Y X X(-1) X(-2) PDL0 = Zt0 PDL1 = Zt1

1960 60 48.8
1961 61.8 50.6 48.8
1962 63.9 52.9 50.6 48.8 152.3 148.2 1
1963 65.4 55 52.9 50.6 158.5 154.1 1
1964 67.9 57.5 55 52.9 165.4 160.8 1
1965 69.4 59.6 57.5 55 172.1 167.5 1
1966 71.9 62 59.6 57.5 179.1 174.6 1
1967 73.8 63.4 62 59.6 185 181.2 1
1968 76.3 65.4 63.4 62 190.8 187.4 1
1969 77.4 65.7 65.4 63.4 194.5 192.2 1
1970 78.9 67 65.7 65.4 198.1 196.5 1
1971 80.4 69.9 67 65.7 202.6 198.4 1
1972 82.7 72.2 69.9 67 209.1 203.9 1
1973 84.5 74.5 72.2 69.9 216.6 212 1
1974 83.5 73.2 74.5 72.2 219.9 218.9 1
1975 84.4 75.8 73.2 74.5 223.5 222.2 1
1976 86.8 78.5 75.8 73.2 227.5 222.2 1
1977 87.9 79.8 78.5 75.8 234.1 230.1 1
1978 89.5 80.7 79.8 78.5 239 236.8 1
1979 89.7 80.7 80.7 79.8 241.2 240.3 1
1980 89.5 80.4 80.7 80.7 241.8 242.1 1
1981 89.5 82 80.4 80.7 243.1 241.8 1
1982 90.9 81.7 82 80.4 244.1 242.8 1
1983 91 84.6 81.7 82 248.3 245.7 1
1984 91.3 87 84.6 81.7 253.3 248 1
1985 92.7 88.7 87 84.6 260.3 256.2 1
1986 95.8 91.4 88.7 87 267.1 262.7 1
1987 96.3 91.9 91.4 88.7 272 268.8 1
1988 97.3 93 91.9 91.4 276.3 274.7 1
1989 95.9 93.9 93 91.9 278.8 276.8 1
1990 96.5 95.2 93.9 93 282.1 279.9 1
1991 97.5 96.3 95.2 93.9 285.4 283 1
1992 100 100 96.3 95.2 291.5 286.7 1
1993 99.9 100.5 100 96.3 296.8 292.6 1
1994 99.7 101.9 100.5 100 302.4 300.5 1
1995 99.3 102.6 101.9 100.5 305 302.9 1
1996 99.7 105.4 102.6 101.9 309.9 306.4 1
1997 100.4 107.6 105.4 102.6 315.6 310.6 1
1998 104.3 110.5 107.6 105.4 323.5 318.4 1
1999 107.3 114 110.5 107.6 332.1 325.7 1

39
 Ŷ e e2

152.3 148.2 67.3314406 -3.4314406 11.7747848 1

158.5 154.1 68.6237945 -3.2237945 10.3928508 X' 152.3
165.4 160.8 70.1102057 -2.2102057 4.88500929 148.2
172.1 167.5 71.6233773 -2.2233773 4.94340668
179.1 174.6 73.2402677 -1.3402677 1.79631751 38
185 181.2 74.8245159 -1.0245159 1.0496329 X'X 9238.7
190.8 187.4 76.278285 0.02171498 0.00047154 9113.6
194.5 192.2 77.5095303 -0.1095303 0.01199688
198.1 196.5 78.5743315 0.32566847 0.10605995 0.80259108
202.6 198.4 78.6555551 1.74444487 3.04308789 (X'X)
-1
-0.0384483
209.1 203.9 79.7639091 2.93609091 8.62062981 0.03573932
216.6 212 81.6735469 2.8264531 7.9888371
219.9 218.9 83.7135744 -0.2135744 0.04561403 3349.1
223.5 222.2 84.4187273 -0.0187273 0.00035071 X'Y 834590.11
227.5 222.2 83.88352 2.91648 8.50585559 823603.37
234.1 230.1 85.8416498 2.05835021 4.23680557
239 236.8 87.5956647 1.90433531 3.62649296 34.4095757
241.2 240.3 88.5600699 1.13993015 1.29944074 β -0.1338018
241.8 242.1 89.1271558 0.37284423 0.13901282 0.35964834
243.1 241.8 88.8453189 0.65468112 0.42860737
244.1 242.8 89.0711654 1.82883461 3.34463603 e' -3.4474857
248.3 245.7 89.5521779 1.44782212 2.09618889
253.3 248 89.7103599 1.5896401 2.52695565 e'e 138.051752
260.3 256.2 91.7228635 0.97713654 0.95479582
267.1 262.7 93.1507252 2.64927479 7.01865691 σ2 3.72921941
272 268.8 94.6889511 1.61104889 2.59547854
276.3 274.7 96.2355284 1.06447157 1.13309971 2.99303824
278.8 276.8 96.6562854 -0.7562854 0.57196756 var-covar(B -0.1433822
282.1 279.9 97.3296492 -0.8296492 0.68831775 0.13327978
285.4 283 98.003013 -0.503013 0.25302206
291.5 286.7 98.5175207 1.48247934 2.19774499
296.8 292.6 99.9302962 -0.0302962 0.00091786
302.4 300.5 102.022228 -2.3222278 5.39274187
305 302.9 102.537499 -3.237499 10.4814
309.9 306.4 103.140639 -3.4406392 11.8379984
315.6 310.6 103.888492 -3.4884918 12.1695752
323.5 318.4 105.636714 -1.3367144 1.7868054
332.1 325.7 107.111452 0.18854847 0.03555053
3349.1 1.0921E-08 137.981118
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
158.5 165.4 172.1 179.1 185 190.8 194.5 198.1
154.1 160.8 167.5 174.6 181.2 187.4 192.2 196.5

9238.7 9113.6
2336192.23 2305800.06
2305800.06 2275913.56

-0.0384483 0.03573932
0.01067494 -0.0106612
-0.0106612 0.01065849

-3.2294621 -2.2281136 -2.2267652 -1.3553613 -1.0106558 0.00997683 -0.0712355 0.320854

-0.1433822 0.13327978
0.0398092 -0.0397578
-0.0397578 0.03974783
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
202.6 209.1 216.6 219.9 223.5 227.5 234.1 239
198.4 203.9 212 218.9 222.2 222.2 230.1 236.8

1.70868165 2.93227455 2.81662914 -0.1305197 -0.0729881 2.89959857 2.07870259 1.92076654

 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
241.2 241.8 243.1 244.1 248.3 253.3 260.3 267.1
240.3 242.1 241.8 242.8 245.7 248 256.2 262.7

1.17551355 0.40696801 0.63676962 1.87936263 1.39648117 1.58400644 0.98455815 2.62387012

 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
272 276.3 278.8 282.1 285.4 291.5 296.8 302.4
268.8 274.7 276.8 279.9 283 286.7 292.6 300.5

1.65268094 1.06820598 -0.7412144 -0.8268805 -0.4909396 1.42557424 0.02199082 -2.3257791

 1 1 1 1 1
305 309.9 315.6 323.5 332.1
302.9 306.4 310.6 318.4 325.7

-3.2137518 -3.4781132 -3.4889188 -1.3611907 0.15590945

 Y X x(-1) x(-2) x(-3)
1960 60 48.8
1961 61.8 50.6 48.8
1962 63.9 52.9 50.6 48.8
36 1963 65.4 55 52.9 50.6 48.8 1
1964 67.9 57.5 55 52.9 50.6 1
1965 69.4 59.6 57.5 55 52.9 1
1966 71.9 62 59.6 57.5 55 1
1967 73.8 63.4 62 59.6 57.5 1
1968 76.3 65.4 63.4 62 59.6 1
1969 77.4 65.7 65.4 63.4 62 1
1970 78.9 67 65.7 65.4 63.4 1
1971 80.4 69.9 67 65.7 65.4 1
1972 82.7 72.2 69.9 67 65.7 1
1973 84.5 74.5 72.2 69.9 67 1
1974 83.5 73.2 74.5 72.2 69.9 1
1975 84.4 75.8 73.2 74.5 72.2 1
1976 86.8 78.5 75.8 73.2 74.5 1
1977 87.9 79.8 78.5 75.8 73.2 1
1978 89.5 80.7 79.8 78.5 75.8 1
1979 89.7 80.7 80.7 79.8 78.5 1
1980 89.5 80.4 80.7 80.7 79.8 1
1981 89.5 82 80.4 80.7 80.7 1
1982 90.9 81.7 82 80.4 80.7 1
1983 91 84.6 81.7 82 80.4 1
1984 91.3 87 84.6 81.7 82 1
1985 92.7 88.7 87 84.6 81.7 1
1986 95.8 91.4 88.7 87 84.6 1
1987 96.3 91.9 91.4 88.7 87 1
1988 97.3 93 91.9 91.4 88.7 1
1989 95.9 93.9 93 91.9 91.4 1
1990 96.5 95.2 93.9 93 91.9 1
1991 97.5 96.3 95.2 93.9 93 1
1992 100 100 96.3 95.2 93.9 1
1993 99.9 100.5 100 96.3 95.2 1
1994 99.7 101.9 100.5 100 96.3 1
1995 99.3 102.6 101.9 100.5 100 1
1996 99.7 105.4 102.6 101.9 100.5 1
1997 100.4 107.6 105.4 102.6 101.9 1
1998 104.3 110.5 107.6 105.4 102.6 1
1999 107.3 114 110.5 107.6 105.4 1
PDL01 PDL02 Y ESTIM e e2

1
207.3 93.2 69.1324923 -3.732492269 13.9314985 207.3
216 96.6 70.4663234 -2.566323385 6.58601572 93.2
225 101.2 71.9701494 -2.570149376 6.60566781
234.1 105.5 73.4504743 -1.550474268 2.40397046
242.5 111.2 75.0151408 -1.215140793 1.47656715
250.4 115.8 76.3995532 -0.09955317 0.00991083 37
256.5 121.7 77.7374413 -0.337441272 0.11386661 X'X 11996.1
261.5 125.2 78.6810607 0.218939291 0.04793441 5698.4
268 126.6 79.5470187 0.852981279 0.72757706
274.8 126.2 80.2394028 2.460597206 6.05453861
283.6 129.4 81.5611851 2.938814895 8.63663299
289.8 138.8 83.3107593 0.189240726 0.03581205 0.95563972
295.7 143.1 84.4436991 -0.043699109 0.00190961 X'X INV -0.0137723
302 143.7 85.1963272 1.603672796 2.57176644 0.02296344
307.3 142.4 85.6228039 2.277196113 5.18562214
314.8 149.4 87.2386482 2.261351817 5.11371204
319.7 156.1 88.5378852 1.162114761 1.35051072
321.6 159.9 89.1793323 0.320667717 0.10282778 3285.2
323.8 160.1 89.4410641 0.058935902 0.00347344 X'Y 1089297.18
324.8 160.1 89.5496219 1.350378072 1.82352094 518153.33
328.7 158.2 89.7554039 1.244596115 1.54901949
335.3 158.7 90.529147 0.770852964 0.59421429
342 159.3 91.3251983 1.374801737 1.89007982 35.9549161
351.7 164.8 93.0080854 2.79191462 7.79478724 B ESTIMADO 0.10855783
359 170.8 94.4876952 1.812304827 3.28444879 0.11452294
365 175.8 95.7116568 1.588343153 2.52283397
370.2 180.8 96.8487723 -0.948772257 0.9001688
374 181.6 97.3529104 -0.852910364 0.72745609 e' -3.7324923
378.4 183.6 98.0596107 -0.559610695 0.31316413
385.4 183 98.7508017 1.249198254 1.56049628 e'e 122.508957
392 186.2 99.8337568 0.06624317 0.00438816
398.7 190.7 101.076448 -1.376447517 1.89460777 σ2 3.71239265
405 197.9 102.584927 -3.284927005 10.7907454
410.4 197.5 103.12533 -3.425330114 11.7328864
417.5 198.8 104.044971 -3.644970531 13.2858102 3.54770986
426.1 200.1 105.127448 -0.827447694 0.68466969 var-covar B est -0.0511281
437.5 204.4 106.857456 0.442544403 0.19584555 0.08524932
-1.42914E-09 122.508957
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
216 225 234.1 242.5 250.4 256.5 261.5 268
96.6 101.2 105.5 111.2 115.8 121.7 125.2 126.6

11996.1 5698.4
4034869.99 1920677.91
1920677.91 914779.26

-0.0137723 0.02296344
0.0006532 -0.0012857
-0.0012857 0.00255745

b0 -0.0059651
b1 0.10855783
b2 0.22308077
b3 0.33760371

-2.5663234 -2.5701494 -1.5504743 -1.2151408 -0.0995532 -0.3374413 0.21893929 0.85298128

-0.0511281 0.08524932
0.00242493 -0.0047729
-0.0047729 0.00949426
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
274.8 283.6 289.8 295.7 302 307.3 314.8 319.7
126.2 129.4 138.8 143.1 143.7 142.4 149.4 156.1

2.46059721 2.93881489 0.18924073 -0.0436991 1.6036728 2.27719611 2.26135182 1.16211476

 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
321.6 323.8 324.8 328.7 335.3 342 351.7 359
159.9 160.1 160.1 158.2 158.7 159.3 164.8 170.8

0.32066772 0.0589359 1.35037807 1.24459612 0.77085296 1.37480174 2.79191462 1.81230483

 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
365 370.2 374 378.4 385.4 392 398.7 405
175.8 180.8 181.6 183.6 183 186.2 190.7 197.9

1.58834315 -0.9487723 -0.8529104 -0.5596107 1.24919825 0.06624317 -1.3764475 -3.284927

 1 1 1 1
410.4 417.5 426.1 437.5
197.5 198.8 200.1 204.4

-3.4253301 -3.6449705 -0.8274477 0.4425444

 Y X Xt-1 Xt-2 Xt-3 PDL0 = Zt0
1960 60 48.8
1961 61.8 50.6 48.8
1962 63.9 52.9 50.6 48.8
1963 65.4 55 52.9 50.6 48.8 528.7
1964 67.9 57.5 55 52.9 50.6 551.4
1965 69.4 59.6 57.5 55 52.9 573.8
1966 71.9 62 59.6 57.5 55 596.8
1967 73.8 63.4 62 59.6 57.5 616.3
1968 76.3 65.4 63.4 62 59.6 635.4
1969 77.4 65.7 65.4 63.4 62 647.8
1970 78.9 67 65.7 65.4 63.4 659.3
1971 80.4 69.9 67 65.7 65.4 677.4
1972 82.7 72.2 69.9 67 65.7 698.2
1973 84.5 74.5 72.2 69.9 67 721.4
1974 83.5 73.2 74.5 72.2 69.9 730.6
1975 84.4 75.8 73.2 74.5 72.2 744
1976 86.8 78.5 75.8 73.2 74.5 762.3
1977 87.9 79.8 78.5 75.8 73.2 779.5
1978 89.5 80.7 79.8 78.5 75.8 795
1979 89.7 80.7 80.7 79.8 78.5 803
1980 89.5 80.4 80.7 80.7 79.8 804.9
1981 89.5 82 80.4 80.7 80.7 811.3
1982 90.9 81.7 82 80.4 80.7 814.3
1983 91 84.6 81.7 82 80.4 827.9
1984 91.3 87 84.6 81.7 82 847.2
1985 92.7 88.7 87 84.6 81.7 866.7
1986 95.8 91.4 88.7 87 84.6 890.3
1987 96.3 91.9 91.4 88.7 87 906.2
1988 97.3 93 91.9 91.4 88.7 919.2
1989 95.9 93.9 93 91.9 91.4 929.8
1990 96.5 95.2 93.9 93 91.9 940.4
1991 97.5 96.3 95.2 93.9 93 951.6
1992 100 100 96.3 95.2 93.9 973.2
1993 99.9 100.5 100 96.3 95.2 989.8
1994 99.7 101.9 100.5 100 96.3 1005.4
1995 99.3 102.6 101.9 100.5 100 1017.1
1996 99.7 105.4 102.6 101.9 100.5 1033.7
1997 100.4 107.6 105.4 102.6 101.9 1053.7
1998 104.3 110.5 107.6 105.4 102.6 1078.2
1999 107.3 114 110.5 107.6 105.4 1108.1
 Ŷ e e2

69.5233281 -4.1233281 17.0018344 1 528.7

71.0316611 -3.1316611 9.8073013 1 551.4 X'
72.5200602 -3.1200602 9.73477579 1 573.8
74.0483272 -2.1483272 4.61530962 1 596.8
75.3440318 -1.5440318 2.38403406 1 616.3 X'X
76.6131578 -0.3131578 0.0980678 1 635.4
77.437093 -0.037093 0.00137589 1 647.8
78.2012265 0.69877352 0.48828443 1 659.3 INV- X'X'
79.4039061 0.99609388 0.99220302 1 677.4
80.785991 1.91400899 3.66343041 1 698.2
82.3275472 2.17245276 4.71955101 1 721.4 X'Y
82.938854 0.56114598 0.31488482 1 730.6
83.8292356 0.57076437 0.32577197 1 744
85.0452045 1.75479545 3.07930708 1 762.3 α
86.1880824 1.71191756 2.93066174 1 779.5 δ
87.2180015 2.28199853 5.20751731 1 795
87.7495726 1.95042742 3.80416713 1 803
87.8758207 1.62417928 2.63795834 1 804.9 e'
88.3010776 1.19892239 1.4374149 1 811.3
88.5004168 2.39958323 5.75799966 1 814.3 e'e
89.4040877 1.59591234 2.54693618 1 827.9
90.686503 0.61349703 0.3763786 1 847.2 σ2
91.9822076 0.71779244 0.51522599 1 866.7
93.5503423 2.24965766 5.0609596 1 890.3 var covar
94.6068399 1.69316008 2.86679105 1 906.2
95.470643 1.82935702 3.34654711 1 919.2
96.1749747 -0.2749747 0.07561109 1 929.8
96.8793064 -0.3793064 0.14387337 1 940.4
97.623506 -0.123506 0.01525373 1 951.6
99.058748 0.94125201 0.88595536 1 973.2
100.161758 -0.261758 0.06851727 1 989.8
101.198322 -1.4983217 2.24496795 1 1005.4
101.975744 -2.6757445 7.15960843 1 1017.1
103.078755 -3.3787545 11.4159821 1 1033.7
104.407682 -4.0076823 16.0615174 1 1053.7
106.035619 -1.7356188 3.01237272 1 1078.2
108.022366 -0.7223659 0.52181244 1 1108.1
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
528.7 551.4 573.8 596.8 616.3 635.4 647.8 659.3

37 30289.9
30289.9 25704541.71

0.765243845 -0.000901753
-0.00090175 1.101518E-06

3285.2
2749738.21 B0 0.26578556
B1 0.19933917
34.39312222 B2 0.13289278
0.066446389 B3 0.06644639
0.66446389

-4.12332808 -3.131661108 -3.1200602 -2.1483272 -1.5440318 -0.3131578 -0.037093 0.69877352

135.3201611

4.100610942

3.137967283 -0.00369774
-0.00369774 4.516898E-06
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
677.4 698.2 721.4 730.6 744 762.3 779.5 795

0.99609388 1.91400899 2.17245276 0.56114598 0.57076437 1.75479545 1.71191756 2.28199853

 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
803 804.9 811.3 814.3 827.9 847.2 866.7 890.3

1.95042742 1.62417928 1.19892239 2.39958323 1.59591234 0.61349703 0.71779244 2.24965766

 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
906.2 919.2 929.8 940.4 951.6 973.2 989.8 1005.4

1.69316008 1.82935702 -0.2749747 -0.3793064 -0.123506 0.94125201 -0.261758 -1.4983217

 1 1 1 1 1
1017.1 1033.7 1053.7 1078.2 1108.1

-2.6757445 -3.3787545 -4.0076823 -1.7356188 -0.7223659

 Y X Xt-1 Xt-2 Xt-3 Xt-4
1960 60 48.8
1961 61.8 50.6 48.8
1962 63.9 52.9 50.6 48.8
1963 65.4 55 52.9 50.6 48.8
1964 67.9 57.5 55 52.9 50.6 48.8
1965 69.4 59.6 57.5 55 52.9 50.6
1966 71.9 62 59.6 57.5 55 52.9
1967 73.8 63.4 62 59.6 57.5 55
1968 76.3 65.4 63.4 62 59.6 57.5
1969 77.4 65.7 65.4 63.4 62 59.6
1970 78.9 67 65.7 65.4 63.4 62
1971 80.4 69.9 67 65.7 65.4 63.4
1972 82.7 72.2 69.9 67 65.7 65.4
1973 84.5 74.5 72.2 69.9 67 65.7
1974 83.5 73.2 74.5 72.2 69.9 67
1975 84.4 75.8 73.2 74.5 72.2 69.9
1976 86.8 78.5 75.8 73.2 74.5 72.2
1977 87.9 79.8 78.5 75.8 73.2 74.5
1978 89.5 80.7 79.8 78.5 75.8 73.2
1979 89.7 80.7 80.7 79.8 78.5 75.8
1980 89.5 80.4 80.7 80.7 79.8 78.5
1981 89.5 82 80.4 80.7 80.7 79.8
1982 90.9 81.7 82 80.4 80.7 80.7
1983 91 84.6 81.7 82 80.4 80.7
1984 91.3 87 84.6 81.7 82 80.4
1985 92.7 88.7 87 84.6 81.7 82
1986 95.8 91.4 88.7 87 84.6 81.7
1987 96.3 91.9 91.4 88.7 87 84.6
1988 97.3 93 91.9 91.4 88.7 87
1989 95.9 93.9 93 91.9 91.4 88.7
1990 96.5 95.2 93.9 93 91.9 91.4
1991 97.5 96.3 95.2 93.9 93 91.9
1992 100 100 96.3 95.2 93.9 93
1993 99.9 100.5 100 96.3 95.2 93.9
1994 99.7 101.9 100.5 100 96.3 95.2
1995 99.3 102.6 101.9 100.5 100 96.3
1996 99.7 105.4 102.6 101.9 100.5 100
1997 100.4 107.6 105.4 102.6 101.9 100.5
1998 104.3 110.5 107.6 105.4 102.6 101.9
1999 107.3 114 110.5 107.6 105.4 102.6
z0

211.4 1 211.4 X' 1 1

220.4 1 220.4 211.4 220.4
229.6 1 229.6
238.7 1 238.7 X'X 36 11672.2
247 1 247 11672.2 3915685.62
254.2 1 254.2
259.9 1 259.9 INV- X'X' 0.828816609 -0.002470605
263.8 1 263.8 -0.00247061 0.00000762
269.6 1 269.6
279 1 279 X'Y 3219.8
288.8 1 288.8 1065302.77
294.4 1 294.4
296.7 1 296.7 α 36.68116288
303.3 1 303.3 δ 0.162718094
312.6 1 312.6
318.8 1 318.8
321.9 1 321.9
322.5 1 322.5
323.5 1 323.5
326.1 1 326.1
330 1 330
337.9 1 337.9
347.3 1 347.3
355.8 1 355.8
363.4 1 363.4
368.2 1 368.2
371.8 1 371.8
376 1 376
380.6 1 380.6
387.8 1 387.8
396.8 1 396.8
402.9 1 402.9
406.9 1 406.9
412.5 1 412.5
421 1 421
431.1 1 431.1
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
229.6 238.7 247 254.2 259.9 263.8 269.6 279

B0 0
B1 0.16271809
B2 0.32543619
B3 0.16271809
B4 0
0.65087238
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
288.8 294.4 296.7 303.3 312.6 318.8 321.9 322.5
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
323.5 326.1 330 337.9 347.3 355.8 363.4 368.2
 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
371.8 376 380.6 387.8 396.8 402.9 406.9 412.5
 1 1
421 431.1