To: Interested Parties

From: Ben Tulchin and Ben Krompak, Tulchin Research

May 9, 2018

▐ Polling Finds Democrat Harley Rouda Well Positioned in CA-48 Against Dana
Rohrbacher But Faces Top 2 Threat

Tulchin Research recently conducted a poll among likely June 2018 primary voters in
California’s 48th Congressional District. Our poll finds controversial Republican Congressman
Dana Rohrabacher has a clear path through the June primary but in a tenuous position for an
incumbent member of the House ahead of the fall campaign. Rohrabacher leads the open
primary field with an anemic 30 percent of the vote while Democrats Harley Rouda and Hans
Keirstead and Republican Scott Baugh are in a 3-way tie for 2nd place and competing for the
opportunity to face Rohrabacher in November. The poll finds that Rouda, a technology
entrepreneur and first-time candidate, has kept pace with Keirstead despite being outspent by a
2-to-1 margin to this point, and has significant room left to grow as he moves into a clear second
place in our poll after voters learn more about the candidates. Rouda currently has a cash-on-
hand advantage over Keirstead and provided he has sufficient resources with which to deliver
his message to voters in the remaining weeks of the campaign, Democrats can stop Scott
Baugh’s candidacy in June and ensure that a Democrat advances to the general election
against the vulnerable incumbent.

Rohrabacher Underperforms in Crowded Open Primary as Rouda, Keirstead, and

Baugh Tie for Second
Our poll finds incumbent Republican Dana Rohrabacher leading the open primary field but in a
relatively weak position as he is currently attracting just 30 percent of the vote. Competing for
second place and the opportunity to face Rohrabacher in November are Harley Rouda, Hans
Keirstead, and Scott Baugh – each of whom is currently attracting 13 percent of the vote. All
other candidates are currently receiving single-digit support while 18 percent of primary voters
remain undecided.
June 2018 Primary Election:
California’s 48th Congressional District
“If the June primary election for U.S. Congress were held today,
whom would you vote for if the candidates were…”
Dana Rohrabacher (R) 30%
Harley Rouda (D) 13%
Hans Keirstead (D) 13%
Scott Baugh (R) 13%
Omar Siddiqui (D) 4%
Laura Oatman (D) 4%
John Gabbard (R) 2%
Shastina Sandman (R) 2%
Rachel Payne (D) 1%
Kevin Kensinger (NPP) 1%

220 Sansome Street, Suite 1360 | San Francisco, CA 94104 | (415) 576-1072
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Tulchin Research Memo – California’s 48 Congressional District
2

Undecided 18%

Rouda Moves Into Clear Second Place in Informed Vote

To simulate a campaign, we provided respondents with positive information about each of the
leading candidates (Rouda, Rohrabacher, Baugh, Keirstead and Siddiqui) and then re-asked
the primary horserace question. After voters learn more about the candidates, Harley Rouda
makes significant inroads and moves into a clear second place while others remain stuck.
Rouda attracts 22 percent of the vote in the informed ballot, behind Rohrabacher who remains
at 30 percent, while Hans Keirstead (13%) fails to grow his support and Scott Baugh gains just
one point (14%).

June 2018 Primary Election: California’s 48th Congressional District

“If the June primary election for U.S.
INFORMED INFORMED VOTE
Congress were held today, whom would you INITIAL VOTE VOTE - INITIAL VOTE
vote for if the candidates were…”
Dana Rohrabacher (R) 30% 30% +0
Harley Rouda (D) 13% 22% +9
Hans Keirstead (D) 13% 13% +0
Scott Baugh (R) 13% 14% +1
Omar Siddiqui (D) 4% 4% +0
Laura Oatman (D) 4% 1% -3
John Gabbard (R) 2% 2% +0
Shastina Sandman (R) 2% 1% -1
Rachel Payne (D) 1% 1% +0
Kevin Kensinger (NPP) 1% 2% +1
Undecided 18% 12% -6

In conclusion, our research demonstrates that Harley Rouda has an excellent opportunity to
clear the June primary field and advance to the general election against Dana Rohrabacher
assuming he has the necessary resources to communicate to voters. Rouda has kept pace with
Keirstead despite being outspent to this point and has a cash-on-hand advantage in the final
weeks of the primary race. If Rouda can realize his potential and Republican Scott Baugh’s
growth can be limited or diverted to another Republican candidate, Democrats can avoid a
Republican-only general election scenario and will have an excellent chance to turn this seat
from red to blue in November.

Survey Methodology: From May 1-5, 2018, Tulchin Research conducted survey research among 400
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likely June 2018 primary election voters in California’s 48 Congressional District using live professional
interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones as well as collecting data via online survey. The
margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.9 percentage points.