision of confidence levels. Both are commonly
subjective, though probabilistic calculations may be used. The cost estimating approach uses confidence levels
instead of margins. This is because confidence levels provide the user (e.g., management) with quantified insight
into the accuracy of the estimate. With this knowledge in hand, if certain parts of the estimate have low
confidence levels, then attention may be focused there to increase confidence levels, and thus increase the
accuracy of the estimate. Confidence levels are assigned to the engineering quantities (e.g., reflecting a 95%
confidence that the weight of structure is correct as reported) and also to the cost estimating relationships (e.g.,
reflecting 95% confidence in the estimated cost per weight factor). The two confidence levels are multiplied to
arrive at an overall confidence level (e.g., 95% x 95% = 90.25%). Confidence levels are presented by SWBS
element.
5.2 Cost Estimating Approach Description
Shipyards commonly develop ship designs in the engineering department, and develop ship cost estimates in the
cost estimating department. The cost estimating approach is designed to support this division of labor, and was
developed through input from engineers, cost engineers, and cost estimators. Key to the development success to
date were workshops at which shipyard technical and cost personnel suggested enhancements to early versions of
the cost estimating approach.
5.2.1 Description of the architecture
The cost estimating software is divided into two linked elements, one focused on engineering and the other
focused on cost. Each element is comprised of modules which carry out discrete operations. A functional flow
chart of the software is shown in Fig.2. The engineering element comprises the following five modules:
(1) Baseline ship engineering quantities – This module is used in the case where the design ship (i.e., the ship for
which cost is being estimated) is an extrapolation of a baseline ship (i.e., a ship for which costs are known). This
module is populated with data which describes both ships in terms of selected physical quantities (e.g., tones of
structural steel).
(2) Baseline and design ship principal particulars – Again, this component is used if there is a baseline ship. The
module is a repository for general (nonSWBS) data such as length between perpendiculars.
(3) Parametric engineering quantities – Parametric calculations are carried out in this module to estimate design
ship engineering quantities, based on a constant times the ratio of corresponding design and baseline ship principal
particulars (e.g., [constant] x [design ship length overall] / [baseline ship length overall])
(4) Assigned engineering quantities – As naval architects and marine engineers develop the design, increasingly
accurate engineering quantities become available for use in the cost estimating process. These “assigned
quantities” are entered into this module. Normally, these engineering quantities are more accurate (higher
confidence level) than the parametric engineering quantities of the previous module.
(5) Engineering quantities source selection – Here the user selects which engineering quantities (parametric or
assigned) will be used in the cost estimating process. Normally, at the start of the design process, parametric
engineering quantities are selected, and as the design progresses, assigned engineering quantities are selected.
The cost element comprises the following four modules:
Parametric cost – As with parametric engineering quantities, cost is estimated for the design ship based on
proportionality with regard to the baseline ship.
Assigned costs – As with assigned engineering quantities, assigned costs are directly entered into the
module. These costs are based on data such as initial estimates from vendors and from purchase orders.
Cost source selection – Again, as with the parametric engineering quantities source selection, the user
selects between the parametric and the assigned values.
Cost reports – This module produces three reports: 1digit, 2digit, and 3digit SWBS cost estimates, with
overall (engineering and cost) confidence levels provided for each cost entry.
Fig.2. Flow chart of cost estimation process
5.2.2 Data collection
The cost estimating software is hosted by a smart product model, to which various other components besides cost
estimating may be added (e.g., structures, stability, hull form) [2]. Engineering quantities, parametric constants,
confidence levels, and cost data are entered and reviewed in dialogue boxes and on Excel worksheets all of which
may be tailored to the needs of specific users. Although the cost estimating software may operate in a standalone
mode, the smart product model host offers several advantages:
Integration of cost with engineering models the engineering basis of the cost estimates (e.g., Weight, volume,
and engine power) can be automatically linked to receive input from the Engineering components.
Enhanced communication within the design team – engineers, cost estimators, production Planners and
management view a consistent set of technical and cost data.
Configuration control – permission can be assigned to ensure that only authorized users enter and revise data
in their respective task areas.
Onestop high level modeling and estimating – the engineering and cost information developed by the smart
product model is at a level at which sufficient detail is available to develop data on which meaningful
technical and cost decisions can be based, yet the quantity of data is small enough to permit quick side
studies, and to reflect the present state of an ongoing design.
Single database for engineering and cost data – data can be stored in one place for all aspects of the design
and cross referenced, presented in various hierarchies, and formatted for reports. A single database helps
ensure data consistency.
Major costs are: Material, outfit, Equipment, Accommodation, Machinery, Deck Machinery, Electrical and
electronics, Labor cost.
5.3 Case Study Using the Cost Estimating Approach
A case study will illustrate the cost estimating approach with an ocean going multipurpose vessel as the example
ship. The ship is similar to the Double Eagle cargo design of Stella Shipping Corporation Germany with the ship’s
principal characteristics presented in Table 1 [3]. Design of the ship was featured in Stella Project. Slightly revised
versions of the Double Eagle SWBS and weight breakdown are used in the case study.
Table 1: Ship principle characteristics
5.3.1 Cost and labor hour
All costs and hour information and certain weight information are notional, and are not based on actual Double
Eagle data. With regard to cost, much depends upon where (country and shipyard) the ship is constructed. Actual
costs are not as relevant to this case study as showing the cost estimating approach. Thus, an approximate cost is
considered sufficient. In general, half of the construction cost is assumed to be absorbed by shipyard labor, and the
assumed labor rate is $1/hour, resulting in total labor hours of 1,100,000. Subdivision of cost and hours is based
on weight. The various activities and actions which are necessary for block construction:
a) Adjusting tools
b) Clearing Work Area
c) Collecting/Moving Equipment
d) Cutting with a Gas Torch
e) Fitting
f) Grinding
g) Idle
h) Moving or Positioning Parts to be welded
i) Tack Welding
j) Waiting
k) Walking into/out of view
Not all these activities are applicable to all the observations made at the various work stations.
5.3.2 Empirical CERs
The purpose of Empirical CERs (ECERs) is to provide a parametric approach for estimating construction costs at
the various stages of design. ECERs will permit new ship cost predictions long before detailed information
becomes available for directly translating actual production parameters into cost. The Parametric method is
structured to use a statistical analysis that carefully considers factors like ship type, complexity, and basic ship
characteristics such as displacement, speed, individual system weights, hull form, and associated ship costs, so
new ship cost predictions can be correlated empirically to those parameters. The concept of the Parametric
Module is to develop forms of equations by which the user could either tailor the equations or automatically
update their coefficients with actual return costs that have been imported into the database. ECERs were
developed using a limited database commercial vessels which included ships of all types from 36ft workboats to
large tankers. It was found that for the same ship type, many of the proposed parameters are dependent on each
other. For example, steel weight is dependent on length, beam, depth, draft, and speed. The dependencies of
various ship characteristics or parameters were determined by limiting the required number of variables within the
equations next, the data points were plotted to find the best form of the equations. For each stage of construction
(concept, preliminary, and contract) linear and nonlinear regressions were performed to derive ECERs for a
variety of parameter combinations and forms of equations. The equations with least error were selected as the
recommended ECERs. At the concept level, the price of the total ship is a function of displacement (DISPL),
speed, and a complexity factor (CF): PRICE = CF x A x DISPL b x SPEED c. Values for the coefficient A and
exponent’s b and c would be determined by applying this equation form in a regression analysis of a user’s
database of return costs. Because the cost data available to the IPT was for various ship types, it was necessary to
use a Complexity Factor to normalize the data and achieve better equations. The use of Complexity Factors is not
unique to the Cost. Complexity Factors are used in other models such as the Cost Estimating Model, PRICE H.
The Complexity Factor the IPT used is derived from a Size Factor and Ship Type Factor; Size Factor is 32.47 x
DISPL0.3792. The OECD coefficients for Compensated Gross Tons were used for both the ship type and the ship
size factors. Table 2 depicts the lists ship type factors for ships ranging from crude oil tankers.
Table 2: Ship type factors
Ship Type Type factor
Crude Oil Tanker 0.8
Product Tanker 1.13
Chemical Tanker 1.25
Double Hull Tanker 0.90
Bulk Carrier 0.86
Oil/Bulk/Ore Carrier 0.95
Containership 0.96
RollOn/RollOff 0.86
Car Carrier 0.61
Ferry 1.25
Passenger Ship 3.0
Fishing Boat 2.20
Tug 0.80
Labor hour for hull, machinery, outfitting and other, and –electrical can be calculated by using the following
formulas [4]
Labor hour for hull
(1)
1) CFx177xWeighthull 0.862
(2)
2) 800xWeighthull
Labor hour for machinery
(3)
1) CFx365xWeightmachinery 0.704
(4)
2) 15000+20000xWeightmachinery
Labor hour for out fitting and other
(5)
1) 310xWeightoutfiting 0.949
(6)
2) 5000+10000xWeighthoutfittingl
Labor hour for electrical
(7)
1) 382xWeightelectricall 1.025
(8)
2) 25000xWeighthelectricall
5.3.2 Cost estimating process
Cost data and calculations usually applied to the engineering quantities, and to the costs associated with the
baseline ship SWBS elements. The approach to derive design ship estimated engineering material quantities are
depicts in Fig. 4, and approach to derive design ship estimated material costs and labor costs are given in Fig. 5.
Fig. 4: Approach to derive design ship estimated engineering material quantities
Fig. 5: Approach to derive design ship estimated material costs and labor hours
Many formulae have been suggested by researchers for estimating the finished steel weight [5]
10 5 ((5.11X L 3.33X B ) (2.56 X L 2X B D 2))
W st 1
Cb 3
( ) D
= .8 X tones (9)
Many formulae have been suggested by researchers for estimating the finished machinery weight.
This weight generally includes everything in the hull weight except the net steel weight. Many weights have to
obtain separately. In certain cases the finished weight can be obtained from the subcontractors. They could be
supplying equipment such as winches, windlass, lifeboats, fridge machinery, galley equipment, hold and twin
deck insulation, navigation instruments, etc. Most of the Wood and Outfit (W&O) weight will be generally
situated within the accommodation spaces. There are two popular methods for obtaining the final (W&O) weight
for a new ship.
This method requires calculating a coefficient ‘B’ for a basic ship and then using the same coefficient for the new
similar design.
B
W & OforbasicshipX 100
( L B X B B)
= (10)
L DX B D
BX
W&O for new design= 100 (11)
The coefficient B depends upon the standard of accommodation, number of crew, refrigerated stores, etc.
For a General Cargo ship or Oil Tanker the value of will be of the order of 20–30. It is very important to take care
with the selection of the basic ship when comparing her with the new design. They must be similar in type, and
close in size, speed and power. Table 3 shows the predicted values of the calculation. And Table 4 shows the
comparison between the theoretical value and the actual value of the ship that built.
The total machinery weight includes: main engine, auxiliary machinery, propeller, propeller shaft, engine spares.
W = ship’s displacement in tones,
V = ship’s service speed in knot
P = power in kW,
= PB for brake power in Diesel machinery,
= PS for shaft power in Steam Turbine machinery.
Table 3: Theoretical values of the calculation
ManHour Direct Cost
Item Weight (tones) ManHour (MH) Item Cost
Hull 411 42165 Hull 328800
Machinery 185 19153 Machinery 3715000
Outfitting 382 78732 Outfitting 3425000
Electrical 26 10775 Electrical 650000
Total 323225 MH 8118800
Table 4: Comparison between calculated and actual values
Predicted Actual Cost
Cost
Items Cost Cost Percentage of error ( CostP CostA)2
Hull 328800 315648 4.17% (+ve) 131522
Machinery 3715000 3446864 7.78%(+ve) 2681362
Outfitting 3425000 3619540 5.37% (ve) 1945402
Electrical 650000 618318 5.12%(+ve) 316822
( CostP CostA)2
Standard of error Se= n2 = 235496 USD
View publication stats
6. CONCLUSION:
For successive design of a ship, it is required to perform all the tasks accurately from design stage to production.
The cost and manhour estimation for ship design and production is a vital issue. If the probable cost of the ship is
found at the beginning stage of the ship design and production, the forecasting will be realistic and so on will
beneficial for clinching the competitive market. The present work deals with the cost estimation at the design
stage, so that the forecasting will be done at the very beginning. The calculated result shows good agreement with
the real shipbuild data. There are some differences between the predicted results and the real data, this is because
the theoretical formula doesn’t consider the demographic conditions where the ship builds. There are some other
issues which have not been taken into account, as weather conditions, economical conditions of the global market,
cost of the raw materials, labor availability, and these issues are concerned with particular areas where the ship
will be built. Despite of these issues, the present method will be beneficial for the shipyard for cost and –labor
hour estimating at the design stages, and so to win the race at the competitive shipbuilding market.
7. REFERENCES:
(1) Ross, J.M., Forging a RealTime LinkBetween Initial Ship Design and Estimated Costs, 11th
International Conference on Computer Applications in Shipbuilding, Malmo, Sweden, pp. 7588, 2002.
(2) Ross, J.M., Mcnatt, T.R., Hazen, G., The Project 21 Smart Product ModelA New Paradigm for Ship
Design, Cost Estimation and Production Planning, Ship Production Symposium, The Society of Naval
Architects and Marine Engineers, Ypsilanti, Michigan, USA, Paper 6, 2001
(3) 4100 DWT Multipurpose Vessel, Built in 2009, Western Marine Shipyard Ltd., Bangladesh, 2009
(4) Ennis, K.J., Dougherty, J.J, Lamb, T., Greenwell, C.R., Zimmermann, R., ProductOriented Design and
Construction Cost Model, Ship Production Symposium, SNAME, 1997
(5) Barras, C.B., Ship Design and Performance for Master and Mates (Book)