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18 April 2018
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Buy
Target Price: Rs. 528
MARKET DATA
Page
Key Risks 36
2
Executive Summary
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
5
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
6
Industry Overview
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Other Non-Cola
Carbonates
(Rs 22 bn;
358 mn ltrr)
Indian Soft Drink category - Rs. 603 bn the largest FMCG category
8
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
2000
India vs 1,496 bottles in USA and 537 bottles in
1,616
1,489 1,496 1,490
Brazil
Per Capita Bottles
1500 1,2211,203
9
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Indian per capita Soft Drink consumption is 1/20 th of Opportunities for increasing Per Capita Consumption
USA, 1/10th of Kuwait, 1/8th of Thailand and Thrust on raising consumer disposable incomes especially in
Phillipines and 1/3rd of Malaysia rural areas
Focus on expanding distribution network
Low Per Capita Consumption in India lower than global
Leverage the Small Pack growth potential
average
Improvement in overall infrastructure facilities with rural at
Lower average disposable income the heart
Hugely under penetrated segment Healthy products pipeline catering to the changing
Price sensitive market consumer taste – a critical success factor
Inadequate infrastructure facilities (roads, electricity etc)
Lack of new product innovations
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
"Market Size of ~ Rs. 603.36bn, Off-Trade Market growth ~17% CAGR (2011-16);
Off-Trade market expected to grow at 16% CAGR over 2016-21E
Soft Drink Industry - Classification by Category 2016 Soft Drink Industry - Classification by Geography 2015
Volume (mn litres) Value (Rs. bn) Volume (mn litres) Value (Rs. bn)
Others; 94 Bottled West
West North North
Juices: mn litres Water: Others 30%
Bottled Water: 30% 36% 37%
1,846mn 1% 4,437mn : Rs. 18bn, 6%
litres; 20% litres; 47% Rs. 70bn; 21%
Carbonates
2,975mn East &
Juices Carbonates East &
litres; 32% North
: Rs. 125bn; : Rs. 115bn; North South East South
38% 35% East 23% 11% 22%
11%
2016 Market Volume : 13,574 mn litres 2016 Market Size : Rs. 603bn (USD 9.28bn)
11
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
100% Juice Juice Drinks (up to 24% Juice) Nectar (25%-99% Juice)
Estm. Value
Target Income Value CAGR
268
300 CY11-16 CAGR : 27.3% Category Fruit Content CAGR
Segment 2011-16
250 CY16-21E CAGR : 24.5% 2016-21E
Rs. Billion
200
150
Juice Drinks <25% Low Mid 26.2% 24.0%
90
72
56
100
49
44
34
34
27
23
20
17
15
12
11
10
50
8
8
6
5
3
0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021E 100% Juice 100% High 29.0% 23.4%
Mango Drinks form a significant share of Juice Drinks Juice Drinks Market Shares
4.10% Juice Drinks Nectar Share by Fruits 100% Juice Juice Drinks
2% 13%
23% 9% Off-Trade Market Share
4.90% 1% 8%
5%
32% Maaza 30.5%
14%
Frooti 20.5%
36%
42%
85% Slice 21.5%
5% 18%
Mango Orange Others
Manpasand Bev 5.0%
Mango Lemon Mango Orange Others
Orange Other Flavours Apple Mixed Fruits Lychee
Apple Mixed Fruits Others 22.5%
Key growth drivers are improving penetration, rising health consciousness and increasing affordability
Source: Company, Axis Securities Research
12
Company Overview
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Unique distinction of being one of the Indian Beverages manufacturer listed on the bourses
Manufacturing plants at Vadodara, Varanasi, Ambala, Dehradun in North and West India
Initiated portfolio diversification from 2014 onwards thus reducing impact of seasonality
Launched Fruits Up in 2 variants premium fruit drink and carbonated drinks
Manpasand ORS to cater to North East market launched with apple and orange flavour with energy replenishing qualities
Commenced marketing of Pure Sip bottled water
Fruits Up carbonated fruit drinks, available in grape, orange and lemon flavors, is similar to Thums Up, Mirinda and Sprite.
‘Siznal’ a healthy vegetable and fruit drink with honey (no added sugar) thereby diversifying its product portfolio to cater to
every customer segment across the price pyramid.
14
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
“Mango Sip” Raised Equity Capital Raised Rs 400 cr New product launched – Jeera Sip
Brand Launched from SPIL through IPO Distribution tie-up with
Incorporated as Inducted Mr. B.M. Vyas Brownfield Capacity Parle-G
Manpasand Agro Food (ex-MD, Amul) to the Board Expansion undertaken Green field expansion at
Setup plant at Varanasi 3 Locations
2013
&
2005 2014 2016
15
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
16
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
17
Product Portfolio Expansion = Reducing Seasonality
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
19
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Mango Sip <Rs. 15 packs are 58% of MANB’s Sales Low Unit Packs (LUPs) with fruit drinks introduce consumers to
13% the brand and also creates multiple opportunities for
19%
consumption. This differentiated strategy provides MANB
14% with healthier options to cola based products of competitors
Samosa Pack : Small Pack : PET Bottle : In 2016, for MANB less than Rs. 10 packs formed 40% to
Rs. 5 (80ml) Rs. 7 (125ml) Rs. 15 (160ml) total revenues thus indicating its focus on small towns and
hinterland i.e. Bharat
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Fruits Up – presence in Fruits Drinks & CSD with multiple SKUs Comparison : Fruits Up Carbonates vs Peers
catering to every consumer segment
Fruit Drink Carbonated Fruit Drink MANB PEPSI COCA-COLA THUMS UP
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
22
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
MANB doubled capacity every two years; FY2013 Manufacturing Plant in proximity to end market
capacity stood at 35,000 cases/day and in FY2017 it
stood at 1,70,000 cases/day
23
Distribution Expansion = Network Growth
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Uttar Pradesh
Rajasthan Assam
Two Tier Distribution Model
Bihar
Manipur
Manpasand Gujarat
Madhya Pradesh Jharkhand
Beverages Ltd West Bengal
Orissa
Maharashtra
Consignee Telangana
Distributors
Agents
Goa Andhra
Karnataka Pradesh
25
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Modern Retail provide visibility in urban centres Celebrity Endorsements – key to brand building
27
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
MANB gained 240 bps value market share from 2.6% in 2014 to Total Juices Segment a 23% value CAGR market over CY16-21E
5% in 2016 attributed to :
400
+75 SKUs for Mango Sip and Fruits Up, amongst the 350
350
largest by any player
300
Rs. Billion
Absence of Maaza and Slice in <200 ml SKU which 250
generates ~40% revenues for MANB 200
150 119
95
Doubling of Capacity over FY15-17 aiding market share 100 59 75
47 59
37
18 21 12 24 15 28 42
gains 50 4 10 6 14 7 9
0
Higher trade margins 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021E
2x Distribution expansion 100% Juice Juice Drinks (up to 24% Juice) Nectar (25%-99% Juice)
Mango dominates fruit based drinks in India Off-Trade Value Market Share in Juice Drinks (CY16)
4.1%
4.9% 1.0%
Others
5.0% 23%
Maaza
31%
Manpasand
Bev
5%
85.0%
Slice Frooti
22% 21%
Mango Lemon Orange Other Flavours Apple
Source : Company; Axis Securities Research
28
Financial Performance
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Volume CAGR ~35% over FY18-FY20E to drive topline Topline growth of 38% CAGR over FY18-20E
Aggressive capacity expansion over FY16-18 (1.8x) to aid
volume CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E
2,500 42% 50%
38% 39%
Growing distribution network at 2x YoY aided by organic 35% 35%
2,000 40%
strategies and Parle Products tie-up to support robust volumes
trajectory.
Rs. Cr
1,500 22% 30%
40% EBITDA CAGR over FY18-20E Operating Profitability to remain strong aided by robust volume growth
400 19.2% 25% MANB to report steady GMs of 37.4% by FY20E in an industry
marked by sharp volatility in RMs like fruit pulp, sugar
21.2% 18.9%
300 19.9% (agri commodities), pre-forms and laminates driven by crude oil.
18.6%
20% The steady GMs are due to diversified RM sourcing and strong
relationships with suppliers
Rs. Cr
200
18.2% 351
246 15%
100 We expect, EBITDA to be Rs. 351 Cr by FY20E a 40% CAGR over
140
110 179 FY18-20E
66
0 10%
FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018E FY2019E FY2020E EBITDA Margin to be 19.2% in FY20E from 18.6% in FY18E a
60bps expansion
EBIDTA EBIDTA Margin (%)
Source : Company; Axis Securities Research
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Rs. Crore
capacity expansion and distribution expansion 100 8.3% 10%
178
Net Profit is estimated to report 41% CAGR over FY18-20E to 122
50 73 90
Rs. 178 Cr 30 50
0 0%
FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018E FY2019E FY2020E
Expect PAT Margin to expand 50bps to 9.8% by FY20E over
9.3% in FY18E PAT PAT Margin (%)
31
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Manpasand
Coca-Cola Inc PepsiCo Inc Dr. Pepper Snapple Cott Corp National Beverage Co Varun Beverages
Beverages
FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E FY19E FY20E
Mcap (USD Bn) 43 191 152 21 2 4 77
CMP 422 44 109 121 14 93 645
Sales Growth (%) 35 40 -12 2.2 3.2 2.8 7.2 -1.3 3.7 2.0 13.9 13.2 15 10
PAT Growth (%) 36 46 15.2 15.8 7.1 7.2 10.5 -1.2 41 21 22.1 17.6 35 24
P/E (x) 32 23 21.0 18.2 17.7 16.4 22.6 19.9 32.6 22.0 22.6 19.3 33 27
PEG (x) 1.0 0.7 4.8 2.6 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.3 0.9
ROE (%) 10 13 36.1 36.4 61.5 54.1 43.9 46.3 NA NA NA NA 12.2 14.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 16 11 18.3 17.6 12.2 11.6 15.1 14.5 12.4 11.7 15.6 13.3 12.5 11.5
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Dec-17
Oct-16
Oct-17
Jun-16
Jun-17
Feb-17
Feb-18
Apr-16
Apr-17
Apr-18
Aug-16
Aug-17
We value MANB at 34x FY20E EPS given the growth prospects
and arrive at a price target of Rs. 528 (25% Upside)
Mar-16
Nov-16
Mar-17
Nov-17
Mar-18
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
May-16
May-17
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Growth % 69% 44% 24% 36% 46% Total Equity and Liabilities 661 1,234 1,316 1,440 1,656
Source: Company, Axis Securities
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
RM inflation: Medium
Key man risk: Medium In the last couple of years, it has
MANB’s MD has been the chief benefited in terms of lower input cost
strategist and thus lacks second line prices. In CY17, raw materials like
of management to manage complex sugar surged
operations spread across the If there is a sharp surge, it could
country impact margins in the near term
Single product: Low
Mango Sip forms 75% of revenues
even today. Though this has declined
from 98% in FY12
Diversified product basket (ethnic,
traditional drinks, Fruits UP)
36
Appendix : India Soft Drink Industry
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Soft Drinks Market Segmentation (by value) Soft Drink Volume market share (by volume)
Others
(Rs22bn), 4% Non-Cola Others Parle Bisleri
Cola Carbonates 25.3% 12.9%
Carbonates (Rs165bn),
(Rs111bn), 18% 27%
Dabur India
1.3%
Parle Agro
Bottled Water
4.9%
Juices
Cocal-Cola
(Rs142bn),
(Rs162bn), 27% PepsiCo 33.3%
24%
22.3%
Source: Industry Source: Industry
Top 18 brands in Total Soft Drink industry (by volume) Soft drink volume growth trend
Mkt Mkt 25%
Sl no Brand Sl no Brand
Share Share
20% 20% 19%
1 Bisleri # 12.9% 9 Limca * 3.1% 20%
17% 18%
2 Kinley * 6.9% 10 Slice ^ 3.1% 16%
15% 14%
3 Sprite * 6.7% 11 7-Up ^ 2.4% 15% 13%
4 Thums Up * 5.8% 12 Frooti @ 3.0% 9%
10%
5 Aquafina ^ 5.9% 13 Mountain Dew^ 2.2%
6 Pepsi ^ 4.5% 14 Fanta * 2.0% 5%
7 Maaza * 4.9% 15 Mirinda ^ 2.0%
8 Coca-Cola * 3.0% 16 Bailey @ 1.6% 0%
Source: Industry CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16
Source: Industry
Note: * owned by Coca-Cola; ^ Owned by Pepsi; # Owned by Parle Bisleri; ^^ Owned by Dabur India; @ Owned by Parle Agro
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Channel-wise soft beverage volume contribution Channel-wise soft beverage sales contribution
(mn litres) (Rs bn)
On-trade
(4,222 mn ltr); 31%
On-trade
(Rs 275 bn)
46%
Off-trade
(Rs 328
Off-trade bn) 54%
(9,352 mn ltr); 69%
Carbonates Carbonates
40% 60% 59% 41%
(4,927 mn litres) (Rs 276 bn)
0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 10 0% 0% 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 10 0%
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Carbonates market segmentation (by value) Cola carbonates volume (off trade) market share
Other Non-Cola Carbonates (by brand) Coca-Cola* ,
(Rs22bn), 8% Pepsi^, 33%
21%
Orange Carbonates
(Rs30bn), 11% Diet Coke*,
1%
Mixers, (Rs10bn), Diet Pepsi^,
4% Cola Carbonates 1%
(Rs111bn),
40%
Others, 4%
Non-cola carbonates volume (off-trade) market share (by brand) Carbonate volume growth trend
Carbonates Off-trade cola and non-cola
Others, 9% 20% 19% ~8% & ~10% volume CAGR
respectively over CY11-16
Evervess^, 3%
16%
Sprite*, 34% 13% 13%
Fanta*, 8% 12%
12% 11%
9%
9%
8%
Mirinda^, 9% Lemon ~60% of market; 8%
Orange ~20% of market 5%
4% 3%
7-Up^, 11%
Mountain Limca*, 15% 0%
Dew^, 11% CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16
Source: Industry
Source: Industry
Note * owned by Coca-Cola (60% market share); ^ Owned by Pepsi (35% market share)
Non-cola carbonates – On trade : Off trade = 39:61 Carbonate - On trade : Off-trade = 39:61
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Juices market segmentation (by value) Overall Juice market share (by player, in volume terms)
100% Juice Others
Manpasand
(Rs15bn), 9% Beverage 7%
3%
Nectars (25-
99% Juice) -
Dabur India
(Rs28bn), 17% 8% Coca-Cola India
34%
Juice drinks
Juices Mix (upto 24%
Mango ~85%; Parle Agro Pvt.
juice) -
Orange ~5%; Apple Ltd
~1% & Lemon ~5% (Rs119bn), 21% Pepsi Co India
Others ~4% 74%
27%
Source: Industry
Source: Industry
Juices market share (by brand, in volume terms) Volume growth trend
Minute Maid* Appy@ 7-Up^ Others Juices
30%
5% 2% 1% 7%
Mango Sip 26%
Mazza* 24%
3% 25% 23% 23%
31% 22%
19% 19% 20%
Tropicana^ 20% 17% 18%
5%
15%
Real^^
8% 10%
Slice^ 5%
Frooti@
20%
19%
0%
CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16
Note: *owned by Coca-Cola; ^ Owned by Pepsi;
Source: Industry;
^^ Owned by Dabur India; @ Owned by Parle Agro Source: Industry
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Off trade volume contribution Bottled water volume share continues to expand
Bottled Water Carbonates Juices
Non-Bulk
(2,313 mn 100%
11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16
litre) 36%
80%
49 46 44 41 39 37
60% 59 55 54 53
40%
Bulk 20% 40 42 44 46 48
30 33 33 35 37
(4,113 mn
litre) 0%
64% CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16
Source: Industry Source: Industry
Bottled Water market share (by brand, in volume terms) Volume growth trend
35% Bottled Water
Others Parle Bisleri 30%
38% (Bisleri) 28%
30%
27% 25%
24%
25% 22%
Himalayan (Tata 21%
20% 20%
Global Beverages 19% 19%
20%
Ltd)
1% 15%
Coca-Cola
UB Group 10%
(Kinley)
(Kingfisher)
15%
2% 5%
Dhariwal Inds Pepsi Co
Parle Agro 0%
(Oxyrich) (Aquafina)
(Bailey) CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16
2% 12%
3%
Source: Industry Source: Industry
Note: ^ Excluding institutional sales (over 20 litre pack which had a sales volume of10,069 mn liter in 2015) 42
18 Apr 2018 Company Report
West India with total sales volume of 4,184 mn litres (worth Territorial volume (mn litres)
Rs 181 bn) in CY15 is the largest soft drink market by
volume in India Sales volume (million l itres) - 2015
Market
North India with total sales volume of 4,104 mn litres Total Off Trade Share On Trade Share
(worth Rs 182 bn) is the second largest market in terms of North India 4,104 2,973 72% 1,132 28%
volume.
West India 4,184 2,523 60% 1,661 40%
East and North East has the lowest per capita consumption
due to limited presence on account of transportation in East and Northeast India 1,049 989 94% 60 6%
Source: Industry
Off-trade region-wise volume breakup (mn litres) Off-trade region-wise sales breakup (Rs bn)
East and North East East and North
East (Rs 32 bn),
(989 mn litres), North India
11%
11% (Rs 104
bn), 37%
North India
South India
(2,973 mn
South India (Rs 62
litres), 36%
(1940 mn bn), 22%
litres), 23%
West India
West India (Rs 85
(2,523 mn bn), 30%
litres), 30%
Source: Industry Source: Industry
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
Disclosures:
The following Disclosures are being made in compliance with the SEBI Research Analyst Regulations 2014 (herein after referred to as the Regulations).
1. Axis Securities Ltd. (ASL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000000297. ASL, the Research Entity (RE) as defined in the Regulations, is engaged in the business of
providing Stock broking services, Depository participant services & distribution of various financial products. ASL is a subsidiary company of Axis Bank Ltd. Axis Bank Ltd. is a listed public
company and one of India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of Asset management, NBFC, Merchant Banking, Trusteeship, Venture Capital,
Stock Broking, the details in respect of which are available on www.axisbank.com.
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Any holding in stock – No
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18 Apr 2018 Company Report
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Copyright in this document vests with Axis Securities Limited.
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