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IN SOUTHEAST
ASIA
eMarketer’s Estimates and Forecast
for 2016–2021
OCTOBER 2017
Corey McNair
Contributor: Shelleen Shum
Read this on
eMarketer for iPad
AD SPENDING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND
FORECAST FOR 2016–2021
This report covers eMarketer’s latest estimates for ad spending in select Southeast Asia markets including
Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Together, digital ad spending in those
countries will total $2.05 billion by the end of 2017, an increase of 21.8%, driven by expanding ecommerce and
mobile activity.
7.0%, respectively, in 2017. Vietnam 16.0% 18.4% 20.6% 22.5% 23.6% 24.2%
Indonesia 14.9% 17.1% 18.8% 20.2% 21.7% 23.1%
■■ Digital advertising—especially mobile—will be primarily Southeast Asia 16.3% 19.1% 21.6% 23.5% 25.0% 26.1%
responsible for overall ad growth, since mobile is Note: includes advertising that appears on desktop and laptop computers
as well as mobile phones, tablets and other internet-connected devices,
the point of entry for internet access across most of and includes all the various formats of advertising on those platforms;
excludes SMS, MMS and P2P messaging-based advertising
Southeast Asia. eMarketer expects digital ad spend to Source: eMarketer, Sep 2017
increase “nearly 22.0% and mobile to increase 77.0%. 231145 www.eMarketer.com
■■ Mobile’s share of digital advertising in Singapore, KEY STAT: In these six Southeast Asian countries, digital
Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia and will account for nearly 20% of total ad spending this year.
Vietnam will range from 36.6% to 51.6% this year. By the end of the forecast period, digital will represent at
Mobile will continue to gain in significance throughout least one-quarter of paid media.
the forecast period, accounting for at least 60% of
digital ad spend in each market by 2021. Behind the Numbers
■■ Ecommerce’s success in Southeast Asia has influenced eMarketer’s forecasts and estimates are based on
digital ad spend budgets in these countries. This is an analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from
especially true in Thailand, where ecommerce giants research firms, government agencies, media firms and
like JD.com and Alibaba compete with each other. By public companies, plus interviews with top executives
2019, Thailand’s digital share of total paid media will at publishers, ad buyers and agencies. Data is weighted
based on methodology and soundness. Each eMarketer
surpass that of Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines.
forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts,
WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report includes forecasts with the same assumptions and general framework used
for total media ad spending, digital ad spending and to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular re-
evaluation of available data means the forecasts reflect
mobile ad spending for six Southeast Asia markets. The
the latest business developments, technology trends and
full data set for this forecast can be found in this report’s
economic changes.
accompanying spreadsheet.
AD SPENDING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2
SOUTHEAST ASIA OVERVIEW the country will spur double-digit growth throughout
the forecast period. Come 2019, digital’s share will
reach 24.8%—higher than in Malaysia, Vietnam or
Government investment in mobile broadband
the Philippines.
infrastructure across Southeast Asia has helped to
drive smartphone adoption over the past few years.
Digital Ad Spending in Select Countries in Southeast
With this leap in usage, advertisers have started to Asia, 2016-2021
concentrate digital ad spending on mobile devices. millions and % change
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
However, all countries covered in the region will Digital ad spending (millions)
experience total media ad spend growth this year, Indonesia $385.0 $481.3 $567.9 $653.1 $751.1 $844.9
eMarketer estimates. As a whole, paid media ad Thailand $331.5 $414.4 $497.3 $571.9 $629.1 $673.1
spending in Southeast Asia will rise 4.3% in 2017 to reach Singapore $317.6 $374.7 $431.0 $474.0 $497.8 $517.7
AD SPENDING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3
Mobile Ad Spending in Select Countries in Southeast Singapore will see low, single-digit gains as they’re helped
Asia, 2016-2021 by global recovery in export demand, improving the
millions and % change economy as a whole.
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Mobile ad spending (millions)
Singapore
Indonesia
$113.8 $193.4
$102.7 $184.9
$299.8
$295.9
$362.8
$378.7
$402.7
$454.5
$422.8
$527.2 INDONESIA
Thailand $105.6 $173.1 $277.0 $387.8 $430.5 $464.9
Demand for Indonesia’s leading export—coal—slowed
Philippines $61.9 $123.8 $198.1 $247.6 $277.3 $305.1
during Q2 2017, but overall demand has been strong.
Malaysia $62.7 $106.6 $159.9 $207.9 $233.9 $249.6
Investments in infrastructure, reduced government
Vietnam $38.5 $77.1 $138.7 $194.2 $215.5 $231.7
Southeast Asia $485.2 $859.0 $1,369.4 $1,779.0 $2,014.4 $2,201.2
regulation and improving consumer confidence in general
Mobile ad spending growth (% change)
have also been responsible for the economy’s growth.
Philippines 150.0% 100.0% 60.0% 25.0% 12.0% 10.0%
Vietnam 128.0% 100.0% 80.0% 40.0% 11.0% 7.5% Indonesia remains the largest ad market in Southeast
Indonesia 150.0% 80.0% 60.0% 28.0% 20.0% 16.0% Asia, with paid media outlays reaching an estimated $2.81
Malaysia 75.0% 70.0% 50.0% 30.0% 12.5% 6.7% billion in 2017, or 26.1% of the region. Primarily due to
Singapore 80.0% 70.0% 55.0% 21.0% 11.0% 5.0% its improving economy, Indonesia’s total media ad spend
Thailand 79.0% 64.0% 60.0% 40.0% 11.0% 8.0% growth will be 8.8% in 2017—the highest of any country
Southeast Asia 101.5% 77.0% 59.4% 29.9% 13.2% 9.3% included in eMarketer’s forecast for Southeast Asia.
Note: includes display (banners, video and rich media) and search; excludes
SMS, MMS and P2P messaging-based advertising; includes ad spending on
tablets
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2017 Total Media, Digital and Mobile Ad Spending in
231102 www.eMarketer.com Indonesia, 2016-2021
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Growth will be most pronounced during the forecast in
Total media ad $2.59 $2.81 $3.02 $3.24 $3.46 $3.67
Vietnam and the Philippines: In those countries, mobile’s spending* (billions)
share of digital ad spend between 2017 and 2021 will jump —% change 9.0% 8.8% 7.5% 7.2% 6.8% 6.0%
from 36.6% to 68.3% and 27.4% to 61.1%, respectively. Digital ad spending** $385.0 $481.3 $567.9 $653.1 $751.1 $844.9
(millions)
—% change 30.0% 25.0% 18.0% 15.0% 15.0% 12.5%
Investment in mobile ad formats is driving digital
—% of total media 14.9% 17.1% 18.8% 20.2% 21.7% 23.1%
advertising growth in Singapore. This year, more than ad spending
half (51.6%) of digital ad spend will come from mobile— Mobile ad spending*** $102.7 $184.9 $295.9 $378.7 $454.4 $527.2
the highest share in the region. This coincides with (millions)
—% change 150.0% 80.0% 60.0% 28.0% 20.0% 16.0%
Singapore’s mobile phone penetration of 83.7%.
—% of digital 26.7% 38.4% 52.1% 58.0% 60.5% 62.4%
ad spending
—% of total media 4.0% 6.6% 9.8% 11.7% 13.1% 14.4%
Mobile Ad Spending Share in Select Countries in ad spending
Southeast Asia, 2016-2021
Note: converted at the exchange rate of US$1=IDR13,302.70; *includes
% of digital ad spending digital (desktop/laptop, mobile and other internet-connected devices),
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 directories, magazines, newspapers, out-of-home, radio and TV; **includes
advertising that appears on desktop and laptop computers as well as
Singapore 35.8% 51.6% 69.6% 76.5% 80.9% 81.7% mobile phones, tablets and other internet-connected devices, and includes
all the various formats of advertising on those platforms; excludes SMS,
Malaysia 30.6% 44.0% 57.9% 69.7% 74.0% 75.2% MMS and P2P messaging-based advertising; ***includes display (banners,
Thailand 31.8% 41.8% 55.7% 67.8% 68.4% 69.1% video and rich media) and search; excludes SMS, MMS and P2P
messaging-based advertising; includes ad spending on tablets
Indonesia 26.7% 38.4% 52.1% 58.0% 60.5% 62.4% Source: eMarketer, Sep 2017
Vietnam 22.5% 36.6% 55.3% 67.4% 68.0% 68.3% 231150 www.eMarketer.com
Philippines 22.4% 27.4% 51.4% 57.3% 59.4% 61.1%
Note: includes display (banners, video and rich media) and search; excludes
Free-to-air TV will be the largest contributor to Indonesia’s
SMS, MMS and P2P messaging-based advertising; includes ad spending on ad spend market. By the end of this year, it will account
tablets
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2017 for an estimated 61.0% of ad investment, equating to
231103 www.eMarketer.com $1.72 billion. Though the cost of TV ads in Indonesia is
Mobile and digital formats will continue to propel paid among the lowest in the world—primarily due to an
media ad spending growth across Southeast Asia abundance of inventory—TV ad spend will grow 7.5%
over the next few years. Healthy growth of paid media in 2017. Indonesia’s TV market continues to benefit
advertising in Indonesia will also propel this increase. from wide reach and high viewership of popular
Meanwhile, export-heavy economies like Malaysia and homegrown shows.
AD SPENDING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4
Spending in digital ads will remain far behind that of TV, Total Media, Digital and Mobile Ad Spending in
capturing 17.1% of the ad market, or $481.3 million. This is Malaysia, 2016-2021
primarily due to slow connection speeds and low internet 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
penetration, estimated at just 38.7% of the population Total media ad $1.21 $1.23 $1.24 $1.25 $1.26 $1.26
spending* (billions)
this year. However, the government has pledged to
—% change 1.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5%
invest $1.5 billion toward building high-speed internet
Digital ad spending** $205.2 $242.2 $276.1 $298.1 $316.0 $331.8
connections, which would encourage further smartphone (millions)
uptake and mobile ad opportunities. As a result, digital ad —% change 20.0% 18.0% 14.0% 8.0% 6.0% 5.0%
growth will climb throughout the forecast, rising to 23.1% —% of total media 17.0% 19.7% 22.3% 23.9% 25.2% 26.3%
ad spending
by 2021.
Mobile ad spending*** $62.7 $106.6 $159.9 $207.9 $233.9 $249.6
(millions)
Digital advertising in the country has also been stymied —% change 75.0% 70.0% 50.0% 30.0% 12.5% 6.7%
by a lack of inventory, especially for video, outside of —% of digital 30.6% 44.0% 57.9% 69.7% 74.0% 75.2%
Facebook and Google. What inventory is available carries ad spending
—% of total media 5.2% 8.7% 12.9% 16.6% 18.6% 19.8%
concerns for advertisers due to a lack of viewability ad spending
guidelines. It is worth noting that Instagram has seen Note: converted at the exchange rate of US$1=MYR4.14; *includes digital
significant growth in Indonesia—its largest market in (desktop/laptop, mobile and other internet-connected devices), directories,
magazines, newspapers, out-of-home, radio and TV; **includes advertising
Asia-Pacific—with 45 million active monthly users, that appears on desktop and laptop computers as well as mobile phones,
tablets and other internet-connected devices, and includes all the various
according to the company. formats of advertising on those platforms; excludes SMS, MMS and P2P
messaging-based advertising; ***includes display (banners, video and rich
media) and search; excludes SMS, MMS and P2P messaging-based
Print newspapers, the second largest ad channel in advertising; includes ad spending on tablets
Indonesia, will represent 18.1% of total ad spending this Source: eMarketer, Sep 2017
231151 www.eMarketer.com
year. However, recent data suggests that digital is eating
into newspaper’s traditional share. Come 2018, all digital eMarketer estimates digital ad spending in Malaysia
formats together will overtake newspapers as the No. 2 will rise 18.0% to $242.2 million by the end of this
ad category. For magazines, the format is essentially flat, year, representing nearly one-fifth of total ad spend.
with a share of 1.9% in 2017 that will taper off to 1.3% Improved broadband connections have enabled regular
in 2020. video viewing among a growing digital video audience.
According to the Kantar TNS “Connected Life” study
published in late 2016, around 80% of internet users said
MALAYSIA they watch free digital video and social media video every
day. By 2021, more than one-quarter of ad investments
Malaysia’s export business experienced solid growth will be dedicated to digital formats, eMarketer estimates.
in 2017, driving overall economic improvement and
consumer confidence. This year, the country also hosted In response to the shift to digital, traditional media
the Southeast Asian Games and is now prepping for a advertisers are reconfiguring their business models. For
potential 2018 election. These and other factors were example, digital out-of-home (DOOH) advertising has
expected to spur total media ad spending to $1.23 billion seen rising interest. Billboards, posters and theaters’
in 2017, a 1.5% increase. wide reach, along with the ability to insert multiple
ads per location for short periods of time, has made
them increasingly viable for reaching Malaysia’s dense
urban population.
AD SPENDING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5
Advertisers in Malaysia will increase mobile spend 70.0% Video viewing is becoming increasingly popular among
in 2017, reaching $106.6 million. As a share of digital residents in the Philippines, but limited internet access
advertising, mobile will account for 44.0%, up from has stymied its potential impact on TV watching. Because
30.6% in 2016. By 2021, mobile alone will represent of this, digital has affected print more than TV.
19.8% of total media ad spending.
Mobile is an increasingly large influence in digital
advertising across the country. Spending will double in
AD SPENDING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6
Total Media, Digital and Mobile Ad Spending in However, traditional media is ceding some ad spend
Singapore, 2016-2021 to digital. A September 2017 survey from Cable and
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Satellite Broadcasting Association of Asia (CASBAA)
Total media ad $1.56 $1.57 $1.58 $1.60 $1.61 $1.63 found that 39% of respondents illegally stream or
spending* (billions) download movies, TV shows or live sports. Another
—% change -1.0% 0.5% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 14% indicated that they use a TV box to stream such
Digital ad spending** $317.6 $374.7 $430.9 $474.0 $497.7 $517.7
(millions)
content. With online streaming becoming so common
—% change 19.0% 18.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 4.0%
in Singapore, TV companies are attempting to jump in
—% of total media 20.3% 23.8% 27.2% 29.6% 30.8% 31.8% with video-on-demand (VOD) services. Last year, for
ad spending example, Mediacorp launched over-the-top (OTT) video
Mobile ad spending*** $113.8 $193.4 $299.8 $362.8 $402.7 $422.8 service Toggle.
(millions)
—% change 80.0% 70.0% 55.0% 21.0% 11.0% 5.0%
—% of digital 35.8% 51.6% 69.6% 76.5% 80.9% 81.7%
ad spending
—% of total media 7.3% 12.3% 18.9% 22.7% 25.0% 26.0%
THAILAND
ad spending
According to the National Economic and Social
Note: converted at the exchange rate of US$1=SGD 1.38; *includes digital
(desktop/laptop, mobile and other internet-connected devices), directories, Development Board, Thailand had its fastest economic
magazines, newspapers, out-of-home, radio and TV; **includes advertising
that appears on desktop and laptop computers as well as mobile phones, growth in four years during Q2 2017, with GDP rising
tablets and other internet-connected devices, and includes all the various 3.7%. Like other countries in Southeast Asia, Thailand is
formats of advertising on those platforms; excludes SMS, MMS and P2P
messaging-based advertising; ***includes display (banners, video and rich benefiting from the global recovery in trade.
media) and search; excludes SMS, MMS and P2P messaging-based
advertising; includes ad spending on tablets
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2017 eMarketer estimates that total media ad spending in
231158 www.eMarketer.com
the country will approach $2.23 billion by the end of this
Digital ad formats will increase 18.0% in 2017 to reach year, growing 2.1%. The November 2016 death of King
$374.7 million, accounting for 23.8% of total advertising. Bhumibol Adulyadej and a 30-day national moratorium
Programmatic ad development and mobile investment are on state events were responsible for the slightly higher
primarily responsible for digital’s growth in the market. growth compared with the prior year (1.5%).
AD SPENDING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 7
Thailand is seeing positive returns from the government’s eMarketer estimates that total media ad spend in Vietnam
2016 fiscal stimulus package, launched to fund will reach $1.15 billion in 2017, a 7.0% increase over 2016
infrastructure projects—primarily in rural areas—and and well above the average regional growth of 4.3%.
spur domestic consumption. In addition, Thailand’s daily Digital advertising is adding to that strong growth, rising
minimum wages increased as of January 2017, the first 23.0% to $210.6 million.
such increase in four years.
Total Media, Digital and Mobile Ad Spending in
The stimulus and wage growth are occurring as Vietnam, 2016-2021
ecommerce is taking off in Thailand. JD.com, the second 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
largest ecommerce platform in China, plans to launch
Total media ad $1.07 $1.15 $1.21 $1.28 $1.35 $1.40
in the country by the end of 2017. In September, the spending* (billions)
ecommerce giant agreed to a joint venture with top —% change 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.0%
homegrown retailer Central Group to increase its potential Digital ad spending** $171.2 $210.6 $250.6 $288.2 $317.0 $339.2
(millions)
reach. Likewise, Tencent has identified Thailand as a
—% change 33.0% 23.0% 19.0% 15.0% 10.0% 7.0%
market for sales growth, based on the large number of
—% of total media 16.0% 18.4% 20.6% 22.5% 23.6% 24.2%
high-spending Chinese tourists and Chinese-speaking ad spending
transplants. Even outside of Bangkok, ecommerce Mobile ad spending*** $38.5 $77.1 $138.7 $194.2 $215.5 $231.7
(millions)
shipment centers have been built to reach provinces like
—% change 128.0% 100.0% 80.0% 40.0% 11.0% 7.5%
Nonthaburi and Chonburi.
—% of digital spending 22.5% 36.6% 55.% 67.4% 68.0% 68.3%
—% of total media 3.6% 6.7% 11.4% 15.2% 16.0% 16.6%
Social commerce’s success in Thailand is primarily ad spending
responsible for the high interest in ecommerce overall. Note: converted at the exchange rate of US$1=VND22,369.12; *includes
digital (desktop/laptop, mobile and other internet-connected devices),
According to a May 2017 Electronics Transaction directories, magazines, newspapers, out-of-home, radio and TV; **includes
Development Agency study, nearly half of social media advertising that appears on desktop and laptop computers as well as
mobile phones, tablets and other internet-connected devices, and includes
users (estimated at 32.6 million by eMarketer, or all the various formats of advertising on those platforms; excludes SMS,
MMS and P2P messaging-based advertising; ***includes display (banners,
46.1% of the population) have purchased an item via video and rich media) and search; excludes SMS, MMS and P2P
social platforms. messaging-based advertising; includes ad spending on tablets
Source: eMarketer, Sep 2017
231161 www.eMarketer.com
The ecommerce boom is expected to drive digital ad
spend growth of 25.0%—the fastest in the region—to As in Thailand, ecommerce has become incredibly
reach $414.4 million, or 18.5% of total advertising. By popular in Vietnam, one byproduct of improving internet
2021, digital’s share of total media will be larger than in connection and consumer confidence. Digital buyers are
Malaysia, Vietnam or the Philippines. purchasing primarily via the ecommerce platform Lazada
and social networks like Facebook.
Mobile will account for 41.8% of digital ad dollars,
equating to $173.1 million. Thailand has some of the To target these consumers, brands have spent millions
fastest broadband speeds in the region, and this is toward digital platforms like Facebook and YouTube.
especially true of mobile. In addition, since mobile devices However, earlier this year the country’s communist
tend to be the point of entry for internet access in the government called for YouTube to take down several
country, mobile ad spending will increase 64.0%. videos it said were slanderous and “distorted historical
facts about Vietnam that could stir public unrest.” Later,
Vietnam asked that all companies doing business in the
AD SPENDING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8
spend will go to mobile. This is not too surprising, given
that Vietnam is still developing its infrastructure to support
EDITORIAL AND
extensive mobile internet access. Mobile advertising will PRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS
reach $77.1 million in 2017, representing a 100% increase
over the year prior, albeit from a small base. Michael Balletti Copy Editor
Katie Hamblin Chart Editorial Manager
Dana Hill Director of Production
Eden Kelley Senior Chart Editor
Stephanie Meyer Senior Production Artist
Heather Price Managing Editor, Reports
John Rambow Executive Editor, Reports
Erica Walker Copy Editor
AD SPENDING IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES AND FORECAST FOR 2016–2021 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 9
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