ref2017.

d120816a 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Report Annual Energy Outlook 2017

Scenario ref2017 Reference case
Datekey d120816a
Release Date January 2017

1. Total Energy Supply, Disposition, and Price Summary

(quadrillion Btu, unless otherwise noted)

Supply, Disposition, and Prices 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Production
Crude Oil and Lease Condensate 19.69 18.28 18.22 19.51 20.27 20.67
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 4.47 4.78 5.17 5.60 5.99 6.22
Dry Natural Gas 27.92 27.40 28.77 30.07 31.07 31.81
Coal 1/ 16.99 15.18 15.30 15.45 16.20 16.72
Nuclear / Uranium 2/ 8.34 8.34 8.28 8.15 8.05 7.97
Conventional Hydroelectric Power 2.36 2.50 2.51 2.71 2.91 2.94
Biomass 3/ 4.30 4.20 4.22 4.30 4.36 4.38
Other Renewable Energy 4/ 2.64 3.04 3.34 3.58 3.72 4.20
Other 5/ 0.46 0.92 1.30 0.85 0.88 0.88
Total 87.16 84.64 87.12 90.22 93.44 95.79

Imports
Crude Oil 16.33 17.49 17.71 17.17 16.68 16.18
Petroleum and Other Liquids 6/ 4.25 4.18 4.25 4.36 4.27 4.20
Natural Gas 7/ 2.79 3.08 2.80 2.62 2.39 2.21
Other 8/ 0.47 0.45 0.37 0.40 0.40 0.35
Total 23.83 25.20 25.12 24.55 23.75 22.93

Exports
Petroleum and Other Liquids 9/ 9.17 10.19 10.50 11.33 11.80 11.97
Natural Gas 10/ 1.80 2.09 2.46 3.37 4.43 5.57
Coal 1.96 1.46 1.38 1.47 1.53 1.59
Total 12.93 13.74 14.34 16.17 17.75 19.13

Discrepancy 11/ 1.14 -0.37 0.58 0.03 -0.04 -0.07

Consumption
Petroleum and Other Liquids 12/ 36.57 36.89 37.21 37.80 37.98 37.85
 Natural Gas 28.19 28.59 28.77 29.02 28.76 28.22
Coal 13/ 15.47 13.93 14.12 14.13 14.82 15.24
Nuclear / Uranium 2/ 8.34 8.34 8.28 8.15 8.05 7.97
Conventional Hydroelectric Power 2.36 2.50 2.51 2.71 2.91 2.94
Biomass 14/ 2.92 2.76 2.74 2.77 2.81 2.82
Other Renewable Energy 4/ 2.64 3.04 3.34 3.58 3.72 4.20
Other 15/ 0.45 0.42 0.34 0.42 0.42 0.42
Total 96.93 96.47 97.31 98.57 99.47 99.66

Prices (2016 dollars per unit)

Brent Spot Price (dollars per barrel) 53.06 43.43 49.91 63.04 70.37 74.82
West Texas Intermediate Spot Price (dollars per barrel) 49.35 42.78 48.94 57.43 64.38 68.85
Natural Gas at Henry Hub (dollars per mmBtu) 2.66 2.50 3.00 3.40 3.96 4.51
Coal, Minemouth (dollars per ton) 16/ 34.16 33.92 33.65 33.46 33.82 34.51
Coal, Minemouth (dollars per million Btu) 16/ 1.72 1.69 1.69 1.69 1.71 1.73
Coal, Delivered (dollars per million Btu) 17/ 2.45 2.34 2.38 2.42 2.46 2.49
Electricity (cents per kilowatthour) 10.6 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.4 10.5

Prices (nominal dollars per unit)

Brent Spot Price (dollars per barrel) 52.32 43.43 50.99 65.67 74.85 81.35
West Texas Intermediate Spot Price (dollars per barrel) 48.67 42.78 49.99 59.83 68.48 74.86
Natural Gas at Henry Hub (dollars per mmBtu) 2.62 2.50 3.06 3.55 4.22 4.90
Coal, Minemouth (dollars per ton) 16/ 33.68 33.92 34.37 34.85 35.97 37.52
Coal, Minemouth (dollars per million Btu) 16/ 1.70 1.69 1.73 1.76 1.82 1.88
Coal, Delivered (dollars per million Btu) 17/ 2.42 2.34 2.43 2.52 2.61 2.71
Electricity (cents per kilowatthour) 10.4 10.3 10.6 10.7 11.0 11.4

1/ Includes waste coal.

2/ These values represent the energy obtained from uranium when it is used in light water reactors. The total energy content of uranium
is much larger, but alternative processes are required to take advantage of it.
3/ Includes grid-connected electricity from wood and wood waste; biomass, such as corn, used for liquid fuels production; and non-electric
energy demand from wood. Refer to Table 17 for details.
4/ Includes grid-connected electricity from landfill gas; biogenic municipal waste; wind; photovoltaic and solar thermal sources; and
non-electric energy from renewable sources, such as active and passive solar systems. Excludes electricity imports using renewable sources
and nonmarketed renewable energy. See Table 17 for selected nonmarketed residential and commercial renewable energy data.
5/ Includes non-biogenic municipal waste, hydrogen, methanol, and some domestic inputs to refineries.
6/ Includes imports of finished petroleum products, unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, blending components, and renewable fuels such as ethanol.
7/ Includes imports of liquefied natural gas that are later re-exported.
8/ Includes coal, coal coke (net), and electricity (net). Excludes imports of fuel used in nuclear power plants.
9/ Includes crude oil, petroleum products, ethanol, and biodiesel.
10/ Includes re-exported liquefied natural gas.
11/ Balancing item. Includes unaccounted for supply, losses, gains, and net storage withdrawals.
 12/ Estimated consumption. Includes petroleum-derived fuels and non-petroleum-derived fuels, such as ethanol and biodiesel, and coal-based
synthetic liquids. Petroleum coke, which is a solid, is included. Also included are hydrocarbon gas liquids and crude oil consumed as a fuel.
Refer to Table 17 for detailed renewable liquid fuels consumption.
13/ Excludes coal converted to coal-based synthetic liquids and natural gas.
14/ Includes grid-connected electricity from wood and wood waste, non-electric energy from wood, and biofuels heat and coproducts used in the
production of liquid fuels, but excludes the energy content of the liquid fuels.
15/ Includes non-biogenic municipal waste, hydrogen, and net electricity imports.
16/ Includes reported prices for both open market and captive mines. Prices weighted by production, which differs from average minemouth prices
published in EIA data reports where it is weighted by reported sales.
17/ Prices weighted by consumption; weighted average excludes export free-alongside-ship (f.a.s.) prices.
Btu = British thermal unit.
MmBtu = Million Btu.
- - = Not applicable.
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Data for 2015
are model results and may differ from official EIA data reports.
Sources: 2015 natural gas supply values: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Natural Gas
Monthly, December 2015. 2015 coal minemouth and delivered coal prices: EIA, Annual Coal Report 2013.
2015 petroleum supply values: EIA, Petroleum Supply Annual 2015. 2015 crude oil
spot prices and natural gas spot price at Henry Hub: Thomson Reuters. Other 2015 coal values: EIA, Quarterly
Coal Report, October-December 2015. Other 2015 values: EIA, Monthly Energy Review, October 2016.
2016: EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2016 and EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run ref2017.d120816a.
Projections: EIA, AEO2017 National Energy Modeling System run ref2017.d120816a.
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

20.98 21.22 21.55 21.61 21.69 21.99 22.01 22.02 22.04 22.02 21.91 21.76
6.42 6.39 6.37 6.39 6.45 6.47 6.43 6.41 6.42 6.44 6.36 6.34
31.99 32.28 32.80 33.48 34.15 34.75 35.11 35.45 35.79 36.06 36.11 36.41
16.51 16.09 15.89 15.48 15.06 14.62 14.20 13.83 13.49 13.24 13.26 13.18
8.08 8.11 8.14 8.15 8.09 8.00 8.01 8.03 8.04 8.03 8.02 7.98
2.94 2.94 2.94 2.95 2.95 2.96 2.96 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97
4.38 4.41 4.43 4.45 4.45 4.42 4.46 4.46 4.46 4.45 4.42 4.40
4.83 5.64 6.07 6.17 6.20 6.24 6.31 6.37 6.51 6.66 6.77 6.83
0.89 0.93 1.03 1.07 1.03 0.88 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.86
97.01 98.01 99.22 99.76 100.06 100.33 100.34 100.39 100.56 100.73 100.67 100.73

16.39 16.55 16.43 16.54 16.63 16.51 16.22 15.87 16.15 16.41 16.36 16.47
4.18 4.25 4.29 4.29 4.26 4.20 4.22 4.10 4.05 4.03 4.03 4.02
2.08 1.95 1.83 1.78 1.74 1.72 1.64 1.60 1.52 1.48 1.45 1.44
0.35 0.34 0.32 0.30 0.29 0.27 0.26 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.21
23.00 23.09 22.86 22.91 22.93 22.70 22.34 21.82 21.95 22.15 22.07 22.14

12.69 13.22 13.65 14.12 14.60 14.88 14.82 14.58 15.01 15.41 15.29 15.35
5.74 5.91 6.14 6.32 6.47 6.61 6.74 6.80 6.81 6.86 6.91 6.97
1.65 1.72 1.73 1.65 1.64 1.64 1.65 1.66 1.68 1.73 1.78 1.82
20.08 20.85 21.52 22.09 22.70 23.13 23.21 23.04 23.50 24.00 23.98 24.14

-0.04 -0.03 -0.01 0.02 0.05 0.07 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.16

37.81 37.76 37.62 37.38 37.03 36.70 36.40 36.15 35.96 35.81 35.66 35.53
 28.09 28.07 28.23 28.67 29.14 29.57 29.71 29.94 30.19 30.36 30.33 30.56
14.94 14.45 14.22 13.88 13.47 13.01 12.57 12.19 11.82 11.51 11.48 11.35
8.08 8.11 8.14 8.15 8.09 8.00 8.01 8.03 8.04 8.03 8.02 7.98
2.94 2.94 2.94 2.95 2.95 2.96 2.96 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97
2.84 2.86 2.89 2.91 2.91 2.90 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.94 2.93 2.92
4.83 5.64 6.07 6.17 6.20 6.24 6.31 6.37 6.51 6.66 6.77 6.83
0.44 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.45 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.43
99.97 100.28 100.57 100.56 100.24 99.83 99.36 99.04 98.87 98.73 98.61 98.57

78.15 80.71 82.28 83.72 86.23 88.55 90.00 90.68 92.07 94.52 96.81 99.53
71.85 74.60 76.01 77.54 80.08 82.36 83.57 84.07 85.05 87.59 89.98 92.71
4.39 4.26 4.28 4.41 4.51 4.64 4.75 4.86 4.96 5.00 5.11 5.11
34.46 35.18 35.01 34.87 34.67 34.53 34.26 33.94 33.67 34.29 34.60 34.96
1.73 1.76 1.76 1.76 1.75 1.74 1.74 1.72 1.71 1.74 1.74 1.76
2.50 2.52 2.53 2.53 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.54
10.6 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4

86.82 91.68 95.49 99.16 104.34 109.54 113.88 117.29 121.72 127.70 133.62 140.24
79.82 84.73 88.22 91.84 96.90 101.88 105.75 108.74 112.43 118.33 124.20 130.63
4.88 4.83 4.97 5.23 5.45 5.74 6.01 6.29 6.56 6.76 7.05 7.20
38.29 39.97 40.64 41.30 41.95 42.71 43.35 43.90 44.52 46.32 47.76 49.25
1.93 2.00 2.04 2.08 2.11 2.16 2.20 2.23 2.27 2.34 2.41 2.47
2.78 2.86 2.94 3.00 3.07 3.15 3.22 3.29 3.35 3.43 3.50 3.58
11.8 12.4 12.8 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.8 16.1

ntent of uranium

n; and non-electric

enewable sources

ble fuels such as ethanol.

odiesel, and coal-based
nsumed as a fuel.

nd coproducts used in the

average minemouth prices

 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044

2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044

21.45 21.36 21.37 21.41 21.53 21.62 21.60 21.56 21.52 21.46 21.42 21.33
6.35 6.35 6.36 6.38 6.38 6.40 6.34 6.36 6.34 6.34 6.35 6.36
36.66 37.16 37.73 37.94 38.29 38.58 38.83 38.98 39.22 39.43 39.59 39.86
13.26 13.01 12.88 12.95 12.82 12.70 12.63 12.59 12.63 12.64 12.69 12.61
7.96 7.81 7.54 7.49 7.39 7.35 7.32 7.34 7.27 7.21 7.15 7.04
2.98 2.98 2.98 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
4.41 4.41 4.41 4.42 4.44 4.45 4.46 4.48 4.49 4.50 4.51 4.53
6.99 7.10 7.20 7.41 7.50 7.66 7.83 8.04 8.20 8.37 8.59 8.79
0.86 0.87 0.87 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.91
100.91 101.05 101.36 101.87 102.23 102.65 102.91 103.24 103.56 103.85 104.20 104.43

16.52 16.74 16.83 16.87 16.95 16.53 16.90 17.12 17.05 17.26 17.24 17.54
3.98 3.97 3.96 3.95 3.91 3.88 3.92 3.94 3.79 3.78 3.76 3.76
1.42 1.40 1.36 1.32 1.30 1.31 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.31 1.31 1.31
0.20 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18
22.12 22.31 22.34 22.34 22.35 21.91 22.31 22.55 22.33 22.54 22.49 22.79

15.11 15.22 15.27 15.32 15.39 14.92 15.08 15.16 14.75 14.71 14.40 14.39
7.04 7.10 7.14 7.13 7.12 7.11 7.09 7.07 7.04 7.01 6.99 6.96
1.94 1.84 1.89 1.97 1.98 2.00 2.01 2.03 2.15 2.23 2.32 2.33
24.09 24.16 24.30 24.43 24.49 24.02 24.18 24.26 23.94 23.95 23.71 23.68

0.17 0.18 0.19 0.17 0.18 0.17 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16

35.46 35.49 35.54 35.60 35.70 35.84 36.02 36.16 36.29 36.47 36.69 36.92
 30.71 31.12 31.61 31.78 32.13 32.43 32.71 32.87 33.14 33.37 33.56 33.86
11.31 11.15 10.97 10.96 10.82 10.69 10.61 10.55 10.46 10.39 10.36 10.27
7.96 7.81 7.54 7.49 7.39 7.35 7.32 7.34 7.27 7.21 7.15 7.04
2.98 2.98 2.98 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 2.99 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
2.92 2.92 2.93 2.94 2.96 2.97 2.98 3.00 3.00 3.01 3.03 3.05
6.99 7.10 7.20 7.41 7.50 7.66 7.83 8.04 8.20 8.37 8.59 8.79
0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.44
98.77 99.01 99.21 99.61 99.92 100.37 100.89 101.38 101.80 102.27 102.82 103.37

99.65 101.45 102.15 104.99 105.52 106.67 108.39 109.37 110.04 110.24 110.84 111.38
92.85 94.83 95.58 98.47 98.97 100.15 101.87 102.86 103.52 103.77 104.36 104.94
5.03 5.00 5.09 5.07 5.07 5.05 5.08 5.07 5.09 5.18 5.31 5.36
35.71 36.10 36.52 37.00 37.14 37.38 37.59 37.85 38.23 38.77 39.15 39.45
1.78 1.80 1.82 1.84 1.85 1.85 1.86 1.87 1.89 1.91 1.92 1.94
2.54 2.55 2.55 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.58 2.58 2.57 2.57 2.57
11.4 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.4 11.4

143.23 148.65 152.48 159.67 163.45 168.35 174.34 179.35 184.07 188.16 193.14 198.22
133.46 138.94 142.68 149.76 153.31 158.05 163.86 168.69 173.16 177.12 181.86 186.76
7.23 7.33 7.60 7.71 7.86 7.98 8.17 8.31 8.51 8.84 9.25 9.54
51.33 52.89 54.52 56.27 57.53 58.99 60.46 62.08 63.95 66.17 68.23 70.21
2.56 2.64 2.71 2.80 2.86 2.93 3.00 3.07 3.16 3.25 3.35 3.44
3.65 3.74 3.81 3.90 3.98 4.06 4.14 4.23 4.31 4.39 4.49 4.58
16.3 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.3
 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050

2016-
2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2050

21.19 21.16 21.02 20.85 20.63 20.53 0.3%

6.36 6.34 6.33 6.27 6.28 6.29 0.8%
40.16 40.42 40.72 40.93 41.15 41.61 1.2%
12.44 12.35 12.24 12.19 12.13 11.99 -0.7%
6.91 6.80 6.62 6.54 6.51 6.36 -0.8%
3.00 3.01 3.01 3.01 3.01 3.02 0.6%
4.55 4.56 4.58 4.59 4.58 4.54 0.2%
8.92 9.07 9.27 9.45 9.67 9.73 3.5%
0.91 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.0%
104.45 104.63 104.71 104.74 104.89 104.98 0.6%

17.82 18.19 18.26 18.33 18.52 18.87 0.2%

3.78 3.77 3.77 3.77 3.75 3.75 -0.3%
1.31 1.31 1.31 1.30 1.29 1.29 -2.5%
0.18 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 -2.7%
23.09 23.45 23.51 23.57 23.74 24.08 -0.1%

14.33 14.39 14.07 13.63 13.28 13.17 0.8%

6.93 6.91 6.90 6.89 6.90 6.88 3.6%
2.26 2.21 2.18 2.17 2.13 2.13 1.1%
23.52 23.52 23.15 22.68 22.31 22.17 1.4%

0.17 0.18 0.17 0.19 0.20 0.20 --

37.15 37.39 37.65 37.90 38.20 38.54 0.1%

 34.18 34.46 34.77 34.98 35.18 35.65 0.7%
10.17 10.12 10.05 10.01 9.99 9.85 -1.0%
6.91 6.80 6.62 6.54 6.51 6.36 -0.8%
3.00 3.01 3.01 3.01 3.01 3.02 0.6%
3.07 3.08 3.09 3.11 3.11 3.10 0.3%
8.92 9.07 9.27 9.45 9.67 9.73 3.5%
0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.2%
103.84 104.38 104.90 105.44 106.12 106.70 0.3%

112.01 112.97 114.09 114.33 115.78 116.80 3.0%

105.60 106.58 107.69 107.92 109.37 110.35 2.8%
5.43 5.49 5.57 5.69 5.75 5.83 2.5%
39.47 39.73 39.98 39.78 39.72 40.06 0.5%
1.94 1.95 1.96 1.95 1.95 1.96 0.4%
2.57 2.56 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 0.3%
11.4 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.6 11.6 0.4%

203.65 209.86 216.63 221.81 229.46 236.39 5.1%

192.00 198.00 204.46 209.38 216.77 223.35 5.0%
9.87 10.21 10.58 11.04 11.39 11.80 4.7%
71.77 73.81 75.90 77.16 78.72 81.07 2.6%
3.52 3.62 3.71 3.78 3.86 3.97 2.5%
4.68 4.76 4.87 4.98 5.09 5.20 2.4%
20.8 21.3 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.5 2.5%