December 2017

Myanmar Business Survey #2

Significant drop in Myanmar investor confidence – a bump in the
road or a sign of more fundamental issues?
2 Roland Berger Focus – Myanmar Business Survey #2

Investors remain
confident about
Myanmar's long-term
opportunities.
However, short-term business sentiment drops
drastically from 73% a year ago to 49% now.

NOTE
The survey was conducted before the latest developments in Rakhine state,
which are likely to have further reduced investor confidence in Myanmar
 Myanmar Business Survey #2 – Roland Berger Focus 3

In December 2016, Roland Berger published the first
Myanmar business survey. The results showed an
enormous sense of optimism among both local and
international investors: 73% of business people ex-
pected the business landscape to (rapidly) improve.
This optimism, which was arguably unparalleled
worldwide, resulted from the political and economic
changes the country had recently undergone, includ-
ing economic reforms particularly in the telecom sec-
tor, democratic elections and a peaceful transition to
a new government led by Nobel Prize winner Aung
San Suu Kyi, as well as the subsequent lifting of US
sanctions.
To assess how this business sentiment has evolved since
then, Roland Berger launched the second Roland Berger
Myanmar Business Confidence Survey, conducted in
June-August 2017, this time in cooperation with the
Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Com-
merce and Industry (UMFCCI), the leading chamber of
commerce in the country.
This second survey captures the latest business senti-
ment of almost 500 owners and senior executives from
companies of all sizes (compared to 179 responses in the
2016 survey). In the latest survey, 61% of the respondents
are local companies (compared to 38% in 2016) and 39%
are international firms (compared to 62% in 2016).

A: Business confidence for the next 12 months.

How will Myanmar's economy and business landscape fare in the next 12 months?

0% 76%
1% 23% 68% 8%
2016
Local
0% 15% 35% 47% 3%
companies
2017

50%
0% 71%
7% 22% 62% 9%
2016
International
1% 15% 35% 45% 4%
companies
2017
Cover photo: iStockphoto / SeanPavonePhoto

49%
0% 73%
5% 22% 65% 8%
2016
All
1% 15% 35% 46% 3%
companies
2017

49%
Deteriorate rapidly Deteriorate slowly Remain the same Improve Improve rapidly
Source: Roland Berger Myanmar Business Confidence Survey 2016 and 2017
4 Roland Berger Focus – Myanmar Business Survey #2
A DRASTIC DECLINE IN SHORT-TERM OPTIMISM
The survey results show a drastic decline in short-term
business sentiment, with only 49% of executives expect-
ing the business landscape to (rapidly) improve within
the next 12 months, compared to 73% in 2016. The drop
is consistent across local companies (from 76% to 50%)
and international firms (from 71% to 49%). It should be
noted that the survey was conducted before the latest
developments in Rakhine state in August and Septem-
ber 2017, which is likely to have further reduced investor
confidence in Myanmar. A
The decline in business confidence cuts across all sec-
tors, with every industry reporting a drop in confi-
dence of between 14 percentage points (professional
services) and 32 percentage points (tourism). Given
the immense need for electric power, international
firms are most optimistic in the utilities and energy
sector (71%) and least optimistic in the retail & distri-
bution sector (43%), a market that is still mostly dom-
inated by local firms. Local firms on the other hand are
least optimistic in the construction and real estate
market, likely driven by Yangon's real estate market
slowdown and a lack of approvals of large infrastruc-
ture construction projects. B
The drop in investor confidence also goes hand in hand
with the stagnation of foreign direct investment (FDI) in
the country. FDI has only averaged USD 739 million per
month in the period April-August 2017, in line with 2016
but below levels recorded in 2015 and early 2016 and
down on the investments that were expected to flow in
after US sanctions were lifted. C
DROP IN INVESTOR CONFIDENCE DRIVEN BY
LACK OF COMPREHENSIVE AND CLEAR ECO-
NOMIC POLICY AND FRAMEWORK
All companies in Myanmar face a long list of issues and
difficulties. The four most significant ones are lack of
trained staff (found by 77% of companies to be a signif-
icant or very significant issue), no clear government eco-
nomic policy (77%), unpredictable legislative environ-
ment (72%) and selective and unpredictable enforce-
ment of regulations (72%). D
The lack of trained staff is a well-known problem for
companies and is nothing new – in fact, the issue has
decreased in importance compared to last year (-3 per-
centage points for international firms). In contrast, the
lack of a clear government economic policy has be-
come an increasing bottleneck for both local and espe-
cially international firms (+11 percentage points). It is
now found to be a significant challenge by 86% of the
international firms (of whom 53% find it a very signif-
icant challenge), and the number 1 challenge overall.
Hence, this is likely to be a root cause of the failure of
FDI to grow significantly.
THE GOVERNMENT HAS TAKEN POSITIVE STEPS
IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS, BUT COMPANIES
EXPECT MUCH MORE
It is not that companies do not appreciate the positive
economic steps the government has taken in the last 12
months. For example, the new Investment Law and
rules are found to have had a positive impact on the
business landscape by 64% of local companies and 62%
of international companies. Also, the further develop-
ment of the special economic zones (in particular Thila-
wa SEZ) is seen as a positive development. Improving
the rule of law is found to have positively impacted the
business landscape by 41% of international firms.
Naturally, the removal of US sanctions is also seen as a
very positive development for economic growth. E
In addition, companies believe that the government
has started to address the long-term fundamentals of
a sound economy. For example, 45% of companies
consider that corruption has reduced in the last 12
months. F
 Myanmar Business Survey #2 – Roland Berger Focus 5

B: Business confidence for the next 12 months by sector.

How will Myanmar's economy and business landscape fare in the next 12 months?

Local companies International companies All companies ∆ 2016-

17
0% 43% 7% 64% 4% 54%
Utilities, oil & gas
43% 71% 58% -22
and chemicals

9% 45% 10% 50% 10% 48%

Financial
54% 60% 58% -19
services

9% 55% 11% 44% 10% 48%

Professional
services 64% 55% 58% -14

0% 56% 0% 50% 0% 54%

Hotels &
56% 50% 54% -32
tourism

0% 55% 7% 36% 3% 47%

Telecom, media
55% 43% 50% -24
& technology

3% 39% 0% 43% 3% 40%

Retail &
42% 43% 43% -19
distribution

8% 30% 0% 53% 6% 37%

Construction &
38% 53% 43% -22
real estate

Improve rapidly Improve

Source: Roland Berger Myanmar Business Confidence Survey 2016 and 2017
6 Roland Berger Focus – Myanmar Business Survey #2

C: Foreign Direct Investment in Myanmar.

Foreign direct investment by permitted enterprises [monthly, USD million].

TOTAL: 9,483 TOTAL: 6,630 TOTAL: 3,695

[790 monthly average] [737 monthly average] [739 monthly
3,822
average]

2,296
2,230

2,025

1,038
973 1,029

656 706
614 586
534 552
427 379
268 317 320
228 229 266
146
70 82 2
0 0 0 15

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17

Source: DICA; Roland Berger

 Myanmar Business Survey #2 – Roland Berger Focus 7

D: Key challenges faced by companies in Myanmar.

How significant are the following business challenges for your company?

Local companies International companies All companies

Lack of trained 37% 35% 43% 40% 40% 37%

72% -11 83% -3 77% -7
staff

No clear government 34% 38% 53% 33% 42% 35%

72% 0 86% +11 77% +3
economic policy

Unpredictable legis- 24% 42% 44% 36% 33% 39%

66% -3 80% +3 72% -2
lative environment

Selective and unpre- 24% 40% 37% 43% 30% 42%

dictable enforce- 64% +5 80% +7 72% +5
ment of regulations

Rising labour 20% 53% 11% 49% 16% 51%

73% +3 60% -1 67% +2
costs

Too much 18% 42% 40% 33% 28% 38%

60% 0 73% +6 66% +2
administration

Kyat 36% 33% 26% 35% 31% 33%

69% +14 61% +6 64% +9
volatility

Restriction on access 28% 34% 22% 30% 25% 32%

62% +4 52% +9 57% +8
to financing

Market access 13% 41% 23% 37% 17% 39%

barriers/investment 54% +5 60% +2 56% +2
restrictions
Lack of intellectual 14% 36% 15% 30% 14% 33%
property rights 50% +12 45% -4 47% +3
protection

Administrative 8% 27% 16% 39% 12% 32%

35% -8 55% +12 44% +1
issues

Discrimination 7% 19% 18% 31% 12% 25%

against foreign 26% -2 49% +19 37% +8
companies
Difference compared Difference compared Difference compared
to 2016 to 2016 to 2016
Very significant Significant 
Source: Roland Berger Myanmar Business Confidence Survey 2016 and 2017
8 Roland Berger Focus – Myanmar Business Survey #2

E: Perception of government economic policies.

How have the following measures impacted business landscape in Myanmar?

Local companies International companies

18% 54% 24% 51%
Removal of US sanctions 72% 75%

New investment law 11% 53% 8% 54%

64% 62%
and rules
10% 50% 9% 62%
SEZ development 60% 71%

Transport policy/public invest- 6% 52% 1% 38%

58% 39%
ment in transport
Education policy/public invest- 9% 48% 2% 25%
57% 27%
ment in education/training
Healthcare policy/public 5% 46% 0% 28%
51% 28%
investment in healthcare
Improving the rule 4% 45% 2% 39%
49% 41%
of law
Focus on environmental 3% 35% 2% 21%
38% 23%
sustainability
Electric power policy/public 6% 30% 1% 25%
36% 26%
investment in electric power

Significant positive impact Some positive impact

F: Perception of corruption.
How do you think corruption has evolved in the last 12 months?
3% 7% 43% 43% 4%
Local
companies
47%
1% 8% 49% 40% 2%
International
companies
42%
2% 8% 45% 42% 3%
All
companies
45%
Deteriorate rapidly Deteriorate slowly Remain the same Improve Improve rapidly
Source: Roland Berger Myanmar Business Confidence Survey 2016 and 2017
 Myanmar Business Survey #2 – Roland Berger Focus 9

Companies are aware of the positive steps taken by the

government in terms of economic policy. The govern-
ment's 12-point economic guideline launched in July What is missing is the
2016 is a good example. Subsequently, several minis-
tries have clarified certain positions in their sector de- communication of an
overall economic trans-
velopments on an ad hoc basis. However, what the pri-
vate sector has been looking for and what is missing so
far is the communication of an overall economic trans-
formation roadmap, with clear targets, timeline and formation roadmap, with
quick wins, followed by clear, comprehensive and con-
sistent sector policies, at least for key sectors such as fi-
clear targets, timeline and
nancial services, electric power & energy, agriculture,
transport infrastructure, tourism and manufacturing.
quick wins, followed by
A myriad of reports by international organizations has
been issued, covering many of the above topics. Howev-
clear, comprehensive and
er, what the private sector seems to be looking for are
much more specific plans, endorsed by the government.
consistent sector policies,
Indeed, many companies are highly confident that the
government has the potential to boost economic growth.
at least for key sectors.
The most crucial government measure, as proposed by
the business community, is the provision of stable elec-
tricity supply (96%), not unexpected in a country where prehensiveness of economic policy and reforms (both in
only 35% of the population has access to electricity and breadth and depth), and the speed with which the pro-
companies face frequent black-outs. gram is implemented.
Other measures cited by companies are, as noted The good news is that the government can still count on
above, transparent policy making and implementation Myanmar's longer-term attractiveness, and the willingness
(95%), rule of law (94%), transportation infrastructure of companies – both local and international – to increase
(94%), simplification of licensing and regulatory pro- their investments … when the right conditions are in place.
cedures (92%), regulatory capacity building (90%),
financial sector reform (90%) and education reform BUSINESSES REMAIN BULLISH ABOUT
and training (88%). G MYANMAR'S LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
This is a long list of highly important measures to be Despite the short-term challenges that companies face
taken, but it is not an unusual one for a country such as in Myanmar, they remain bullish about the country's
Myanmar that has come out of isolation and is looking mid-to-long-term economic potential. 93% of local com-
at a major transformational change. Given the way polit- panies are either optimistic or very optimistic about
ical transformation has taken place, expectations for Myanmar's longer-term potential. The long-term confi-
economic transformation are similarly high – probably dence among international companies is lower (82%)
too high. That said, more is needed in terms of the com- than among local firms, but still very high. H
10 Roland Berger Focus – Myanmar Business Survey #2

G: Importance of potential government measures.

How important are the following government measures to boost economic growth?

Government measure 2017 ∆ 2016-

17
75% 21%
Stable electricity supply 96% +0

60% 35%
Transparent policy making and implementation 95% -2

60% 34%
Rule of law 94% -2

61% 33%
Transportation infrastructure construction 94% +2

47% 45%
Simplification of licensing and regulatory procedures 92% -2

47% 43%
Regulatory capacity building 90% -1

57% 33%
Financial sector reform 90% -1

47% 41%
Education reform and training 88% +3

47% 41%
Broadband infrastructure development 88% -6

36% 48%
Promoting fair competition 84% -7

40% 43%
Land reform 83% +6

32% 46%
Reform of state-owned enterprises and further liberalization 78% -1

37% 40%
Peace agreement 77% +4

27% 47%
Environmental policies and enforcement 74% +9

27% 44%
Healthcare reform 71% +6

Very important Important

Source: Roland Berger Myanmar Business Confidence Survey 2016 and 2017
 Myanmar Business Survey #2 – Roland Berger Focus 11

H: Optimism about Myanmar's mid- to long-term economic potential.

How confident are you regarding Myanmar's mid to long term economic potential?

Local 1% 6% 82% 11%

companies
93%

International 2% 16% 70% 12%

companies
82%

All 2% 10% 77% 11%

companies
88%

Very pessimistic Pessimistic Optimistic Very optimistic New question in 2017 survey – no comparison possible with 2016

I: Key reasons for international firms to have entered Myanmar.

What is the most important reason for entering the Myanmar market?1
∆ 2016-
17
37% 49%
Being one of the last "frontier" markets 86% +6
42% 43%
Large domestic market 85% +7
18% 49%
Myanmar governments’ commitment to liberalization 67% +0
12% 48%
Strategic location 60% -1
20% 34%
Possibility to "leapfrog" 54% -6
7% 33%
Legal and regulatory environment 40% +7
2% 28%
Competitive labour costs 30% -4
8% 22%
Availability of resources 30% -7

Very important Important 1 International firms only

Source: Roland Berger Myanmar Business Confidence Survey 2017
12 Roland Berger Focus – Myanmar Business Survey #2

Indeed, the reasons for companies to enter the Myan-

mar market are more fundamental in nature, such as
the country being one of the last frontier markets (86%), Low investor confidence
having a potentially large domestic market (85%) and
boasting a strategic location (60%). I has negatively impacted
COMPANIES IN MYANMAR STILL PLAN investment plans. And if
TO EXPAND AND INVEST, ALTHOUGH AT
A SLOWER PACE THAN LAST YEAR the root causes of the drop
A less dynamic economic development than expected
has led to a noticeable drop in satisfaction with compa-
in confidence are not
ny performance. In 2016, 58% of companies were either
satisfied or very satisfied with their performance in
swiftly addressed, this may
Myanmar. By 2017, this had dropped to 37%. J
Lower performance and less short-term confidence are
be just the beginning of a
also impacting investment plans, unsurprisingly. Com-
panies in Myanmar still plan to expand and invest, al-
potential downward spiral
though at a slower pace than last year. 79% of local
companies plan to expand operations (compared to
in confidence, investment,
90% last year), and 74% of international firms plan to
do so – a significant deterioration compared to 94%
and company performance.
last year.
And if the root causes of the drop in confidence are not
swiftly addressed, this may be just the beginning of a
potential downward spiral in confidence, investment,
and company performance. K
The lower investment plans translate into less hiring of
and investment in staff – which is a problem in that
more employment and training is something Myanmar
urgently needs for its economic transformation. Com-
panies plan to hire more staff and increase employee
numbers (66%), although less so (-14 percentage points)
than in 2016. 72% of companies plan to spend on train-
ing and employee development, given that lack of
trained staff is one of the biggest issues facing compa-
nies, but this also represents an 11 percentage point
drop from the previous year. L
 Myanmar Business Survey #2 – Roland Berger Focus 13

J: Assessment of company performance.

How do you view your company's performance in Myanmar?

61%
0%
6% 33% 44% 17%
2016
Local
companies 4% 10% 50% 30% 6%
2017

36%

56%
2%
11% 31% 43% 13%
2016
International
companies 5% 19% 38% 29% 9%
2017

38%

58%
1%
9% 32% 43% 15%
2016
All
companies 4% 14% 45% 30% 7%
2017

37%

Very discontent Discontent Average Satisfied Very satisfied

Source: Roland Berger Myanmar Business Confidence Survey 2016 and 2017
14 Roland Berger Focus – Myanmar Business Survey #2

K: Expansion plans of firms.

Are you planning to expand operations in Myanmar in the next 12 months?

90%
2% 8% 70% 20%
2016
Local
companies 1% 20% 62% 17%
2017

79%

94%
1%
5% 82% 12%
2016
International
companies 4% 22% 61% 13%
2017

74%

93%
1%
6% 78% 15%
2016
All
companies 2% 21% 62% 15%
2017

77%

Will scale back operations Will not expand Some expansion Aggressive expansion
Source: Roland Berger Myanmar Business Confidence Survey 2016 and 2017
 Myanmar Business Survey #2 – Roland Berger Focus 15

L: 12-month company expectation.

How do you think the following will change for your company in the next 12 months?

Local companies International companies All companies ∆ 2016-17

[percentage
points]
Spending on train- 20% 54% 13% 55% 17% 55%
ing and employee 74% 68% 72% -11
development
8% 64% 14% 43% 11% 55%
Increase number
72% 57% 66% -14
of employees

13% 55% 10% 38% 12% 48%

Investments 68% 48% 60% -14

10% 34% 0% 24% 6% 31%

Export volumes 44% 24% 54% -8

Increase rapidly Increase slightly

M: Threat of competition.
How much of a threat is competition to your business?

If you are a local company, 32% 49% 19%

how do you perceive the
competition from foreign
companies?
Competition from foreign Competition from foreign companies Competition from
companies is not threatening is somewhat threatening my business foreign companies
my business is highly threaten-
ing my business

If you are a foreign 22% 19% 59%

company, how do you
perceive the competition
from local companies?
Local companies are Local companies Local companies are competing,
successfully trans- are not but not very successfully
forming themselves competitive
and becoming increas-
ingly competitive

Source: Roland Berger Myanmar Business Confidence Survey 2016 and 2017
16 Roland Berger Focus – Myanmar Business Survey #2
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR
INTERNATIONAL FIRMS?
Overall, there has been a significant deterioration in
business confidence in Myanmar, among both local and
international investors.
For international investors, this means that Myanmar
may not yet be the investment opportunity it appeared
to be in 2015-2016. Myanmar is now one among many
investment destinations for international investors,
competing with other markets in Southeast Asia, such
as Vietnam and Indonesia.
International companies wishing to enter Myanmar
need to be aware of the many challenges they will be
facing. One of the key issues multinationals will en-
counter is the difficulty of finding experienced employ-
ees. Indeed, only 13% of Myanmar's working population
has a high school education or university degree.
The only short-term solution to address the lack of expe-
rienced employees is to invest in targeted training. Al-
though many companies are reluctant to do so, citing
the high turnover rate in Myanmar (~80% of employees
in Myanmar stay with a company less than 3 years),
there is simply no alternative to training. Moreover,
training is a mechanism to retain good employees. In-
ternational firms should not be frustrated by the lack of
experienced people. Rather, they should invest in train-
ing and tap into the Myanmar people's motivation.
The lack of a clear government economic policy is
more difficult for multinationals to address and is
more critical in sectors like infrastructure than in sec-
tors such as light manufacturing. Multinationals
should therefore engage with the government directly
rather than waiting for policies or projects to be com-
municated to them. The lack of economic policy also
presents an opportunity to influence policy and share
investment proposals directly with the government.
Maintaining an impeccable reputation is critical for
this to be successful.
There is one other aspect that may favor entering sooner
rather than later, despite all the obstacles. This is the
fact that local competition is not yet well prepared to
face players operating on an international level. 59% of
international firms believe that local firms are not com-
peting successfully and a further 19% believe that local
firms are not yet competitive enough. M
This notion is reinforced by the current belief of about
70% of international firms that they can enter and oper-
ate by themselves rather than working with local part-
ners/JVs.
Overall, multinationals in Myanmar should be in it for
the long run, with a well-defined strategy. However, giv-
en the rapidly changing environment, any multination-
al must be flexible along the way and look to tap into any
opportunities that may arise.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR LOCAL
CONGLOMERATES?
Local large conglomerates are clearly in a tough spot.
Traditional sources of revenue have dried up, new mar-
kets are developing only slowly, and they will be working
under new and more competitive rules.
In addition, the local conglomerates are faced with in-
creasing international competitors and liberalization of
key sectors. 68% of local firms believe that competition
from foreign companies is threatening their business,
of whom 19% even believe it is threatening their busi-
ness "greatly". And about 60% of local companies would
like to partner with foreign firms, though their interest
is not yet reciprocated.
Some local conglomerates may not survive this challenge.
The ones that do will have successfully shifted from their
traditional businesses of trading and public sector con-
tracts. Such a strategic shift in business activities needs
to be accompanied by a transformation in terms of cul-
ture, customer focus, skills, corporate governance, re-
porting, speed of decision making and execution, etc.
 Myanmar Business Survey #2 – Roland Berger Focus 17

WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR THE MYANMAR

GOVERNMENT? – A CALL FOR ACTION!
The Investment Law and other new or revised regula- With a clearer economic
tions have been an important step forward. But more
needs to be done, faster! policy, Myanmar will be
able to tap into the
An example illustrating the importance of this mantra is
Myanmar's recent unexpected slip in the World Bank's
2018 "Ease of doing business" ranking: the country
moved from 170th to 171st spot and is still ranked last financing that can be
among ASEAN nations. This despite targeted efforts by
the government to move up the rankings. But it is a com-
attracted to the country
petitive game, and other nations have apparently done
more, such as Thailand, which with a similar approach
and create jobs for the
moved up 20 spots to a remarkable 26th place globally
and third in ASEAN! Similarly, Indonesia moved up 19
Myanmar people.
spots, and Vietnam rose 14 spots.
The Myanmar government will need to come up with a
more comprehensive economic reform agenda that in-
cludes a roadmap and concrete projects.
The business community is not expecting detailed stud-
ies or reports on economic policy, but rather a clear
agenda with quick wins to restore lost confidence and a
balanced longer-term roadmap so that executives can
make investment decisions.
With a clearer economic policy, Myanmar will be able to
tap into the financing that can be attracted to the coun-
try and create jobs for the Myanmar people. Based on
our interactions with multinationals, significant pock-
ets of investment can be deployed in Myanmar – but
only if the government creates the right framework and
opportunities to do so.
It is our firm belief that stronger sustainable economic
growth will also facilitate other government priorities,
such as healthcare, education and the peace process.
So "more and faster" will hopefully be the motto for the
government's economic agenda in 2018.
18 Roland Berger Focus – Myanmar Business Survey #2

Credits and copyright

WE WELCOME YOUR QUESTIONS, COMMENTS

AND SUGGESTIONS

AUTHORS

Thomas Klotz
Managing Partner, Southeast Asia
+65 6597-4550
thomas.klotz@rolandberger.com

Damien Dujacquier
Senior Partner
+65 6597-4532
damien.dujacquier@rolandberger.com

Dieter Billen
Principal
+60 3 2203-8615
dieter.billen@rolandberger.com

This publication has been prepared for general guidance only. The reader should not act according to any
information provided in this publication without receiving specific professional advice. Roland Berger GmbH
shall not be liable for any damages resulting from any use of the information contained in the publication.

© 2017 ROLAND BERGER GMBH. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

 Myanmar Business Survey #2 – Roland Berger Focus 19

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