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Economic & Real Estate Outlook

By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D.


Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS®

Presentations at REALTOR® University Forum


Washington, DC

May 18, 2018


National Existing Home Sales in 2017
Best in 11 years
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
National Pending Sales Index – No Longer Rising
(seasonally adjusted)
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80

Source: NAR
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
2011 - Jan 3500000

Source: NAR
2011 - Apr
2011 - Jul
2011 - Oct
2012 - Jan
2012 - Apr
2012 - Jul
2012 - Oct
2013 - Jan
2013 - Apr
2013 - Jul
2013 - Oct
2014 - Jan
2014 - Apr
2014 - Jul
2014 - Oct
2015 - Jan
2015 - Apr
2015 - Jul
2015 - Oct
2016 - Jan
2016 - Apr
2016 - Jul
2016 - Oct
2017 - Jan
Inventory of Homes on Market

2017 - Apr
2017 - Jul
2017 - Oct
2018 - Jan
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2012 - Jan
2012 - Mar
2012 - May
2012 - Jul
2012 - Sep
2012 - Nov
2013 - Jan
2013 - Mar
2013 - May
2013 - Jul
2013 - Sep
2013 - Nov
2014 - Jan
2014 - Mar
2014 - May
2014 - Jul
2014 - Sep
2014 - Nov
2015 - Jan
2015 - Mar
2015 - May
2015 - Jul
2015 - Sep
2015 - Nov
30-year Fixed Rate
Mortgage Rates

2016 - Jan
2016 - Mar
2016 - May
2016 - Jul
2016 - Sep
2016 - Nov
2017 - Jan
2017 - Mar
2017 - May
2017 - Jul
2017 - Sep
2017 - Nov
2018 - Jan
2018 - Mar
Forecast
Economic Forecast
2015 2016 2017 2018
Forecast

GDP Growth 2.9% 1.5% 2.5% 2.6%

Job Growth +2.6 +2.0 +2.1 +2.1


million million million million

CPI Inflation 0.3% 1.3% 2.0% 2.5%


Housing Forecast
2015 2016 2017 2018
Forecast
New Home 500,000 560,000 600,000 700,000
Sales
Existing Home 5.3 million 5.4 million 5.5 million 5.6 million
Sales
Median Price + 6.8% +5.1% +6.0% +4.0%
Growth
30-year Rate 3.9% 3.6% 4.0% 4.6%
Thank You !