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 Process Control Approach
• Understand the Origins of Variation

• Detect and Separate Random and Deterministic

Variation

• Use Engineering Principles to Understand

Deterministic Effect

• Model the Random Behavior Using Probability

and Statistics Based on Measurements
– Make Predictions about Expected Variation
– “Control” or Manage Variation using Statistical
Models
X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 3
 But First: Manufacturing Goals
• Quality
– Produce what is Specified at all Times
• Rate
– Produce to Meet Demand
• Cost
– Produce at a Competitive Cost
• Flexibility
– Change (Rapidly, without Cost or Quality
Penalties) what is Produced to Match Demand

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 4
 Our Focus
• Unit Processes
– Basic Element of a Production System

• (1) Maximizing Quality

– Conformance to Specifications
• Minimizing Variability

• (2) Improving Throughput

• (3) Improving Flexibility
• (4) Reducing Cost

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 5
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 Effects of Process Variability
• Car Body Panels have variable gaps when
assembled.
• Minimum feature size on a semiconductor chip
has too much variability causing variable speed.
• Polymer throttle bodies for fuel injection systems
are out of round causing rough idle.
• DNA diagnostic chip has uneven flow channels
• High density electrical connector has highly
variable contact spacing causing circuit failure
• Web thickness of a machined panel is non-
uniform, causing variable strength

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 9
 Other Related Problems
• 100% inspection with high scrap rates
– low throughput
– high costs

• 100% inspection with frequent rework

– low throughput
– high costs

• High variability at changeover

– Reluctance to changeover
– low flexibility

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 10
 Summary
• Process Control Focused on Quality via Variation
Reduction
• Processes are Inherently Variable
• We will Characterize and Learn how to Minimize
Variability to Maximize Quality

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 11
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Where We Are Going: Chasing Variation
• Origins of Deterministic Variations
– Equipment
– Material
– Operation Normal Probability Density Function for σ2 = 1, µ=0

• Modeling of Random Variation 0.4

0.3

– Probabilistic Models of the Process

p(x)
0.2

0.1

– Statistics as Outputs
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
x

– Deviation from Expected Behavior

• Variation Reduction 5

– Factors Influencing Statistical Behavior -5

-10

– Optimization of Statistical Behavior

-15

-20
1
0.6
-25 0.2
-0.2
-0.6
-1

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 13
 How to Model This Variability?
• First Principles of Physics (F = ma)

– Find Deterministic Cause for Variation based on

Process Physics

– Develop Predictive Models and Calibrate Globally

– E.G. Predict deformation strains, thermal

shrinkage, machine deflections, etc.

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 14
 How to Model Variability?

• Empirical Models (y = mx + b)

– Develop “Standard” Models of Deterministic Input

– Output Behavior (Regression, curved fitting)

– Calibrate Locally for Small Variations

– This is focus of 2.8302x

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 15
 How to Model This Behavior?
• Statistical Models (a<Prob(x) < b)

– Assume Inherent Randomness in Process

– Create Models of that Randomness

– Use Models to Compare/Improve Behavior

– This is the Focus of 2.830.1x

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 16
 Process Definition
• A Manufacturing Process is a Change in the
Workpiece Material

– Change in Geometry
• From Initial Shape to Final Shape
• Focus on Key or Critical Dimensions

– Change in Constitutive Properties

• Mechanical
• Electrical
• Thermal
• Chemical

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 17
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 The Process Components

Operator Workpiece Part

Equipment
Material

• Etch bath • Coated Silicon • IC chip

• Injection Molder • Plastic Pellets • Connector Body
• Lathe • Bar stock • Shaft
• Draw Press • Sheet Metal • Hood
• ... • ... • ...

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 19
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 Summary
• We “chase” variation by looking for both
deterministic and random variations in the
process output.
• A process comprises equipment, material and an
operator.
• Variation can arise from any of these three
sources.

• Next: Production Lab

– Let’s Make some Variation!

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 21
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 Production Lab Objectives
• Observe Part Production
• Observe Variation
– Deterministic
– Random
• Provide a Context for the Process Model
• Generate Real Data for Later Analysis

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 23
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 Production Lab Experience
• Produce Multiple “Identical” Parts
• Follow a “Standard Operating Procedure”
– See file “Lab SOP’s”
• Introduce Known Changes to the Process
– Change Equipment Input or Material
• Measure Key Dimension(s) on the Resulting Parts
– Multiple Measurements and Measurers
• Record the Data in Sequence
• Note any Deviations or Anomalies

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 25
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 SOP
• Advance the bar stock in the collet to a 80 mm
extension using the tool as a reference.
• Set the feedrate to 0.185 mm/rev.
• Advance the tool for a depth of cut of 1 mm
• Engage the feed until the digital readout reaches
75 mm.
• Remove the part and mark the sequence
• Repeat for a federate of 0.107 mm/rev
• Measure all parts at the far end, the collet end
and the midpoint using a digital micrometer
• Record all measurements by sequence.

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 27
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 Observations
• Date Made a Big Difference
• There are “outliers”
– Outlying from what?
• The location does matter especially for the high
feed
– Outer location is consistently larger
– The difference is less for low feed
• There seems to be a consistent downward trend
in the data taken in September.
• There is randomness in all the data

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 32
 Summary
• A Detailed SOP was Followed Yet Significant
Variation Occurred
• The Data Shows both Deterministic and Random
Behavior
• Some of the Deterministic Changes have Clear
Causes
– Location of Measurement
– Change in Date Between Production Runs

• We Need Better Process Control!

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 33
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 SOP
• Zero punch using a gauge block in the tooling,
zeroing the x axis display
• Remove block and move carriage until the display
reaches the thickness of the block + the sheet
thickness
• Zero the display
• Place a coupon centered on the pins on the die,
• Move the carriage to the specified depth
– 8 or 16 mm
• Remove the part and mark the sequence number.
• Repeat for 10 parts of each material

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 36
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.9 4 562497 642484 58 .8 412593 352490
71 4 562933 642337 53 .8 4.2713 3528.7
7. 4 56290 6423.4 54 .8 412383 302674
77 4 552100 642877 59 .8 412973 35249
76 4 56269 642813 01 .8 4123.7 3524.7
75 4 562904 642330 0. .8 4.2..6 3528.4
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 Observations
• Punch Depth Has a Strong Effect on Angle
• Material Thickness Gives a Different Angle for the
Same Punch Depth
• When Thickness and Depth are Constant the
Angle Varies ”Randomly”
• The Measurement Process Is Strongly Influenced
by the Operator’s Skill

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 42
 Summary
• A Detailed SOP was Followed Yet Significant
Variation Occurred
• The Data Shows both Deterministic and Random
Behavior
• Some of the Deterministic Changes have Clear
Causes
– Punch Depth
– Material Thickness
• When These Causes are Eliminated There is Still
Variation

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 43
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 Recall: Production Lab Objectives
• Observe Part Production
• Observe Variation
– Deterministic
– Random
• Provide a Context for the Process Model
• Generate Real Data for Later Analysis

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 45
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 SOP
• At a fixed (low) cooling time of 20 seconds
– NB: All other machine parameters are held fixed
• Injection Speed
• Packing Pressure
• Cycle the machine to produce 10 parts
• Retrieve each part and mark with group number,
sequence and time
• Measure the outer diameter with a digital caliper.
at three different locations for each part
• Change the cooling time to 30 seconds and
repeat the above procedure.

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 47
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 Observations
• Cooling Time has a strong deterministic effect
• There are again “outliers”
– Outlying from what?
– Should we investigate?
• There is randomness in all the data after the
cooling time is held constant
• NB: There are many other parameters to set
beyond cooling time !

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 52
 Summary
• A Detailed SOP was Followed Yet Significant
Variation Occurred
• The Data Shows both Deterministic and Random
Behavior
• The Observed Deterministic Change Has a Clear
Correlations
– Effect of Cooling Time

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 53
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 Thermoforming SOP
• Setup Machine
– Set Oven Temperature to 120ºC
– Set Oven Time to 30 seconds
• Production of 0.030” PET (clear) Parts
– Insert the blank into the carriage clamps
– Initiate the machine cycle
– Remove and mark with the sequence number.
– Repeat this cycle for 10 parts
• Repeat with 0.030” ABS (white) Material.
• Die Cut the Flash Material from the Part
• Measure outer diameter of large feature with a
digital caliper at three locations

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 56
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 Observations
• Effect of Material Change is Very Small
– Are we sure it happened?
– What Else Might Have Happened?
• There are “Outliers”
– Or Real Changes?
• The Effect of Trimming on Measurement is
Unknown but Could Add Noise

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 60
 Summary
• A Detailed SOP was Followed Yet Significant
Variation Occurred
• The Data Shows both Deterministic (??) and
Random Behavior
• The Material Change Effect was (In)Significant?
• Bonus: The Heating Time is the Rate Limiter
– Can we Minimize and Still Get good Quality??
– Knowing the Process Physics Could Help

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 61
 Credits
• Figures and data on slide 6
Dora Aldama, Ryan Morrison, and Jimmy Smith, “Characterization of Epilog Fusion LaserJet”
Project report for MIT subject 2.830, May 2017.

• Figures and data on slide 7

Peter Chamberlain, “Rapid & Controlled Manufacturing of Microfluidic Devices using Hot Embossing”.
S.M. Thesis, Department of Mechanical Engineering, MIT, June, 2016.

X
Principles of 2.830.1x
Manufacturing 62